Open 202 - Friends JK 9 (Game Over)

[Lowell]

/confirm,

vote TDC

[Lowell]

@semi- while I appreciate your desire to protect me, you forget I'm pretty much unlynchable.

[Lowell]

Is TDC your scumbuddy?

Excellent question. No. Yours?

[Lowell]

TDC claimed SK

[Lowell]

I can't tell if wdjat is buttering me up for a lynch or to protect me from a lynch. Either way it's scummy.

unvote, vote wdjat

[Lowell]

unvote, vote serrose

and post 75 is hilarious.

[Lowell]

unvote

sorry wasn't paying attention, didn't realize that was L-1. Just felt like a good bandwagon.

[Lowell]

Yeah can't really make that unvote look good. I like bandwagons, but L-1 is dangerous, anything can happen.

[Lowell]

wait, unvoting from L-1 is abad thing?

Who knows. People are touchy. Serrose doesn't seem to be in any hurry to rush to his own defense, though, so whatever. I'll probably put that vote back.

[Lowell]

serrose's defense is basically "it's too early to lynch me!". Not sure how impressed I am by that.

[Lowell]

unvote, vote confid

Three reasons:
1) OMGUS
2) His passing mention of his predecessor's play is strange. It's like he wanted to cut off a potential liability (if there was one) before anyone could bring it up. His staged diplomacy in the process and in the post after is basically useless.
3) He's made an "anyone here?" post, but hasn't followed up with anything to get the game moving, other than a spiritless attack on someone (me), which he quickly caveats by saying it could be nothing. Kind of an... obvious thing to say. Like a cheap out to be used later on if needed.

[Lowell]

I'm not buying 154, but it does make a little sense in a way.

I guess my feeling is if someone asked me to comment on my predecessor I would just say no, or say, "uh, he's town" and be done with it. What I saw instead was confid trying to win cred by showing how "objectively" he could look at things... which of course makes no sense, since obviuosly he has to conclude that his predecessor was town.

Even if you buy his explanation in 154, to then vote serrose for mentioning it is a stretch. So confid believes it was serrose's brilliant plan to trick him into commenting on his predecessor so that we could jump on him for doing so? I doubt it. It looks more like a one-line throwaway. confid is taking out his frustration more than making a solid vote. It's not like there are no reasons to vote serrose. But to seize on

that

one seems strange.

[Lowell]

Prod avoidance. Will read through when I get a chance.

[Lowell]

Bio hazard has been okay, but I'm not overwhelmed. He shows a bit more tunnelling on wjat than I'd like, which reads more like defensiveness than scum-hunting. Given that his predecessors were horrible, I'm fine stringing him up. Where are we, vote-wise?

[Lowell]

Those hemming and hawing over a lynch here just need to step up and make it happen. No one looks good by claiming how conflicted they are about it.

[Lowell]

The talk about powerroles isn't that useful. Generally speaking, they'll probably be more useful as cleared innocents than they'll actually be useful power-wise.

[Lowell]

Honestly, I'm nowhere in this game. I'll read back and catch up.

[Lowell]

Starting a couple of pages before the end of D1:

191- reg enters, recounts the game, votes dry-fit
193- regfan offers tactical powerrole advice [+, gutsy to bring up]
200- don votes dry-fit
202- bio enters, votes dry-fit
206- assassin doesn't like the dry-fit case
208- semi agrees w/ assassin
215- semi votes biohazard for bad wagon
224- bio leads w/ 4 votes (lowell, assassin, TDC, semi)
239- semi unvotes, votes regfan
263- don votes bio
270- wdjat hammers
272- bio, semi both town
273- reg is angry at jailer, votes dry, wants tracker to claim w/ guilty [-, looks like a setup]
297- assassin votes regfan [+, lazy, but townvibe for some reason]
302- dry fit agrees, votes reg [-, the question for assassin reads strangely]
308- don votes wdjat

Some thoughts:

1)

regfan

's 273 is very scummy. The indignation about not protecting semi looks contrived as hell. No, there's obviously no way the jailer would know who to protect out of 11 people. The idea that we can be upset at the jailer for missing is idiotic. It's especially odd considering the one thing noticeable about semi's play was that he was the player most suspicious of regfan. I think reg just wants something to talk about to try to look active.

fos regfan

2) The

wdjat

votes look like votes of convenience. I don't see wdjat's play as particularly awesome, but I'm not sure what he's done that's scummy either. The hammer is fine in my book.

3) I get very strong townvibes from

assassin

and

TDC

. The former is harder to explain, but for some reason his total lack of defensiveness impresses me. TDC did well at the end of D1.

4)

fos dry fit, don_johnson

. There was a wagon yesterday on dry, led partically by don and rivalling the bio (town) wagon. Then, as the bio wagon looked possibly stalled (when semi started a wagon elsewhere), don switched his vote to the leading wagon (bio), putting him at L-1. Today, don votes wdjat (the bio hammer), even though he himself was also on the bio wagon, and even though for much of yesterday he seemed interested in dry fit more. Dry fit, for his part, made a very suspicious looking post in 302 (as if he's looking for confirmation as to which direction the regwagon is going). I think D1 was distancing that got a little too scary for comfort, and now they're just ignoring each other on D2.

vote dryfit

. Though I think if dry is scum, reg probably isn't.

[Lowell]

Read again. I'm saying I

don't

especially think it's a possibility.

Yeah, I would potentially vote for reg, almost for 273 alone. But I want to see my dry/don theory through.

[Lowell]

So, don, why not vote dry?

I'm very not impressed by the way don decided to throw his weight behind regfan, acting as if it's the only way to get a lynch, even though dry also has two votes. PARTICULARLY since, as I pointed out, don

did

more or less lead the (minimal) charge on dry yesterday. I normally try not to do this, but I can definately see a dry/don scumteam coming into focus.

[Lowell]

i have already covered that. its not the only way to get a lynch by any means and i never indicated that was the case. there was(is) zero interest in the SA wagon, so I moved to who i feel is the more suspicious of the two leading candidates.

lowell: do you think reg is town? calling a dry/don scum team before reg's flip, with SA lurking just seems premature. but whatever. no reason to move my vote. if you want dry lynched you have time to do it and both TDC and wdjat aren't voting. go ahead and make your case.

I don't necessarily think he's town. But I outlined my idea that you and dry might be a pair, and then immediately you did something that would seem to be pro-dry. Just pointing it out. But yeah, you could be right.

[Lowell]

I'm starting to get a more townish read from regfan of late. Even don looks a

little

better, credit for participating.

I think dry is the right play for today.

[Lowell]

Generally, when a wagon stalls, yet no one posts to refute it, and then the game dies for a few days, I assume that wagon is a good one being derailed by scum hoping to inertia themselves out of a teammate's lynch. I'll assume that's what's happening here. Dry-fit is the right play.

[Lowell]

Generally, when a wagon stalls, yet no one posts to refute it, and then the game dies for a few days, I assume that wagon is a good one being derailed by scum hoping to inertia themselves out of a teammate's lynch. I'll assume that's what's happening here. Dry-fit is the right play.

Given this read, why do you think that Dry-fit is the correct lynch? Wouldn't the situation you're talking about imply that Regfan is found scum?

Actually you might be right. Hadn't thought about it that way... mostly because I'm not

on

that stalled wagon and could thus move it if I wanted to.

[Lowell]

TDC, why not dry-fit?

[Lowell]

Alright, doesn't seem like the dry lynch is happening.

unvote, vote reg

. I have townvibes on SA, and don's strange unvote makes me think maybe he's scum trying to jump off the buddywagon. Also reg's vanilla claim makes him a safe lynch.

[Lowell]

Interesting.

I may be falling for the saddest scum-trick ever, but

unvote

[Lowell]

389 is good, and I'm impressed by SA. Still not sure whether I want to jump back on the regwagon though.

[Lowell]

vote dry-fit

. Okay, maybe I'm a sucker.

[Lowell]

Why not? What the hell else is happening?

[Lowell]

no one needs to hammer. if you don't claim you'll be dead.

[Lowell]

or wjdat could just grow a pair and vote someone.

[Lowell]

vote no lynch

Though I think clearly a kill was blocked. Someone has some interesting, though difficult to interpret, information.

[Lowell]

I think hypo claim is probably a bad idea in this case. But reg's idea isn't horrible, I dont' think. Unless there's something I'm not understanding about the mechanics.

Although of bigger concern to me is that there's a jailer probably sitting on some seriously good info. Having that person claim is risky as hell tho.

[Lowell]

@don- you stayed home day 2? Why? And no one died? How does this fit at all? your theory is that regfan forgot to send in a kill? If you are and did what you said, the only combination that makes sense is two inactives as scum.

@reg- you should probably chill out. No lynch is still the right play.

[Lowell]

I'm also not jailkeeper.

431 rubs me the wrong way, having trouble saying why.

[Lowell]

I guess my theory was that even if jailkeeper dies (which is no guarantee if he can pick out his attacker), the tracker gets one more day to find scum, and we're in lylo either way.

Basically, both powerroles would have a chance to find a scum tonight.

[Lowell]

So, not to get too meta about this, but the scum

have

to be the inactives at this point, right?

[Lowell]

I still tend to think scum just forgot. I'd favor a no lynch here still.

[Lowell]

I still tend to think scum just forgot. I'd favor a no lynch here still.

[Lowell]

I guess I dont' see the harm in no lynch here.

I'm not convinced scum will necessarily want to NK, and I dont' think we'll be stalemated just because we don't lynch today.

Also, were I scum, I'd also want to play for the win, so I don't think it's our responsibility to be the ones to put ourselves at risk by lynching at lylo here.

vote no lynch

[Lowell]

^^^ what he said

And if scum want to no-kill, who cares. My guess is they'll want to kill though, so we might as well let them while we can afford to.

[Lowell]

this is a little pointless he will get lynched anyways if you dont vote and lurking now doesnt help

you guys

anyways.
defend him or lynch him, there are no other possibilities.

Eh, thought I'd at least point out the bold. Who knows if it means anything.

[Lowell]

Okay then I'll take one more shot at it anyway.

If we no lynch, the WORST that happens is.... nothing happens.

The BEST that happens is even if they kill don (which is the likely target) the tracker has a chance to find out who the killer was.

We're in the same place either way, right?

[Lowell]

Whatever. So, TDC, how do you feel about a reg lynch?

[Lowell]

Aight screw it, let's just do this.

I am the tracker

wjdat didn't kill anyone N1. I investigated TDC last night but obviously that doesnt' matter.

I'm claiming now partly for what TDC said, and partly for other reasons that aren't worth getting into.

[Lowell]

If the rules are that we'd kill reg at deadline regardless of whether he's reached 4 or not, than I'd say TDCs not hammering means absolutely nothing. If I were TDC-scum and reg is in fact innocent, I'd just run out the clock, then make the kill myself tonight for the win after being "cleared".

vote chn

I tend actually to believe the scum are chn and TDC at this point. Only thing stoppping me is why TDC wouldn't have made a kill last night. Particularly since there was no indication that town couldnt' ALSO no-kill.

[Lowell]

Well that was obvious. At least I'm great.