Open 218: Two-fold C9 - Game Over

[ODDin]

vote: XScorpion

That's my own special way of saying "well, hello to you too"

[ODDin]

chronopie, what's with the scorpion hate?

[ODDin]

Huh, I remember you playing fairly decent in the game I played with you. Care to link me to the game you're talking about? (Unless it's ongoing, that is.)

[ODDin]

Chrono does act a little defensive here.
First game meta is also valid meta, even if perhaps somewhat less useful than meta from later games. Plus, it's not like you've got tons of games behind your belt...

vote: chronopie

Better than a random vote.

[ODDin]

vote: chronopie
Better than a random vote.

Scummy bandwagoning propaganda.

Your vote really isn't better than a random vote.

Why not? Being unnecessarily defensive is a scumtell.

eas: why do you "feel the need to change your vote"? Also, what's the idea of switching from one random vote to another random vote?

[ODDin]

Good. I'm happy to know you are town.

Unvote[/b

That's interesting to know. Care to share it with the rest of us?

[ODDin]

I don't share your feelings, and I don't see why you need to unvote so quickly.

unvote
Vote: Easjo

I don't like easjo's reasons for voting, and playing like a VI with "voices in your head" makes me suspicious.
[/hypocrisy]

I don't see any problem with Oddins vote, should I?

You should, because you just said that you were voting for inhim because "he came up with a reason to switch his vote in RVS which as we all know is the single most scummy thing ever," which ODDin did first.

I see a need to change my vote,

also no real reason for switching my vote.

Self-contradiction is a scumtell.

You're trying too hard. eas' actions feel to me like he's trying to joke around. Don't really see a deep scum motive behind them.

Not so fast, my friend!

I did not jump on ODDin because he placed a "serious vote." I voted ODDin because he claimed his vote was

better

than a random vote. I would have been OK with "more than a random vote" or "finally, something besides a random vote" but "better"? No, that's dishonest.

And you're trying a little too hard as well. Serious votes are "better" than not serious votes, as far as I'm concerned, because a good vote is a vote based on good arguments.

[ODDin]

Starting bandwagons isn't inherently scummy, as they are the town's main tool.

However

, when I read ODDin's post, I thought he was using devious means to get others to join the bandwagon.

Ooh yeah, I was certainly being devious. As devious as it gets.
Seriously, do you actually think that scum-me sat down and thought "hmm, yeah, I'm gonna use the word 'better' and that's gonna make the whole town follow me blindly onto the wagon"? How does that even make sense?

Also, I don't quite see how the setup makes sandman's actions any more intriguing than usual.
Although he is, I think, digging too much into things, like lots of people here. People really need to sit back and ask themselves "hey, do I actually think that scum-X sat and plotted and decided to do what he did as part of his scum strategy?"
This is, for instance, why I think scorp's argument on eas is pretty crappy. It doesn't really make sense for scum-eas to fool around any more than it does for town-eas.

[ODDin]

Keep in mind that we have 4 scum in this game. Less people to trust, etc. Not only that, but you can't really look for affiliations because of the 2 factions.

Why not? There are still two pairs, so you can still look for connections between the pairs. It's just that if you reach a conclusion that "no way these two are a scum team", they can still both be scum of different teams.

I'm gonna try asking questions. It got the ball rolling into a good discussion back when Netopalis used them in my first newbie game. (I still disagree with questions like "are you nervous?")

It's as if you're going out of your way to help the town and get the game out of the RVS... when we're already out of it.

1. How long have you been playing Mafia? (inside and outside MS)
2. How would you describe your meta?
3. What's your win/loss record?
4. Favorite setup?
5. What do you think is the biggest scum tell?
6. How do you make your decisions?

1. Umm, first time I played mafia in a forum about... 5 years ago, maybe. Since then I played in that other forum and in real life. On MS, you can see in my join date.
2. Hmm. I think the games in which I was scum were the games where I was least suspected, funnily enough. I can sometime get lazy and lose interest in games (especially since I've got lots of work with my studies), which is why I've decided to play only one game at a time, which helped me be more active. So, I guess I play a lot better when I'm only playing in one game at a time.
Scorpion is the only one here who's played with me before (a game where I was scum). Maybe he can tell more.
But, you can help yourself to my wiki and read my games.
3. 4 wins, 6 losses.
4. Umm, I haven't played too many games, but I think I'd go with the setup of the Zombies game I was in. Playing cult proved surprisingly fun, even though I lost.
5. Consciously lying, although that's a somewhat cheap answer. (I might as well say "claiming scum".) Other than that... giving in under pressure, I'd say.
6. Well, my last two games brought me to the conclusion that I'm probably not too good in making my conclusions, since I was embarrassingly wrong with most of my cases there. I think I'm going to try an approach of trying to create a behavioural picture of each player, and judge how all their actions fall into place under various assumptions, rather than look on tells in a more isolated fashion, which is more how I approached it previously.
I was also pretty impressed by iLord's play in Zombies, who made some amazingly correct conclusions based on judging others "behaviourally". So, I think I'll try to mimic that too (and probably fail miserably ).

[ODDin]

EBWOP: There are still two pairs, so you can still look for connections

between

within the pairs.

[ODDin]

Actually, I've tried playing VI as scum before. It tends to create a lot of useful WIFOM and is especially useful when there are no cops to investigate you (as may be the case in this game), and becomes even more powerful when people like you start defending it. His play should be discouraged, because having a VI on later days of the game is very dangerous.

There are cop-type roles in this game. There might not be, but I wouldn't say it's something to base your strategy on.
But the main thing is, there's no evidence he's a VI (yet). He's been acting silly in the RVS. I've seen lots of people act completely silly in the RVS and then turn serious when the RVS was over.
I completely agree that being a VI should be discouraged, and that VIs are better off lynched early. It's just that joking around in the RVS isn't a VI-tell.


Beefster:
1) You're ignoring current events. What you did was turn the discussion into a completely new avenue - and not a terribly useful one. You see the results in chronopie answering your questions and completely ignoring what was going on before in the game. (I'll get to it yet.)
And no, we weren't running on fuel off the RVS, there was already some pretty serious discussion going on.
This is scummy, because it seems like you were trying to divert attention off the unfolding events. (Which were mostly revolving around me, inhim and sandman. And since I know I'm town, that leaves me with inhim and sandman, so I'm going to keep a closer eye on these two.)

2) Saying "I suspect ODDin and inhim" is hardly useful. Why do you find each of us suspicious? Looks to me like you're just playing safe by throwing some names of people who were already accused by others without actually thinking about it much. This is not scumhunting.

Due to these two,

FoS: beefster

3)

@ODDin on giving into pressure: care to elaborate?
I would think that anyone would at least respond to pressure. Nobody wants to be lynched, right?
Do you mean giving in as in claiming scum? (I did that in my first game (as scum), but only because I shot myself in the foot one too many times.)

What I mean is getting angry and losing your cool when under pressure. Experienced town should be able to keep calm under pressure - they don't need to lie about anything or hide anything, they can just say everything the way it is because they know they're town.
Although I have seen even experienced town completely lose their cool under pressure and flip out. But I still think it's a very strong tell.

4) You ignored what I said about looking for connections to find scum.


chronopie: Care to comment about other things? There are people being accused, votes and FoSs thrown around, but you do nothing but answer beef's questions and disappear.

This is why I still like my vote where it is.

[ODDin]

Hmm, not much new going on.
I think I'll reread the thread later on (not much work, luckily) and see if I come up with anything.

Meanwhile, I really think scorp is trying way too hard with eas. Yeah, she first said she sees a need to change her vote and then said there was no reason to it. She also said that the "need" to change her vote was told to her by the voices in her head, and she admitted that both votes were random.
All I see is a player joking around. There may be something to be said about prolonging the RVS (although I wouldn't call it that either. The end of the RVS isn't clear cut, and I saw jokes blend with serious posts on the fine border of the RVS-end in other games already). But self-contradiction is really pushing it.

[ODDin]

Hmm, noticed some things I've missed yesterday.

Sandman, you've been accusing beefster of discussing a possibility of VI-scum. But Scorpion has been talking about that even earlier, and he even said he'd used the tactic of VI-scum himself.

Also, this:

The chances of an experienced player playing VI don't seem particularly realistic. It would be obvious they were scum, because if they were town, then they wouldn't be trying to play stupid. What makes you think he's playing VI?

is WIFOM.


And Beefster, I don't really like how you're trying very hard to look for links in post 95. We're only starting the game, I really think it's way too early to look for links between people.
Personally, I'm of the opinion that looking for links is of little value before you have at least one confirmed scum in your hand, and then you look for people linked to him. It's just that links are hard to be certain about most of the time (unless it's something like chainsaw defence), so if you know nothing for certain about the players involved, looking for links tends to yield null-tells.
But even if we don't go that far, what you're talking about is very weak. Speculating about scumteams at this stage of the game can only confuse the discussion and is generally counterproductive.

[ODDin]

inhim, you were the one who kept the fire burning for most of the beginning of page 3. And then you even kept your vote on me. I don't really think you're in the position of accusing others of blowing it out of proportion.
Also, you still didn't answer how the setup made the exchange in page 3 any more "intriguing" than usual.

[ODDin]

If you wanna call it WIFOM go ahead and do, but what I'm saying stands. To say something is scummy implies that the one accused either planned whatever he did as part of a deliberate scum strategy or made an unconscious slip. Since the things discussed in my post don't really fall under the category of slips, they need to have been planned ahead in order to be scummy. And it'd be better for people to actually think if it makes sense.

[ODDin]

We were talking about my actions too.

However, as I have said previously, my current experience shows me that actually trying to figure out how the player's actions fall into a certain pattern helps more in finding scum than just going for individual isolated scum-tells.
People sometimes say "this and that is a scum-tell", but if you stop and think about it for a moment, it doesn't make any sense for scum to do such a thing. From a strictly logical point of view it is somewhat of a WIFOM, but sometimes you just need to use common sense. Because otherwise, every single argument can be called WIFOM, other than mod-granted info.

[ODDin]

The question itself contradicts what I'm trying to say here. What I'm trying to say, which I'm not saying is the paragon of truth, but rather a method of scumhunting I'm trying to adopt after witnessing the shameful failure of my previous method, is that instead of looking for specific isolated behvaiours (that is, scum-tells) that scum exhibit while town don't, one would be better off trying to think whether it makes more sense for a scum-X to be acting that way or for a town-X. This depends not only on a single action, but on that person's whole play in that game.
For instance, in the game Zombies, one of the players claimed cop on D1, and then retracted that claim and said he wasn't actually a cop. Most of the town went ahead and merrily lynched him. However, one player - also town - insisted that the fake-cop is simply stupid townie. As it turned out, he was correct. The reason he said that was that overall, the player's behaviour was more town than scum in his opinion, and it made more sense that the player was a stupid townie than scum.

So, what I'm saying is, instead of blindly saying "this is a recognised scum-tell let's lynch", it might be smarter to think whether it actually looks like that player is scum or like that player is town.

As I've said, I'm not preaching this as a single correct philosophy. It's just that I think looking at specific behaviours in isolation can often miss a greater point.


Am I getting my point across or is this just an incoherent ramble?

[ODDin]

It's more of a general feeling and impression. As I've said, it's the first game I'm actually trying this approach, so I can't really speak from experience.
Without going into too much detail to allow scum to do the exact opposite of what I'm going to say and thus fool me, I'd expect all, or at least most, of the player's actions fall into a certain pattern that fits a reasonable scum strategy, while not fitting a reasonable town strategy.

[ODDin]

I've been prodded

I'm sorry, just had lots of stuff on my mind and things I needed to do. I'll catch up with everything later today and will have a post.

[ODDin]

OK, an actual attempt at scumhunting will come today. Lynch me otherwise.

AtE much?

I think you're picking and choosing your targets. I don't like the inconsistency in your play. Why do you dislike the way I 'jump' on inhim, but you have no qualms with the 3 players that raised similar points before me? My point was that I saw a contradiction in what he had said.

Well, in much the same vein, why do you accuse chrono of saying that, while inhim said that much earlier?

Check out posts 146 by Beefster and then post 149 by inHim. They've been voting for each other, and then they suddenly go all "oh I was wrong" and unvote. inHim's post 149 is especially disturbing: one post and suddenly beefster is all town. Not to mention that the quoted post was there for some time yet inHim didn't react to it (although it would appear he wasn't really following the game, so this can be forgiven).
Still, this looks to me like they're scum who were trying to distance each other, but then panicked somewhat when they saw both their wagons are the most prominent wagons at the moment, and suddenly they have a revelation that they're wrong.

I'd also agree with other people in not liking scott's active lurking. Lurking can be an especially good strategy for scum in this game, since with two scum teams, one only needs to be faster than one's friend, to paraphrase a known joke. (When you're running away from a bear, you don't need to be faster than the bear, only faster than your friend.)
That is, scum might hope to lay low and wait for the other scumteam to get caught.


So, who I think is scum?
inHim, beefster, scott brosius (I think I've stated my suspicions in various places, including partially this post)
I have less qualms with choron right now, since he does appear to be more active, and the original argument that lead to my vote wasn't that strong.


In choosing between inhim and beefster, somehow beefster seems more new and less experienced, and I'm having easier time believing some of the things he did (like the RVS extension thing) stem from lack of attention more than scuminess, and thus

vote: inhim

.

[ODDin]

P.S. mr sandman should also probably gain a honorable mention for pinging my radar a few times, but I'm not getting an overall scum vibe from him at the moment.

[ODDin]

chrono, for the record, anti-town actions are not necessarily scummy (at least, not according to some people), though this is mostly pure theory and I don't think it'd be useful to get into that...

[ODDin]

Care to actually scumhunt?

[ODDin]

inHimshallibe (1) ODDin
Beefster (5) Scott Brosius, Chronopie, Mr. Chaos, easjo682, Mr.Sandman
Scott Brosius (2) ConfidAnon, inHimshallibe
easjo682 (1) Chevre
Mr. Chaos (2) Karma, XScorpion
(No vote) Beefster
12 alive; 7 votes lynch.

Not yet updated on latest events, but:

@mod: could you reconsider the replacement policy? There have been a lot of replaces already, and eventually it hurts the game because replacements generally hurt the game. elscouta, for instance, was a fairly active player, and his last post was 3 days ago, which in many games wouldn't even warrant a prod.

[ODDin]

inHim picked and choosed his targets from those who were on his wagon and ignored those who made the same case?

Ah, I get you now. Didn't read your post correctly.


Don't like Beefster's post 204. scorpion is asking good questions, which in my book

is

scumhunting.
Even more indicative is how he buckles under pressure and unvotes.

However, since we have 4 scum, it means if beefster is town, there are 4 people out there who don't mind voting for him. If he's scum, it'd mean there are only 2 people out there who don't mind voting for him. (though still more than the 0 of usual games, of course)

Until someone flips, it's not really useful to attempt to find affiliations as it's D1. They are easier to find in retrospect (especially in NKs if one group hits the other). We should be focused on the scummiest player, not attempting to link players together on D1.

I agree (although it's not entirely useless - you just need the argument to be especially strong since it's very easy to be mistaken. For starters, you'd need for both sides to have posts indicating of a mutual link)
However, scott, why don't you actually try to find the scummiest individual player? It's not like you're doing much other than telling others what not to do.

[ODDin]

Also, I see there's a case forming on chaos and I haven't really got an opinion on him either way atm, so I'll reread him when I find the time. (Lots of homework and nearing exams mean I haven't got too much of that...)

[ODDin]

Argh, it looks like I'm gonna be V/LA until Tuesday
But then I'll get back in full force!

[ODDin]

scott is correct that scorpion is taking things a bit out of perspective. I wouldn't say scum has no reason at all not to try to kill the other scum at night, not to mention that even if they don't try, it might very well happen.
However, the fact that there are 4 scum out of 9 players does mean that there are 4 players out there who don't mind lynching a townie, and thus I'd recommend more caution with our votes. In this light, the rush on chaos seems especially interesting, especially scott's push on eas. The desire not to rush things and not to be quick on the trigger is perfectly justified, and I don't like it how scott is pushing him to vote asap. karma is also apparently up for a quicklynch.
Don't like this at all.

And scott, why aren't you responding to scorpion in any way? You voted him, and then unvoted without saying anything about him.

[ODDin]

Karma is chainsaw defending himself. How fascinating.

Also, I'm not saying chaos isn't scummy - he is. I might end up voting him myself, though I'd prefer to do another ISO of him before I decide. All I'm saying is that there's no need to rush things. Rushing benefits scum and hurts town.

[ODDin]

scott - of course they aren't on a scum team together, but if player x is a townie, then all of the scum think, "well, he isn't on my team, he might be on the other scumteam or he might be town, and either way I'm all for lynching him". And considering scum can't talk during the day, when it comes to lynching townies, the situation with 4 scum on a single team is fairly similar to the situation with 4 scum on different teams - either way we have all four of them wanting to lynch him asap.

[ODDin]

Or you could look at the perspective of a townsperson who is simply trying to lynch someone who is likely to be scum.
The thing is, at this point in the game, scum have just as much incentive to lynch scum as town does. The only difference is that each scum player doesn't want to lynch their partner, hence why I'm wary of people who are unwilling to vote for people they claim to be suspicious of.

This is crap logic. At this point in the game, scum want to lynch the other scum as much as town does - correct. But they want to lynch town as well. Much like in any point in the game, scum want to lynch anyone who isn't on their team. Thus, no matter whom you're going to vote, there will be two people out there who won't mind joining along just for the lynch to happen. Yet if that somebody is town, there will be 4 people instead of 2.

Either way, town does not benefit from a quicklynch, which is what you're advocating. More discussion is good, no matter whom we end up lynching.

[ODDin]

Where did I advocate quick-lynching? I'm simply backing up my opinion with a vote. I said nothing about people voting without explaining themselves (like Karma, who has still yet to answer my question about his vote from page 12).
I'm also not so sure that scum "wants" to lynch town. I think it is more advantageous for each team to try to take out members of the other faction than it is to dwindle down the number of people who can't nightkill them.

When you tried to push eas into voting chaos, here:

And why not?

(Apparently posts haven't got numbers on them anymore, which makes stuff harder.)
Though when I read back I see that you've been less guilty of that than kharma, and I've been a little wrongly extrapolating.

Kharma saying he's 100% sure chaos is scum is especially ridiculous. 100% sure. From D1. That is, without any mod-given info.
You don't need to be a genius to realise that you can't be 100% sure of such things on D1. For that matter, unless you're a PR in a closed setup and the mod has given you role-related info, you can't be 100% sure of anything. But on D1 without any PR info it's really ridiculous. And this isn't kharma's first, or even second, game on this site (if his sig is correct, it's the fifth). And even though he'd been playing scum all the time (according to his sig), he should've still seen lots of town players accusing people of being scum while they weren't, on arguments much stronger than what he presented against chaos D1.
So, I really see no excuse for kharma to be so absolutely sure of chaos being scum and knowingly tunneling entirely on him. Other than kharma being scum, that is.

So,

FoS: kharma

, and I'll wait with my vote for the same reasons I've already stated above.

[ODDin]

For some weird reason I constantly wrote kharma instead of karma in my last post. Sorry about that.

[ODDin]

If karma is an alt it only makes things worse.

[ODDin]

Okay, reread chaos, and I don't find him worthy of a vote.

His change of stance on chrono is a little too quick, yes, but chrono did have two posts between chaos' chrono vote and chaos' "I think chrono is town" - so, scummy, but not very scummy. Also, chaos has said he found beefster scummy earlier in the game, so him voting beefster looks less like bandwagoning on whatever is available.
I did find something odd:

inHim: Could you post a few links to some of your recently completed games? I want to know if your playstyle is outstandingly different from your normal play; You might just be an off player.

Uhhhhh, your asking inHim to possibly provide evidence against himself. I dislike this heavily.

Reqeusting meta is a fairly standard thing to do. However, since we now know inhim was town, this doesn't seem too scummy, since there's no special reason for scum-chaos to defend inhim.

Bottom line: chaos is a little scummy, but not enough to warrant a vote in my eyes. The case on him really isn't that strong.


That being said, my scumdar is going through the roof when it comes to karma, and what sandman pointed out two posts above me is the icing on the cake.
A vote would put karma at L-2 and I don't want that right now, but otherwise I'd vote. (And I most probably will vote later on.)

That being said, I don't like it that some people (namely, chaos, chrono and confidanon) are yet to post today at all.

[ODDin]

Okay, reread chaos, and I don't find him worthy of a vote.

Isn't it telling that all 3 confirmed dead townies had Chaos on their scumdar though?

Okay, reread chaos, and I don't find him worthy of a vote.

Isn't it telling that all 3 confirmed dead townies had Chaos on their scumdar though?

I agree with this. Genuinely motivated scum hunting detected this, therefore it's likely more reliable than other suggestions and it shouldn't be written off.

This is basically appeal to popularity. I have a brain of my own, thank you very much, and I don't think chaos is especially scummy, and thus I'm not intending to vote for him unless my opinion changes. (And logical fallacies, such as appeal to popularity, aren't what's going to change it.)

It is noted, however, that scott is still applying pressure trying to get people to vote for chaos (using logical fallacies, too), and it is also noted how mr sandman has joined this wonderful, helpful and pro-town trend. (Yes, that was sarcasm)

[ODDin]

If I were to vote, I'd vote for karma. However, I don't want to put people at L-2 when there are 3 people who haven't even posted yet. I don't want to have a lynch with somebody not posting for the entire day - it makes reading them a LOT harder later on. So, that's why I'm not voting right now. (And I'm generally not too comfortable with moving into L-2 with less than 2 pages of discussion today.)

I do find scott pretty scummy. He's been basically active lurking yesterday and has been pushing hard for a chaos lynch today (less than karma, but still pretty hard.)
Another thing of interest about scott: although there are two votes on him and me heavily accusing him, he posts only to try and push me towards voting for chaos. Not a word about karma.
So, scott, what do you think of karma?

[ODDin]

EBWOP: In the sentence two before last, "him" refers to karma, not to scott.
That is, it should read: although there are two votes on karma and me heavily accusing karma, scott posts only to try and push me towards voting for chaos.

[ODDin]

Obviously you should have your own opinion. I never said you shouldn't. But almost half of this game is scum at this point. If you are going to use someone else's opinion as help in forming your own, we have three untarnished opinions that we know are coming from a town's perspective.[/quote]
IF

Look, sure, the fact that confirmed townies have suspected chaos didn't escape my attention, and caused me to look at him especially close. It also means I'm still going to keep an eye on him. However, the bottom line is that when I read him in ISO I didn't find what I saw VERY scummy. That's what my brain and gut tell me at the moment. I'm willing to change my opinion if chaos does something new that merits a change of opinion, or if somebody points out something about him that I didn't notice.
But what do you expect me to do in the meanwhile? Say "okay, nevermind what I think, I'm going to vote for chaos just because other townies have suspected him"?

A little OMGUS from ODDin, I see.

If you're talking about my accusation of scott, you might want to recall that I have been accusing him yesterday as well. Regardless, in order to claim OMGUS, you need to explain why my arguments are likely faked only in order to make an accusation.

Why do you think tunneling is such a huge scumtell?

1) When you tunnel you stop looking at other players in the game and focus on a single player. This is bad play for town. There are 4 scum out there, looking at just one person won't get you too far.
2) Your tunneling essentially assumes chaos is scum. You're not even willing to consider otherwise. This is bad play for town, since you can't be certain that chaos is scum, and you're not considering other possible options.

Mostly, however, tunneling is indicative of scum because of the difference in mindset between scum and town. Town want to catch scum - they don't care about specific PLAYERS, they just want to catch SCUM, whoever they might be. Therefore, town should be ready to reconsider their opinions and change their mind on whom they find scummy, because they players themselves are irrelevant - what matters is who is scum.
Scum, on the other hand, care more about individual players than about roles (less so in this game, but it's still true, because for scum, any lynch of somebody not on their team is basically a good lynch, even if perhaps not as good as another possible lynch.) Therefore, scum are more prone to focus on specific PLAYERS they want to lynch, which often produces tunneling.
So, tunneling as town hurts you and your team. Tunneling as scum doesn't. Therefore it is scummy.

[ODDin]

I'm not saying it has no significance, I'm saying that the fact that they thought chaos is scum doesn't yet mean he's scum, and my job as town is to scumhunt, not follow others. I'm not intending to vote for people whom I don't find scummy.
If you think chaos is scum, go ahead and convince me.

[ODDin]

Ok, I do think Chaos is scummy for the his sudden reversal on Chrono for no reason, but I think Chrono is even scummier at the moment, and that if Chrono flipped scum, then it would make it more likely that Chaos was also. What do you think of Chrono?

Neutral-leaning-scummy. He's been lurking since D1, but I get the impression he's just being lazy and not purposefully lurking.

@Oddin: So let me get this straight: tunneling is scummy, yet that doesn't justify you voting for Karma? What exactly do people have to do to convince you to vote?

I've explained this already. It's not a matter of convincing, I'm convinced enough. It's just that there's too little discussion at the moment and there are people who haven't posted anything. I don't want a lynch to happen before everybody has expressed their opinion on it, because otherwise we're losing vital information. If we lynch karma and he flips town, you can have people saying "well, I'd tell you he's town but I wasn't there", and there's nothing you can do about it because you can't know if they're lying or not. And on the other hand, if he flips town, everybody can go "sure, I'd vote for him too he was super scummy", and again, you can't know if they're lying or not.
Thus, I don't want to put karma at L-2 in the current situation - too close to a lynch for my tastes. I'll vote when those who haven't expressed their opinion on karma do so (or most of them, at least). Unless I change my opinion until then, that is.

[ODDin]

EBWOP: And on the other hand, if he flips scum

[ODDin]

Wait, karma, who's your second biggest scum read other than chaos?

[ODDin]

Curious. Before your recent post about seeing chrono lurk to victory, you only ever mentioned him in relation to what others said about him - chaos, mostly. And that was in order to bring a case against chaos, not chrono. The only post that can be somehow seen as accusing chrono is this one (not quoting for the sake of readability.)
And even there you don't actually say chrono is scummy, you just say his posts aren't townie enough in your opinion to warrant chaos' reaction - again, this is part of your argument against chaos. Calling it an accusation of chrono is a serious stretch.
Bottom line, you never, ever, said "chrono is scummy" in this game prior to "I've seen Chrono lurk to victory as scum before."
And suddenly he's your second biggest scum read?

[ODDin]

You may be right. The fact is that he's lurking. He may be purposefully lurking in order to stay under the radar, he may be simply lazy. My gut tells me it's the second option, but truth be told, I don't see much concrete evidence either way.
Though if he's a lazy townie, he needs to get his ass into the game ASAP. It's only 15 pages, no big deal.

[ODDin]

[ODDin]

Yeah, I heard too.
I'm still here and ready to play, though I'd need to reread this to remember what's going on here.

[ODDin]

Heads up: I won't be able to catch up on this until the weekend. Sorry folks.

[ODDin]

Okay, reread the whole game from the start.

This time around, chaos (now dr) looks somewhat more scummy to me than he did previously. I still think karma (now equinox) is scummier, though.

Until someone flips, it's not really useful to attempt to find affiliations as it's D1. They are easier to find in retrospect (especially in NKs if one group hits the other). We should be focused on the scummiest player, not attempting to link players together on D1.

Ok. Scott's town. This is smart pro-town advice. This is

exactly

why I'm not going to go out and say "Hey, here's my scumlist" and then attack 4 players all at once.

Don't like this. Yes, it's a pro-town advice, but giving pro-town advice doesn't make somebody 100% town. hindu also doesn't address the various arguments against scott.
Not to mention that I think I'd given that same advice somewhere earlier in the game...

Also, when you read this post, please explain how the scumdar on Karma is "through the roof". I don't see it at all.

It was the fact that he was 100% chaos was scum from arguments coming from D1, didn't provide any arguments on anyone else and generally didn't express willingness to participate in the discussion, wanted to quick-lynch chaos, made a slip that suggested he was certain he'd be alive tomorrow, said he's going to "build a case on me tomorrow" which suggested he wants me lynched but doesn't even know himself why. And it kept getting worse from there - him suddenly remembering chrono is his next biggest scumread without ever addressing him previously.

Chevre, a confirmed townie player, started to have suspicion on Chaos too.

Yay, even more appeal to authority.


* * *

Taz, have you read the entire game yet?
You voting for equinox based on gut feeling without even reading the whole game is really bad play. (I have no problem with you wanting to give equinox some slack later, but the fact that you made that vote to begin with is disturbing.)
Then you seem to be happy to switch to dr because hindu said so.

Hinduragi replaced easjo. Easjo's a real suspect, and Mr. Chaos might as well be targetted by scum so that they don't have to do much targetting of any one else. I don't fear cross examination; I wonder if I'm just a person who sticks out as a person who would be good to cross examine, or if you are a person who cross examines people.

Why is eas a real suspect? You never even mentioned her prior to that post. Then later you again say she's a suspect. It seems you make up arguments against eas only after you're asked to bring them up.

* * *

Don't like chronopie's play. If you did reread the whole thread, I'd expect some more opinions from you, not just following up on the popular wagon. Why do you suspect dr? What do you think of equinox? Have you got any other thoughts to share with the rest of us?

* * *

Bottom line: My top suspect is equinox. After that come scott and dr, roughly similar. (I believe the reasons are out there and I wouldn't like to repeat things that are obvious, but ask me if you're not sure why these are my suspects) Last comes chrono - his latest post tips his lurking into the "purposefully lurking" territory, rather than "lazy town who doesn't care."

I think there's been enough discussion for me to feel better about putting equinox at L-2, so:

vote: equinox

[ODDin]

Wait for a counterclaim... okay, that one is seriously disturbing. Counter claiming a doctor is the most idiotic ting to do in this situation. If somebody else is a doctor, then he knows for certain you're scum, and thus won't reveal himself but will instead go ahead with the lynch. And if you're the doctor, then you should know that there's no other doctor and that nobody else will counterclaim.
So, the only explanation I can see to this statement is that you're scum trying to fish for the doctor.
I'll wait a clarification from dr on this, but he's seriously aiming at my top suspect spot with this.

[ODDin]

Oh, I forgot a role can be selected twice (though the chances are slim).
But this makes this even worse, since even if somebody does come out and say "I'm a doctor", it doesn't mean one of them is necessarily lying. (Not to mention that one of them can be a werewolf, that is.) So, all the more reason not to ask for a counterclaim.

[ODDin]

I was basicly saying that if there is no evidence saying I'm not a doctor why not believe me, also why lynch a doctor

If you're a doctor, you should realise that either there's no other doctor out there so nobody will counter-claim, or there is another doctor out there, because there migt be 2 doctors out there, and thus him claiming would simply be disastrous.
So, a second doctor claim won't necessarily mean you're lying. And even if it did and there could only be one doctor, if you're lying, the real doctor shouldn't claim. He'd be revealing himself for nothing.
So, no matter how you look at it, nobody should claim doctor. Your insistence suggests you're trying hard to fish for one.

But I agree with scorp, let's wait for equinox to catch up and say what she thinks before we end this.

[ODDin]

Hmm, taz is criticising people for going after dr while he's voting him himself. I like that.

[ODDin]

I mean this in a not cynical way - I really do like that. It suggests more genuine scumhunting, since he's not simply interested in getting the lynch done.

[ODDin]

equinox, I think you're not dead yet because you're scum yourself. I had good reasons to be suspicious of you yesterday, they didn't go anywhere.
chronopie is also a very likely scum candidate.
Other than that, I'm not really sure.
Mr Sandman pinged my scumdar on D1 but I didn't continue pinging it on D2.
I didn't really likely scorp's case on eas on D1 and thought it was forced, but on the other hand, the fact that he continued pushing it for some time even though it wasn't really popular speaks slightly in his favour.
Hindu read neutral pretty much all along to me. Nothing extremely pro-town, but nothing I found really scummy either.

As for the massclaim, I'm not really sure. There are pros and cons, but I wouldn't discard it outright as completely useless.

[ODDin]

Funny you call XScorpion's case "not really popular." The only reason drmyshottyizsik got lynched instead of me was I hammered, and Scott Brosius didn't.

I think you misunderstood. I was talking about scorp's case on eas which he was pushing on D1. On D1 scorp had pushed pretty hard against eas on the whole "voices in his head" thing and stuff around it. On the one hand, I don't like that case much and think it was forced. On the other hand, he kept pushing for it although it wasn't really popular, which gives him some town-points. I'm not talking about D2.

You're doing a lot of fence-sitting there, ODDin. What happened to the town player you were on Day 1? What happened to all the defending you did on Day 2? Can't find a stance to safely take now, eh, scum?

Oh, I'd be more than happy to lynch you. I just don't want to vote because lynching a townie today may well mean we've lost. And although I seriously suspect you're scum, I'm not 100% sure you're not the second townie, and so I prefer to be careful and wait with my vote.

Mr Sandman pinged my scumdar on D1 but

I

didn't continue pinging it on D2.

Oh, I'm sure you can ping your own scumdar. Nice morning slip there.

Slips only mean anything if there's something about them suggesting I'm scum. I don't see what about me writing "I" instead of "he" suggests I'm scum. If you really care, I wrote that because at first I intended to write something along the lines of "but I didn't continue feeling he's scum on D2", but then realised that sentence was a trainwreck and didn't really express what I was trying to say, and rewrote it as "but he didn't continue etc", but forgot to change "I" into "he".

I think you're seriously forcing a case on me here. I wonder why. Perhaps because chrono is your scumpartner and so you can't vote him, so you're forced to fabricate a case on somebody else?

[ODDin]

I wasn't talking about your lack of a vote. I was talking about your stances. I felt you were a solid town player on Day 1 because you took stances and stood by them. You reversed it on Day 2 when you were less scum hunting and more town defending, which... isn't scum hunting. On Day 3, you just sit on the fence. Most excellent.

I haven't really got any questions in mind that can help me gain more info at the moment. To learn more and gain more insight I'd need to reread the game, which I will but I haven't got the time to sit down and do that just right now. So in the meanwhile, I summarised my opinions on everyone in the game. Not entirely sure what you expected me to do.

As for D2, I don't know, I just played how I played. I read the game and expressed my stances on everything I felt I had a good stance on. I do remember accusing scott and karma (now yourself) on D2.
Actually, now that I think about it, Mr Sandman was using some appeal to authority along with scott on D2, so he did ping my scumdar on D2, although it's not a really big ping.

[ODDin]

Scorpion: Why do you think hindu is scum?


Equinox:
Here's why I think you're fabricating a case against me rather than truthfully believing what you're saying:
1) What I said about scorp's case on eas on D1 was very clear. I clearly mentioned I was talking about D1 and about the case on eas (now hindu). It doesn't seem to me like you truthfully thought I was talking about scorp's behaviour on D2. To do that you'd need to ignore most of my original sentence.
2) You accused me of making a "slip", but you didn't explain what was actually scummy about it, and you didn't explain it after I answered you on the issue, you just ignored it. If you thought it was important enough to mention, you should back it up.

[ODDin]

ODDin: See, this is what I'm confused about. You were pro-town on Day 1, then you went on defensive mode for a couple of people on Day 2, and now you're back on pro-town mode on Day 3. Sorry for not having specifics; I was working with what I remembered from your play. I'll go do a PBPA.

I defend people when I disagree with accusations against them. I also defended eas on D1 because I disagreed with scorp's case on him. If you really care, you can check up my meta, I often defend people when I find that they're wrongly accused when I'm playing town. I remember this issue discussed in at least one game I played as town, but I don't remember which at the moment. Maybe Mini 784.
So, on D2 I said that some arguments were wrong in my opinion. That didn't prevent me from accusing other people at the same time - as I've said, I've accused both scott and karma.

As for the slip, is there something obviously scummy I can point out? No, not really. But the wording is

odd

. Why would you ping your scumdar when someone acts scummy? It could be as you say, that you were screwing around while editing and forgot, but that excuse is so ridiculously easy to use. It reminds me of one time when someone said, "Maybe the doctor thought that I would..." and used the very explanation you gave me. He flipped scum. YAY FOR ANECDOTAL STUFF.

I think it's pretty obvious that there should be a "he" rather than "I" in that sentence. There's no sense - not even scummy sense - in saying "I pinged my scumdar". It doesn't make sense because, indeed, one cannot ping his own scumdar. A slip is when knowledge you have as scum but aren't supposed to have as town leaks into your post and you don't notice it - like if I implied I was looking for 2 scum and not 4, for instance, or something like that. Sentences that simply don't make sense for either faction aren't slips.

While I do that PBPA thing, here, have some obvscum.

Unvote, Vote: Chronopie

Remember this when I get quick-lynched, other town player. If the other two scum teams don't gun for you, that is.

Now, this is curious. What suddenly changed that made you reconsider?
Perhaps I was correct about chrono being your partner and now you're desperately trying to distance him...

[ODDin]

equinox: I'm mostly entertaining the thought, really. I don't get your read on me, and your manic-depressive-esque shifts from "you're town" "no you're scum".
I mean, look at this: "I'm flip-flopping on my read of you -- one day you're town, one day you're not, and then you are. Confusing the hell out of me. The one thing I am sure of is you're not town"
So you're not sure if I'm scum or town. The only thing you are sure of is that I'm not town. Yeah... that makes sense...

scorp: interesting thought there, though you're not bringing into consideration the possibility of protections, which, if present, could change the situation.

[ODDin]

I agree there likely isn't a doctor, since that would mean a second anti-mafia role, although the chance exists. But we haven't seen any anti-wolf role, and there probably is at least one (probability of at least one anti-wolf role is 5/6). Combined, I think there's a decent chance of there being a doctor or angel out there.
There's also the option of the massclaim, but I'm afraid it'll cause more harm than help us. Revealing protecting roles isn't the best idea, after all.
But the more I think about it, the more I'm reaching the conclusion that even if there are protecting roles out there, it won't really change your analysis much.

So,

vote: no lynch

[ODDin]

Yeah, that's also true...

By the way, I'm now almost convinced scorp is town. No scum in their right mind would've offered that no lynch option.

[ODDin]

vote: no lynch

[ODDin]

OH YEAH!

I see that my attempt to paint a huge target on myself for the werewolves worked at last, although in the end it wasn't necessary.
Scorp, your "no lynch" at the end was a dead giveaway, why did you do that? Sure, the single townie lost the moment the day began, no matter what happened, but a townie accepting his defeat would've provided some "bah" post or something, like equinox did. What you did looked like a deliberate plan.
Also, why did you want the no-lynch yesterday? Were you so sure we'd NK equinox?

[ODDin]

By the way, here's a link to our quicktopic: http://www.quicktopic.com/44/H/X2j5cN4wx835

Mod / wolves - can you please provide a link to the wolf quicktopic? I'm really quite curious.

[ODDin]

A pleasure working with you too.
Scorpion indeed played wonderfully. If you look at our quicktopic, on N3 I said "well, scorp is obv-town, so I'm not even considering him right now."
Also, great bussing of eas on D1.

[ODDin]

In the end it didn't really matter anyway.

[ODDin]

Read your quicktopic... really scary how many times you mentioned the option of killing me/sandman, though you always mentioned it as though we're town.

Hindu was perfectly right, we did kill inhim because he suspected us - hindu just missed the fact he nailed us as the scumteam.

[ODDin]

Scorp - I really don't think we won because we had an angel. The only time I was actually NKed was the last night, when it didn't matter anyway.
Sure, it affected our play, but mostly during the late game: during D3 I was kinda suggesting I was the angel to draw a wolf kill onto myself (which didn't work, but a chrono kill was great too) and on D4 I joined scorp in the no lynch vote thinking that it was probably a trap to lure mafia and in this scenario I wanted to be lured. But the most important thing was that scorp revealed himself as a wolf. Even if you killed one of us successfully N4, we'd still win - 1 mafia 1 townie 0 wolves is a mafia victory.

[ODDin]

1) And what if hindu WAS the doctor?
2) When I said it didn't matter we had an angel, I meant that if the roles were exactly like they were except there wouldn't be any anti-wolf role at all, things would've gone in pretty much the same way. The angel's guards didn't change anything in the game - you never missed a kill because of them. (Except for the last one, but that's a technicality.)

Although in theory, I agree that the setup is somewhat unbalanced. It can lean pretty heavily towards one scum group. Limiting PRs to the town seems like a good idea. I also think the PRs should be balanced - either no PRs, or 1 anti-wolf AND 1 anti-mafia, or 2 anti-wolf AND 2 anti-mafia.

[ODDin]

I think making it that the only options are equal number of anti-wolf and anti-mafia roles (all for town only) it will solve this issue better.