Open 205 - Medical Mafia - Game Over Too Soon?

[Phaen]

I've just been notified that I'm indeed replacing kyle. Unfortunately its just before bed, so I wont be able to jump in fo realz until tomorrow after class.

[Phaen]

Mod: What order do deaths happen at night?

Ex: If Quack targets CPR who targets Scum,
a) Do both the CPR and the Scum die?
b) Does only the CPR die?

[Phaen]

Mod: What order do deaths happen at night?

Ex: If Quack targets CPR who targets Scum,
a) Do both the CPR and the Scum die?
b) Does only the CPR die?

I hope this is a prelude to a catch-up post...

Yeah I was reading the first couple pages and I started to go off on a tangent trying to figure out the possible outcomes of mykonian's plan.

:arrow: If we mislynch today the circle plan is horrible

Worst Case Scenario

4 deaths at night, bringing us to 2 doc vs 2 mafia D2 (loss).
This has a 9.3% chance of happening unless I calculated things wrong.
1 NK from scum (1 in 1 chance because they know who's unprotected)
1 weak doctor might die (2 in 7 chance)
2 doctor deaths from CPR and quack (4 in 7 chance) (4 in 7 chance)

Most likely

2-3 doctors die and 0 scum (~60% chance). D2 is 3-4 doctors vs 2 scum. So basically lylo.

If we're lucky

2-3 doctors die and 1 scum (~30% chance). D2 is 3-4 doctors vs 1 scum.

Best Case Scenario

both the CPR and Quack both hit different mafia. Automatic win for us!
Too bad the chances of this happening are like 1% though, perhaps even less.

:arrow: If we lynch scum today, the plan isn't bad.

Worst Case Scenario

still 4 deaths, but it would leave us with 3 docs vs. 1 mafia.
It would also leave us with enough information to narrow down the scum.
Example: one possible scenario (strikethru = death)
A ->

B

-> C -> D ->

E

->

F

-> G ->

H

This tells us several things. One of the dead are a weak doctor and only one mafia exists, so D is cleared because C didn't die. A and G are more likely to be scum than C because scum is more likely to want to NK the target they know is unprotected (as X mentioned on page Y). We know C isn't a CPR or quack because D didn't die.

It's not an ideal situation, but as a worst case scenario, this really isn't that bad.

Most likely

2-3 doctors and 0 scum will die (~60% chance). D2 will be 4-5 doc vs. 1 mafia.

Best Case Scenario

either the CPR or the Quack hits the final mafia. Automatic win! (~30% chance)

Based on the above, I think we definitely should

not

use this plan tonight if we lynch the wrong person today. However, if we lynch right today, this plan might be worth the risk. With only one mafia left, the vigs could have a pretty good chance of winning the game for town overnight.

[Phaen]

Its not a waste of time. I'm not familiar with the setup so when I heard his plan and I heard everyone saying it wouldn't work, it made me wanna whip out a calculator to see if its really as bad as people are saying. How is it a bad thing to analyze it?

[Phaen]

P.S. sorry I'm so slow. I'm not done reading yet. I'm on pg. 4

I don't like the early mykonian bandwagon.
The speed at which it happened makes me think its fueled by scum.

Mindgamer seems like he has tunnel vision, focusing solely on mykonian.
I don't like mykonian's reason for voting Mindgamer in post #81. Sarcasticaly scum claiming isn't really a tell.
Looker is a little erratic, but he's not being scummy.
Light is only making short posts that don't analyze any players and I find that scummy.

[Phaen]

That was the freaking shortest game ever....

I'm kinda glad it ended though because I probably would have been hung on D2 for going AWOL.

[Phaen]

OP for the town, especially with sanity roleflips.

There weren't supposed to be any sanity roleflips and indeed there weren't any while the game was in session. The "Normal Doctor" reveal happened after the game was over. Might have been a mistake might have been on purpose but it didn't affect the game.

[Phaen]

Thanks for the happy birthdays ~ ♥

I know I picked up my prod but I think I would have been under suspicion for "intentional absence"

[Phaen]

Was there a quicktopic for us to read? =D