Open 144 - Near-Vanilla - GAME OVER!

[Kdub]

/confirm

[Kdub]

Vote: AndyTony

You are at the top of the player list, so you are probably scum!

[Kdub]

With 13 players, it takes

8 votes to lynch

. Deadline is

June 7, 2009 at 11:59pm Central

.

Shouldn't it be 7 to lynch?

[Kdub]

Looks like we're moving out of the RVS, so I will

Unvote

for now.

[Kdub]

Looks like we're moving out of the RVS, so I will

Unvote

for now.

What made you feel we were officially out? (I'm not being sarcastic)

Well, people are posting (I think) serious reasons behind their votes, as opposed to "he doesn't like Survivor" or similar reasons typical of a RVS. I take that as a sign that people are getting serious and trying to figure things all.

hohum actually states that if zero gets emotional, he will lynch him for it - - - we don't lynch for people being emotional (because townies can be so as well) we lynch for being scum - -

My observation is to stress that we should be careful about applying the pressure willy nilly. Hohum is aggressive, which in all fairness is just as emotional as Zero.

A player getting emotional is not a good reason to lynch them, but when they get emotional, they may be more likely to, as scum, inadvertently say things that will give them away and that we

can

lynch them for.

[Kdub]

What made you feel we were officially out? (I'm not being sarcastic)

I guess the first vote after we had moved out of the RVS was hohum's vote of ODDin in post 100, but the discussion had been brewing for a page before that. Why were you curious about that? Did you feel that we were still random voting?

[Kdub]

I'm also looking at you as scum due to Post 166 where you actually considered me lying about being busy and lazy and lurking. Personally, I think that would be an absolutely pathetic scum tactic to attempt, and considering it is even funnier.

That actually can be an effective tactic, especially if the town is way off from finding scum and some townies are at each others' throats and dominating the conversation. Any time somebody claims to have external reasons for not participating, I generally believe them, but keep open the possibility that it may just be an excuse they made up so they can lurk.

[Kdub]

If AT was looking like an easy Day 1 target, that would mean he was looking suspicious. Why would I let someone who looks somewhat sus. just pass by?

You could say the exact same thing about lurkers. Simply because he's aggresive doesn't make him scum, infact I'd say lurking is far more scummy than putting your neck out and helping catch mafia. At least he's fostering discussion to flush them out.

His discussion hasn't really been aimed toward flushing out lurkers. I think lurking is generally a null tell anyway.

[Kdub]

What kind of mafia to town numbers are we looking at here. Three mafioso would make sense wouldn't it? If someone can confirm this I have a vote to dispense.

...

Did you really not know this was an open setup? I tend to be suspicious of people who make "newbie" mistakes like this because it seems like an attempt to appear innnocent and naive.

[Kdub]

Let's leave the analysis of each others scum playing abilities until the end of the game aye? If it does turn out you are scum it speaks a lot to your abilities that you were so comprehensively outed in a "newbie's" mind by page 10.

You seem pretty sure of yourself here. I think your case against Cephir is logical and is one of the best leads we have at the moment, but it's far from a sure bet. I'm not getting a good vibe from your level of confidence, but perhaps that will change as the discussion moves further along.

Also, where has Pitstop been? He was at the root of Cephir's argument, now it seems like he is sitting back and watching the fireworks after Corp started going after Cephir.

[Kdub]

I would also add where has ODDin and Cephir's investigation of Pitstop gone?

A fair point. I'm wondering why ODDin and Pitstop stopped posting once you started going after Cephir. One would think they would contribute to the discussion since it was Cephir's interaction with them that drew suspicion. Can both of you comment on Corp's argument against Cephir?

[Kdub]

Mod, can we get prods on Pitstop and hohum?

[Kdub]

The Corporation- Not necessarily scum, but I am suspicious of him, since he has kept his vote for me since the very beginning for the lame reason that he doesn't like that my name has letters and numbers in it. Thus, making me believe that it's just an easy way for him to vote for me without anyone noticing.

What possible reason would he have for wanting to put a "legitimate" vote on you that early in the game?

[Kdub]

Exactly my point, Kdub, he doesn't have one.

I think you misinterpreted my question (or maybe I misinterpreted your initial point). Your claim was that Corporation didn't remove his vote on you from the RVS so that he could vote for you without anyone noticing, correct? My question is, why would he want to do that? In other words, what do you think his true motivation is for wanting to keep his vote on you even now? If you don't think there is a reason, then your claim seems just to be idle speculation and doesn't really say much.

[Kdub]

Yeah, things have been a bit quiet, but we've still got some time. I don't think Zero has done anything outright scummy, he just strikes me as an unmotivated townie. I'm still wondering where Pitstop went. He hasn't been replaced, but hasn't posted anything either.

[Kdub]

subconscious from hearing or not, accidental immunity is a killer

Is that just based on your past experiences?

[Kdub]

Amazing how much conversation a couple of bold letters can start. I voted for him because him not posting, even before prodding him seemed like a way to stay under the radar. He had maybe one conflict and the end. And I didn't try to confuse the game [at least during that vote]. If you don't like my vote, do something about it.

Why did you wait until the mod announced that he was going to be replaced before you voted dejkha? If you felt this way about him, you could have done it earlier. It just seems like curious timing.

I'm still not really reading Zero as more than a bored player who is trying to stir things up, though that definitely isn't helpful to the town. I'm not opposed to lynching him just because he seems to be intentionally causing confusion, but I'm not terribly confident that he will end up being scum.

[Kdub]

Sorry I haven't been more active lately, I'll need to do a reread this weekend.

[Kdub]

I'm in the middle of a reread right now, but I noticed one thing strange in post 285:

The Corporation- Not necessarily scum, but I am suspicious of him, since he has kept his vote for me since the very beginning for the lame reason that he doesn't like that my name has letters and numbers in it. Thus, making me believe that it's just an easy way for him to vote for me without anyone noticing.

I can assure you up until this post the cohabitation of letters and numbers was the only reason for my vote being on you. Rest assured if you went to lynchville (or even got close) the non-elaboration of my random vote would be very much a point of contention. Everyone would notice.

Post 280 was all bone and no meat so I'm happy leaving my vote on you for a little bit. You are by no means my number one lynch target yet.

I missed this the first time, but the mod made a mistake and actually did not see that you had unvoted Zero and voted Cephrir instead. Since you had seemed pretty convinced about Ceph in your posts up to this point, why did you not mention this to the mod? It seems like you wanted Zero to think you were still voting for him, even though you should have known that you were not.

Reading the rest of the game now.

[Kdub]

Alright, my impressions so far:

Cephrir - I don't like how you've been playing so far. You appeal to emotion too often when somebody attacks you, and I'm liking MadCrawdad's case regarding your "note to self". If you really wanted to remind yourself, then make an note outside of the game. Would you really have gone back all those pages to reread your note anyway? For now,

FoS: Cephrir

.

MadCrawdad - Seems pro-town so far and has put forth logical arguments. I agree with your case on Cephrir.

AndyTony - Slightly town, looks like you are generally trying to analyze arguments logically. I don't really agree with your case against Cephrir's asking for a claim from Zero. I don't think there's much there. His "note to self" is far more suspicious.

Zero - No freaking idea. I have a feeling you are town, but are bored and entirely unhelpful. If you are town, you basically are making yourself immune to scum nightkills because you are confusing the town so much. Someone mentioned it earlier, and I agree, that I would hate to have this come down to an endgame scenario with you as one of the players. Start explaining your votes better and don't intentionally try to look suspicious.

Corporation - Neutral for now. Seemed motivated earlier in the game when going after Cephrir, though I wasn't comfortable with how confident he seemed. I pointed out an inconsistency in my previous post, which I want him to address. What are your current thoughts on Zero and Cephrir?

The others haven't said enough for me to really judge. Of the lurkers, I am most suspicious of Khamisa, who has basically said nothing but went after Zero for the same reason. I'd like to hear more from her in particular.

Will check in again tonight.

[Kdub]

If you really wanted to remind yourself, then make an note outside of the game.

Wouldn't work.

Why not?

Pssst. You're a lurker.

I admit I haven't been into this game as much as I should have up to this point, but that doesn't mean I can't suspect others.

[Kdub]

Cephrir, I won't vote until I hear an explanation from Corporation about what I quoted a few posts ago, so you are not dead yet.

[Kdub]

Khamisa, I'm getting the impression that you are only posting one-liners whenever you are prodded. You seem to respond fairly quickly after prod requests, and not saying a whole lot. Can you share your thoughts on the other players besides Zero?

[Kdub]

Well, you weren't prodded, but you posted right after a prod was requested on you, so it seems like you are following the game but not saying anything. Do you really not have thoughts on any of the other players?

[Kdub]

This game is going nowhere right now. Khamisa, since you claim to be trying to make things more exciting, but are clearly not doing so, I will do it for you.

Vote: Khamisa

You've been posting content in other games, but posting mostly fluff in this one. I'd like to hear some answers and opinions from you.

[Kdub]

Khamisa: His note to self is post 177. Do you believe his explanation for the note?

[Kdub]

Since it looks like Cephrir is going to be today's lynch, I am willing to switch my vote to him. Before that though, I still want to hear Khamisa's opinion on Cephrir rather than just saying that she doesn't understand the case against him. The content of the past few pages make the case fairly clear, and I'm suspicious of her for apparently trying to avoid saying anything about it. If Cephrir ends up being scum, I think there is a decent chance Khamisa is as well.

[Kdub]

Since Corporation is being replaced, I guess we won't hear an explanation for the inconsistency I pointed out in 418. What does everyone else make of that? If Cephrir ends up being town, I'm thinking Corp/his replacement would be a good person to investigate further.

[Kdub]

I

do

think he's scummy (I am FoSing him), which is one of the reasons I am willing to switch.

If Cephrir turns out to be town, I think we should take a closer look at Corp and his replacement because he was the one who initially started a case on Cephrir. I wouldn't go so far as to say he is likely scum, but I find logical inconsistencies to be suspicious.

[Kdub]

I

do

think he's scummy (I am FoSing him), which is one of the reasons I am willing to switch.

The others being...?

If I can't get anything going against Khamisa, there's no point in being the lone person voting for her, so I have no problem switching to another player I find suspicious. I don't even think Khamisa is necessarily more likely to be scum than Ceph, I mainly wanted to get her to say something since I felt she has been actively lurking so far.

[Kdub]

I feel that Cephrir does those things quite often; sometimes he's town, sometimes he's scum.

Also, I've never played with you to my knowledge Khamisa... so are you secretly putting more effort into this game than you appear to be or making things up?

I'd like to hear Khamisa's response to this, because either she is lying about having meta on Ceph, or she has investigated his past games, which further supports the active lurker image she has.

Mod: any word on replacements?

[Kdub]

It's only scummy for you to have held out on an opinion on a player being SCUM.

You held off on stating that you felt someone was TOWN - - that would only be scummy if the person was near lynch which was not the case.

You don't feel that holding out an opinion in general is suspicious (except for certain power roles)? The main thing that struck me about the note to self was that the information didn't seem important enough relative to the apparent need to keep it hidden, as well as the fact that it didn't seem to make sense to hold that information for several game days. It just doesn't add up logically.

[Kdub]

Just checking in since I haven't posted in a while. Right now, I'd support either a Cephrir or Khamisa lynch, but we should wait for the replacements to get a chance to have a say.

[Kdub]

Let's not lynch Ceph until all the replacements have been taken care of. Why put him at L-1 and not even know why he is suspicious?

[Kdub]

Alright, looks like this game is almost good to go again.

I'm still thinking Ceph or Khamisa are the most suspicious.

Khamisa, why do you think Zero seemed frustrated when dejkha left? Looking over his posts, he votes dej without much explanation, but doesn't really say much about it except for 344, which doesn't come across as any more frustrated than many of his other posts in this game.

[Kdub]

Zer0 wonders "Why? We aren't fielding much suspicion? Zer0 is

frustrated

that one of his partners quit on him, so he votes him in frustration (and also being a bus). However, his little reasoning gets everybody's attention.

I dunno, seems like pure speculation. I don't think he came across as particularly frustrated, given how all over the map he's been. Are there specific things he said that you found suspicious, or is it more of a gut feeling?

V/LA Sunday and parts of Monday.

[Kdub]

The Ceph and Khamisa wagons seem most prodominant.

Can we get an officil recp from everyone on the wagons on their views to each case?

I felt that Khamisa was mostly commenting on discussion and not really asking questions, and I don't agree with her reasons for suspecting Zero. She seems like she is trying to slip under the radar. I also didn't like how she initially claimed not to understand the case on Cephrir, even though I thought MadCrawdad (and AndyTony to a lesser extent) did a pretty good job summarizing it.

Ceph is also suspicious because of the note to self business and his supposed reasoning for that, but I'm more comfortable voting Khamisa right now.

[Kdub]

Pablito replaced The Corporation, the first post just hasn't been updated to reflect that.

[Kdub]

Fifth, Cephrir seems on the verge of paranoia that people will make connections betweeen him and Khamisa. True, Khamisa has been siding with him and sort of following his lead. But the fact that Cephrir points it out every time it happens and tells everyone it's just Khamisa being scummy gives the impression they are connected. Ironically, for the most part people seem torn between lynching Cephrir or lynching Khamisa.....interesting.

Interesting take that I didn't really think much of before. I was thinking that Ceph was voting for Khamisa just to deflect attention onto someone other than himself. Do you have specific quotes or posts that stood out as Ceph being paranoid?

[Kdub]

You guys need to chill out. The "case" you are trying to make on each other is ridiculous and based more on personal dislike than anything seriously suspicious. I thought we were starting some good discussion on page 30 before your argument happened. Let's hear more from the people who haven't commented on the Ceph or Khamisa wagons yet.

[Kdub]

Upon another glance Alduskkel, although not really a part of the ridiculousness-fest, does come off as unnecessarily defensive in my opinion. And not just to my post, but others as well.

I kinda see what you are saying, but I think he has been fairly consistent in this behavior since joining the game. Probably more of a playstyle thing, but someone with meta on him might be able to say more.

I'm still suspicious of Khamisa, but I'd be OK with a Cephrir lynch. I guess we just have to wait to hear from him.

[Kdub]

You guys need to chill out. The "case" you are trying to make on each other is ridiculous and based more on personal dislike than anything seriously suspicious. I thought we were starting some good discussion on page 30 before your argument happened. Let's hear more from the people who haven't commented on the Ceph or Khamisa wagons yet.

If arguments bother then mafia probably isn't your cup of tea.

How would you suggest we go about scum hunting, and what makes you think that focusing on two people is in any way productive?

Arguments are fine if they help to further discussion. Your argument was narrowly focused and was a distraction from what I felt was the start of some decent discussion. If you think AndyTony is scum, then make a case based on objective evidence rather than personal dislike and accusations of OMGUS.

Ceph, if you are town, then your attitude is not at all helpful. Even if you are going to be lynched, you can still help the town by sharing your suspicions and any last pieces of evidence you might have against others so we will have more information to work with on D2. To me, your refusal to claim is essentially a vanilla claim. If you have nothing left to say, I will hammer tonight.

[Kdub]

Going back to my D1 vote.

Vote: Khamisa

She's been getting away with too much lurking, even after she was called on it.

hohum, my comment about your argument was directed at you, AndyTony, and Alduskkel. Had any of them responded in the same way you did, I would have answered them in the same way. I did not defend AndyTony, nor did I push for a no-lynch (don't know where you got that).

[Kdub]

I don't think voting for someone being an active lurker when they are mod-confirmed V/LA is a good plan. If you feel Khamisa is scum due to active lurking, why don't you take this time while khamisa is gone to analyze the rest of her playstyle and build a case, or at least some questions for her to answer when she gets back?

Some reasons I suspect Khamisa:

Posts 293 and 299, she suspects Zer0 for not contributing or asking questions, yet she has not done so either at this point (and doesn't for a long time after this point as well).

In post 433, she thinks Zer0 is town (this is after he has voted dejhka who wanted to be replaced). Then, in 493, she says he is scummy because of his reaction to dejhka's replacement request, despite the fact that he said nothing new about dejhka since 433. She later pushes a case against him based almost entirely on this, even though she said she thought he was town right after he did it.

She suspects Alduskkel and ODDin for accusing her of active lurking (post 537), which seems like an OMGUS reaction rather than addressing their arguments. Regardless of whether she thinks she has been lurking or not (I think she has been), she has done very little to break her image as that of a lurker, even after she was accused of being one.

How's this for active lurking: she has not posted in the game since July 21, and apparently will not post until the end of the week. That's over 2 weeks with zero posts, yet she still wants to stay in the game. Meanwhile, she has made multiple posts in other games during that time.

[Kdub]

I think MadCrawdad's original questioning of AndyTony was fair. He saw something that didn't seem right, and AT reacted a bit more strongly than I would have expected to that, however, he has been pretty open and forthright so far in his explanations. I'm reading both of them as town right now. The one thing that seemed strange to me was Alduskkel switching his vote to AT. On D1, I thought Alduskkel was very thorough, commenting on every little bit of information and asking lots of probing questions, yet now he votes AT with little explanation other than that he agrees with MC. It just seems inconsistent with his D1 play.

FoS: Alduskkel

. I don't think you have said much about AT's reasoning regarding OMGUS and the shortening of the deadline. Can you address those?

[Kdub]

No kill means jailkeeper was successful or mafia didn't kill. Not going to delve into the folds of OMGUS there.

The latter is almost never the case. The deception gained by the mafia not killing doesn't outweigh the value they gain by taking out a potential power role.

I think Kdub's case on AndyTony is a bit weak.

Assuming you meant MadCrawdad instead of me (since he is the one actually making the case on AT), what do you find weak about it? Also, I still want to you address what made you switch your opinion on Zer0 during D1 since you initially thought he was town after dej requested replacement.

[Kdub]

The exchange between AndyTony and MadCrawdad is just making me feel more confident that both of them are town. MC is being very careful and deliberate in looking for inconsistencies in AT's play. I think that AT's stance on OMGUS is a bit inconsistent, but not outright scummy. Sure, he's going to react differently when he is the one being accused, but the degree to which his definition of OMGUS supposedly changed is, in my opinion, not so large as to build a strong case around. It's good to point it out and note it, but I would not feel comfortable suspecting someone based on it. The rest of AT's defense has been logical, and he has made an effort to address all the main points against him.

Alduskkel, on the other hand, I'm still not comfortable with. It's OK to agree with MC's case, but he hasn't done anything to pursue the case any further than MC has already taken it. It seems like MC is the one doing all the research, bringing up points from D1 against AT, and asking lots of questions, while Aldus is just saying, "I agree with everything MC says" without raising new points himself. This is not how he was playing on D1, when he was the one asking lots of questions, looking for new lines of investigation, etc.

I'm still sticking with my vote on Khamisa, who has conveniently disappeared for another week while AT, Aldus, and MC are dominating the conversation. With so many lurkers (Kham, Kise, The Replacement, pablito, and Zer0 being the major offenders on D2 so far), I'd be willing to bet at least one (possibly more) of them is scum trying to hide among the rest of them. Khamisa has been the biggest lurker of all, even before her recent V/LA, and still has not answered for her flip-flop on her opinion of Zer0.

[Kdub]

And what flip-flop opinion of Zer0ph34r do you speak of, kDub? I don't recall her [Khamisa] having one of me.

In post 433, she says "I think Zer0 is annoyed town." This was after dejkha asked to be replaced and you voted him. Then in 493, she says you are leaning toward mafia. From here onward, she starts suspecting you because of your vote for dejkha (see 537 and 546 for example), even though nothing had changed since she thought you were town in 433. I should mention it was around this time that people started calling her out for lurking, so I think if she is scum, she could have been trying to fabricate a case against you to make it seem like she was doing something.

[Kdub]

Unvote, Vote: Khamisa

.

Yes, this is another 180.
Yes, I expect people to accuse me of opportunistically changing my vote, and that I'm only changing it because I'm receiving flak.
Yes, I wasn't thinking that clearly the last few pages.
No, I don't care about those things.

Bottom line for Khamisa:
-active lurking
-inconsistent opinion on Zer0ph34r

I can be more specific.

Are you changing your opinion on AT being scum? If so, what was it that made you do so?

@ pablito & hohum:
Do you not believe that there is at least one scum among the several lurkers in the game? I think there almost has to be. And if so, how do we pick the scum out when there is nothing to go by when analyzing them? Even if we successfully catch the scum among the active players, we're going to be in trouble on D3 or D4 when we have gotten no information on over half the remaining players. On D1, Khamisa posted very little until some pressure was put on her to contribute. Also, during the 10-day period before her recent V/LA (from 7/21 to 8/1), she made no posts in this game, but several in other games. The fact that she has active lurked to this extent, yet still wants to stay in the game is telling me that something else is going on besides her being a townie who is too bored to contribute.

[Kdub]

Fine, but lynching someone V/LA is still in extremely poor taste. What's the harm in leaving her alive so she can respond? Lynching someone *KNOWN* not to be at their keyboard so they can't respond is:

A) rushing a lynch
B) very one-sided.

We're not lyching her today. Sorry.

She's nowhere near a lynch right now. If we were putting her close to a lynch, you would have a point. Right now, I am voting for the player who I find most suspicious, and I intend to give her a chance to respond.

In fact KDub, you seem to comment a lot, but the only one person I can remember you ever even putting any effort toward is Khamisa. Granted, you started a lot of focus on Khamisa, but if you're going to throw a blanket statement about all lurkers, you better damn well start poking at them all.

I disagree with this. Pressuring all the lurkers at once doesn't really work because there is no credible threat of a lynch. If we focus on one and try to put serious pressure on them, we send the message that there is actually a chance that we will lynch people who are not contributing.

And besides that, Khamisa, as ODDin already mentioned, has been active lurking, which is very different from simply not posting much. I realize that much of it happened before you replaced into the game so you might not understand the extent of it, but for a lot of D1, she was saying very little but seemed to post pretty quickly after people mentioned that she was not contributing.

I won't attack lurkers, but I am all for attacking people who have little focus but have lots of comments out there, ie: KDub or Kise.

This seems a bit inconsistent with the part I quoted above, where you say the only person I have put effort toward is Khamisa. If that is the case, I would define that as "focus".

And though you might disagree, I would bet almost anything that at least one of the lurkers is scum. There's just too much benefit and not enough downside for a scum player to not lurk when there are 3-4 other lurkers in the game.

[Kdub]

@ TOWN

In light of this observation, what are thoughts on MCD?

Don't have time for a detailed post, but to answer this, I agree with you that he has been tunneling you and trying to dig up anything he can to build his case, BUT I believe this is a town tell, just based on my experience.

I will be somewhat busy until Tuesday, but not entirely absent.

[Kdub]

Kdub - I didn't feel zer0's reasoning for voting dejkha was up to par. That was before I knew they were brothers.

You initially thought Zer0 was town after his initial vote for dejkha, but changed your opinion later to thinking he was scum. What caused you to change your opinion? Zer0 had posted basically nothing substantial in between the posts where you switch your view on him.

[Kdub]

OK I'm back and caught up. AT had asked me to give my opinion on his post 1023. I find his explanations to be reasonable, and MC appears to have dropped some of the arguments that AT had addressed. I think this is a case where MC found a few inconsistencies that could possibly be construed as scummy, then went back and looked for anything else he could find to apply pressure and see how AT would respond. MC raised some good points that forced AT to explain certain actions, but I feel that: 1) the initial case was interesting and raised questions, but did not necessarily imply AT was scummy even if true, and 2) AT's response to those questions has been logical and consistent IMO.

With that said, I disagree with AT that MC's tunnelvision is scummy. In most of the games I've been in or read, players who focuses on a single player and goes to great lengths to dig up anything and everything they can find usually end up being town. Maybe your experience has been different, but I can't help but see MC's persistence and attention to detail as anything other than a town tell.

[Kdub]

MCD targetted me D2 and had to backtrack in order to FIT an idea around me.

Just keep repeating that, AT. Someone's likely to believe at some point, right?

MC, I think you're starting to reach for anything you can to convince people that he is scum. You admitted in 1024 that he answered your questions and it was just a matter of deciding whether you believed them or not. Since then, you have not mentioned your original case, but instead are trying to discredit the manner of his defense rather than the defense itself. For example:

If they're such weak points, why are you continually pushing back so hard? You've been going bananas from the get-go for such weak points that can't be used. Why not let the weak points speak for themselves? Clearly everyone else would see that they're not usable, right?

Regardless of whether your points were actually weak or not, what matters is that you were able to get a decent wagon going against AT, indicating that there were others who did not think they were weak. If he doesn't defend himself, he looks bad since it appears he doesn't have good answers for your questioning. If he defends himself, he faces accusations like this one. It's not a good way to catch scum (attack a player, then accuse them of being too defensive when they respond) because if you think they are suspicious, you will subconsciously change your threshold of what is "too defensive" such that you will conclude they are scum far more often than is warranted. I think you should take a step back and look objectively at your case before you continue to push forward after he has addressed your points.

You cannot just look totally at what zer0 said, but what others said as well. Others noted that zer0's immediate vote indicated frustration. I can't remember, but I probably noticed this on a reread and saw the reasoning, and it made sense.

This explanation is a bit unsatisfying since it's also the likely excuse you would have come up with if you didn't have a good reason for your change of opinion, but I'll give you a chance to expand on it. Can you mention specific posts that convinced you and why? Also, what is your opinion on the MC-AT debate and Alduskkel's D2 behavior so far?

[Kdub]

this lurker hunt is going to cause us to LOSE

I'm VHEIMENTLY OPPOSED TO A KHAS LYNCH.

Andytony should be lynched.

KTHNX BAI

How about giving reasons for lynching AT? You agreed with MC's case on him, but he's addressed a lot of those points. Do you have new ones to bring up, or issues with his response?

[Kdub]

Pablito: Explain your vote?

lobstermania: Not really liking the tone of your last post. It seems to suggest a bit of certainty that AT would be a mislynch. I'm not accusing you of anything yet, but I felt I should point it out.

Khamisa: I felt you were active lurking because on D1, you seemed to post quickly after prods were requested on you, and were posting in other games but not in this one. That seems to me like you were following along but intentionally not saying anything. If you really are town, then please share your opinions on the rest of the players. Who do you suspect, who looks town, etc.

[Kdub]

Pablito:
Can you explain your main problems with the case on Khamisa? In post 1077, you lump her in with me and Kise as players you suspect because of our language, but you seemed to ignore her and focus on me and Kise after that. Do you not find her suspicious anymore?

[Kdub]

Pablito:
I have suspected Khamisa since midway through D1. Her subsequent V/LA did not change that. If I had started going after her when she was V/LA, you might have a point. You can't expect me to switch targets just because my main suspect goes V/LA.

And besides that, she is no longer V/LA, yet still has not given her opinion on most of the players in the game, which I had asked her for.

I also noticed that you didn't really answer the question: what is it about the case against Khamisa that you dislike? You talk about how it was a waste of time and we should have gone after other players, but do you have any objections to the reasoning behind it? You indicated earlier that you found her to not have genuine languange (along with me and Kise). Do you still feel that way?

[Kdub]

Pablito:
While Khamisa has been my main suspect, I also indicated suspicion of Alduskkel, and gave my opinions on the MC-AT debate. To say that I have "never bothered to let yourself look at anyone else in depth" is a stretch. Yes, I have looked at Khamisa more closely than others (don't you do the same for players you find most suspicious?), but I do not feel that I have focused on her to the exclusion of all other potential suspects as you seem to imply.

Now that I look back my posts so far today, I'm really not seeing your problem here. In post 852, I give my reasons for suspecting Khamisa since lobstermania asked. After that, the majority of my posts actually contain as much, if not more content, about the AT-MC-Aldus argument than about her. Trying to be as objective as I can here, I really feel that there are other players (hohum for example) who have been more "focused" on a single target than I have been. You may disagree, but I am pointing out what I see and I don't know why you are accusing me specifically of being too focused.

KDub, you came right out of the gate with Khamisa, and I still don't like that wagon. I blame you for the focus on Khamisa taking up the entire day. I'd blame hohum bringing up focus on AndyTony, but at least that was productive.

The AT discussion was only productive because AT actually responded and defended himself...

Khamisa:
Can you please give some opinions on the other players? I asked a while ago, and you haven't answered. If you are town, then share your views and contribute instead of just claiming that you aren't lurking.

lobstermania:
Can you explain your previous post to hohum a bit more? I didn't like the way it came out, as I mentioned earlier. It almost seems like a bit of a slip-up, saying that hohum is offering "other choices to mis-lynch with" as if you have knowledge that AndyTony is town.

[Kdub]

Kdub - I promise to post opinions. Don't let me forget this!

Since you are the largest wagon at the moment, it would be much more in your own interests rather than mine for you to get on this fairly quickly.

I quickly skimmed the JR game where she was scum, and I agree that her play seems similar to her play here. Khamisa, do you have links to examples of games where you were town and you feel you played in a similar manner to this game?

[Kdub]

pablito: Slightly less inactive than pablito, yet still not approvable gameplay.
Chinaman: Where is he? I didn't like who he replaced, Zer0.
AndyTony: Similar to the Jungle Republic I

thought

we were talking about. Town there, so probably town here.
Kise: Don't remember the last time he posted. Strange for Kise.
ODDin and lobstermania : lurkier versions of MCD and Kdub.
MCD , d3x, and Kdub: Active, scumhunting folk.
Aldusskel: OK. Somewhat unsure of himself, which is OK - I'd expect town to be less certain than scum.

Among those, who do you think is most likely to be scum? What did you think about the debate between AndyTony and MadCrawdad earlier?

Also, I will ask again: do you have examples of games where you were town and you think your play was similar to your play in this game? Your play in that JR game where you were scum seemed pretty similar, so I want to see if it is really scum meta or just general meta. Does anyone else who has played with her before think that she plays this way as town?

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
I initially suspected Khamisa on D1 for obvious active lurking, and when I went back and did an iso read of her, I saw that she had very little contributions for much of the game, except for one instance where she suspected Zer0 (who you replaced). Her suspicion of Zer0 didn't make sense, because she had claimed he was town right after he had voted for his brother (dejkha) for replacing out, yet later thought he was scum based on the same reason. Her explanation afterwards was that she changed her opinion because she agreed with other posters suspecting Zer0 at the time, which is a plausible explanation, but not a very satisfying one (since it makes her look like she is following the crowd). Based on her last post, she doesn't seem to have any real suspicions of other players at the moment. As was pointed out before, her play in Open 148 (where she is scum) is very similar to her play so far in this game (fence-sitting, lurking, having to be asked questions several times before she answers, half-heartedly defending a suspicious town player D1 but not really speaking out to prevent their lynch) and has failed to provide links to any games where she has played in a similar manner as town.

My secondary suspect is Alduskkel for his early D2 actions (following other people's cases with little contributions, flip-flopping), but I think it will be easier to analyze his play on D3 when we have more information on the alignment of a couple players.

If we lynch Khamisa and she is scum, I will look more closely at hohum (obvious reasons), d3x (not willing to commit a vote despite suspecting her), and pablito (chainsaw defense by attacking me and Kise?) as potential partners. If she is town, I will probably suspect lobstermania (still not comfortable with his recent posts) and Kise (lurking, not clear reasons why he is voting Khamisa). I'll probably look more closely at Aldus regardless.

AndyTony and ODDin seem town to me. Same with MadCrawdad, though he has been a bit silent on Khamisa, despite her being the largest wagon. I think MC has been the most motivated scumhunter in the game so far, so I'd be interested to see how Khamisa would respond to detailed questioning from him. No read on Chinaman yet.

[Kdub]

AndyTony:
I saw your earlier question. I've been a bit busy lately, so the frequency and length of my posts haven't been as high as I would have liked. Basically, I see you and Alduskkel arguing more over semantics and interpretation of things you have said rather than actual scummy behavior. In a way, Aldus is acting more similar to the way he was on D1 with his recent attack on you. His multiple shifts of opinion and playstyle have me suspicious of him, but not enough to warrant a vote at the moment. Long story short, I don't agree with his case, and given the nature of his arguments, I think you have responded in a reasonable manner.

Khamisa:
I will be sure to read those links over the weekend and give my opinion of your play in them.

[Kdub]

Any reasons

why

you disagree with the case, Kdub? Because I'd like to hear them.

Mainly because I think much of it is based on interpretation of AT's wording (the semantic issue again) as opposed to his actual opinions or actions. Take your argument about his "lie" for example. Even if you are right, it's not like the "lie" was of the nature that creates a suspicious inconsistency in his argument, nor does it really reveal anything about his true intentions or opinion. I think your argument is more about making AT look bad (in terms of good/bad play) rather than making him look scummy (if that makes sense).

[Kdub]

Aldus:
If I am understanding you correctly, your case against AT is summarized in post 1253. The first two points had already been raised earlier in the day, and AT had already responded to them. The point about him ignoring your question about d3x and "lying" about saying d3x acknowledged misrepresenting him has been the focus of your argument with him the past few pages, and I maintain my stance from my previous post: even if you are right about it (and to an extent, I think you are), I don't think it is a significant inconsistency or lie that makes him look scummy. I view it as more of a "technical" inconsistency (AT thinking d3x acknowledged that he misrepresented him, even though that was not necessarily clear) rather than an inconsistency in his opinions.

If there are other points you have tried to make that you think are new (not from MC or hohum) and significant, please state them clearly and I'll share my views on them.

Khamisa:
I had completely forgotten that you were a part of that alternating 9P game I replaced into, though I came in after you were already dead. From what I remember based on my read-through when I replaced in, you did appear to be a bit of a lurker in that game as well, so I'll grant you that much. I'll check it out again and look at the other games as well.

[Kdub]

Chinaman, I think you need to explain your vote pretty quickly. You just made AT the vote leader with the deadline coming up soon, so I would expect you to have a good reason for doing so.

Khamisa:
I checked out the links you posted and did a quick skim, here are my thoughts:

Open 150 - In my opinion, your play as town is quite different than your play so far in this game. You ask a lot questions and form concrete suspicions. Not consistent.

Open 153 - Your play here is somewhat similar to this game up until post 150, where you do a big wall of quotes and analyze other players to justify your vote. You haven't put in anywhere near this amount of effort in this game. You even had to be asked multiple times before you even came up with a suspect list.

Open 149 - My second read-through of this particular game (since I replaced in later), I thought this was probably the one (out of the four you linked) where your play was most similar, although you did have stronger suspicions backed up by some reasoning than you do here.

Open 146 - You lurk quite a bit here as well, but I find your reaction to pressure to be different. You seem to respond more strongly to a wagon on yourself, and try to sort out who on your wagon is scum. So far, you have not done so in this game.

Overall, I didn't see anything that would convince me that you are more likely to play the way you are as town than scum. Also, I have a tangentially related question (I'll explain when you answer): what is your definition of active lurking and why do you feel that you have not met that criteria?

[Kdub]

Kdub: I feel like active lurking is posting but not really contributing. That's kind of a general definition; however, I believe that different people can be active lurking differently. I do realize that this looks like active lurking, but I don't feel like it is in my opinion.

The reason I ask is because I noticed in one of the games you linked, you accused another player for active lurking, and you even did so earlier in this game (post 227). Why do you feel that those players were active lurking by your definition, but that you were not? Is it because you weren't posting much at all (straight up lurking), or because you think you have been contributing?

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
Do you not like the case on Khamisa just because meta is a part of it? What do you think about her lurking and lack of solid contributions and opinions?

I'm very much liking how the end of this day is shaping up now. Much much more productive in my eyes.

What has changed that made you think it was an unproductive day to a productive one? Are you no longer suspicious of Kise since you appear to agree with his scum list?

[Kdub]

Chinaman, in 1355 you said this (bolded parts added by me for emphasis):

I don't like meta cases being a good reason for voting someone, and

I don't like the Kham case

because every game is different, and people can adjust their play style at anytime (especially if past wasn't working out so well for them). I also don't like that Hohum (whom I think is scum) is lurking/not around and still nobody thinks this to be ridiculously scummy. Because I think he's scum, his 'vote me not kham' threw kham into the spotlight even more. It's actually a very smart play because

if kham turns town (which I think she will)

, he looks like town because he defended town.

Then in 1372 you say:

The funny thing is kdub (and others) is

I have never said I don't like the case on Khamisa

. I have only stated that I don't put as much (or any really) faith in a case mostly built around meta. If you all have a scum read on kham, then by all means, lynch away. She was in the lead and still is after my unvote (which I already said/implied was planned when I voted AT in the first place) and

I have no problem with her lynch

. I have stated that I don't like lurkers. Hohum (who has my vote) is the biggest lurker in this game thus far in my eyes. He has my vote. If he were not here, then next runner up for lurker is Kham. Don't let the previous statements let you try and say that I only want to lynch lurkers as that is not the case, but I joined this game late and Hohum's actions or lack there of make him scummy. Same could be said with Kham. I will not throw my vote on her now even if with her lurking and added meta case make her look a little more scummy than hohum in your eyes, I could honestly see them both being scum. Unless something happens before deadline that puts neither kham nor hohum as the lynch candidate, I will leave my vote where it is. If votes flip flop even more before deadline, and it takes my vote to lynch Kham over AT, Ald, or anyone else that I have seen actively talking and attempting to scumhunt, I will change to her no problem. All in all, I guess

I'm just not as confident as the rest of you voting her that she will flip scum, but I do think her actions are near the top of the scum food chain

. To give you a better idea of where I'm coming from, let me list those I think scummiest so far. The 3 I have in mind currently are Hohum, Kham, and Pablito. These are obviously subject to change as more info is brought forward through discussion.

These two posts (particularly the parts I have bolded) appear to be flat out contradictions. Explain please.

[Kdub]

I'm interested to see whether hohum is still going to keep up his D2 play now that we know Khamisa was scum. I think there's a pretty good chance that one of hohum or Chinaman is scum, but probably not both since Chinaman actively tried to put hohum back in the spotlight after he had been lurking. I'd probably lean toward Chinaman at this point for his inconsistent opinion on Khamisa. I started to feel a bit less suspicious of Alduskkel toward the end of D2 because I thought his play was looking more like his D1 play when I felt he was scumhunting, but I'm still keeping an eye on him.

I'll wait to hear from hohum and Chinaman regarding Khamisa's flip and their current opinions before placing a vote.

[Kdub]

I don't have major issues with Chinaman's list, except I would probably put MadCrawdad more on the town side because I have liked his play so far. I'm not entirely comfortable with lobstermania because it feels like he hasn't really been doing much. However, he got on the Khamisa wagon fairly early D2 and stayed on, even when there was an opportunity to jump on AndyTony and get him lynched instead. Pablito is an interesting possibility. I read neutral on him for most of the game, but now that I go back and look over his posts in isolation, he seems to resist going after Khamisa while still vaguely indicating suspicion of her. In a way, the reasons to find him suspicious are pretty similar to the reasons to find Chinaman suspicious, minus the contradictions.

Mod, can you prod hohum?

Prodded.

[Kdub]

I have nothig to add.

Vote: hohum

Hohum is going to have to be lynched sooner or later if he keeps playing this way. If he is town, the scum would never kill him while he is such a huge distraction, and I don't like the town's chances if he were to survive to an endgame lynch-or-lose scenario, regardless of his alignment. Plus I think there is still a better than random chance that he is scum.

[Kdub]

Aldus, given that you say you don't think Chinaman and AndyTony are scum together, can you list who you think are the most likely scum partners for each? I think that would go a long way to clearing up your opinions here. Do you see any reasonable scenario where they are both town?

Regarding hohum, if he is unwilling to participate or replace out, what does everyone think we should do with him? Personally I think it's best to get rid of him sooner rather than later, even though I realize it may be a sub-optimal (though probably still better than random) lynch.

[Kdub]

Unvote

for now since it looks like hohum may be coming around.

hohum, are you willing to start answering questions and play the game again? What specifically made you think that Alduskkel is scum? Do you still suspect AndyTony? What are your opinions on the rest of the players?

[Kdub]

Aldus, given that you say you don't think Chinaman and AndyTony are scum together, can you list who you think are the most likely scum partners for each?

Chinaman: hohum.
AndyTony: I'll have to think about this one, actually. Maybe lobstermania or pablito (see below).

I'm not really seeing lobster/DRKitty as scum right now. lobster got on the Khamisa wagon pretty early and had several opportunities to leave it and get Andy or you lynched instead, but stayed on board. I've been considering pablito as a possible scum partner with multiple people, but I don't have enough on him right now to say that he is scummy.

Right now, I'm not really seeing Chinaman-hohum as being all that likely a pairing. At the time Chinaman replaced in, hohum was clearly getting away with his non-participation (there was general annoyance toward him, but no votes), so I don't really see Chinaman coming in and trying to drag hohum back into the spotlight as a move he would make against his partner. I also don't see you and Chinaman as a likely pairing, despite my individual suspicions of both of you. That leaves you-hohum as a possible pair, or one of you, hohum, and Chinaman paired with someone else, who I suspect could be pablito or Kise.

Since hohum has gone back to active lurking, I think we need to decide, as a group, what to do about him. There is less direct evidence on him than on others, but do you really want to put the game in his hands if he survives to the endgame? What does everybody think we should do with regards to hohum?

[Kdub]

DRK:
Pablito is on my list of plausible scum, but I don't find him more suspicious than Aldus or Chinaman at the moment. When you finish reading the rest of the game, maybe you will see why. I'll also give pablito a chance to respond to your case before I make a more solid decision on him.

Alduskkel:
You never really "went after" Khamisa very seriously at all. You followed my opening vote on her during D2, but very quickly switched to AndyTony. You went back to Khamisa later when she had 4 votes (you put her at 5) and nobody else had more than 2. That seems to me like bussing when it looks like your partner is very likely to be lynched.

Mod: Would you be willing to replace hohum if all players requested it?

I don't believe there is anybody in the game who wants him to keep playing if he's going to not contribute to this extent.

I don't like to find a replacement unless it's completely necessary, especially since I'm sure there aren't many people willing to replace into a 60-page game.

I'm not going to replace hohum if other players request so. The only way I'll replace him is if he requests it himself, or he breaks an activity or conduct rule.

That said, if somebody continually refuses to participate, they will be replaced.

Due to input from the List Mod, the crossed out part is no longer true.

[Kdub]

That said, if somebody continually refuses to participate, they will be replaced.

Has hohum not reached that point yet? How close is he?

He's cutting it close... I've given him a warning.

[Kdub]

DRK and hohum:
What is your opinion of Chinaman's inconsistent opinions near the end of D2? I'm feeling OK with his play otherwise, but that was a huge sticking point for me that I can't help but see as major scum points.

DRK, is there a particular reason you find Alduskkel to be town? What do you think of his flip-flopping on D2?

Still waiting to hear pablito's response to DRK's case.

[Kdub]

DRK:
That's a fair answer, and I found Chinaman's most recent post to be pretty well thought out. I'm not ready to say that I don't suspect him anymore, but his D3 play has been mostly productive so far.

Alduskkel has moved up to top suspect on my list due to his lack of good answers regarding his interactions with Khamisa and backtracking on his early HoS of AndyTony based on weak logic. He has said that he expressed suspicion of Khamisa in the posts he mentioned. My opinion is that his suspicions never went beyond superficial questioning and generalizations, and the times he did vote her, he quickly jumped onto the AT wagon shortly after. That is my interpretation, and if there is nothing else he can say in his defense, I'm comfortable placing a vote.

Vote: Alduskkel

Still interested to hear from Pablito once he gets around to posting. I've thought a bit more about DRK's case on him and I'm starting to think he may be on to something.

[Kdub]

There's not much to say. Although I'm pretty sure I never unHoS'd AndyTony, thus I can't have backtracked on it.

In post 1455, you said:

I already stated that it was kind of silly of me to think that Khamisa-AndyTony would really work that well.

That sounds like you backed off on your opinion of AndyTony as scum. My impression of your behavior is that you want to make him out to seem scummy, even if the evidence doesn't support it. If you are town (which I have strong doubts about), you need to take a step back, look objectively at your reasoning, and not push cases that don't make sense.

pablito:
What is your opinion of Alduskkel's behavior? I know you put him on your scum list a couple posts ago, but you didn't seem particularly satisfied with that. Can you share your opinions of his play?

[Kdub]

Unvote

Going to think about Al's claim a bit. If he's scum, he could be trying to out a power role on his way down. Still, I'm leaning toward having the real JK counterclaim if Al is lying.

[Kdub]

The one con I was thinking of is that if Al is lying, he has basically sealed his fate if the real JK is killed at any point in the future since they will be revealed as the JK. Therefore, if the real JK does not counterclaim immediately, they could remain hidden while we scumhunt in other directions and still be able to out Al at any point in the future.

However, I think I agree that there should be a counterclaim now if he is lying. If there is none, then we have a confirmed town with a doctor still in play, leading to WIFOM for the scum regarding their night kill. If there is a counterclaim, we lynch one of them, and if they are the JK, we lynch the other tomorrow. In that scenario, there would still be 6 players left with 1 scum. Those are still pretty good odds. So yeah, the real JK should counterclaim if Al is not the JK.

I am not the JK btw.

[Kdub]

AndyTony:
I think that potentially sacrificing the JK to lynch scum if Al is lying is worth it. If he is counterclaimed, we may still end up lynching the scum today and have our JK alive and confirmed. We have a 50% chance of ending up in a situation where we are left with 5 town and 1 scum, and 50% chance of ending up in a situation with 7 town and 1 scum (assuming no doc saves). Also, it creates less WIFOM for the town and more for the scum if Al is confirmed as the JK, since the scum will want to kill a confirmed town power role but he could be protected by the doc. My opinion is that everyone should say whether they are the real JK or not. Worst case scenario is that we end up in a 5v1 on D5, which still favors town.

[Kdub]

I think enough people have claimed not-JK at this point that the rest need to follow suit. Alduskkel is right that if someone counterclaimed him, we would almost certainly lynch Al first based on his behavior up to this point. Since nobody has countered yet, I am inclined to believe him, but it still would be good to confirm him by having everyone else claim JK or not-JK.

I'm going to be somewhat busy the next few days, but I'll try to do a reread of pablito, Chinaman, and hohum before the deadline. Assuming Al is cleared, I'm looking toward one of them for today's lynch.

[Kdub]

Alduskkel is confirmed JK now. I don't think it's productive to argue over his play anymore.

Aside from his inconsistencies and erratic play at the end of D2, Chinaman has appeared fairly pro-town so far on D3. His arguments appear thorough and consistent, and he has gone after my two other suspects, hohum and pablito. I'm not convinced enough to say he is likely town, but I do not think I will be voting him today. I will probably be able to form a stronger opinion of him after seeing some more players flip.

I don't really like pablito's post 1537, where he tries to make a case against Chinaman by admittedly trying to interpret his posts under the assumption that Chinaman is scum. I don't think it's particularly useful to do that unless you also look at his posts under the assumption that he is town, and compare the two viewpoints to see which seems to make more sense. Post 1617 regarding Alduskkel seems a bit odd, since he avoided sharing opinions on him (saying he hadn't read him yet) until after it looked likely that Al was the jailkeeper. I don't know if I would call it outright scummy, but definitely convenient for defending a player

after

they have claimed a town PR.

hohum appears to have gone back to his lurking ways, and his case on Kise appears to be based on his personal opinion of Kise "sabotaging" the game, whereas he (hohum) was just trying to stay out of the way. The only thing about a hohum lynch is that the town isn't going to get as much info out of it as we would from a pablito lynch. I had thought he might have been getting back into the game around the time he got into his argument with Kise, but it's pretty clear he's never going to participate to the extent that the town will need him to if he is going to survive until the endgame. I'm going to fall back on my opinion that we can't afford to keep him around, and he may very well be scum anyway.

FoS: pablito

Vote: hohum

[Kdub]

Maybe I'm paranoid, but the timing of hohum asking for a replacement seems really off to me. I mean, here he is, having refused replacement several times before, and when he DOES ask for replacement:
1. The top mislynch bandwagon, me, has totally disappeared.
2. He's now the top lynch candidate.
3. There are only 2 scum left and
4. Both power roles are still alive, and one has been confirmed but still can't be killed.

I had the exact same feeling when he asked for replacement. However, I think it would be bad to lynch a player who hasn't even had a chance to say anything, so let's not quicklynch just yet. I'd like to hear dcorbe's opinions, maybe he can provide a new perspective on certain players.

I'll try to reread Kise sometime today or tomorrow, but right now, I don't really see him as scummy.

[Kdub]

Guys, dcorbe is hohum's alt. He essentially replaced himself, probably to get the votes off him. My vote is definitely staying on him.

Regarding Kise, I found the exchange between him and hohum to be pretty genuine, but I think lynching hohum/dcorbe first will provide better insights.

I apologize again for my lack of posts lately. My content in all my games have suffered, but I should start to pick it up again soon.

[Kdub]

I am modding a game in which hohum is a player, and he made a comment to another player about how dcorbe is his alt. It took me a few days to see it because I haven't been following closely other than doing vote counts. I asked Crazy if I would be violating the rules before bringing this up, but he said it was OK.

I'm with Chinaman. If hohum is town here, I'm never letting him in any future games I mod and would strongly consider not playing in one with him again.

[Kdub]

I'd like to hear saberwolf's opinions of the others before making a decision on him/pablito. DRK's death certainly does put the spotlight on him, but Alduskkel is right that there is a lot of WIFOM involved.

After hohum flipped town, I took another look at Kise because of the argument between the two of them on D3. Despite the fact that hohum was town, I actually found myself siding with Kise's point of view for much of it. I'm getting a slight town feel from him. AndyTony, can you elaborate on your meta case against him that you mentioned at the end of post 1698? If you have found large differences in his play depending on his alignment, that may very well change my opinion of him.

I said that I liked Chinaman's play on D3 more, but I'm pretty conflicted on him overall. At the start of D3, I would have bet a ton that at least one of Alduskkel, hohum, or Chinaman was scum. Alduskkel and hohum are now confirmed town. Yeah, things change, but it's tough for me to accept that none of them are scum after all the suspicion surrounding them. I'm definitely keeping an eye on Chinaman today.

I've also been getting a feeling that maybe MadCrawdad has been getting too much of a free pass. I think he has asked a lot of good questions and his play seems pro-town enough, but he was fairly silent on Khamisa even when she was the largest wagon, and his targets (AT, lobstermania, Kise) have all been players that I felt are/were town. I (and others) probably need to start paying more attention to him.

Current opinions:
Alduskkel - confirmed town
AndyTony - probably town
Chinaman - slightly suspicious
saberwolf - suspicious because of pablito, but I'll wait to hear from him before passing judgment
d3x - leaning town
Kise - neutral/leaning town
MadCrawdad - leaning town

[Kdub]

I've also been getting a feeling that maybe MadCrawdad has been getting too much of a free pass. I think he has asked a lot of good questions and his play seems pro-town enough, but he was fairly silent on Khamisa even when she was the largest wagon, and his targets (AT, lobstermania, Kise) have all been players that I felt are/were town. I (and others) probably need to start paying more attention to him.

That's fine, but IMO, you've kind of given easy passes to a few folks. I can see the reasoning for you feeling that AT could be town, and lobstermania is now confirmed town. But Kise?

Maybe I'm too suspicious of others when I play the game (I find it a more sensible way to scum hunt), but how could you possibly get a town vibe from Kise? Even if you're not getting a scum vibe, how can you possibly say town?

Perhaps you are right about giving passes to others, but I got the feeling that sometime during D2, when you were asking a lot of probing questions and suspicion was focused on AT and Khamisa, the town (myself included) started to assume you were town and never really considered you in our suspicions. I feel that assumption has carried over into D3 and now D4, when maybe it shouldn't be such a foregone conclusion. For the record, if I had to bet on your alignment, I'd still say town. For now, can you explain why you never really said much about the Khamisa case? You made some comment earlier that she wouldn't respond to your questioning anyway, but shouldn't that have been more reason to pressure her?

As for Kise, I don't see anything especially suspicious about him. When he unvoted Khamisa and went after pablito, Kham was still in line to be lynched. Had his unvote actually caused AT to take over as the vote leader, then I would probably find that move more suspicious. Also, if he really wanted to save Khamisa, he would have voted AT instead. Another reason is that I am suspicious of pablito, and I think it's unlikely that both pablito and Kise can be scum because of their interactions throughout the game. Obviously if pablito/saberwolf is proven to be town, my opinion could change. If there are other specific aspects of Kise's play you think are suspicious and would like me to comment on, please bring them up.

Kise:
I said that I thought one of hohum, Chinaman, or Alduskkel could be scum, and if that were the case, you or pablito were a likely partner. This is because I felt that the others were more town than you or pablito had been up to that point. I started suspecting pablito more when DRK made his case against him and pablito started to stall when pressed for answers.

[Kdub]

MadCrawdad:
I am not "declaring" Kise town by any means. I don't see a strong case on him and I get a slight town feel from him at the moment, that is all. There is no clear threshold for thinking someone is town or not unless they are confirmed through some game mechanic (like Alduskkel for example). Aside from that, opinions on someone being town/scum tend to span a continuous spectrum, and I place Kise near the middle but slightly on the town side of that spectrum.

Chinaman:
Who is your top suspect at the moment since you no longer suspect pablito/saberwolf? Also, do you have links to your meta of d3x that suggests he plays differently as town or scum?

[Kdub]

FoS: Saberwolf

In addition to pablito looking suspicious yesterday, I don't like saber's last few posts. In particular:

I think Kdub's case was not the greatest, but it had some merit to it. I smell discrediting tactics here to save his scumbuddy.

This had already been mentioned earlier in the game, but I did not ever make a case on AndyTony. It was a mistake on Khamisa's part (she was called out for it), and now you are making the same mistake. You didn't catch this on your readthrough?

reading discussions between zero, AT and Khamisa, I place them as the three scum. They were trying to discretely bus.

Again, there was a discussion about this earlier between Alduskkel and AndyTony, and it was pretty clear that AT, Chinaman, and Khamisa is an unlikely scum team. I'm not liking your "too much information" excuse either. You replaced in knowing exactly how long this game was, now you are threatening to quit when people point out your mistakes?

Shouldn't we, while we still have them both, have the doctor and the jail person claim? That way, doctor can protect jail, jail can protect doctor, and jail can attempt to stop a night kill every night. At worst we have 2 town and 1 scum by the end, and the we know who to lynch. If it was down to four you'd simply no lynch.

If the JK protects the doctor, the doctor is unable to protect the JK because he will be roleblocked. The doctor definitely should not claim unless he is in danger of being lynched like Alduskkel was yesterday.

Some questions for Saberwolf:
Can you quote where you think AT, China, and Khamisa were bussing each other and why you interpreted it as bussing between scum?
What are your reasons for suspecting AT?
What was your opinion of pablito's play before you replaced him?

[Kdub]

screw this. i dont want to add another town loss to my sig.

Mafia is a team game.

[Kdub]

In the one game I've played with saberwolf, he was scum and he tried to play the inexperience card to get the town to think he was just making newbie mistakes. It's possible this could be a similar ploy with him claiming "too much information" to cover his slipups, but I have no experience playing with town-saberwolf to know if he has acted in this way before. Anyway, I support his lynch for the same reason I supported hohum's lynch: that even if he is town, the scum will never kill him while he is being such a distraction, and it would be bad for the town if he made it to the endgame. I'm willing to hammer when people say so but I'll give people a chance to post any further thoughts they have today.

Alduskkel:
I modded Open 170 and saber was not in that game. Does he have an alt I am unaware of?

[Kdub]

If you guys refuse to lynch me, I have no choice but to remain and start scumhunting then. Give me another day, day and a half and I'll start posting some actual content.

This line bugs me a lot. You have no choice but to start scumhunting and posting content? Why did you not just start out by doing that in the first place? I almost feel like you are trying to reverse-psych us into not lynching you now that a couple people have stuck up for you.

But if you say you are going to start scumhunting and contributing, then go ahead and back up your words. Convince me that you are going to start helping the town rather than making excuses or being a distraction.

Kise:
Do you find saberwolf's mistakes to be genuine? Some of the stuff he's posted (me making a case on AT, AT and China being scum together) aren't just minor oversights, they are fairly major points that were discussed and that I have a hard time seeing how a player who claims to have just read through the game would miss.

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
First, if saberwolf actually is frustrated town, he might self-hammer and end the day on his terms rather than when the town is ready for the day to end. Second, he has claimed that he will start making actual contributions, so I want to give him the opportunity to do so. If he does not back up his words, I will indeed vote for him. Finally, there are still questions out there that he has yet to answer, so I think he should be pressed to address them so we have more information to work with later on if he ends up being lynched.

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
Why did you not address MC's last post? He raised a good point about what could be interpreted as a possible scumslip from you, so I would think you would want to clear that up as soon as you can.

I recommend that somebody unvote saber for now to prevent an "accidental" quickhammer by anyone. There are things to discuss today before we push a lynch through.

saberwolf:
Still waiting for those contributions you said you would start making.

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
The problem I have with a lot of your defense is stuff like this:

you can all choose to view my play as noob scum and that I somehow just keep making scum-slips that I don't see...or, you could believe me.

You are basically conceding that you look suspicious to the rest of us and have said scummy things, but your defense is based on "you could believe me". You aren't really getting at the reasons why you are suspicious in the first place and explaining why those reasons are wrong. Also, your reasoning on d3x's voting record is not going to convince anyone to believe you. You said he was scummy because of his voting record, but when he pointed out that you and he have the same voting record, your reasoning for why that doesn't make you scummy as well is "I know I'm town"? Maybe you are, but your job is not to convince yourself that you are town and d3x is scum, it's to convince everyone else. Overall, I think the recent attacks on you are justified.

In other news, saberwolf posted plenty in other games since his last post here. Pretty convenient for him to start lurking and back off on his claim that he would scumhunt and contribute once Chinaman started drawing attention away from him. I think it's likely one of him and Chinaman are scum, but probably not both based on their interactions so far.

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
I thought near the end of your long post, you were suggesting that d3x was scummy for voting you, but maybe I misinterpreted. Regardless, I think that you can't just sweep aside the case against you by making concessions that your play has been scummy. What if someone who is actually scum were to do that? Should the town just believe them, as you are asking us to do? It's not about putting a "town spin" on everything you have done, it's about being honest about your opinions and clarifying your intentions if someone interprets your words in a way that you did not intend. Just saying, "yes I have seemed scummy but I am town and you should believe me" does not accomplish that, even if you actually are town, because you are not addressing the reasons why you have said the things you did and are just generalizing by saying it is your playstyle.

saberwolf:
The deadline is in a week, so I suggest you get on that pretty quick. If you still have nothing a few days from now, I am going to vote for you.

[Kdub]

saberwolf:
Will you be able to post your full breakdown within the next couple days so we have a few days before the deadline to discuss? The first part of you analysis seems genuine enough, and I think you put some effort into it, but the question still remains, why weren't you doing this from the start? Why the slipups and frustrated behavior?

I'm also particularly interested to hear what Chinaman thinks of your analysis posts. I don't see myself voting for anyone other than one of you two today.

Kinda ruined it for me. I was interested to see how CM worded it, based on the claims I read. It was interesting how many times zero claimed, plus how he claimed each time. I wanted to see how CM worded it. Plus, on the very unlikely chance CM claimed doc for some reason, that would have been very helpful. But yeah, that's all it was for.

Not sure exactly what you were looking for here. What could CM have possibly said in a vanilla claim that you would have found suspicious?

[Kdub]

It's getting close to the deadline and saber had claimed he would post the rest of his analysis today and hasn't. He also didn't answer my question about why he didn't start out by playing this way in the first place. I feel like he could be stalling, and I'm kinda liking Chinaman's last post with evidence against pablito. That doesn't clear Chinaman IMO, but I'm thinking saber is a better lynch at the moment.

Vote: saberwolf

Saber, it's up to you to convince me otherwise with the rest of your analysis.

[Kdub]

saberwolf:
Sorry, not buying it this time. I didn't vote you before since I wanted to give you a chance to contribute. You said you would scumhunt and contribute, but you stalled multiple times with the deadline looming, now you're back to self-voting. I think you either had nothing further to contribute in the first place and tried to stall until the deadline arrived, or you didn't think it would be enough to save yourself and you are trying the "I give up, lynch me" gambit again in desperation.

[Kdub]

saberwolf, the main problem I have seeing you as town right now is that your erratic play makes no sense as town. You have demonstrated, in a few isolated posts, that you clearly were willing to put some effort into reading and analyzing the game. But if that was the case, as it appears to be, why did you appear to give up and self-vote not once, but twice? If you were willing and able to play in a productive pro-town manner, why did you not do this from the beginning? The first time, maybe I could accept that you, as town, might have been frustrated and saw no way out of being lynched, but once you had a chance to cool off and start making contributions, you reverted back to self-voting as soon as I voted you to put you in the lead again. Why would a town player who wants to help the town want to do that? I see it as a desperate gambit, especially since you backed off both times when Chinaman started drawing suspicion away from you. It worked for you the first time, maybe you think it will work again.

Also, you appear to be trying to appease MC by voting for AndyTony. If you really thought he was the best choice for a lynch, why was your vote not on him in the first place? Why did you need MC to point out the confusion between your opinions on AT and Chinaman before you switched?

All of the above is just what

you

specifically have done. Throw in pablito's play and I'm feeling pretty good with my vote right now.

[Kdub]

Kise:
No lynch makes no sense. Right now, the debate is over whether saberwolf or Chinaman is more suspicious. If one of them is scum, they would never kill the other, so we would be faced with the same situation tomorrow. If we mislynch today and the scum kill a vanilla at night (leaving us with 6 tomorrow with the doc still around), I would consider a no lynch then, but definitely not today.

Regarding your comment about my activity, I'm a grad student so my amount of free time tends to fluctuate quite a bit from week to week, though this semester is particularly bad. Although I may never make the long posts that AT makes, I don't feel that I've been particularly inactive in this game though.

Again, he just replaced into the game and took the time out to read, although he couldn't retain info. AtE works in this case because he was willing to lynch himself and, if he's mafia, wouldn't that leave his partner amongst 6 others? Hard odds to win, especially with jailkeeper and doc around. I think its genuine [emotion]. I'd at least give SW credit (if he's scum) to be smart enough not to leave his partner hanging against this many odds.

This assumes that he actually intended to get himself lynched. I think it was a gambit (that has now worked multiple times) and that he never had any intention of self-hammering. He's asked people to lynch him, and every time, he backs off and votes whoever is in the lead (first Chinaman, now you).

d3x, can you summarize your reasons for voting Kise? I don't see him anywhere near as suspicious as saberwolf or Chinaman at the moment.

[Kdub]

It's getting close to the deadline, so I don't know that anything will change, but I think it's a mistake to not lynch either saberwolf or Chinaman today. Maybe Kise will end up being scum, which I guess would make me look bad, but I do not find him particularly scummy. I'm sticking with my vote.

MadCrawdad:
Lurking itself is not really a tell to me, but Khamisa was active lurking, which is different. She was only posting after people requested prods or questioned her activity level, was posting a lot in other games but not posting here, and generally evading questions and accusations. It was her active lurking that caught my attention and made me go back and look at her more closely. Do you see the difference between that and simply not posting often? Hope that clears things up.

Also, I don't know what you mean about me "easily" calling people town. I've also called several players scummy at various points in the game (Ceph, Kham, hohum, Al, Chinaman, saber). I'm not sure what you are trying to imply here.

[Kdub]

With Zero, he didn't even attempt to pass himself off as a contributing player, even when there was some attention focused on him. On the other hand, I felt that Khamisa was intentionally trying to avoid attention. I just didn't see Zero's play being more likely to come from scum than town.

I'm still not really understanding your point with me saying people are town. I explained earlier that town-scum is a sliding scale with plenty of grey area, but you seem to be implying that I made a blanket "town" statement about some players that put them all at the same level. For example, I feel that Kise is slightly town, but to say that I "gave him a town card" is misleading because it implies a clear dichotomy between town and scum, which is not true. Is your issue with me the fact that I have had town reads on certain players when you felt it wasn't warranted, or that I have had town reads too often compared to scum reads?

[Kdub]

MC:
I think getting "town vibes" is closer to calling someone neutral than calling them town. Maybe that's where we disagree.

[Kdub]

Some quick thoughts:

I am almost certain that AndyTony is town now. He has now been one of the main contributors to both scum lynches, and it was his push against Kise that got him lynched instead of China/saber.

I still think saberwolf acted scummy yesterday, but he did put the lynching vote on Kise, which I'm not sure he would have done as scum since he would have been leaving himself as the lone scum in a game where he was already under a lot of suspicion. I will have to reevaluate him, but he looks better in light of that.

Alduskkel is confirmed town. That leaves MC and Chinaman. Between the two of them, Chinaman has been far more suspicious for reasons that were discussed yesterday.

Vote: Chinaman

Chinaman, what are your opinions of saberwolf now that he was a part of the Kise lynch? You implied in your last post that if Kise was scum, then MC also is scum trying to get attention off of him. Do you still think that is true? Why would voting you make a difference that close to the deadline when it wouldn't even tie you for the vote lead?

I'm going to try to reread Kise in iso to look for possible links.

[Kdub]

and now Kdub, who hasn't said jack about me till now is all for my lynch

Although I suspected saber more than you yesterday, I've had you at or near the top of my suspect list for most of the game. I can easily find quotes if you would like. This is completely false.

Both Kdub and I were voting for a now confirmed townie at the end of yesterday. Yet today starts with Kdub voting me over SW WITHOUT the knowledge of what Ald did last night. Why wasn't his vote on me yesterday too? Nothing new happened except SW finally got on Kise (which imo looked like bussing even though he was under suspicion). Would it have been dumb for SW to do that as scum, yes, but he wasn't scum now was he?

Yes, it would have been dumb for saber to do that because between the two of them, saber was far more suspicious to the rest of us. If the two of them were scum, Kise would have had a much better chance as the lone scum in the endgame. That is what made me hesitant about voting saber again today, and I explained that in my last post which I guess you didn't read.

@ everyone:
With saberwolf confirmed town, I think I have an idea that could guarantee a win for the town. The only thing about it is that it relies on AndyTony not being the last scum. I feel pretty convinced about him as town, so if everyone agrees with that, I will explain.

[Kdub]

Actually, after thinking about my plan more, we don't even need to assume AT is town. OK, here's the plan:

Ald is the JK, China and saber have claimed vanilla. I am vanilla. That means either AT or MC is the doctor. Whoever it is, they should claim now. That person will be confirmed as the doc. Obviously if there is a counterclaim, we lynch one of them today and the other tomorrow and the town wins.

- I will volunteer to be lynched today.
- Ald blocks Chinaman, AT/MC protects Ald at night.
- If someone is killed, then obviously AT/MC (whoever is not the doc) is the scum and we lynch him tomorrow.
- If China is scum, or if the scum decides to not kill, then we are left with 5 players with 1 scum between AT/MC (whoever is not the doc) and China. Lynch one tomorrow and the other on D7. Town wins.

Sound good?

Unvote
Vote: Kdub

[Kdub]

I think you guys (China and saber) are making my plan out to be more complicated than it has to be. Can you describe a scenario in which my plan, as I outlined above, will not work?

I know that there are variations on the plan (who gets lynched today, who gets blocked, etc.), but the idea is the same and I laid out one scenario to keep things simple. The important thing is that Al knows who to block tonight.

AT:
If the scum kill someone tonight, then we know who the scum is because China will have been blocked by Al, so it can only be you/MC, and one of you will be the confirmed doc. The other must be scum.

[Kdub]

I have read your post AT, and I'm still not seeing your argument.

Right now, Al and saber are confirmed town. If the doc claims, he will also be confirmed town. Let's say for example that you are the doc. That means the remaining scum is either me, MC, or China.

I am lynched today. Al blocks China, meaning China can't kill tonight. If ANYONE is killed tonight, MC must be the scum because everyone else is either town or roleblocked. It doesn't matter who is killed, or whether we are in lylo tomorrow. We know who the scum is.

If nobody is killed, then there are two possibilities. One is that China is scum and could not kill because Al blocked him. The second is that MC is scum and chose not to kill. However, no kill tonight means there are 5 left tomorrow, which is NOT lylo. We can afford to then lynch one and then the other on D7.

If you are not the doc and it is MC instead, then switch your name and MC's name in the above.

If that plan is flawed, can you describe a specific scenario in which it would not work?

[Kdub]

saber, it is NOT a coinflip. If there is no kill tonight, there are 5 left tomorrow with ONE scum among them and 3 of them confirmed town. That means we choose between two players who can be scum, but we have two lynches to use. How is that not a guaranteed town win?

[Kdub]

saber:
The scenario you just outlined is exactly what I had originally proposed. I think we are in agreement here.

Unvote

to prevent any mishaps before Al and MC have had a chance to weigh in. Once we have a claim and Al is clear on what to do, I will put my vote back on myself.

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
Yeah, I said before that there are multiple variations of the plan, but let's stick with what I originally said to keep things simple. MC/AT claims, lynch me today, Al blocks you tonight.

I'm starting to think we've caught AT as the last scum, but let's stick with the plan just to be completely sure.

AT never answered me on this, but the question applies to everyone just so we know this is going to work: Can anyone describe a specific scenario in which this would not guarantee a town win?

[Kdub]

I think we should give AT a chance to counterclaim first. If he does not, then we can proceed with my lynch.

[Kdub]

I'm trying to look for any holes in what Al just proposed, but I can't find any. I think it works.

Vote: AndyTony

[Kdub]

GG guys. This game started out somewhat boring, but ended up being really fun. Thanks for taking over the modding Crazy.

I was able to catch Khamisa pretty early, but AT had me completely fooled, and Kise had me somewhat fooled. Had AT managed to kill the doctor on N4, I think he could have won the game because both Chinaman and I were convinced he was town for pushing Kise's lynch. Bussing Kise at that point was a very bold move.

I did see through saber's gambit, but I didn't figure it to be a town gambit.

I'll post individual player comments later when I have more time.

[Kdub]

Some comments on individual players:

AndyTony - Great play, you were the most town player in my eyes for most of the game, and I'm pretty sure if it had come down to an endgame where I would have to pick between you and any other non-confirmed player, I would have picked wrong. I think if you hadn't bussed Kise when you did and let saber get lynched instead, you could have pulled this one out.

Alduskkel - I thought you were pretty suspicious early on until you claimed, but I think you made pretty good night choices that helped us a lot.

MadCrawdad - You played very well, and the main reason I started to get a little suspicious of you at one point was because you had been so pro-town but were still alive for some reason. You paid a lot of attention to detail and caught stuff that the rest of us missed.

Chinaman - Most of your posts were good and clearly had effort put into them. I found you suspicious for some contradictions you made and your excuses for them. I think if you eliminate some of those and take a little more time before posting rather than shooting from the hip, you would have appeared much more pro-town.

saberwolf - Well, I've now played two games with you and I still don't think I've seen your "real" playstyle. Your gambit was pretty risky, but it ended up working out. Just don't expect me to believe you are town in future games by pulling it again .

d3x and Kise - Had trouble reading both of you, but got a somewhat townish feel. I guess Kise lurked just enough so that it didn't look like he was avoiding contributing, but enough so that he never drew a lot of attention.

Others - ODDin played well and I thought he or MC was likely to be killed at some point because of their pro-town play. hohum . Khamisa was a bit too blatant in evading questions, but I'm not sure any other case was strong enough for me to be convinced otherwise about her anyway. I don't remember enough of the others to really comment.

Great game guys, nice playing with you all.

I'd also like to take this time to promote my large normal, Mafia 103, which is taking signups right now. It would be great to see some of you again in that game.