Open 239 - C9++

[Andrius]

b]Vote: Unsight[/b] You're the only player here I haven't played with before/ never heard of before this game.

And how am I player #9? I was totally the last one to /in in the Queue.

And why are we all hobos? lol

[Andrius]

*sigh* That would be a

Vote: Unsight

. >_>
/fail at containing my excitement at being a hobo [/sarcasm]

[Andrius]

STOP SIMULPOSTING WITH ME ANDRIUS.

Oh wait.

Andrius~!!??!

ME??!?!?

TOGETHER?!?!?

<3 Andrius. HAI

Could you not get mod-replaced this time? Thanks.

OH LOOK EVERYONE A NEW EMOTE!!!

[Andrius]

Oh wait. FATE WTF. DID YOU NOT SEE ME /IN OR MY NAME ON THE PLAYERLIST?
/neglected T_T

[Andrius]

And why are we all hobos? lol

You all live in Central Park.

Makes sense.
So wait. The Mafia is killing... hobos?

[Andrius]

So wait. The Mafia is killing... hobos?

To be fair they may or may not be hobos with power roles.

A hobo with a gun? Yes.
A hobo with Doctor certification? Unlikely.

I don't think I've ever actually played with Reck before.

[Andrius]

I haven't played with... nah. Too easy.

?? OUT WITH IT YOU DECREPIT HOBO.

[Andrius]

Totally confused as to what you mean with the GD thing, unless its the Guys Pt. II thread that has a reputation.

[Andrius]

Flawless logic:

Lynch Ythill and when he flips scum, we get two confirmed townies. He only thought there were 9 players anyways.

VOTE: Ythill

Erm, the last time I saw a mis-count in the player numbers it was a town-player who thought the Mini Theme has 20 people. >_>

Ok. NK speculation is getting us nowhere because it seems (IDK I've never played with most of you/Reck) that its not getting us anywhere.

[Andrius]

Are you pissed that Reck protected me last night?

You know this how? Or is this just speculation?

Unvote, Vote: Animorpherv1

Needs to be prodded with an electric caddle prod.

And Fate, I didn't see any "trap". (Then again I am very unobservant, as noted in my wiki.)

[Andrius]

Maybe it's because I'm suffering set-up fatigue, but I just cannot glean how you "know" we're dealing with 3 mafia. I agree that setup speculation is worthless to a point; but you've either got brilliant insight here or you've just slipped. (And, as I said, I may be blinded because I just spent days setting up a game from this same schema. Humour me.)

Well, either he's part of the Mafia/ the SK.
If he's not part of the above, there's only one way I can see (setup-wise) that he would know. (And yes, I have spent some time screwing around with the C9++ setup process.)

[Andrius]

@Andrius: Yes. Hence why Mafuyu DIDN'T WANT SPECULATION. Speculation not only provides scum their targets, but potential role configurations which allows for more directed attacks.

Yep. Conversation over now.

If Mafuyu is correct (which Mafuyu rarely is), this could be seen as a communication-based gambit. If both anti-town parties know each other, they can at the very least temporarily truce. This would be beneficial for Ythill-SK in the terms that Ythill-SK cannot be betrayed easily for two reasons: the first being that there would have to be a cooperative Vig for an NK to take place on Ythill, the second being that scum would not be able to out Ythill-SK without losing at least one player, in this hypothetical instance NS. The obvious flaw is that the second Ythill statement makes no sense due to Mafuyu's previous mention of SK's NK protection, so meh.

Sooo... you're saying he's either SK or... that. But you're leaning Ythill_SK why?
Though I wouldn't put a ballsy scum-gambit like contacting the SK D1 past Fate... :igmeoy:

[Andrius]

ITT Andy fails with tags and emotes. I meant for :igmeoy: to be:

[Andrius]

Are you pissed that Reck protected me last night?

You know this how? Or is this just speculation?

*pokes Ythill* See above.

Is this what I think it is? Heh. Maybe Reck did protect me last night. I can see why he would.

UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: Mafuyu

I think I see what's going on here.
Ok, but how does the SK find the mafia without all of us seeing? I think that's a bit risky.

[Andrius]

Ok now I feel stupid. /fail

[Andrius]

Could someone explain all of these cryptic little comments? I'm already lost, only on page 3, and I don't enjoy this feeling.

Just look at the C9++ setups, and read Mafuyu's post. You should get a wake-up call.

ITT WE LEARN THAT FATE IS EGO_CENTRIC.

[Andrius]

Fail_Ani is failing.

FOS:Reck because of CAPS LOCK ALLIANCE.

RECK IS DEAD.

Though that's probably not really a scumtell...

[Andrius]

@ Ythill: The lack of 1's in front of the 0,1,2, were a tad confusing, but there are 12 players in C9++, so.

This is the third (and most important) thing that bothered me about #58, and it was the one I mentioned vaguely and that she denied. It looks very much like Maf-scum offering to make a deal with Ythill-SK. Look at how she's selling the idea.

Not like lynching scum is a bad idea (it is a good idea), but shouldn't we hit the SK first (if we can) because he has the potential to be NP-untouchable. (Barring we don't have multiple killing roles hit him.)

Three things bothered me about Maf's #58. First, too much qualification looks scummy. Second, jumping to the conclusion that I am SK is very indicitive of her being scum. The statement to NS that she quoted is obviously me jabbing him about being mafia, and yet she takes it as a SK softclaim? That's a serious amount of bad assumption in a situation where the town has no reason to believe that there is a SK in the setup, but a safer assumption coming from scum who tried to NK me last night. It does make sense that Reck would have protected me because he is intimately familliar with the reasons that Maf or NS would have to NK me as scum.

The case on Mafuyu is definitely stronger than that on you.

Unvote, Vote: Mafuyu

Ani's just being forgetful/stupid with the FoS on dead_Reck.

I'll look at NS a bit more, perhaps as meta, because I've never played with NS when NS is mafia.

[Andrius]

@ Ani: I know, I've done it too. Slight town read here.

Dr.msis needs to post.

[Andrius]

Mafuyu is female? I kinda' miss the gender icons. >_>

There was a C7++ too? Huh.

By "Paragon" you mean the 'Paragon of Mafia hunters' yes?

Re: SK. True, though I'm leaning no Vig or no SK due to the low number of deaths last night. (Unless the RBs and Docs are being uber-amazing. )

[Andrius]

Ythill:
True. If someone did hit you last night then Reck covered you pretty well (or another Doc). Its probably too early to rule out a SK and/or Vig solely based on N0's return. A much as I want to be able to definitively say No SK, we can't really do that at this moment, so.

If Mafuyu is scum, she would seriously have insisted on killing me and Reck knows this. He also knows that NS would have reason to kill me as scum.

This is getting into the NK-WIFOM territory. Granted, I've never played with you, Reck, or Mafuyu before, and I've never played with NS_scum before, but it appears (to me) that the quoted line is speculation. It is also highly dependent on the fact that someone

did

try to kill you, and you were protected (by Reck or another Doc). I'm not saying that you probably weren't hit last night.

"Soft-claimed female". lol Funny how mafia lingo slips in when you least expect it.

[Andrius]

Ythill:
Yeah, I'll look into the Guys game in a bit.

Mafuyu's Ythill vote is interesting. But, we don't have much other stuff to talk about, so.

She says while voting me. Also, I feel like singing... The Everchanging Story... nah-nah-nah, nah-nah-nah, nah-nah-nah. (Atrayu!)

YES. Atreyu is one of my favorite bands!

[Andrius]

Ythill:
That's really funny though, because I totally wigged out. lol
Why is nham scum? [sarcasm]Besides for voting prob-town Andrius. lol [/sarcasm] Is it for his lack of content? He's null ATM for me. Needs to post more.

Fate:
I'm surprised at how tame you are.

nhammen/Ythill:
Soooo... why am I "wrong" in regards to mafia/SK hunting? I'm a tad confused because all nhammed said was "!!", and I can't really learn from that so.

[Andrius]

My !! was because this is one of those textbook standard scumtells. If someone wants people to exclusively focus on scum A over scum B, they are more likely to be scum B. In this instance, scum A is SK and scum B is mafia. Although, it is a fairly weak tell, it is stronger than the reason I voted NS.

Ok, I see where you're coming from and it makes sense. I've just spent a fair amount of time tinkering with the C9++ setup, and the SK has a crapload of little bonuses that make him- near-unstoppable in the NP. (Lynching, of course, is pretty much the only way to off him.) I know that I'm useless to stop him, and it doesn't take a genius to know he's serious trouble.

Every C9++ setup with a Serial Killer comes with the following "perks" for the SK:

Doc Bypass- every single kill bypasses one Doctor protect
Block Bypass- immune from one Block attempt every Night.

75% of C9++ games with a SK have the following:

Kill Immune- immune from one Kill attempt every Night.

50% of C9++ games with a SK have the following:

Investigation Immune- appears to Cops as Town.

So if we have a SK, he's 75% likely to be unstoppable in the NP- Doc and RB bypass with kill immunity. (This is assuming that there aren't extra Docs and RBs lying around who could band together to stop him- or multiple Vigs.)

It just seems to me that he's a bigger threat, if he can't simply be killed/blocked/investigated by a town PR.

[Andrius]

And now I see where you are coming from. Even if your math is off (as I think it is). In fact I'm sure that it is less than 50% investigation immune, and I think it is greater than 75% kill immune. These are just back of the envelope type calculations. I don't put much effort into working out the math of games I play.

But in any case, there is nothing stopping the SK from being taken out by lynching. It can be done on any day. So I don't think we should be seeking one scumgroup over others.

I'm pretty sure my math is right; I'm in Accounting right now, so. (Only 4 of the 8 anti-town setups have SK, and 3 of those are Kill Immune and 2 are Investigation Immune. The math isn't too hard.)

Of course not. I still think if we had a shot at the SK over the mafia, we should do it, because the mafia can get killed by Vig

and blocked by Doc protections and RB blocks, while the SK *could* be competely immune to most of our NP actions.

*going to look up cognitive dissonance because I feel stupid lol*

To be fair, if Reck had protected you you would have been protected from a scum or vig kill, as SKs doc-bypass. So, if you are anti-town, and you didn't get vig-targeted, that leaves SK. It was a pretty stupid hypothetical.

I hadn't seen that before, but you're assuming that Ythill was targetted by a non-Vig. So according you that (quoted), Ythill must be SK, as an anti-town attack on him (given he was protected) would have failed. (And if he's not SK then that, so.)

@ Ythill: Good thing you said GF is NK-immune. I didn't think he was, but then I checked the sample Role PM listing on page 1, and you're right.

[Andrius]

But the set-ups aren't equally likely.

Forgot about that part. :/ Good point. I might run some numbers and see what the odds are.

Honestly, any vig that targets Ythill on N0 is completely stupid and should never draw a pro-Town power role.

True.

I've been thinking about this. At the begining of D1, the most reasonable assumption seemed to be no-vig, no-SK. Operating under that assumption, I figured that Maf was unlikely to be scum because of me as the hypothetical kill choice, which she's already admitted to. Then she started acting scummy and, like I said, I stumbled on the Reck-protect idea because I still think Mafuyu's scumteam would have been all over me. Ergo, my entertaining the idea of a failed NK is contingient on my belief that Mafuyu is scum. So why is she making the assumption?

Seriously, can anyone explain a reason other than her being scum?

I came into D1 thinking no-Vig, no-SK also. Though things may be different tonight, without a Doc and a full day of info to work off of.
I don't think the mafia would be on you D1 if they tried to off you N0. Its a bad move, just like Vig'ing you N0. Even a newbie would know that's bad play.

I'm going to play around with C9++ for awhile. Get all statistical.

[Andrius]

Thanks for the complement? Or insult?

Neither. Accusation. And you're doing it again.

Hey! That was my attempt at humor! Because your accusation could be viewed to include both an insult and a compliment. See, funny! I think the joke fell flat...

I took it as sarcastic, and laughed. (Because I say the same thing lol.)

[Andrius]

Hey! That was my attempt at humor! Because your accusation could be viewed to include both an insult and a compliment. See, funny! I think the joke fell flat...

unvote

I'm not ready to lynch and therefore not ready for a claim. We have four people who need to post content. Anyone up for a lurker wagon?

Lurker wagon? How about a hasn't-even-posted wagon? Drmyshottyissik flipped scum in my last game with him, so he's obv_scum here.
Lurker wagons are good and dandy, but let's not completely shove Mafuyu off the backburner.

[Andrius]

Drmy has posted in other games.

A prod is in order.

I'm pretty sure he was /in-ning like crazy to games, so.

If Dr. does post, expect him to vote his scumbuddy as his first vote, forget that it was his scumbuddy, then uber-backpedal and vote Ythill (really town person). lolwut

POST OR BE REPLACED DR.

[Andrius]

Also, why haven't you voted for Mafuyu?

Because he would have hammered?
And its kind of ironic because you unvoted Mafuyu, and now you want Fate to vote Mafuyu. lol

@ Agar: He just unvoted Mafuyu.

But the ironies continue, I guess.

[Andrius]

I said why I unvoted. I'm wondering why Fate was willing to hammer but then didn't place a vote once she dropped to L-2. It's a valid question.

True. Though maybe Fate wanted the hammer. Bad. IDK.
@ NS: Of course there could be more. But let's

not forget our friends the cuttlefish

not play like our game depends on their existance.

@ Dr: Now if you could just reread the thread and get scumhunting that'd be great.

[Andrius]

If this is to be believed, we have either:

a) two masons;

b) three masons; or

c) two groups of two masons each.

He could also be an Innocent Child. Don't forget that role.

It also narrows down the scum possibilities. By this point, we have to have 2 Ms or more. We can't have one, Ythan didn't announce an innocent child (isn't that how the role works?). Reck's flip confirms at least 1 D. Which means maximum of 4 Ts.

Scum/SK possibilities:


2 Goons + 1 Godfather, 1 SK (Kill Immune, Doc Bypass, Block Bypass)
1 Goon + 1 Roleblocker + 1 Godfather
1 Goon + 1 Roleblocker + 1 Godfather, 1 SK (Kill Immune, Doc Bypass, Block Bypass, Investigation Immune)
1 Spy + 1 Roleblocker + 1 Godfather
1 Spy + 1 Roleblocker + 1 Godfather, 1 SK (Doc Bypass, Block Bypass, Kill Immune, Investigation Immune, Spy Immune, Roleblocking)

You forgot that there could be an Innocent Child (M). (Unless this was some sort of softclaim.)
IIRC, the Innocent Child is only confirmed as Innocent Child when that player

asks

the mod to confirm him.

Anywho, aGar's chart means that "our" SK, if we have one, is Kill-Immune. (Which sucks.)

Unvote

Either Mafuyu can mod-confirm her role or someone else can confirm her role. Unless she's lying. But I had a recent experience with lynching a Beloved Princess, so I'd rather not take that risk right now, unless we're all sure this is going to be a scum flip.

[Andrius]

Mafuyu’s claim is that “at least one M exists”. Now, if Mafuyu is an Innocent Child, I see no harm in claiming her, and getting the mod to confirm it. If not, I see no harm in her claiming the size of his mason group. I may be missing something (and no claim should come before we’ve discussed it), but AFAIC Mafuyu should be claiming which it is.

If Mafuyu claims how big his mason group is we'll get a closer estimation of the number of Ts that are out in the field. Not sure if that's a bad thing or not.

[Andrius]

Yeah. I've played as Mason before, and its sometimes better to claim and possibly draw NKs away from other town PRs.

Its a gamble, for sure, but it was definitely better than lynching you. (Unless this was a scum gambit of epic porportions, which I doubt.)

[Andrius]

Sorry, I would feel alot better if one of him mason partners confirmed him, or a real mason said he wasn't, but I don't think that will happen.

Since it has now come out, yes I am Mafuyu's mason partner.

Read the thread Dr.

[Andrius]

Hey Andrius, why aren't you voting anyone? Was Mafuyu your only suspect?

Why am I not voting anyone? I had been voting Mafuyu, but unvoted when nhammen backed up the Mason claim.
Mafuyu was not my only suspect.
Currently, I'm debating hopping onto the Dr. wagon. His play is scummy, though I'm putting his play up next to the meta-data from the last game I played with him.
Though I feel that we will have to remove him from the game before MyLo/LyLo, as it will not help the town to have him alive very long- especially with his lack of reading, pressuring a claimed Mason.

THERES NO WAY IN HELL WERE GETTING OUT OF TODAY WITHOUT A DRMY LYNCH. IM 150% SERIOUS RIGHT NOW.

If he doesn't go now, he needs to go before LyLo. Just saying.
Wait. Maybe if we let him live longer, he'll do something insanely stupid like he did in our last game together (on-going) and basically out himself as scum.

Vote: Animorpherv1

Hi there. You need to get active please, or I'll start voting you in all the games we're in. (Even the one where you're modding. ) Thanks.

[Andrius]

Thanks for the quality content, NS.

[Andrius]

Andrius seemed clean in the early game but he waxed chatty once the heavy arguments started rolling. He buddied to me and (to a lesser extent) Fate, believed Maf's claim too easily, and seems more interested in setup speculation than scumhunting. A couple of posts ago, he claimed to have more suspects than Maf but, rereading him in iso, he could've fooled me.

1) I don't mean to buddy, I just like to talk to friend-type people.
2) I believed Maf's claim because I have had lots of experience with Masons, (completed games and on-going games), so I know that claiming Mason is a big deal. Scum- unless they are incredibly stupid (Aka, me in Greek Mythology) will surely hit masons to lower the number of confirmed-town players.
3) I do, actually, have more suspects. But its more of a gut feeling type thing. Mafuyu was definitely a suspect. Gut said AGar was scum for awhile due to him voting you early D1 (because you're evidentially a really big town asset, stuff like that). NS is also probable scum. (I'm willing to make a case on him, ISO, in requested.) His posts are short and trite- often with less content than me and Dr. Definitely semi-lurking here.

Everyone and their grandma here is 4 of the 11 players.

You're assuming a SK here.

Normally I wouldn't be able to see Andrius and NS as scum together jumping on the ani wagon, but I agree with Ythill about Andrius' ISO play and them wagoning together for ani real hard would make perfect sense if drmy was in fact scum with them.

This would be a horrendously stupid move to make. That's like a game I was scum in, where all the scum wagonn'ed Player A while the town, with no scum help, lynched Player B. Player A claimed Vig and we all got lynched every day after that.

Do you want other people to claim today Andrius?

Is this directed at me, or was I the example here?
If the former, wagonning loads of people to L-1 and forcing a claim (Go Play in Traffic- D1) is not a good idea.
BUT, whacking Dr. for the sake of dumping a VT/VI/person we don't want in LyLo shouldn't be the driving force behind a lynch.

@ Fishy: And yeah, I'm pretty sure that nham didn't mention a Cop checking a Mason. No big though.

[Andrius]

Oh. >_>

[Andrius]

This excuses your behavior towards Fate but not towards me, which you're still doing, BTW.

[sarcasm]Fine. I guess I'm not your friend then. [/sarcasm]

At the time, it was not M(asons). It was M. You acknowledged the fact that she could be lying in your unvote post, but you never tried to ascertain whether she was, and started immediately basing your opinions on the assumption that she was telling the truth. I'll let the backpedal in your point 3) speak for itself.

If she were an Innocent Child, she could mod-confirm her alignment, which we would have had her do- thus proving her alignment. She, as a mason, can get another player to confirm her alignment, so either way, claiming an 'M' is something that scum would most likely not do:

First off, have you ever seen a mafia fakeclaim as a mason? Second, have you ever seen two mafia fakeclaim as mason partners? So look at the percentage of mason claims that were real as opposed to fake.

Scum_gambit for a mason claim would be near-imossible to pull off.

So for either role in the 'M' category, Mafuyu (provided she's not lying) could have confirmed her alignment. I was completely justified in unvoting her, because she can be alignment confirmed. And if she was lying about her role, then she'd be caught. No one would claim her mason-buddy; mod cannot confirm her as town. Problem solved.

[Andrius]

@Andrius: You're glazing over the point: nobody had confirmed her claim at that time. Rather than attempt to confirm it, you simply believed it. Probably not worthy of mention from someone who was on the fence about her (like AGar was) but you seemed convinced she was scum.

You're ignoring the fact that she could have been confirmed at any time. Hence why someone asked the mod if she were a I.C. whether he would have been confirmed at the beginning of the game or not. If she isn't a I.C., and therein mod-confirmed, she would have to be a mason (confirmed by another player) or scum.
Had she failed to be confirmed by players/ the mod she is scum and would have been lynched. Simple as that.

[Andrius]

@Andrius: Could have been != was. Think about this, if I was as accepting as you were, she'd still be unclaimed and uber-scummy right now. And, apparently, you'd be okay with that.

Not so. Someone did ask about how I.C.'s mod-confirm themselves, and we would definitely have pressed for a mason buddy claim before a lynch.
You make it seem like you're the only one doing something around here, which isn't exactly true.

[Andrius]

I don’t really have any idea who Unsight, Ns, Andrius or ani think are scum, and I’d like to know.

Post 232 for mine.

[Andrius]

Sorry past two days have been busier than expected. :/

V/LA from today to Monday night.

I don't think I'll have internet where I'm going, so. If there is internet, I'll try and post. If not, you won't see me, so.

[Andrius]

Hey dudes. I'm back, and I'll have the reread and stuff sometime tomorrow. My car is in the shop so I'll be here all day tomorrow.
Right now I'm hoping my best friend calls me back because I could really use a pick-me-up.

[Andrius]

I made sure that Bah posts are allowed.

"BAH!!!"
Go scum!

[Andrius]

[Andrius]

Whatever. Scum lost, and so yeah.

I failed you, Darth Fate.
But NS failed WAY WORSE. XD

[Andrius]

Wow - we double roleblocked Ythill N1??

Yeah, I was looking for you, because you were my fakeclaim. Anyway, good job Fishy.

[Andrius]

b]Vote: Unsight[/b] You're the only player here I haven't played with before/ never heard of before this game.

And this line was me dropping a breadcrumb, that I never got to use.
The failed tags, anyone? B = Blocker.

[Andrius]

It was also first post in the game, so.

[Andrius]

That wasn't meant to be a crumb, dude.
And you should have known that since your kill was blocked, and there was still only one kill with a dead Doc (and 2 RBs and 2 Masons) that I couldn't be a Vig.

[Andrius]

I thought nhammen was NK immune and that'a why my kill failed. The mafia kill could have been RBed or doc protected and meta showed that the Reck kill was mor likely to come from a vig. Why

did

you guys kill Reck? And did you know Just was a cop?

Fate wanted to kill xReckx out of spite.
Fate sent me to have a threesome with you and your wife, so.
And killing Just was just luck. I was actually going to claim Cop D2, and guilty-ize Mafuyu, and be like "I must be a Paranoid Cop" and then push a lynch on Unsight.

Just call me the Serial Breadcrumber.

[Andrius]

You breadcrumbed doc too.

I know.
I did a bit of everything so I'd be safe when it came time for claiming... which never happened.

[Andrius]

Scum topic was a good read.

Also, Ythill cannot be the SK. He has to be town. Prob. Cop too.

But secretly, both me and Mafuyu, D1, realized that you had to be Cop or SK.
And the only reason that you weren't RB'd N1 was because Fate said not to.