Open 209: The Invasion of Liten (Game Over)

[SFG]

YOU ARE NOT THE COP! I AM THE ONE TRUE COP! BOW BEFORE ME!

also hai Nik ilu

[SFG]

1. Do you prefer town or scum?
I prefer power, I don't care if I'm on the light side or dark side of the Force.

2. Is lurking a scum tell?
It depends. I "lurk" on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays because I have little free time those days. If you want to know how much free time I have, ask Nik, because I tend to be on IRC when I have time and not when I don't. :P

3. Do you prefer town hunting or scum hunting?
scumhunting. You will never find scum by the process of elimination. (unless by elimination you mean lynching them)

4. How active do you normally consider yourself, in-game?
I am very active when I am here, and still sort of active but a lot less in-depth when I'm not here.

5. Policy lynches—good or bad?
Circumstantial. IMO there are two good places for policy-lynch. One of them is if we don't have a solid lead yet on D1, and the other is if we have 5 or 6 players left and we've lynched three of the four mafia, and two of the remaining players are exceedingly scummy. (aka, lynch them both)

6. Lynch All Liars—good or bad?
Bad. Lying is circumstantial and I believe there are some, even many times when it is pro-town for a town player to lie (for instance, claiming VT when you're a Doctor to allow the ability of unroleblocked protects and not being nightkilled). I hope that we can tell the difference by now between pro-town lying and scum lying.

7. Is it scummy to vote without immediately giving the reason?
It's scummy to say that this is scummy.

8. Is it bad to out your town reads?
This is largely a matter of individual playstyle, and you should do what fits you best. Also, if you are about to be hammered, I highly recommend taking the time to post any and all reads you have just in case.

[SFG]

vote: Sanhora

Talk. Nao.

[SFG]

Sanhora has not yet posted, and if there's one thing I hate, its a lurker. Lurking isn't scummy, its just antitown. Very. Anti. Town.

[SFG]

Also, I'm not much of a fan of D1 wagons, although I recognize the technique as valid. If I see someone at L-1 for no good reason, I'm going to examine that wagon real hard, too.

[SFG]

nice boldface, Sniper. Glad to see you talking, though. What do you think of the wagons going on right now? Do you find any significance in Haylen's self-vote and Slaxx's comment about voting himself?

[SFG]

And for SFG: by what other means do you enjoy gathering information?

Generally my late-game play is significantly better than my early-game play, which tends to unfortunately invite pressure on me at the beginnings of games. I work best when I have an actual grounding in other people, aka after someone has already flipped, but I also point out logic flaws in other people's arguments in a way that has been construed as defense or attack, but really is intended to be neither. I tend to trust my gut because frequently, my gut picks up on something wrong in someone's play long before my analytical mind catches up to it.

If you want meta from me, I have a wiki page of my thus far meager set of games here. I've given up on newbie games for now because the players have an unfortunate tendency to skinny-dip in scum pools before joining games, resulting in frequent town-omgus when I can't find the townie beneath all the scum. I have also been lynched for the same misnamed "scumtell" twice and would appreciate it if people familiarize themselves with it now because that is simply what I do when I am under pressure and no amount of logic or experience seems to help that.

That said, I would like to hear from other players what their meta is. I've played with Nikanor in IRC before, but the rest of you are unfamiliar to me. If you don't feel like describing in words, please link me to two games, one scum and one town, that you think I should read.

[SFG]

also, two things
1. this is a way of voting that I picked up from Troll as a better way to RVS. I pick the first person I find who has confirmed but not posted, and vote them. I'm not really wagoning on her, nor do I intend to at this stage of the game...I just want her to talk.

2. IMGEOSFG means what, now?

[SFG]

I'm sorry, somehow Nikanor got caught up in my Gender.Random(); and her gender is now changing between "he" "she" "it" and "heshe" alongside mine. She will, I am sure, notify you of the correct pronoun at any given point in time, although it is unfortunate that MS doesn't have the gender symbols for "it" and "heshe" yet.

Also, I have a good enough meta grounding for Nik, Hay, Pul, and SPS. I would like groundings from everyone else as well, with the warning that if you do not give me a grounding, I may misperceive some of your normal town play as scummy.

[SFG]

@Pul, I have also seen a game where perhaps the best player of the game claimed scum, not really as antitown so much as he wasn't sadistic enough to stick some other player into a game that looked more like 4chan than mafia. Sometimes things just aren't worth it...

[SFG]

You really gotta love SFG's vote on me. Stating herself that there are days that she 'lurks' and then want me to talk. Thursday is my busiest day, with a possible exception of the weekend.

Well how was I to know that? Anyways, you're good now.

unvote

You poor poor thing, what games did you read?

I read the game that Pul linked, Sanhora and SPS provided brief summaries of their meta, and I've played with Nik on IRC very frequently (although I suppose that means I know his IRC meta better than his forum meta).

I did some egregious skimming so I'll have to reread, but SPS needs to be dead right now.

Why so sure?

@Max, I honestly can't tell if that was a joke or not. At any rate, since you decided to show up, mind enlightening me on your meta instead of throwing dirt at whoever catches your fancy?

@Nik's accusation of active lurking. Remember what day yesterday is? That's right, it was a Thursday. What days did I say I had a lot of class? Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.
also btw I hate the beginning of Day 1 with a fiery passion and I guess you missed me on IRC yesterday as "essay" asking people to lynch me so I wouldn't have to write me

That said, i am going to vote for...hm, someone who has confirmed but not posted yet.
...? Max has posted but not confirmed, and our mod is obviously present. xP Go read your role pm before you start playing, please, it wreaks havoc with me retrospective reads.

Actually, he told me he forgot to confirm via PM, which I took as a confirmation. I haven't gotten around to updating the first post yet. Doing so now...

Actually, everyone has posted now. Time to start looking for scum~

[SFG]

oh crypto, you poor thing, you've had the experience of playing with muh. Much pity for you. At any rate, I think I have a sense of your town meta and the mere fact that you've never been scum will suffice for your scum meta

Sadly, I can't read two games at once, so I will reread this current game when I finish packing (spring break next week!)

[SFG]

also @Nik, meta comes before scumhunting at this point in the game because about half of all potential scumtells thus far could easily also be meta tells.

[SFG]

Haylen

A lot of frustratingly little content, but interaction in there too, and reasonably explained by her most recent post.

Sanhora

Fashionably late to the party.
A little bit of misrepresentation directed at me there, I voted you because of a method I picked up from Troll at the end of my first game here (see #29). I explained this rather badly, but you also got pretty defensive there. You say that this is your meta, but I would like a link to an example post or game to be sure.
Why don't you like the Nico wagon? I would like at least one point against it to back up your argument.

Max

Please post content.

Pulindar

I didn't notice it before but it bugs me now that its on my radar...in Post 1 (ISO) you subtly imply that you and Haylen aren't a scumpair. This mostly bugs me because of how subtle it is.
You really weren't into early wagons in the game I read, yet you are trying to start them now. Any reason for the change of heart?
Likes Nico for attacking her, interesting. Will be even more interesting later in the game.
Also, I notice that in the Science game you were fawning over BM townhunting, you say you intend to copy his strategy, yet you also say you do scumhunting, not townhunting
Likes Nika for her defense, interesting.
Overall someone to keep an eye on as the game progresses, although I will be keeping my other eye on anyone whose post count is half or less than average.

Alduskkel

The only thing you've done is hopped on a wagon, placing it at L-2. I would like explanation because this is part of the critical point of a wagon where scum tend to jump on.

crypto

Why do you find nonparticipation in RVS scummy?
why do you feel the need to mark your like...6th serious question as being serious, when you didn't mark the others?
Why does SPS need to be dead now?
Finally, in ISO 30, you misattributed a quote about your avatar to me. The quote is actually from Nik
Overall getting slight town vibes from you.

Nikanor

obv. one or the other of us is scum because i CC'd his Cop claim.
decent amounts of scumhunting mixed with lol.
I don't find your case on Nico particularly telling, but then again, at this point in time nothing is particularly telling.
Also, for my style of scumhunting, it actually takes me 1-3 hours to make a post, depending on how many people I'm looking at and how late it is in the game, as well as the density of scumtells and towntells in their posts. I started this one an hour ago and I'm about halfway through, not counting breaks to help my boyfriend pack.

SFG

Obvscum. I mean come on, he should just change his name to Scummy McGoon and be done with it.

Steam-Powered Shovel

dislike posts 1 and 2
strike that you answered it in the next post
I would like you to try and make a post about a player other than Nico soonish. You seem to have a bit of an obsession with his scumminess.

Slaxx

very very little content at first
then you throw out a couple questions and go back to no content.
i dont like you

horrordude0215

i see by your title that you are a noob.
misrep right in post 0, probably a joke or noobishness
other than that, you have all the qualities of active lurking except for "over an extended period of time"
congratulations.

Nicodemus

really aggressive play style. REALLY aggressive. Do you have a couple meta games you could link me while you work at getting that stick out of your butt?

Sniper

content: 0
votes: 1
please post with actual content, and also your name makes it obvious that you are a vig, and you should totally claim that right now.

[SFG]

Does anybody have preference of who to lynch first?

If this is the question you are so fond of yelling at people for not answering, may I suggest that the reason you aren't getting answers is because people are still sorting out their scum lists?

Nothing else bears immediate response, so I will go play IRC mafia for awhile now until dinner, and stalk the game that lynched me.

[SFG]

@Pulinor, sorry for the gender confusion. My changing gender is intended to be fun, but if you don't find it so feel free to refer to me by my gender icon. Also thanks for the meta on Slaxx.

@crypto, I am pointing out anything and everything that I find interesting and potentially useful later game, including potential buddying, potential town tells, and potential scumtells. Key word: potential. Most of the things I pointed out will not matter in the long run and simply give me a place to start. This is partly in response to Nik's complaints that my posts didn't contain enough content, partly because I'm trying to get the ball rolling here, and partly so you can see what my scumhunting looks like (and therefore, why it is significantly more effective in later game).
I am asking people questions because I want to judge their responses.

In the long run, you will see two or three of these summaries congeal into an actual case and that is the point at which you should start seriously considering them.

[SFG]

Could you clarify the italicized portion? I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Nico's scumminess is the only noteworthy event that has transpired as far as I'm concerned.

The italicized portion is me making a comment after reading (i believe) post 3 which you then answered in post 4. You get to see a lot of my thoughts

so yeah, basically what Pul said, lol

[SFG]

You should see a doctor about that...oh wait, there aren't any. You should go see our Minister for that, then.

[SFG]

Ok, not having the luxury of tabs on my iPhone and forgetting what, exactly, Nik asked of me, I'm going to list everyone I have a read on from scummiest to towniest. Will give more explanation later.

Max
SPS
Sanhora
Sniper
---------
Pul
Nika
crypto

names not listed are neutral by lack of sufficient tells

[SFG]

Oh btw Sniper, you might want to read the global announcement, "Moratorium on Trolling" by mith. Just sayin'

[SFG]

*bored* all right since no one else is bothering to post I guess I'll stop checking this topic. It's like 100% derailed except for me atm anyways :/

[SFG]

im not going to vote Max because it could be misconstrued as OMGUS

vote:SPS

[SFG]

im not going to vote Max because it could be misconstrued as OMGUS

vote:SPS

Eh? If you suspect Max, vote for him! Are you so worried about looking scummy that you'll refuse to vote for one of your suspects?

FoS: SFG

.

I've been misconstrued as scummy in every single game thus far because people are stupid and think that things I do out of interest for the town are actually scummy.

Max is also under a bit of pressure already and I'd like to place some pressure on lesser suspects.

[SFG]

SFG's Rules of Being a Townie:

1. Find scum. This is your first and foremost priority

2. Do not let yourself be lynched* You will be wasting precious town resources.

*unless it is strategically necessary to out the scum


Now, my D1 play being weak as I've already stated, because apparently the type of scumhunting I do (taking critical notes of all players and analyzing them individually) looks scummy to everyone else, I've placed Rule 2 as a priority until such a time as my scumhunting has an outlet to pick up.

Also @crypto, I didn't "place a vote on nonsuspects," I placed a vote on my #2 scummiest. In case you y'know, actually bothered to read my scum list. In fact, if you read my scum list, you will also see that my "throwing mud at everyone" actually yielded 4 potential scum and 3 potential town, and a bunch of null reads. 'cus 4 is totally everyone.

Seems like another game where every action I can possibly take is scummy, even scum hunting....

[SFG]

Also for the record, I still don't understand Max's case against me, which factors into why I'm hesitant to vote him. There are more effective ways of going about things, and this way two of my top two suspects both get pressured.

[SFG]

btw if you want to see rule #2 in action, look at Day 3 of the first game on my wiki. If you want to see the exception to rule #2, look at Day 3 of the second game on my wiki.

[SFG]

very short temp. post before church.

If your overriding concern is not get lynched, how are we to determine your alignment? As townie, I always try to play as naturally as I can, guilelessly.

I never said that it was overriding. I don't want to be lynched, no, but I want to start prioritizing 1 as soon as I have something more than a few straws here and there to build a case from. Right now, the one time I went out collecting straws and seeing what I could do, like three people jumped on me for "flinging mud."
Certainly I don't want to be lynched before the game gets into what I call the "middle game," which is when my scumhunting starts to become much more powerful than it does in the "early game."

I stated that in one of my first posts on this thread.


I don't like Sniper or Nico's playstyle atm, but I want it to pan out a bit more so maybe I can see if 1. one of them flakes out or 2. their goals become more clear.

[SFG]

Yes. You know what also makes it harder for people to scumhunt? Having to defend themselves from people who think scumhunting is scummy.

SPS, what do you think of my scumhunting post and subsequent list of reads?

[SFG]

What parts do you disagree with, and why?

crypto: please explain to me what is so scummy about my scumhunting post and why.

[SFG]

oops, name/avatar fail. That was meant to be directed at Slaxx, not crypto.

everyone: what is your take on my reads?

[SFG]

*watches a tumbleweed roll by to the whisper of a baked wind*

[SFG]

I still enjoy haylens posts. I can't explain it, but I really do.

You'll notice that I have her down as a neutral read. This kind of behavior seems par for Haylens meta as I understand it (which, SPS, is why I don't find her scummy)

1. I had been asking St. Kerrigan if I could be scum partners with Haylen ever since I heard he was making a game like this....

Fair enough. I wanted to be cop mason siblings with Nikanor so I think I understand :P

2. ... So, the change of heart is due to the change of game size.

Very logical, I like it

3. I still like Nico's attack on me. others say that they find it grasping at straws, but I think it's more of trying to solve the logic.

My personal take on the attack is twofold: 1. He may be trying to start discussion and get us out of RVS 2. He just plays aggressively. Incidentally, this has also earned him a neutral read.

4. I liked how he approached things, and in a small game like that narrowing down town really could have won it. In a game like this that would be difficult to do. I took a leaf from his book with my vote on San though. I was trying to find an inconsistency with you actually. You said you didn't want a bandwagon, and I was trying to form one before San got back, unfortunately she got back early so... yeah it didn't work, but still I did try. I wanted to see what you would do

I don't know, I think I would have stayed on her as a matter of principle unless she was under serious threat (L-2), at which point I would probably get upset at the people bandwagoning onto her and move my vote to one of them. If that helps any.

BTW I'm a he :shock:

whoopsie

Nika's reasoning was good. She was trying to explain away the slanted accusation I put at her, and she explained it well.

I'm noting associations and reactions. Not accusing you of being scummy for having associated and reacted.

SFG

2. why do you claim scum in such a joking manner after being angry at me for asking SK to make me scum with Haylen.

Actually, I do that in pretty much every game where I make a list like this. You can do the research if you'd like, or you can take my word for it.

I can attest that that's just how Slaxx plays. I don't know what his alignment is in our game (still ongoing) but that is how he plays.

Again, all I said was "I don't like you." If you need a translation, that roughly means "I dislike your playstyle, which is somewhat incompatible with mine" rather than "I think you are scummy." Note that I have Slaxx listed as a neutral read for the moment too.

Here's to hoping that activity picks up in here soon. If not I will just be requesting prods enne masse tomorrow :P

[SFG]

Max there are a few things wrong with what you just said.

1. You accused me of being scummy first in Post 120 and the first post you reference of mine as being scummy is Post 224. Unless you are somehow precognescent, you arent playing with a full deck of cards here.

2. I've explained about Post 21 of mine already, which you ignored. Post 23 is a logic-based defense of my actions and I do not see what is possibly scummy about saying, oh, that crypto should stop twisting my words to make them look scummier than they actually are. Maybe you should explain that to me in more detail. Post 26 is an analysis of my meta that people could, if they were not lazy, find in other games of mine.

3. Why do you hate meta so much that the discussion of meta made you decide that crypto is scummy? Meta is extremely important, if for no other reason, then because it keeps players from making the same mistakes every single time (like lynching me because I crack under pressure. Cus of course no townie ever cracked under pressure ever ever ever.)

[SFG]

Also Max, you also might want to consider that voting can be used as...say...a scumhunting technique? Or even just a threat to get someone who needs to talk to talk. There are like 200 ways of using a vote and only about 50 of them involve actually getting the person you're voting lynched.

That said, I am becoming more satisfied with SPS and will now

unvote

and in his place

vote Sniper

Vote will be removed when you post something of value to the rest of the town, rather than a claim that may or may not be a lie.
I mean come on, if it were just that simple of "hey guys, raise you're hand if you're a townie" and then lynching the people who didn't raise their hands, there would be no point to the game.

[SFG]

ok. Post 90 wasn't even my post so I cannot say why crypto did that. That's the only of the three posts that really has anything to do with me and I can't honestly see why crypto, for all practical purposes, FoSing me is a conclusive buddying case between the two of us.

[SFG]

crypto, note that I spoke my reasoning in the post I voted in. I will also remove my vote if Sniper gets to L-2.

*sigh* this is oddly reminiscent of N862D2

[SFG]

@SFG: Why would you out that you're going to take the vote off? Why not just do it when it happens and check for reactions?

Because I've already stated that as my intention for mild pressure votes in a previous post.

@crypto, why are you accusing me of trying to get out of scumhunting when at least volume/effort wise I've done more scumhunting than more than half the town? That makes no sense.

Also, I would not like to see the first lynch before the game progresses farther towards midgame.
(for those who need definitions, pregame = RVS. early game = cases are grasping at straws, very little content. middle game = cases based on accumulation of scumtells and other similar things, or occasionally a cc or obvscum. late game = most everyone is sure of their reads, and these reads have the proper number of scum and town (but not necessarily agreed))

@Furry, welcome to the game, sorry that you are currently reading me as scum. It would have been much easier on everyone if you noted who you were talking to in your quick readthrough, because I really don't feel like opening up a seventh MS tab to try and figure out what all of these posts were.

One more thing that bugs me. You guys keep saying "x and y are scum" like there is no possibility that they aren't. This early in a game, how would you know? If you were saying "x and y are town" like that, I would call it a scumtell.

[SFG]

I wonder if there is an availability bias at work here. I'm always considered scummy. I always have the most post volume, word for word. Because I have more post volume, I have more potential to say things that can be interpreted as scumtells, therefore people find more scumtells in my posts simply because there is more post, and therefore they decide that I must be scum because of the sheer volume of scumtell.

This is not unlike the time when someone found 11 misinterpretations in my 157 posts and decided that since there were so many "lies" it provided conclusive evidence that the townie I was must be scum.

[SFG]

Honestly, I'm starting to thing Haylen is town because she's playing so badly

[SFG]

WHOA WHOA WHOA

unvote unvote unvote unvote unvote unvote

we are not ready for a lynch yet! Even if we know who we are going to lynch, we need more content to feed off of before we go into Day 2.

Geez, I leave for one day and everyone tries to wagon.

[SFG]

lynching scum > lynching trolls > lynching territownies

obv. we should be trying for a scum lynch today. At the very least, we should settle for some good leads on who might be scum and if we run into deadline problems, thats when we might need to pull a policy lynch. I may agree to policy lynching Sniper eventually, but now is NOT the time for it guys.

[SFG]

I've played nine games offsite where it eventually became policy to lynch/nk me in the first couple days because I was too much better than the other players, and then the game devolved into lurker haven and the scum always won because the town was lazy.

I've played two games onsite, one of which I fell into a puddle of scum shortly after replacing in and was lynched in lylo for it because the other townie was tunneling on my early scumminess. The other one, I spent most of the game I was alive for focused on a townie who had also taken a scumbath recently, and once I realized he was actually town, I picked out the other scum and convinced the others to take the strategy of "just lynch us both," and won.

You decide if that counts as playing a good game of mafia

Also apologies for not being on more, today is my run-around-everywhere day and now I've coughed up about 60 lungs and counting (they sell nice on ebay, at least) and am completely exhausted. I should go back and ISO people again soon cus there's been more activity now, but something in the back of my head says there are like 3 people who need prodding. Can't be arsed to figure out who.

[SFG]

Slaxx: I am okay with reaction testing. I do not think it is conclusive evidence, or even in this case particularly strong evidence, but it is a kind of evidence that can be used in cases and tells.

Also it looks like prod periods of 72 hours instead of 48 are throwing off my estimates a little, but Max and Nik are headed for prods soon (Puli is v/la so she doesn't count).

[SFG]

SFG did post after the fifth vote had been placed without mentioning it, even though I felt it was pretty clear what direction we were heading in, so I'm not sure how genuine her move was.

Unlike most people, I do not keep vote counts in my head, especially not when I'm passing through between dinner and karate. Then Slaxx specifically noted that Sniper was at L-1 and I freaked out.

[SFG]

Forgive me, I have managed to get myself sick again and won't be posting as much until I stop being sick xP

[SFG]

Alright, since Slaxx has gone and nicely given me a ton of stuff about him to analyze, I will now go and ISO Slaxx for great justice.

Hm...this will require excessive tabbing wheeee~

In post 6, you practically write an ode to bandwagons, and then in the following post you say "Not very happy with the Nic bandwagon." I thought bandwagons were our Excalibur against the scum!

Post 9 synopsis: Ald - no read; crypto - town read; Haylen - dislike; horror - neutral; Max - scum; Nic - neutral; Nika - towneutral; Puli - neutral; San - dislike; SFG - scum; Sniper - neutral; SPS - scum

Post 12 - following up scum read with a vote

#14 - thoughts on Nic decline

#15 - Sniper read becomes scummier, all else consistent

#16 - switches vote to another scum read

#19 - I guess this follows your bandwagon principle or whatever. Not getting warm fuzzy feelings from me for it, though...

#22-23 - you still havent explained to my satisfaction why you would rather off the village idiot than the people you keep saying are scum.

#25 - reverses read on me, and townifies Ald

You are actively encouraging discussion, which gets you brownie points from me Mind you, brownie points count towards "how much I like you" rather than "how much I think you are scummy."

#35 - 10 posts ago you said you thought Ald was townish. Now either he or Max is scum. Since you have a scum read on Max and a town read on Ald, why the dichotomy?

New set of reads summary: Ald - town; crypto - scum (what happened? things you were calling townish before, you're now reading as scummy. Why the change?); Furry - towneutral; Haylen - unreadable; Max - obvscum; Nic - scum; Nika - neutrascum; Puli - town; San - unread; SFG - towneutral

#45 - gives me really good vibes, actually. I have a tendency to state things that work against my cases in cases that I build because 90% of the time they do exist and I don't want to blindside myself by ignoring a critical mitigation in a town player's play.

[SFG]

Also I would like to say, I'm willing to give our closed-mouthed Max another Day to give more reasoning, because I have seen a player whose scumhunting relied so heavily on secrecy of intent that he nearly got lynched Day 1 for the exact same reasons we are now thinking of lynching Max. Then he got NK'd Night 1, which should tell you something about both his accuracy and his alignment...

[SFG]

Saying that, 'Hey, I'm a townie!' is a fairly reliable town-tell in my books. The reason for that is that scum don't like lying. Lying gets scum caught, so they get into the mindset of truthfulness.

I'm a towniiiieeeeeee bed

Would be voting Crypto at this point but im not putting one down untill after I get done with my read.

I totally do not agree with this. What makes you think crypto is the scummiest?

Somehow I don't think you were actually quoting crypto here...wanna try again?

[quote="Nika]I'm at a loss of what to think about Sniper's self-vote. It looks like an attempted self-hammer, but the fact that he unvoted right afterward makes me think otherwise. I'll have to ponder this for awhile. [/quote]
I think that he realized he did something very stupid and was trying to cover it up real quick with a flimsy reason for why he might have done it. Which is neutrascum imo

So what do you think of Slaxx, SFG? Town or scum?

It depends very strongly on how he answers the questions/contradictions I found, specifically the ones in ISO 6-7, 22-23, 35, and concerning crypto.

[SFG]

Two things

1. You had better remember this on Day 4 and, if Lord Chronos is still alive, that party is GOING to happen.

2. Max, your WIFOM argument doesn't even make sense. I'm not saying "I think everyone should leave Max alone because he's obviously a townie like that other game," I'm saying that there is enough of a chance in my mind that you might be a townie that I would not be happy with a lynch on you yet, nor would I be surprised if you flipped town. Furthermore, your argument about how Slaxx's arguments are feeble is ludicrous considering how weak your own arguments have been.

also Nik, I was referring to the game we played in IRC last night as a counterexample, and I can probably reference numerous examples where as scum, I have claimed a pro-town role even without MC being thrown at me.
Essentially, I'm debating the validity of your tell.

[SFG]

Pul is v/la for a while. SFG is most likely lurking on Xylbot and Slaxx is...uh...i dunno where that guy went.

Actually, I went and took a nap for awhile because I was still feeling sick :P reading up on the two pages of posts that appeared now and will form response later.

[SFG]

I keep seeing people who are suspicious of crypto, but I have yet to see a satisfactory reason as to why they should. For that matter, Slaxx has still not addressed how he went back and switched his read from town to scum based on some of the same initial "pro-town" posts. If anyone would like to point out a few places that are scummy, preferably with quotes and such...

Also, if we're going to try and bore Sniper out of the game, we should probably draw out the days really long until he leaves so as to waste the least amount of Day waiting for him. Either that or we could all pick on him until he goes crying home to his mother.

[SFG]

Nik, I'll have to figure out what it was you wanted me to respond to that I didn't (I thought I had them all covered) when I get back...I'm going to be out-of-town for about the next 8 hours and only 11min before I have to leave now o.o;

[SFG]

I don't like Sniper or Nico's playstyle atm, but I want it to pan out a bit more so maybe I can see if 1. one of them flakes out or 2. their goals become more clear.

Active lurking.

Trying to resist early scum wagons on fat mislynch targets.

So what do you think of Slaxx, SFG? Town or scum?

still awaiting an answer about crypto from him. Leaning town atm.

SFG, are you all caught up on the game now?

ish. Every time I catch up, I fall behind again, and generally even if I have read the entire game, there are some things that won't percolate into my reads until a month or two after I read them

SFG, what do you think of this:

Slaxx is town.

It's the kind of thing that I put as a note right now, and then flesh out later. I need to make a flow chart for this game lol

[SFG]

Alllllllright. For some reason I though we had about a week more discussion time than we actually did. Going back and addressing stuff now. Hopefully my activity level will perk up again now that I've replaced out of my other game...

Starting with post 513...the only thing I like in there is Pul's case on Sniper, and as I said before, I think we can drive him out of this town (or, if the scum want to do us all a favor and kill him, its better for them to use their NK on him than on a productive player). Everything else I see here smells strongly of sheep >_>

515 - Slaxx's case against crypto.

This trio is what really bugs me. He criticizes SPS for voting without a reason, but he only explains after prompted. 7 is a totally different unrelated post, but He hopped all over SFG for pressuring a lurker. I love pressuring lurkers. -points to Nic's bandwagon.

7: Good questioning, good straightforwardness.

Crypto 9, 10, and 11 are all either agree statements or empty accusations. I know its early in the game, but please try more?

good point
17,19,22 I also agree with you there

31: Really liking his case here on SFG.

Post 37: vote without a reason, hasn't pointed fingers with a good case in forever, but has been asking a lot of people their opinions. More passive scumhunting.

6 posts is forever?

post 51 - what concerns me more about crypto here is that he said he was leaning town on me, and then voted me. Why vote someone you think is town?
56 - he again confirms that he thinks I'm townesque, yet his vote remains on me. Why?

k this post is getting long I'll post it and then start in on my next one on a new slate

[SFG]

Everything else I see here smells strongly of sheep >_>

Why? What do you specifically dislike about 513?

I think that should answer your question nicely.

[SFG]

I mean, he's doing nothing but sheeping other peoples' arguments. I thought that was obvious.

[SFG]

Doing an ISO read of my top suspects so that I can figure out where I should rest my vote right now. I will also say at the outset that I will be fine with a Nico lynch toDay unless Nico replaces out.

Max

belligerent, antitown playstyle. I can deal with, and in fact would approve of, your method of scumhunting if you could pare down to a couple sentences of quote what you seem to think linking an entire post should do. That is, if you point me to a three-paragraph post and expect me to glean something specific from the third through sixth words of the second paragraph, it is NOT going to work. If you just quote said words, I can probably figure it out.
I notice you defend Sniper in your Post 3.
I'm not sure how you can call your playstyle "aggressive" when you don't pressure anyone.
Most of your recent posts involve a lot of stalling and very little content.

Sanhora/LC

Sanhora barely posted.
LC, about 2/3 of your posts are nothing but questions. Your only votes have been on very safe sorts of targets following general suspicions. I don't see much scumhunting or intention to scumhunt at all, unless you keep it all in your mind.

Sniper

the lack of content is astounding. I don't even know.

crypto

A few decent points and a lot of fluff. I think I was biased because he was acting favorably towards me. He isn't the worst of the lot, but he is pretty bad.

I think that Max and Sniper have a chance of improving/dropping out, so I am stalling those suspicions for now and voting for my next most suspect person.

vote: LC

[SFG]

I believe that we stand to lose a hardcore lurker by lynching Nico. My problem with lurkers is that I can never tell if they are scum or not. Here's to hoping that Nico is, in fact, scum and not townie.

[SFG]

Actually, I am getting more and more of a town feel for Nico as this goes on. I just think anyone playing scum would care more. WIFOM as it is, it's making me less and less satisfied with the Nico lynch.

@LC, when did I ever say I wasn't willing to lynch Sniper? If any of the people I mentioned on that list manage to get themselves lynched today, I won't be unhappy about it. I just mentioned it specifically for Nico because Nico seems the most likely lynch of the day.

[SFG]

With all due respect, I am also a giant ball of exploding emotion and I have meta that shows that Haylen plays significantly better as scum than as town. That said, I would rather lynch Sniper than Nico and since there does seem to be a movement in that direction, I will go along with it. Remember my vote on LC, though. I know he won't be lynched today, but I think my suspicions are valid.

unvote, vote Sniper

[SFG]

I'm still getting a town read on Haylen. She's acting like I would expect townHay to act, and although I think her extensive theory posts belong in the discussion section rather than this thread, she has good points there too (plus I still have a bit of a grudge being lynched in both completed games because apparently major depression is scummy...but I won't get into that rant today).

At any rate, I expect that every single player here will have improved performance on Day 2, with the possible exceptions of crypto who may be disappearing entirely and Sniper, who gives no inclination of being interested in anything other than fucking with the rest of us and being annoying.

[SFG]

Yeah, but we can also learn something about them from who they were, thats an improvement...

[SFG]

2) Sniper is actively anti-town, while Nico is just active lurking

Well actually, imho this points to Nico being more scummy than Sniper.

Ive played quite a few games, and he fits the bill of someone who will eventually replace out. You also are ignoring the fact that I think Nico is scummy, so even with a replace out I would still want him lynched over sniper.

I am thoroughly convinced that, given another Day, we could probably get both Nico and Sniper to replace out. There are two questions that follow that: 1) Who should we lynch on Day 1 and 2) Is the time we lose analyzing these playerslots worth it?

Further reasoning for finding Nikanor scummy is that for most of the game he has been a Lurky McLurker, posting just in time to not receive a prod. Nikanor does not lurk in his town games.

I haven't seen him in #mafia lately either, which lends some credence to his absence imo. Even so, I've still seen him there more often than I've seen him here and I've made more than my fair share of pointed comments like "I see a very lonely little thread in New York that's just dying for attention..."
Didn't he say he was moving or something, though?

[SFG]

Doing a brief ISO of Nika looking for viable content.

Post #13 carries some (controversial) content.
#19 almost has something I would call content
#21 - who needs to post more content, you?
#26 has serious content to it, but a lot of joking too
#30 has content
#34 has serious content
#38 ^
#42 ^
#45 has some content
#46 ^
#47 - brownie points from me for bringing up logical fallacies
#50 ish content

conclusion: Nikanor has been posting a LOT more content than Haylen is giving her credit for. Which shakes my town read on Hay a little bit.

[SFG]

Why does everyone always accuse me of being Scummy McLurklurk? I'm not trying to lurk and I don't mean to its just that I'm busy. Am I not supposed to play when I'm busy or something or is there some rule against it? I'm sorry! I'm sorry! None of the posts I make are ever enough for anyone because you all hate me anyways...even after I replaced out of my other game so I can devote all my time and energy to this game that I don't need to spend not failing out of college

Maybe I'm just not cut out for MS, I don't know. I love playing the game but I'm so inevitably bad at it that I always get lynched all the time and everyone hates me. What am I doing wrong?

[SFG]

here and here and here and...a lot of places everyone always thinks im scummy T_T

[SFG]

yeah i dont know whats up but i feel like I'm dying and my temperature spiked to 100.8F which is really not cool...

[SFG]

Nico town you especially need to lynch Max-scum though, I seriously would reccomend quick lynching Max if Nico is town.

Why? Why does the innocence of Nico prove conclusively that Max is scum, to the point where we should pass up all the information generated by a Day to give what we hope is not a mislynch? This is starting to make me seriously doubt you, Furry.

Also one thing that I hadn't considered before that I am considering now...

Hold that thought until after I can retroactively apply it, I don't want my data getting messed up because I opened my mouth too early :P

Yeah, but he asked. Repetition makes people more likely to agree with it.

Why are you using a logical fallacy to try and sway the town?

Furry just went up a lot on my scumdar.

[SFG]

I think at this point a partner to Nico is either going to be bussing him or trying to save him

Ok, there are two possible things that can happen. 1. Nico can be lynched or 2. Nico can not be lynched. OF COURSE ONE OF THESE TWO OPTIONS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. You, good sir, are an idiot.

[SFG]

Furry's logic has 9001 flaws in it imo :/

[SFG]

I get a distinct feeling that im failing to explain my thought process well

This. I can't tell where you got your conclusions from and your most recent post doesn't add up with what you were saying before either, so I am very very confused.

[SFG]

I guess that makes Dragonfly the deciding vote here...unless somehow everyone else decides to flomp over and vote someone else, which I highly doubt.

[SFG]

Haylen, don't tell me you could possibly have expected Nico to have voted any way other than he did.

[SFG]

It figures, I walk away for an hour to spend time with my boyfriend and the entire world happens at once...

[SFG]

SPS, why are you voting?

On a second note, because the two people who were nightkilled are not the people I would have expected to be nightkilled, I will go back and look and what was going on with them. The LordChronos kill seems especially odd since he was under large suspicion of the town - I expect that it was a case of one scum group attempting to kill the other and I would like to go back and look at who suspected him.

[SFG]

Looking at LordChronos' posts and summarizing important information. All posts are ISO unless otherwise noted. Not much point in trying to analyze the two posts by Sanhora.

#1 - slightly for Ald, slightly against crypto. Gives Sniper benefit of doubt.
#2 - votes Sniper
sorta tunnels on Sniper until post 7
#7 - votes Max. Against Nico lynch.
#11 - defense against Nik
#13 - anti-Hay
#18 - concedes scumminess of Max, but votes Sniper

(breaking ISO)
Post #510 shows Nikanor's suspicions of LC despite his given defense
I acknowledge that I also found LC to be scummy

So in essence, I think LC's death makes Max, Sniper, Nikanor, and I scummier.

[SFG]

Also Max, if you would be so kind as to give me a link to the game he replaced out of?

Going to do a quick analysis of dragonfly but don't expect to find much (thats why I did LC first).

[SFG]

Starting with crypto in ISO. I'd forgotten that Dragonfly was replacing crypto, and that gives some evidence that this was also an attempted scumVscum.

#6 - votes SPS (serious?)
#16-18 - random flicker of suspicion on me that quickly goes away
#22 - anti-SPS
#30 - anti-Ald
#31 - anti-me
#37-41 - anti-Sniper
#51 - back to me. He keeps clearing me and then voting me again.
#56 - anti-SPS, pro-me

on to Dragonfly
#1 - still against SPS, also against Sniper and Nico
...and that's all.

People who would want him dead because they think he is dangerous town: Sniper, SPS
People who would want him dead because they think he is the other scum team: Max, Slaxx, (maybe Furry?)

[SFG]

To assimilate, two scum groups killed Dragonfly and LC because they thought they were either dangerous town or part of the other scum group. Since no person can be in both groups and I pointed out who would be in each group, I'm going to try and synthesize.

Both NK targets were threats to Sniper. However, since most of the town is anti-Sniper, that isn't much to go on.

If Max is scum, then he would have wanted LC dead because LC was a town threat to him, and crypto/Dragonfly dead because he thought Dragonfly was on the other scumteam.

If Nikanor is scum, he must have targeted LC because he thought that LC was scum and was trying to eliminate the opposing scum team.

If SPS is scum, he must have targeted Dragonfly because Dragonfly was a threat to him.

If Slaxx is scum, he must have targeted Dragonfly because he thought Dragonfly was on the other scumteam.

Potential scumpairs imo:
Max/Slaxx
Max/SPS
Slaxx/SPS
Sniper/Nika
Nika/Max

Does anyone have a problem with my analysis?

[SFG]

Nikanor: I analyze NK's if and only if they were surprising to me. I also highly disagree with the fact that we should ignore them, although perhaps I have been giving them a bit too much credit. Second, they are much more fruitful to analyze in games with two scum groups because each group has two goals - kill the town and kill the opposing scum - rather than genuine freedom to choose whoever they wish to kill.

Oh that reminds me, there is a possibility that I left out. I assumed when compiling the list of scumpairs that both members of a pair were interested in the kill they made. There is also the possibility that one member of the team is controlling the actions and the other is just going along for the ride.

At any rate, I've had good success in the past with analyzing nightkills both by figuring out what level of WIFOM they are on and figuring out who had the best motive for the people who died to have died. In my first game on MS, I used only the information of the nightkill to name three names, two of which turned out to be the two scum. So don't tell me that it isn't valuable information, because it is.

[SFG]

Okay, putting aside the nightkills, insomuch as I can, although I would prefer to see more people reacting to this before posting a suspicion list, I know from experience that if I actually say I am going to withhold that information until later, I will end up having to waste valuable time defusing a resultant wagon on me. So, because you guys are impatient idiots, I will indulge you now.

Max/SPS is my favored scumpair at the moment. Both had motivation behind the nightkills, but they've also both been doing some really awkward distancing. Max starts off the game with an unfounded "knowledge" that SPS is scum, and again in ISO 5 his weakest case seems to be on SPS. Nevertheless, he never votes for SPS and SPS begins the day with a completely unfounded vote against Max.
SPS is not much better, FoS's Max in ISO 15, but in 17 he is teaming with Max a little, in 19 Max is listed as the least of his scum suspects, 32 is a bit of a break to the pattern, 41 he is wheedling with Max to wagon someone, aaaand finally they both ended up being on the same wagon.

fff, this is sucking up more free time than I have available. Its a good start but gives nothing as to what pair would be opposing them...

[SFG]

Oh right, if there is a pair where the second is just sort of being dragged along for the ride, I think Haylen would be a part of it. Her recent "wait why were there two kills?" post strikes me as a noob-card type appeal, especially considering that the presence of two scum groups has been discussed strongly and referred to in the flavor, ESPECIALLY in the lynch scene at the end of the first day which any townie worth their salt should have read.

[SFG]

I would like to note that Nikanor promised scumhunting an hour and a half ago and, despite quite a bit of idle chitchat with my on IRC, has posted no such content.

[SFG]

Will people kindly remember that now we have three people who have died, all townsfolk, and that just yesterday you were all in desperate need of flip information which you now have? You might as well use it instead of saying "well the new information busts my previous theory so I'm going to continue to vote for the person I thought was suspicious even though the theory got busted."

[SFG]

If Max and SPS are a scumpair, then Nikanor is scum with either Haylen or Sniper. Reasoning for this is in my nightkill analysis and following posts.

[SFG]

SPS is not much better, FoS's Max in ISO 15, but in 17 he is teaming with Max a little, in 19 Max is listed as the least of his scum suspects, 32 is a bit of a break to the pattern, 41 he is wheedling with Max to wagon someone, aaaand finally they both ended up being on the same wagon.

I didn't mean to imply an ordering in 19; Haylen and Max were pretty much tied at that point.

If that's all you have to say against the entire body of evidence that I've just presented, I'm really disappointed in you.

[SFG]

@Max, I didn't account for your Ald case at all because it seemed to by-and-large drop off of your radar. Second, I never trust it when people say who they would or would not kill. I do, however, trust it when people say who other people would or would not kill. I disagree that I could implicate every player because I already went back and mentioned everyone implicated.

@SPS, I provided several instances of you doing a weird distance/buddy dance with Max. I would like you to explain them because they really are quite curious when taken altogether. Incidentally, as you would notice if you'd actually read my post, the reason you can't figure out what was scummy about your 32 is because I was saying that 32 was the only unscummy interaction between the two of you.

Thus far your answer to 17 is the only one i find remotely satisfactory, and the rest is "yeah, well it was a weird distance/buddy dance. So there."

[SFG]

Also the deal about linking that game was more so I could look up Sniper's meta, and maybe even a reveal if I was lucky.

[SFG]

He didn't confirm, so he never posted in that game.

Yeah, I know. Really unhelpful.

[SFG]

Really, guys? 10 players alive here and somehow in the past 16 hours there hasn't been a single post? I'm starting to regret joining this game because its so stagnant I can barely read half the players.

[SFG]

requesting content from Ald, Nikanor (you promised it yesterday and never delivered!), Haylen, Puliander (that post you made did NOT count as content), and

requesting a prod on Sniper because it has been more than 72hrs of Day since he last posted in thread

Done.

[SFG]

I've been having a nagging sense in the back of my head that Nikanor is scum. But when I try to articulate why, it comes out being some combination of "Too Townie" gone wrong and things that could apply to other people I think are town.

Go figure.

[SFG]

NK WIFOM is a waste of time. Discuss real things guys.

This is the kind of reasoning that makes me pity players on this site. NK's are a valuable source of information in the same way that posts are, just a different kind, and ignoring them's much the pity.

[SFG]

Oh fuck no, he came back...nooooooooooooo

also...with all due respect I won't support a policy lynch today because 1/3 of the town is already dead and another full day of that could put us in PD.

[SFG]

Since we don't know how the Sniper slot in the other game flipped, it could very well be that Sniper was scum in the other game and chose to play this one instead because he dislikes being scum as well.

I'm starting to despair a little bit about this game, with so few people actually contributing and so many active lurking or lurking, or just plain being the VI. Furry can you explain again why it was advantageous to keep the VI around?

[SFG]

...that sounded really sadistic, Nikanor. "I want to see you sweat, scream and bleed..."

Also yay drugs I got sick again and this is the crunch of my week anyways so blargh.

[SFG]

I'm not voting because, once again, I forgot that I have a vote I'm supposed to put somewhere.

For the moment, I am going to place my vote on Haylen in leiu of content from her. Haylen, if you want me to remove my vote from you, then you have to cough up three more reads you have, preferably your strongest ones, along with vaguely persuasive reasons for them.

Vote: Haylen

That said, I have realized that it is completely possible at the moment for us to lynch scum every remaining Day and still lose. See?

Day 2 - 2 Scum A, 2 Scum B, 6 Town
lynch Scum A
2 Townies die
Day 3 - 1 Scum A, 2 Scum B, 4 Town
lynch Scum B
2 Townies die
Day 4 - 1 Scum A, 1 Scum B, 2 Town
This is a Prisoner's Dilemma.

So I will be very cautious about my voting-to-lynch because I am treating this as a pseudo-lylo situation because we have to lynch the exactly correct people to win, assuming no xkills at Night. Voting-to-pressure is still legit, though.

[SFG]

k didnt have time to read ALL the new posts but two new things from my end

unvote, vote Ald

conditions for unvote are identical to Haylen's

I believe Furry is town, gut and good vibes

[SFG]

Alright, a quick bit about gut votes for the benefit of Slaxx.

Frequently while playing mafia, my gut figures out something is wrong. Then about two weeks later my brain catches up and provides me the logical explanation. Unfortunately I don't always have two weeks' leisure to ponder why I have a gut read on someone. Sometimes it takes me longer than that to figure it out. The point is, gut and instinct can and will point you in the right direction most of the time, and the place logic has is in convincing other people of your read.

This is almost as stupid as ignoring flips, nightkills, and bandwagons ending in lynch for potential clues.

[SFG]

also I've apparently been misinformed as to the definition of "prisoner's dilemma" and I can link you to a game where I was town and forgot that I had a vote. If you so wish.

[SFG]

Okay, back to game...sorry for my unexpected absence I really have wayyyy too much to do this semester.

Thank you, Ald, that is sufficient content for the moment. I want to go back and do one more type of NK analysis before I figure out where I want to place my vote. Specifically, I am going to analyze the people who are still alive. I'd rather analyze to death that lynch wrong today.

Ald

First thing I noticed, you've FoS'd and/or voted:
Haylen
horrordude0215 (Furry)
Max
Sniper
Me
Slaxx
and Puli
So basically you've FoS'd every living person except for SPS and Nikanor, and no dead person. This is making me ve-ry uneasy about you. Also at the end of Day 1 you wuzzled around carefully not making cases on anyone but being "unhappy" with prime lynch targets. I am not surprised that you are still alive toDay.

Furry

The first thing I think of when I think Furry is "Sniper is town don't lynch him."
Firm belief that Max and crypto are scum. Attempted wagoning on Max. I agree with Max's assessment that if he was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence, he would have killed Furry. The conclusion I draw here is that if Max is scum, Furry is probably his partner. I'm almost convinced that Max is town with a lynch target painted on his ass, which is why he is alive right now.
Furry, what do you have to say about the fact that despite being completely wrong about Nico and crypto, you are still pushing Max?

Haylen

I'm going to guess the reason Haylen is alive is because she has a mislynch target painted on her ass for active lurking.
Thinks that Max, Nico, Sniper, and SPS are scummy, and Nikanor is slightly scummy. That's another reason to leave her alive - so she can take part of mislynches on Max and Sniper.

Max

I'm inclined to believe that Max is town with a mislynch target on his ass. I think his first and extremely controversial post was actually intended to do two things, 1. get the town out of RVS asap (pro-town) and 2. put pressure on four people (also pro-town).
He votes Ald before bowing to the inevitability of Nico/Sniper wagon, but no one is listening to him so he poses no threat.

Nikanor

major backer of the Nico wagon
Additionally suspicious of LC, Haylen, and Sniper
Somehow on Day 2, Max jumps onto his radar from having been mentioned only offhandedly as being scummy on Day 1. Why did you switch from pushing Haylen to pushing Max on Day 2 right as the wagon was forming on Max?

Puli

strongest suspicion is against Sniper
leaning scum on Max and crypto, generally not taking strong stances on anyone but Sniper.
Shown to be easily swayed with the Nico wagon (ISO 46)
Therefore can be generally expected to push for a lynch on Sniper and, failing that, join the wagon on Max.

Me

I was actually surprised that I wasn't nightkilled because a very large number of people have me down as being one of their towniest reads, barring themselves. The only reason I can think that I would have survived is if either 1. scum was aiming for opposing scum or 2. I was chasing the wrong people yesterday.
Acknowledged suspicion of Max and Nico, but willing to give them another Day.
My list of people I was willing to lynch: Max, LC, Nico, Sniper, crypto
Therefore I could have been probably convinced to (mis)lynch Max today (so far as scum knew).

Sniper

vote to replace him.

Most people looking at Sniper would think 1. fat mislynch target 2. easily swayed vote therefore highly useful to scum.

SPS

Max is "#2 suspect"
Also suspicious of Haylen and it's hard for me to glean what his #1 suspect was?
Jumps onto Max at the start of Day 2 and I still haven't seen much justification.

New list of scum suspects: Ald, Furry, Nikanor, SPS
Actually, Ald, you lucky bastard, I was trying to decide whether it would be more productive to vote for you or for Nikanor today and realized I was already voting you. So you get to keep my vote

[SFG]

Furry the "turnaround" is an exercise that I do during lylo (and I already stated that I considered this to be lylo) to clear my biases and start off completely new. If you look at the other game in which I survived to lylo, I ended up poised to (correctly) vote when I died, after having realized that the person I had been suspicious of for most of the game was actually town. I am becoming increasingly more convinced that my first set of reads is always bs and my second set of reads, after clearing, is always dead-on (this trend was demonstrated in my other game here as well, in which I pegged the scumpair as a backup theory to the person I'd been tunnelling on all game).

So really the only question I have left is, who is scum with who? Right now I'm guessing Furry-Ald and Nikanor-SPS but I could very easily be wrong.

[SFG]

requesting prod for Slaxx. A little less than 72hrs but I may not be around when his time comes up.

[SFG]

Furry if it makes you feel any better, you are last of the scum reads I would like to lynch because my reads are significantly stronger on Ald and Nik, followed by SPS, followed by you

[SFG]

What is making you uneasy exactly? That he hasn't FoSed/voted dead people?

The fact that he threw mostly ungrounded suspicion at almost everyone, and the few people he left out died. So basically he had "prior support" to lynch any one of the living people today, depending on which way the wind blows.

I really think you're going too far in your NK analysis here. It is hard to know what the scum are thinking. Maybe the scum group is Max+Townie-looking person and they decided they'd rather try to nail an opposing scumbag, thereby distracting the town from Max and helping Townie-looking person survive. Determining who a scum group would kill is a highly non-trivial matter.

Actually if you'll notice, I said "If Max was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence" not "because Max would be trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence." Meaning I did consider the other possibility.

Furthermore, steady, backwards-looking analysis is exactly the kind of scumhunting that I do at lylo because I don't want to make a mistake and because it works. And until someone can prove to me that this scumhunting of mine DOESN'T work, since thus far every single time I've done this kind I have tagged every remaining scum and only scum (100% accuracy), I'm gonna stick with it. kthnxbai.

Or 3. they did not want to kill the same person as the other scum group or 4. they knew that you tended to do NK analysis, so kept you alive so that you would implicate the wrong person. I can probably think of more possible reasons if I saw any reason to. You're being a bit short-sighted here.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

If I may, the people I expected to possibly die last night were myself, Puli, or Nikanor if scum was trying to target town and Sniper, Max, or crypto if scum was trying to target scum, in that order.

Also suspicious of Haylen and it's hard for me to glean what his #1 suspect was?

Nicodemus!

Ah, the guy who flipped town. Got it.

Geez, don't you guys ever get shaken up when you realize your reads have been wrong? :/

[SFG]

Big deal. Everyone commits scum tells, even townies. If not, then scum tells would be 100% accurate, which they are generally not.

I just ISOed him and I really think you're overstating the importance of his FoSes.

Y'know your arguments look more convincing if the pair of you don't try to make two different cover-ups at the same time :P

So, is that list in order? Because, if so, you should have been deciding between me and Furry, not me and Nikanor.

I clarified that already.

Ungrounded? That's just slander. When have any of my statements been ungrounded?

You FoS'd the entire world for not posting enough on the first day of the first Day, because OBVIOUSLY if everyone hasn't racked up 4 posts by the end of the first day they are scum. You FoS'd Puli for being friendly because obviously all townies are mean and nasty because that helps them find scum? Voting Sniper at least actually made sense. You FoS'd me for my meta. You FoS'd Slaxx for reaction-testing, a form of scum hunting. Cus scumhunting is so antitown. Dumping suspicion on Nico I guess also made sense although I was never a fan of the Nico wagon.

And you're trying to tell me that THAT was all "good scumhunting"? Switching your suspicions around like hot potatoes, your only two reasonable cases from yesterday are basically "yeah Sniper or Nico should die because of what everyone else said" and you expect me to look at you and NOT see scum?

[SFG]

I noticed. I presented that scenario to illustrate my point that it is hard to figure out what the scum are thinking and thus, that you were going too far in concluding that Maxscum implied a FurryMax pairing.

And I stated why I thought the alternate scenario was improbable.

I'll give you an example of it failing in Himalayan Mafia.

Actually if you'll look, I said "of mine" not "of whoever's." And it does take some common sense to figure out what level of WIFOM the scum was operating on when they made the NK, which is I suppose why NK analysis is so unpopular around here.

I'm not saying they're probable, but they're definitely possible.

I need to find a confluence somewhere where all the hints I've gathered come together. This isn't a final list btw, in case you were wondering.

[SFG]

Did you? I can't find it.

I don't honestly believe that any player here does that much homework, and even Nikanor only knows my IRC meta, which does NOT involve NK analysis. As for 3, I again doubt that scum would consider that at this point in the game. They are floundering with the same knowledge of the other scum group that the town has.

It didn't fail because of WIFOM considerations, it failed because the scum had a very different view of the game than I did, which is a trap anyone can fall for. I do believe in NK analysis, I just think you're overestimating its usefulness, probably because it's worked so well for you in the past.

If I read your example correctly, you analyzed the NK on the grounds that someone you weren't expecting to die died, and you assumed that was because his arguments were on-track because scum was the kind of person who would kill off threats to them, but what actually happened is scum was the kind of person to kill off experienced players regardless of whatever threat they may have posed. Therefore you analyzed the kill one level of WIFOM higher than it was actually at. Does this make sense?

[SFG]

oh whoops, forgot to address this in my previous post.

[quote="SPS]
I think it becomes much clearer. The way I read his posts is that he FoSes liberally. You almost seem to be interpreting them as weak votes. [/quote]
I have never seen a FoS used as anything other than either a warning that a vote may be soon incoming or a secondary vote target. Are you suggesting that there is any other reason to FoS?

[SFG]

I've already said lurking is a scum tell.

At the time

I'd say all of those 4 people fit the bill. I don't think I need to explain Sniper and Haylen's presence on that list. horrordude0215 and Max simply hadn't racked up many posts at the time.

And I'm telling you that was like...what, 27 hours after Day started? Oh noes, only posted three times within 27 hours thats like *gasp* ONLY ONE POST EVERY 9 HOURS how incredibly scummy.

If you disagree with my Pulindar FoS then go back and read that post and tell me with a straight internet face that Pulindar wasn't being disturbingly friendly.

I do believe I just did that in my last post. I honestly don't see anything scummy there and I don't think anyone but you did either.

And by the way, if you think that a FoS is a warning that I might someone soon, then I can't imagine what you thought of this post. Did you think I was a quintuple voter?

No, I think you were leaving your options open for whichever vote was most convenient for you to take.

This is still a valid point against you SFG. I haven't followed up on it since you've been pro-Town otherwise. Your defense was basically a meta defense -- I don't mind that, but you a) pointed out that you often look scummy, so me finding you scummy shouldn't surprise you and b) you said that early on "do not let yourself be lynched" was a priority for you, which is a scum's way of thinking.

The point is that I firmly believe that one of the most disrespectful things I can do to my town is to make them waste a lynch on me. Nico is in absolute disgrace for breaking that rule right now. At any rate, if you try and tell me that as town, my policy should be to get myself lynched, I am going to smack you with a giant salmon. Therefore I still don't see what it scummy about me stating this.

No, I FoSed him for what I considered to be a hasty L-1 vote that looked like bandwagoning to me.

Which he said was reaction testing. Which is townie. Also if you think about it for perhaps three seconds, any player that was stupid enough to hammer that would get instalynched the next day (barring a scum flip), meaning that it also could have easily been a scumtrap which is ALSO townie.

And yes, I did notice that you stopped FoS'ing after you'd FoS'd everyone once or twice. Not that it makes that any better.

[SFG]

wtb activity

[SFG]

That was about you, we were talking about Max.

You lost me.

There was no WIFOM involved. The scumbag never took into account Fuldu's suspicion of cpe. That's the fundamental point, I was thinking "Ok, Fuldu's very suspicious of cpe, who would want to kill him?" whereas the scum was thinking "hey, I'm doing pretty well, let's kill off experienced players who might catch me later, let's say Fuldu".

Thats exactly what I just said. Because you attributed one more level of WIFOM than was present, you got it wrong. There was no intended WIFOM, but you used one level of WIFOM in your analysis. Which is why you were wrong.

[SFG]

SFG, I'm a little worried about two posts of yours. During my back and forth with Haylen (I think I've had several now) you kind of come to her defense a little too strongly for my comfort.

??? I haven't been defending Haylen at all, I've just been looking for scum and I found four people I think are likely to be scum and Haylen wasn't one of them. I really don't see where this over-the-top defense accusation is coming from.

[SFG]

I would like everyone here to do a little mental exercise. Pretend that we lynched Max and he flipped town. Who would you think the scum were? How much detail could you give about the two separate scum teams?

This is not a defense of Max, this is an exercise in antitunnelling

[SFG]

Slaxx, it's clear to YOU why Haylen is scum. It isn't clear to me, so why don't you try and convince me?

SPS the reason that we need to know who the scum are teamed with is because, if you were bothering to look, even if we lynch scum for the next two days we still end up having 1/3 chance of winning in prisoner's dilemma unless either 1. the scum xkill or 2. we lynch the same scum team twice. Since only the second of these two is something the town can affect, I would suggest paying strict attention to it.

NEEDS MORE POSTING FROM PEOPLE OTHER THAN SLAXX AND SPS! THAT MEANS ALL OF YOU BUT HAYLEN, WHO IS NOW MODDING!

[SFG]

Also SPS, Max's scum list he said was the same as mine and does include you, so I'm not quite sure why you're saying it doesn't now...and Max I'm still not sold on you being town either so you're going to have to convince me by your actions that you are.

[SFG]

I will form a super case later. As of now, though, I think the best strategy would be to lynch one off of each team. I know this isnt under our control, but I dont want a full team down before 1 on each goes.

I don't think you quite understand. If we lynch one off of each team, the only way we can possibly win is if both scum target each other the next Day. Meaning that each team will have 1/3 chance of winning

ToDay: 2 Scum A, 2 Scum B, 6 Townies
lynch Scum A today, no xkill means
Tomorrow: 1 Scum A, 2 Scum B, 4 Townies
lynch scum B tomorrow, as you suggest, no xkill means
Day 4: 1 Scum A, 1 Scum B, 2 Townies
if you lynch Scum A that Day, Scum B wins and vice versa. If you no lynch and either townie is nightkilled, then the scum either tie (both townies died) or the scum who didn't get killed wins. If we lynch a townie, then the only way the town can win is if the scum xkill.

Whereas!
assume that today we lynch scum A and there is no xkill
Tomorrow we lynch the other scum A and Scum B kills a townie
Day 4: 2 Scum B, 3 Townies - lylo of a typical game.

So I guess the real question is, do you want to gamble on the scum crosskilling or do you want to keep everything in the hands of the town?

[SFG]

*shrug* Haylen and Sniper still count. Also, in addition to a low post count, horrordude0215 and Max weren't posting much content either (especially horrordude).

This probably isn't a point worth pursuing at this point.

Last time I checked buddying is a scum tell.

Last time I checked, being nice was not the same thing as buddying. Would you rather everyone was always flaming each other or would you use that to make a blanket attack about distancing?

You can think that if you like. There's no reason to take your explanation over mine, though.

My theory is hardly out of line with your current behavior and furthermore exposes your scumminess, so if you want to let your scumminess stand in the open I suppose that's fine with me.

Not saying that getting yourself lynched is at all pro-Town, but not getting lynched should never take precedence over scum hunting.

I believe I explained this before but since you didn't get it then either, I can try again. Because my scumhunting is notoriously weak that early in the game and also tends to lead to mega-tunnelling that is highly detrimental to the town, I would say that me trying to scumhunt just then would be nearly antitown. Therefore ensuring that I don't waste a lynch, a protown sort of goal, WILL take place over the nearly antitown behavior of scumhunting until such a time as scumhunting becomes protown.
If you have any trouble with my current level of scumhunting, go ahead and try to put it forward. I'll gladly turn up the pressure cooker even if I'm one of a scant handful even bothering to hunt.

Except that Slaxx revealed that it was reaction testing after I FoS'd him.

Point taken.

[SFG]

The argument between me and SPS is mostly on theory grounds. The rest of the argument is over my read of Alduskell, which in retrospect, why did SPS not once but a couple times step in for Ald to argue? A bit scummy, but reflects equally badly on both.

[SFG]

Sniper, you DO realized that Haylen as a mod was verified by a nonplayer authority, right?

Haylen can you PLEASE replace the troll? he's doing his darndest to ruin the town.

As a mod I'm not allowed to take sides with any faction scum or town, that would be bias. ~ Hayl

[SFG]

Dropping by briefly to remind you that today is Wednesday, which means that I barely have time to breathe, let alone make mafia posts. xP Back to hw for me since this is the only time I have to do it.

[SFG]

Sniper, Furry is not a true Cop. He is what is called a "three-shot" cop and he already used all three of his investigations and posted them, which means that he is now a Townie.
The true Cops are myself and Nikanor as you would know if you'd read the first page or two of the thread.

[SFG]

My motivation to post is being leeched away every time I come here and notice that nearly 50% of the players have not posted content for the past several days. I'm highly tempted to switch my vote over to Nikanor as being both my other primary scum suspect and lurking her butt off.

About the Sniper wagon, Furry, I think that Sniper is being a huge burden to the town and we didn't have the time to waste waiting for him to replace out. He still hasn't replaced out and until then is basically churning out noob/troll reads and honestly, I'm on the verge of trying to take him to some higher authority because if he is town I believe he has already jeopardized our chances of winning (even moreso than the setup has).

And Max, I have no trouble with you finding a temporary replacement but that's really up to

the mod

more than us players.

Speaking of which, only SPS thus far has answered my question from my little mental exercise so I am going to ask it again.

Suppose that we have lynched Max and he flipped town. Who do you now think is scum? If you are not on the Max wagon, insert the name of the person you are currently voting for instead.

[SFG]

We've been over the fact that its obvious both factions were aiming for partners.

Is it? I argued exactly the opposite and gave my reasoning as to why the factions would be aiming for threatening townies already. I guess you just weren't paying attention.

Going to put my foot in my mouth before i go off on an angry rampage on everyone who just posted. I'm running on like 12 hours of sleep in the past four nights and about to kill someone...in real life.

[SFG]

unvote, vote Nikanor

will be back after food. Puli, I believe you were complaining that my play on Day 2 is not as much better than my play on Day 1 as I made it out to be. That is because this game is completely sapping my motivation to post in it. That said probably it will help as soon as I get over my fear of authorities long enough to report Sniper to mith.

brb foooooooood.... *w,*

[SFG]

So far, rereading very carefully, I think two out of Puli, Nik, and Haylen are a scumpair. Some of the feeling is gut, but I think I made some okay connections there.

Puli/Haylen for the subtle distancing, Nik/Haylen for the illogical transition vote from Haylen to Nic, or slightly less likely Nik/Puli for the post above. I think, in retrospect, her defense of Sniper might not have been a huge deal.

I don't see much as far as the second scum team, but Al looks like a good candidate at this point in the game along with one of Max or SPS.

You didn't mention Ald at all in your post here. Why do you think he is scummy?

On a side note. I'm willing for an Ald lynch if people feel that they'd rather see that than Furry. (I'd also go for SPS, but you know, he's not my first 2)

Would you be willing for a Nikanor lynch? That seems as likely or more than an Ald lynch to happen.

Puli, about your long rant post, I think that you're being seriously impaired by your tunnelling on Sniper. I've reported him to mith for trolling and I can only hope that something comes of that. However, at this point we really really want to lynch scum and people aren't going to be willing to policy-lynch Sniper today, so you NEED to find another scum and get on their lynch, and you NEED to do that before the deadline hits.

LC nor Dragonfly (Especially Dragonfly)had very good reads on anybody and quite frankly weren't a threat.

And just how do you know that their reads weren't accurate? Both of them had at least one strong scum read on people who we still think of as scummy.

I think the best thing the town can do atm is consolidate votes on either Nikanor or Ald.

Also, Sniper, I think you should vote for Nikanor because I investigated him with my polygraph machine last night and found out that he is lying.

[SFG]

I think the best thing the town can do is lynch Max.

Yeah, I know you don't want to lynch your scumbuddy and you don't want to tell us which of those two is your buddy either.

Lies! Don't trust her, Sniper. Keep voting for Max.

Sniper already knows that I am pro-town, why are you trying to tell him that I'm not?

[SFG]

AAAAAARRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH...

Every time I come back to this thread after patiently waiting several hours for people to show up and give me something to post about, only to find that there are exactly 0 new posts, my MS spirit dies a little.

[SFG]

I reported Sniper to mith and the response was along the lines of "he isn't enough of a problem to be forcibly replaced out yet."

That said, I've had small suspicions of Nik since Day 1, although I don't remember if I actually mentioned them at the time or if I was trying to give her rope to hang herself with. I've certainly argued my point on Nikanor rather a lot today.

[SFG]

He is town mostly because of the collective approach to him from the town. Almost everyone is happy to lynch him, but keeps putting him off or saying "scum with X". These are common approaches to scum who have identified someone who they are going to be able to mislynch, but can manipulate for the time being so they are not willing to get rid of. I guarentee you that most of the scum if not all are in the "scummy but lets lynch X" boat, and would hazard a guess that from the D1 wagon there are more that were voting Nico then sniper for this very reason.

Sooo....um...does that mean that I'm scum? You deviate from this pattern as well. This mentality from you seems to completely fail to account for the fact that 1. there were people (myself included) DRIVING a wagon of him yesterday when you still firmly believed he was town and 2. there are people...a MAJORITY of people, even...putting off lynching him today who are town. Because today is pseudo-lylo and we don't want to make a mistake.

[SFG]

Dammit can we just lynch the fucking scum already instead of waffling and generally being idiots? I hate you all.

[SFG]

k, I am temporarily homeless and if it starts to interfere with my ability to play too much more, I may need to replace out. :/

[SFG]

Max and Sniper are innocent, imo. Lynching an innocent today = town lose. I will not help this town lose.

Hopefully a resolution on the housing crisis within a couple days :/

[SFG]

hi Deathnote, you need to vote correctly ASAP. No pressure or anything. Welcome to the game.

[SFG]

Deathnote: it is a joke because this is an open game with no PR's. The deadline, as Ald said, is today, and we're at pseudo-lylo. Right now we are sitting on a lynch of Max, Sniper, or Nikanor, so pay most attention to those three for now.

[SFG]

Okay, I will clarify this.
1. I made that post while running out the door. This explains why 2. I exaggerated my standpoint more than a little bit. I am not nearly sure enough that Sniper is scum and I agree with him being a fat mislynch target of the type that I mentioned trying to avoid on Day 1 enough that I am not going to risk a lynch on him. Max, I am fairly sure, is innocent and have explained my reasoning. Nikanor, on the other hand, I am almost positive is scum and has done nothing to convince me otherwise and has, indeed, lurked his ass off for the decisive part of today. Just look at his most recent 5 posts.

Can we please agree on someone to lynch?
Slaxx, Haylen, I would really like to see those blurbs you've promised.

dated Mar 19, 2010 10:35 am

Uhm. Bump?

dated Mar 20, 2010 3:47 am

I'm such a slacker. I need to catch up on recent events.

dated Mar 22, 2010 11:25 pm (nearly 2 full days later)

Sorry for my absence!

Somehow on Day 2, Max jumps onto his radar from having been mentioned only offhandedly as being scummy on Day 1. Why did you switch from pushing Haylen to pushing Max on Day 2 right as the wagon was forming on Max?

I said why Max is scummy.
Part of the reason for why I'm not voting Haylen is, ashamedly, NK analysis. I would have expected myself or someone else who was suspicious of Haylen to die last night if Haylen were scum.

The whole way you get information is by players not agreeing. Not by players agreeing.

But if everyone agrees with who I want to lynch, we would always lynch scum (Nicodemus? Who's he?)

Also if we are talking theory, if we lynch scum, other scum should be taking a shot at their partner. It would eliminate all night threats to the scum.

Directing the scumkills is scummy.

I'm going to make myself a sandwich.

dated Mar 26, 2010 1:03 am (about 3 days later)

Even this last post's semi-content is basically NK analysis (actual stuffs) + sarcastic appeal to experience? + mudflinging. I'm not impressed. And I might add, its also been nearly 5 MORE days since his most recent post.

[SFG]

geez i can be half afk and still make up 1/4 of the posts being made in this topic.

PEOPLE GET YER BUTTS IN HERE! ON THE DOUBLE! MOVE!

MOVE!

[SFG]

How does this make Max the scum when I've been the driving force behind the Nik lynch?

[SFG]

Probably because he is scum and he doesn't like it when you point it out.

[SFG]

Okay this is the stupidest, most evil....I am really pissed off. Because my college internet decided that it doesn't like my laptop and wont let me connect to MS, chat, im, facebook, skype, WoW, or ANYTHING that I would have really loved to be doing now that I FINALLY FUCKING HAVE TIME OFF and the tech support wont do anything to help because, like me, they are now all on break. Except that if I want to do anything internet I have to walk halfway across campus, completely ignoring the 101.5F fever, and even then I can't play WoW which is the one thing I really really really really REALLY wanted to do.

Long story short, unless I manage somehow to kick the tech team's asses I'm not only going to be 90% internet free, but also have about the cozy disposition of a starving lioness with cubs. If any one of you DARES accuse me of lurking for this I will personally rip their entrails out, stuff them with acid, and then put them back in and cauterize the wound. HAVE I MADE MYSELF CLEAR?

[SFG]

Posting from iPhone. Should get Internet back tomorrow unless tech services are scags. Suspected SPS-Nik pair since yesterday but since town now can freely choose which scum to kill tonight due to either doublekill (unlikely) or nokill/failure to kill, would prefer to lynch Arkon today. Somewhat confused by nighkills or lack thereof; strongly suspect one of the Max wagon or two is Arkon. Not sure what to make of nokill, especially considering our VI may have forgotten? Need to reevaluate everyone based on recent deaths and cannot do without tabs therefore fixed Internet for computer

Is Sniper up for prod? Have not seen recently. Very good explanation for lack of kill unless VT morphEd into Doc magically.

Signing off now before I accident paste private letter to bf and have to delete it again x.x

[SFG]

Lynching either scum group will put us at mylo or lylo. It just means e can choose freely of the remaining 3 scum to lynch today.

Does anyone else have thoughts on the just one kill? I'm a little insulted that I was spot on about both Max and Nik and yet I'm still not threat enough to be killed I've never had that honor before on this site and I was hoping I'd actually earned it T.T but I guess not, or at least not yet.
*sad*

[SFG]

Oh also noted that Puli was on neitherwagon. I really do think all three scum are on Max's wagon. Need to check and see how that fits my previous concepttion.

Puli, why were you not on a wagon yesterday?

[SFG]

The whole point of the lynch Arkon vs. lynch Rebel is that because of the lack of nightkill we can now freely lynch either but must always lynch scum. So we aren't fkd if we lynch the wrong kind of scum.

Someone, can't check who right now, said that Max wasn't killed for being a threat. Personally, I agree, but I want your reasoning.

Also when it comes down to which scum we lynch, I'd prefer we kill Arkon since knowing one of a pair is a great aid to finding the other and as well, we don't know if the other guy will forget to kill again I can keep around a scum that doesn't kill in favor of one who does any day.

[SFG]

Two things @Furry

1. I explained the logic of going for scum B today already. Regardless of which scum we lynch today, we are at mylo or lylo. I doubt we will se a xkill at all in this game but we have better odds overall if we lynch B today.

2. If you don't like my explanation of the nk, I would love to hear what you propose. I don't think these so easily in a game with both mylo/lylo and previous nk analysis and it's still possible the Arkons chose not to kill to try and frame Sniper th VI. I don't yet feel confident that I have A pinned down but since we now are free to lynch B this is in many ways preferable. I have not yet determined which lvl of WIFOM the kill/nokill were on. At either rate the extra townie is a gift we may not afford to loose.

It's easy to ramble whEn you only see three lines of your post at a time. I agree Puli is suspicious but I think I can also find scum on Macwagon, given time.

Since I am right about Nico, Max, and Nika so far, maybe you trust my read now instead of bullying your incorrect reads?

[SFG]

Furry, night ended all of 5 minutes early. That is hardly enough time to care about.

Also I think I brought up the possibility of a nokill from the Arkons to frame Sniper.

I am starting to wonder about Furryscum, though. We will see when the tech bastards fix my smurfing Internet already WTF it been 5 SMURFING DAYS and I'm a hopeless addict I hate everyone. Sorry for lack of thoughtful content, will fix... Prolly a couple of hours after I get Internet back (1 hr to play WoW and 2 to make a well thought out post).

[SFG]

Yes, except that's part of WHY I want to lynch an Arkon

[SFG]

stealing 30min for a quick post in the local computer lab.

My first thought was both scum killed Max. He was pretty obviously not Nico partner, and it works as a decent frame job against me and SPS. I never considered someone missed an action untill it was brought up. (etc)

I would like to hear your theory, then, as to why both groups would be targeting him? Feel free to post any and every explanation you can think of for the night kills because ONE theory is bound to be correct.

Also I thiiiink that I can attribute the LC kill to Nikanor and pal now for two reasons: 1. I can probably Mafia Group A kills the first person listed and B kills the second (more convenient for the mod that way) and 2. Nikanor was suspicious of LC on Day 1. This also shows that Nik was the leader of his group imo, meaning that whoever is the other member is probably greener and/or more submissive than Nik.

Im not just going to give up all my reads because I have been wrong.

Okay, I'm not going to suggest that you give up on all of your reads but I *would* like you to try and shake free of any biases that may have crept in and view each member of this town afresh. I think it would do you a lot of good both in my eyes and in helping the town.

[SFG]

Mod: requesting prod on Sniper

[SFG]

HECK YEA ABOUT FRIGGEN TIME YOU STUPID TECH SUPPORT PEOPLE! I AM FREEEEEEEEEEEE!

...except for the 5 tons of hw and the fact that its like...the worst day of the week...

BUT OTHER THAN THAT, I HAS MY INTERNETZ BAAAAAACK! *happy rejoicing*

[SFG]

k i really should be working on my annotated bib thats due in an hour and a half but i needed a break so.

Right, thoughts about Furry being scum. He's been wrong about every. single. read. the entire. game. I'm not trying to make a Burden of Inproficiency here but with all of the tooting of his own horn about how awesome a scumhunter he is, I expected something other than 100% incorrect from him. 100% incorrect is the kind of thing that scum runs up, not town, because they already KNOW they're incorrect. That's the whole point. Not only that, he seems to be like "so I was wrong about that guy, that guy, and the other guy. Why don't we go lynch the next guy on my list of scummy people anyways without reconsidering at all!" which is to me extremely scummy. Right now its balancing on the verge between my initial gut read of him as town and everything he's done that makes him scummy but I am not at all confident about him.

[SFG]

maybe. I will admit that this is the first forum mafia game I have ever played with multiple scumgroups, and so I am still learning how to deal with that.

[SFG]

Okay, since Puli keeps doing this one thing and beating it over the head, that I put in kind-of as a joke and kind-of because I was feeling grumpy, I'm going to call him out on it.

Just because someone has been wrong thus far does NOT mean that they are wrong currently. Puli, this seems to have become your main complaint against Furry and honestly the only thing I was really having trouble with Furry for that was that he never went back and reevaluated his views to my knowledge after being proven wrong. YOU seem to be using it as a "we should completely ignore Furry because he's just a pile of wrong."

Taking a closer look at Puli in ISO for Day 2.

sifting through, I notice that he had problems with posting content before...
he seems to be trying to apply mainstream, cookie-cutter scumhunting to Sniper, who is anything but a cookie, while the rest of us have moved to a more fluid way of watching Sniper.
Post 44 seems to still be in action right now => "if Sniper is scum, Nika is his partner"
Post 55, specifically derails my attempt to utilize Sniper despite town read on me? Why did you do that
Also does not de-tunnel even though 1. tunneling is anti-town and 2. he was aware that he was tunneling, until I asked him to and even then does not contribute to a lynch on pseudo-lylo.
Post 58 - you thought Nik was scummy by conjecture in Post 44 and have not revised your opinion since, however now both Nik and Max are unlikely to be scum? Also, your resistance to voting a major wagon flies in the face of what you said Day 1 about understanding the need for a lynch every Day.
Post 66 - well now that Nika is PROVEN scum, you go back to your old argument that Nika and Sniper are on the same team. You only conveniently abandoned that theory when Nika was a lynch target...
Post 69 gets you some town points for correcting me from being wrong

Puli can I get a consolidated list of all of your reads with abbreviated reasons for them? Thanks.

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I'm getting a kind of sour feeling about a Furry/Slaxx pair on Scum B. But my reasoning is a little shallow and based on both the assumption that Scum B did send in a kill on Max last night and the resulting pair of night-kills and potential motivations.

Not going to put out my evidence just yet, want to amass a pile of it into Suspect List 2.0-2.2 and make sure I'm not biased before I put it forth.

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Opinion on Deathnote: Deathnote is a townie with a mislynch target on his ass. Scum are working hard to try and push him to be lynched. I am not about to follow them, although I can probably trace them...just like I did with Nikanor and the Max wagon yesterDay kinda stupid of scum to try the same tactic twice in one game, even in different scum groups, when I busted it the first time.

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Stay strong, Puli! don't give in to the scum, that is what they want!

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Slaxx you're going to have to wait a bit, maybe even longer than the end of the weekend, because what happened was I did my first hour of what normally takes 12 hours of analysis and you and Furry came up dirty together. For hour 1/12. I'm putting it out there as a warning/reference point pending hours 2-12. Does that make sense?

...I mean come on, look at how much time it took me to pick out NIK from all the junk yesterday, and you saw me post like four different kinds of analysis...and that was just what I decided to show you....

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okay going to put this out there again, after the next set of analysis, Furry is indicted more strongly and firmly than Slaxx is. Even if we do end up with a Slaxx/Furry conclusion here, the person of the pair I would prefer to lynch is Furry, who is probably also slightly more powerful of the two.

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Hm, to update, I want to apologize to Ald for suspecting him yesterday. Ald is town. Furthermore, if Puli were scum with Nik, he would have NK'd Sniper ages ago, because he would have either thought Sniper was on the opposite scum team or just found Sniper intolorable to play with and needing elimination. Puli is town. Also, I'm not sure whether Puli or Nik would have won out on the first night argument of nightkill, but by the deaths its obvious that Nik was the one who convinced his partner or perhaps acted entirely by himself on N1.

Furry is in deeeeeeep shit. Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep shit. He had two motivations to kill Max: 1. he thought Max was scum 2. he was Max's prime suspect. That alone, I could put down to WIFOM with the kills, but Furry also had reason to kill crypto, because he thought crypto was scum, and furthermore nearly the entire town agreed that scum should be focusing on the xkills and I think even moreso that is the case because I am still alive, who have been lauded by pretty much the entire town for both my towniness and my proficiency at finding scum. It's a crazy scum pair who tries to WIFOM right now and honestly if they did, they've both half-jinxed themselves and if they pull a victory, they deserve to win.

But going beyond both nightkills, again who was it who chose, pulled, wheedled, and rallied a D1 wagon from the deadweight that has been savaging the town, and frequently become a grave liability for us - not to mention the fact that if Sniper is both town and survives until lylo, the town is DOOMED because he will just vote someone without thinking and the quickhammer will end everything there - to a townie who had been demotivated and could just as easily have been remotivated a day later? Oh yeah that's right, it was FURRY. How has he gotten away with this for so long? Finally, he has been frequently using fallacious arguments and passing them off as "town meta as well as scum." Ain't that just the cherry on top?

vote: Furry

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Furry, Sniper being town or not doesn't matter. Nico had a chance to shape up and said as much. Sniper's only "chance" was to either flake out and deny us of however-long of reads before doing so. Instead, he is in here and a liability to town, as well as an imminent danger for a town that is almost inevitably in lylo (a fact you seem to continuously deny despite the fact that I have spelled it out for you and everyone else repeatedly, as have SPS, Nikanor, and Slaxx.) I would LOVE for you to explain the logic behind leaving someone alive who puts the town in mortal peril.

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For cross kills, scum actually want to avoid them unless it will finish off the other team, or they are going to be crippled if they miss one.

Yes, but my dear you fulfill BOTH of these criteria. 1. If the Arkons killed a Rebel, the Rebels are eliminated and this supposedly becomes a 2:5 mountainous - more than enough odds for Arkons to pull a win. 2. If the Arkons miss a kill, it gives the town the freedom to lynch Arkon instead of lynch Rebel because it halves the rate at which we lose townies. I very carefully detailed this yesterDay and I know several people read it - Nikanor corrected my thoughts about Prisoner's Dilemma, several people switched from freelynch-thinking to pseudo-lylo-thinking, and I honestly can't believe that you didn't notice. Your argument here is just plain ridiculous.

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No, Furry, I do not think you are scum with Nikanor. I think Sniper is scum with Nik and you are scum with either SPS or Slaxx, leaning Slaxx. If you are scum with Nik, you have almost zero explanation for one death last night, because it would have meant that the whole other scumpair is either intellectually challenged or also thought that Max needed to die that night, which is unlikely for reasons I am currently failing to figure out how to put into text.

That aside, I am confident that the remaining three scum are among Furry, SPS, Slaxx, and Sniper. I feel strongly that part of the reason Furry left Sniper alive is because he KNEW that at least one person would fall into the trap that Puli did and then be able to push a lynch on them.

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Furry, is there some particular reason that your wiki doesn't have a listing of games you are in, and could you please provide said list for me? I want meta from at least three town and two scum games if possible.

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Also, I need to see posts from Ald, Deathnote, Puli, and either SK or Haylen, and by "posts" I mean more than just a sentence or two, posts with actual content (or in the case of the mods, prods + votecount)

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Deathnote, I am accusing Furry of being scum because 1. he is actively sabatoging the town via Sniper and 2. Furry has clear motivation for being involved with every kill made by Scum B. In the case of crypto/Dragonfly, he thought that crypto was scum and would have tried to crosskill. In the case of Max, Max was completely confident that Furry was scum and Furry was completely confident that Max was scum. I am sure that this is not a framing job by scum on Furry because I am the ONLY person pushing Furry for this and if it was a scum plot against Furry, it makes sense that at least one of the scum would be understanding of my wagon. Furry's argument of scum eliminating Max because they knew Max would be lynched after they would holds no water because of the mere fact that if Max was far back in line, I was even farther back in line to be lynched and rightfully should have been the one dead.

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Furry, your meta actually shows that you do tend to buddy up to someone on the opposite scumteam by calling them town as early as D1 in the past, and I don't see why this game would be an exception.

There is a dissonant note though. No one would argue that Max was scum with Nik, yet scum group B, if competent, should have been aiming for Nik's partner. I know that Furry is smart enough to do that. And furthermore well...I think its about time that I questioned the bias I've been having about Haylen, since I sort of arbitrarily said she was town based on the one point of her meta. This puts Furry and SPS towards towniness leaving...Deathnote, Sniper, and Slaxx. Will be testing the merit of this shortly in the meantime

unvote

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nvm about SPS, I thought he'd said something in our argument about nightkills on Day 2 about scum aiming for a xkill and how killing the other scum was the best course of action for them. Turns out that he didn't and I was thinking of a post of Max's from the same time period.

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Slaxx, read again. I've read the entire thing three times and you said nothing of the sort. Maybe you'd like to point me to where you think you implied it?

vote:Deathnote

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Sniper you don't actually HAVE to answer prods, you can ignore a couple if you want to sleep instead or something

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Also I would ask that no one hammers deathnote until he flips in this other game of his that I'm watching because he's acting a lot similar and under heavy suspicion there... ^_^ if he doesn't die today we can go ahead over here but I think we have time to wait it out and work out which of Sniper/SPS/Deathnote/Slaxx(/Puli/Ald) is scum. (People in parentheses, I think are clear but I don't trust that EVERYONE thinks they are clear)

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Ald, about 90% of my Nikanor case was based off of NK speculation....and you followed that...

Also Re: the Furry case, are you talking about the case for his being scum or the case for his being town, either of which is based on NK speculation.

Finally, guess who managed to land a really high fever and a smurfton of project and essay? :/ sorry that I won't be able to carry the town through Day 2, at least not if it ends before Friday.

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Okay, well I decided that Furry was town based on a secondary NK analysis

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If DN-Haylen is scum something is wrong in my book of reads.

Just like...everything else? I'm sorry, I read this and laughed for like 3min at the irony.

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sorry, I'll try not to let this go to my head too much *hugs Furry*

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I'll probably do partner analysis in the future, but ive met scum who are really good at hiding their partnering, even as noobs before :/

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unvote

don't lynch him until the weekend please, i have one more analysis i want to do first D:

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Sniper or Pulindar is/was scum with Nikanor.

Probably

Deathnote is part of mafia B.

Probablly

Deathnote is not Nikanor's partner.

Agree

Pulidar is part of mafia B.

Probably Not

It is possible for Pulindar and Deathnote to be partners.

Agree

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Claimed that the LC NK made Nika scummier, but attributed the dragon fly NK to that team anyway, correct?

Actually, I gave a list of people who would have motive to kill and later attributed the LC kill to Nika, assuming he had overridden his partner on that.

crap ihave class now and im still sick XP

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I've been checking up on Sniper's game he didnt confirm in and I noticed Furry is playing in that game (Newbie 922).

mod: Would it be breaking site policy if I asked Furry what read he had on the ex-Sniper playerslot (now Elii) or tried to find a read on it myself, since it IS a determining factor in how likely he is to be scum in THIS game?

I also agree that Sniper is either a troll or an alt testing a theory. But he is Scum A, and we're aiming for Scum B today.

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Puli is officially obvtown now. Still catching up on reading but Puli is town.

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mod: There is an ongoing game which is the only possible source for Sniper meta, unfortunately his slot has not flipped in that game and I don't want to accidentally violate the rule about discussing ongoing games, especially considering that Furry is playing in both games and could be influenced.

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I'm also really starting to wonder why I began to doubt that SPS was scum. As far as I can tell, I thought he was scum until he started saying "everyone always thinks I'm scum when I'm actually town" in every other post he made, and then I felt bad and let him slide off my radar.

I really need to stop doing that to people D: I'm going to take a wild shot and say that if SPS is scum, he is the passive partner of -
FML my word document with all of my notes on scumteams somehow disappeared.

- of whoever is Scum B. Either that or SPS/DN scumteam is failing at life. The only basis I have for that assertion is that Scum A failed at 42 last night and Scum B just kinda noobed around a lot, and I honestly can't see them as competent scum. I apologize if I insult people here, but the only people I could see as incompetent scum are SPS, DN, Puli, and Sniper, and Puli wouldn't have been scum because he would have killed Sniper, and Sniper isn't scum B because he's scum A because he's the only person stupid enough to fail to action.

Right Imma go iso ppl now

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I need posts from Ald that contain meaningful content that doesn't feel woolly and bleat.

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I'm a big intuitive thinker and a lot of the times when my reasoning jumps from Point A to Point X for apparently no reason, there's actually a BCD...UVW in the middle that I just plain didn't mention because I thought it was obvious. I have this problem with essay-writing too, but if you need me to explain things at some point, I can.

I iso'd DN and Haylen and there's nothing there that's really sticking out to me.

About Furry's point on the DN wagon, he really does have one this time. The only people who aren't wagoning on DN are DN himself and Ald...who has offered support for the DN wagon but is voting for Sniper instead? Am I the only person here who is finding this a leeeeetlle bit fishy? That added to the fact that...when was the last time people here ISO'd Ald? The only content he's given in the entirety of Day 3 is this post, where he supports but doesn't vote after a DN wagon using reasons that already existed and does the same with a Sniper wagon we specifically said we didn't want to take today.

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SPS, the only person DN could really be scum with is Ald unless scum is doing a really gutsy bus on him. He looks and smells much more like a mislynch target. Why do you think Ald is pro-town?

I can see how you would find Puli's position reconcilable with a DN partner and I realize that you don't give a shit about my NK analysis or anyone else's. But surely you can see that Ald is doing the exact same thing and on top of it failing to post any content what-so-ever?

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Also in case anyone was wondering, the game I was watching where DN was playing similarly, he's about to flip so I can meta it as soon as the mod gets around to posting the flip

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http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=13707

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mod: that warning is exactly the situation I've been trying to ask about in my last two questions to you that you didn't answer. In the future, I would like a solid answer BEFORE I get warned rather than AFTER.

I thought Haylen had already answered the question, but I guess I was wrong. In the future, you should probably assume that if the game isn't already over, it's not safe to talk about it.

Personally I think the scum teams are trying to cross kill at this point, so that's why players who most people agree are Town are still here.

Do you really think that after that Nika lynch, Max could possibly have been conceived of as Scum A? I don't think there was a snowball's chance in hell that anyone who was paying attention to the game would reach that conclusion, therefore this statement of yours leaves us with an entirely unexplained kill by Scum B.

Uhh... you haven't even read everything and you consider someone obvTown?

Considering that I'd read his full posts and the ones I hadn't were by, if I recall correctly, modHaylen, Slaxx, and SPS...yes, I do.

More buddying. At this point Pulindar has buddied to Slaxx and SFG -- critical players right now, just based on # of posts and length.

Right now, it looks like you ran out of good points against Puli and decided to go back to your old one that since Puli is not an asshole, he must be scum.
I apologize to people as town all the time, I also see merit in peoples' posts even when I disagree with them all the time although I tend to be more focused on tearing apart their mistakes so that they can refine their reasoning. I promise you, I don't metamorphosize into scum every time I say something nice.

Okay the bolded part really sounds like a scum slip. How do you know Scum A killed Max?

Consensus at this point is that either Scum A clear forgot to kill or BOTH scumteams targeted Max. Furry has made it clear that he believes the second option, therefore Scum A would have killed Max, as would Scum B.

This doesn't make any sense. Even if SFG is not listing himself, that's still 5 people left who are implied to be wagoning on DN -- and it's 5 to lynch.

I had myself as an implied hammer refraining from voting until I'd done all the analysis I want to. As you would know HAD YOU BOTHERED TO READ THE GAME. Or did you not see when I clearly stated that I was going to temporarily unvote to make sure that DN didn't get lynched before I'd utilized the time to analyze? That combined with the fact that DN was at basically l-0 with Sniper, SPS, Slaxx, and Furry stating intention to vote, along with my also stating intention to vote, which leaves you, Puli, and DN as not being on the wagon...okay you're right, but I'm still convinced that Puli is town because the only possible Puli partner is Sniper and Sniper is Scum A.

More to come when I read the next page

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Slaxx, who would Puli be scum WITH? Nikanor? In that case, wtf is Sniper?

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vote: Ald

I'm having a really bad day today, the cherry on top is the fact that apparently now in dethy, making your spreadsheet a verbal one instead of one in excel is scummy, or for that matter, so is making one at all. Never mind that its the only way to reasonably catch the scum in a game of dethy. And I got lynched for it three games in a row despite the fact that said conversation was only relevant in the first game. Not to mention that a perfectly legit quickhammer got delayed by lag and turned from an instawin into an irrevorcible "I am scum" message for all to see solely because my internet is fail.

I hate my life.

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Note: that paragraph is not intended to be a justification of my vote, but rather a justification of the lack of justification of my vote.

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Considering the number of people who were voting for Max, I would not be surprised if Scum A thought Max was Scum B.

That's exactly what I said. But then why would Scum B have killed Max? Or do you think Scum B nokilled?

"Ran out of good points against Puli"? So, my previous points WERE good by your implied admission. Noted. Anyway, consider just how powerful Pulindar-scum would stand if he had you and Slaxx backing him up.

By "Ran out of good points" I meant "ran out of points that hadn't been already disproven." Sorry for the misunderstanding.

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Oh also, a good part of why I decided DN stands a decent chance of being town is for reasons that I apparently can't discuss even though its pure unbiased fact that anyone could look up. Go figure.

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Ald, why were you voting for DN when you already had access to this game of yours where he was town and played similarly, if it could persuade you to unvote now? You gained 0 new information but somehow it was enough to convince you.

I'm very skeptical.

vote: Ald

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Why Sniper? Everyone knows Sniper is Scum A. Therefore we have really two options.
1. lynch Sniper and let Scum B choose whoever they want to kill tonight
2. lynch someone else, forcing Scum B to kill Sniper.

Explain if im doing something wrong I'm trying my hardest to stay in this game under circumstances that would normally force me to replace out because I would like to think that my reads are both good and make a difference.

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You tried to push a mislynch, and then the town realized it was a mislynch, so you are now trying to sneak your vote off of him while you try to find a new mislynch to push.

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Damn it are you guys really going to get Ald to get away this blatantly here? Stacking votes on DN to ENSURE that he survives until tomorrow even after saying DN is probably town?

Ald, if you ARE town, I would ask you to think about this really quickly. What you really want is for the town to win, and that does not necessarily mean that YOU survive. What it does mean is that if you are in a situation where you are so scummy that you are distracting the town, and the only other wagon you can push is one you are fairly confident is a mislynch, then you should be aiming for "the least respected of the two of us should die" because if you are BOTH townies, then that is TWO mislynches for the price of one and basically fucks the town over.

I sacrificed myself in Newbie 898 for that exact reason, and because I wasn't there to distract the town, we won.

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If he didn't imply it, then wtf is this?

Also RQS may have some advantage for town after all. Cut out the parts that aren't relevant.

2. Is lurking a scum tell?
5. Policy lynches—good or bad?

2. Yes.
5. Depends on how bad the player is, and how many mislynches are left. I'm not against it, but not gung-ho for it either.

I would have expected a much stronger response to question 2 if lurking were seriously the ONLY scumtell he looks at, but he hasn't displayed any other tell he even looks for.
His answer to 5 makes sense until you realize that both myself and a couple other townsfolk were screaming at the tops of our lungs that we've been in pseudolylo since Day 2 and yes Ald is still pushing lynches based on policy.

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I give up. no one ever believes me anyways and i seem to be failing my town miserably right now.

unvote

ill replace out if i get a majority of people to agree.

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its not just that...its that im also trying real hard not to drop out of college and thats been sucking up inordinate amounts of my time and also putting me under enormous rl pressure that i have trouble separating from ingame pressure and so ill start playing worse and worse while im under all this pressure and aggh i dont even have time to make this post i have three essays to write and a problemset and a prospectus and a project and two discussion postings and then i need to check over all of them at the writing center and tutoring center because if I want to stay in college i have to get A-A+ on every one of these assignments in a C-centric bell curve and X______X