Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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No I don't have any reads as of now since we're still in RVS.In post 64, Klick wrote:
A more effective way of moving forward would be to start engaging with the thread at large.In post 61, hutmeil wrote:UNVOTE: Penguin
HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: PenguinPower
Just so we can move forward.
Do you have any early reads?
What do you make of the fact that there is virtually no resistance to this plan?
But who from my list do you want removed from the coalition?-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Hmmm not sure about that, anyway still no reads yet.In post 87, Klick wrote:I think there's a decent amount of readable content so far
When did I suggest there are people on your list that I want removed from the coalition?
No you did not. I'm just trying to engage with you more. Do you want anyone removed from my coalition list? Who and why?-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Well like I said, I just want the game to move forward. We have no concrete information right now. Once the day moves forward, then we have something to work on.In post 98, PenguinPower wrote:you can explain why i'm in there
@Penguin: You want out of my list?-
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hutmeil HeGoon
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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What? That's RVS, what's so peculiar?
I agree that both scum could have voted on that coalition. But why do you think 1 in and 1 out?In post 138, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I’m not exactly feeling thisIn post 68, Klick wrote:Sorry, forgot to actually respond to this
Cat.Jpeg popped in, put a naked vote on me, and otherwise said nothing of consequence. It reads an active choice to post nothing instead of the passive nothingness that others are giving. Cat is fine with how the game is currently going.
I need to read more to be sure about this but I’m feeling like there’s a good shot both scum voted for the passed coalition with 1 in and 1 out
Why doesn't it reflect well on me? Scum would have wanted IN the coalition. I was fine either way - I could be in or out. But no one "healed" me so...In post 144, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: hutmeil
I think the other is either penguin or UD rn, but hutmeil being the one voter of that coalition that wasn't in it does not reflect well on him.
We are sure there's at least 1 scum in the coalition, why are you voting out right now?
VOTE: Gamma-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Mafia NEEDS to be in the coalition or they lose D1. Town doesn't have to. Though it's nice to win D1, they have the luxury of not being in the coalition and still win the next days. So your logic that I'm scum because I didn't vote myself into the coalition doesn't hold much weight.In post 148, Gamma Emerald wrote:Even before I factor in any personal feelings, that nails hutmeil as scum because he's the only one who voted for it that wasn't in it.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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By move the game along, I want to get more info on who could be scum or not. I don't the stats, but does anyone know the percentage of town winning on D1 for coalition games?In post 169, Gamma Emerald wrote: It's more to do with the easy pass and the fact you only voted it to "move the game along"
IN all honesty that logic is just about a scumclaim because there shouldn't be a next stage to move along to if the coalition is properly done, other than the postgame.
Or lazy scum. He was like this too the last time I played with him and he was scum. So I think the point I'm making is current "lazy" play is NAI.In post 182, UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri wrote:
I prefer Gamma over Penguin because I believe Penguin may be lazy Town:In post 176, Klick wrote:Kyoko can you give me a more full look at your reads atm
I'm with Klick on this. I think it's better to vote in-coalition (at least for now), because we're 100% sure there's scum in it. There's also the chance that all of the scum are in the coalition so chances of hitting scum is higher if we go vote in-coalition.In post 190, Cat.Jpeg wrote:
I don't like how rigid this is. I appreciate math as a guide but I dont think its a good idea to follow it this surely. Also if you were scum right now saying that we will only vote in the coalition until we hit scum is an easy way to protect a non-coalition, scummier-acting partner from being voted, then you would only have to worry about not getting voted yourself.In post 162, Klick wrote:In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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I don't think Klick is informed. He's just assuming that there's 1 scum in and out of the coalition since that would be the best setup for scum.In post 204, Enchant wrote:Eh. I am still in mood of voting Klick, but if you need my vote...-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Maybe this is the reason why Mala died. She was about to reveal some info but got NK'd for it.In post 192, Malakittens wrote:Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/
VOTE: Gamma-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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That crossed my mind yes. What do you think Mala wanted to say about you?In post 247, Gamma Emerald wrote:You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Why is that?In post 249, Klick wrote:Gamma is town-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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We had 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out
Scenario 4 is a win for town so that's not an option for scum. So here are the probabilities for scuminsidethe coalition:
- 1/3 chance of 2 scum in
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum in
While here are the probabilities for scumoutsidethe coalition:
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum out
- no chance of 2 scum out
If we elim inside:
(1/3) * (2/5) + (2/3) * (1/5) = 0.267 (27% total chance of hitting scum)
If we elim outside:
(0/3) * (2/4) + (2/3) * (1/4) = 0.167 (17% total chance of hitting scum)
So we made the right decision of voting inside the coalition since it had a higher chance of hitting scum.
However the thing that bothers me is how we got scum on the first try. There was a 27% chance of hitting but that means there's a63% chance of NOT. So the chances of not hitting is greater than hitting scum. Which leads me to believe that scum bussed.
Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.
Now going back to the scenarios for D2:
1) Scum in
2) Scum out
So that's 50% chance for each scenario:
If we elim inside:
50% * (1/4) = 0.125 (13% chance of hitting scum)
If we elim outside:
50% * (1/3) = 0.167 (17% chance of hitting scum)
There is now a higher chance of hitting scum outside coalition. Pair that with the D1 wagon:
Wagon: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald,Enchant, Klick (plus NK'd Mala)
Outside Coalition:Enchant, Cat, Hutmeil (plus NK'd Mala)
The common player in the groups is enchant. So:
UNVOTE: Gamma
VOTE: Enchant-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Sure. But we're now in the present looking back into the past.In post 260, Klick wrote:It not being an option for scum does not mean it wasn't possible at the start
I think that's debatable. We could continue the scenarios or go with the 1/7 chance of hitting scum.In post 260, Klick wrote:Everyone has an equal chance of being scum after one scum is eliminated from the coalition-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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9 - 1 - 1 = 7 people left.In post 262, Enchant wrote:Don't try your math again, because i will beat you.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Or scum really bussed. I think that's the most logical thing for scum to do given that UKDG was inactive toward the end.In post 265, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Hutmeil just seems to be trying to create any wagon that isnt him and also protecting himself by saying he thinks the other scum was bussing.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Yeah thanks.In post 266, Enchant wrote:Hutmail smeels like VI.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Maybe, but I chose to believe you given you also bussed (I mean your fellows scum) our last game together.In post 268, PenguinPower wrote:
Do...you really think I point that out in this instance?In post 258, hutmeil wrote:Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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In post 276, Jake The Wolfie wrote:What we should do is execute hutmeil for making math boring
That you bussed a similar mini game to win.In post 271, PenguinPower wrote:What do you mean you "chose to believe me." Believe me about what?-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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I could see scum!enchant say that.In post 281, Enchant wrote:NO TIME TO EXPLAIN-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Another scummy post from scummy Enchant.In post 284, Enchant wrote:DO IT
I'll self-hammer in a few hours if no one objects to that. You'll have 5 players left and at least 2 days more to find scum. Don't know how you'll do that though considering the level of activity in this game.
Just want to point out a few things. Or maybe a readslist before I miselim myself:
hutmeil - Town. I don't know about you guys but I think I did my share for the game (helpful or not). Unfortunately, the game is full of lurkers. Apparently, my mistake was to NOT bring myself into the coalition and that looked scummy.
Klick - On post 51, the slot suggested to bring into the coalition the 5 most frequent posters. I see that as townie since that makes sense.
Gamma - I initially SRd the slot because of what Mala said in 192 but upon reading her ISO, the slot feels townie to me.
Cat - ISOd the slot and is townie to me.
Penguin - I don't know if this means anything, the slot is the only slot that didn't indicate his intention to be in the coalition. Yes he HEALED himself, but he didn't say he wanted in unlike the other 4 who directly stated their intentions to be in the coalition. Having said that, it's hard to read the slot.
Mohab/Bloodbot - They both agreed to Klick's suggestion to HEAL the 5 most frequent posters which I did too. My point here is, if you're sussing me for this, these 2 slots (now Jake/Enchant) should be sussed too.
Enchant - The point above plus his recent scummy posts make him my top SR.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Lol. Reverse psychology? Try me. So far no one objects and the clock is ticking...In post 288, Enchant wrote:I know you won't do it.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Not really. If everyone finds me scummy, then no one would object.In post 290, Enchant wrote:Like hell, obviously atleast one person will ask PLEASE DON'T HAMMER FIGHT FOR THE END.
And you like "Oh see peolle object".
You won't do it. Otherwise you would. Your manipulation doesn't work on ME-
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hutmeil
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Lol what? If I'm scum then you would have won! Why the sudden unvote? I smell scummy scum... I would have flipped green and town would turn on you!
Sure, just so they can turn on you next day!In post 295, Enchant wrote: You hoped someone will do so, are u?-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Nope not a gambit. If you're convinced I'm scum, then vote me then ask Enchant to vote again.In post 296, Cat.Jpeg wrote:The self vote seems like a gambit,
^This. Why? Because he's scum. He's scared when I flip green, town would turn on him.In post 296, Cat.Jpeg wrote: which I guess worked because idk why enchant unvoted.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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Agreed. He's on my SR list too.
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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I was going to until YOU unvoted.
Did I make any excuse? Nope. You are the one making excuses now. You're scared that when I flip green, town will elim you next.In post 301, Enchant wrote:If you are mafia, you probably will make some excuse to not do so. Because hammering self is instalose for you and useless.
Therefore... I see no reason to let You decide this matter.-
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hutmeil HeGoonHe
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hutmeil HeGoon
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