Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

[Gamma Emerald]

Hello, I am here to solve the game!

[Gamma Emerald]

Hello.

VOTE: hutmeil

VOTE: BloodB0t

This is a peculiar choice, to immediately pivot votes like this.

[Gamma Emerald]

HEAL: Klick

How can you heal Klick that early? It should make it difficult for people to be convinced about your Coalition if you're RVS healing, so that doesn't seem intuitive for town.

Nevermind, I found that you can Hurt to remove it. Lol

Reckless.

Speak for yourself!

[Gamma Emerald]

I say we make a coalition of the five people who are posting.

HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: PenguinPower

Sounds reasonable.

HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: PenguinPower

kinda sus

[Gamma Emerald]

UNVOTE: Penguin

HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: PenguinPower

Just so we can move forward.

Also sketch

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg
Hello scum

What made them stand out out of everyone?

Sorry, forgot to actually respond to this
Cat.Jpeg popped in, put a naked vote on me, and otherwise said nothing of consequence. It reads an active choice to post nothing instead of the passive nothingness that others are giving. Cat is fine with how the game is currently going.

I’m not exactly feeling this
I need to read more to be sure about this but I’m feeling like there’s a good shot both scum voted for the passed coalition with 1 in and 1 out

[Gamma Emerald]

I have a townlean on Mohab, she has a very towny vibe and I liked her vote on BloodBOt after they seemed completely fine with the coalition of active players. I think that in this stage of the game most people would want themselves in the coalition, later there will be compromise, so the acceptance is strange. Hutmeils coalition now means 3/5 people needed have the same coalition 'just so we can move forward' which is sus. I think we can win day 1 but i dont think that will happen if we decide our coalition off of who posted in the first 2 pages.

FYI this is the exact reason i voted bloodbot.

that's also why I sussed bloodbot cat also mirrored my feeling on hut
definitely have a good feeling on cat.gif rn

[Gamma Emerald]

why am i in so many coalitions?

and why are they all the same...

do I townread or scumread this? I could see arguments for both

[Gamma Emerald]

Excuse me
Why aren’t I being healed
</3

Hi Mala
Who shouldn't I heal that I'm currently healing?

Penguin.

HEAL: Mohab
HEAL: Mala

VOTE: Penguin

why the vote on Penguin?

They were least Townie among those to be in the Coalition. Now it's a toss up for me between Penguin and Mala.

HURT: Mala
HEAL: Penguin

VOTE: hutmeil

I want myself, Mohab, Klick and Hyped to be in the Coalition. Penguin voted me into the Coalition and Mala didn't so that makes the last spot an easy choice for me.

Hutmeil hasn't done anything yet I townread.

I was inclined to sus the hammerer of the coalition but this actual seems like a valid hammer depending on how UD proceeds.

[Gamma Emerald]

I guess I do have a question of "why was no one else towny enough that UD felt like going for the coin flip rather than trying to go with 5 solid towns?"

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: PenguinPower

I think the other three are rather likely town

VOTE: hutmeil
I think the other is either penguin or UD rn, but hutmeil being the one voter of that coalition that wasn't in it does not reflect well on him.

[Gamma Emerald]

i should probably read the setup better

HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: PenguinPower
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Hyped

this day is too slow

I found this rather strange after Penguin questioned the coalition's existence not long before.

But I've just read Penguin in ISO and I have basically no problem with the thought process that led to him voting for the coalition.

UNVOTE:

I'm probably going to vote for Gamma. But I want Mala's opinion

oh that's also something I thought was sus while reading
Like, cat.png's point about the coalition passing super-easy is very on the nose. I think hutmeil, penguin, and UD didn't have the best reasons to vote it in, so that's where I think scum is. That's also why I voted hut: I think it's one-in one-out for scum in the coalition and also think both scum voted for it. Even before I factor in any personal feelings, that nails hutmeil as scum because he's the only one who voted for it that wasn't in it. Then there's the point that UD, Penguin, and hut all voted for it for what I deem less-than-fair reasons, factoring in one-in one-out, I again see hut as the best vote. He's the sole SR I have off-coalition, while UD and and Penguin are both in it. There's obviously work to do to sort UD and Penguin, but I at least feel like voting my certain scum suspect was the right thing to do.

[Gamma Emerald]

you seem to be largely playing like you did in PYP S_S, which while I don't gel with it at all, I'm willing to let be
Mohab is kinda just tone?
Also, you two feel less off in how you voted in the coalition

[Gamma Emerald]

oh yeah also thought mirroring for mohab

[Gamma Emerald]

[Gamma Emerald]

Even before I factor in any personal feelings, that nails hutmeil as scum because he's the only one who voted for it that wasn't in it.

Mafia NEEDS to be in the coalition or they lose D1. Town doesn't have to. Though it's nice to win D1, they have the luxury of not being in the coalition and still win the next days. So your logic that I'm scum because I didn't vote myself into the coalition doesn't hold much weight.

It's more to do with the easy pass and the fact you only voted it to "move the game along"
IN all honesty that logic is just about a scumclaim because there shouldn't be a next stage to move along to if the coalition is properly done, other than the postgame.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think scum are in Gamma, Cat.Jpeg, maybe Mala, maaaaybe UDKG
I've gone off Penguin being scum

your reads suck
I would bet the game on cat.pdf being town

[Gamma Emerald]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

Here's another way of putting it

Split scum into Scum 1 and Scum 2

There's 100% chance of Scum 1 being in the coalition

Scum 2 has a 50% chance of being one of the remaining 4 players in the coalition, and a 50% chance of being one of the 4 players outside the coalition


So now, take any random player in the coalition
We've got a 20% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a... oh, 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2

Take any random player outside the coalition
We've got a 0% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2


So 32.5% hit rate in coalition, 12.5% hit rate outside it
In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

[Gamma Emerald]

idk id this is a GOOD reason to TR penguin but I somewhat TR him because he has a similar aura to in Terminator
so in terms of voting inside the coalition, I'd go with UD

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma with the takes I'm not vibing with at all

First of all, we're voting in the coalition today. With 30% chance of hitting scum in the coalition and 12.5% chance of hitting scum outside of it, voting outside the coalition is a very poor choice.

Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are both the obvious people to sus at this point but neither of them are who should be focused on right now. Hutmeil's content that isn't the coalition vote just feels genuine to me.

All in all your catchup has a lot of empty statements and things you could easily double-back on and I read it as really scummy. But that conflicts with my townread on Hyped.

Mala I'm interested in your read on Gamma's replace-in

VOTE: Klick

This is scumclaim, Klick seems to be informed that there's exactly 1 maf in coalition, not 2.

I believe Gamma is a better vote.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I believe voting inside the Coalition is correct.

idk id this is a GOOD reason to TR penguin but I somewhat TR him because he has a similar aura to in Terminator
so in terms of voting inside the coalition, I'd go with UD

Gamma saw that I had voted them in 167 before outing this read in 172.

Okay and? That doesn't change the fact that I can draw comparisons to a recent towngame of Penguin's while I can't really do the same for you.

[Gamma Emerald]

My scumread on Gamma is based only on their behavior since replacing in, I had no reason to suspect that slot based on Hyped. I originally believed the assertiveness about being voted into the Coalition in 17 to be slightly more likely to come from Town.

This seems like a lot of words to say basically nothing.

[Gamma Emerald]

PenguinPower has been un-prodded due to weekend V/LA.

I took out Penguin because they have been contributing the least out of everyone already in my coalition.

jeez - wonder why that is

Taking someone out of your coalition isnt like voting for them, its just a lack of townread, and you havent done anything towny so to me this still makes sense.

I didnt think it was too scummy that you just went with the coalition but I thought Hutmeils was a bit more suspicious because they followed you and actually put it dangerously at 4/5.

To be clear even though I didnt think it was very scummy it was still a little and I understood the thought process and my first instinct when I saw it was sus. So I still townread mohab.

It’s hard to find things to point to that aren’t just mindmelding but these feel like actually nuanced thought and lean towny for me as a result.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

This seems like a lot of words to say basically nothing.

That’s kinda the point of 171!

[Gamma Emerald]

Do you have any thoughts atp?

[Gamma Emerald]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

I think I get why but I don’t feel like I should bring it up yet

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: UltimateDetective
to be clear before anyone gets it twisted, penguin's reply and the VC make me feel alright moving to voting here

[Gamma Emerald]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

I think I get why but I don’t feel like I should bring it up yet

Is this a meta thing?

General meta yes

[Gamma Emerald]

Maybe makes sense, but there's also more. Could be quirk of course.

So why i need vote Ultimate/Gamma?

Who would you vote rn?

[Gamma Emerald]

Mala seems town
idek Enchant

[Gamma Emerald]

[Gamma Emerald]

Well I don’t feel much strong feelings on those slots rn

[Gamma Emerald]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

I think there's credit to this
I also think Mala's likely town for this take?

[Gamma Emerald]

It got passed without much thinking about how good the build-up to it was

Ftr I’m inclined to look at hutmeil, don’t feel like Klick or Penguin are scum rn

[Gamma Emerald]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

[Gamma Emerald]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

That crossed my mind yes. What do you think Mala wanted to say about you?

I don’t think she had anything specific in store that she hadn’t already said

[Gamma Emerald]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

tbf that's how i got my first scum win on site.

Mine too but it was a unique scenario

[Gamma Emerald]

Hutmail smeels like VI.

Why?

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: jake
I kinda think he’s coasting here

[Gamma Emerald]

gg