Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[MathBlade]

Hi! Catching up now. Anyone wanna TLDR me?

I have about an hour before I have to nap and take roommates to the airport.

[MathBlade]

I know Faker's getting replaced, but I'll poke at posts that bug me or otherwise are noteworthy anyway.

LMAO okay yes that makes a lot more sense

idk i know if you’re town you want to not be a paranoid mess but things like this make it impossible

Elaborate?

It does make sense for scum-ffery to want to try to get out of that keep

this sounds like you know catboi and Faker are town.

I'm grateful for not being swapped into the Wall, but I don't think it rules out a 1-1-1 distribution entirely.

Isis is scum at... i want to say 80% confidence, which for me is very high. this is the outcome i expected if demona wasn't swapped out, though that doesn't mean i'm any more prepared for the next phase.

feel free to vote for isis

i would be super happy to play as confirmed (noone is

really

going to argue that i stayed in the game as a scum to, like, manipulate the other games or whatever, right?)

I may be reading into this post, but encouraging someone to vote in your elo so soon after the day starts is hmm.

Tempest, thoughts on absinthe swapping in? My impression is that she'd likely be scared of you in a similar way that she would be scared of Cabd, but if she has to go somewhere I think this arrangement makes a lot of sense (Keep is 99% a loss if she stays with me, might think knowledge of you is an advantage/can be exploited even if reverse is true too)

Just going to point out that I wanted to go to the Keep with Tempest. Which doesn't really negate this as a reason to scumread me, but w/e.

On a similar note my confidence in Faker in the first phase was mainly done to see how scum would react to it, my anticipation was that in a world where Faker truly is town, scum would basically never let us stay together because I'd all but promised a vote there.


Additionally it makes more or less perfect sense in a world where skitter is town for scum to move her here because she's highly unlikely to vote for me.

This makes as much or more sense than the scenarios I was thinking about being moved out of the keep. I felt like the keep is the place where being misread wouldn't be harmful in itself. It would be down to my getting accurate reads.

i'd also like to point out that between Isis and demona at the wall vs. the configuration at the gate, does scum Chara choose to duke it out against Isis?

Your thoughts on this, Isis?

1258 is very specific to a behavior and is not at all a read of me, and you were very explicit about not having any reads you felt strongly about.

I mean, whatever, I meant for it to look that way

1359 also isn't really true. It's about who town has to pick between. skitter is probably more afraid of my scumplay than any other player at the table. I'm not good at reading her and have got it reversed basically every time.

I don't follow. Skitter had explicitly stated a scumread on me at multiple points in the previous phase. I'm speaking from the perspective of knowing I am town (obviously).

skitter swapping to keep as scum with absinthe is borderline nonsensical in my eyes unless you think they did it hoping people level themselves, but it'd be probably outright -EV in both instances. skitter being scum with coral also feels fairly unlikely. She's not averse to extended theater with teammates but typically she'd need rapport with the teammate and the way the back and forth with coral went didn't feel s/s

I don't think scum-me would have sat still for being swapped to the gate. it would depend a lot on the make-up of the team, though.

i think she's been playing defensively since we started. it'd be the easiest win in a minigame for her to miselim me, though i do think her desire to go where i go is also a genuine "i want to play with Chara" feeling and not a ploy, just one that happens to also work out with her goals.

i was really hoping for this outcome because i think if Isis and i

are

both town we can find each other, even if demona if scum is being exceedingly town to me and Isis both. unfortunately the game has in a way just started.

i got sidetracked but my main reasoning is this is an ideal situation for scum Isis. i started considering it seriously in 236, it feels like she's been playing to me to make me easier to handle. (and that Coral read is very... i don't know, obvious?)
when i said i didn't want to be in a minigame with her and i just hoped she was town, she brought up the time i was rightly suspicious of her as scum. a way to make me more confident i can read her.

i haven't reread with this in mind re: the timing of demona's locking in Wall.

"defensive" wouldn't really be a word that comes to mind to describe Isis's play although I see your point about 236 I guess, will review it at some point. Had lingering suspicion of Isis for gut reasons but

with the clarity of distributions things are coming into focus more so not as sure.

I don't get what you mean by the bolded?

I think absinthe's whole spiel about being okay with going to the keep and being able to control her own destiny there was very town and strongly favor her being town over coral

Strongly disagree. I don't think it made sense to go to the Keep with me under those circumstances, and she hit the wrong notes with me literally from start to finish yesterday.

Start was very awkward/wonky and she went full deer in the headlights when I got started. She similarly got caught off when the switchup to the narrative you're describing had essentially no effect.

Welp. Don't know what much of this is in reference to. From my perspective, the only headwinds I've been fighting are all the misreads, and trying to figure out which ones are faked.

...Do you mind walking me through why I'm in the Keep as scum, along with why I swap out someone that I am 100% sure I can snow in absinthe?

I'd like to think this confidence is fake!

...Do you mind walking me through why I'm in the Keep as scum, along with why I swap out someone that I am 100% sure I can snow in absinthe?

in this game keep is the most difficult location to play as scum and there's a decent likelihood you have a higher confidence level than anyone else in pulling it off and winning here

absinthe had expressed the possibility of voting for me and she is much more valuable as a potential mis-elim elsewhere than staying here if that's the case

I thought I had mitigated the mislim potential with my keep pick. The reasons why I was moved out of the keep in the first game were murky to me before the keep flips. given Briar-scum, I figured it was to prevent pooky from deciding to vote me.

Thank you. This gives me some quick places to focus in on.

Has anyone analyzed the group split process?

[MathBlade]

Heya math
Not sure if this is gonna be a great replacement from my pov tbh

No such thing long as you have fun.

Why do you think my replacement is or isn’t great?

I could be a clone of you what makes me different?

[MathBlade]

Tammy is ic'd at gate
Current consensus is ffery is scum there

Catboi/faker were both leaning towards voting me in keep, which is good

And wall is the difficult one

Who is ffery? I don’t see them in the player list.

And with it being three individual games I will be resetting all reads.

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Each minigame uses the following rules:
At the Gate, one Nutcracker Soldier player is chosen by the Minions of Summer overnight to be publicly confirmed as a Nutcracker Soldier. The Nutcracker Soldiers must vote to eliminate the Minion of Summer to win.
At the Wall, there are no special rules. Nutcracker Soldiers must vote to eliminate the Minions of Summer to win.
At the Keep, Nutcracker Soldiers must vote on one player. If that player is a Nutcracker Soldier, the Nutcracker Soldiers win; otherwise, the Minions of Summer win.

So IC in game one. So we have a 1v1 in the first game

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I'm ffery.

Noted. Why do you think you’re scumread?

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GUMDROP GATE

[0]

absinthe:

[0]

Coral:

[3]

Not voting:

absinthe, Coral,

Tempest

WAFER WALL

[0]

demona:

[0]

Isis:

[0]

Chara:

[3]

Not voting:

demona, Isis, Chara

KRAMPUS KEEP

[0]

MathBlade:

[0]

skitter30:

[0]

catboi:

[3]

Not voting:

MathBlade, skitter30, catboi

MOD NOTES

• The day will end in (expired on 2022-12-31 09:19:18)

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane

So 1v1 between Absinthe and Coral.

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FINAL VOTE COUNT

[3] Gumdrop Gate: skitter30, Coral, Tempest
[3] Wafer Wall: demona, Isis, Chara
[3] Krampus Keep: Faker, absinthe, catboi

Tempest is automatically assigned to the Gumdrop Gate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-12-20 19:59:56).

MOD NOTES

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane[/size]

We know Tempest is town. So first mini game clear.

We know that demona Isis and Chara contains a town and me, absinthe, catboi contains a town.

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As the soldiers bickered back and forth, at times nearly coming to blows over the questions of loyalty, a small dot approached from the distance. A carrier-partridge, with a note hastily attached to its leg.

It landed on the edge of the tower, shaking off the small bits of ice that had formed on its wings from the sheer cold. Quickly, the newest nutcracker grabbed for it, scaring the bird as he pulled away the paper. The partridge let out an indignant noise before flying away, clearly uncaring as to whatever response they might have.

"The captain is manning the Gate!" he stated, willing to show the others what the note said as to not rouse their ire further. "We can at least trust them to be the most noble of soldiers, never to turn against the Winter Court."

"And," another soldier said snippily, yanking away the note for himself, "that we are not to use the tunnels underneath the lands. With the fear of treason, and soldiers already going to and fro... how are we ever to figure out who started this all?"

"Well, that's not a problem, is it?" the newest soldier snapped, looking pointedly at all of their chilled guns. "I don't think any of us are going to be running off without brain freeze! So just get on with it -- fill up all the empty space in your hollow head and figure out that I'm on your side!"

—

absinthe is now at the Gumdrop Gate. skitter30 is now at the Krampus Keep. Tempest is confirmed as town.

Then with this swap it has to be a one scum in each section.

@Skitter — I am trying to figure out all the possible combinations that exist

Then compare against D1 tomorrow.

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FINAL VOTE COUNT

[3] Gumdrop Gate: skitter30, Coral, Tempest
[3] Wafer Wall: demona, Isis, Chara
[3] Krampus Keep: Faker, absinthe, catboi

Tempest is automatically assigned to the Gumdrop Gate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-12-20 19:59:56).

MOD NOTES

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane[/size]

We know Tempest is town. So first mini game clear.

We know that demona Isis and Chara contains a town and me, absinthe, catboi contains a town.

I'm saying that with the swap these conclisions are not necessarily correct

Those conclusions preswap must be correct.

The rules state that if any group contains 3 scum at the end of day one town wins.

Since a swap occurred that must be true.

FoS Skitter.

[MathBlade]

What do you mean sigh?

The premise at end of Day 1 if a hood contains all scum then scum lose.

Therefore if a hood doesn’t contain all scum it contains at least one town.

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So then we know that either
A) Scum had 1-1-1 preswap or
B) Scum had 2-1-0 post swap (can be any order not writing that out due to time)

We know final is 1-1-1 so sorting the swapped players should swap the mini games.

[MathBlade]

post swap? you mean pre swap?

Preswap

I am typing fast on my phone

[MathBlade]

If we can sort those two players alignments then we can work backwards to what swap existed

Then knowing what distros exist the worlds become very very small.

[MathBlade]

GUMDROP GATE

[0]

absinthe:

[0]

Coral:

[3]

Not voting:

absinthe, Coral,

Tempest

WAFER WALL

[0]

demona:

[0]

Isis:

[0]

Chara:

[3]

Not voting:

demona, Isis, Chara

KRAMPUS KEEP

[0]

Faker:

[0]

skitter30:

[0]

catboi:

[3]

Not voting:

Faker, skitter30, catboi

MOD NOTES

• The day will end in (expired on 2022-12-31 09:19:18)

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane

So absinthe was put in the top mini game with the IC.

Given that absinthe is ffery and skitter are both top tier players, I am tempted to say that they’re the same alignment. Having two top tier players against the IC who is unknown (but also might be top tier) would be how I would do it if T&S.

Considering Skitter went down to the third mini game where it’s an unknown of faker and hard to read Catboi

I think Skitter and Absinthe is T&T or S&S.

Given that and I am town, this means a solve of either

Catboi or Skitter scum
Absinthe or Coral scum
Demona Isis or Chara scum.

[MathBlade]

I gotta sleep now to drive roommates to the airport but if I have premises off let me know.

[MathBlade]

And math i don't really think the swap points to me/ffery being the same alignment tbh

Why not?

I don’t see why scum would make a swap that forces them to stick out.

I’d make all the games hard so winning 2/3rds becomes likely as scum.

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FINAL VOTE COUNT

[3] Gumdrop Gate: skitter30, Coral, Tempest
[3] Wafer Wall: demona, Isis, Chara
[3] Krampus Keep: Faker, absinthe, catboi

Tempest is automatically assigned to the Gumdrop Gate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-12-20 19:59:56).

MOD NOTES

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane[/size]

This is the list preswap.

Assume top is all town. Then scum would choose from a two game to add into the top game.
Given Isis and Chara and absinthe and Catboi are all good scum, taking any one of those into a top versus skitter seems a better strategy. So then likely top is not all town.

Then if top has one scum then the game could be ran as is and swaps are same alignment

If top has two scum then a scum has to leave that area. That they didn’t swap Coral out and instead swapped out skitter doesn’t really jive with that.

So it’s probably 1 scum and game run as is. Coral gut is probably that scum as I don’t see skitter scum also not swapping in like a Chara or someone to make the game a hard read for a newer player.

In essence there’s a game Tempest has the ultimate call on.

[MathBlade]

MathBlade, please try not to jump to conclusions about the game prior to actually understanding the setup. You're probably best off just rereading the game from the start and going for pure gameplay reads, and focusing on your own minigame.

We can help answer any confusions about the setup that you may have. To answer the question of if you have premises off, the answer is yes, generally.

I think everyone in this game passes a certain bar of skill at both alignments to where I would recommend against making reads based on your perceptions of their strengths as an alignment in a vacuum. More nuanced takes of how players might perceive their own ability in certain matchups could be useful, though.

I disagree with skitter and absinthe being for sure S/S. I think S/T is more likely. An S/S swap would likely be for the goal of hoping catboi and Faker turn on each other and vote the third, knowing they're more likely to do that with skitter than with absinthe. That's a possibility worth considering, but on play I think it's less likely.

Your statements that "demona Isis and Chara contains a town" and "me, absinthe, catboi contains a town" are not meaningful, because we already know that given the current groupings. demona, Isis, and Chara contain two town, because they are one group. You and catboi contains at least one town, because you are in the same group.

I like to start with what I feel the optimal strategy is. Yes, sometimes there is deviations. But then those stick out a lot more.

No matter what scum would do the best strategy to win all three games which means either A) they can win all three or B) sac one and win 2.

I do plan on reading the thread but I wanted to see if anyone found my optimal strategy pre posts flawed, which it seems like you do. It becomes a matter of if that flaw is genuine or you don’t like the Coral + Catboi team I noted it implied as a possible team earlier. (The other skitter + absinthe)

Sometimes things aren’t meant for you but meant for me so I can compare back. I am not looking to have some major massive aha insight here. There’s certain things that are suggested but that’s all they are.

By starting with facts and reducing wine makes things really fast for me, which makes me deadly town in flipless weirdly enough because scum aren’t as versed as hiding it and am rather deadly. This setup just reads like three flipless games and that’s how I am treating it.

If my relational premises are wrong it will come out on a read.

What I find really odd is both you and Skitter disagree and one of you is scum. And only one. But you disagree in different ways. Which means something is close for one of you.

[MathBlade]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

Never ever read Skitter honest as town.

Skitter has one of the best scum games on MS. And I’ve seen some doozies.

Skitter (and myself) are both top tier scum who do honest lying really really well.

I have no doubt that’s skitter’s emotion it’s a matter of why to sort her

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Sort of like if you’re told a doctor and cop are in a setup.

Barring limitations if the doctor knows who the cop is, the doc will heal the cop if town.

Then it becomes well the cop died.

Then you’re looking for exceptions (roleblock, macho, 1 shot) etc.

So in this case what is the optimal placement, then if deviations happen why?

[MathBlade]

GUMDROP GATE

[0]

absinthe:

[0]

Coral:

[3]

Not voting:

absinthe, Coral,

Tempest

WAFER WALL

[0]

demona:

[0]

Isis:

[0]

Chara:

[3]

Not voting:

demona, Isis, Chara

KRAMPUS KEEP

[0]

MathBlade:

[0]

skitter30:

[0]

catboi:

[3]

Not voting:

MathBlade, skitter30, catboi

MOD NOTES

• The day will end in (expired on 2022-12-31 09:19:18)

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane

Derp I got the C names mixed up. Rip it’s super late lol

This is why I was saving reading for the morning

[MathBlade]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

Never ever read Skitter honest as town.

Skitter has one of the best scum games on MS. And I’ve seen some doozies.

Skitter (and myself) are both top tier scum who do honest lying really really well.

I have no doubt that’s skitter’s emotion it’s a matter of why to sort her

I'm sure you have only the best intentions, but I'm familiar with skitter, and I've already taken the strength of her scumgame into account when making that read. The advice is noted but does not affect my opinion!

You definitely don’t sound like a new player.

But your date is June.

I am not alt hunting but you said you had experience with Skitter and I want to see if you’re “experienced”.

On a scale of 1 to 10 1 = newbie 10 = 400 year old wizard
Where are you on experience?

On a scale of 1 to 10 1 = gut 10 = logic where are you?

I kinda have a vibe where I think you fall but I want to see if this vibe matches

[MathBlade]

Sort of like if you’re told a doctor and cop are in a setup.

Barring limitations if the doctor knows who the cop is, the doc will heal the cop if town.

Then it becomes well the cop died.

Then you’re looking for exceptions (roleblock, macho, 1 shot) etc.

So in this case what is the optimal placement, then if deviations happen why?

Right. Well. I think reading the game to see how the decisions for groupings played out will help you get a better sense of what the possibilities for what scum believed to be optimal placements were.

I find that’s a good mid tier step.

Starting at onset you use the “replacement” bonus of fresh eyes.

Scum typically don’t account for backwards reading which is why replacements are so deadly.

[MathBlade]

My main point here is that you have not read the game and do not have a sense of the landscape of the game and people's reads and relationships to each other, so you are assuming that the swap was made purely based on the only information you have, which is the player's names.

I fairly strongly believe that what has actually happened in this game most likely had more of an effect on the choice of swap than your judgements of the relative strengths of players as town or as scum.

I generally agree with this premise, to an extent.

I find scum generally make choices with mech and relationships in mind.

If one side is entirely excluded (which seems to be the implication here) then the relationships will be why.

It’s about why scum were in my opinion suboptimal? What relationship drove that?

[MathBlade]

If the team is all relationship no mech that might drive it. But realistically probably both

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Given you have experience with Skitter (and I doubt you’d lie about something Skitter can refute) then my earlier premise of you being new based on the join date might be wrong which would throw my same alignment premise off.

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Mech is different from player strength. Your point was that absinthe and skitter are the same alignment because of something to do with player strength. I don't really follow your reasoning, so I can't exactly argue against it, but this...

Assume top is all town. Then scum would choose from a two game to add into the top game.
Given Isis and Chara and absinthe and Catboi are all good scum, taking any one of those into a top versus skitter seems a better strategy. So then likely top is not all town.

...is nonsensical. You jump to the conclusion that the Gate was not all town originally because... scum should have swapped a good scum player to play against skitter, instead of swapping skitter out? That's a leap in logic that is entirely unsupported.

It’s not just skitter out.

When I wrote this post I lacked knowledge you had some experience with some of the player base.

So when I wrote it, it was Experience v ? V ?

Which is suboptimal.

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Then absinthe (who I was told was ffery) keeps that same E v ? V ?

It’s weird.

[MathBlade]

Given you have experience with Skitter (and I doubt you’d lie about something Skitter can refute) then my earlier premise of you being new based on the join date might be wrong which would throw my same alignment premise off.

Yes, that is my point. You seem to also be thinking that Faker is new. Faker is Prism.

I don't think you should be basing anything on the premise of people in this game being ineffective or even weak as either alignment because I don't believe that's the case for anyone.

So it’s an experience thunderdome and mech is irrelevant…

Lovely.

Hi Achilles heel.

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Given you have experience with Skitter (and I doubt you’d lie about something Skitter can refute) then my earlier premise of you being new based on the join date might be wrong which would throw my same alignment premise off.

Yes, that is my point. You seem to also be thinking that Faker is new. Faker is Prism.

I don't think you should be basing anything on the premise of people in this game being ineffective or even weak as either alignment because I don't believe that's the case for anyone.

So it’s an experience thunderdome and mech is irrelevant…

Lovely.

Hi Achilles heel.

Essentially, yes!

I don't think mech is irrelevant, though. Mech plays a role here, it's just very closely tied to the context of dayplay that you'll only find by reading. I think that exact co-mingling of mechanics and dayplay is part of what makes this setup especially interesting.

I don’t know if we have played before but you sound familiar.

In case we haven’t though, I am on the spectrum so I prefer starting with facts like vote counts or mech because my internal emotion calculations are different (not flawed per se just different). And I like figuring out why scum do things. Co mingling things will be … rough.

I noticed you skipped over my 1-10 questions. Was that intentional? If it was you don’t have to answer I was just curious if it was or not.

[MathBlade]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

Never ever read Skitter honest as town.

Skitter has one of the best scum games on MS. And I’ve seen some doozies.

Skitter (and myself) are both top tier scum who do honest lying really really well.

I have no doubt that’s skitter’s emotion it’s a matter of why to sort her

I'm sure you have only the best intentions, but I'm familiar with skitter, and I've already taken the strength of her scumgame into account when making that read. The advice is noted but does not affect my opinion!

You definitely don’t sound like a new player.

But your date is June.

I am not alt hunting but you said you had experience with Skitter and I want to see if you’re “experienced”.

On a scale of 1 to 10 1 = newbie 10 = 400 year old wizard
Where are you on experience?

On a scale of 1 to 10 1 = gut 10 = logic where are you?

I kinda have a vibe where I think you fall but I want to see if this vibe matches

Here it is if you missed it.

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I don't think they would be useful to answer and I'm not particularly interested in answering them anyway. I have a completed game as both alignment if you would like to read meta.

As for facts, it's true this setup is lacking in them. In the worst case, you could just sheep Tempest!

I have a phrase conf town != conf right.

But you’ve hinted if you’re scum Tempest’s reads are horrible
And if you’re town tempest’s reads aren’t bad to you

I am interested in them for my sake. People tend to be creatures of habit. A strategic player going “gut” would be alarming and vice versa. A not mafia esque player doing a wall case would be ???

Differentiations from habit brings up a why to ask for.

[MathBlade]

I don't think they would be useful to answer and I'm not particularly interested in answering them anyway. I have a completed game as both alignment if you would like to read meta.

As for facts, it's true this setup is lacking in them. In the worst case, you could just sheep Tempest!

I would like those meta when you can btw

I won’t probably look right away but only if something pings me because there’s a lot to digest

[MathBlade]

I'm not really sure what Tempest's reads are, she hasn't updated in a bit, so I don't think they factor in to my point about you sheeping.

I would say tend to lean towards logic and reason and strategy, but am at times tempted into being swayed by gut.

So mid road so if you spend most of d1 talking mech not reads probably scum
Or if you did no mech all reads prob scum

But if you balance prob town.

Not lock obviously but enough to where if you deviate ask why.

[MathBlade]

hello everyone! it's Prism's fault i'm here.

the only thoughts i currently have about the setup is that we get no flips until the first location resolves on day 2, meaning almost every important decision is made before getting any concrete feedback.
i'm not sure how much information we get from the night 1 swapping of players.

pedit: hi demona, what do you mean by 'the benefit to me locking in keep would be to force the mafia to move me or concede the keep'. do you mean you personally can hold the Keep (ie get yourself as a locktown read/find town) or something else?

I don’t like this post from it.

There’s lots of feedback from the if all three scum in one location rule.

It’s doubtful scum would risk that early as Coral said.

That leaves lots of room for feedback.

Negativity like this pings me.

[MathBlade]

I think chemistry between people will matter more for games than like "put a consensus townread in game x" because townreads can be wrong if you get them all right you win anyway. Maybe picking scummy players for certain games kind of like gerrymanders your EV though? Maybe that's more impactful.

It seems like a nontrivial setup, brainwrinkler. Which can make me worried about dayplay health.

Coral should just solve the strat and then we should play mafia

I don’t feel Coral and Isis can be teamed.

It wouldn’t be Isis’s style to directly connect herself to a buddy if she’s scum. And if she’s town by definition not teamed.

[MathBlade]

Okay nope my brain is in skim mode as I liked tried to calculate some things and it’s all….sleep

Later y’all.

[MathBlade]

GUMDROP GATE

[0]

absinthe:

[0]

Coral:

[3]

Not voting:

absinthe, Coral,

Tempest

WAFER WALL

[0]

demona:

[0]

Isis:

[0]

Chara:

[3]

Not voting:

demona, Isis, Chara

KRAMPUS KEEP

[0]

MathBlade:

[0]

skitter30:

[0]

catboi:

[3]

Not voting:

MathBlade, skitter30, catboi

MOD NOTES

• The day will end in (expired on 2022-12-31 09:19:18)

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane

One last question that’s annoying me.

Why haven’t either absinthe or you cross voted?

[MathBlade]

At the Gate, one Nutcracker Soldier player is chosen by the Minions of Summer overnight to be publicly confirmed as a Nutcracker Soldier. The Nutcracker Soldiers must vote to eliminate the Minion of Summer to win.

Based on this then whenever Tempest hammers that day ends, not when scum decide to hammer or an unknown entity does.

[MathBlade]

That game ends*

[MathBlade]

I’d like it if you all did soon ish.

Then if Tempest wants to end the day Tempest has control. Especially if there is some weird scum shit they want to interrupt.

I’d prefer if control was in Tempest’s hands when they are ready.

[MathBlade]

Done with airport drive. Gonna sleep and look at this later. Driving to airports at night sucks.

What does each of you consider the biggest “event” in day play? (Define “event” however you like)

[MathBlade]

catboi can you talk about how your Faker read developed?

Sure. I think mid-late Day 1 I started to feel no one was super obviously scum and when thatthat's the case it's usually because someone is doing a convincing job of appearing town. That made Faker a plausible suspect, but I wanted to wait and see what became of the swaps. I felt there was basically no chance scum allow a highposting town-Faker to stay in the keep. I thought the pivot against me was a very plausible scum narative arc, even if I enabled it with my play, it still suits the scum wincon to suggest going to a location with me and acting buddy-buddy only to turn on me down the line. I think mostly from there his arguments when we were actually in the keep were incoherent and seemingly not coming from a town perspective at all. I don't really want to revisit all of that if possible though.

I think your premise “There’s no way a scum team allows town Faker to stay in the keep” flawed for the same reason my “strong players should be in either space against Tempest” argument flawed.

If there was only one scum in the Keep and two scum in another, then they’d have to swap elsewhere.

Since I am about to read that though I hope there’s more to your conclusion than that. Because it sounds like you’re starting with my slot scum and how to justify it.

[MathBlade]

More sadz :/

I would conisder the big events to be:
- demona choosing wall
- chara and isis wanting to be played together
- faker putting pressure on ffery to choose keep
- daystart
- play in keep today

~

Fwiw my optimal resolution to keep is catboi voting me if town

Assuming the “Chara and Isis wanted to play together” is true (as it wasn’t corrected I am going to call it so)
Then it’s unlikely Chara and Isis were ever teamed. Given the matchup they’re in that’s necessarily true. So at least one TR’d the other.

The rest I will have to read as I get to it.

[MathBlade]

I think chemistry between people will matter more for games than like "put a consensus townread in game x" because townreads can be wrong if you get them all right you win anyway. Maybe picking scummy players for certain games kind of like gerrymanders your EV though? Maybe that's more impactful.

It seems like a nontrivial setup, brainwrinkler. Which can make me worried about dayplay health.

Coral should just solve the strat and then we should play mafia

the second sentence here makes no sense to me but it does sound very intelligent.

but i think i agree on the point that the important thing is finding scum and finding town and the rest will fall where it falls.

So the important thing is win the game then you win the game?

[MathBlade]

I'm not familiar with you, Demona.

I wanted to go to the keep last time for similar reasons, I tend to townhunt/POE most games. And I felt pretty confident I could obvtown even as an unknown alt.

I blew the unknown part with my second post. Still managed to obvtown, not that it mattered.

You said you obvTowned here. What do you make of having sus now?

[MathBlade]

This is way too fast for my brain atm LMAO

I know you're mostly joking but any game with me/you/skitter would be the biggest shitshow, but ~we'll see~

Not sure who the “you” is due to the rapid posting but the deliberate choice of me and Skitter is weird. Unsure if 3 for 3 on that.

[MathBlade]

This is way too fast for my brain atm LMAO

I know you're mostly joking but any game with me/you/skitter would be the biggest shitshow, but ~we'll see~

either you're scum and get your shot to humiliate me or we have a nightmare 3p that will ruin us both emotionally this sounds ideal to me

Apparently it’s Catboi. This makes me really sus of Catboi. Can you explain please?

[MathBlade]

It’s either Skitter scum saw the scenario and took advantage or Catboi always wanted that three way situation. So it’s a big ol bottle of wine which.

[MathBlade]

Or faker wanted this scenario
Hard to say

From an outsider’s perspective possible but I know that one isn’t true.

From your POV which is it and why?

[MathBlade]

I don't think it's a good idea to put us in a game together cat. I know you know but I don't really want to shit talk atm sorry.

Really Skitter?

[MathBlade]

This is way too fast for my brain atm LMAO

I know you're mostly joking but any game with me/you/skitter would be the biggest shitshow, but ~we'll see~

(Assuming “you” is Catboi as the thread implies)

You’re arguing that Faker intentionally made the game a shit show.

Assuming Faker is Prism, I know Prism didn’t but then combined with the other post quoted makes this a really hard sell.

[MathBlade]

It makes me wonder if you know I am town or not. After not wanting to analyze the case the last thing I want to do is vote you.

[MathBlade]

So it looks to me that the important game for reads is our game and solving it gives us the best chances of victory because then we learn about the swap.

Thoughts?

[MathBlade]

I don’t necessarily agree with that.

I think absinthe should cross vote then Tempest has the freedom to say which order they’d like the games resolved in.

I just think Tempest and mine are the most important for scumhunting because of the swap and day open.

[MathBlade]

It makes me wonder if you know I am town or not. After not wanting to analyze the case the last thing I want to do is vote you.

I don't understand, why does that statement make you question if i know you're town

You feel disconnected. Like you don’t want to figure out why the swap happened the way it did.

It’s either A) You set it up so Faker and Catboi would fight
Or B) Catboi made this world after interacting with it in the open
Or in your opinion C exists) Faker constructed this is possible

But not wanting to interact with any option or one of your own self making feels like a deliberate stall tactic. You must have some thoughts no?

[MathBlade]

Can you explain it again?

I am not following.

[MathBlade]

I feel like I am missing something as we are all vanilla except VC tempest?

So what mechanical info are you both talking about?

I know it’s probably simple but explain it like I am 5 please.

[MathBlade]

Is this a mechanical objection to the idea town!Chara revealed info that would let scum!Isis ship Chara away,

What info is being talked about? Is this mid D1 end of day one?

I am a bit behind in reading as I didn’t expect Skitter to be Stonewall Kitty.

[MathBlade]

Imho I don’t.

It feels like every avenue I have to generate reads is cut off.

I can’t generate them from optimal play.
I can’t generate them by asking questions of Skitter because she won’t answer them.

So if I can’t read someone from mech or from their thoughts how am I supposed to read them or get any sort of conclusion?

[MathBlade]

Like from my pov i was on the same page woth most people in the game
I am continuing to take the same approach
You have no context on any of this
You think i'm stonewalling

I have no way of “finding” that page.

I ask questions to get on the same page and figure out who you think scum are and get no answer. I call this stonewalling.

Only to be told you’re not but it’s valid not to answer questions? So you’re not but it’s valid

It feels extremely gaslighty

[MathBlade]

Because then if I ask questions of you, Coral, then you don’t answer them, because it’s completely valid for Skitter to not answer them, then it becomes valid for every player.

So I think that nuance needs to be explained.

[MathBlade]

And to argue I don’t have context so I can’t ask questions but the only way to get the context is ask questions it’s literally a self defeating prophecy that I can never ask questions.

[MathBlade]

I will answer your questions when i get home (later) tonight, i'm dealing with something significantly more critical irl at this moment

Saying that i 'won't answer your questions' or 'gaslighting' or 'cutting you off' you is extremely unfair and misreppy in context, especially since you can literally ask anyone else for the same context until i can get there

Then I look forward to your answer tonight.

And no, I can’t go ask another player what’s in your brain (unless you’re scum and told them lol). I asked you for a reason.

[MathBlade]

This is way too fast for my brain atm LMAO

I know you're mostly joking but any game with me/you/skitter would be the biggest shitshow, but ~we'll see~

(Assuming “you” is Catboi as the thread implies)

You’re arguing that Faker intentionally made the game a shit show.

Assuming Faker is Prism, I know Prism didn’t but then combined with the other post quoted makes this a really hard sell.

Was this to me? I'm not even calling you scum, i never said faker has intentionally made the game a shitshow. From my pov it's implausible for both catboi and faker to have created this threesome, but we're here so i need to figure out who did it

And this is the kind of thoughts I wanted. Some kind of interaction with it rather than an outright refusal.

[MathBlade]

A reason for what? What are you asking me exactly

I'm saying you can ask literally anyone else for the background context

I asked you about the day open to see how this threesome happened according to you.

I can’t ask someone else why you think something

[MathBlade]

I just think that a lot of your answers can be found by reading the game. I don't think there's anything you've said that's been ignored or rejected. It's just that if you say "Okay, the situation is either A or B. Which is it?" and it turns out there's also C and D and also none of us know and they're all valid possibilities, it's hard to directly answer your question.

I don’t think a lot of answers can be found by just a read.

That’s a good way to fall into whatever traps scum have set.

What’s better is that a person is forced to be held accountable in a consistent manner throughout.

I can’t get that if I just read then info dump.

It feels like you want to force me into playing the game how you do which is inferior for me.

[MathBlade]

I just think that a lot of your answers can be found by reading the game. I don't think there's anything you've said that's been ignored or rejected. It's just that if you say "Okay, the situation is either A or B. Which is it?" and it turns out there's also C and D and also none of us know and they're all valid possibilities, it's hard to directly answer your question.

From my POV there’s not.

Scum chose the swap. Fact.

Means they wanted either the top or bottom scenario. Fact.
It was determined top choice was NAI based on prior discussion.

If you’re also saying top and bottom are both NAI then your premise not same alignment swap is wrong.
If the bottom is AI then my questions are valid,

If you’re saying bottom and top NAI and not same alignment that’s false as an S and T or T and S would be swapped

You cannot have your cake and eat it too,

[MathBlade]

TLDR:

Premise 0: Swaps of the game are either same alignment or different alignment.
Premise 1a: If swaps are of same alignment, then top and bottom participants are not alignment indicative.
Premise 1b: If swaps are of differing alignment, then top and bottom participants are not alignment indicative.

The issue I have with you Coral is that you seem to say that you thing Premise 1b: is true, but swaps are not alignment indicative and that scum ignored the beginning of the game.

I don’t think your world view makes sense.

[MathBlade]

TLDR:

Premise 0: Swaps of the game are either same alignment or different alignment.
Premise 1a: If swaps are of same alignment, then top and bottom participants are not alignment indicative.
Premise 1b: If swaps are of differing alignment, then top and bottom participants are alignment indicative.

The issue I have with you Coral is that you seem to say that you thing Premise 1b: is true, but swaps are not alignment indicative and that scum ignored the beginning of the game.

I don’t think your world view makes sense.

Ebwop fuck my phone

[MathBlade]

Am I making sense to you?

[MathBlade]

No, I don't think thats an accurate assessment of my perspective. My perspective is that it's a difficult problem to solve. You're welcome to try, but I think there is too much missing information without any flips to come to a solid conclusion yet.

Do you think the swap is S&T/T&S? Aka alignment indicative?

[MathBlade]

To be clear, I have it mechanically confirmed that one of the slots (absinthe) is scum. That makes my perspective on this different and narrower than most others.

Okay so you’re halfway there.

Then if you think it’s an absinthe scum skitter town world. Then the swap is alignment indicative. Meaning scum had to balance the games right?

[MathBlade]

Math is catboi scum here?

I am working under Catboi Coral or absinthe you.

I don’t think both of you would be this difficult as scum but I don’t think you’d both be this difficult as town.

[MathBlade]

To be clear, I have it mechanically confirmed that one of the slots (absinthe) is scum. That makes my perspective on this different and narrower than most others.

Okay so you’re halfway there.

Then if you think it’s an absinthe scum skitter town world. Then the swap is alignment indicative. Meaning scum had to balance the games right?

See 1886 and 1887.

Why do you answer a yes or no with a wordy explanation?

Scum would have to balance the games right?

[MathBlade]

Scum have to make the games 1-1-1, yes.

They would do this based upon the information in game yeah?

Then why ignore what seems to be fundamental?

It doesn’t jive.

[MathBlade]

If absinthe flips mafia it could mean that she had to be added to gate so that gate would have a mafia.
However it could also mean that gate and keep started with one mafia and absinthe was swapped with a scum!skitter for fun.
There's no information there.

There is though.

Knowing one of absinthe or coral is mafia drastically reduces the amount of worlds.

It means we know either a relatively active player was in there (Coral)
Or a relatively inactive one (absinthe).

If you want to argue scum made a decision independent of game events that strongly points towards absinthe scum over Coral.

Is it guaranteed? No. But it’s a good indicator. Then look and see if that indicator matches. If not then scum!Coral faking an absinthe becomes likely but not without evidence.

Town goes for probable. Scum goes for possible.

[MathBlade]

If you can figure out the why you can figure out the who is how I like to play.

[MathBlade]

Scum have to make the games 1-1-1, yes.

They would do this based upon the information in game yeah?

Then why ignore what seems to be fundamental?

It doesn’t jive.

They would do this based on what would help them most as a team given the constraints of the game, yes. I went over what I think the possible situations are and what the scumteam's possible motivations would be. I'm not ignoring the swap, it is a very important factor in the game. It feels to me like I'm saying "there's nuance here and it's difficult to have a decisive answer, but it's worth considering the possibilities" and you're responding with "you're ignoring it".

Everything in every game has nuance.

You’re doing what you accused me of before. I listed possibilities from my perspective to help me catch up.

Here you just listed possibilities.

How is that not ignoring and not taking a stance?

[MathBlade]

And that’s what I am doing.

[MathBlade]

I am going to step away before I get really frustrated here but both Coral and to a lesser extent Skitter feel like they are doing word vomit for the sake of it. I don’t think they’re both scum which is puzzling though

[MathBlade]

I’m bummed about the replace outs

I wanted to ask prism why they seemed that it would be likely for me to be ic’d. There were a few times that prism said something along the lines of it being nice to have a Tammy-clear and iirc it was brought up when there was a decent amount of suspicion on me. Might be nothing, but I remember thinking it was unlikely and it was something I’d made a note about to ask.

I skimmed through yesterday here and there but mostly just to keep somewhat current. I need to work on a reread and actually read everything from yesterday. Probably won’t get that all done tonight. I have some things to finish up with today before I have some free time to get back involved.

Oh you’re Tammy? I thought Coral sounded like Tammy.

[MathBlade]

Clearly. /sarcasm

Just their strategic opening read so much like you in prior games and I haven’t gotten to where you are yet lol.

So we have a Tammy and a non Tammy Tammy which is weird.

[MathBlade]

I have a work fire on my day off. May be VLA for the rest of the day.

[MathBlade]

Tipsy math posting. Likely just reading

Everyone post a funny meme if you like please.

[MathBlade]

I quoted 33 because I wanted to ask about quarantining faker in the first game but then I decided to not flood a game that's already 90 mph but I guess I'm asking now. Isn't making a slot miserable -EV?

I think it is. It's definitely +MV, which I would prefer to avoid, even if it is at a minor cost of EV. I want this to be a low Miserableness Value game, if possible.

Faker suggested it in the previous game of this that she played, so it was on my mind that she likely would bring it up again, and I think it's more fun to let her frolick freely in the pastures of her dreams.

What's +MV?

[MathBlade]

VOTE: wall

Note to self when sober look at why Isis voted here.

(I got bored of trying to read while listening to CR. CR is winning lol)

[MathBlade]

Well we can like increase it right? I know I've had an angry orchard maybe there's like something that made you laugh recently? I'm not good at the funny thing but Critical Role has funny moments some times.

[MathBlade]

"Oh we're in the Elemental Plane of Fire, bit far from where you were. "

"I can't just refer to all of you as Bell's Hells, Bell's Hell's, Bell's Hells. "

Help #dying

[MathBlade]

That’s like not good. Are you like able to read or do you wanna reaction test me or something?

[MathBlade]

Oh okay. Then complain away if it makes things less miserable. I am just trying to make the game fun for people.

[MathBlade]

“You lot are a motley tangled mess…I love it.”

[MathBlade]

When I sing a Pokemon's defense decreases two stages

I think this is false for you Please don’t neg.

You boost your Pokémon.

I lost my inner ear when I transitioned. I am calibrated soprano but I can’t find my masc voice.

[MathBlade]

My current guess for the scumteam is ffery coral tammy

I'm not sure i particularly care where they (or anyone else) goes, i just want to try to herd them to the same spot

Aww, cute. We did it, skitter! We're all in the same spot!

Congrats that is absolutely 100% the solve gg no re (joking)

[MathBlade]

My current take on the Keep, if you're interested, is that if catboi and skitter both agree that they aren't confident in voting Math (looking that way currently), then catboi should vote skitter. I think Math (and Faker) seems the most likely to be town of the group, and I have a little bit of worry about skitter, but if catboi is town and misreading both then the game is likely lost anyway. I think Math slot is easily findable as town here (bracing for egg) and the safest option would be a vote there, but of course that's only possible if the players in the game agree. I think Math being the one to vote would be the worst possible option.

Most likely in my view is still that catboi is scum, and won't vote. Most dangerous in my view is that town Math goes rogue and votes scum if things aren't going according to his views.

I am confused by this:

You think I am town.

Rules are:

At the Keep, Nutcracker Soldiers must vote on one player. If that player is a Nutcracker Soldier, the Nutcracker Soldiers win; otherwise, the Minions of Summer win.

So you’re asking for a townread of Skitter to vote on a person you scumread, in what world do you expect scum Catboi not to hammer?

I think I am drunk because I don’t get it.

[MathBlade]

Oh well backwards but same difference

Like you’re townreading me…like how does that make sense?

[MathBlade]

I get wanting to move the game along but the easiest way for that to happen might be I vote myself. I have to ask the mod a question but I think that works. Then the only way town wins and we achieve a hammer is by hammering me.

However this is drunk math talking so maybe this is a terrible idea.

Someone tell me this is terrible.

[MathBlade]

Okay not horrible cool. I think the intent is someone to be hammered since we vote one player.

But if I vote myself it removes a lot of paranoia of derp hammer. So then Skitter and Catboi likely know what you’re saying is true that I am town versus trying to convince Skitter which much as I misread her she misreads me. And Catboi I don’t have many memorable games with but have played with them so I think that works.

[MathBlade]

It's also possible that I'm missing something too and this is a terrible idea for some reason so please don't do it without a sanity check

Hence me posting to the thread for the sanity check

[MathBlade]

Cool okay then. I am going to try again to read the thread but I am like getting nowhere while tipsy.

Probably will try again tomorrow or just say fuck it.

[MathBlade]

I get wanting to move the game along but the easiest way for that to happen might be I vote myself. I have to ask the mod a question but I think that works. Then the only way town wins and we achieve a hammer is by hammering me.

However this is drunk math talking so maybe this is a terrible idea.

Someone tell me this is terrible.

Is that legal?

Waiting to hear back but I fail to see why not?

If town you voted me, then I can’t vote me then we can’t ever win. (If you’re scum replace that with Catboi)

I see no reason we can’t go out of order traditionally.

[MathBlade]

Cool she said I could I hate phone lag. Major delay on PM receipt time.

[MathBlade]

skitter, did you forget how the Keeps works again when you asked if Math voting himself was legal?

This. I am not sure if Skitter is trying to fake a townslip or just scum here.

Me moving my vote would be incredibly silly if I was scum.

The goal of the mini game is to vote the town person.

[MathBlade]

At the Keep, Nutcracker Soldiers must vote on one player. If that player is a Nutcracker Soldier, the Nutcracker Soldiers win; otherwise, the Minions of Summer win.

If you or Catboi voted the other, then I were to move my vote then not only would that be a scum claim it would be incredibly stupid.

Needless to say like what?

[MathBlade]

(I am not scum but like what? I am glad the alcohol wore off because damn)

[MathBlade]

Ok but like her reads are too bad to look like she's solving either, abd coral looks like she is

Pedit r.e. ffery

Why are her reads bad?

Are they bad because you don’t reach the same conclusion? Or are they bad for some justifiable point?

[MathBlade]

I thought the point of the keep was to vote *someone* else you think is town, which is why i was wondering

If math is town
And votes himself

The town in me/catboi (i.e. me) has to vote him, ehich seems unideal from my perspective

If math is scum
And votes himself
Me/catboi need to vote each other, and if math switches off .... i don't understand why it's a scumclaim to switch off here

Let’s assume that I am scum for sake of argument.

Assume a vote is on you or Catboi that is not on yourself. If I then hammer you or Catboi. That says the three of us pick you or Catboi as the town of us three. I as scum would have hammered town and lost the mini game.

Let’s assume I am town. I know one of you is scum.

Again assume crossvote after my vote.

Then I know either A) scum voted town or B) town voted scum. Hammering is not in my interests as my vote is on myself. It’s much better to wait and have the town hammer me. Because then I avoid doing what scum wants.

I have no town motivation to move my vote once placed

[MathBlade]

though a crossvote in the Keep is never happening. scum has no reason to vote town in the Keep, it'd be the same as throwing. the town they're crossing with would just immediately hammer themselves and win the Keep for town.

Do you get the sense Skitter never really thought about how to play the mini game from a town POV? I kinda get that feeling.

[MathBlade]

If the point was to vote someone else and there’s only 3 people then scum automatically win the mini game lmao.

Like assume town voted town. Town won’t hammer themselves because they lose because it’s not someone else. Scum won’t hammer because it’s town. If the point was someone else we would need 4 players not three.

[MathBlade]

I thought the point of the keep was to vote *someone* else you think is town, which is why i was wondering

If math is town
And votes himself

The town in me/catboi (i.e. me) has to vote him, ehich seems unideal from my perspective

If math is scum
And votes himself
Me/catboi need to vote each other, and if math switches off .... i don't understand why it's a scumclaim to switch off here

sure but... from town Math pov why

wouldn't

he want to vote himself? he can switch from voting himself to voting who of you/cat he thinks is town if he wants to, and for town Math who knows he's town having his vote where it is is the same as having it not on anyone, except he knows he's voting town and the other town could theoretically hammer him (even if it's very unlikely)

it's not a scumclaim to switch off, but it makes sense to me for Math to say that, basically.

Unlikely vs never. If on the off chance Skitter is the town in Catboi/Skitter I take the unlikely over never every time. Skitter has been very “math is scum, math is scum” mantra. When she gets like that she tends to be politely tunnelled (versus me a loud tunneller) and she has to see I am town versus say so. If I can use a self vote to make it unlikely for never that might just give us a shot.

Granted I don’t think Skitter is the town here.

If I was a mod, I would make votes locked in these mini games as I am surprised they’re not. I find it actually would probably work better.

[MathBlade]

It’s not about solving for us.

It’s about being possible to win the game and for the other mini games.

And regarding Catboi, I am not spending as much time talking to them because they’re not screaming I am scum repeatedly. They’re not the one I have to reach out to avoid losing the game. This game is more about avoiding losing because given time I will obv Town. I just if you’re town have to find a way to reach you. Once everyone is open to the possibility that I can be town then it becomes much more balanced. This is our mini game to not lose.

[MathBlade]

Voting myself acts as like a huge “yo wake up Math is town” message that hopefully would snap you out of this tunnel.

[MathBlade]

I have to find the townie in you/catboi to win this / convince the townie in you/catboi to vote me to win

I have to solve this minigame to win it

Pedit i'm trying to snap out of it if i am wrong >.>
That isnt the way to do that tho

How do you recommend it? The only times I have really seen you change your mind is through other flips and that may not be the best option here. I am kinda trying to reach in the creative ideas bag and it’s so much simpler to assume you’re scum. Help me help you.

[MathBlade]

I have to find the townie in you/catboi to win this / convince the townie in you/catboi to vote me to win

I have to solve this minigame to win it

Pedit i'm trying to snap out of it if i am wrong >.>
That isnt the way to do that tho

How do you recommend it? The only times I have really seen you change your mind is through other flips and that may not be the best option here. I am kinda trying to reach in the creative ideas bag and it’s so much simpler to assume you’re scum. Help me help you.

so is skitter town or what?

I don’t know. I am trying to give Coral the benefit of the doubt here since she’s here posting and absinthe isn’t. Maybe she’s just trying to buddy me given she town reads me and Skitter but isn’t hard pushing you. Maybe that benefit is misplaced in Coral and it’s just Ciral and you like I thought before. But I want to see what shakes out.

[MathBlade]

@math like from my pov i don't see why scum-you cant vote yourself, so it doesnt really convince me of everything

And i'm confused why you arent trying to solve/talk to catboi
Like even if you think i'm scum i'm confused ehy you wouldnt try to verify that by making sure you do, indeed, townread the other person

@catboi does math change how you're approaching this minigame at all?

Yes scum me can. Scum me CAN do anything.

I am more focused on trying to figure out if you’re town. If you’re town then it’s a matter of digging out that hole.

I focus on triage before investigation.

If I avoid the loss (you never townreading me if you’re town) then can go for the win.

Catboi isn’t screaming “Math is scum” constantly. So if Catboi is the town there’s a possibility they will see I am town and you’re the scum.

If you’re the town it’s “oh fuck”

[MathBlade]

i mean tbf that's kinda what i feel like if you're town too
i do want to get there tho >.>

maybe it's easier for me to solve this thru catboi idk
i did strongly think it was prism-town at daystart, just a little worried i was getting snowed

That’s the beauty of it.

This isn’t traditional “find the scum elim them”. It’s convince the world you’re town.

Finding out which of you is scum is secondary to winning.

Whoever votes me causes us to win the mini game and then de facto will have solved it.

My investigation energy is best spent on other games not my own.

[MathBlade]

Catboi isn’t screaming “Math is scum” constantly. So if Catboi is the town there’s a possibility they will see I am town and you’re the scum.

So, uh, for the record, the slot you are in replaced out because I got in a huge shitfight with its prior occupant because I had been mostly convinced he was scum. I'm not saying I'm giving you no chance, but. My inclination was toward voting skitter before that happened. You can figure out whether you're okay with that or not.

Awesome. /s

No wonder the game state is so tilted.

Then it sounds like we’ve got an uphill battle on both sides not just Skitter’s.

Because I know one of you is wrong.

[MathBlade]

Catboi isn’t screaming “Math is scum” constantly. So if Catboi is the town there’s a possibility they will see I am town and you’re the scum.

So, uh, for the record, the slot you are in replaced out because I got in a huge shitfight with its prior occupant because I had been mostly convinced he was scum. I'm not saying I'm giving you no chance, but. My inclination was toward voting skitter before that happened. You can figure out whether you're okay with that or not.

Awesome. /s

No wonder the game state is so tilted.

Then it sounds like we’ve got an uphill battle on both sides not just Skitter’s.

Because I know one of you is wrong.

I mean, if you're town you don't need to have one of us vote for you to win.

No I literally do.

My skills are well…bad. The best chance we have to win is if one of you votes me.

I do not trust myself to reach the right conclusion.

[MathBlade]

Looking forward to your catch up. I’ve been stuck adulting so haven’t had time to read,

This is an elaborate prod dodge as I am unsure how much time I will have because of Christmas.

[MathBlade]

Did Chara just do a ton of pages of stock in Waffle House?

Eg with me specifically “Math seems like he’s in his town meta but it’s fakeable so wait and see if he’s informed”

Non stance stances suck.

Can anyone explain why they townread it? I don’t understand.

[MathBlade]

Town!Chara tends to be way more opinionated this is weird.

[MathBlade]

Happy holidays!

[MathBlade]

Actually rereading today's posts i think coral looks a lot more townir than she did yesterday

You’re calling Coral town.

Town Coral says I shouldn’t vote.

How do you reconcile this with the optimal strategy of I vote you?

[MathBlade]

I claim food coma and back to the airport tomorrow.

Happy holidays.

[MathBlade]

i still want math or catboi to vote me to resolve keep, not sure i'm really going to be changing my mind on that tbh

Hi. I am in the same boat. A townread player I have is suggesting I don’t vote which means I am the town which means that you should be voting me. I don’t get why you’re so insistent you’re not. If it was anyone else I would be scum locking them but you tend to scumread me for typing.

Anywho I kinda am not in an effort mood and have an airport run so yeah.

[MathBlade]

Did Chara just do a ton of pages of stock in Waffle House?

Eg with me specifically “Math seems like he’s in his town meta but it’s fakeable so wait and see if he’s informed”

Non stance stances suck.

Can anyone explain why they townread it? I don’t understand.

I don’t like how everyone but Chara ignored this.

[MathBlade]

Did Chara just do a ton of pages of stock in Waffle House?

Eg with me specifically “Math seems like he’s in his town meta but it’s fakeable so wait and see if he’s informed”

Non stance stances suck.

Can anyone explain why they townread it? I don’t understand.

I don’t like how everyone but Chara ignored this.

Ok, and like what does that imply for you ?

I'm getting increasingly sus of math

I don’t have a conclusion yet.

And yes, you’ve been “sus” of me saying I am scum but now I am “increasingly” sus, what’s next I am “incrementally” sus? (This is sarcasm. This feels fake to me)

[MathBlade]

What I can tell is that when people ignore me there’s usually a reason so I need to find that catalyst. In that there’s the reason.

[MathBlade]

You're making a lot of vague statements abt rhe gamestate with little conclusion and i don't feel like you're trying to solve or sort our minigame tbh

I already said my thoughts are best spent elsewhere. So I mean I am doing what I said I would?

[MathBlade]

Why waste my time on things I can’t control?

Either I get voted or I don’t.

Regardless I want to solve the other two so my reads remain.

Denying me reads (or spew if you think I am scum) is anti town.

Keeping focus on my game seems rather pointless.

If you and I are both town you’ll either have to break and vote me or catboi scum has to vote one of us and we hammer.

If you’re scum then it’s Catboi has to see me town.

Literally trying to solve you both is pointless.

[MathBlade]

What I can tell is that when people ignore me there’s usually a reason so I need to find that catalyst. In that there’s the reason.

If a question isnt directed at someone in particular people might just ignore it. I don't think it has any broader implications and it's reach-y that you're trying to create some

Nah. I don’t think so considering some other points. Want to talk about reach that post is.

I gotta work now sads

But keep trying to paint me as scummy I guess?

[MathBlade]

I would think there would be a change in strategy once Math comes in, though. I don't think her approach to him is at all likely to make him vote her and I think she would know that.

This. I asked her about this and the answer was pretty unsatisfactory. Then she tries to push me as scummy for doing the things I said I would do. If she thought that scummy the time to bring it up was then.

I feel like Skitter is trying to perform town vs being town.

[MathBlade]

I would think there would be a change in strategy once Math comes in, though. I don't think her approach to him is at all likely to make him vote her and I think she would know that.

This. I asked her about this and the answer was pretty unsatisfactory. Then she tries to push me as scummy for doing the things I said I would do. If she thought that scummy the time to bring it up was then.

I feel like Skitter is trying to perform town vs being town.

You're saying "this" to a point about why I think she's town and using it to say she's scum.

I think as scum she would be capable of avoiding antagonizing you and would recognize it as necessary.

I think we see the same reasoning and reach a different conclusion.

I think town!Skitter would want me to vote her. I think her approach isn’t going to make me vote her. I think that’s because she’s not town skitter so she’s not taking a town approach.

[MathBlade]

What I can tell is that when people ignore me there’s usually a reason so I need to find that catalyst. In that there’s the reason.

If a question isnt directed at someone in particular people might just ignore it. I don't think it has any broader implications and it's reach-y that you're trying to create some

The denying reads is in response to this.

Players were responding to other generalized statements but ignoring mine so I was sorting why.

It’s already increasingly difficult to play in ways I haven’t before. Ignoring posts makes it even more so.

[MathBlade]

Math: am i scum in the keep to you rn?
If you had to vote someone rn would it be catboi?

As of this second, yes and yes.

But I don’t plan on voting as established earlier. It’d be extremely antitown to do so when Catboi should be the one voting.

[MathBlade]

Math: am i scum in the keep to you rn?
If you had to vote someone rn would it be catboi?

As of this second, yes and yes.

But I don’t plan on voting as established earlier. It’d be extremely antitown to do so when Catboi should be the one voting.

Actually no

I would vote me.

The premise assumed a not me.

[MathBlade]

No one responding to me asking about Chara is in effect denying me the ability to sort it. I can’t bounce off the sounding board to see if my reads are reasonable or not.

It’s not all about you. Please review that with context. It’s this hyper defensive/self centered ness that reads really scummy to me.

I see what Coral is saying but I just reach a different conclusion here.

[MathBlade]

The original question was about the entire game ignoring the question. The entire game is not scum.

[MathBlade]

You say you're more of a logic-based person. Can you please explain the logic of how you're reaching a different conclusion here?

Premise 1: Town players have a town mindset.
Premise 2: We agree Skitter is not following a town based mindset. (2143) As Skitter is not attempting to get me to vote her she’s not doing what town Skitter would be doing.
Conclusion: Skitter is not town.

How I see your premises:
Premise 1: Scum players try to mimic a town mindset.
Premise 2: Skitter is being antagonistic which is the opposite of a cooperative mindset.
Conclusion: Skitter isn’t trying to look town therefore she is town.

[MathBlade]

I can't control the fact that nobody respinded to your statement abt chara?

I think that derivihg any meaning out of that lack of engagemt is reach-y, so i said so, yes

The original statement was around since saturday, idk how i'm denying anybody anything ?

For the tenth time is not all about you.

I was asking the game to get conversation going on a slot I had trouble reading.

Not responding at that moment until I brought it up again is bad.

[MathBlade]

Is bad for the gamestate as a whole.

It means we aren’t talking with each other we are talking through each other.

[MathBlade]

No one responding to me asking about Chara is in effect denying me the ability to sort it. I can’t bounce off the sounding board to see if my reads are reasonable or not.

It so far hasn't seemed like you have much intention of bouncing things off a sounding board and actually having any serious reassessment of if your reads are reasonable or not. You've only ever doubled down and taken any pushback as a sign that scum is trying to discredit your correct reads. That makes me disinclined to be interested in putting in the effort to attempt to do so only to result in both of us frustrated with the other and nothing actually changing.

If you would like my opinion, I don't think that the "hedging" was scummy. I'm hedging on the Wall heavily, and I'm town. I'm even hedging on the Keep by trying to sort between which of you and skitter I have fewer doubts on, despite being fairly confident that catboi is the scum. I just don't see it as a scummy thing to do here. I see it as trying to sort and give the full nuance of its opinions. I don't townread it for the post, because it could be scum hedging, but I don't see any reason to assume it couldn't come from town.

I did have some after the albeit rocky start where you and I play differently and it was literally pudding me off because anytime I tried to play in a way I am used to you’re all like “I have to play this way” so bouncing off ideas at that moment was toxic.

[MathBlade]

You say you're more of a logic-based person. Can you please explain the logic of how you're reaching a different conclusion here?

Premise 1: Town players have a town mindset.
Premise 2: We agree Skitter is not following a town based mindset. (2143) As Skitter is not attempting to get me to vote her she’s not doing what town Skitter would be doing.
Conclusion: Skitter is not town.

How I see your premises:
Premise 1: Scum players try to mimic a town mindset.
Premise 2: Skitter is being antagonistic which is the opposite of a cooperative mindset.
Conclusion: Skitter isn’t trying to look town therefore she is town.

We disagree on your premise 2. My premise is that skitter is following a town mindset. Break that down further -- what would skitter's mindset be as scum and as town, and why is her current mindset more likely to be scum?

Your assessment of my premises are also incorrect. I think that her trying to cooperate with you as scum would not be due to mimicking a town mindset, it would be to appease you and get you to vote her, because it is incredibly predictable that if she did not, you would scumread her for it. I don't believe that is actually what she would do as town, though.

I guess I don’t follow your post?

Agreeable = town mindset as town wants to townblock?

[MathBlade]

Not necessarily in this game. Town has different goals here. She as town has it confirmed that exactly one of you and catboi is scum. Her goal here is to sort between which one of you it is. If she thinks you're more likely to be scum (she does), then why would she be trying to townblock with you? She would only be trying to townblock with you if she were scum and were informed of your alignment.

That’s where I think you’re wrong.

I am town and I have confirmed one of Skitter and Catboi scum.
My goal is to ensure a town win in the keep.
I am a fallible person.
Therefore I am not assuming my Skitter scumread is correct. I am pointing out things I find scummy but I don’t have her scumlocked.

I think town her would either A) Be honest she doesn’t have any hard reads
Or B) Vote Catboi

I think she’d be constantly trying to assess my alignment rather than this hyper focused defense of my posts where she is literally ignoring context.

[MathBlade]

I think A) is much more Townie than B.

While I find Skitter scummy catboi having limited posting is also sus.

If I have to pick one town (that’s not me) it’s catboi at this point but if skitter can show some desire outside of this game it might change.

I just don’t think Skitter has a town mindset end of the day so until she shows me she does that’s where my read is.

[MathBlade]

Did Chara just do a ton of pages of stock in Waffle House?

Eg with me specifically “Math seems like he’s in his town meta but it’s fakeable so wait and see if he’s informed”

Non stance stances suck.

Can anyone explain why they townread it? I don’t understand.

I don’t like how everyone but Chara ignored this.

I ignored it because waffling is not, has never been, and will never be a scum tell in and of itself. It's a meaningless comment. How someone waffles, what purpose it serves, etc can be scummy but on it's own it's just not.

Also, it's also how I feel. I don't know your town meta very well at all, and I'm not sure I've ever seen you as scum except when you replaced me as scum years ago. I think you might be town and much of this is based on me thinking that prism just looked like they were having fun, which is not a great reason for a read, but I'm also finding this setup difficult to get reads that I feel great about, so I'm don't feel really sure about you and was hoping that through more interactions, I'd get a better feel for you.

I don't really understand why you don't want to solve your own mini game.

Because quite frankly I am bad at it. Sure it’s a 50/50 shot if I stab in the dark but other people influence that shot. I know I am town and that’s a fact. I can demonstrate that I am town much more confident that I am a 50/50 that other people can manipulate. At the end of the day, either that player believes me or doesn’t.

What’s much more valuable is being able to contribute to the other mini games and when I try to get reads on those games the conversation shifts and I feel I can’t. So then it becomes hard to assess which voices are likely right.

[MathBlade]

Catboi isn’t screaming “Math is scum” constantly. So if Catboi is the town there’s a possibility they will see I am town and you’re the scum.

So, uh, for the record, the slot you are in replaced out because I got in a huge shitfight with its prior occupant because I had been mostly convinced he was scum. I'm not saying I'm giving you no chance, but. My inclination was toward voting skitter before that happened. You can figure out whether you're okay with that or not.

Awesome. /s

No wonder the game state is so tilted.

Then it sounds like we’ve got an uphill battle on both sides not just Skitter’s.

Because I know one of you is wrong.

I mean, if you're town you don't need to have one of us vote for you to win.

No I literally do.

My skills are well…bad. The best chance we have to win is if one of you votes me.

I do not trust myself to reach the right conclusion.

Okay, but this is literally identical to the scum win condition

It’s not though?

Not trusting myself to make the right read is not the same as needing a town player to vote me because I am scum. (I am not scum that’s an explanation)

Otherwise you’d be arguing Skitter is doing the same when I literally explained why I would vote myself first. Your response of “Well Skitter is a social read”, because let’s be real here that’s what you’re saying, is just that you TR Skitter. Ergo your argument is circular.

It feels like to me you are saying “Math and Skitter did a thing but I townread Skitter because leprechauns”

There’s no actual explanation here

[MathBlade]

why don't you think i'm playing to the scum wincon again?

I guess the way you went about things didn't feel like you were? I don't have a problem with saying "I'd prefer to be voted" because that's true for both alignments but you seemed to be making attempts to discern alignments still and while that can be bluffed (and is necessary for playing this properly and looking the part), I didn't think what you were saying looked fake. I could be wrong but that's always a possibility in this game, this is just what it feels like to me.


Mathblade's approach here is flagrantly unsubtle if scum, but also if he is scum, what else could he do?If I'm town who has promised to vote correctly he can't take an actual game action because he has toeither accept you as town or say he thinks I'm town who's making a mistake.

I mean like this literally says nothing.

Replace me and Skitter in this post you get the same argument.

[MathBlade]

Math: am i scum in the keep to you rn?
If you had to vote someone rn would it be catboi?

As of this second, yes and yes.

But I don’t plan on voting as established earlier. It’d be extremely antitown to do so when Catboi should be the one voting.

...because?

The majority of the game external to myself correctly townreads me, so the town player of the two of you should be voting me rather than the other way around. Town shouldn’t be making a guess, the scummiest player should be forced to vote. This was already explained by Coral I believe earlier where she didn’t want her TRs to vote.

[MathBlade]

Chara wanting you & Faker to take a break reminds me of how it tried to make peace between my hydra and LLD.

do you think that's an AI behavior? Faker is my friend as well.

That's been evident to me!

The main difference I saw is that there's a lot more warmth to your peacemaking here. Is that AI? I'm not ready to try and figure that out. I haven't read carefully through that part of the thread yet, but I'm closing in.

i was trying to see what we had last spoken about, absinthe, and i saw it was here.
i do go for the "peacemaking" as scum in an attempt to replicate my town meta. as town i tend to let my emotions show more and have sometimes gotten more personal than i should have in a game (i'm not including this instance in that, for the record) while as scum i am pretty uncomfortable with doing so. it does still happen as these peacemaking attempts tend to have little to do with game events and more to do with disliking toxicity in games in general. if i call out behavior as scum in a "you need to stop" sense it's always my honest opinion, and only a tactic in that i'd often do the same thing as town.

i'd also rather not go over this part of the game any more than that, so i'd appreciate if you went through other avenues to read/play around me. but i understand it is game content so i won't be mad if you do choose to use it in the game given i've expounded... expanded? on it here.

I'm ok with leaving it be. I'm not sure what more I'd get from further discussion.

earlier in the game I called your tone confident and assertive, which was at the point on day 1 where you appeared to be giving me a really easy townread, when actually you wanted to see my reaction to the read. shortly after that Tammy said you seemed comfortable. And I think you also said something about feeling comfortable and liking the game.

I thought you were more comfortable (heh) with "comfortable" than the terms I'd used. I keep chewing on this but I don't know if it's a marker for either alignment for you. Tammy said you felt town for that, though.

Any particular reason you haven’t cross voted Coral?

[MathBlade]

I have a work fire to handle. May be ghostly invisible.

[MathBlade]

to be very fair catboi isn't either

but i kinda hate that math keeps blustering abt how doesn't want to solve keep so that he can focuso n the other games, but still hasn't really made much effort to solve anything elsewhere at all
at least i know what catboi is thinking

It’s not like I haven’t been trying to solve. It’s just conversation towards other games immediately gets shut down or ignored.

Or I have a super long work day. (Approaching a 13 hour snipe posting on a break may disappear)

I don’t like this characterization.

[MathBlade]

This is either going to be done for the night or turn into 24 so fingers crossed.

[MathBlade]

Okay so my work shift in theory is over tonight. So I will be here. But I am an exhausted robot so that’s a thing.

[MathBlade]

There's always more I could say if delayed forever (for example, seeing how Aisa engages with the game), but I think a flip is more valuable given the time remaining. I'll probably keep talking as long as I'm alive but there's nothing I need to say before the flip, so go ahead whenever you're ready.

What’s your solve for the two games you’re not in?

Kind of a last reads.

You too absinthe?

Don’t think I didn’t notice you not cross voting.

[MathBlade]

And why won’t you vote conf scum to you?

What’s your reads on the other games?

[MathBlade]

are you actually asking me for input that you haven't provided, yourself?

Sure am.

I already think you’re scum and Coral is town (as evidenced by the interactions we’ve had even if I haven’t outright said it)

It’s between Chara and the replace for the scum in the other game I think but that ones the harder one to solve. Chara is a hard read.

[MathBlade]

Interesting why?

[MathBlade]

See this is what I don’t like. I feel everyone is really closed off this game and it makes it hard.

I could say “I townread Ydrasse because her energy dip resonates. I could say some things but then that might spoil how I read people”

But two problems a) she’s the mod and B) I could substitute anything there.

[MathBlade]

are you actually asking me for input that you haven't provided, yourself?

Sure am.

I already think you’re scum and Coral is town (as evidenced by the interactions we’ve had even if I haven’t outright said it)

It’s between Chara and the replace for the scum in the other game I think but that ones the harder one to solve. Chara is a hard read.

do you townread Isis?

It’s not so much a townread per se more a I don’t see Isis scum so de facto town.

I don’t see Isis making that swap. Isis likes games like Pokémon and Magic and other strategy things.

I don’t see scum Isis making a move where she puts absinthe/ffery against Coral unless she thought she wins that battle.

[MathBlade]

And given one sided this battle seems between the two I just don’t see scum Isis doing that unless it’s scum Coral and if it’s scum Coral we are in a world of hurt because then almost no one else has posted any reads of note

[MathBlade]

And I really don’t see scum Coral so de facto Isis town.

[MathBlade]

1) I really don’t think so.
-> Game 1 is about voting out the scum. Subbing in a relatively inactive player versus an active player like Coral seems really -EV.

The next two options assume absinthe scum.

Assume Skitter is town -> This means a two scum world in the bottom game. Surely with how inactive absinthe has been they’d have a better position of arguing absinthe town by swapping Catboi or me up. But instead they took skitter away from the game and brought her down in a scenario that was joked about in the beginning. I don’t see a scum Isis doing that

Assume Skitter is scum -> So scum Isis swaps out a decent chance at winning the 1v1 with absinthe? For a scenario that no one seemed to want? Again this doesn’t seem like

2) Again I don’t think Isis is the type of player to do that.

Assume absinthe is scum for these options

Skitter is town -> then one of Faker aka Prism (my slot) or Catboi would be scum. I don’t see how that swap helps scum win game three.
Skitter is scum -> Then scum did a reverse where even if absinthe was mod confirmed scum ffery could drag out the loss. Instead they put the timing of games in mod confirmed hands? Again doesn’t seem Isis.

3) Assume Absinthe is not scum. It’s always possible that Coral is scum here but I just don’t find it likely. And yes I tr Coral and yes I am okay with the top game resolving. If Coral is scum she earned it. Congrats to her.

[MathBlade]

Okay that was a bit rushed and mod confirmed is a bit of a hyperbole.

It’s been a very much discussed issue of scum are drastically incentivized to not vote. Our game we must hammer town to win. So scum stall the game by doing nothing is what I mean. Town has to take the risk and by making myself as obvious town as possible then the risk is immunized as my reading skills tend to be ubmmm atrociously bad?

[MathBlade]

The rest of this will have to wait until after work sorry.

[MathBlade]

Well it’s honestly not there. I am about to have likely another 13+ hour day.

I can’t say I am confident on much when I can’t devote the brain juice to it.

I am confident in my non confidence lol

[MathBlade]

In either a town or scum Math world, catboi following through and voting skitter (when skitter is here and active and able to self-hammer) is probably a loss. He's not doing much to prevent that from happening but I guess there isn't much he can do at this point.

If catboi is scum, the vote would be placed in the hopes that Math recognizes this and panics and votes catboi, thinking that catboi is town for being the one to vote.

Pretty much this.

If Skitter is town like you said she likely doesn’t vote me no matter what I do.
If Catboi is town votes me then we win.

If Skitter is scum she never votes me anyway.

Like the game is outside of my control so I would prefer to solve in the last game of Chara and Aria.

I don’t feel Isis scum makes these strategic plays

I know you said a ton of wordy words in response and I haven’t read it

But I focus on what I can possibly control versus what I can’t.

[MathBlade]

I like have no spoons atm.

I see words. Is there a simple direct question?

[MathBlade]

Is that a question or?

[MathBlade]

Nah good luck y’all. I really hope one day you’ll both be able to read me.

I think I gave my reads.

I don’t think skitter scum will clarify as she’s on a gloat pass.

[MathBlade]

Nah good luck y’all. I really hope one day you’ll both be able to read me.

I think I gave my reads.

I don’t think skitter scum will clarify as she’s on a gloat pass.

i mean why is that your assumption rather than me being scum giving up

Because scum you doesn’t have to post.

But quite honestly I am just drained.

[MathBlade]

Good luck gotta sweep the rest.

[MathBlade]

Sorry to my scumteam I am usually loads better.

[MathBlade]

Gg all well played

[MathBlade]

Oh yeah definite thanks for moderating!

[MathBlade]

Btw that thinking Coral was Tammy was legit.

The scum PT said Tammy was in the game and all the prior games I played in Tammy was active and take charge like Coral was. I still honestly have no idea who Coral is. You not letting me do my usual stuff was super well done Coral.

[MathBlade]

Well played btw Coral You’re a really good Townie. Much as you misread me I have never been quite so effectively shut down. Town deserved this win and ffery and Prism and Isis did all they could.