Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

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VOTE: Klick
HEAL: Cat.Jpeg
Why does the heal tag hurt my eyes.

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VOTE: Cat.Jpeg
Hello scum

OMGUS!11!!!1!!1

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HEAL: Mohab

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I have a townlean on Mohab, she has a very towny vibe and I liked her vote on BloodBOt after they seemed completely fine with the coalition of active players. I think that in this stage of the game most people would want themselves in the coalition, later there will be compromise, so the acceptance is strange. Hutmeils coalition now means 3/5 people needed have the same coalition 'just so we can move forward' which is sus. I think we can win day 1 but i dont think that will happen if we decide our coalition off of who posted in the first 2 pages.

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VOTE: Hutmeil

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I have a townlean on Mohab, she has a very towny vibe and I liked her vote on BloodBOt after they seemed completely fine with the coalition of active players. I think that in this stage of the game most people would want themselves in the coalition, later there will be compromise, so the acceptance is strange. Hutmeils coalition now means 3/5 people needed have the same coalition 'just so we can move forward' which is sus. I think we can win day 1 but i dont think that will happen if we decide our coalition off of who posted in the first 2 pages.

I'm glad you offered an explanation. It does make sense. I wish Mohab would have done that though. And I wish there was more actual content in this game in general.

I'm pretty new btw. I don't know what I'm doing. I only completed 1 very short game on this account and 1 other game on an old account years ago. Could everyone please give a background on their experience in MS and with each other?

HURT: Mohab
HURT: PenguinPower
HEAL: BloodB0t
HEAL: cat.jpg

I took out Penguin because they have been contributing the least out of everyone already in my coalition.

I have had Mala as a mod, other than that I know no one here. This is my only account, I've played like 5ish games. I dont know if im good at scumhunting on this site.
I didnt think it was

too

scummy that you just went with the coalition but I thought Hutmeils was a bit more suspicious because they followed you and actually put it dangerously at 4/5.

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PenguinPower has been un-prodded due to weekend V/LA.

I took out Penguin because they have been contributing the least out of everyone already in my coalition.

jeez - wonder why that is

Taking someone out of your coalition isnt like voting for them, its just a lack of townread, and you havent done anything towny so to me this still makes sense.

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I didnt think it was too scummy that you just went with the coalition but I thought Hutmeils was a bit more suspicious because they followed you and actually put it dangerously at 4/5.

To be clear even though I didnt think it was very scummy it was still a little and I understood the thought process and my first instinct when I saw it was sus. So I still townread mohab.

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Taking someone out of your coalition isnt like voting for them, its just a lack of townread, and you havent done anything towny so to me this still makes sense.

Almost like I alluded to that in the very next post I made...almost.

the sarcastic post before seemed like you wanted to be in the coalition and thought the reason for your removal was bad. The next one alludes to that you havent done anything townie so didnt know why you were in so many coalitions but it didnt undo the sentiment from the post before.

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Excuse me
Why aren’t I being healed
</3

Hi Mala
Who shouldn't I heal that I'm currently healing?

Penguin.

HEAL: Mohab
HEAL: Mala

VOTE: Penguin

why the vote on Penguin?

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We should have known that coalition was wrong there wasn’t enough resistance. 2 people would have been very opposed to it if it was all townies. I’m suspicious of Hutmeil and if it’s them they are paired with Penguinpower, UKDG, or Hyped. I townlean Mala.

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I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

Although I haven't really looked into it in more depth either lol, I think the real figure comes out to 32.5% of hitting scum simply because there are more players in the coalition than outside of it

Anyway

Actually I agree that it is 30% not 32.5% because to get 32.5% you are taking the definite 20% of voting scum 1 and adding half of 1/4 as the possibility of voting scum 2 but you need to add half of 1/5 because, while figuring out the chance of scum 2 being in the coalition you can ignore scum 1 as its confirmed there is a scum there and you can just look at half of 8, but with the chance of voting scum 2 you cant ignore scum 1 because they could still be voted. Either way theoretically it would be ideal to vote in the coalition, but if theres someone more than 2.4 times as scummy outside of the coalition then that would be a better choice.

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In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

I don't like how rigid this is. I appreciate math as a guide but I dont think its a good idea to follow it this surely. Also if you were scum right now saying that we will only vote in the coalition until we hit scum is an easy way to protect a non-coalition, scummier-acting partner from being voted, then you would only have to worry about not getting voted yourself.

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Gamma with the takes I'm not vibing with at all

First of all, we're voting in the coalition today. With 30% chance of hitting scum in the coalition and 12.5% chance of hitting scum outside of it, voting outside the coalition is a very poor choice.

Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are both the obvious people to sus at this point but neither of them are who should be focused on right now. Hutmeil's content that isn't the coalition vote just feels genuine to me.

All in all your catchup has a lot of empty statements and things you could easily double-back on and I read it as really scummy. But that conflicts with my townread on Hyped.

Mala I'm interested in your read on Gamma's replace-in

VOTE: Klick

This is scumclaim, Klick seems to be informed that there's exactly 1 maf in coalition, not 2.

Not sure where anything I said implies that?

I dont think Klick has actually said they think there is one mafia in one mafia out. Expecially because if they thought that it would contradict with their math argument for voting in the coalition. Because one in one out would mean in coalition is 1/5 and out is 1/4, therefore better.

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Eh. I am still in mood of voting Klick, but if you need my vote...

I don't think Klick is informed. He's just assuming that there's 1 scum in and out of the coalition since that would be the best setup for scum.

I think Gammas the only one who said she thinks theres one in one out. Im not sure about one in one out being the best for scum because if both were in, if one flipped red people would probably assume 1 in 1 out and townread everyone else in it, but thats getting into reverse psychology. I do however think there is one scum in one scum out because i scumread you.

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Even before I factor in any personal feelings, that nails hutmeil as scum because he's the only one who voted for it that wasn't in it.

Mafia NEEDS to be in the coalition or they lose D1. Town doesn't have to. Though it's nice to win D1, they have the luxury of not being in the coalition and still win the next days. So your logic that I'm scum because I didn't vote myself into the coalition doesn't hold much weight.

On the flip side though mafia need ONE of them to be in the coalition so if they know their partner's in there they are going to vote on it. Also you admit in this post that town not voting for themselves in the coalition leads to failed coalitions. 'they have the luxury of not being in the coalition and still winning in the next days'.

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Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

I think I get why :cry: but I don’t feel like I should bring it up yet

Is this a meta thing?

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Maybe makes sense, but there's also more. Could be quirk of course.

So why i need vote Ultimate/Gamma?

I dont really want to vote either of them. Ideally I would still vote Hutmeil but i dont know if i will get enough support on that. People in the coalition can remove themselves from possibilities of who to vote but right now the only person in there who i dont think could be scum is Jake the Wolfie/mohab so theres 4 possibilities in there. But outside i can remove myself and probably mala so theres only 2 slots I would consider voting.

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Both wagons gave up on voting Hutmeil with me today. We dont need another replacement though so

Intent to hammer

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If we elim inside:
50% * (1/4) = 0.125 (13% chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
50% * (1/3) = 0.167 (17% chance of hitting scum)

There is now a higher chance of hitting scum outside coalition. Pair that with the D1 wagon:

Wagon: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald, Enchant, Klick (plus NK'd Mala)
Outside Coalition: Enchant, Cat, Hutmeil (plus NK'd Mala)

The common player in the groups is enchant. So:

UNVOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Enchant

See this is where I think math stops being that useful. Theres 4% difference from inside the coalition and outside the coalition. This would only be important if we were not doing anything at all to analyse how scummy someone is based off how they are acting. I think we are at least 4% better than random at finding scum. Hutmeil just seems to be trying to create any wagon that isnt him and also protecting himself by saying he thinks the other scum was bussing. I would vote right now but I don't think e-1 within 24hrs is a good idea. I will iso tmr to make sure.

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Hi, i have been busy and im exhausted right now. I still didnt Iso hutmeil, i probably need to iso everyone at this point. The self vote seems like a gambit, which I guess worked because idk why enchant unvoted.

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Okay I ISO'd Hutmeil, i didnt see anything scum wouldnt say but a lot of stuff think town wouldnt do (voting the coalition the way he did and to a lesser extend giving no reads and Omgusing gamma, then trying to create any wagon but his own early today with questionable reasoning (post 245 and 258) then doing a last ditch effort self-voting thing). Enchant is being strange but I still think Hutmeil is the best shot.
VOTE: Hutmeil

E-1

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Sooooooo.

It's Jake.

VOTE: Jake

Bruh

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Sooooooo.

It's Jake.

VOTE: Jake

I'm interested in hearing why you think so

I want to hear where Cat.Jpeg is at

I am surprised but I have no regrets. Hutmeil was scummy. Right now I dont know who it is, I should probably look at UD(rest of acronym)'s interactions but i dont think they had many. The only person besides me who wasnt on their wagin was Jake but i still kinda retain a Mohab townread on the slot but its not based on anything concrete, so i feel like the partner was bussing. And i could see the non-serious vote on Mala as scum who had to either get on their partners wagon or have people sus them for not voting but idk im still getting a town feeling. Jake needs more content tho its basically just prod dodges.

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Can people share some town reads, or scum reads i guess, with reasoning. I would like to see how and what people are thinking and still this game hasnt had a lot of properly readable content.

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Jake the Wolfie was the only person (besides gamma and hutmeil) who wasnt on the Hutmeil wagon. Normally i feel like scum would be on it so that would clear Jake. However with the scumminess of hutmeil would the scum even need to be, also he was getting voted by gamma. With confirmation bias you could look at Jakes slot either way. Basically more content is needed.

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Cat.Jpeg, I feel like you're playing distinctly differently in this game than you have in your previously completed (town) games. I'd like to know if you also feel you're playing differently, and if so, how and why. Basically, show me what you're thinking about this game in the context of the other games you've played and your growth as a relatively new Mafia player.

I haven’t purposely played this game differently but I kinda have been. I don’t feel like it’s too far from my normal way of playing though and this game is pretty different to other ones I have played because everyone is a lowposter. I don’t usually do self meta but I was more aggressive against hutmeil than I normally am but I felt much more sure than I normally am.

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Thanks for giving reads. i could see town enchant but also theres a lot of messing around that seems to (purposefully?) distract from the fact theres not a concrete case on jake. 'it should be why not how' but both Penguin and Enchant are doing that and at least one is town so idk.
I will say this game has been more 'oop its been 24hrs I should post now' than 'This post is x and i want to comment on it right now'.


btw im going v/la from 12/9 to 14/9 so i wont be here during the deadline so if anyone wants to ask anything do it soon.

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This is ridiculous however i dont mind

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im tired but like good job