Open 239 - C9++

[Ythill]

And how am I player #9? I was totally the last one to /in in the Queue.

There are only 9 players. I'm assuming the others are on-deck replacements.

Mafuyu absolutely would have NKed me if she was scum. NS and ani might have too. Who's afraid of Reck?

[Ythill]

Vote: Ythill

for not knowing who he's playing with.

Heh. At least you know I'm not scum with Unsight/AGar. What's funny is that I saw you posting and still was stupid.

Anyway... did an iso scan of Reck's most recent games. Fate has been in a lot of them, ani in a few. Didn't see anyone else from this player list. NS is familliar with Reck from GD, but he'd probably kill me over Reck.

VOTE: animorpherv1

[Ythill]

NS is prob-town.

@NS:

Think real hard. There's only one reasonable answer.

[Ythill]

Yes, both are members of the Guys posse. As am I, FTR.

Mod:

Fix the bold tags in my last post please?

[Ythill]

Why are you trying to confuse me? (It's already working.)

[Ythill]

Or maybe Doc RECK prevented a kill.

Or GF/SK/RB did. I don't think setup speculation is very helpful at this point, but it's nice to know we're dealing with 3 mafia.

Flawless logic:

Lynch Ythill and when he flips scum, we get two confirmed townies.

By that logic, it would be three confirmed townies (I didn't include NS earlier because I was talking to him and figured he already knows his alignment). But your logic isn't flawless. If I'm scum, my mistake could have been faked. Also, I'm not scum.

Mafuyu's initial, unspoken idea of "Everyone available, provide a reasonable guess as to the number of T's in-game, preferably not accurate to what role you might have" is really freaking stupid.

QFT.

@Fate:

Mafuyu is prob-town.

[Ythill]

I'm pretty sure if you think hard enough you can see what he was doing...

Well, duh. You jumped the gun though.

UNVOTE: ani
VOTE: Nobody Special because Fate asked so nice.

Convince me.

You already know my alignment, silly. Are you pissed that Reck protected me last night?

I think we've got some lurker scumz.

[Ythill]

Maybe it's because I'm suffering set-up fatigue, but I just cannot glean how you "know" we're dealing with 3 mafia.

Don't look at me, nham's the one that said it...

RECK's death also means we have at least 1 D. This means that there must be at least 3 scum.

You'll note that my comment was directed at him. If you look at the setup, you'll see that he was correct, though my assumption that by "scum" he meant "mafia" was not.

If both anti-town parties know each other, they can at the very least temporarily truce. This would be beneficial for Ythill-SK in the terms that Ythill-SK cannot be betrayed easily for two reasons...

Is this what I think it is? Heh. Maybe Reck

did

protect me last night. I can see why he would.

UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: Mafuyu

[Ythill]

I saw your question Andrius, but the answer is pretty obvious. There's no way I could know Reck protected me.

[Ythill]

You're saying that to the guy who thought there were only nine players in the game.

[Ythill]

And now Mafuyu starts this "balls-crazy" suspicion of Ythill's actions, and now Ythill attacks back with a vote, because he thinks he sees something?

Could someone explain all of these cryptic little comments?

Three things bothered me about Maf's #58. First, too much qualification looks scummy. Second, jumping to the conclusion that I am SK is very indicitive of her being scum. The statement to NS that she quoted is obviously me jabbing him about being mafia, and yet she takes it as a SK softclaim? That's a serious amount of bad assumption in a situation where the town has no reason to believe that there is a SK in the setup, but a safer assumption coming from scum who tried to NK me last night. It does make sense that Reck would have protected me because he is intimately familliar with the reasons that Maf or NS would have to NK me as scum.

If both anti-town parties know each other, they can at the very least temporarily truce. This would be beneficial for Ythill-SK in the terms that Ythill-SK cannot be betrayed easily for two reasons: the first being that there would have to be a cooperative Vig for an NK to take place on Ythill, the second being that scum would not be able to out Ythill-SK without losing at least one player, in this hypothetical instance NS.

This is the third (and most important) thing that bothered me about #58, and it was the one I mentioned vaguely and that she denied. It looks very much like Maf-scum offering to make a deal with Ythill-SK. Look at how she's selling the idea.

@Andrius:

Why aren't you voting for Mafuyu yet?

[Ythill]

Lovin' the Maf votes. More please, I want to see her squirm.

@ Ythill: The lack of 1's in front of the 0,1,2, were a tad confusing, but there are 12 players in C9++

My confusion was compounded by playing C7++ or something like that once before, which had less than twelve players.

...shouldn't we hit the SK first (if we can) because he has the potential to be NP-untouchable.

IMO, SK-hunting in the early game is not optimal, especially when we don't even know if there is one. Now that my blinders are off about the liklihood of a successful protect last night, I'm thinking Reck looks more like a vig kill anyway. He's not exactly a candidate for Paragon.

@Fate:

You've played with Reck a lot. Who kills him more often, scum or town?

[Ythill]

@Andrius:

I was leaning that way too but now I'm not so sure. If Mafuyu is scum, she would seriously have insisted on killing me and Reck knows this. He also knows that NS would have reason to kill me as scum.

Yes on Paragon. Not sure if it was C7++ or something like it, I just remember that the name confused me because I was learning a bit of programming in C++ at the time, and that it wasn't this setup but was very similar. I think Maf is an alt so I don't know if the person behind her is female, but I know that she soft-claimed female in a recent game and has never complained about me calling her a girl.

[Ythill]

Well... this is a mafia game.

The quoted line is mostly speculation, but I'm coming at it from the other side... if Mafuyu is scum assuming that I'm SK and trying to make a deal with me, then she must have some reason to make that assumption and a failed NK could be that reason. The part that isn't speculation is that she'd have pushed for my NK as scum, which she's already admitted. If you want to see the basis for my speculation, check out Guys Part II Mafia. TLDR: Maf was scum, I was a JK who, with the help of another player, lead a town sweep by N2. I personally busted Mafuyu and lead her wagon to lynch. NS was in the game. Reck was the mod. It was my only non-marathon game with any of them and it ended

very

recently.

[Ythill]

I'm just gonna go out and say that I really dislike the whole "I think I would've been the NK for X reason."

Well, then people should post more so I have something else to talk about.

Mafuyu will also note that as part of the Scum-SK D1 interaction theory, it's ideal for scum to remove the SK before they proceed to gain influence on the town, whilst gaining their own sort of influence by lynching off an anti-town faction. The fact that Ythill had interpreted Mafuyu's theory post as communication in and of itself would make the Mafuyu wagon push interesting

She says while voting me. Also, I feel like singing... The Everchanging Story... nah-nah-nah, nah-nah-nah, nah-nah-nah. (Atrayu!)

[Ythill]

Oh... I didn't even know there was a band by that name. Our generation gap is showing.

Anyway... I did some isos, and this game looks pretty easy.

AGar, Andrius, Fate, and NS are all prob-town. Mafuyu and nham are scum, though my read on the former is much stronger. The others (ani, Fishy, Unsight, and drmy) have posted too little for me to get a read.

Mod:

Have those prods gone out?

[Ythill]

You could always make fun of him for misspelling "vote."

[Ythill]

So, I guess ITT Mafuyu and Ythill vastly underestimate each others' intelligence.

I don't think Maf is dumb. And she's not the worst scum player I've seen, but she's close. I can definately read what she said as an innuendo fail.

Our reads are so different from each other it isn't even funny.

Perhaps a point in your favor. We'll see how it plays out. Andrius' opinion about mafia/SK hunting is wrong, but it seemed honest enough. How come you're voting the guy who made a bad theory argument instead of the girl who was putting it into practice? And how come you were subtly doing the same thing?

[Ythill]

I am not voting mafuyu because I can't see any scum player actually trying to intentionally breadcrum scum as you people are accusing him/her of.

Shenanigans. I'm not saying you should have voted her for the reason I gave, especially if you don't agree with it. However, she pointed out things that, if valid, would suggest I'm scum of either flavor, then jumped to the conclusion that I'm a SK. I don't understand why you don't find that suspicious. You voted Andrius for stating the belief but you ignored the fact that Mafuyu was actually doing it.

Please explain that last question.

The set-up speculation in your first post looked like exclusive hunting. Fate was the one who caught it, but I agree with him.

Why is nham scum?

Then? Vote qualification and SK hunting. Now there's the issue of cognitive dissonance as well, but let's see what he says about that.

[Ythill]

@Maf:

First, what do night actions have to do with anything? You said that you suspected me for saying there were three mafia, plus the ridiculous context argument (that looked more like deal-making on your part). You never said anything about NKs. Second, even if you had based your conclusion on NK speculation, why couldn't I be a GF in the scenarios you gave?

You are so busted. Again.

@nham:

It's perfectly clear why Mafuyu was suspicious of me. Look at #58. She stated that she thought me saying, "it's nice to know we're dealing with 3 mafia," was a slip. Then she went on to suggest that my jab at NS ("You already know my alignment, silly. Are you pissed that Reck protected me last night?") was Yth-SK trying to make a deal with the mob. Nothing even close to her latest excuse that you have accepted without question. Playing dumb doesn't suit you, I've argued with you enough in GD to know how sharp you are.

Wait! Fate was saying that to me? Wow... Because Mafuyu said something about a set-up speculation in her post immediately preceding Fate's post, I assumed Fate was referring to Mafuyu.

I read it that way at first too but it didn't make sense to me in that context. So I scrolled up to your post and noticed how your speculation devolved into suggestions that a SK was holding his kill and whatnot, like you were reaching for reasons to believe in a second kill that never happened. I'm not positive that's what Fate meant but it made more sense to me that way, and it doesn't really matter because it lead me to the tell no matter what he meant.

[Ythill]

GFs are immune to all NKs.

[Ythill]

But whatever. Explain why you changed your story.

[Ythill]

Wow, lotsa ninjas.

I hadn't seen that before, but you're assuming that Ythill was targetted by a non-Vig.

I've been thinking about this. At the begining of D1, the most reasonable assumption seemed to be no-vig, no-SK. Operating under that assumption, I figured that Maf was unlikely to be scum because of me as the hypothetical kill choice, which she's already admitted to. Then she started acting scummy and, like I said, I stumbled on the Reck-protect idea because I still think Mafuyu's scumteam would have been all over me. Ergo, my entertaining the idea of a failed NK is contingient on my belief that Mafuyu is scum. So why is

she

making the assumption?

Seriously, can

anyone

explain a reason other than her being scum?

[Ythill]

Thanks for the complement? Or insult?

Neither. Accusation. And you're doing it again.

The speculation I was referring to where Ythill thought I was mentioning nham was Mafuyu's initial "CLAIM HOW MANY TS GUIZ" which was terribad no matter how you slice it.

Terribad, yes, but what made it seem like SK fishing?

[Ythill]

Hey! That was my attempt at humor! Because your accusation could be viewed to include both an insult and a compliment. See, funny! I think the joke fell flat...

unvote

I'm not ready to lynch and therefore not ready for a claim. We have four people who need to post content. Anyone up for a lurker wagon?

[Ythill]

We only reached two postable game days midnight last night. Ani posted, Unsight is V/LA.

Mod:

drmyshottyizsik still hasn't posted at all.

Heh, good ninja Andrius, but I think we should try to get him replaced.

[Ythill]

...let's not completely shove Mafuyu off the backburner.

Of course not. She's likley scum, but she's not the only one.

[Ythill]

@Fate:

Okay but you still need to answer the question. If she'd said "initial" instead of UNSPOKEN, how would it have been SK fishing?

[Ythill]

Also, why haven't you voted for Mafuyu?

[Ythill]

I said why I unvoted. I'm wondering why Fate was willing to hammer but then didn't place a vote once she dropped to L-2. It's a valid question.

[Ythill]

@AGar:

Shush. I want to read his answer.

@Shotty:

Are you the same player as SttB? Any opinions on the rest of the game?

[Ythill]

I smell a rat.

Mafuyu's letter-claim does not explain her behavior. If she is a child with a conditional mod-confirm, she should do that now. If she isn't, her complete lack of town reads and buddying (aka Mason breadcrumbs) demonstrates that she is lying. This is further suggested by the number of people who have attacked her and the lack of a coherent defense from her supposed partner. I'm kinda short on time right now but fully intend to do a detailed reread on this subject within the next 24 hours.

I don't see much benefit in Maf claiming the number of Ms because the chance that she actually knows this information is even lower than the chance that she's telling the truth. However, it

may

be helpful for nhammen, who is connected subtly to Mafuyu, to claim whether he is her mason partner or not. Opinions on this?

Anyway, while we're working this out, I'll put my vote back into play.
VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[Ythill]

Ohey, I just remembered this post:

I've been thinking about this. At the begining of D1, the most reasonable assumption seemed to be no-vig, no-SK. Operating under that assumption, I figured that Maf was unlikely to be scum because of me as the hypothetical kill choice, which she's already admitted to. Then she started acting scummy and, like I said, I stumbled on the Reck-protect idea because I still think Mafuyu's scumteam would have been all over me. Ergo, my entertaining the idea of a failed NK is contingient on my belief that Mafuyu is scum. So why is she making the assumption?

Seriously, can

anyone

explain a reason other than her being scum?

This was me inviting people to defend Maf. Since then, seven people who are not her/myself have posted without doing so. Leaving only Unsight and ani as believable mason partners (plus nhammen, due to context and earlier connections). Unsight voted for her in his only post.

Ergo, unless nhammen or ani claim Mafuyu as a mason partner or the mod confirms her as a child, she's 100% scum.

[Ythill]

@Maf:

Poppycack. It's extremely obvious that nobody other than ani or nahammen can be masons with you so a full-claim presents no risk at all. Stalling at this point is scummy as hell. Either name one of them as your mason partner for verification or die.

UNVOTE: drmyshottyizsik
VOTE: Mafuyu

[Ythill]

@Unsight:

Mafuyu’s claim is that “at least one M exists”. Now, if Mafuyu is an Innocent Child, I see no harm in claiming her, and getting the mod to confirm it. If not, I see no harm in her claiming the size of his mason group. I may be missing something (and no claim should come before we’ve discussed it), but AFAIC Mafuyu should be claiming which it is.

Mason with Maf

.

@nham:

BS. It was very obvious and no potential scumteam in this game contains a combination of players that wouldn't have figured it out of their own. Besides, having a claimed mason pair forces the scum to choose between NKing them and looking for more important power roles. Stalling and softclaiming are both uber scummy here. Maf names a mason buddy in her next post or she dies.

[Ythill]

unvote

You have left practically no other choice. Which I am very annoyed at you for.

Get over it please. If you are masons, we have initiated a game of chicken with the scum where they have to either leave two potential confirmed townies alive which will become more problematic as the endgame approaches, or waste two NKs that could be used for hunting other PRs while creating a situation where one of you is exlpicitly and undeniably confirmed for a short time. If you are scum, we have created a situation where a cardflip from one of you gives us a 100% scum lynch on the other with no way to talk your way out of it. The play was clearly optimal. I am sorry that I had to force your hand as overtly as I did, because it wasn't very polite, but I am playing to win.

@Maf:

I don't understand, what have I breadcrumbed? Cognitive dissonance is a reliable indicator of ulterior motives.

I need to step back from my tunnel vision for a minute and take a fresh look at the game. The mason claims do explain much of nham's problematic behavior. I will check my reads over the next day or two and try to look at things from a fresh perspective.

[Ythill]

I have:

@Unsight:

Mafuyu’s claim is that “at least one M exists”. Now, if Mafuyu is an Innocent Child, I see no harm in claiming her, and getting the mod to confirm it. If not, I see no harm in her claiming the size of his mason group. I may be missing something (and no claim should come before we’ve discussed it), but AFAIC Mafuyu should be claiming which it is.

Mason with Maf

.

I don't like the admitted tunneling of Ythill, but that's not necessarily telling, just unsettling.

When I unvoted Maf, I had trouble figuring out where to vote. I thought maybe shotty, but I keep coming around to Maf-is-scum. I don't know what to call that except tunneling, sorry. If you think it was just unsettling rather than telling, why mention it? How does mudslinging help the town?

I still haven't done any rereading and may not tonight since it's my birthday and I might be too drunk.

[Ythill]

@Maf:

I asked you a question in #186.

...please go after Mafucker when I'm dead.

So for now I think what the town needs to realize is that the main two suspects are both claiming town, or mason and either one if killed will be a mislynch.

Please explain what changed your mind about Mafuyu between these two posts.

So now I want to know why NS, unsight and ythil havent retracted their votes.

I already did, before your post. Why would it be a problem if I hadn't? Why aren't you paying attention?

Yeah... that doesn't answer my question.

Yes it does. First, you don't have to agree with my resons for them to be my reasons. Second, you'll note that he said "...if Mafuyu is an Innocent Child..." which would not come honestly from a mason-partner and didn't sound like a lie to me.

@Agar:

That makes sense. Thanks.

[Ythill]

I don't think you understand what I mean by CD in general, but I can see how you made an interpretation error due to context in this instance. To answer your unspoken question, I'm never going to make the assumption that connection evidence is indicatitive of masons in a semi-open, especially when I see other scummy behavior from both individuals. I'm still keeping an eye on both of you post-claim. I'm certainly not going to ignore tells without a claim.

[Ythill]

Good news for y'all, I didn't end up going out.

What's your read on fishy and why?

Sorry I missed this earlier. At the time you asked, I was entirely null on him. However, I just finished rereading and he's sullied himself a bit. See below.

Okay, first, a word about Maf/nham... As I've said, the mason claim explains most of nham's problematic behavior. However, Mafuyu still looks really scummy to me. I know that scum mason claims are a dangerous gambit but I'm also keeping in mind that Maf is a clumsy player. If she was fake-claiming, her original plan was a lot less risky than the corner I backed she and her partner into. For now, I'm going to back off but if the scum decide not to kill her (especially if they kill me instead) the unconfirmed mason team is going to become a thorn in the side of the town before endgame. My advice is that, if a cop exists, he should investigate Mafuyu sometime before potential LYLO. Whether she's scum or town, it's a two-for one investigation. If she's town and is NKed on the night of investigation, we still get a confirmed innocent out of the deal, and just me suggesting this should increase the chances that she or nham will be NKed ASAP. 'Nuff said, except to note that I will

not

be considering either of them confirmed town (as regards other reads) until we get a flip.

Of the remaining eight players, Andrius and Fishy look the most suspicious to me. Sorry Fate, shotty has easy mislynch tattooed on his forehead and the opportunism during the collapse of the Maf wagon has me leaning town on him.

Andrius seemed clean in the early game but he waxed chatty once the heavy arguments started rolling. He buddied to me and (to a lesser extent) Fate, believed Maf's claim too easily, and seems more interested in setup speculation than scumhunting. A couple of posts ago, he claimed to have more suspects than Maf but, rereading him in iso, he could've fooled me.

Fishy was absent for while and, since he's been here, his only scumhunting has been an opportunistic vote on the VI.

VOTE: Andrius

[Ythill]

Shotty said why he voted Maf and they were good reasons.

[Ythill]

The first reason you quoted was a playstyle complaint that he said wasn't scummy, so I don't know why you're listing it, but will ask you: what purpose does that complaint serve for a scum agenda?

His first actual reason was a good point and I'm wondering why you didn't quote it. Maf dodging suspicion by making a joke about survivor claims and failing to explain her actions was scummy and, if I remember correctly, nobody else had pointed it out. So, AGar, why didn't you quote that reason? I agree that the lurking tell was weak, but that doesn't mean it was dishonest. The Maf-scum reasoning shotty quoted was accurate and was a large part of why I was driving her wagon. I should also point out that you understood my line of thought on the topic, and voted her shortly thereafter. Shall we look at your reasons for jumping on the same wagon?

Mafuyu wagon is looking better, mainly because Mafuyu is acting strange as hell.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mafuyu

And the rest of your case is that shotty claimed early, which serves a scum agenda how? Which is anything but a null mistake how? Meanwhile, everyone and their grandma is attacking him for the same null tells. What does that tell you about his alignment?

[Ythill]

Everyone and their grandma here is 4 of the 11 players.

The players who have voted for shotty or called him scummy are AGar, Andrius, Fate, you, Maf, NS, and myself. Unsight asked him a loaded question. The only players who haven't are lurker-ani and nham. Learn to count. And why the hell did you say out of 11? Does it matter whether shotty attacked himself?

The rest of your argument can be paraphrased thusly: shotty did things that I can see coming from town or scum but because it was L-1 my opinion is that he is scum. So... your argument is that town don't place L-1 votes?

Also, Ythill, what do you make of the lack of reading the thread and the contradictions his posts seem to make?

The former is null. I asked him about the latter and am awaiting an answer before passing judgement on it. Why didn't you answer my questions?

ALSO Ythill, you can't call people town based on the speed of their wagon. You just CAN'T.

I just DIDN'T.

-Lynch a VT (no more outing PRs)
-Lynch a VI (if not lynched he'll live till LyLo, and guess what happens there)
-Lynch a possible scum (You can't read his posts and not see scumtells left and right. His contradictions are absurd

I can get behind this to some extent, though I can also see how these same arguments apply to Mafuyu, with bonus information. My point here is not that we should lynch Mafuyu but, rather, that we should find a higher percentage lynch.

We can take it to MD after the game ends.

Fine with me.

Either you are lying about why you thought Fishy could not be my partner, or you believed some bad evidence.

This statement applies far more accurately to your own claim that you were considering posting the same thing as him.

I don't mean to buddy, I just like to talk to friend-type people.

This excuses your behavior towards Fate but not towards me, which you're still doing, BTW.

I believed Maf's claim because I have had lots of experience with Masons

At the time, it was not M(asons). It was M. You acknowledged the fact that she could be lying in your unvote post, but you never tried to ascertain whether she was, and started immediately basing your opinions on the assumption that she was telling the truth. I'll let the backpedal in your point 3) speak for itself.

@shotty:

Please answer my questions from #205.

[Ythill]

@Andrius:

You're glazing over the point: nobody had confirmed her claim at that time. Rather than attempt to confirm it, you simply believed it. Probably not worthy of mention from someone who was on the fence about her (like AGar was) but you seemed convinced she was scum.

@shotty:

I think you're wrong about Fate and I think your OMGUS seems real. You didn't really answer my question though. What was it that inspired you to accept the claim?

[Ythill]

shotty did things which scum have a motive to do, and which can can from either town or scum being stupid. So they would be scummy to some extent whether or not it was an L-1 vote. If it had been the first vote on a wagon, that scum motive would be weak and so it would be closer to null.

So... a VI does things that are null from a VI but which scum

might

have a reason to do, but since he does them @ L-1 he is scum. Again, your entire explanation revolves around the fact that scum are more likley than town to place L-1 votes which is simply not true.

As in, they aren't unlikely scumbuddies with shotty because of anything they've said about him, which is really what you are counting when you say that shotty is town because everyone and his grandma are attacking him.

No, it isn't. Let me explain why the numbers matter...

Timing is everything. If Maf is scum, her buddies were looking for a distraction wagon. If she is town, the scum on her wagon were looking for their next victim. It was important to them to find a parking place with lots of support. Note the various reactions to her wagon crumbling. Some people reread and looked for scum, some waffled, some jumped to

the next most popular target

, which was shotty. Fishing for this type of opportunism was why I voted him in the first place, and it worked.

[Ythill]

Actually...

UNVOTE: Andrius
VOTE: Fishythefish

The entirety of your play has been set-up/role speculation, opportunism, and defending a bad stance.

[Ythill]

My reasoning

does

mean that scum are more likely to place

bad

votes

...and which can can from either town or scum being stupid.

Also, your opinion that the vote was bad is... well... bad.

My set-up/role speculation has been highly relevant to things happening now. My "bad stance" is that if you make a contrived case to put someone at L-1, you are more likely scum.

All irrelevant. Point being, not only does 100% of your play potentially further a scum agenda, but your excuses do not explain why you're playing this way

in lieu of actually scumhunting

.

More votes on opportuna please.

[Ythill]

@Fishy:

I'm done going in circles about this. It's clear why I'm voting you and why others should.

@Andrius:

Could have been != was. Think about this, if I was as accepting as you were, she'd still be unclaimed and uber-scummy right now. And, apparently, you'd be okay with that.

[Ythill]

That also happens to be why Mafuyu didn't want to out even so much as the number of masons in Mafuyu's group, as confirmation is something that can be handled over the course of days, especially so far from deadline.

You are incorrect about the optimal play. Nham and I are comfortable saving this theory argument for post-game. Are you?

Ythill's threat to lynch Mafuyu if more information wasn't provided felt really scummy to Mafuyu (quicklynch much?)

This is really funny. I was already voting for you. Without the help of others, my threats were entirely idle but you claimed anyway. Now you say it felt scummy?

one more time, for luck

I'm not going through the point-by-point but here's my synopsis again so that you can see where it differs from yours. Obv-scum Maf was @ L-2 pre-claim. Shotty wandered in and caught up, dropped L-1 onto her while demonstrating his familiarity with the most important points of the case and adding a couple. He got a backlash of suspicion. Maf claimed and the wagon on her disintegrated, meaning that scum were forced to move their votes. It's extremely likely that at least one is on shotty no matter what his alignment is and he's slightly more likely town than scum.

I can accept that you disagree with me about dr's vote, but it seems that even if you

agreed

it was a terrible vote you would still think my stance is bad. Is that correct?

You want my hypothetical opinion? That's silly. I think you're scum because of a number of factors, and I think there are scum attacking shotty for a number of factors. My

actual

opinion can be found in the vote count.

I find it very hypocritical of Ythill to vote FTF for "setup/role speculation" when until the Mafuyu wagon gained any seriousness, that's all he did.

Exaggerate much? I speculated about the NK and the target of our dead doc which is

not

setup speculation. In doing so I considered the vig/mason question for a second and thanked nham for pointing out the number of scum (while shushing him). Hell dude, I didn't even speculate about the set-up when Maf claimed. Besides, you're missing the point. Fishy is plenty curious about the setup

but not about people's alignments.

Could we

please

speed up the leans and get some more votes on Fishy? Kthx.

[Ythill]

Very

interesting VC. Remember this one tomorrow.

[Ythill]

End of Ythill's 270 - It is ROLE speculation though, which I did mention.

Who's role did I speculate about? Reck's role was confirmed and he's the only one I mentioned.

You haven't said anything to show I'm not interested in people's alignments.

You haven't said anything to show that you are. Your questions to me are pointless. Compare your own play to that of Fate and AGar: that should answer all of them.

@Fate:

I'm liking your posts in this game and I wouldn't be entirely opposed to a NS wagon because my read on him is fluctating around neutral at this point. However, now that you're seeing things my way regarding shotty, please check out Fishy's iso and consider joining me over here.

@Unsight:

I don't think your AGar vote is going anywhere. Though I'm tempted to OMGUS by what looks like a misrep of my early game, the majority of his play makes him look town to me. Please move your vote. I'd prefer if you moved it to Fishy, obv, but I'd be satisfied if you added steam to any of the wagons.

@Shotty:

Fate's attacks on you were overt. He was scumhunting before them, and is exploring other theories now. I do understand the temptation to OMGUS but, if you're looking for scum on your wagon, it's Fishy. Please move your vote to him (or to NS).

[Ythill]

Ohey look who's scumhunting.

@NS:

You know I'm brilliant, what does that have to do with my alignment?

UNVOTE: Fishy
VOTE: Nobody Special

I'm headed out to work in a bit, and I'd like to have some exciting reading material when I get home. This does

not

mean that Fishy is off the hook.

[Ythill]

Long night @ work and I spent most of my energy on another game but I'm glad to find the exciting reading material I was hoping for.

@Fate:

The only light I see is the eerie glow of whatever it is you are smoking. I don't see a shotty-NS link but a Fishy-NS link is not out of the question. I don't get your dilemma where NS-scum==Fish-town. Explain please? As for the point about Fishy's read about me being clouded, it's not like he made some startling deduction. I'd already said I was tunneling and, even if I hadn't, it was obvious.

@Maf+nham:

Why aren't you two voting in a bloc? Please start doing so. Also, nham, why are you obv-coaching the Fish? It's strange and too heavy-handed to be incidental.

AGar is town, BTW.

[Ythill]

While bloc-voting increases the strength of mason-supported wagons, he's still entitled to his own opinions.

Of course he is and so are you but the two of you should be discussing those opinions and compromising with each other. Vote grouping is very good for the town.

[Ythill]

This game needs more activity.

UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: Fishythefish

...please tell me more about your town read on AGar because I'm not seeing it.

I'd rather not because it's behavior-based and he's in no danger of being lynched. I'm fine with you suspecting him.

[Ythill]

This game needs more activity.

[Ythill]

Hello obv-alt. Your playstyle seems familliar. Anyway, welcome.

I'll gladly wagon Andrius with you when he gets back. Going to need to start working on consensus soon though. Do you have other suspicions?

[Ythill]

I was planning on calling you Justa.

Still not much happening in here. We should start moving toward lynch consensus. Why are NS and Andrius parked on a flaker's replacement?

[Ythill]

Oh, nvm... it looks like both went V/LA before the intent to replace was announced. Sigh. Weekends...

[Ythill]

Well, I was seeing some good pro-Town play from a player that I had been considering voting. It changed my mind completely, and I decided to show him what he was doing right.

So what you're saying is that you and Maf aren't actually masons and that Nobody Special is your scumbuddy. There's going to be a whole lot of "oh shit" is your QT tonight, but it's not going to help. GG.

UNVOTE: Fishy
VOTE: Nobody Special

[Ythill]

Umm... what? Explain how any comment I have made there made

that

leap happen.

Lovin' the, "OMG how did you catch us!?"

First point, you two aren't playing like outed masons and when I asked you about that, you were both like, "Mmmm... I don't know." Second point, when I shifted pressure from Fishy to NS, Maf voted Fishy and you obv-buddied to him. And when I asked you about that you were like, "Mmmm... I don't know, but buddy-buddy-buddy." I dodn't even need the part where Maf links NS to Fishy or where you second-slot NS, but those lead to the same conclusion.

I'm serious folks. This is game over. More NS votes please, unless y'all trust me enough to lynch a "mason" today.

[Ythill]

There's just too many reasons that claiming mason with one of your scumbuddies Day 1 is an issue. I can go into further detail if you'd like.

I understand the reasons but I don't think you're aware of all the nuances here. Maf is clumsy as scum and she put nham in a position where he had to either confirm her or bus her + deal with the question of why she thought he'd confirm her. It's not like they went there as a strategy. I backed her into a corner, she backed him into one. But whatever... I'm fine letting them live today. I just hope that killing me tonight won't buy them a ticket to endgame. Contrary to popular opinion, their alignments have

not

been confirmed.

So can we lynch NS then?

[Ythill]

Your town skillz are irrelevant in discussing your play as scum.

@Justa:

Now I'm trying to figure out who's alt you are.

[Ythill]

@Justa:

It matters because I'm curious. I'm a sucker for a good puzzle. Give me three guesses by PM once the game is over?

@Maf:

Two games. You're scum in this one.

[Ythill]

Heh. Look who's playing like a mason all-of-a-sudden.

[Ythill]

Stop it. You two are both town.

The scum are Maf-nham-NS. Have I not said this?

[Ythill]

Can you at least put your vote on NS while you think?

[Ythill]

Difference is, Fishy thought he caught

one

scum. And he was wrong.

[Ythill]

@nham:

Can you guess why your buddy voted for NS with such peculiar timing? I can.

[Ythill]

@nham:

Can you guess why your buddy voted for NS with such peculiar timing? I can.

[Ythill]

@nham:

Can you guess why your buddy voted for NS with such peculiar timing? I can.

[Ythill]

@mod:

Delete the extra posts please. Damned sketchy internet.

[Ythill]

Just thought maybe since you're not suffernig from "tunnel vision" you could explain her scummy behavior.

[Ythill]

I was firmly convinced that Maf & nhamm were Masons; I'm not at all following how they slipped from that place in Ythill's eyes.

The bigger mystery is how they slipped into that place. I'm pretty resigned to the fact that we're not lynching them today, so long as y'all remember this after I'm gone.

Let's take a look at your input though... hmmm... called the towniest guy in the game town, explained that your counter-wagon has an alignment, forgot that you're not supposed to know I'm town yet, and made a wish list of things you'll be dead before doing. Yup. You're scum.

C'mon people, this isn't rocket science.

[Ythill]

For a limited time only, I will eat one delicious banana for you in exchange for a NS vote. Mmmmmm. Vicarious bananas.

[Ythill]

@Fate:

You've obviously never seen me eat a banana.

My train of thought should be obvious. I never really stopped being suspicious of Maf. Nham obv-coaching Fishy was the final piece of the puzzle and now it's all very clear to me.

Edit: Ohey look who's bussing.

[Ythill]

If my vote has to move back to him to get such a reaction, it will.

Somebody sounds nervous.

What's your thought on my subject?

[Ythill]

Your theory is ad hom or a vague gambit you can't explain? Nice.

There is no gambit.

[Ythill]

Hell yes. I shall eat a banana for you, sir.

Fate, AGar, Justa, the three of you seem very townie to me. If I'm not around tomorrow, crawl up those "mason" butts with a microscope with a magnifying glass. Thanks.

[Ythill]

Heh. Can you tell it's been a long day?

Either a microscope or magnifying glass is sufficient. You probably don't need one attatched to the other.

[Ythill]

Sorry dude, no webcam.

[Ythill]

You not believing a mason claim is acceptable, but your pushing it this hard is more than just odd.

Then you don't know me very well.

I'd like to live through the night, so here's an argument you can use against me tomorrow. As scum, I like to bus early. If NS was my buddy, maybe I sacrificed him to get enough town points to win the game of mason-chicken I started with myself. I'm sure you two can make it even better if you work on it in your QT.

[Ythill]

Thoughts for tomorrow:

• Maf still hasn't explained why she was assuming two kills. My assumption relied 100% on my Maf-scum read, so if she was just believing me, she was believing herself to be scum.
  
• Nhammen didn't leave any mason crumbs. If he tries to claim that his behavior toward Maf was breadcrumbing, remember that buddy behavior only indicates a connection, not an alignment.
  
• Look closely at their response to me switching my vote to NS. Maf reacted badly and voted Fishy immediately, hoping I'd switch back. Nham was more subtle, he knew I was looking for information so he tried to cover Maf's vote by linking himself to Fishy. We
  know
  they are a team. Their tactics are nothing like a mason team and everything like a scum team, and neither of them could explain why.
  
• Don't forget that a cop investigation on them is two for one. Utilize that before LYLO, but don't be blinded by it. One of them could be a GF.
  
• Look how quick the wagon went. Andrius was @ L-1 and he barely got a post in by the time NS was dead. There was scum on his wagon. His hammer suggests the possibility that both were. Now look back at the votes of our "masons." Maf made full use of her second slotting (she RVed him too). Nham left himself a back-door to swap over to Andrius.

Goodluck and goodnight.

[Ythill]

I'm stunned by that cardflip. WTF?

I guess I need to reread. Two scumfilps and a pair of confirmed masons isn't bad news though.

[Ythill]

I'm not going to bother checking your set-up calcuations, nham. We've got two unrelated scum amongst six players. If your assumption about Andrius != GF is correct, then we've got 2-3 days to find both of them. While I agree that finding mafia will be easier, we should definately search for both before ending the day.

I started some wagon analysis last night but I was too tired to make sense of it. Will work on it again today and post it either before I leave for work or when I get home tonight.

@AGar ninja:

I'll be looking into Unsight (and others) after I'm finished with the VCs.

[Ythill]

Mafuyu

(3):

Ythill

,

Nobody Special

,

Andrius

Fate (1):

animorpherv1

drmyshottyizsik (1): Fishythefish

Nobody Special

(4):

Mafuyu

,

nhammen

, Fate, AGar

not voting (2):
drmyshottyizsik
Unsight

Early wagons are bait for distancing. Fate and AGar get scumpoints here.

Mafuyu

(4):

Nobody Special

,

Andrius

, AGar, Unsight
Fate (1):

animorpherv1

Ythill

(1):

Mafuyu

drmyshottyizsik (1): Fishythefish

Nobody Special

(2): Fate,

nhammen

not voting (2):
drmyshottyizsik

Ythill

I really doubt AGar-scum piles on behind his two buddies, though it's possible Unsight did. Someone (Andrius?) made a comment that scum are unlikley to all be on the same wagon. Was it before or after this VC? If before, Unsight gets scumpoints.

Mafuyu

(4):

Nobody Special

, Unsight, drmyshottyizsik,

Ythill

Fate (1):

animorpherv1

drmyshottyizsik (4): Fishythefish, Fate,

Mafuyu

, AGar

Nobody Special

(1):

nhammen

not voting (1):

Andrius

Andrius unvoted but didn't shift to shotty. One of shotty/Fishy/Fate/AGar is a buddy.

Mafuyu

(0):
Fate (1):

animorpherv1

animorpherv1

(2):

Andrius

,

Nobody Special

drmyshottyizsik (4): Fishythefish, Fate,

Mafuyu

, AGar

Andrius

(1):

Ythill

Nobody Special

(1):

nhammen

AGar (1): Unsight

not voting (1):
drmyshottyizsik

Two scum all by themselves on a lurker wagon? Either shotty is their buddy or he's town they felt was going to be lynched and a buddy was already on the wagon. This backs up the conclusion from the last wagon.

Just a Bit Off-Center

(2):

Andrius

,

Nobody Special

Fishythefish (3):

Mafuyu

, drmyshottyizsik,

Ythill

Andrius

(2):

Just a Bit Off-Center

, Fishythefish

Nobody Special

(3):

nhammen

, Fate, AGar
AGar (1): Unsight

Why didn't one of them support the Fishy lynch? Staying parked on a replaced lurker with suspicion building against both of them seems really strange. We need to look at this one in context.

Just a Bit Off-Center (1):

Andrius

Andrius (3): Fishythefish, AGar, drmyshottyizsik

Nobody Special

(6): Fate,

Ythill

,

Mafuyu

,

Just a Bit Off-Center

,

nhammen

,

Nobody Special

AGar (1): Unsight

This VC is awesome. Why would NS self-hammer rather than reserve the hammer for a buddy, especially as a goon? Abysmal play or Fate-scum? I plan on looking at isos too but this VC makes Fate look really bad, especially combined with everything else above.

VOTE: Fate

VCs in general point to Unsight or AGar as SK. The former because he was playing very shy with his vote movement; the latter because he was hopping around between big wagons like he didn't care about the lynch. But, again, I intend to look at isos to double-check all of this.

[Ythill]

Was looking over my last post and noticed that I missed some coloration and the related analysis...

Just a Bit Off-Center

(1):

Andrius

Andrius

(3): Fishythefish, AGar, drmyshottyizsik

Nobody Special

(6): Fate,

Ythill

,

Mafuyu

,

Just a Bit Off-Center

,

nhammen

,

Nobody Special

AGar (1): Unsight

Look at the Andrius wagon. If Fate is not scum, NS may have been hammering to freeze a bus on Andrius, because a late shift to him while NS is being pushed into the noose seems safe. Note that the same four candidtaes are sullied here as earlier.

@Mafuyu:

If you don't like me being green, do your own homework.

[Ythill]

Ythill is the surprise surprise last scum. I've suspected him for awhile for that whole Mason-outing shebangabang earlier...

That's interesting, because shortly after I pressured Maf into claiming her buddy, you made this post...

This is good posting, and the sort of thing we need to talk about before the day ends (with a drmy lynch), and makes me replace Animorph with Andrius on my suspect list, BUT ani still needs to post more to erase doubt.

ALSO Ythill, you can't call people town based on the speed of their wagon. You just CAN'T. That's how I won (draw -_-) that one game referenced in MD. We wagonned our lamebuddy (well none of the final scum were in the game at that time, but) to L-1 D1 quickly, and then everyone made excuses for that slot's play from then on because of that.

PLUS he claimed VT. PLUS he's a detriment to town if he is somehow town, so this borders on two or three good policy lynches that are all pro-town moves for D1:
-Lynch a VT (no more outing PRs)
-Lynch a VI (if not lynched he'll live till LyLo, and guess what happens there)
-Lynch a possible scum (You can't read his posts and not see scumtells left and right. His contradictions are absurd)
^THIS is why drmy needs to die today Ythill.

...in which you cheerleaded a case I made against your buddy, and then tried to talk me out of it in a manner that suggested you were reading me as town. A little while later, you made this statement...

The first gives me good vibes from Fishy because I think he's right in his read of you and your being clouded.

...which seems a lot like another assumption that I am town. Then, a little while later, you made this post...

YTHILL

Have you seen the light?

Can my NS/Drmy pairing be any more plausible with my Fishy town read?

...which, again, seems like you're talking to Yth-town. So I'm wondering why you're now lying about your past suspicions. Could you explain that please?

Some other points I noticed about Fate while looking these up. He was spastacularly opposed to the Andrius wagon but all for hanging NS the goon. He linked NS-scum to a variety of possible buddies but my favorite instance is the one where he tied both of his buddies to the VI...

Normally I wouldn't be able to see Andrius and NS as scum together jumping on the ani wagon, but I agree with Ythill about Andrius' ISO play and them wagoning together for ani real hard would make perfect sense if drmy was in fact scum with them.

And, ohey, look who he was agreeing with: the same guy he's now claiming was his suspect at that time.

@Fate:

Do me a favor and give us your best shot @ SK hunting before we lynch you. You've lost this game, but you can still help us win it.

[Ythill]

And really it would totally make sense for a desperate to pull that

Go look at my scum meta. I'm not an idiot.

[Ythill]

I still haven't done my rereads and probably will not have time for a day or two. I'm noticing a trend in games lately though, where I do a shit-ton of work and everyone else coasts by. And I'm tired of it. I'd like to see other people working on this puzzle. There are two baddies left among six players that include me, maybe those numbers will motivate y'all to do some of the legwork yourselves? I'd especially like to see the masons getting down to business, since we don't have to worry about them lying to us.

This really points to Fate or Agar (or, from other people's POVs, me) as their scumbuddy.

Or shotty. Not the most likely option considering what happened yesterday, but I'm not going to cross him off the list just yet. I need to reread with the flips and confirmed masons in mind.

We already have this game wrapped up Ythill, even if we DO lynch me first.

Because tomorrow town DONT let Ythill talk his way out of it. When I flip town...

Tactics like these are what I love about your playstyle. But aren't you jumping the gun a little?

The rest of your points they are just confirmation bias using the flips you have

Confirmation bias caused me to change from calling you the towniest guy in the game to voting you? I don't think that term means what you think it means.

I've already said Drmy is likely SK.

Right, but I'm not interested in your off-the-cuff read. I'd like to see you to put some work into it. Into finding the last mafia too, if you're town. It's not D1 anymore.

[Ythill]

Heh. The difference being that linking the goon you're bussing to everyone and his grandma

is

scummy. You know, if you put half the effort into finding the SK as you did discrediting the guy voting you, you could get some of those townie points you're whining about. And you still don't know what confirmation bias means because, if you did, then by accusing me of it you are

still assuming that I am town.

If I'm scum, I don't have any beliefs about your alignment, I know it for a fact and what I did there was

fabrication

. You know, like you just did.

The backpedaling later to include who "is scum" in the event of a Fate town flip...

I didn't think I'd have to spoon feed this to you, but my statement had nothing to do with your flip. I intend to read isos before we hang someone and, if you're town, we'll probably figure that out before the lynch.

[Ythill]

Yesterday, Andrius claimed not to know that the godfather is NK immune. Either he was faking this, or he was the roleblocker. It seems to me like that would be a silly thing to fake, so I'm leaning roleblocker for the moment.

I was laying around, thinking about this game and considering going to look for cop breadcrumbs when I had a *facepalm* moment. Andrius had to be the RB

because

the GF is NK immune. Duh. Since both living scum are investigation immune, cop breadcrumbs are a dead end.

Will hopefully have time and energy for rereading sometime tomorrow.

[Ythill]

Hmmmmm... going to have to remember this AGar post. Our numbers suggest that neither scum wants to lynch the other today.

[Ythill]

Quick recap of events. Based on voting records, I suggest that Fate is scum. He asserts that I am scum instead and that he has been suspicious of me for a long time. I post evidence that he is either lying about his beliefs now, or was doing so on D1. He

admits that he was lying

, but claims that he was doing so for a town reason: buddying to his suspect. I suppose that makes sense but, during the argument, he pooh-poohs a new piece of evidence by accusing me of a mistake that, by definition, town can make but scum cannot. Which, of course, suggests that he's

still

lying about what he believes. His excuse this time?

OBVIOUSLY everything you are saying is just a fabrication of suspicion because you are scum, but I don't need to use that in my arguements because we're here pretending everyone else is town and seeing holes in people's logics. THATS WHAT MAFIA IS. SO you being "supposedly town" are using confirmation bias as a means to push your case on me, WHICH IS SCUMMY because you are twisting all of my posts to make your little picture perfect INSTEAD OF searching for the truth of what is going on AKA WHAT TOWN DOES.

So his excuse, apparently, is that the game of mafia consists of pretending that your suspects are town while arguing that they are scum. Fate was just being hypothetical. You know, because he made the mistake on purpose, as part of playing mafia correctly.

WTF?

Do I need to throw in the part about how you seem particularly obsessed with finding the SK?

Do lies like these normally work? I am voting for the person who I believe most likely to be mafia. I am pressuring the person I see as most likely mafia. Meanwhile, I'm keeping an eye open for the SK and suggesting that

you

put some work into finding him, since my theory is that you already know that you are mafia. I suppose that's confusing to you because, according to your latest nonsense, I should be pretending that I think you're town.

@AGar:

Obviously we still have work to do but the evidence against Fate is compelling. Though I haven't examined my own vote patterns and a full comparison is up to the rest of you to work through, my place on the NS wagon should be at least somewhat compelling to all of you that don't know my alignment. It strikes me as odd that you would assume our argument to be town-v-town so easily. Your stance is especially interesting in light of the fact that neither scum wants to lynch the other today.

Anyway... I'm off to do some rereading.

[Ythill]

Hi AGar. Goodposting. I finished isos of the dead scum and, in light of them, I will be taking the points you made into account.

NS

Voted Maf, me, and ani. His behavior toward those three people was full of questions and challenges. He exhibited similar behavior towards Fate and, to a lesser extent, shotty and Fishy. NS mostly ignored his known buddy; the one comment directed at Andrius was a warning about the possibility of multiple docs. The othe living, non-confirmed players ignored by NS were AGar, and Unsight.

Fate is (as much as it pains me to say so) very Town. (I don't like him as a player, just on principle, so.)

Andrius is somewhat of a mystery to me. He's playing a bit differently than I know, and yet he's not scummy. This could mean he's neither town nor scum, but I'm not good at reading things like this.

I was firmly convinced that Maf & nhamm were Masons; I'm not at all following how they slipped from that place in Ythill's eyes. Again, I'm a bit slow, so it may sink in eventually.

AGar's on vacation; drmyshotty is being his usual VI self; and I don't have good reads on anyone else. I do need to read fishy in iso.

NS covered all of the players in three catergories. First we have the over-qualified, nervous-sounding opening reads on Fate and Andrius. Second, we have the vague name-dropping that progresses to excusing poor play. Finally we have Justa and Unsight, who are forgotten as "anyone else." This is a gambit post, and it's unlikley that we'll find buddies lumped together. Note that the bookend catergories have two names each. IMO, this post points to Unsight as mafia. However, note that Fishy seems to have been moved from third catergory to the second as an afterthought. Scum realizing he needed to at least mention his other buddy before he hit submit? It's a possibility.

Conclusions: Fate and shotty get non-mafia points. Fishy and AGar get points both ways. Unsight comes out of this analysis looking worse than anyone else.

Andrius

Voted ani and Maf. Unsight was voted during the RVS. Andrius buddied to myself, nham, and Fate. He mentioned NS a few times including a light defense but only made three statements directed at him, one of which was a jab and two of which were setup speculation. He behaved in a similar manner towards shotty: occasional mentions, light defense, a couple of jabs directed at him. Though he responded to direct questions and accusations, Andrius mostly ignored AGar, Unsight, and Fishy.

3) I do, actually, have more suspects. But its more of a gut feeling type thing. Mafuyu was definitely a suspect. Gut said AGar was scum for awhile due to him voting you early D1 (because you're evidentially a really big town asset, stuff like that). NS is also probable scum. (I'm willing to make a case on him, ISO, in requested.) His posts are short and trite- often with less content than me and Dr. Definitely semi-lurking here.

Under pressure, Andrius listed these suspects. The inclusion of NS leads me to believe that the name of his other buddy is absent. Interestingly, he didn't list Fishy but went on to post a couple of very weak attacks against him. This post was the only time Andrius mentioned Fishy, except to comment on his setup speculation in #166. Also not listed are Agar, Unsight, and Fate. In #163, Andrius made a setup comment to NS that seemed a little risky from scum; in the same post, he made an unneceasrrily reduntant setup comment addressed to AGar, which suggests that AGar is not mafia.

Conclusions: AGar gets non-mafia points. Andrius gave mixed messages on Fate and shotty with the former coming out of it a little cleaner and the latter a little dirtier. Unsight gets minor scumpoints. Fishy stands out as the most suspect in this iso.

Overview

• Fishy: The VCs suggest he is mafia. Somewhat sullied by NS iso. Most suspicious based on Andrius iso. Prima facie scumread from D1.
  
• Unsight: VCs suggest he is unlikley to be mafia but likley to be SK. Most suspicious from NS iso. Mildly suspicious from Andrius iso. Null through D1, which is strange.
  
• Fate: Heavily suggested to be mafia based on vote patterns. Cleared by NS iso. Mostly cleared by Andrius iso. Town read D1.
  
• shotty: The VCs sully him a bit. Cleared by NS iso. Dirtied somewhat by Andrius iso. Town lean from D1, due to being a likley mislynch target.
  
• AGar: Sullied a bit by VC analysis but also on the likley SK list. MotR from NS iso. Cleared by Andrius iso. Town read D1.

I still intend to reread the five players in my lynch pool, probably in the order I listed them above.

UNVOTE: Fate
VOTE: Fishythefish

[Ythill]

1. - As discussed above, I think he reads way too much into 398. I also don’t see at all why he clears shotty based on the NS iso.
   
2. - I don’t understand where some of his conclusions from the Andrius iso come from. In particular, where does me being “most suspicious”, Unsight being “mildly suspicious” and shotty being “dirtied somewhat” come from?
   
3. - On an individual level, I obviously disagree with your read on me. We’ve talked about that read, and frankly I still don’t really get it. Other than that, the only individual read I have a problem with is shotty; with the scumflips we’ve had, I don’t see any reason at this stage to think he was a likely mislynch rather than a likely scumlynch.

(numbers added for clarity, obv)

1. Shotty is cleared by the NS iso because NS is a creature of habit and he was treating shotty the same as he treated three town players; his mention in the gambit post was null.
   
2. You were sullied by the Andrius read beacause he ignored you but made a couple of quick, weak attacks against you when he was pressured for reads. It looked like he was feeling the spotlight and realized he hadn't sent any suspicion your way. Unsight got mild scumpoints for being RVed and then ignored. Shotty got scumpoints for being treated in a manner similar to the way Andrius was treating NS, but lost some of them because Andrius mentioned him in the suspect list with NS. All of this stuff should be obvious if you read my analysis.
   
3. The D1 reads I stated in my analysis have not been adjusted for cardflips and whatnot. I'll be looking closer at that stuff when I reread the lynch pool isos. I simply copied over my reads from yesterday as one more factor to consider in deciding the order. Like I said, the D1 read that bothers me the most is Unsight because it is the rare player who avoids my radar for an entire day-phase.

I SWEAR TO GOD ... I"LL GIVE YTHILL ONE MORE NIGHT BUT THATS ONLY BECAUSE I ACTUALLY ENJOY TRYING TO CONVINCE PEOPLE HE'S SCUM. YOU NEED TO BURN DRMY, ASAP.

Really? What is scummy about him not knowing how many mafia are left? If anything, it suggests that he's not mafia. Besides, I don't understand your logic here... your story is that you find two players scummy, one of whom you find dull, and you want to lynch him first?

For those of you who like meta, I was watching shotty's latest scum game, which ended recently.

This thread needs less mason-lurk. You are confirmed town and control a 25% bloc. The two of you should keep your votes together and assume control of this game. What do you think of my reads so far? Are there points that I missed or that you feel I have misinterpreted? Anything you want me to take a closer look at?

[Ythill]

Good point. Except I don't think he'd have been pushing Andrius like he was with a guilty on someone else.

[Ythill]

Fishy is @ L-2. No claiming or lynching until I'm done looking over the data. K?

I will probably have time to do all five isos tonight.

[Ythill]

Fishy, if you're town, please check out that game link I posted: recent shotty scum-meta.

[Ythill]

Fishy

Parked on shotty for most of D1, switched to Andrius as the NS wagon was starting and stayed on him until the end of the day. His early game is focused entirely on shotty, defense, and setup speculation. That behavior attracted pressure, which he responded to by widening his net to include AGar, Andrius, and NS. He called both suspects but focused on Andrius even though NS was the more popular lynch. He seemed very concerned about Mafuyu accusing him of distancing with NS. Near the end of the day, he mentioned his plans to defend the masons D2 but I don't know how likley of a slip this is considering the target-rich environment. Fishy's D2 play is far stronger than D1. Habitual null? Or just him playing even tighter when faced with more pressure?

Unsight

Joined the Maf wagon, unvoted when all the cool kids were doing it, and then parked on AGar for the rest of the day. His initial reasoning for those actions was okay, and he asked a few good questions. When NS started coming under fire, Unsight showed interest in a Fishy lynch but didn't shift his vote. He attacked both NS and Andrius, comparing them and finding an Andrius lynch preferable while NS was the more popular wagon, but he didn't vote either of them. Unsight has only 14 posts, counting today.

Fate

RV on me, then Maf. First serious vote on NS, swapped to shotty mid-day, then back to NS until the goon was lynched. In light of the Andrius flip, his iso#1 (wherein he is surprised to see Andrius in the game) feels like a scum tactic. He buddied to me and AGar in the early game. He spread his net as the conversation grew thick, and started looking like town. Believed Maf's softclaim a little too easily. Linking NS to other players, and especially linking a NS-Andrius team to shotty, still looks bad to me. He even speculated that shotty was the GF of the group. But then he got on NS and pushed like hell, which looks too aggresive for a bus. In iso#39, Fate reiterated the NS-Andrius team with a comment about them both going V/LA and he seems very convinced but then argues NS over Andrius and starts backing off of his read when the Andrius wagon built up quickly. Interesting contradiction: in iso#26 he adamantly tells me that wagon speed cannot be an indicator of towniness and cites his experience to back up that PoV; and yet, in iso#42-44, he reverses a solid scumread on Andrius for no other reason than wagon speed and, within a few posts, is demanding that people unvote Andrius. His play today has been full of contradictions. The OMGUS felt real at first, which was a point in his favor, but it dropped off quickly as soon as I moved my vote to Fishy, which strikes me as unatural.

shotty

Voted Mafuyu, Fate, Fishy, and Andrius. His Maf vote still looks solid to me, as do his first few defenses. He got frustrated with Fate and lost his cool under pressure. In hindsight, the early claim is either a town mistake or a very calculating scum play that I feel is out of character from shotty-scum. I don't like how comfortable he was being called a VI, a perjoritive should sting the ego more. He slipped in well-reasoned attacks but also made a bunch of silly mistakes, which suggests that VI is a playstyle choice. In iso#23, he asked for a VC thirty minutes after placing RB Andrius @ L-1; it

did

make sense from town in context but I can see a nervous buddy jumping the gun in that scenario too. His D2 play is lazy and lacks curiosity.

AGar

Voted me, NS, Maf, shotty, NS again, then Andrius. AGar is as obv-town as they come. He was curious, cautiously collaborating, and actively scumhunting. His views shifted cleanly with the evidence, which he contributed a fair share to. No way AGar is mafia. He

could

be the SK. Much of his play (wagoning and pooh-poohing extra-kill speculation, for example) makes sense from a SK's PoV but it also makes sense coming from AGar-town so long as he's been honest about his playstyle. It may be worth a look at his meta but a have a feeling that would be a waste of time. He is the least scummy of the pool by far.

Bonus Information

Thank you, Justa, for keeping your promise of helping us win the game.

Remember where I said shotty requested a VC thirty minutes after placing Andrius @ L-1? Justa follwed it immediately with an unofficial VC that I missed because I was reading the mod in iso. And it's a good one.

Just a Bit Off-Center

(2):

Andrius

,

Nobody Special

Andrius

(5):

Just a Bit Off-Center

, Fishythefish, AGar,

nhammen

, drmyshottyizsik

Nobody Special

(3): Fate,

Ythill

,

Mafuyu

AGar (1): Unsight

Click back and compare with my other VC stuff. Andrius was @ L-1, two confirmed town jumped from Andrius to NS, who dropped the self-hammer. He was not trying to freeze the VC. He was protecting the RB. This mildly suggests that Fishy, AGar, and shotty are not mafia because scum-NS might have hung around long enough for one of his buddies to bus if one of them was on the conveniently crumbling Andrius wagon.

Overall conclusions in a little while...

[Ythill]

(Heh. Ninja fish. The problem with your offer to defend the masons D2 is that town do not know they are going to be alive on D2. But, like I said, it was a target-rich environment. So maybe it's nothing. By "habitual null" I mean if town meta shows you are lazy D1 but more interested D2, it would clear up some of my problems with your play.)

Findings

• Unsight is one of the two likliest to be mafia. He is the most likley SK. All told, he looks like the best lynch.
  
• Fate: he still looks likle mafia to me. Very unlikley to be the SK.
  
• Fishy: I'm really liking his play so far today and D1 didn't look quite as bad the second time through. There's still a considerable amount of evidence against him but I don't think it's as strong as some others. He does not look like the SK to me.
  
• Shotty: That VC request is making me very paranoid but, like I said, it did make sense in context. Also, I didn't say this when I posted it but the feeling I got from that scum-meta I posted is that he spent some effort making friends in that game, whereas here he's been more obstenant. He's prob-town.
  
• AGar: He is absolutely not mafia, nor is he the likliest SK. He should not be lynched today.

UNVOTE: Fishy
VOTE: Unsight

I think it's imperative that our masons make an informed decision and I will not be involved in any lynches before they are ready.

@AGar:

If you and I bloc our votes, we can control the game in that we can make it impossible for anyone to be lynched unless either we or the masons approve. Interested?

@Mod:

You missed Mafuyu's unvote.

[Ythill]

@shotty:

Most of your case is that I moved my vote a lot, changed my mind, and sounded confidant about my reads. Driving multiple wagons in the early game is

very

good for the town because it creates the information with which games are won. Changing one's mind as the information changes is a towntell. Confidence is as much my personality as failing to read the thread is yours. The masons were scummy and needed to be outed explicitly, which helped the town in several ways no matter what their alignment is. If I'm mafia, why was Andrius buddying to me so hard?

Though shotty's WoT is weak, it reinforces my town read on him.

@Fate:

The suspicion on Andrius was based on things that happened before he announced V/LA. Right after he did so, you even called him scum and implied that he was going V/LA to avoid pressure. Now you backpedal to qualify your statement by claiming that his V/LA status should have stalled a wagon on him. Interesting because, at that time, you were pushing hard for a NS lynch while he was also on V/LA. Of course you're not going to agree with me about this no matter what your alignment is. I'm comfortable letting people form their own opinions...

Everyone should reread Fate's isos #26, 39, 41-45, 48, and 51 in context and comment on them.

@AGar:

Awesome. I'm not interested in lynching you (obv) or shotty. How strong is your read on Fate? Please look over my conclusions on him and feel free to point out whatever you feel I've misintrepreted. I don't quite understand your statements about Fishy's D1/D2 play. How does attracting pressure suggest he could be scum?

@nham:

Welcome back. Please bloc votes with maf. AGar and I are doing the same, meaning that no lynch can occur unless someone from one of our groups agrees with it. We have the option of joining forces and adding our strongest mutual town read in order to completely control the game, but it might be too early for that. I am very interested in your comments on my analyses and the game in general.

[Ythill]

@Unsight:

Mentioning your post count was me calling you a lurker.

And right now, I'm wondering how you went from:

Unsight:

VCs suggest he is unlikley to be mafia

but likley to be SK. Most suspicious from NS iso. Mildly suspicious from Andrius iso. Null through D1, which is strange.

to

Unsight is one of the two likliest to be mafia.

He is the most likley SK. All told, he looks like the best lynch.

That's a complete 180 with no explanation (bad or otherwise) in sight.

Reading is tech. Look at what you quoted. The first one mentions three separate analyses, one of which made you look like unlikely mafia, one of which made you look like the most likely mafia, and one of which put you in the probably catergory. Then I read your iso and found some more dirt. The final read is not a 180, it's more like a 20, and I've posted more reasoning for this one read than you have posted total in the entire game.

Also I never told the masons to hurry up and vote, I told them to hurry up get involved.

You're obviously questing for a lynch wherever you can find it and pressuring the masons to help you make it happen.

Obviously. Which is why I put effort into defending shotty, announced that I will not lynch AGar, and spent more than ten hours sifting through information in search of the best lynch.

@nham:

Thanks for your efforts. I'm curious about your Unsight read because you said that he was scummiest other than Andrius but then, seemingly based on one weak tell, clear him entirely from being mafia. What did I miss?

[Ythill]

Ohey look how happy Fate is. I almost feel bad disappointing him.

[Ythill]

UNVOTE: Unsight
And a rare

FoS: Unsight

Just keeping bloc control while nham is catching up. Unsight is still my prefered lynch.

[Ythill]

A few conversation points for you, nham. I was going to wait until you were caught up but I got bored.

Ummm... Ythill, nobody knows the other players' alignments in this game any more. Scum could very well have confirmation bias in looking for other scum.

You forget that we were explicitly calling each other mafia. If I am mafia I know that he is not, hence no confirmation bias. I think both your point and my counterpoint are too nitpicky anyway. The point was that he used town-linked terminology to call me scum, and then explained it by saying he was pretending I was town for the sake of argument.

Yes, Andrius said this. But it was after this wagon. And it was in response to Fate, who said "Normally I wouldn't be able to see Andrius and NS as scum together jumping on the ani wagon, but I agree with Ythill about Andrius' ISO play and them wagoning together for ani real hard would make perfect sense if drmy was in fact scum with them." I HIGHLY doubt scumbuddy Fate would out both partners like this.

I think you are neglecting a possibility. NS and Andrius grouping votes would usually a great argument against them being scum together. Fate's statement may have been a backhanded way of raising that argument without appearing to defend them, especially if he was intending to bus NS. It also afforded him an opportunity to buddy to me and link shotty to the entire pair. I don't agree that it clears him from being mafia, meanwhile I do think his play was too brazen and focused to be a typical SK.

[Ythill]

@AGar:

Thanks for rewording, both points make more sense this time. It was only necesarry for one of us to unvote in order to retain bloc control, unless another non-mason joined the wagon. I'll let you put yours back though, because I'm going to be V/LA for the weekend, starting tomorrow.

@Fate:

FTR, I understood that your counter-example case was "obvmisreps and twists" to serve a purpose but it acts like severe mudslinging anyway and, with you so vocal about my lynch, it's a mixing of metaphors that makes me even more suspicious of you. Meaning that your explicit decision to make up bad reasons for my lynch while simultaneaously claiming to have good reasons is a confusing mess in your iso and it could serve scum purposes like fluffing your case and providing an excuse for reasoning you'd like to excuse later. I'm not a fan of attacking people for things they haven't done yet, but I still think the examples were bad when a different tactic would have been both sufficient and more efficient there.

The fact that Ythill continues to argue that its a "town-linked" terminology shows that he is just pushing semantics and his superior debating abilities over a null point. Confirmation bias is NOT town-only, it is a flawed way of forming a case, and like _____(?) said since Ythill might think I'm the SK or whatever he can still use because he doesn't know if I am the other scum or not.

Don't sell yourself short. Appealing to the expertise of your opponant is a great debating technique. However, I think that skill isn't the issue here so much as truth is. On the "semantics" thing, I don't think I'm suffering from confirmation bias because I've been entertaining multiple theories but it is possible. I mean, look at how convinced I was about the masons D1. However, the problem with your play has nothing to do with whether I am suffering from confirmation bias. Instead, it stems from two points:

• You accused me of something that doesn't make any sense at all if I am mafia calling you mafia while also saying that's what I am. One of two things had to be true: you were using the term wrong or you were not honest about your beliefs. I offered the former and you denied it vehemently. The latter is a serious scumslip.
  
• You have now attempted a few flawed explanations for your scumslip. First you said that you were arguing from a hypothetical Yth-town PoV, which doesn't make any sense. Now you've latched onto nham's point that scum-on-scum can suffer from confirmation bias (flawed due to our specific situation). Right there is another contradiction. You calling foul over semantics is silly. When I first brought this up I gave you the semantics out and you blatantly refused to take it.

It's possible I'm wrong about you. If I am, I think I know what happened here: you actually were using the term wrong and your ego prevented you from admitting as much. If you are town, it is probably to our benefit to drop this part of the argument. My stance is clear, yours is shifting and that will end with a noose around your neck.

In the end I probably WON'T be able to find any glaringly obvious slips in Ythill's play, and will be tantamount to screaming into a pillow that he's scum all night. Hoping someone will hear me.

This statement really bothers me because it reveals strong dissonance in your beliefs. You admit that you haven't found compelling reasons that show I am obv-scum and that you probably will not. In the same breath, you admit that you are dead-set on lynching me. Can you explain this?

You're right that I bus hard and early as scum. Thing is, because I play that way I know that others are fully capable of doing the same, and some of your D1 play suggests that it is exactly what you were doing. Also, a little WIFOM for you... since I know my meta, wouldn't I gain some serious benefits from changing my play? If I was scum bussing my buddies, wouldn't it be counterproductive to point out my habit of doing so? And the most important question, same one that I'm asking myself about you... if I am mafia, why was Andrius buddying to me?

[Ythill]

V/LA all weekend (Aug 20-22) because I am hosting Scumstorm.

I will be around for a while tonight and

may

check in occasionally during the meet, but don't count on it.

[Ythill]

I'm back from V/LA.

Unsight got mild scumpoints for being RVed and then ignored.

I'm getting scum points because I wasn't getting mislynched? Really? Do I get townpoints for getting mislynched or nearly mislynched today?

This was pulled out of context. Note that this was in answer to Fishy's question about how Unsight was deemed mildly suspicious from my Andrius iso. Scum often ignore their buddies. Scum often RV their buddies. Andrius was scum and did both to Unsight.

Since Unsight seems determined to use empty declarations and context-twisting to refute points against him, I'll consolidate them here:

I really doubt AGar-scum piles on behind his two buddies, though it's possible Unsight did.

Nham has addressed this. Though the timing of Andrius' comments do not add weight to Unsight-scum, the tone apparently does.

VCs in general point to Unsight or AGar as SK. The former because he was playing very shy with his vote movement...

Further analysis suggested that AGar is less likely to be the SK.

NS mostly ignored his known buddy; the one comment directed at Andrius was a warning about the possibility of multiple docs. The othe living, non-confirmed players ignored by NS were AGar, and Unsight...

Finally we have Justa and Unsight, who are forgotten as "anyone else." This is a gambit post, and it's unlikley that we'll find buddies lumped together. Note that the bookend catergories have two names each. IMO, this post points to Unsight as mafia...

Unsight comes out of this analysis looking worse than anyone else.

The relevant parts of my NS iso. Unsight is one of two potential mafia from the first tell, and the other one is obv-town from further analysis. Unsight is most likley to be mafia from the second tell, and likliest to be mafia overall.

Unsight was voted during the RVS... Though he responded to direct questions and accusations, Andrius mostly ignored AGar, Unsight, and Fishy...

The inclusion of NS leads me to believe that the name of his other buddy is absent. Interestingly, he didn't list Fishy but went on to post a couple of very weak attacks against him. This post was the only time Andrius mentioned Fishy, except to comment on his setup speculation in #166. Also not listed are Agar, Unsight, and Fate...

Unsight gets minor scumpoints.

The relevant points from my Andrius iso. Not as strong as the NS read but still contains suggestions of scumminess without presenting any Unsight-town caveats.

Unsight: VCs suggest he is unlikley to be mafia but likley to be SK. Most suspicious from NS iso. Mildly suspicious from Andrius iso. Null through D1, which is strange.

My conclusions from three analyses, plus my read from D1. I don't see how this is anything but transparent and accurate, given the information I'd uncovered. Note that Unsight's first attempt at discrediting my reasoning was an underhanded argument wherein he pretended that my statement cleared him as non-mafia which is untrue.

Joined the Maf wagon, unvoted when all the cool kids were doing it, and then parked on AGar for the rest of the day. His initial reasoning for those actions was okay, and he asked a few good questions. When NS started coming under fire, Unsight showed interest in a Fishy lynch but didn't shift his vote. He attacked both NS and Andrius, comparing them and finding an Andrius lynch preferable while NS was the more popular wagon, but he didn't vote either of them. Unsight has only 14 posts, counting today.

These were my conclusions from his iso. Unsight claims that there's nothing scummy here and also asserts that the scumtells are meta-null. I don't feel like I need to explain that contradiction or point out that someone who knows his meta should not be excused for it. Follwing the herd onto and off of Maf looks bad. Parking on a player who will obviously not be lynched is anti-town at best and using it as a platform from which to launch attacks against more popular candidates makes it look very scummy. Attacking Fishy as pressure is moving from him to NS-scum has obvious scum motivation. Similarly, the strategic worth of pushing the less popular of two scum lynch candidates is plain.

One other point that wasn't made explicit is PoE. Across my various analyses, I found caveats suggesting town-alignments for AGar, shotty, and Fate. The unofficial VC suggested mildly that Fishy is not mafia, and his play today has seemed town. Meanwhile, Unsight was not cleared by any aspect of my reads, except that the VCs suggested he isn't mafia, which could be the product of him parking on AGar. He is the only player who has indicators pointing to both SK and mafia; he is the only player with no indicators pointing to town. Regardless of his assertions, I think the reasoning leading to that conclusion is clear.

Anyway, it looks like both blocs approve of the lynch. It's claim time.

VOTE: Unsight

[Ythill]

That's all Ican say. I'm just biased from my slot I guess that Ythill is scum.

Orly? Elaboration is required.

[Ythill]

Fishy is framing some of Unsight's underhanded defenses as scumplay, which is not entirely accurate. Though I agree that Unsight is using a few dirty tricks, I think such things are a product of pressure rather than alignment. The last point that Fishy gave sounds valid though.

No pre-claim hammers please.

[Ythill]

Good catch, Maf. Hey Fishy, if you don't know which it is, why is your vote parked on a player who is in a claim-or-die situation?

an attempt to win the argument without caring about the truth

My point exactly. The prime motivator for any player in Unsight's position is going to be avoiding the noose. I'm not saying the underhanded defenses clear him, but that they are null and therefore it's odd to see you adding them as fuel to the fire.

[Ythill]

Meh. Unsight's a better play but I'm not opposed to a Fishy lynch.

[Ythill]

To clarify, I do think that you adding weak fuel to the fire of a wagon @ L-1 with a hammer waiting is mildly scummy, but that's not why I said I'd be okay with your lynch. It has much more to do with the results of my earlier analyses. I think Unsight is the best lynch because tells indicate that he could be mafia or SK and none suggest that he's town. You, on the other hand, are more likley to be mafia than he is, and there are

very few

things suggesting you are town.

[Ythill]

Really? Just... ok?

[Ythill]

Here's the reaction to that post:

...

Meh. Unsight's a better play but I'm not opposed to a Fishy lynch.

To be fair, this was more a reaction to nham's vote change than to your post.

In case it hasn't been clear, my lynch preferences, in order, are Unsight, Fishy, & Fate. I will not be voting for anyone else. We may have lost mason approval for the Unsight lynch, which is enough for me to compromise. However, it seems like the bloc majority is against a Fate lynch and I'm noting that we're missing the crucial fifth vote on Fishy.

[Ythill]

Yes it was a hammer.

[Ythill]

I hope you die tomorrow. This is pretty much all your fault.

No you don't, unless you're pointlessly lying about your alignment in twilight. Better to hope I die tonight, if you're going to wish harm on me.

That's all you have to say Ythill?

I got mega ninja'd. I don't really see what there is left to say though.

[Ythill]

Is there really a question about Unsight's alignment? With no living buddies, and no chance of a fake hammer, why would he lie?

Fishy is mafia. SK is... AGar? I guess maybe Fate but that doesn't feel right. Anyway, I'm expecting to live through the night but, if I don't, please make use of my analyses. There's nothing more frustrating that watching a loss from the graveyard and knowing that key information I posted is being ignored.

[Ythill]

Stop being ridiculous. My chance of tonight is as low as yours. Or should we be concerned that you're making plans for tomorrow?

[Ythill]

EBWOP: of tonight == of dying tonight

Is the mod V/LA?

[Ythill]

Hmmmm... Ythan hasn't posted here since Sunday morning and hasn't posted onsite at all since Tuesday. I didn't see any V/LA messages so I sent him a prod.

[Ythill]

Get over yourself, Fate. You're just slinging mud. Like I said, my death is unlikley, but it's not impossible. If they are trying to avoid a crosskill, I'm on a list of three reasonable choices and, unless you're town, there's no way scum want me in endgame.

How long do we wait before considering this mod-abandoned? I know Ythan is probably busy with school starting but I don't want to wait forever. He hasn't picked up the prod.

[Ythill]

I'm assuming he'll be around before then but, if he isn't, I'd rather seek a replacement mod than just quit. We've still got a decent chance of winning this.

[Ythill]

I sent her a bulletproof supersaint cop PM with a one-shot daykill. Does that make me a bad person?

[Ythill]

Interesting.

As posted in my other games: my move is complete and I have internet at the new apartment.

So, we're in pseudo-MYLO but we can't no lynch because if the scum don't crosskill, we can't win. Massclaim?

[Ythill]

Why did you add VI to your sig?

Nhammen should pick who goes first, then we'll popcorn from there. That's assuming we get support but I don't see why we wouldn't.

[Ythill]

By cross-kill I meant hit the same target.

[Ythill]

kill

That's a funny thing for a RB to call his night action. You forgot to say who goes next but I suppose we can assume shotty?

[Ythill]

ITT nobody knows WTF popcorn means.

Slip maybe?

That was my implication.

[Ythill]

No, shotty... what I mean is you need to pick who claims next.

[Ythill]

VOTE: Fate

Fate can consider it a loss/draw/whatever but he

did

just claim scum.

[Ythill]

VT obv.

You know, the more I think about this, the more it annoys me. If Fate had a problem with a N1 ruling, he should have PMed the mod and had it worked out before the rest of us invested so much time and energy into this game. If I was one of his dead scumbuddies or the SK I'd be even more annoyed. I don't think Fate should get a draw out of this. I think he should be modkilled or at least forced to eat the loss he just earned himself. Hell, if he felt he couldn't win and wanted a draw, he could have played for the draw.

[Ythill]

Meh. Ythan asked for thoughts and I gave mine. Not going to argue about it more here. Feel free to PM me after you're out of the game if you really want me to explain why I think you're being a douche-nozzle.

[Ythill]

That wasn't the hammer, with six alive it should take four to lynch.

[Ythill]

Good morning. Eeny-meeny between AGar and Shotty, huh? I'll look at them over the next few days.

[Ythill]

So now I'm no longer bleeding obvtownness? D'oh.

You and shotty were my two main town reads, so I definately need to rethink things. This is the begining of my weekend so I'll have time to reread the two of you and make a decision. I'd appreciate it if the rest of you would do the same.

I agree that we should lynch today rather than wait until tomorrow. No-lynch will not have its usual MYLO benefit of narrowing the pool, and lynching today will mean that at least two town players are required to hang someone, which should help keep the shenanigans to a minimum.

[Ythill]

I've done a

[Ythill]

LOL. Accidentally hit some key combination that submitted that post... anyway...

I've done a comparison of several key topics, analyzed the NKs, and read an iso of shotty. Still need to iso AGar but I have a dentist appointment in about an hour so I'm going to stop here and finish my analysis while spitting blood. Right now I am leaning heavily towards shotty as the SK but I will not be making a vote until I've looked at all the information and had the chance to go through my completed notes.

Nham should not vote until we are ready to lynch. I've never had a confirmed townie in MYLO before but I'm realizing that he can wait with the hammer to seriously limit the potential for scum shenanigans, making it impossible for the SK to quick-hammer anyone but himself.

[Ythill]

1. There is no mafia left and you know this.
2. The SK already knows who to kill and it is the confirmed townie.
3. There is zero benefit to no-lynch for town but certain benefit for the SK.

I'm back from the dentist. Due to timing, I didn't get very much work done (one simple extraction instead of three surgical), so I am far-less drug addled than I thought I'd be. Will be finishing my analysis soon.

[Ythill]

We only have 2 choices. And I know SK==scum but you didn't say "scum," you said "mafia."

Stop distracting me, I'm trying to make sense of all this information.

[Ythill]

What We're Looking For

Finding the SK can be tricky because there's no connection evidence to exploit and they have reason to scumhunt as avidly as the town. However, the wincon is pretty extreme and, overall, a SK should be more concerned with survival than the average townie. The SK has inside information that may show when discussing the odd kills (NZ & N1). Due to set-up knowledge and the early scum kills, I think the most logical plays for the SK would have been scumhunting carefully and seeking town-cred D1, avoiding a mafia lynch D2, quietly lynching Fate D3, and choosing NKs that remove threats as much as possible with all the mason-confirmage going on. Note also that D1

scumhunting

should look townie but the D1

lynch choice

is not that important because he can use his kill to remove suspects.

NK Analysis

• On NZ, either the mafia killer was blocked, the mafia target was doc protected, or the SK hit Fate. I think the second possibility is more likley, since Reck, NS, and Fate are all players likely to target me with doc protects and mafia kills. However, the third possibility should be kept in mind because a SK who missed a kill on Fate should have suspected heavily that he was mafia (see below).
  
• N1 we know that the SK killed Andrius. There are many reasons he might have been killed: he was suspected at least mildly by both AGar and shotty, had dropped PR breadcrumbs, and was mildly suspicious of shotty. So many reasons that I'm not going to try to deduce anything from this kill.
  
  
• My assumption is that scum crosskilled (or whatever you call it) on Maf N2. We know the SK killed Fishy N3. This is important in that nham was not selected for the kill by the SK two nights in a row even though he seems to be the more lucid of the choices both nights. No chance he's a PR other than mason. AGar was high on his town list. He was moderately suspicious that Shotty was mafia but thought he couldn't be SK. In comparison, both Fishy and Maf were more suspicious of shotty than nham was, neither of them suspected AGar substantially around the time of their death.

NK analysis suggests that shotty is the SK.

Subject Comparison

• Reaction to NZ:
  The SK knew that a kill was missed on NZ. AGar was heavily opposed to NZ kill speculation and spoke out against it on at least three separate occasions, including #93 where he felt the need to argue for a single N1 kill. Shotty, otoh, lurked through the early game and pointedly ignored all NZ speculation. Either reaction could be SK, AGar looks
  a little
  more suspicious than shotty here.
  
• D1 Wagoning:
  AGar spent the early day bandwagoning "for info" but was often a late vote on those BWs (L-2 or later on NS, Maf, and shotty; never earlier than third on anyone). He moved his vote a lot which is good for the town but could have been ambivalence, especially since he never really pushed on anyone after he gave up on the shotty lynch. Shotty came in hard @ L-1 on Maf, like he wanted the day to end. He got in trouble for it and backed way off, placing his next two votes on non-wagons. Then he put Andrius @ L-1, asked for a VC, and stayed parked there. Interestingly, AGar also backed off the big wagons after shotty got in trouble for it. Both of them look dirty here.
  
• Reaction to D2 Double-kill:
  This is a repeat of the D1 start. AGar made an opening post (#438) that utilized the flips to gain solid set-up information, and felt the need to add opinion qualifiers (awesome, not-so-awesome) in a manner that feels disingenuine. Meanwhile, shotty came in late and jumped into the middle of an argument as if he didn't get the memo about people having been killed at all. AGar's tone isn't quite as bad as it was during his reaction to NZ. Shotty repeating the see-no-evil act makes it seem even more suspicious.
  
• D2 Preference for Mislynch:
  AGar came in hard against Unsight, briefly entertained the lynch of his second suspect, Fishy, and then lynched Unsight. He didn't mess around or entertain other theories. Shotty called me his top suspect but wanted to lynch Fishy, then he briefly joined me in attacking Fate before making a bit attack post against me and voting me. Though he'd listed four suspects by then (myself, Fishy, Fate, and AGar) he "accidentally" hammered non-suspect Unsight to end the day. Note also that
  if the SK targeted Fate N0
  then he would have likley sided with Fate D2, just like shotty did.

Overall, the subject comparison points to shotty as SK.

Comparative Isos

• AGar:
  Really, the only things I don't like about AGar's play (except what has already been mentioned), are his D1 twilight attack on Fishy and the masons (which seemed too calculating and open-ended to be town), and the way he favored the lynch of Unsight (likley SK) over Fishy (likley mafia) on D2.
  
• Shotty:
  Different story here. We've got his early VT claim and nervous defense on D1, the way he changed his wagoning behavior (and offered to change his playstyle) in response to a wagon on him, and the fact that he seemed willing to lynch outside his top three without much provocation.
  
  D2 started with him claiming "not SK" (#476) specifically even though he was also being called mafia. This was followed by a three-post burst (484, 486, & 488) during which he explicitly doubted the existence of the SK and wished he'd been aware of it sooner, all while ignoring the two NKs and the discussion people had posted confirming the existence of a SK; altogether it seems contrived.
  
  Perhaps the most telling moment appears in #522, where shotty attacked me aggresively, voteed for me, and placed a FoS on AGar. What's odd about this is that shotty's suspects were explicitly myself, Fishy, and Fate and the last thing AGar had done before this read change was agree to form a voting bloc with me. Scum don't like town blocs and shotty's reaction seems like a knee-jerk response to being excluded from both.
  
  I also don't like shotty's behavior at the end od D2. He set up the "accidental" hammer with preemptive excuses and followed it with some crap about being NKed which only makes sense if he was trying to seem townie, then he acted overly defensive towards Unsight. His insistance that we no-lynch today though it clearly favors the SK is another point against him.

Comparative isos suggest very heavily that shotty is the SK.

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[Ythill]

I endorse this product and/or service, though I think we should give shotty the chance to respond before he's hammered.

@AGar:

Did you look back through the thread or are you working from memory? I agree with your conclusion but I'm not sure I like the speed with which you reached it.

[Ythill]

WTF? Why would you do that?

I'm town. If you are too, then you just handed AGar te game. Nice job.

[Ythill]

Happy dance, happy dance. First third party win, wooooooot!

Some explainations... I was convinced nhamman and Mafuyu were mafia because my NZ kill on nhammen (sorry dude, you're too smart) didn't go through. The chances of a double-doc, or double RB seemed slim so I figured he was the GF and then I saw him buddying up with Maf and... well... you get the rest. I killed Andrius defensively because he dropped vig breadcrumbs and I really was shocked at his cardflip.

I became absolutely certain Fate was the GF on D2 and purposely avoided lynching him. Still kind of amazed that I managed to redirect my suspicion to Unsight without getting in trouble. On N2 I submitted a no-kill after sketching out possible endgames and finding more victory scenarios if I retained the option for a final four. One of those was a 2:1:1 where I thought the optimal strategy would be to claim SK, inform the town that they can no longer win, and then try to talk them into helping me lynch Fate rather than playing for the draw. I killed Fishy rather than nhammen on N3 both because nham thought I was obv-town and because it helped set up my d4 case against shotty.

Shotty was groomed by me pretty much from D1 to be the endgame mislynch. Some of my riskiest plays were made while defending him and chainsawing his attackers. There was a while there when I became convinced that Fate was going to figure out what I was doing and NK shotty just to mess up my plans. Good thing we had masons.

@Ythan:

Don't be too hard on yourself. It wasn't bad for your first time. The cardflip thing was lame but not game-breaking. I would have appreciated quicker nights and regular updates in the OP, but I definately enjoyed the game.

@Fate:

You, sir, are a whiner. You and I were in the exact same boat. Alone, aware of the others' identity but unable to NK him, and with our asses hanging out because of that flip. It put both of us at a disadvantge to the town but gave neither of us the advantage over one-another. How is it that you quit while claiming it was impossible to win and yet I won? I like playing with you man, but that seriously sucked. Mainly because I was looking forward to squaring off with you but also because I felt sorry for your buddies watching from the sidelines.

[Ythill]

Yeah, that self-hammer diminished the pleasure of victory a bit, but I think I would've won without it.

A hobo with a gun? Yes.

This is the breadcrumb that got you killed.

@Mafuyu:

In hindsight, your D1 reads were awesome. By your third post, you'd called out NS-scum and me as the SK!

@Fate:

Whatever, whiner. I do look forward to seeing your town game. You're a good scumhunter.

[Ythill]

I thought nhammen was NK immune and that'a why my kill failed. The mafia kill could have been RBed or doc protected and meta showed that the Reck kill was mor likely to come from a vig. Why

did

you guys kill Reck? And did you know Just was a cop?

[Ythill]

You breadcrumbed doc too.

[Ythill]

Like I said, my NZ missed kill on you convinced me that you were the GF.

Note that grad school was one of the main reasons that you were alive in endgame.

[Ythill]

Did you protect me NZ, Reck? Or was I just making that up?

[Ythill]

Scum topic was a good read.

Also, Ythill cannot be the SK. He has to be town. Prob. Cop too.