Open 233: Ninja Mafia Boogaloo - Over!

[KageLord]

I'm sorry to be so late. I didn't even realize that this game had started yet. I suppose I should have kept an eye on it instead of assuming we would get a PM about its start.

Anyway, I have quickly read through the thread now, but I plan to go back and try to find something solid tomorrow (hopefully that post will come tomorrow night or definitely day after). For now, my thoughts:

1. The person I have the most mixed feelings about is SV. At first, I thought the whole thing about him unvoting when he didn't vote in the first place was stupid. But, I was a bit rattled when he claimed he did it on purpose as a trap. I guess I could see someone trying it, but it seems like a pretty stupid trap to me. It could easily be taken the wrong way and used by scum (as it very well may have been in this game). I also don't agree with his scum skimming "tell" thing in general. I think that scum read the thread just as carefully as experienced town players do. It would be so easy for them to slip up and misrep or something like that if they didn't pay attention. However, there still seems to be scumhunting effort from him, even if I don't agree with all of his methods. I would say I'm leaning town on him.

2. To the above Beefster vs. SC thing, I would think that what SC is saying is that just because something doesn't have a "second witness" doesn't mean that it should be disregarded. The person making the point just needs to try harder to make people see it his way. He doesn't seem to be implying that Beefster is saying that the point is actually wrong. In that regard, I would say SC is right about Beefster's comment being fallacious. But, I don't see any malice in it. It could easily be an honest misunderstanding.

Thoughts about possible scum coming soon...

Edit after preview: It seems AGar agrees about SV's "tell".

[KageLord]

Alright, after ISOing everybody, I'll say the one that jumped out at me most was Zajnet.

Comments in italics are my thoughts.

Zajnet

ISO 0-3: Just RVS stuff and answering RQS.

ISO 4: Votes SV. Only reason given is "It's a tarp!".

I'm guessing this is his way of saying he agrees with AGar about SV's "trap" by unvoting being stupid. Of course, I would have liked more than a one line meme as reasoning for jumping on a wagon.

ISO 5: Another Star Wars reference.

I don't know why he bothered to post there at all.

ISO 6: Apologizes for jokes after being voted by ckd. Tries to deflect back to ckd, saying he hasn't had much reasoning either. Claims he voted SV because the worth of meta is diminished when someone brings it up themselves.

I don't get how what he is saying here about the meta relates to the SV vote. The only thing I can think of here is SV's claim that his unvote was a test and Sotty's asking for proof of him doing this before. If this is what Zajnet was referring to though, it still doesn't make sense since it was Sotty that asked for meta (and SV just pointed him to wiki).

ISO 7-10: Almost completely random stuff that has nothing to do with the game.

ISO 13: Says SV's comment about Advanced Scumhunting 101 irked him in response to ckd's questioning about why SV's bringing up his meta seemed scummy to Zajnet.

He never seems to have mentioned this before. Also I don't see how that is an example of self-meta diminishing meta's worth. Trying to give a new reason to justify his vote? But yes... I would also agree with his point (and with AGar and a couple of others) about SV's comment making him seem like a pretentious prick.

ISO 15: Claims his early vote was a joke while SV's trap claim wasn't. Now says his vote on SV is a "gut read + his weird unvote thingy".

To me, this just reads as Zajnet is still messing with his reasons for voting SV. It strikes me as pretty darn scummy.

Vote: Zajnet

[KageLord]

@KageLord

1. The person I have the most mixed feelings about is SV. At first, I thought the whole thing about him unvoting when he didn't vote in the first place was stupid. But, I was a bit rattled when he claimed he did it on purpose as a trap. I guess I could see someone trying it, but it seems like a pretty stupid trap to me.

It could easily be taken the wrong way and used by scum (as it very well may have been in this game)

. I also don't agree with his scum skimming "tell" thing in general. I think that scum read the thread just as carefully as experienced town players do. It would be so easy for them to slip up and misrep or something like that if they didn't pay attention.

However, there still seems to be scumhunting effort from him, even if I don't agree with all of his methods.

I would say I'm leaning town on him.

So firstly you are saying scum can do things townies can do to give off a townie impression. Then you say that scumhunting is a good indication of someone being town. This just seems to me as a poor effort to try and get some content in but nothing outrageous as to drag unwanted attention to yourself. I look forward to reading some more of your scum hunting posts to see if I can get a better read on you but then you (and tumernasnce) are probably going to get modkilled anyway for inactivity.

The first part sentence that you bolded was meant to say that SV's "trap", even if it was actually on purpose, could be turned on him to make him look like floundering (or just pretentious) scum, as it was early (after RVS) in this game.

[KageLord]

Pardon my ignorance but I've only played a few games of the F11 setup.

Assume

I was the cop in this game.
Why would I claim cop?
There is a 50% chance I may due unprotected due to a medic in this game.
There is a 50% chance I will be redundant this game due to a role blocker.
There is a 50% chance a Watcher will catch one scum on me.

There are no Watchers in F11. The only possible PRs are doc, sane cop, and RB.

But yeah, I'm not sure why someone would want to claim cop at this point in the game. How would that help anything?

[KageLord]

Yeah, I think now might be the time for everyone not on Confid or Zaj to pick one of them. Or, if you really don't want to, then I think the next best thing would be for the people on Enigma to present something new or the strongest points in their case. Clearly the tumescence and Chronopie "wagons" aren't going anywhere.

[KageLord]

Welcome drmyshottyizsik.

And just so everyone knows, Zajnet is now L-1. Now no one can claim that they didn't know they were hammering (though it may not even be necessary in this case).

[KageLord]

@Mod: Not that big a deal but Chronopie should be on the "not voting" part for the vote count.

Fix0red, thanks

[KageLord]

It's a bit disconcerting how quickly the Chrono wagon is taking off. Sure he's lurking, but is that really what we want to be going after at this point? Smells like at least 1 scum on the wagon to me. But I suppose we can wait for a Chrono flip before deciding on that, if people are adamant about lynching him.

[KageLord]

It's a bit disconcerting how quickly the Chrono wagon is taking off. Sure he's lurking, but is that really what we want to be going after at this point? Smells like at least 1 scum on the wagon to me. But I suppose we can wait for a Chrono flip before deciding on that, if people are adamant about lynching him.

is lurking the only reason in my case?

Not yours. Confid's reason is "Baa." and SV's is "lurking". But as for your case, the only believable point that I can see is about him not answering your questions. I'll be looking for a reason for that whenever he actually does get back. For now, I don't believe in LynchAllLurkers, which is why my vote isn't on him. If he still hasn't shown up near deadline (save for prod dodging posts), then I might vote him for lurking. An early lynch won't do us much good here. Even if he we lynch him soon for lurking and he does turn out to be scum, we'll have no more information about his buddies than before. So why not use our D2 to get more discussion going and, if he still plays this lurker game, we can deal with that near the end of the day?

As for Confid, I don't know if he's scum or being VI. I've come across someone similar before and thought he was almost surely scum for this kind of behavior, but he turned out to just be VI. Still he's one to keep an eye on.

@Confid, I think AGar was referring to your vote on Chrono, not your vote on me.

[KageLord]

I feel

FoS: AGar

is in order.

Two fingers now? You already FoSed him like 3 posts ago (a.k.a. near end of last page).

[KageLord]

Ignoring AGar for right now because it's not going to go anywhere. Also, don't want this to become flaming.

Still don't like KageLord setting up a policy lynch.

Might be a bit WIFOMy (I hate this excuse for ignoring an argument), but I don't know why I'd set up a policy lynch (not even sure how I could be since I assume he will post something semi-useful to save himself before the end of the day, rendering my "policy lynch setup" moot) on Chrono for the end of the day when I could have just as easily jumped on the already forming wagon. I wouldn't look any more conspicuous than the person who gave "Baa." as a reason.

[KageLord]

Well, considering the deadline, I'm going with the wagon right now that I think makes the most sense. Mostly I just like AGar's case and dislike this person's "cases".

Vote: ConfidAnon

[KageLord]

Could I have everybody's top two picks for scum and why? Mine are in #489.

As good a place to start my day as any, I suppose. Beefster and someone.

I would have said Confid as an answer if asked earlier, but with Chrono's flip, I have become less suspicious of him mainly because of his early sheep vote of him D2. If that was bussing... that was just terrible. I don't really see a reason for scum to vote another scum so early without even giving a reason. As I understand it, they would only get town points if they had a good reason to go along with their scumwagon vote.

In my only scum game so far, Beefster was my only scumbuddy. Thus, I think I know his scum meta decently well and some of his posts have been giving hits on my radar. The main reason I didn't vote him earlier was his rare posts that didn't mesh with his scum meta as I knew it and that I always had a better target in mind. Now that I am kind of at a dead end there, I think Beefster is a good enough target. Besides, Gamma's post above is pretty damning.

Vote: Beefster

[KageLord]

Correction. How I forgot my second suspect, I will never know. It's 4 AM.

Scumbags: Beefster >

KageLord >

smashbro_of_the_SSS > Prox > ConfidAnon > drmyshottyizsik

KageLord's behavior toward the Chronopie and ConfidAnon wagons are highly suspect. Recklessness versus caution and all that.

Can you explain more clearly what is suspect about my behavior on those wagons? Well, I can see how I would come under suspicion for my behavior on the Chrono topic since he flipped, but if you take it that I'm a pretty cautious player and didn't know Chrono's alignment (though I have seen him mislynched before for lurking or active lurking), don't you think my behavior makes sense for town?

Also, in response to your day 2 post link, what else would you put on the "case against Chrono" at that point? Out of the 4 people on that wagon, one of the reasons given was "Baa." and another was "lurking" (and Gamma said his pbpa was made worse because that was his only post with content, a.k.a. active lurking). So clearly lurking was a key point and at least one of the people on the wagon looked suspicious. As for ckd's case, points 1,2, and 5 all had to do with lurking. Points 3 and 4 were actual points, but at the time I mostly dismissed it as ckd being ckd and overreacting to someone saying he's overreacting (he really hates that and it makes him seem irrational sometimes). Clearly I was wrong about the result, but I don't know how I could have really had a scum motivation for saying that. It would only make myself look more suspicious if he ended up still getting lynched. The wagon wasn't really too close to lynch, so I don't know why a scumbuddy would risk being as obvious as that.

[KageLord]

Vote: silverbullet999

It should be obvious why.

[KageLord]

Vote: silverbullet999

It should be obvious why.

Hold it. No, it is not obvious why, and your posts don't indicate that you ever suspected silverbullet999. What is this?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: KageLord

Explain.

How is it not obvious that I'm voting him for messing around and not answering your question (and also thereby creating rifts within town, assuming you're both town)? Purposely avoiding stating scum suspects is at least anti-town. My vote isn't intended to get him lynched but to get him to actually answer.

The fact that you switch votes so readily indicates that you really don't care if he answers or not and you're just looking for reasons to vote people. Again, anti-town, though not necessarily scummy (exasperated town tends to do this).

No he just has a lot of IIoA and then claims to have reasons, but doesn't. He's hitting my gut hard with scummyness

Specific examples please. The "claims to have reasons but doesn't" is obviously opportunistic (and can only be applied to this one vote of mine). You're following Equinox's lead precisely and not even waiting to hear what my reasons are. As I just gave my reasons, this post is now a bold-faced lie. Can't argue against "gut", but at this point, that's excuses for the weak to pretend to scumhunt. I look forward to your brilliant scumhunting posts completely free of IIoA.

[KageLord]

F. The only lynch we have gotten right so far was the one the cop told us about in exchange for his life. Though, we got a lucky break here with Zorblag. 2 down!

In other news, I'll have to check out the ISO, but I'm feeling drmy as my choice from recent play.

[KageLord]

SS, you have a couple good points there about tumescence/drmy now that I look back at the post numbers you mention. Most of your analysis in fact seems to point to him. Is silverbullet's D4 play really enough to make up for scumminess spread out throughout the game by tumescence/drmy?

I'm sold.

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[KageLord]

@AGar-I really like your VC analysis so far but I'm most interested in what you think of the day 3 Troll/drmyshotty votes. If it weren't for that I'd agree with you on the drmyshotty/silver scumteam but your analysis points a lot to silver/Kage if you take drmyshotty out of the picture- at the end of the day one on one big wagon of d1 one on the other, with both not voting Chrono until the cop claim d2 and both getting on the Confid wagon before that happened.

Hmmm.... That's a good point. Kage and SB never end up on the same votee, and Kage actually completely avoids the Chrono vote. I know he didn't post, but he could've come in and seen the wagon building and decided to not post. I dunno, a bunch of dangerous thinking there, but still worth noting.

Interesting coincidence there about me and SB, but no, I didn't come in and see the post-cop Chrono wagon. By the time I saw the cop claim, he had already been hammered (and I didn't feel like going to L+1).

Also note about the Confid thing though that after Chrono flips, I believe Confid town (despite the later wagon(s) that scum could jump on). I think it was on my first post of D3 that I mentioned Confid seemed unlikely scum to me for his "Baa." vote on Chrono (as opposed to before, where he looked scummy for that sheep vote).

[KageLord]

I have no problem with mass claim.

Top 3 are Kage, drmy and SB. Smash drew a few pings with that last VC. SB looked really bad in D1/D2, but has looked a bit better D3/D4. Kage looked null in D1/D2, but really thrusted himself into the scumlight on D3 and followed up with a strong performance D4. Drmy's slot lurked for like 3 game days, he came in and was instantly just playing bad. Not sure where to stand fully on it, but it doesn't look good. Kage/Drmy trying hard to cross bus at times?

Can you explain the part about the "strong performance D4"? Is staying on SB and ignoring growing wagons scummy now (especially if you look at my vote in context, which was when SB was messing around with Equi)?

What's this about cross bussing? If I understand that right, wouldn't that require me to be voting him (frequently or powerfully)?

[KageLord]

Lol, 4 posts in a week (one on Monday, one on Thursday, one just then, and I guess a 4th right now) is a lot?

[KageLord]

I'm a VT.

Go SC!

[KageLord]

... Why did you self-hammer? If you're town, you do realize that by self-hammering you put us in mylo tomorrow, right? If today had been a no-lynch, at least tomorrow wouldn't be mylo (though the hopefully 2 days after would be).

[KageLord]

So... where is this magic information we got from SB's death?

Btw, we're in mylo.

[KageLord]

Interesting find in Zorblag's ISO 9 and 10.

People asked about why Zorblag would bus drmy as a partner and I think when you look at those two consecutive posts in a row it becomes more believable. We know now that both Chrono and Zor were scum, so I wouldn't be surprised if Zor tried to bus twice in a row (having tried it before with tumescence, but without town following).

And that drmy vote was the last post he ever made. No real significance to that, I think, but I just thought it should be said.

[KageLord]

Did you breadcrumb at all, curiouskarma? I mean, why are we all taking this as true? This could just as easily be a scum gambit. With four scum, one could be put up as a pawn to be targeted by the "cop", and supposedly confirm this "cop". Then a doc could protect this "cop" each night and basically run this game with "town reads". Also, a cop counterclaim might not even exist, because of the setup.

On a different note, I do believe that Chronopie would end up scum when dead, scum gambit or actual cop. so i will be glad to vote chronopie when the time comes, but for now, I'll wait for everyone to see and comment. But I think we should take this claim with a grain of salt. I mean, so far nothing has led me to believe curiouskarma was scum, but I'm not quite sure why a cop would claim after only one night of investigations, when there are 4 scum running around.

Just thought I'd bring this up now in case I'm not here tomorrow. This was posted a couple posts after Chrono's lynch was decided (through ckd's being cop and claiming) and a post or two after Beefster's L+1. Think of it what you will for now.

I think I actually agree with Gamma. These last two people I cast suspicion on aren't necessarily my two scumpicks and I think I would rather not let scum know who my picks are until after the night. If we can burn a night here first, I think it might be to our advantage since it's mylo anyway.

Vote: No Lynch

[KageLord]

I still think drmyshotty is town. I KNOW that he's been scummy throughout the game but I just can't imagine Zorblag immediately going after a scummy maf partner near the start of the day with both a viable mislynch right in front of him AND the biggest threat the mafia PR-wise just killed- I think he was trying to set up an alternate town wagon. I don't see it as a smart play for him to bus then, and from what I've seen he seems like a fairly smart player.

I originally agreed with this, but note that his last post before voting drmy was voting Chrono, who we now know was his partner. Maybe he just wanted townie points for being the Chrono hammer though. Zorblag is hard to predict.

Anyway, smashbro and drmy are still my biggest two suspects, in that order.

[KageLord]

Common factor = smash. We still have to hear from him and singer.

[KageLord]

Sup. So here's the thing. We aren't confident that the two flipped scum were on the same team, right? So the unfortunate thing about the situation we're in, is that we can't bank on too many connections, right? We don't know for sure that Zorblag was Chrono's partner, so it might not have been a bus on purpose, which means we can't overlook any possibility, ESPECIALLY in LyLo.

Gamma...I never got any particular scum vibes from Kage. My top suspects from the very beginning of my replacement were silver, drmy, and smash. I thought I'd originally vote drmy or smash (mostly smash), but silverbell just ultimately seemed scummier in the end. Why do you think drmy is so town?

Ah. I hadn't considered that the two scum teams might not know who the other team is. It seems unlikely though. If the two teams were separate, wouldn't there be two kills a night? If only one team could kill anyway, the other team would have nothing to do (especially since we know all remaining scum are goons) at night. Also, if they didn't know each other, it seems like they probably would have hit the other scum at some point. I think it's more likely that they know each other and decide on a kill together.

Gamma already answered the last.

@Gamma, I never really got any vibes at all from Singer or Prox. I couldn't even tell you now what Prox did in this game (which is an indicator that I should probably look at Prox in iso). Singer had a pretty good post when she replaced in and since then has kind of been filed away in the back of my mind. So no read either way. That probably warrants an iso of her as well. drmy and smash, on the other hand, have been pretty consistently scummy. The only thing stopping drmy from being top on my list is Zorblag's vote. I would be comfortable enough with a smash lynch today.

[KageLord]

Okay, so at this point I'm thinking the scumteam must be either Gamma and singer or drmy and smash. Obviously the latter is the one that I considered more scummy for the whole game, but the former can't be entirely ruled out. Guess I'll check out Gamma and singer's ISOs in relation to each other.

[KageLord]

This won't be QUITE as word-filled as I thought due to shotty and singer's shenanigans yesterday, so I'll go over that first.

The fact that singer stopped the early LYLO vote instead of waiting it out for a hammer means that she's damn likely town UNLESS she's scum with drshotty trying to stop him from making the day about me vs. him. This doesn't make much sense either though-singer came pretty hard against drmyshotty since she joined, and more importantly was going for his lynch under a wrong understanding of the scumteams. A scum might try and go after a townie with a false understanding but it makes No sense to try and get your scum-partner lynched with it, especially with as many things shotty has done so far this game to earn a vote.
~Short version:singer doesn't make sense as anyone's partner except shotty's because of reason a, and doesn't make sense as shotty's partner because of reason b-I would be pretty amazed if she wasn't town.

This was pretty much exactly my thinking when I made my last post. However, there is one other possibility that you don't mention. That possibility would be that the team is you (Gamma) and singer. Even though I think drmy/smash is more likely than Gamma/singer, I just want to point this out as a possibility not to be overlooked. Of course if you are singer's partner, singer would try to get the vote off of you (that reasoning is an easy way to do so) if she can be somewhat inconspicuous about it. It kind of fits in perfectly if that were the case. But still, as I said before, I am still leaning drmy/smash.

[KageLord]

Deadline is tomorrow night!

[KageLord]

Man this game is dead.

@Kage- It's probably obvious but I didn't bother putting out a possibility that I know to be false since I know I'm town.

Aye. I just wanted to make sure that possibility didn't go unnoticed by those of us that aren't 100% sure that you're town.

I'm also going to wait until tomorrow to vote.

[KageLord]

lol I after reading singer's vote, I was about to ask if anyone had objections before I hammer. Then I saw dr's hammer. >>

Well... let's hope for another sunrise!

[KageLord]

God... this is difficult. drmy has been screaming scummy the whole game, but it could just be his playstyle and Gamma has just been playing pretty good scum.

[KageLord]

Personal experience: first voter in Final 3 is scum.

Then again... it's still drmy. Whatever. Gonna have to make this decision at some point.

[KageLord]

I hope no one blames me if we lose because of this...

Vote: drmyshottyizsik

[KageLord]

and also, I would not have supported the massclaim at that point I believe. While it would confirm two town, those roles are valuable when there are less people left. It also told us scum that we could feel free to kill the most protown and not have to worry about any powerroles

On the other side of that though, if we did have town PRs, they could have just lied and said VT and if you believed it (as you just said you would), that would be to town's advantage. Making you underestimate us, so to speak.

Agreed on ckd's claim though. I wish he had waited and possibly just breadcrumbed Chrono. If he ended up dying that night anyway without claiming, we might have been able to guess his result on Chrono based on how much he pushed him that day. I did something similar (didn't claim but breadcrumbed) when I was Cop once and it worked out alright (though I did end up dying that night since I got caught by scum watcher).

Good game anyway.

[KageLord]

Game is definitely and finally over after about 2 and a half months.
I'm Finally Free.

... Is this hinting that you're scum? >>

[KageLord]

Now I just feel silly. I was honestly leaning toward you might be scum and drmy is just a super scummy player no matter what he is, but the end was just too much. If the scumminess factor was given points out of 100, by the end it would have been something like Gamma - 25 and drmy - 90. Not much of a choice as far as I saw.

But well done. Good decision-making as far as who to NK goes.

And Son Goku is ultimately defeated by... Mega Man. >>

[KageLord]

I mean hell gamma even admits that his reasoning on hopping my wagon were shoddy... and what did i do... point this out in game. But everyone tunneled me, threw my words to the curb and completely ignored them, and throws my words aside because they think i'm scum.

Honestly though If I were scum... why the hell would I kill off my "top" suspect? I was the scapegoat cause town tunneled. simple.

Also because you were generally difficult. Refusing to seriously answer questions is anti-town/scummy. Plain and simple.