Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Aisa]

Hii everyone! I see both familiar faces and people I’ve never interacted with before
I’m still in the mafia honeymoon period I think therefore p hyped for the game

VOTE: froggodoggo did you get the role of your dreams?

[Aisa]

By the way,

17. It takes 100% of living players +1 to eliminate the moderator. Please do not collaborate with the spectators to start a riot (though it’s not like I could do anything about it if you did, as I would be dead and dead bodies don’t talk).

I am officially interpreting this as an invitation to play a minigame xx

To the first person who dies: I want you to post in dead thread that you want to fire Alianna, ok? I'll take care of convincing the living players. All 100% of em. I'm coming for you Ali

[Aisa]

CSF and froggo locktown tbf

Hii everyone! I see both familiar faces and people I’ve never interacted with before
I’m still in the mafia honeymoon period I think therefore p hyped for the game

VOTE: froggodoggo did you get the role of your dreams?

If you mean SK, then no did you?

not sure what "mafia honeymoon" means but I am also very excited to finally get into a forum game!

Nah, sadly my dreams of dicing everyone into little cubes with a machete will have to wait for a different game

Aisa can be Town for 11!

By the way, Aisa and froggo, do you have experience playing mafia with each other?

We just both made a comment about SK in the queue

[Aisa]

CSF and froggo locktown tbf

not a fan of giving locktowns on page 1, is this more of a jokey read? if not can I get reasoning behind the locktowns.

Deffo more jokey, though I did think both of your posts sounded good tonally. My reads will no doubt evolve as the game goes on.

Hello lovely people

This froggo guy is town

Like your analysis so far. froggo > Lucian for town.

[Aisa]

Thoughts on Klick and Infinity?

Infinity is slightly Townie to me, I think 22 seems like a real thought. Everything else from their ISO seems pretty NAI to me.

I have no opinion on Klick. His position of "well you're the one being awkward!" is one that can come from Town but that also isn't difficult to fake. Nothing in his ISO is difficult to fake, and I'm kind of intrigued by Aisa calling any part of it "analysis".

Aisa, what of Klick's analysis did you like? I'm assuming the post wasn't framed as a joke since it doesn't give such a vibe.

To be fair, "analysis" was maybe a little generous.
I thought froggo sounded towny. Was their tone maybe a little unusual? Yes, but in a way that was more likely to come from town I thought. With that in mind your page 1 push on him did seem a little awkward. From the vibe you gave off I pegged you for someone that should be able to recognise enthusiastic town - pr, if not enthusiastic town, a type of post that could easily come from enthusiastic town.

UNVOTE: froggodoggo

Status update no-one asked for: my mind is handing out TRs like candy at the moment, I need to get a grip before I start TRing everyone in game

[Aisa]

VOTE: Cat Scratch Fever

"They seem fine" on Infinity. That ain't paired. It's T/T or imo, S/T.

I looked at it initially as possibly being paired but I guess you're right that it would be way too obvious of a partner interaction to make so early on.
And yeah this does kind of imply that if you think it is T/T or S/T then you think infinity is the T (why vote CSF if otherwise?) so I like Dunnstral for noticing that.

I will TR dunnstral. I like how dunnstral changed their question up to something that requires more explaining rather than a yes/no answer. Reads to me like genuine and natural solving.

Would caution against reading too much into Dunn's three posts, the same questions gave me a slight scumping.

[Aisa]

Not sure how much furtive's play has evolved since I spectated a scum game of theirs a couple months ago, but I think this might be town!furtive.
p-edit: aha I have perfect timing

[Aisa]

Hmm. At a reread the difference between scum!furtive and here!furtive is not as large as I remembered, but I still think I might be onto something.

If you think this is pensive furtive, I present to you scum!furtive:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=89296

What's wrong with uwu? uwu

[Aisa]

Serial Killer

Welcome, [Player Name], to Open 859!

You are a

Serial Killer

.

Abilities:

Kill: Each night phase, you may target another player and attempt to kill them.

In addition, you may choose one of the abilities below.

Investigation Immunity: You will appear innocent to any alignment checks.
1-Shot Bulletproof: The first kill that targets you will fail.

Win Condition:

You win if you are the last player alive, or if nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Please confirm by replying with the name of your role and choosing either investigation immunity or 1-shot bulletproof.

Hmm
What colour do we reckon that is? Blue? Violet? Purple? Cobalt?
(Please note I am quoting the sample role PM! This is not my role PM!)

[Aisa]

Things are becoming clearer now. CSF/GE/Malakittens, ft. BBT/Dunnstral on drums as SK (possibly)

Feel like this needs elaboration if it's serious

[Aisa]

Just gonna come out and say that I see all this but I need to RL pretty hard tonight so not sure I'll have time to address this today
...which also explains why I got in made two easy posts and left

[Aisa]

VOTE: Aisa

I didn't like their recent two posts. It felt like they popped in, asked an easy question, and ignored some of the more topical stuff that was happening in the game. sorry Aisa :[

It's a game of mafia, you can push me whenever you want love x

Putting about 10 minutes into this game, so this will not be my most deeply considered posting ever.

I thought froggo sounded towny. Was their tone maybe a little unusual? Yes, but in a way that was more likely to come from town I thought. With that in mind your page 1 push on him did seem a little awkward. From the vibe you gave off I pegged you for someone that should be able to recognise enthusiastic town - pr, if not enthusiastic town, a type of post that could easily come from enthusiastic town.

What is your read on Lucian?

I'm not really sure. Null, the I-need-to-think-more-about-him type of null. I tend to disagree the reasons he gives for some of his reads:

Spoiler: Lucian's reads

Welp. I thought the banter in 12 was between friends or acquaintances, but if not, then it gives a weird pockety, overly-friendly vibe.

froggo is hitting a lot of "awkward scum in the early game" pings.

I think I've already talked about this, but I thought there was no reason froggo's posts couldn't come from town.

[...]

I think Lucian, Aisa, Infinity and froggo are all town.

CSF and now BBT are looking scum, I think BBT's push on Lucian is way too agressive, just looks out of place and kind of restless, agitating for someone to push.

The reason why I think BBT is Town is because "scum isn't more likely to be relaxed! That is completely NAI!!" is a very stupid hill to choose to die on as scum. Scum usually has a bit more self-awareness, he reads like a stubborn Townie to me.

I think furtive's already addressed this and I concur - have seen scum fake tunnelling before.

Enchant seems like he has zero interest of playing this game, I think that's scummy. And the IC is also voting there. So why not.

And also this - again it feels like this shows a lack of consideration for what the baseline of Enchant's play is.

I haven't decided yet whether it's just a playstyle difference or something more, you know? But also he feels a bit like he's jumping all around without committing to anything in a way that scum could plausibly fake.

I think I kinda want my vote there atm actually.
VOTE: Lucian

[Aisa]

Will get around to talking about Dunn's posts pinging me tomorrow.

I would also support an Aisa wagon happening. I don't like the fact that she seem to have a lot of townreads but is seemingly avoiding having scumreads.

I'd also like BBT's take on that slot.

What's scummy about that?

I don't know anymore. Don't hammer before I come back, I'm going to bed.

? CSF's not particularly at risk of being hammered?

[Aisa]

Wrt the post I misrepresented, you are correct. Sorry. I retract that part.

[Aisa]

Just gonna come out and say that I see all this but I need to RL pretty hard tonight so not sure I'll have time to address this today
...which also explains why I got in made two easy posts and left

It's also the furtive meta read, which ended up as a townread but then you immediately qualified it

[...]

I don't think there's anything wrong with qualifying reads. I mean, I can see why you find it scummy, but to me it's a way of signaling exactly the strength of my read as well as its limitations. I don't want to come in, say I HAVE 100% READ ACCURACY ON FURTIVE and cause others to update their read of furtive in a way that is unwarranted. If I reread the game I was basing my read on and it's different from what I remembered, I'm gonna point that out.

It seems good to say clearly what my read on furtive is at this point. I'd say it is a medium-strength townread. As I've mentioned, I think that the difference in tone from my experience of their scumgame - they're more jokey here, and seem less calculated - makes them a bit more likely to be town. I also think the interaction they had with you is good. Like I read them as genuinely torn about their read on you.
However, I'm going to qualify my read a little now . Since I first mentioned this townread I've realised that enough of furtive's posts are jokes or one-liners that it could be consistent with a particular scum playstyle. To me this means there is residual uncertainty (heck, it's still day 1!) and this particular universe/possibility of scum!furtive is something I wanna keep an eye on as the game progresses.
In conclusion: I tr furtive enough that I wouldn't lim them today and I'd probably chainsaw for them if they were at serious risk of being eliminated.

I'll talk about Dunn, too, but I'm actually around for a little while and can interact with people in real time tonight, so I think I'll do my posting in little installments

[Aisa]

[...]
We can talk about Dunn if you'd like and what pinged you there

This is a slightly harder one to explain because it was just one throwaway post. You know that feeling when you're town and make a slightly weak post, you know in the back of your head it's gonna land you in trouble, but it's all you feel like contributing at the time and lo and behold we're here now...? Yeah.

Anyway. Maybe I can explain why it pinged me this way: my reaction to any short post with a question is to think "hmm, even if this is a good question this does not preclude the poster being scum." I've kinda mentioned this in my post above, but recently I've been thinking a bit more with the framework of "could X still plausibly be scum here?" so that was on my mind when I was warning against reading too much into Dunn's few posts. "Gave me a bit of a scumping" was a slightly imprecise way of communicating what I was thinking at the time.

[Aisa]

Part of my problem with this game is that I have at least a townlean on like 5 out of 6 of the highest posters in game so far
froggo - furtive - CSF - Gamma - Klick
and it would just be too convenient if they were all town? But I haven't really found a satisfactory way to resolve this / decided who I wanna demote. It's true that 5/6 is not a terrible raw ratio - it's completely consistent with 8-9 townies out of 11 - it just feels too convenient that town would have such a disproportionate presence in thread right now.

I should also say that I have no clue how one would find an SK so every time I say "town" it should be interpreted as "town or SK".

Also I really disagree with the CSF wagon. The fact it built so quickly made me go and look for mafia on the wagon, but it's hard to know what to do. Infinity, froggo and Klick just quickvoted after one another. Maybe I'll take back my froggo townread idk

[Aisa]

And for the record, I have considered the baseline for Enchant's play. He's under it.

I haven't decided yet whether it's just a playstyle difference or something more, you know? But also he feels a bit like he's jumping all around without committing to anything in a way that scum could plausibly fake.

The game's been going no for 48 hours. What does "committing" mean at this point? Has anyone committed to anything?

Hmm. What I meant to say is that it felt a bit like you'd pick someone, make some small criticism then move on to the next player. I get what you mean that the game had been going on for 48 hours and no one needs to be committed to a wagon yet, I agree with you and that was probably poor wording choice on my part. I guess I just meant to say that it felt like your reads were a bit shallow.

But I'm thinking that may be unfair and I may need to update my read so
I'll talk about that in my next post

And also this - again it feels like this shows a lack of consideration for what the baseline of Enchant's play is.

Hmm. Aisa, do you have experience with Enchant? Do you have any knowledge of his play?

A bit - just finished playing in Terminator with him.
I haven't really decided yet but he doesn't seem overly scummy to me this game.

[Aisa]

[...]
We can talk about Dunn if you'd like and what pinged you there

This is a slightly harder one to explain because it was just one throwaway post. You know that feeling when you're town and make a slightly weak post, you know in the back of your head it's gonna land you in trouble, but it's all you feel like contributing at the time and lo and behold we're here now...? Yeah.

Anyway. Maybe I can explain why it pinged me this way: my reaction to any short post with a question is to think "hmm, even if this is a good question this does not preclude the poster being scum." I've kinda mentioned this in my post above, but recently I've been thinking a bit more with the framework of "could X still plausibly be scum here?" so that was on my mind when I was warning against reading too much into Dunn's few posts. "Gave me a bit of a scumping" was a slightly imprecise way of communicating what I was thinking at the time.

I guess it pinged me, because you were cautioning against forming a TR at a low-info point of the game, when I think most (all?) town reads are implicitly qualified "...but they could still be scum here" if that makes sense

It kinda makes sense. I don't think something has ever pinged me in a similar way so I can't exactly say I empathise, but I can respect that it pinged you?

[Aisa]

Oh whoops CSF I thought you were talking about something else. You were talking about my post about Dunn. That actually makes 100% sense.

[Aisa]

Oh, I worry about the fact I misread you in Terminator all the time. I have a notes PT (more like memes and sillyposting PT) this game and made this a couple days ago:

Spoiler: the meme I made

You just feel... really different. If you're scum this game the difference in motivation is staggering

[Aisa]

I'm getting a little tired now so I can't write the quote wall I wanted to do on Lucian, so I'll just leave you all with a couple thoughts I have been entertaining:
- Lucian has elaborated a bit on his read on Enchant. I like the fact they are pushing Enchant because the day is still long, so we have time to produce content around Enchant.
- Looking at his ISO I see that he's also made a longish post about CSF, so my accusation that his reads are shallow is a bit unfair.

[Aisa]

Go unvote, you know you want to x

[Aisa]

Part of my problem with this game is that I have at least a townlean on like 5 out of 6 of the highest posters in game so far
froggo - furtive - CSF - Gamma - Klick
and it would just be too convenient if they were all town? But I haven't really found a satisfactory way to resolve this / decided who I wanna demote. It's true that 5/6 is not a terrible raw ratio - it's completely consistent with 8-9 townies out of 11 - it just feels too convenient that town would have such a disproportionate presence in thread right now.

I should also say that I have no clue how one would find an SK so every time I say "town" it should be interpreted as "town or SK".

Also I really disagree with the CSF wagon. The fact it built so quickly made me go and look for mafia on the wagon, but it's hard to know what to do. Infinity, froggo and Klick just quickvoted after one another. Maybe I'll take back my froggo townread idk

I fail to see why scum wouldn’t all be lower contribution. Positing scum have to have someone higher-activity is gambler’s fallacy.

That is true. I don't have confidence in not being wrong on some high-activity player, but scum could well all be lower contribution. Do you think that's what's going on?

UNVOTE: Lucian

[Aisa]

Really interested in hearing other people's responses to this.

Inconsistency doesn't really bother me per se and I don't think froggo's early progression on Klick looks particularly scummy.

[Aisa]

And for the record, I have considered the baseline for Enchant's play. He's under it.

[...]

Hmm. Maybe you have a point. Would you mind telling me a bit more?

[Aisa]

I can get on board with BBT. VOTE: BBT
Will come up with some questions or something tomorrow

[Aisa]

UNVOTE: BBT no longer thinking this flips scum

Acc he has a point on furtive I retract my townread there

[Aisa]

I have awoken from my slumber. I was tossing and turning all night, fever nightmares of unexpected town flips and scum claiming PR and living forever.

Anyway, the only votes I like on this here Votecount 1.13 are on CSF and

Malakittens

.

I'm going to bed now. Hiraki/Me/Lucian/Aisa/Froggo are the towncore, Dunnstral/Enchant/Infinity/Klick/

Malakittens have done enough for a temporary townpass

, BBT/CSF/GE contains the motherload of Impostors.

Hmm?
For the record the only Mala post between these two posts is

I have a bunch of exams and hw due this week all scattered so I’m focusing on that sorry guys

Could you explain this furtive?

[Aisa]

Thanks furtive, my bad.

[Aisa]

Hello everyone welcome to my quote wall. Make yourselves comfortable

Spoiler: quote

507 is particularly scummy from Furtive.

He states that I have 'declined' to comment on Enchant and CSF wagons. Firstly, I wasn't asked about them at that point so to use the word 'decline' is a misrep. I was simply focused elsewhere at the same and it's that simple.

He also says I haven't commented on the CSF wagon - it had 2 votes when I had caught up? Like, what?

I didn't say that people asked you to comment. I expect people to engage with the leading wagons, that's basic gameplay. CSF had 4 at one point.

Would you expect Enchant to engage with the leading wagons? If you wouldn't that shows people have different playstyles and may not always feel the need to engage with the leading wagons?

Spoiler: quote

VOTE: furtiveglance
the more I think about his responses to me the more his play feels like a dead fish

Maybe not. This is a good vote on Furtive.

I also said this early on in my catch up, so I have clearly disliked Furtive's play from the early game. I only looked into his progression on me as it became more and more obvious that a) a potential BBT wagon was coming and b) Furtive was looking mighty opportunistic.

To call me opportunistic is laughable. What's opportunistic is silently sheeping the conftown on Enchant, which you've still never acknowledged or explained. I've led counter wagons to the confirmed's vote twice, because that's how confident I am in my scumreads. I know how I look if Enchant flips scum, or if you flip town. That's a risk. That's the opposite of opportunistic play.

Leaning into the WIFOM heavily eh?

Spoiler: quote

Cool.

Well, I tell you what. I'm happy to be the elim Today if you're the elim on D2 on my green flip? How about that? Because I can't be assed with the effort of defending myself in yet another fucking game.

For anyone confusing this for towntelling, don't worry.

Town doesn't just shut down and go "I flip town, wanna bet?" when they have no more points to make. "Idc just vote me" is not a towntell. Swearing is not a towntell.

I actually don't find the quoted post from BBT particularly towny. Like, everything else in their interaction is what I found towny. This strikes me as possibly the type of post scum might misjudge as seeming very towny?

Spoiler: quote

I really like CSF's 582.

I looked at Terminator. From what I gathered, Enchant replaced into a hame, and within half an hour hammered a choice in that phase (after voting a different person for seemingly no reason too).

When asked why he hammered, this was his response:

I'd consider enchant.

Enchant, why did you hammer me for leader instead of hectic? We were both at e-1

Idk i saw message "if you heal CSF day will end", i didn't really look votecounts.

Compared to that, this line here:

Need to think before i vote.

feels like a blatant lie.

Yeah, this is quite convincing. My reason for chainsawing for Enchant was less that I townleaned them for their ISO, but more that I scumread other people more and considered some Enchant voters (e.g. BBT) to be voting the easy wagon.

Enchant is always hard to read.

Convenient how this read on Ench changed just as:
- The BBT wagon lost a little steam
- More pressure built on furtive
- Enchant has a lot of votes on them and we're at end of day
(Though if furtive is scum it's interesting to consider what alignment Enchant is)

Spoiler: quote

I've basically given my thoughts on this day 1, and have nothing else to say.

This doesn't feel like a towny thing to say. Now, I haven't been the best at following people's read progression and remembering every single post people have made this game, sooo I could be wrong. But as far as I remember, furtive hasn't really substantiated their CSF read much beyond "it's a sus from deep inside me, a caveman sus". I think that town in furtive's position has plenty of things they can still do. furtive's made a lot of statements like "X is sus" but done comparatively little to actually get votes on their scumreads.

Spoiler: quote

Is there something you want to ask me? What input are you missing from me? I've given my thoughts on the gamestate, each individual player, pairings, claiming, strategy.......

you could start by actually backing up your SR on me, all I remember is vague BS tying me to CSF

How well evidenced does it really need to be? All you said on me was that I was 'dry' and 'a dead fish'. You didn't have a read on CSF for a while, then you townread them and I scumread them so that's one reason. Apart from that, it's just that I've seen scum play like you're playing, and I don't like your reads at all.

First post: "I've said everything I could possibly say. What input are you missing?"
Gamma: "You haven't backed up your SR on me"
Second post: "I don't have much evidence but don't believe I need to provide the evidence"
This reads to me like furtive doesn't actually have a consistent internal process

[Aisa]

Aisa, do you have further thoughts on where your vote may land?

See my previous post

VOTE: furtiveglance

I don't mind Enchant either, but Infinity's post about eliminating Enchant not giving much information is hitting me right in the feels

[Aisa]

Aah didn't check the thread for a couple hours and I feel like pandemonium happened :')

Hmm
The issue for me is that I was gonna say I'm not really feeling any wagon except Enchant and maybe furtive. But CSF complained about my furtive scumcase, so I was going to reconsider that. Not really thinking BBT or froggo will flip scum. I've thought again about what Infinity was saying about informative/uninformative flips, and I think I've come down in the camp of "always eliminate someone that has a chance of being scum." That just feels better to me that eliminating someone who I think is probably town. Just don't really like that sinking feeling you get when you think a last-minute wagon is going to hit town.

I realise I'm kind of avoiding addressing the actually salient point here, which is whether we should eliminate Enchant even with the doctor claim. That's
because I need to think about it. Think I'll go away and do a couple real life tasks and let my ideas percolate and come back in a couple hours.

...that was a pretty useless post wasn't it

[Aisa]

tl;dr no idea if I want to lim Enchant, but don't like any of the viable-seeming counterwagons at the moment

[Aisa]

I'm back. Having thought about it, I agree with an Enchant lim. I think Hiraki is closest to what I'm thinking:

Ppl going 'Doctor, no lim' without actually considering the town utility of a scummy doctor claim with no other PRs claimed and no obvious night kill

It's close to useless at the moment if true and will probably lead to us just still having Enchant on the table as an option around D4.

Not even that - it causes a massive amount of WIFOM from all angles. If you think about the scenarios here, this is probably the best scum play and the worst case scenario for town. [...]

What I'm thinking is similar. If claiming a PR caused town to back down from an elim, this would give scum a ridiculous amount of leverage. Therefore, we have to be willing to eliminate claimed PRs. Enchant's play does seem scummy, so I'm ready.

I've checked and I think Infinity and Mala haven't yet been in thread. I'd prefer to give them the chance to check in, so I will hold off until then.

Will get to answering questions next.

[Aisa]

Who would you want to elim Aisa?

I'm now fully on board with the Enchant wagon, but for the sake of answering this, slots that are kinda in my PoE are Dunn, Infinity, furtive, maybe Lucian. Mala obvs is doing a Mala low-activity (which seems fair enough, she has reasons) so also no clue what to think there.

[Aisa]

But CSF complained about my furtive scumcase, so I was going to reconsider that.

You don’t have to agree with me!

Also, Aisa, I responded to that post. What did you think?

(furtive's response for context.)

I've read it carefully now. I kinda liked it. CSF's response did make me want to reconsider and I do think that maybe last night I tunneled slightly. Or was wearing my scum-tinted glasses. Or whatever we want to call it.

I'm oscillating between "ooh furtive tone town" and "ooh furtive scum trying out a new posting style". Right now I'm in more of a town!furtive mood, but given I'm oscillating so much I think I'll let my thoughts on you simmer during this night phase. We can pick this discussion up again on day 2 if you'd like. Happy to commit to posting some thoughts on you as soon as I can at the start of day 2, so you don't have to worry I'm just scum being noncommittal/waiting to see what everyone else thinks.

[Aisa]

But CSF complained about my furtive scumcase, so I was going to reconsider that.

You don’t have to agree with me!

True.
It just is a fact that your response made me want to look at furtive again.

[Aisa]

Yeah I did think Klick picked a slightly odd post of mine to call a "goldmine". I think it's behaviour that could also have come from town, though. I think it's a specific town kind of oddness, like scum may be too self-conscious to make a post like that.

[Aisa]

I don't see why self-consciousness would be in play with a post like that. It seems designed to seem Townie, at least in my opinion.

Your take is reasonable. I still believe in my take but I recognise it's kind of whimsical.

Short version is that it just

is

towny in my opinion. I read Klick's post as them kind of digging through the thread in wide-eyed wonder in search of clues about my alignment. I or you may not agree that the post Klick quoted is alignment-indicative for me, but the specific way in which they took that post and seemingly "fixated" on it or got a bit excited by it seemed genuine to me.

[Aisa]

I'm also kinda ready for the day to end and don't feel the need to do much for the rest of the day.

I feel comfortable giving Mala time to say something if she wants to, which is why I haven't voted Enchant yet.

[Aisa]

I think furtive is probably town
Talk about everything else later

[Aisa]

Do you have any thoughts on what differentiates town Dunn from scum Dunn, Gamma?
Like I can totally see him being town here, but I don't have a good sense of what his capabilities are

[Aisa]

he feels more "shadowy" as scum, I'd say. Here he feels in the light for sure.

Hmm yeah kinda similar to what I was thinking (checked out a recent scum game of his at some point)

But if it's not him who is it ughh

[Aisa]

@Infinity

any thoughts on furtive after the night phase?

Mala was killed because she was town from Enchant flip btw

How confident are you on this? What do you think of the other theories that have been proposed?

[Aisa]

Surprised to see people saying this was a bad kill or even a vig shoot -- to me this is pretty obviously a low info kill which I find usually indicates that mafia are playing very well in the day and so they can sacrifice a potential suspect like Mala in order to keep the gamestate the same.

Like the only Mafia I can see making this kill is... possibly you? It's too out of left field for anyone else

Explain? I wouldn't make this kill, I genuinely thought I'd be shit on at the start of this day and so I as mafia would probably kill whoever would look best after I flip red and try to talk my way out of the elim as best as possible.

But this isn't a great argument since it only really applies if you already trust me.

Do you have any idea of what players would be in position to make a kill like this in this game based on your reasoning?

I also kinda want this answered froggo

[Aisa]

Feel like you're both getting hung up on this intent to E-1 thing which is... very minor in the grand scheme of things.

I remember actually kinda vibing with the intent to E-1 when it was posted. As far as I remember I was on the edge of saying "let's just lim Enchant ffs not sure I like any of the other wagons" and at the time it felt like it was a nudge the gamestate needed.

I think I can kinda see what the people sussing froggo are getting at, he does defend himself very strongly in a way that feels very WIFOMy and is not very reassuring at all

[Aisa]

Mala was killed because she was town from Enchant flip btw

How confident are you on this? What do you think of the other theories that have been proposed?

Not sure you ever addressed this, BBT.

[Aisa]

Aah ffs
Thanks to everyone in this game who has had to point out posts that I've missed

[Aisa]

As you note, I approved of an Enchant vote when I said this:

I'm back. Having thought about it, I agree with an Enchant lim. [...]
I've checked and I think Infinity and Mala haven't yet been in thread. I'd prefer to give them the chance to check in, so I will hold off until then.
[...]

I was conscious at the time that Mala might not materialise before the end of the day, but it still felt like a kind thing to do to wait for her, so I did.

As to why I didn't unvote furtive, I was just too lazy to.

[Aisa]

Spoiler: fluff

Oh wow did anyone know that when you mouse over a vote tag the caption says "this is an official vote"? Cool!

Can you like, actually explain your Infinity scumread when you feel like you have time froggo?

[Aisa]

I think furtive is probably town

why?

furtive just feels kind of carefree. I still think the most likely explanation for all the jokes is that they’re town and post whatever comes to their mind. Especially true I think as they’ve been interacting with others a lot in real time. I think the interactions usually read like they are consistent with a town mindset. It doesn’t feel like they’re trying to make up crap.

Any posts I make in the next couple hours are from my phone so bear with me.

[Aisa]

this is probably not super relevant now, because i attribute a lot of the pressure on enchant to csf, but i promised to do it so

by play i really don't feel she's very towny even after looking over terminator. like i just don't agree that she was putting that much effort into looking town this game.

-_-

Hmm yeah this feels like an interesting thing to follow up on. I’d be interested in seeing a more detailed explanation of this read.
I agree with what I think Gamma is saying, which is that “CSF is putting effort into looking town” is a bit of a misnomer. I think Gamma meant that CSF feels naturally effortful and interested in the game.
I think this may just be slight semantic confusion though. If we ignore the slightly odd phrasing I don’t see why this read couldn’t come from town.
Overall I’m interested in talking to Infinity a bit more. I’m nullish on them right now, like I don’t see a lot that would make me feel safe TRing them but there isn’t much I dislike there either.

[Aisa]

Infinity, I just went back and looked at furtive’s ISO and I see what you mean about furtive being a possible Enchant partner.

Curious what you think about this?

If you’re scumcasing me for a bad reaction to the Doc claim then you are also assuming Enchant is legit lol

No, I'm saying if your towncase on yourself is "I could have hammered X", it only makes sense if X is town. If X is mafia, "I could have hammered mafia and didn't" isn't a towncase, it's a scumcase. See what I mean?

(May be worth clicking on that post and reading some of the subsequent posts). This is one of the main interactions my townlean comes from at the moment.
idk it just feels like an easier post for town to make than scum.

Sorry I’m giving you so much homework I’d prefer you to prioritise talking about furtive over CSF.

[Aisa]

VOTE: froggodoggo
Torn but I like this as a vote at least for now

[Aisa]

Yes there is indeed 2 maf left. Also we can get a rough estimate of how many PRs have to exist with an RB flip.

Thought I'd have a lot more heat coming in to this day and it has been in the back of my head how I will defend myself. I think one big thing is that Enchant is the type of player who I would not be willing to die trying to save because I don't see them making it very far with so little content. Socially, I think that makes sense, but because Enchant was RB things coincidentally look bad for me.

Ty for the TR CSF, I think I TR you too for your reaction to the kill. Surprised to see people saying this was a bad kill or even a vig shoot -- to me this is pretty obviously a low info kill which I find usually indicates that mafia are playing very well in the day and so they can sacrifice a potential suspect like Mala in order to keep the gamestate the same.

Ik others have covered this a bit. It pains me to bring it up again, but I think I have a slightly different angle.

I’m not a fan of this post and I think it’s a combination of a few different things.
- it worries me that froggy felt such a need to justify themselves. I personally didn’t think they looked that bad at the end of day 1. This doesn’t seem that bad on its own, but:
- If I have to defend myself I think I’m more likely to point to things I *did* rather than things I *would* or *wouldn’t* do as mafia. The latter can never escape WIFOM to some extent. I understand that sometimes you just want to share what’s on your mind, but it doesn’t feel like the approach they’ve taken to defending themselves is actually the most constructive.
- While it’s possible that Mala was a scum kill, I don’t understand why froggy is so adamant that it was. In a post close to the one I quoted he says that “most kills are made by mafia”. Yes, but like, the chance of a SK or vig kill in this setup is non-negligible, and when you see an unconventional kill it’s natural to consider possibilities other than mafia.
- Overall I feel like they’ve shown concern with 1. defending themselves, 2. making “throwaway” comments on various quotes and snippets. What I am not seeing is convincing evidence of like, deeper thought
- Also the “let’s gooo” vote on furtive is sus. In my opinion it is day 2 and there is plenty with which to substantiate a read or a vote and I’m not a fan of the way froggy snappily reacted to furtive’s post.

[Aisa]

Is it possible I’m just misreading froggo here? Oh totally but it’s the best I have at this very point in time

[Aisa]

Happy birthday Alianna.

Thanks!

UNVOTE: froggo
I’m more of a “take time to let reads marinate” kinda gal

[Aisa]

Feel free to yell at me either postgame or now for being so darn obstructionist

[Aisa]

Like even assuming I personally were 100% happy with froggo dying today, I see voting someone off this quickly as kind of risky? I feel like sometimes town losses come from town eliminating somebody on autopilot. I’m sort of philosophically anti quicklim.

You could argue I haven’t really experienced the burn of being right about who is scum but being unable to push that wagon through, maybe it’s just my overinflated ego making me believe I could push froggo through later if I wanted anyway?

[Aisa]

I’m gutted you didn’t make that a Pansage joke, Gamma

VOTE: BBT
I’m thinking this wins the game actually =P

[Aisa]

Or you could just vote now?

(Here BBT is telling Gamma to vote Infinity).
What’s the rush?

also i need to see if i need to review my furtive read. vibes feel very towny but a systemmate is telling me that an enchant red flip would make furtive look bad

-ash

Here.

There is an acceptance that Enchant will flip red as they're already pre-emption their next moves upon said red flip.

It's hardly a surprise that they have stuck with this read.

Meh, I don’t think that post by infinity is particularly scum-indicative.

VOTE: Froggo

I can do this. I think this is E-1?

Dragging out days for the sake of dragging out days is anti-town.

It's clear that on this Day it is going to be Froggo or Infinity - so let's get it done.

Meh, this reads opportunistic.

So one of Froggo/Infinity and one of Gamma/Dunn

Nothing has changed.

Can we just win this real quick?

Nah

(I’m phone posting again)

[Aisa]

[...]
It can't be TTT on the current circumstances unless doctor was successful night 1 and mafia decided to no kill tonight. Both of these seem pretty unlikely to me but again - not great at this stuff. In all cases, the current setup should be that the cop is currently useless because all last 3 X's have godfathers in them assuming we are not in MVDDTTT.
[...]

As you say - this argument relies on Klick not being SK
So:
EITHER Klick is 1-shot vig, shot Dunn tonight, and the night kill pattern seems to indicate no SK,
OR Klick is SK and something happened to either the SK or mafia kill night 1. Which is perhaps unlikely but not impossible.

Further, the probability of there being a 1-shot vig at the moment is ~38%. The probability of there existing an SK is ~50% ish, maybe a bit lower but I’m not going to do the full math. So it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Klick is not SK.

Spoiler: Derivation of 38%

Setup is mechanically conformed to be DDM XXXX and there is exactly one M.
So there is a 1/9 chance of a particular X being a V.
So the chance of there being at least one V is 1-(8/9)^4=38%.

[Aisa]

Assume for the sake of argument there is no SK. What if the setup is DDD so there are two doctors? That would kind of mess with our ability to confirm people.

I’m not necessarily saying we shouldn’t massclaim, just trying to have a discussion about it rn
...although my gut feeling is anti massclaim tbf

[Aisa]

Ahh hang on I have now fully understood Klick’s post
I need to think about the implications

[Aisa]

Gamma:
I am an idiot and it is not exactly one M - should really have double checked the setup huh?
Good point about DD or DDDD. And DDDD is really rather unlikely.

[Aisa]

How common is it for an SK not to kill at night at all?

[Aisa]

Hmm ok I guess a few small things have to go right, like Klick not being SK, no one else being SK, there not being a ridiculous amount of doctors in the setup in order for us to get some good information out of the massclaim.

I think Klick!SK is possible, but upon consideration I can't see themassclaim going massively wrong. I suppose we could out a roleblocker or a vig, but that's not the end of the world and we have a doctor in the setup.

AKA if the people want a massclaim I shall follow.

[Aisa]

Valid point

[Aisa]

But Infinity sounds sooo town
My tone reads are famously reliable

[Aisa]

If nothing else a massclaim would be entertaining

[Aisa]

Sigh.

Conf bias is a thing huh.

You wanna engage with anything else I have said or just cherry pick? Have you checked the interaction between Dunn/Frog and Dunn/Infinity to see if what you're saying is actually true?

Hey BBT. Is there anything in the interaction between Dunn/Frog and Dunn/Infinity that you think is notable that you haven't pointed out yet?

Who would you suspect if Infinity flipped town?

[Aisa]

What did you gain from Dunn/Infinity interactions Klick?

Did you think Klick would have gained anything from Dunn/Infinity interactions?

[Aisa]

What made you decide to shoot Dunn btw Klick?

I don't think BBT or Dunn would agree to kill Malakittens

You seemed to be coming around to town!Dunn.

[Aisa]

Infinity and Frog were both 'low reads' for Dunnstral.

However, he spent more time interacting and pushing Frog than he did with Infinity. In fact, my whole point is that Dunn barely interacted with Infinity throughout the game but had him as a low read. Why?

Why didn't he push this read as hard as he pushed Frog?

Why didn't he vote Infinity? Why was Infinity a low read?

I don't agree he pushed frog much harder than Infinity. Not in a way that feels relevant here.

Here is Dunn's ISO.

On day 1, which is until post 38 in his ISO, he does not talk much about froggo or Infinity. I'll give you that he interacts with froggo a bit more and pushed froggo a little, but the difference doesn't seem significant to me.

On day 2:
42 - asks froggo a question about their reasoning - I think this counts as a push on froggo
43 - argues BBT and froggo are not paired scum
47 - asks Infinity why Enchant's doc claim was awful
48 - agrees with BBT's criticism of Infinity's read on Enchant - I think this counts as a push on Inf.ty
50 - says BBT town, BBT not paired with froggo - counts as a push on froggo
52 - says froggo and Inf.ty are not paired
53 - reiterates they are not paired
54 - votes froggo. This is 3 hours before froggo gets hammered and after a lot of people have sussed froggo.
55 - pushes froggo strongly
56 - pushes froggo strongly
57 - pushes froggo strongly
(numbers refer to isolation numbers)

He didn't push either Infinity or froggo very hard until froggo was at significant risk of being the day's elim!

[Aisa]

That is a fair enough point. I will give you that Dunn's push on froggo doesn't really make Infinity look better.
Also, if you are scum I really like how Dunn handled his interactions with you!

I feel like you haven't really addressed my questions, BBT. Maybe you have a valid reason for not doing so. If so, fair enough. Fmpov, though, I'm trying to understand where you're coming from and you're not giving me much - in terms of addressing my actual questions.

I asked if you thought there was anything in Dunn-froggo-infinity interactions that 1. you thought was notable, 2. you haven't pointed out yet. I asked this specifically because I wanted to understand what the purpose of this specific question you asked Klick was:

Have you checked the interaction between Dunn/Frog and Dunn/Infinity to see if what you're saying is actually true?

Instead, I feel a little like you keep reiterating the point you made back here:

ISO Dunn and look at his interactions around Infinity.

Specifically D2 when I am speaking to him about whether Froggo/Infinity can be scum together.

Notice how he agrees with my push on Infinity, thinks Infinity could be scum, but ends up voting Froggo.

Then notice that Dunn barely interacts with Infinity throughout the entire game.

It's Infinity.

...And in the time it took me to write this post you've gone through a whole character development arc so I have to consider that now <3

[Aisa]

Ooh, the character development was not permanent. Exciting.
(I still like you even though I'm scumreading you!)

But Infinity sounds sooo town
My tone reads are famously reliable

Why does Infinity sound town?

Hmm, upon consideration I will take that back. Let's call it a slight townlean as I don't have enough evidence for a full townread.

Here are a couple posts I picked from their ISO that sounded kinda towny to me:

Spoiler:

it's doesn't make sense from either Town or scum

i feel like it actually does make sense from scum? like either as a cheeky joke thing or as an actual ill-conceived sk crumb. idk I've seen traitor claim traitor to people as a "reaction test". maybe i'm silly for seeing that kind of thing here but it raises alarm bells.

The traitor claim thing sounds like something a townie would come up with more easily.

I'm not finding Infinity's recent posting towny either. Scumreading furtive's SK claim seems a bit surface level?

it's also like, town has to recognize how much confusion/wine that is gonna cause

also yeah i felt like furtive is >rand an enchant partner (and i'm not sure why y'all think i was setting it up as opposed to, just thinking about what my reads would look like on a red flip? it's clear that's what we were expecting anyway)

and our poe is starting to get thin

Point about wine -> I like
furtive is >rand an Enchant partner -> true
Not setting furtive up -> yeah idk this makes sense as a comment to me
poe starting to get thin -> yes

If Infinity is scum, their fake townspew in this post is flawless

[Aisa]

Have you decided if you're pro-massclaim, Infinity?

[Aisa]

You forgot Lucian.

[Aisa]

I can't say I understand why you've chosen that order, but sure.
I claim

Vanilla Townie

.

Get to you later, BBT.

[Aisa]

i feel like it actually does make sense from scum? like either as a cheeky joke thing or as an actual ill-conceived sk crumb. idk I've seen traitor claim traitor to people as a "reaction test". maybe i'm silly for seeing that kind of thing here but it raises alarm bells.

The traitor claim thing sounds like something a townie would come up with more easily.

What makes you think this is more likely to come from town? They wanted suspicion to stay on Furtive and this line of thinking allows them to keep pushing it, no?
[...]

I agree that Infinity could be pushing furtive here. My point was about the specific justification they used. I think this:
town infinity sees SK claim -> "I wonder if this would make sense from scum?" -> "I don't see why not, maybe it's like traitor claiming traitor"

is more likely that this:
scum infinity sees SK claim -> "this is something I can push" -> "let's also fake the fact I think this is scummy because it reminds me of traitors" -> "let's sprinkle in a few words that make it sound like I'm doubting myself to tie it all up"

It just seems like a weirdly specific line of thought to insist on as scum.

Don't get me wrong, somebody who knew these are things I look for when I scumhunt could definitely exploit me here, but I don't think this is what Infinity is trying to do.

[Aisa]

I think furtive is probably town
Talk about everything else later

What was this Aisa?

It was a follow-up to this post I made towards the end of day 1:

But CSF complained about my furtive scumcase, so I was going to reconsider that.

You don’t have to agree with me!

Also, Aisa, I responded to that post. What did you think?

(furtive's response for context.)

I've read it carefully now. I kinda liked it. CSF's response did make me want to reconsider and I do think that maybe last night I tunneled slightly. Or was wearing my scum-tinted glasses. Or whatever we want to call it.

I'm oscillating between "ooh furtive tone town" and "ooh furtive scum trying out a new posting style". Right now I'm in more of a town!furtive mood, but given I'm oscillating so much I think I'll let my thoughts on you simmer during this night phase. We can pick this discussion up again on day 2 if you'd like. Happy to commit to posting some thoughts on you as soon as I can at the start of day 2, so you don't have to worry I'm just scum being noncommittal/waiting to see what everyone else thinks.

[Aisa]

I'll give you Infinity's voting history doesn't look super reassuring.

This said, right now I feel like you're hyperfocused on pushing that Infinity is scum. I feel like no matter what I say your response keeps boiling down to "yes but this is consistent with Infinity being scum". I don't disagree with you, but I don't feel like there is any evidence of you actually trying to evaluate whether all the things you're scumreading could come from town!Infinity. (...Oh no, I'm getting flashbacks to scumreading froggo for a similar reason .-.).

You keep insisting on the fact Dunn immediately doubted frog as if he couldn't just have seen an opportunity to push through a miselimination.

[Aisa]

Meh. I'll give you that Infinity warrants further consideration.

I'll stop pushing you at least until this massclaim is over. No promises about what happens afterwards, but it will give me time to reevaluate. I feel a little too zoomed in, don't trust myself to be evaluating your slot objectively right now, and don't want to end up monopolising the conversation.

[Aisa]

How I envision BBT's reaction to my previous post:

Spoiler: gif

[Aisa]

Ffs

We could also be in DDDDVMT, which also implies a serial killer.
Or assuming Klick is lying we could be in DDDDMTT, but again that's impossible, because there is no SK or vig in the setup.

So this pretty much confirms Klick is town and confirms the presence of an SK. Again, assuming nobody but scum, SK, and doctor(s?) are lying.

...This is actually pretty exciting!

[Aisa]

Now doubting BBT scum but I will push out the 100-word scumcase for my fans <3

[Aisa]

I'm really hoping this is just DDVVMTT, and Klick is trying to big brain it. I don't want to deal with an SK.

Aisa, can you explain to me in 100 words or less why BBT is scum?

I was worried BBT had been openwolfing all game.

Meta-ing BBT (sorry...), I saw that he showed some doubt and analysis in recent town games. His recent posting felt lacking in either. I disliked his reliance on associatives. Despite e.g. Klick and I saying we weren't convinced by the Dunn-Infinity associative, he kept pushing it. He also did not answer my questions. This felt to me like he was not actually trying to solve the game, but was solely focused on pushing through a miselimination.

Also the main options in my PoE were BBT or Infinity and I liked Infinity's posts.

[Aisa]

Let's talk about my present read, though.

Going back through BBT's ISO there's actually some good stuff. The interaction with froggo that got me to townread when I first read it, which starts around this post, still looks really good. There also are examples of BBT changing his mind, showing doubt, analysing things... it's convincing enough that I am willing to forgive the tunnelling.

I need to consider if it is as simple as Infinity being scum, but they look the worst in my PoE at the moment.

[Aisa]

Ehm let's talk about the gamestate.
Now that I have stopped pushing BBT for the foreseeable future, it feels like all that is happening is everyone sussing Infinity. At this rate we will just end up eliminating Infinity because there are no other wagons of note. I guess people have been sussing me a little.

What should we do about it?

[Aisa]

Lmao. I don't know what I was expecting. I should learn not to ask questions I am not going to like the answers to

Hhhmmmnhh update you on what I think about Infinity in 20 minutes.

[Aisa]

Infinity, are you scumreading me?

no, that would've been a hell of an aggressive bus

I remember CSF questioning this but it bears repeating. ??

[Aisa]

Yeah Infinity feels like a fine elim. See you after I've slept on it, sorry for making 1000 posts today.

[Aisa]

VOTE: Infinity

I think what I meant yesterday - without knowing at the time this was what I meant - was that it is fine to settle on voting for the consensus scummy slot as long as we have “priced in” the thought there may be a deepwolf.

I now feel like I’ve done that - I’ve run through all the slots again in my head and there is still no one I would rather elim.

[Aisa]

Forgot to say that is E-1.

[Aisa]

I’m glad you brought that up because Lucian is a read I am less confident in.

I’m now like ah shit, what if it is Lucian?

[Aisa]

Oh dearie me what is a player with a rabbit avatar to do
VOTE: Lucian
?!?!?!

[Aisa]

Oop. I seem to have caused a bit of a stir.

[Aisa]

I dunno, I just kinda woke up this morning and was like "What if it is Lucian? What could I do about it?" and the answer turned out to be "Make a post voting Lucian and expressing that I'm confused in the 10 minutes I have available".

Happy to take any further questions.

I'll take 10 minutes to consider it but fair to say I think I might need to unvote Lucian given I don't think my vote is achieving much

[Aisa]

Ahh hmm yeah don't really see Lucian vote going anywhere this close to deadline let's move
UNVOTE: Lucian
VOTE: Infinity

Infinity is back at E-1.

I'd like the chance to discuss my thoughts on Lucian in a bit more depth before anyone hammers actually.

Do you two maybe wanna give me something to respond to, or are we gonna just sit around for two more days until the deadline forces us to consolidate votes? Because I'm not too interested in playing the guessing game of "but what if Lucian?"

That is fair criticism.
It's sort of interesting to note the reaction I've received - you're replying asking me to do something which is nice. It's interesting that other people have mostly replied with "why are you being silly, Aisa?"
But yeah not sure that's the product of anything but the stale gamestate, your question deserves a response, so I will give you one soon =)

Look how early Lucian was on Enchant wagon.

We really think he can be scum?

That part does look pretty towny. Still you know, bussing exists and all that.

[Aisa]

Ok, the short of it is I have almost no clue what I was thinking this morning.

I gave Lucian's ISO a quick skim and I think I noted there were a lot of posts where he was pushing somebody. At least compared to what I typically do. I tend to post a lot of meta-level commentary on how I feel, waffle a lot, while I think Lucian's posting style is more "I think [PERSON] is suspicious because of post [X]."

I think that made me act a little hastily. I thought that it wouldn't be very difficult to for scum to hide behind this posting style.

Here is a small selection of posts that made me think maybe there could be something to Lucian!scum:

Spoiler: posts

I would also support an Aisa wagon happening. I don't like the fact that she seem to have a lot of townreads but is seemingly avoiding having scumreads.

I'd also like BBT's take on that slot.

Three days goes by quick when a few players are inactive or barely active. I'd prefer we start voting people up to claim soon. My first choice is still Enchant, but there are a few slots I would be willing to compromise on.

Hello, I am awake and I will be with you shortly. Just popping in to say that I don't particularly feel like unvoting because of a Doctor claim.

Same, basically. Infinity is playing like demotivated scum right now, and I haven't seen any good reasons to think they shouldn't go.

I don't think giving very long commentary on those posts is appropriate, but maybe people can see how, off of those posts alone, I might think Lucian is scum?

Of course, those few posts are far from Lucian's entire ISO. On this reread, I see a lot that is towny and no longer support a Lucian wagon.

[Aisa]

Lmao yeah I did
Something about Infinity's tone just makes me immediately think they are town every time I read their ISO. Then I think about it more and tend to revise my estimate of their towniness downwards but it's like this immediate instinct I have to fight

[Aisa]

Here is some analysis of Lucian. Asking Lucian questions for the sake of asking him questions seems... bad at this point, so I will offer this instead.

tl;dr I think he is likely not mafia based on some of the quoted posts. (Deciding if anyone could be SK seems like a harder task.)

Spoiler: quote

like pushing what seems like a utr with 3 days left until the deadline is not super productive

oh i was talking about the part where bbt was pushing froggo

The more I think about it, the more I dislike this "pushing a UTR is not productive" line from Infinity. While I would agree that pushing a UTR this close to deadline isn't productive (especially with a case that isn't that good, no offense BBT), that push lasted about 3 and a half hours, approximately? and then BBT gave up on it, had some actual conclusions as a consequence of making that push, and started doing other things. So giving this criticism

after

that happened feels off.

Looking at that Terminator game now before I get distracted again.

I really like his reasoning in this post. I agree that the "pushing a UTR is not productive" line is not good for the reasons he mentions.
You could argue Lucian is just good scum who identified that Infinity didn't make a very strong argument. You could argue that he is failing to consider reasons Infinity could still be town despite making that post (e.g. I usually get pushed for posts that I make when I don't feel like efforting, even if I'm town.)

IMO it's just more likely he is town, though. Picking out weak arguments just seems to be his scumhunting style.

There's also the fact this is consistent with certain interactions he's had around me. After I made this post pushing froggo for his weak reasoning, Lucian said my posting was "alright" (I am honoured by his high praise). This is exactly the reaction you'd expect if Lucian genuinely scumhunts by looking for weak arguments.

Spoiler: quote

I vaguely dislike Dunn complaining about Aisa's memes on page 27, and this is moreso a note to myself that I need too re-evalue Dunn tomorrow.

Not a fan of 692. Basically, I don't think a post like that of Aisa is very difficult to fake. "What is scum trying to achieve with this" is often a bad question to ask (a lot of scum don't try to achieve something with every single post), but in this case it's especially bad. Aisa claimed she liked Klick's analysis, I asked her what about it does she consider analysis. Reminder, this was the entirety or Klick's ISO when she claimed that:

[snipped off because you can't nest spoiler tags rip -Ai]

I think it's fair to say there isn't much analysis here. So theoretical scum!Aisa, if she doesn't wanna admit that she was calling a nothing ISO "analysis", pretty much has to reverse course and start talking about something vaguely related to what she first called analysis.

With that in mind, I find it odd that Klick would then use 185 as an example of Aisa ~getting her thoughts out in the open~. It kind of feels like scum looking for something to call Townie without thinking through it fully. Because the answer to "what is this post trying to achieve" can very easily be "Aisa is trying to convince Lucian she had some sorta reasons to call Klick's ISO analysis".

Another example of a post where I didn't really agree with the ultimate read but the reasoning itself is pretty solid. There are hardly any in-depth cases in Lucian's ISO where I think "he's really grasping at straws here". Like most of his posting makes sense and seems fair, which I think is a good sign.

There's 5 days to deadline. There is time to turn that "minimal info" into "a good amount of info".

Town mindset

Ugh, okay. 1116 is giving me bad vibes. It's like scum!Infinity was obviously angling towards voting furtive, and was looking for a trigger to vote furtive to make their vote seem more natural and Townie. Except the trigger doesn't make sense because "lol I'm softing SK" is a post that's obviously a joke because it's doesn't make sense from either Town or scum. So reading "how does that come from Town" feels disingenuous.

I do think furtive has pretty bad associates with Enchant, but they seem so shitposty and carefree and just doing their thing that I don't think they're the most likely scum here.

@furtive, have you ever elaborated on your Dunn read/vote? If not, can you?

This is also pretty solid

...getting briefer here because I see juicy juicy things happening in the preview

[Aisa]

Blehh I don't see a way of getting out of this without counterclaiming
Anyway it was a good run doc!me for scum!Infinity seems like a worthwhile trade

I counterclaim doctor

I protected Lucian N1 and CSF N2
I also have a crumb I will point out in a moment
Two doctors is like, muuch less likely than a doctor so I highly recommend you elim between me and Infinity today
...preferably Infinity but I guess that is out of my hands

[Aisa]

By the way,

17. It takes 100% of living players +1 to eliminate the moderator. Please do not collaborate with the spectators to start a riot (though it’s not like I could do anything about it if you did, as I would be dead and dead bodies don’t talk).

I am officially interpreting this as an invitation to play a minigame xx

To the first person who dies: I want you to post in dead thread that you want to fire Alianna, ok?

I'll take care of

convincing

the living

players. All 100% of em. I'm coming for you Ali

...I am gonna get laughed at for this am I not

[Aisa]

Infinity claiming they protected Lucian seems like an indication whatever faction they flip submitted that as a kill night 1?

[Aisa]

Ask me anything

[Aisa]

If Infinity flips SK I'm thinking BBT has a bit more scum equity than the other players.
If Infinity flips mafia, best of luck finding the SK

[Aisa]

Oh, and putting this out there. The Doc should 50/50 whether they protect Hiraki or Klick tonight. Force scum into hunting the Doc instead of just killing the conftowns.

I'm doing this tonight if I survive today.

[Aisa]

Sorry for the random vote on you this morning, btw, Lucian. I think we've established that frustrated you all to no end and did me no favours

[Aisa]

Who would you want to elim Aisa?

I'm now fully on board with the Enchant wagon, but for the sake of answering this, slots that are kinda in my PoE are Dunn, Infinity, furtive, maybe

Lucian

. Mala obvs is doing a Mala low-activity (which seems fair enough, she has reasons) so also no clue what to think there.

Hm. Why did you protect me N1, Aisa?

I started off with a list of all players and ruled out people who I thought scum would want to keep around because they were mis-elimmable.

In the end I was deciding between protecting you, Hiraki, or Gamma. Both you and Gamma seemed pretty widely townread. I ruled out Hiraki because I thought scum would probably rather kill e.g. you who had a larger presence in-thread. I wasn't sure you were town, but I decided that if you were town then I liked your posting and wanted to keep you around. I also got the vibe that perhaps you were a PR, we now know I was wrong about that.

As for why you instead of Gamma, idk, I waffled for a bit then kinda just went with my gut feeling.

[Aisa]

...This also gives slightly more context as to why I voted you this morning. For a while I wondered if maybe my N1 protection on you succeeded. One of the things I thought this morning was that I had to make sure I was not biasing myself into thinking you were town, and well, looks like I probably ended up overreacting.

[Aisa]

I changed my mind during the night! :3
As explained I looked at it first from a pov of "right who would scum want to kill here / who is widely townread"
You were one of the few people who were left on the list and that made me take another look at you and I decided you were actually pretty towny
I didn't wanna come into the thread on day 2 and be like "Lucian town btw" and possibly give away I was the doctor

[Aisa]

(I, uh, change reads a lot)

[Aisa]

What can I say, I wasn't thinking straight and will never attempt to play mafia before work again

[Aisa]

It is hilarious to me that Klick's plan may just work.

Infinity might be scum. Aisa might be scum.

If we vote the scum between them, the other dies, and then if we miselim after that the other scum just kills a conftown.
If we vote the Doctor, both conftown die and we're left in 3p ELo after we vote the other claim (unless they're both telling the truth!).
Neither of these are great outcomes.

If we leave both claims alive and aim for SK:
If we hit SK, it's likely just game over, we win.
If we don't hit SK,

Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK

, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Aiming for SK is just better.

Suppose Infinity protects Klick, I protects Hiraki. Under this plan, whoever is anti-town between I and Infinity can just shoot whoever we are supposedly protecting. However, we can fix this! We can just say that whoever is doctor between I and Infinity will just 50/50 between you and Hiraki, as originally planned.

More thoughts soon.

[Aisa]

Aah no nvm I see what you mean Klick
I said something last night about not playing mafia in the morning nad here I am again

[Aisa]

It is hilarious to me that Klick's plan may just work.

Infinity might be scum. Aisa might be scum.

If we vote the scum between them, the other dies, and then if we miselim after that the other scum just kills a conftown.
If we vote the Doctor, both conftown die and we're left in 3p ELo after we vote the other claim (unless they're both telling the truth!).
Neither of these are great outcomes.

If we leave both claims alive and aim for SK:
If we hit SK, it's likely just game over, we win.
If we don't hit SK,

Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK

, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Aiming for SK is just better.

Suppose Infinity protects Klick, I protects Hiraki. Under this plan, whoever is anti-town between I and Infinity can just shoot whoever we are supposedly protecting. However, we can fix this! We can just say that whoever is doctor between I and Infinity will just 50/50 between you and Hiraki, as originally planned.

More thoughts soon.

Whoever is anti-town between I and Infinity cannot just shoot whoever we are supposedly protecting because that is equivalent to claiming scum :')

[Aisa]

This is Klick's plan as I understand it. I am essentially repeating what they say, but it's a fairly complex plan, so maybe it will actually help both me and others understand it?
-------
The game is now split between two elimination pools. Me-Infinity and Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian. There is very likely exactly one anti-town person in each pool. To keep it simple Me-Infinity is the mafia limpool, Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian is the SK limpool (but the other way around is possible!)

We are an even number so we can afford an extra nightkill tonight if that happens.

Eliminating in the mafia limpool today likely results in a conftown death tonight.

In order for eliminating in the SK limpool today to be any better, you want this to cause a nightkill on the SK limpool or on mafia. (If the NKs are on Klick-Hiraki and/or whoever is doctor, you'd want to eliminate between me-Infinity tomorrow, at which point you've just switched the order of eliminations.)

IMO whoever is SK in Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian could plausibly no kill, kill between me-Infinity, or attempt to kill between Hiraki-Klick, so we shouldn't be relying on them to provide the useful kill.

I think you're right however that mafia has to 1. kill in the SK limpool, 2. no-kill, or 3. essentially claim mafia.
-------
The biggest problem for me is that if mafia believes they are screwed and decides to, as Lucian says, "fuck the town" by no-killing or claiming mafia then you've just switched the order of eliminations. Any elimination in Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian today is bound to be rushed, so it is only worthwhile if we think we have a good chance of getting that extra nightkill in the PoE.

[Aisa]

...I think the plan actually works? There is the chance Infinity has just decided to screw the town at this point, in which case we're a bit worse off than planned tomorrow, but I

think

killing should be better than no killing for Infinity?

And yeah as mentioned, Lucian, we're even so two nightkills today will get us to 5 players, which is no worse than 6.

In principle I'm down for some last minute SK hunting if others are down and people don't see a flaw in the plan.

Also, I'm jealous now, I wanted to be the queen of advocating for weird plays before deadline <3

[Aisa]

tbf I don't think whoever is the true doc makes it past tonight assuming all possible kills last night were attempted
since infinity and aisa claimed different n2 targets, unless a crosskill happened, a kill was stopped
whichever scum did the stopped kill knows who they targeted last night so they know who is legitimate in this scenario

This doesn't seem like the crucial consideration for deciding which plan to go with.

I still think the best argument for Klick's plan is that we may get an extra NK in Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian, which would help SK hunt. I don't think I have seen a complete argument against this yet.

Going away for a few hours now but will be around later ~

[Aisa]

I haven't read the latest mech arguments. Just popping in to say that while I think Klick's plan is good, we also have to keep in mind town morale. We have 24 hours left and even I am at the point where I don't feel like forcing people to effort if they don't want to.

I realise it's a bit rich of me to say this, idk, I've had a change of heart.

If

people want to effort, great, let's follow Klick's plan or keep discussing mechanics. I'd maybe look for SK in Gamma/CSF but it's not a strong read.

If people would rather just take it easy that is fine by me and let's just get Infinity out.

I strongly advocate for voting BBT and Lucian in the next two day phases if Infinity flips Mafia and I'm dead.

Particularly Lucian comes out of this conversation looking a lot worse than before. He's considered the plan but insists there's a downside that he doesn't want to demonstrate.

I don't know. Keep in mind Gamma has also checked in. She hasn't said no to your plan but also hasn't said yes, that can be a way of stalling in itself. They can't all be SK. "Let's just follow the plan we had in place" can be a helluva drug and that may be all that's going on here.

[Aisa]

VOTE: csf

despite our immediate reaction to the cc, i think aisa is probably town.

2.7% isn't really the probability of having 2 doctors, since the only other option is a specific setup

. it's still unlikely, but probably the world we live in.

This doesn't matter right now, but for future reference I'm pretty sure Lucian's calculations already take into account the fact there are only two possible setups (or only a few possible setups).

I ran my own calculations assuming that DDDDMVT and DDMVTTT are the only possible setups and got a 1.96% probability of DDDDMVT and 98.04% of DDMVTTT.

[Aisa]

P-edit: I can respect that reasoning Infinity

I'm ignoring the possibility of them both being Town because in that case, fuck this game.

Look at how both Infinity and Aisa have been playing after their claims. Who strikes you as more likely to be scum there?

Yeah I vastly dislike this
This feels like his main concern is avoiding a Doc loop.That would be why his reason for disliking the plan Klick came up with.
VOTE: Lucian

Do you think Lucian believes there are two doctors? I'm not really getting that vibe.

[Aisa]

This feels like his main concern is avoiding a Doc loop

I'm sorry, what. Unless your argument is that I'm Mafia, I don't even

know

whether we have a Doc loop right now. (Fun fact, it's likely we don't, because 2.7% is not very likely.)

If your argument is that I am Mafia... Then me being stuck in final 3 with Infinity and Aisa would be a wet dream. It is very likely the paranoia would set in and they'd vote each other. 90+% chance one of them is scum. I'd jump on the idea of a Doc loop here.

Yeah I was hoping for a response from Gamma before calling this out, but this response feels a bit off.

Gamma's play looks very SK-like if that's a thing? Kind of floating by in the game without doing much pushing or drawing too much attention?

I see what you mean. As others have mentioned, I think we should keep in mind this probably isn't far from their normal town play. Also worth keeping in mind I think that Gamma has not been pushed much until now which would partly explain why they haven't attracted much attention.

This said the above response felt off to me, like the interpretation of Lucian's post seems a bit forced?

[Aisa]

Gamma's response is the one that feels off.

They already said that they're not revealing who they protect - which is the correct action.

So either town gets another mis-elim and mafia/SK gambles on an already losing hand (both factions down to one on Day 3) or mafia/SK doesn't do that and has to shoot doctors. They could even shoot one doctor (assuming both are real) by way of not knowing which one will hit which one and then the other becomes very obvious in D5 because they're not dead.

Klick & I are not the important confirmed townies right now.

I don't completely understand the mechanical discussion between you and CSF but it seems important to get this bit straight.
My plan at the moment is
IF we end up eliminating Infinity then I will 50/50 between you and Klick.
IF we eliminate someone else then I will protect you and Infinity will "protect" Klick.

I don't mind changing to 50/50 protecting Hiraki and Klick in any eventuality if that seems better.

[Aisa]

Hmm I wanted to say CSF's reaction to today's events felt towny (as in I don't think she is SK OR Mafia) but on second thought I will shut up and let someone else attempt to sort that slot

I'm not really buying it, but I'll unvote anyway to see what others think.

I have this theory that maybe the furtive kill was a doc-hunting kill? Maybe who ever killed them thought they could have been doc e.g. from the reaction to the Enchant claim above?

[Aisa]

Okay yes i want to vote infinity. I think gamma still needs to check in though

CSF, you seemed to make your mind up on this pretty quickly. What made you want to vote Infinity instead of me?

[Aisa]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Gamma is at E-1.

Something something properly evaluating the slot if we had time :/

[...]
My plan at the moment is
IF we end up eliminating Infinity then I will 50/50 between you and Klick.
IF we eliminate someone else then I will protect you and Infinity will "protect" Klick.
[...]

Assume I'm doing this unless I say otherwise.

[Aisa]

I would like to use a post to apologise for making this post:

Oh, I worry about the fact I misread you in Terminator all the time. I have a notes PT (more like memes and sillyposting PT) this game and made this a couple days ago:

Spoiler: the meme I made

You just feel... really different. If you're scum this game the difference in motivation is staggering

It was probably bad and I don't want to do something like this again.

Spoiler: More words about the post

For a while I wondered whether it counted as OGI/angleshooting/whatever you want to call it, because I think this is true:

I think it's okay, she didn't quote from it. She technically could have made that meme on the spot and lied about it

I've concluded that I was definitely "lucky" in this instance because it was possible for me to have made the meme up on the spot. What if I had posted the meme 1 minute after CSF's post, instead of 8?

Even the way it played out in this game - it instantly got both CSF and Gamma off my back - felt kind of overpowered. I can't really think of a practical example right now, but I'm sure I could have damaged game integrity more if I'd set my mind to it.

I then started imagining what Mafia play would have to become if it were common Town meta to pull stunts like I did with my notes PT. Mafia would presumably have to start talking about their imaginary notes PT all the time and making memes of their own.

That sounds like hell. So yeah. Sorry and I will not do it again.

Shout out to Alianna for dealing with it, Dunn for taking upon it themselves to shade the post, Gamma for - presumably grudgingly - chainsawing for me. Also shout out if you decided not to engage with the post in order not to make it a bigger deal. You're all stars xx

[Aisa]

Hey! That ^ was exactly the middle post on this page! That's kinda cool.

[Aisa]

Dead thread is good fun. Almost sad I didn't get to join you.

Agreed Alianna did some great modding.
Great vig shot and 11th hour mechanical play by Klick. Would nom for a Best Mechanical Play scummy if that were still a thing.

My Notes PT. There isn't a lot in there because I went off it after The Post, but I think furtive may enjoy this:

I have an excel spreadsheet in which I assign people probabilities of being scum
Just knocked 1% off furtive for the uwu post
...Don't tell people I am that easy to pocket

My instincts were right. This could have been the start of something great. It is really is a shame I started doubting them later.

[Aisa]

It was still lovely of you to make an effort to play on, Infinity! <3

ggs!! this was a fun first game to be apart of and learn from hope to see you all around

Not my first game but +1! Hope to see you all around xx

Dead thread is good fun. Almost sad I didn't get to join you.

Agreed Alianna did some great modding.
Great vig shot and 11th hour mechanical play by Klick. Would nom for a Best Mechanical Play scummy if that were still a thing.

My Notes PT. There isn't a lot in there because I went off it after The Post, but I think furtive may enjoy this:

I have an excel spreadsheet in which I assign people probabilities of being scum
Just knocked 1% off furtive for the uwu post
...Don't tell people I am that easy to pocket

My instincts were right. This could have been the start of something great. It is really is a shame I started doubting them later.

....

uwu

hehe

[Aisa]

Thanks everyone.

Fun fact: I was telling my mum about this game and decided to get her opinion on who I should protect Night 2 for the giggles. She's absentmindedly nodding along pretending to understand what I am on about, until she catches one glimpse of CSF's avatar and goes "that one".

I'm a fraud really.