Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

[Klick]

Hello everyone and welcome to the best setup on the site.

VOTE: Malakittens

[Klick]

HEAL: Klick
HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri

Two more spots in the townbloc, who wants them?

[Klick]

HEAL: Klick
HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri

Two more spots in the townbloc, who wants them?

What's your reasoning?

You don't look how I'd expect scum to look at all from the get-go
UDKG had the same reaction to you as I did and seems to be taking a similar approach to what I'm intending to do
I also intend to be in the coalition

[Klick]

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg
Hello scum

[Klick]

I say we make a coalition of the five people who are posting.

HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: PenguinPower

[Klick]

I'm sorry you've been caught so early feline friend

[Klick]

UNVOTE: Penguin

HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: PenguinPower

Just so we can move forward.

A more effective way of moving forward would be to start engaging with the thread at large.
Do you have any early reads?
What do you make of the fact that there is virtually no resistance to this plan?

[Klick]

Hi Mala
Who shouldn't I heal that I'm currently healing?

[Klick]

I'm used to games having 10 pages in a day and me having no time to post
Now that I actually had a free Saturday the game I'm in is dead lol

[Klick]

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg
Hello scum

What made them stand out out of everyone?

Sorry, forgot to actually respond to this
Cat.Jpeg popped in, put a naked vote on me, and otherwise said nothing of consequence. It reads an active choice to post nothing instead of the passive nothingness that others are giving. Cat is fine with how the game is currently going.

[Klick]

UNVOTE: Penguin

HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: PenguinPower

Just so we can move forward.

A more effective way of moving forward would be to start engaging with the thread at large.
Do you have any early reads?
What do you make of the fact that there is virtually no resistance to this plan?

No I don't have any reads as of now since we're still in RVS.

But who from my list do you want removed from the coalition?

I think there's a decent amount of readable content so far

When did I suggest there are people on your list that I want removed from the coalition?

[Klick]

I can see Mohab town I think

[Klick]

VOTE: PenguinPower

I think the other three are rather likely town

[Klick]

Gamma with the takes I'm not vibing with at all

First of all, we're voting in the coalition today. With 30% chance of hitting scum in the coalition and 12.5% chance of hitting scum outside of it, voting outside the coalition is a very poor choice.

Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are both the obvious people to sus at this point but neither of them are who should be focused on right now. Hutmeil's content that isn't the coalition vote just feels genuine to me.

All in all your catchup has a lot of empty statements and things you could easily double-back on and I read it as really scummy. But that conflicts with my townread on Hyped.

Mala I'm interested in your read on Gamma's replace-in

[Klick]

i should probably read the setup better

HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: PenguinPower
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Hyped

this day is too slow

I found this rather strange after Penguin questioned the coalition's existence not long before.

But I've just read Penguin in ISO and I have basically no problem with the thought process that led to him voting for the coalition.

UNVOTE:

I'm probably going to vote for Gamma. But I want Mala's opinion

[Klick]

I'd like to see your reads and reasoning for myself and Mohab being town

[Klick]

Not sure where anything I said implies that?

[Klick]

Is it the idea that Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are obvious people to sus? Because that's just because they voted the coalition in.

If it's the math, then no, it doesn't imply that at all.

[Klick]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

[Klick]

I think hutmeil and Enchant are both town

[Klick]

I think scum are in Gamma, Cat.Jpeg, maybe Mala, maaaaybe UDKG
I've gone off Penguin being scum

[Klick]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

Here's another way of putting it

Split scum into Scum 1 and Scum 2

There's 100% chance of Scum 1 being in the coalition

Scum 2 has a 50% chance of being one of the remaining 4 players in the coalition, and a 50% chance of being one of the 4 players outside the coalition


So now, take any random player in the coalition
We've got a 20% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a... oh, 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2

Take any random player outside the coalition
We've got a 0% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2


So 32.5% hit rate in coalition, 12.5% hit rate outside it
In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

[Klick]

That is true, yes. But I'm doing math for everyone, not just for myself.

[Klick]

I don't need to do the math for myself because I already know that voting inside the coalition is correct

[Klick]

I suppose more specifically I'm doing the math to shut down Gamma trying to get us to vote outside the coalition

[Klick]

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

Although I haven't really looked into it in more depth either lol, I think the real figure comes out to 32.5% of hitting scum simply because there are more players in the coalition than outside of it

Anyway

[Klick]

Pagetop

[Klick]

Kyoko can you give me a more full look at your reads atm

[Klick]

I would bet the game on cat.pdf being town

Then tell me about it

[Klick]

I have a townlean on Mohab, she has a very towny vibe and I liked her vote on BloodBOt after they seemed completely fine with the coalition of active players. I think that in this stage of the game most people would want themselves in the coalition, later there will be compromise, so the acceptance is strange. Hutmeils coalition now means 3/5 people needed have the same coalition 'just so we can move forward' which is sus. I think we can win day 1 but i dont think that will happen if we decide our coalition off of who posted in the first 2 pages.

FYI this is the exact reason i voted bloodbot.

that's also why I sussed bloodbot cat also mirrored my feeling on hut
definitely have a good feeling on cat.gif rn

Like this isn't exactly a hardball opinion for scum to fake
Bloodb0t's play was weird af and really easy to see as scummy

[Klick]

The odds of hitting scum in coalition over not would make me very hesitant to vote outside the coalition
The most compelling part of it for me is that there is guaranteed to be scum in the coalition, but there might not be any scum outside of it. I'd rather search for the theoretical scum we know exists first.

[Klick]

Gamma, what's your read on Mala and Enchant?

[Klick]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Klick]

You feel very hesitant to commit to reads and I don't normally see this
It feels intentional

[Klick]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

I think there's credit to this
I also think Mala's likely town for this take?

[Klick]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

I think there's credit to this
I also think Mala's likely town for this take?

[Klick]

For what it's worth, I think there's a decent chance this flips scum, but Gamma feels like a better bet
These wagons should be informative

I'd go ahead and hammer tbh

[Klick]

In fact
VOTE: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri

[Klick]

It's just hutmeil isn't it

[Klick]

Gamma is town

[Klick]

Yoink

[Klick]

We had 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out

Scenario 4 is a win for town so that's not an option for scum. So here are the probabilities for scum inside the coalition:
- 1/3 chance of 2 scum in
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum in

While here are the probabilities for scum outside the coalition:
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum out
- no chance of 2 scum out

It not being an option for scum does not mean it wasn't possible at the start

Everyone has an equal chance of being scum after one scum is eliminated from the coalition

[Klick]

VOTE: hutmeil

[Klick]

I dunno. I feel sort of burnt out with this one. There's not enough content and not enough to work with to generate more.

I think there's a decent chance this elim is wrong but I'm not confident either way at this point and we need progress.

I think its fairly likely that UDKG pressed to be in the coalition in response to not being confident his partner would get in. That makes me think the last scum is in like... hutmeil/Bloodb0t/Enchant/maybe Penguin.

I need to totally refresh on this game but I don't have the brain for it right now.

[Klick]

Pagetop

[Klick]

Bruh

[Klick]

Sooooooo.

It's Jake.

VOTE: Jake

I'm interested in hearing why you think so

I want to hear where Cat.Jpeg is at

[Klick]

It is true that Jake has done literally nothing to advance the town wincon

Let me have a think

[Klick]

Cat.Jpeg, I feel like you're playing distinctly differently in this game than you have in your previously completed (town) games. I'd like to know if you also feel you're playing differently, and if so, how and why. Basically, show me what you're thinking about this game in the context of the other games you've played and your growth as a relatively new Mafia player.

[Klick]

I will state that Gamma seems like a very normal kill to me

[Klick]

What I've noticed is that your posts feel much more... projected? Like you're a lot less in-the-moment and a lot more 'I think this and here are my thoughts on this'. It's one of the few things I commonly use to get scumreads, and I think it's what initially gave me a scumread on you. I wanted to see if this was something you were aware of.

But I'm coming around on thinking that this difference I'm noticing is naturally due to the game being lower activity, not due to you being scum. Because your thoughts feel genuine and I think you're genuinely trying to solve this game.

I lean town on Enchant. His thoughts are more in-depth than I've seen from his scum game. I'm not positive, but I don't think he's scum.

There's not a ton of reason to townread the Mohab/Jake slot and I'm not sure why it hasn't been on my radar previously. I had some reason for thinking Mohab was town, but it's long gone now.

I have no problems seeing Penguin as town or as scum really. Question mark.

PenguinPower

why should you not be voted, or alternatively why is Jake scum in your eyes

[Klick]

VOTE: Jake