Open 218: Two-fold C9 - Game Over

[Hinduragi]

I'm replacing in for easjo. I'll read this tonight since I've only got one other game in progress. With a little luck, I should be able to also post my opinions on the game so far and finish my catch up all in one sitting.

[Hinduragi]

1. How long have you been playing Mafia? (inside and outside MS)
2. How would you describe your meta?
3. What's your win/loss record?
4. Favorite setup?
5. What do you think is the biggest scum tell?
6. How do you make your decisions?

May as well answer these while I'm at it.

1.) 3-4 months or so.
2.) I don't have a meta yet.
3.) 3-1
4.) A balanced one
5.) Claiming Scum
6.) "Do I think this is this scummy or townie?" I answer that by taking into account behavior, playstyle, and actions taken so far. Then I go on gut if I don't think that's going to work.

But it also gives me a small town vibe as well, which doesn't sit well with me either.

This feels to me like a subliminal mistake Mr Chaos left in his post. (Oh hey, someone actually did catch this later on. They pointed it out as fluff for a voting reason...well, that's obviously wrong since it was from a big post. My point on this is that it's suspicious and that it gives me a scum read of Mr. Chaos)

If I had to lay it on the line right now and name four scum, I'd name:
Chronopie
Mr. Chaos
ConfidAnon
Scott Brosius

I felt like I had to quote this since I'm confident a scum is on this list. (I am getting scum reads from Mr. Chaos and Chrono specifically up to this point in the game.)

Btw, check out Mr. Chaos ISO 9. Epic. He has 9 posts by page 7 and he tells another player to quit prod avoiding. Also, when looking at his ISO, note that all his votes are backed up by crap reasons.

I think I'll leave my vote where it is for now.... but I could be easily persuaded to jump on to beefster.

Beefster was lynched on D1. If I read right, Mr. Chaos just put that statement down so he could vote hop onto beefster in a later post. I'm going to see if he was in the lynching wagon for that when I get there...

Confidanon gave very little reason for placing inhim at L-3, only stating that he disliked inhim's use of word choice as a vote reason. I don't really see why there's much more to say.

I see this as an attempt to look townie. Just thought I'd let you know.

The hell is this? It's not like you've been the paragon of scum hunting here, bud.

Chrono's recent posts are giving me a decent townish vibe, but Beefster's style has been crashing hard. I would rather see Beef try and actually hunt than vote ignorantly.

Unvote; Vote: Beefster

I saw this coming.

Until someone flips, it's not really useful to attempt to find affiliations as it's D1. They are easier to find in retrospect (especially in NKs if one group hits the other). We should be focused on the scummiest player, not attempting to link players together on D1.

Ok. Scott's town. This is smart pro-town advice. This is

exactly

why I'm not going to go out and say "Hey, here's my scumlist" and then attack 4 players all at once.

Ok...here's another post I just read over.

gog damm, all the suspicion on me as soon as i go Limited Access. I think I can manage to do a couple things, though

What about Chronopie has made him town?

His last post before I unvoted gave me an oddly town vibe, while I kept noticing Beefster being generally unhelpful and pinging my scum radar quite a bit more. TL;DR I thought Beefster looked more scummy at that point.

The rest of his post was 1.) Defending chevre 2.) Trying to convince XScorp to jump onto the beefster wagon. At the end of the post, he says he's going to keep his vote where it is without listing a reason. (Ironically, he didn't list a reason for voting beef earlier besides "but Beefster's style has been crashing hard. I would rather see Beef try and actually hunt than vote ignorantly")

Chaos, what do you think of Beefster?

Terrible question. Reread and try again.

Hell, you don't even need to look far, just look at the top of this page.

^Question dodging.(Take into account that he gave no reason in the first place) Active lurking. something he has called people out twice for so far.

I wish Karma had made Mr. Chaos actually answer his question before he hammered.(Why'd he switch so fast?) No twilight conversation either. I was hoping to get some nice reads from that. Anyways, that concludes D1. D2 here we go.

...Why is Karma being voted? Seriously? Oh, I see it now. Anyways, that doesn't matter. Karma has a town read coming out of D1.(I will give him credit for interrogating the scummiest player here.)

Your assumption that you'll still be alive tomorrow is a huge scum tell. I don't see any pro-town benefit in waiting a day before you come out with a case.

No. He's using an aggressive playstyle. I've seen it before. This isn't a huge scum tell at all.

Bottom line: chaos is a little scummy, but not enough to warrant a vote in my eyes. The case on him really isn't that strong.

I strongle disagree that he's only a little scummy. Karma's case is weaker than Chaos'. Chevre, a confirmed townie player, started to have suspicion on Chaos too.

pquote="ODDin"]Also, chaos has said he found beefster scummy earlier in the game, so him voting beefster looks less like bandwagoning on whatever is available.[/quote]
I explained this as I read it in real-time. Also, when you read this post, please explain how the scumdar on Karma is "through the roof". I don't see it at all.

If I were to vote, I'd vote for karma. However, I don't want to put people at L-2 when there are 3 people who haven't even posted yet. I don't want to have a lynch with somebody not posting for the entire day - it makes reading them a LOT harder later on. So, that's why I'm not voting right now.

Now THIS is the best pro-town posting I've seen you make thus far.

I do find scott pretty scummy. He's been basically active lurking yesterday and has been pushing hard for a chaos lynch today (less than karma, but still pretty hard.)
Another thing of interest about scott: although there are two votes on him and me heavily accusing him, he posts only to try and push me towards voting for chaos. Not a word about karma.
So, scott, what do you think of karma?

I appreciate that you go into detail so much but it isn't needed. Scott confirmed earlier he would vote for the scummiest person he saw and look for connections/other scum later. I want to think you're just confused townie at this point.

1) When you tunnel you stop looking at other players in the game and focus on a single player. This is bad play for town. There are 4 scum out there, looking at just one person won't get you too far.
2) Your tunneling essentially assumes chaos is scum. You're not even willing to consider otherwise.

1.) Yes. However, you must take into account some townies play it where they ask questions or lurk until they get a HUGE read on someone then they focus on that player while looking at the other "possible scum" to see their reactions as to whether or not they can find a partner.
2.) I'm not sure what to respond to this because chaos hasn't posted. I'll get to his replacement and come back to this and post my thoughts.

And even there you don't actually say chrono is scummy, you just say his posts aren't townie enough in your opinion to warrant chaos' reaction - again, this is part of your argument against chaos. Calling it an accusation of chrono is a serious stretch.

I was once told by an IC to focus on one scum at a time. You get more results and it's easier that way.

Now, I'm tired right now. But, boy, it's going to be a good day two. I can feel it.

I got the same feeling the second I posted I was re-reading.

I don't want to stress, Equinox, though.
UNVOTE

I don't get it. Oh, I see later that you hadn't read the entire thing.

Did you read the whole thread? Do you have any views besides Karma being suspicious? Content would be nice.
That goes for all replacements.

You have no idea. And yes, that was 4-5 hours of one hell of a fine read-through and re-read-through.(Mainly because I analyzed everything as if I was ingame and condensed it as best I could... which was obviously not enough <_<... tl;dr version coming to a store near you!)

Day 2 seems to be a shorter read that will allow me to jump into this game quicker and start running with it, so I'll do that and post as I go. When I'm done, I'll go back to Day 1 and read.

As a player who just read the entire thread like a proof-read on a finals thesis paper, I disagree. Day 1 gives you confirmed townies and their views on things, scum who bandwagoned them, and all sorts of evidence I would say were verified. Day 2 was completely awkward because half the players weren't participating to begin with.

Vote: Shotty

[Hinduragi]

t;dr -
Chaos is obvious scum if you ask me.

[Hinduragi]

What I'm doing is how I scumhunt. The point of my vote is to show that I want Shotty lynched.

easjo's gameplay strikes me as newbscum and Hinduragi immediately went against Mr. Chaos and then left. I don't know see a better example of opportunism.

Mr. Chaos is my primary suspect. I thought I made that clear enough. If I have reason to believe he is town or I read him wrong, I'll retract my vote. For now, I'm positive he's scum.

[Hinduragi]

I can't defend myself against things I didn't say. That's the hindrance of replacing in.

[Hinduragi]

No, I don't think your initial attack was justified. You stated that you voted for Easjo because she had "voices in her head" and for self contradiction. I saw all of that evidence you used as RVS posts when she made them because, despite what people think, the end of RVS is a matter of perspective therefore I can see where she might still think RVS is in progress. To be honest, though, I just saw your vote as an attempt to get the game out of RVS at first. Later on, I realized you were actually serious.

[Hinduragi]

It was the fact that he was 100% chaos was scum from arguments coming from D1, didn't provide any arguments on anyone else and generally didn't express willingness to participate in the discussion, wanted to quick-lynch chaos, made a slip that suggested he was certain he'd be alive tomorrow, said he's going to "build a case on me tomorrow" which suggested he wants me lynched but doesn't even know himself why. And it kept getting worse from there - him suddenly remembering chrono is his next biggest scumread without ever addressing him previously.

Yeah but I do some of those things as well because that's how I scumhunt. I focus on who I think is the scummiest while just watching my other suspects when they don't have any pressure on them. (Or maybe they do. Depends on if you guys are following up on them as well) I haven't provided any arguments on most people yet but that's because I want to see who flips scum and look for links and connections to others later. As soon as someone starts looking scummier than Chaos(Now Shotty) to me, you guys will know because my vote will be on them along with the reasons I have for suspecting them. The rest of it, yes, is suspicious but I don't particularly see it as a reason to move him to the top of my list.

As for Scott, the main arguments I saw against him were he is scummy because he is lurking. I just couldn't picture a scum lurking the way he did, though. I don't exactly know how to explain it because it's a matter of psychology. Either way, he did vote for beefster so that does seem scummy. Also, I'm going to point out inHim was on Scott's wagon at the end of D1. I am starting to see your point but Chaos still reads scummy as hell. Shotty isn't helping by not posting either.

As for previous votes from Chevre, Beef, and inHim, I think looking at the suspects of dead townies is a great thing to do. It lets you know who is actually attempting to scumhunt instead of who is pushing a mislynch.(Even though that may or may not be true for this game) I'm not using at a reason but more of a reference for who I think I should vote for.

Chrono -
That was useless. You are under suspicion and the only thing you can think to do is hop onto a wagon and put it at L-1 without listing a reason?

Shotty -
Also, I'm not buying that claim. If Chaos was a PR, there is no sensible logic to attract so much attention to himself. Anyways, Shotty, who did you protect N1?

[Hinduragi]

Ask the mod who you protected and get back to us, Shotty.

[Hinduragi]

We'll wait for you to pm the mod and tell us who you protected. I don't get why you can't pm the mod. Why are we waiting for a counter claim before you even tell us who you protected? That's just going to get the real doc NK'd.

[Hinduragi]

^Exactly my point. If Chaos was suspicious, then Shotty is wearing a ski mask and is holding a tommy gun in his hand.

[Hinduragi]

Equinox (3) XScorpion, Mr.Sandman, ODDin
drmyshottyizsik (4) Scott Brosius, Hinduragi, Tazaro, Chronopie
(No vote) Scott Brosius, Equinox, drmyshottyizsik
9 alive. 5 votes lynch.

4/6th either doc/cop/tracker. 4/6 * 1/3 = 2/9 = 22.2% chance of a doc.

Once determined, these roles will be randomly distributed to the Town and Werewolf players.

He can still be scum anyways.

[Hinduragi]

I'm waiting for one last post from Shotty. He knows he's at L-1 so he should be checking here soon. Depending on that response, I'm going to be ready to lynch or wait a little bit.

[Hinduragi]

Ok. I'm fine with this lynch. He didn't pm the mod to see who Chaos protected N1 or he isn't doctor.(The mod was online hence the vote count being edited into my post at the top of the page so he would've gotten a reply if he tried to pm)

[Hinduragi]

You should've said that before I pointed out the mod was on. I don't buy that at all.

[Hinduragi]

You should've said that before I pointed out the mod was on.

I don't buy that at all

.

If he had instead said post #534's content in post #532, could you have bought it?

I'd be willing to reconsider unvoting and prolong the vote, yeah. That's what I meant when I posted post 531. It simply comes down to how a mind works:(Considering he's newbie, this was my analysis of how he'd react) If you're town and you're L-1, chances are you probably would remember what's going on and you'd at least be able to lie about protecting someone(It wouldn't make sense to ask for a doctor counterclaim so I left this option out). If you're doctor, then you'd definitely check your pm's at L-1. If you're scum and you're fakeclaiming, you'd probably forget since you wouldn't have a pm to check. If you're scum and doctor, I'd say chances are high that you'd check your pm's anyways. Anyways, that was how I decided my final justification for Shotty being scum would work. I didn't reveal it to any of you guys for the sole purpose that if I pointed it out, it'd only remind Shotty to remember who he protected.

[Hinduragi]

Well played, mafia. I thought we had it until Chrono didn't flip scum. =/

[Hinduragi]

Yeah, Scott was right on about the town situation. Still, this game was pretty fun and it gave me some much needed scum experience. I also lol'd when Scott flipped PR after I had suggested it. I just wish he hadn't died. He was the one person I knew was 100% townie. Even if the other townies and scum didn't. I had him as one of the most solid gut reads I've had.

[Hinduragi]

I don't see why you don't like VT. I take it as more of a challenge because I've got no info and I enjoy it more. Being scum never was my thing but I do my best to play to my win condition regardless of my role.

All I can say is, lurk less and lie less. That shot town in the foot. I was cussing at the screen when drmyshottyizsik flipped townie.

I lol'd when he flipped town. I'm thinking he just wanted to live when he claimed. That really backfired on him. Especially when he said he protected me since easjo hadn't made any connections to Chaos at all before that.