Open 856: Deputy cultists (Game over)

[Nathann]

VOTE: Jacket

Greetings.

[Nathann]

Inclined to agree with Jacket that Enchant seems slightly Townie from their posting so far. Probably going to extend that feeling onto Jacket for the time being too.

Beat might be Town for 23. I disagree with the idea, but I think most Scum would be hesitant to recommend that strategy in their first post.

Let's try to VOTE: RH9.

I want to ask why to both of the above posts. Although tbf I am town reading cat for bad reasons.

Can I know what those reasons are?

[Nathann]

... Who even converts Vengeful which claim d1? They claim and basically never elimmed, as they are again... Not Cult Leader with quarantee.
Governor probably can be converted for power, but if we don't manage to hit CL for 3 days, we kinda deserved to suck up.

I can see the idea behind the Vengeful Townies claiming now, actually, but the Governor should definitely stay silent. They can always claim later if they get run up.

Also, Enchant is Town.

[Nathann]

You got put at E-2 on page 1.

Y-3*.

Is this supposed to be a serious read?

[Nathann]

Which answer will you townread me for?

It depends on how you try to rationalize that read, which was going to be my next question.

[Nathann]

The short answer is yes it was a serious read, which makes more sense if you imagine it was a 9 player game (which I did).

Okay. Walk me through your thoughts on why three people voting Jacket on page 1 makes him likely not Cult Leader. (I know the answer might seem obvious, but bear with me.)

[Nathann]

I don't think Cultists would vote their Leader in RVS. So either 3 town happened to land on CL on page 1, or they aren't Cult Leader. It seems unlikely that the first scenario happened, but I suppose it is possible.

I don't think you're looking at this the right way, exactly - if it's three Townies, they just voted a person without knowing if they're Cult Leader or not. Do you think it's unlikely the three people that voted are all Town? (And this is ignoring the fact distancing would be extremely important in this setup, but y'know.)

Now - I have a question for you.

What is more suspicious:
a) Beat putting Jacket on E-3 in 23
b) BBT putting Korina on E-3 in 43
c) None of the above, you're a cultist trying to distract me from......what were we talking about again?

Both seem equally null to me. If i

had

to pick a more suspicious post of the two, I'd go with BBT's, since they didn't offer any other thoughts, and Beat's comment along the vote is somewhat Townie.

Anything you're seeing in the Y-3 posts?

[Nathann]

I think Korina is a non-Leader Cultist. Their entrance into this game feels designed to get people angry and to vote them over it. It feels inflammatory for the sake of it. And since I feel like Korina is a better Scum player than that and wouldn't make such a stupid error, AND that they would realize it's in Cult's favour to kill non-Leader Cultists since then they can convert more.

And I'm vaguely reading Bellaphant as not aligned with Korina, so there's that.

RH9 is still my best bet for Cult Leader. His posts feel like he's genuinely trying to uphold a thread presence, but he's not actually saying anything helpful or Townie.

[Nathann]

Does anyone (other than Korina) have thoughts on whether furtiveglance's 64 is Townie or Scummy? It feels like a post I

should

have an opinion on, but I can't quite make it out.

[Nathann]

If it's genuine, then I agree with Jacket that he's probably Town.
If it's sarcastic, then I'm not sure if it's AI. I want to say it's Scummy for ignoring my questioning and cutting the conversation short, but I've been wrong on reads like that too many times.

[Nathann]

Maybe. But he never actually said what the thinks the difference is.

[Nathann]

What's bad about it?

[Nathann]

Korina is posting from their pov of someone who seems to love cults

Do you actually believe that Korina's rageposting over having 3 random votes on them is genuine? Do you really think that Korina, who seems to have so much experience in this game, would be knocked so off their balance by three naked votes?

rh9 also feels like a weird person to pick out, over other low content posterrs?

Do you think I'm Scumreading RH9 for "lowposting"? That's not what I said.

He's misreading the tone of furtive so much, but then again walking back the read. None of it feels like content they are massively behind.

It's almost like I said that I wasn't certain in my read there. Which is Scummy because...?

[Nathann]

I think they were cross about a policy elim/meme, not the votes themselves? Idek, there's clearly context here that they think people know but I don't.

Fair. Can you expand on it a bit? Honestly I've not noticed then produce anything and have lumped them with Titus/bbt

It's not scummy on its own, but the third time in four posts feels very hedgey.

Doesn't change my point. They got meme voted because it's a Cult game. Korina is surely used to getting meme voted in Cult games. I just don't see a world where their first reaction to seeing that is going all rage mode and screaming at everyone who voted them for it.

Make note, I don't think Korina reacts like that as Town, and I also think Scum!Korina is good enough to know that the game is most likely to find such a reaction Scummy. So it doesn't make sense they're the Cult Leader. The only scenario where it makes sense is if Korina is a Cultist (who knows it's in benefit of the Cult for Cultists to get killed so that the Leader can recruit more), or

maybe

they're a Vengeful Townie trying to play a hero. My money is currently on the former.

Read Titus's and BBT's ISOs, then read RH9's. All of them have about the same amount of content. The only difference is that Titus and BBT are not pretending that they're solving anything. While RH9 has posted 8 posts, most of which are tangentially game-related (talking about the setup, etc.) but none of them actually get us anywhere. He doesn't have reads. Other than arguably Townleaning Jacket, who, IMHO, had not done anything worth unvoting at the time. RH9 and Titus/BBT all have zero content, but RH9 is the only of the three who is trying to look like he's contributing.

I mean. furtiveglance's not someone I have a great read on right now. I concluded that he is Townie in one scenario, and null in the other. I don't pretend to have strong reads on people I don't have ones, and I didn't want to leave that line of conversation without giving a conclusion.

[Nathann]

how happy do you think someone would be to see that?

Happy? Not really. So angry they start rageposting and now claim they don't wanna play? Definitely not.

... Actually, you just come, not reading modpost, not reading your supposed town PM and start lecturing ppl in anti-town plan which is not gonna work.

Where did they do this?

[Nathann]

not reading modpost, not reading your supposed town PM

I'm moreso interested in this part - where did Korina show they didn't read their role PM? Like, none of those posts read like a slip or anything to me.

[Nathann]

Kind of a weird distinction to draw. Titus and BBT were both only posting during RVS, RH9 made some posts after. And I'd expect you to know that RH9 tends to make posts that are...weird.

It seemed to me that Bellaphant thought I was going after RH9 because he was lowposting, and said she doesn't see the difference between him and Titus/BBT. I just was explaining why he's different than them, I wasn't the one trying to compare him to them.

Sure, I know his posts are weird. I think they're usually not completely devoid of content, though. Do you think he's Townie?

[Nathann]

Boring.

[Nathann]

Opinion that nobody asked for: I agree that Enchant's posting seems to be clearly from a Town perspective, while Cat.Jpeg's posts are more nullish. Not sure if I would call them Scummy, but they're definitely not moving anything forward. BBT's interpretations feel to be bad faith.

[Nathann]

Opinion that nobody asked for: I agree that Enchant's posting seems to be clearly from a Town perspective, while Cat.Jpeg's posts are more nullish. Not sure if I would call them Scummy, but they're definitely not moving anything forward. BBT's interpretations feel to be bad faith.

I haven't said anything about Enchant regarding a read.

What about my interpretations are bad faith? And if you believe this, you should probably vote me

I know, I wanted to point out how much my thoughts align with Jacket's there.

148 feels bad faith since it seems clear to me Jacket's vote was about the quality of the discussion, not the quantity. 151 is trying to make Jacket seem like Scum by a very dumb "gotcha" as opposed to actually trying to understand what he's saying in 150. 156 is trying to force out a contradiction that doesn't actually mean anything for Jacket's alignment. And 159 feels like bad faith questioning because asking what's the "Scum motivation for posting bad posts" is a bad question. Obviously Scum wouldn't post bad posts if they thought it would get them caught. Scum posts bad posts if they're careless or don't know better. It's a loaded question.

I want to keep voting RH9 because he still feels a bit too scared to me, which I expect from a Cult Leader. I'll see how I feel later.

[Nathann]

151 is flat out facts. Like, it's just facts.

Okay. That doesn't change the fact that it's presenting the "facts" in bad faith. If you want to be literal, then yes, both Enchant and Cat.Jpeg talked a lot about the setup. No shit, good job there. But I think it's pretty clearly implied that, if you're voting someone for being wrapped up in it, you're voting them because they're doing it in a scummy way. Enchant was driving the game forward, Cat.Jpeg wasn't. You're removing the nuance and trying to paint Jacket Scummy for it.

Moving goalposts for reasoning on a vote isn't alignment indicative for you? Alright, noted.

What are you even referring to here?

Scum want to influence the game, no? So by arriving at a nothing conclusion it doesn't appear to do anything to forward a scum win-con.

This assumes that Scum is always perfect and makes every post with the intent of pushing some grand agenda. Surely I don't have to respond why that doesn't happen in practice, especially with newer players (who Cat.Jpeg seems to be). Not knowing what to do as Scum and just posting posts without content is something never Scum does very often.

This is, what, saying that you've never seen Scum attempt to actively lurk by putting out posts that seem like content but don't actually go anywhere? That is the entirety of my Scumread on RH9, how come you didn't attack me over it?

[Nathann]

nathaan

naarhan

I find it funny how my name is getting spelled progressively worse as the game goes on.

Also, I do want to throw potatoes at Enchant now. Cult doesn't care about your persuasive skills if you're a Governor.

[Nathann]

@nathann, sorry! It's not personal

Hah, don't worry about it. As I said, I just thought it was funny.

This is, what, saying that you've never seen Scum attempt to actively lurk by putting out posts that seem like content but don't actually go anywhere? That is the entirety of my Scumread on RH9, how come you didn't attack me over it?

Good catch.
Do you think that BBT should be Venged?

Why did you say Venged specifically?

Also, what are your reads looking like right now?

[Nathann]

VOTE: BBT

[Nathann]

Well, I'm kind of disappointed that BBT did not respond to my earlier post, but alright.

Also, I too claim Vengeful Townie. I'm assuming neither of Jacket and RH9 is a Townie fakeclaiming, since it's not like they can eat a bullet for a real power role in this setup. So one of them is most likely a non-Leader Cultist.

[Nathann]

I wouldn't put it past Scum!Jacket to claim Vengeful first, but I agree he's most likely Town here.

My thoughts are that, while the Cult Leader claiming Vengeful would really be a funny gambit, it gambles that the Town will never agree to start killing within the CC's. So overall, I find it unlikely.

[Nathann]

I still think nathann is town.

So, our best strategy is to ignore the cc right now? As elim-ing a depury gives scum a recruit if we are wrong? I need someone to explain like im five.

Yeah, if we eliminate a non-Leader Cultist, they get to convert someone. So if we believe that the Leader wouldn't claim Vengeful, then it's optimal to ignore the CC's and keep trying to find them.

[Nathann]

By the way a clarification on 279 before anybody gets misdirected.
Nathann fakeclaimed VT in Open 838 as SK but he actually acted more Town than a whole portion of the playerlist.

Er. Of course I fakeclaimed as Serial Killer. I wasn't going to just. Openly claim Serial Killer.

I think RH9 is having a very weird thought process by comparing this to my 3P game. Yes, Cult is often considered 3P, but here they're just the scumteam, while the Serial Killer is a proper 3P.

Somehow, I'm starting to think he's Town, despite the very odd thought process. BBT pointing out the "softs" kind of helped with that.

[Nathann]

I don't think there's a point in eliminating RH9 and having him shoot within the inactives, when we can just eliminate within the inactives.

[Nathann]

Nathann can you point to any softs of your own? Same question to Jacket.

No. I was trying to play in a way that my role wouldn't be noticeable. I didn't want the Cult to know where to recruit.

[Nathann]

UNVOTE: BBT

I kind of like his recent surge in posting. Also kind of unnerved by furtiveglance's white knighting of me, but meh.

For the record, I wouldn't cry about being eliminated today. Getting to use my Venge shot sounds fun.

[Nathann]

Titus is playing similarly to how she did one other game she was Town in. I'm aware that doesn't mean much, but I'm also wondering if she would... put a bit more effort into the game as the Cult Leader.

[Nathann]

VOTE: Beat

I'm thinking Jacket + Korina as the Prime Cultists.

Unsure what the vote count is right now, I'm open to eliminating almost anyone. Since it they're Town, then at least the Cult doesn't get to recruit tonight.

[Nathann]

Do you think I'm sus? or just unnerving?

Just unnerving. I think I had a thought on my Cult isn't that likely to white knight me there in that manner. I forgot by now, but I'll trust my past self.

[Nathann]

Furtive, this is your friendly reminder that Nathan is very likely cultist.

Do you think I'm the Leader? If not, you're aware killing me as the Prime Cultist is actually what I want, right?

Why Beat Nathan?

They're someone I can remember has posted

something

that sounded Townie and solve-y, but I can't remember what. I feel like that's more likely to be Cult Leader behaviour than if I didn't remember their posting at all (e.g. Titus).

[Nathann]

He hasn't gone for a Titus/Cat type player, or even Bella. But someone he was town reading.

Almost as if I don't Townread them anymore.

What's the hmm for?

As I said, I don't really mind being eliminated, since it's better than no elimination, and I get to shoot. Though fair warning, I will likely not be shooting between the Vengeful claims.

[Nathann]

Right, but why? Why as scum is he trying to generate content?

Hm. If he thought the Vengefuls would claim at some point, then it makes sense to go first. That makes it less likely he gets eliminated first, and rather likely he gets Vengekilled. Which is a double win: a confirmed Townie is out, AND the Cult gets to recruit.

Or, the Vengefuls shoot each other, which is also good. You get my point.

[Nathann]

The hmm is you trying to steer discussion away from elimming vengeful pool and then also saying CL is unlikely to claim Vengeful and thus making it more likely that CL!Nathan claims Vengeful because he thinks it's an unlikely play.

Ah yes, because me as Cult Leader would be truthfully telegraphing what I think is optimal play for Cult.

Any indication of that town read disappearing?

Or has Beat done something to earn naughty points?

No. I didn't think about this game much in the past few days, then earlier today I got reminded that they exist, and it made me realize they can be someone who's trying to fly under the radar. So they can get my vote for the time being.

[Nathann]

I disagree but I don't have time right now to argue about it and I don't think it will change your read of me anyway.

I don't remember Titus looking like she's trying to look Townie, that's the difference. Cat can be a candidate for Cult Leader, sure.

[Nathann]

Bella can be Townie for not wanting to go within the CC's.

Cat has just had content that's pretty inoffensive but that made it seem like they're trying to have some sorta presence. There's not much more than that; I don't have a great case on them or anything.

[Nathann]

Bella, if you think I'm Town, you should vote me. My death is much better than a no-elimination, and I get to shoot someone.

Also I'd like everyone to give input on who they think is likely Cult outside of the Vengeful claims. BBT, includes you.

[Nathann]

Bella can be Townie for not wanting to go within the CC's.

Cat has just had content that's pretty inoffensive but that made it seem like they're trying to have some sorta presence. There's not much more than that; I don't have a great case on them or anything.

This is really weak, I have no idea why you'd townread someone for a purely mechanical argument.

Because I think the Cult Leader is not within the Vengeful claims. So it's pro-Town to be wanting to kill outside of them.

[Nathann]

Worth noting: No progression or rationale on the vote, no case for why he now think Beat is cult.

It's almost like I later on said as such.

[Nathann]

By the way, Nathann, even though you're talking to Jacket, would you mind quoting the posts on your rationale on Beat?

324 and 341.

[Nathann]

I can't find Nathann's role in cults plan

I wonder why.

[Nathann]

I'm kind of skeptical that Cult!Beat makes 412 when it seems likely that one of the people in the solve will get eliminated. If one of the people in there were to flip Town, she would be forced to re-evaluate, and I'm not sure Scum is likely to put themselves in that position voluntarily.

UNVOTE: Beat

BBT, do you want me to be your doublevoter for the Day? I think you're Town, and I think everyone is going to freak out wherever I vote voluntarily.

[Nathann]

Nathan, given that you know one of Jacket/RH9 is Cult, why have you put no work in to find CL from their posts?

I don't think it's likely to be helpful. I currently think Jacket is a Cultist. I know he's a good Scum player, and since he was the one to claim Vengeful, I think he thought his posts wouldn't be incriminating for the Cult Leader if/when he dies. The only conclusion I can draw from his ISO that I'm relatively certain about is that he's not Cult with you, which is not exactly useful to me.

[Nathann]

And it's even less useful to everyone else, since not many people think Jacket is the one fakeclaiming.

[Nathann]

I could do that. If I didn't have anything better to do today, I might would have. But it would just be analysis for analysis's sake, as I wouldn't exactly believe in it. Jacket is not a newbie.

My time might be better used arguing with you why claiming first as Cult could be beneficial.

[Nathann]

I think Titus is Town, but my offer still stands, BBT.

[Nathann]

You're tunnelled on "this action generates discussion" when there's other benefits that would outweigh the discussion generated, the Day was not heading to a no-elimination anyway since plurality is in effect, and it was likely at least one of the Vengeful Townies was going to claim Today, which would've still generated the discussion, except Cult wouldn't have gotten any Towncred from it.

[Nathann]

What makes you think it was likely that a Vengeful would claim today?

The fact that there was a decent amount of talk about it and agreement that Vengefuls should be claiming.

Can you expand on the benefits for Cult claiming Vengeful first?

We can agree that Cult wants at least one Vengeful claim, since otherwise the Town gets two confirmed Townies that are never getting eliminated, and that even if Culted, won't be able to use their Vengeful ability due to being confirmed not Cult Leader.

So the question is, should the fakeclaiming Cultist claim first?

One obvious advantage of not going first is knowing who you will be up against. However, Jacket was decently Townread at the time of his claim, which doesn't benefit him much as a non-fakeclaiming Prime Cultist (they want to be eliminated, after all), but will massively benefit him in winning the CC battles.

People are naturally inclined to Townread the first person to do it. Especially if they do it in the name of ~ generating content ~. Which is important when you think about what Cult wants with the CC's -- they don't want to be eliminated first. While it's still a positive, it confirms the other two people as Town. So it would benefit the Cult to get the Vengefuls eliminated first, hopefully get them to shoot one another. Then you get the confirmed Townies out of the game, and the Town is forced to either kill the outed Cultist to make sure he's not the Cult Leader, or just ignore him for the rest of the game and pray he isn't.

This is a bit longer way to say "Cult wants to win the CC's, and claiming first gets them Townread".

Oh, and I would kind of disagree with "it wasn't a misdirect". If the Town agrees to be killing within the claims, then it absolutely is a misdirect, because they'll be focused on discussing which non-Cult-Leader player to kill. And Town is likely to do that, because it's natural for Townies to want to kill scum, even if they're consciously aware they shouldn't be killing non-Leader Cult. And there's always that tiny possibility that the Cult Leader did claim.

[Nathann]

VOTE: Cat

[Nathann]

Voting me is dumb. I wouldn't be claiming vengeful as cult, period.

VOTE: Bella

Might as well go back to this, I think the diversion away from her at the end of the day is pretty telling.

Why not?

Enchant, do you think we should go outside of claims?

I don't want to go all game without sorting the Jacket/Nathan thing.

Prime Cultists' goal is to get eliminated, so that the Cult can recruit. So Jacket's claim of "I wouldn't claim Vengeful as Cult" is, uh, bad.

As long as you believe the Cult Leader isn't within the claims, you can just freeze the three of us out of the game. Since killing the Leader is the goal.

For the record, I don't think it's likely Jacket is a Cult Leader claiming Vengeful because the "not knowing who's CC'ing him" thing is much more risky once the Leader is claiming, he wasn't playing as a deepwolf/powerwolf, and he'd be betting the game on Town never eliminating the CC's. So, I'm fine with freezing us out.

[Nathann]

Hey guys, BBT and RH9 are both town, add that to Enchant and that's 3. 1 in Jacket/Nathann (prob Jacket), Korina Prime Cultist is my strongest read outside of that and I can kind of see Beat as CL.

This is about how I see the game right now. Which, surely it's not Scum!furtiveglance copying my reads in order to pocket me, when half the game thinks I'm a Cultist within the CC's, right? Right.

[Nathann]

Sorry for my absence, the game is just kind of... boring. In retrospect, I regret counterclaiming Vengeful, at least half the game wouldn't have been focused on that group then.

The only change in my reads recently is that Bellaphant seems Townie in the last few pages.

Does anyone mind if I just spend the Day sheeping BBT/RH9/Enchant?

[Nathann]

I haven't seen a cultist flip yet...I really want one, I don't care if it's leader!

Anyone agree and want to vote Jacket with me? Nathann? I know you think they're prime but STILL.......

I am voting anyone before Jacket. You do understand why killing a Prime is going directly against Town wincon, right?

[Nathann]

VOTE: Titus

[Nathann]

I feel like Titus's defeatism is IRL-related and thus NAI.

I hate the fact furtive is still trying to pass the "let's eliminate in the CC's" thing and wouldn't mind seeing them gone either. Nor Titus, really.

[Nathann]

We can do Titus first. I'm not really sure if that is Scum-indicative or stubborn-Townie-indicative.

[Nathann]

Well, for some reason, my hope of a good flip just disappeared.

Anyone else find it funny how Jacket hammered and "was good with" an elimination that both me and RH9 are voting for? No? Just me? Alright.

[Nathann]

Well, for some reason, my hope of a good flip just disappeared.

Anyone else find it funny how Jacket hammered and "was good with" an elimination that both me and RH9 are voting for? No? Just me? Alright.

Maybe he has a good reason?
I don't know really.
Though, let's hope that everything is good.

I'd love to hear a "good reason" for voting alongside at least one confirmed Cult and hoping to hit the Cult Leader.

[Nathann]

Why are we speedrunning a loss

IDK.
We're at 6:3, right now.
If we lim Prime, it'll be 5:3.

So, if we get a Prime Today, the Day ends as 5:2. Then Night happens, Enchant is converted, Day 4 is 5:3. Then Enchant immediately hammers no-elimination, game goes to Night, and Cult converts into 4:4.

That correct?

[Nathann]

Reread Jacket's ISO up to the claim. Don't have any hard conclusions other than "BBT Town". This game is great.

[Nathann]

What sin has furtiveglance committed other than repeatedly trying to suggest to eliminate in the Venge pool?

Part of me is wondering if a Cult Leader would've gotten the hint that that is not helping his slot.

[Nathann]

Beat can be a Cult Leader, sure.

I thought she was Town because I had a hard time seeing Scum making an early team case (me/Cat/Bella), because that forces them to have to re-evaluate. But looking back, Cat has flipped Town, and Beat has done... nothing to re-evaluate her position. So that case looks like an attempt at Towncred grabbing rather than a sincere attempt to solve.

VOTE: Beat

[Nathann]

Also Furitive is never CL here IMO

Like, if the game doesn’t end tomorrow, I want Furitive dead before endgame anyways

These two posts do not make any sense together.

[Nathann]

Furitive is cult-spewing and a cult flip would genuinely give more information than what Furitive’s providing

It's not worth letting Cult grow their numbers.

Say you suddenly know furtive is Cult. What does that information tell you?

[Nathann]

Beat, who do you think is the Cult Leader?

[Nathann]

I did at some point yesterday think "huh, wouldn't it be funny if Jacket were Cult Leader," but I'm not gonna let my paranoia consume me yet.

[Nathann]

When cat flipped town I took some time to reevaluate and ended up with the same conclusion.

When did this happen?

[Nathann]

When cat flipped town I took some time to reevaluate and ended up with the same conclusion.

When did this happen?

I mean I cant prove I did so because it was out of thread.

I'm not asking you to prove it. I'm asking you to show me what your thought process was there.

[Nathann]

I think it's 2 of Bellaphant/BBT/Korina.

Do you think it's likely BBT and Jacket are partners? Because that's one of the first pairs I ruled out.

[Nathann]

Furtive wanting to elim Jacket probably makes him Cult though. Maybe CL?

Kind of doubt it. Trying to go for a win here by eliminating Jacket seems kind of impossible to do, since literally nobody agrees with furtiveglance.

Which actually has me thinking. If the Cult could win today by eliminating Prime!Jacket... why is nobody giving support to furtiveglance? Could be either Cult!furtiveglance testing the waters by himself, or Town!furtiveglance actually hitting the Cult Leader.

I guess this train of thought isn't as useful as I'd hoped.

[Nathann]

I have another thought why Jacket might actually be Cult Leader, but... like everything else in this game, it's pure WIFOM and completely unreliable. And I wanna see furtiveglance answer that question first.

[Nathann]

I have another thought why Jacket might actually be Cult Leader, but... like everything else in this game, it's pure WIFOM and completely unreliable.

To explain this -- I think Jacket is a good Scum player. Definitely good enough to be able to do false associates. Or at the very least, make himself so annoying that we are either incapable of sorting, or we have to eliminate him. He's basically scumclaimed anyway, so why is he not getting in our way? One obvious answer is because he's not actually a Prime Cultist.

But it doesn't mean it's impossible Prime!Jacket is just lazy, I guess.

In slightly related news, I am back to thinking furtiveglance is Town. Does that mean I should be YOLO voting Jacket? I don't know.

[Nathann]

This post is a glorified prodge -- has anything happened in this game yet?

[Nathann]

Beat (3) [E-2]: BlueBloodedToffee, Nathann, Korina

The fact that this wagon is just sitting here for god knows how long without any movement in either direction...

If Beat is Cult Leader, either the Cult has completely given up, or... I don't know what else could be happening.
If Beat is a Prime, then other Cultists would be pushing her (finding this unlikely as I think BBT is Town).
If Beat is Town, then Cult would probably be doing fuck all.

Why does this silence give you good feelings, BBT?

[Nathann]

Titus (6) [Elimination]: Korina, BlueBloodedToffee, Nathann, RH9, Bellaphant, Jacket

Hm. Excluding the lolhammer, the dofference is that Bellaphant and RH9 aren't voting now. Interestingly enough, the base of the wagon is the same.

I'm currently too tired to be working out what that means. Though I'm not convinced this is gonna be a different kind of flip.

[Nathann]

He probably won't be jumping on anything unless to hammer. She hasn't been on E-1 yet.

[Nathann]

RH9, he's basically Scumclaimed. He's just posting nonsense to not get prodded.

[Nathann]

Did we win yet?

[Nathann]

I am still in this game!

[Nathann]

Unironically fine with Enchant killing Jacket here. Or killing another suspected VT-or-CL and then us killing Jacket tomorrow. I'm over this game.

[Nathann]

I find Jacket's posts really entertaining.

[Nathann]

Yesterday, I was under the impression that killing a Prime Today is autoloss. I just realized that that is not actually the case. So my last hesitation about killing Jacket Today is gone.

Obviously it's not up to me, but you know what I mean.

[Nathann]

I'm convinced.

[Nathann]

Hm.

furtiveglance flipping Town would increase the odds of Jacket being a Cult Leader, I think. Because Jacket is obvious Cult, and if furtiveglance were Town pushing a Prime Cultist, I think at least one Cultist would've jumped on that.

If he's a Prime... I'm not sure what to make of it, really. Assuming Prime!Jacket, but I'm not sure. Could be a distancing attempt; Jacket is smart enough to coach him for that.

[Nathann]

I'm fine turbokilling Jacket if furtiveglance flipped Town.

[Nathann]

Aye i think i am ready for decision.

So, about this...

[Nathann]

Awesome, thanks.

[Nathann]

Korina was obviously not Cult Leader, why... We could've gotten information from a furtiveglance flip.

Why is Bella Cult Leader? I'm pretty much at a loss who it is.

[Nathann]

The fact that BBT and Bella suddenly both went guns blazing at each other kind of makes me suspect Cultists' theatre. Not sure which flavour, though.

I'm a bit busy tonight, will try to reread in the morning.

[Nathann]

Nathan, you understand that FMPOV it absolutely has to be Bella/Furtive/Jacket, right?

...I will pretend like I thought it through that far.

[Nathann]

I'm guessing the fact there's been no quickhammer by now means there's no Town-on-Prime or Town-on-Town votes.

I'm really sorry for being MIA, life is being really annoying right now. But since all 4 Townies have to vote correctly Today, I'm just going to be voting along RH9 and Enchant anyway. And I'm not sure if I'd be of any help solving this.

Still have a vague gut feeling Jacket might be the Cult Leader, but I'd have to revisit BBT and Bella's posting to see if that universe tracks. BBT was arguing in favour of Jacket being Town after the claim...

How much push was there from Bella/BBT/furtive, that we know have at least 2/3 Cult members, for resolving the Vengeful claims? Especially in the early times after the claims. Killing either Prime Cultists or Vengefuls is overall beneficial to the Cult. If they were not trying to get the claimed Vengefuls killed, that could point towards Jacket being a gambiting Cult Leader.

I'll try to sanity check this universe tomorrow.

[Nathann]

Spoiler:

6 pages of set up talk made that an incredibly difficult read.

VOTE: Jacket

UNVOTE:

Alright, so we got the Governor claim and two vengefuls.

Narrows the game down a bit providing no CCs. Will give this game some proper time once I finish work today

I'll go between the vengefuls today I think.

Nathan or Jacket. Not fussed which

For anyone wondering;

Good catch.
Do you think that BBT should be Venged?

Could you remind me when to watch out for Vengeful claims?

This *could* be scum with great foresight but I just don't see it.

RH9 is looking for advice from someone they believe is town on how to play his role.

If we agree that Scum!Jacket isn't first to claim, then that leaves Nathan.

I'm in line with Korina's thinking on elimming a Cultist.

This is a weird progression from BBT.

He had his spat with Jacket early on in the game. The two of them went back and forth, without anyone else commenting much on the spat. Then Jacket and RH9 claim, he unvotes them. I claim, and he wants to eliminate within the Vengeful claims.

Here's what's interesting, though. In 284, he says he's not fussed which one of me and Jacket go. But in 294, and some future posts like 326, he's defending Jacket due to him claiming Vengeful first.

My question is, if he thinks Jacket is likely to be Town for claiming first, why doesn't he immediately Townread him for it in 284?

[Nathann]

I might be talking myself into Jacket being the Cult Leader and I don't know how I feel about it.

[Nathann]

Bella can be Townie for not wanting to go within the CC's.

Heh.

[Nathann]

VOTE: Jacket

This was Townie... But BBT got talked out of it immediately. All Jacket had to say was "I don't claim Venge as Cult" and there's an unvote. He even thinks it's likely there's a Leader fakeclaiming Vengeful, but nah.

Bella's 516 is weird to make if Jacket is Cult Leader, though. It seems that all of furtive/Bella/BBT are either voting there or testing the waters. Which would make Jacket!Leader theory wrong, right...?

[Nathann]

And there was a wagon on Bella around EoD1, by Beat, Enchant, Korina, Cat. All confirmed Townies. If Bella were a Prime cultist, why is there no Cultists jumping onto the wagon? BBT was there. furtive was there.

[Nathann]

If Bella is Cult Leader, then the Prime Cultists necessarily have to be Jacket and furtive. (Can't be Jacket and BBT because Cult would've piled onto Jacket by now.) Which I guess makes some sense? I'm gonna revisit the wagon where Jacket Scumclaimed.

[Nathann]

Voting me is dumb. I wouldn't be claiming vengeful as cult, period.

VOTE: Bella

Might as well go back to this, I think the diversion away from her at the end of the day is pretty telling.

...

[Nathann]

I started with the assumption that Prime Cultists wouldn't vote their Leader, and went from there.

BBT voted Bella and Jacket.
Bella voted BBT and Jacket.
furtive voted Jacket.
Jacket voted BBT and Bella.

each of the 4 of them got voted twice by others, except for furtive that didn't get voted at all. I thought that was out Cult Leader, but only then I realized he cannot be. If he's the Leader, Jacket has to be Prime, and one of BBT/Bella has to be Prime. But whichever one of them were Prime would've gotten hammered for the win by now. So that's not it.

So, at least at some point did at least Prime vote their Leader. Very useful info, I know.

[Nathann]

I have laid out clearly why it is Bella.

Can you link it? I skipped some pages from Today since I wanted to focus on interactions from the previous Days.

[Nathann]

Thanks, BBT.

Looking at this game purely mathematically, the only possible worlds are:
> Bella as the Cult Leader, Jacket + furtive as Primes (Town!BBT)
> BBT as the Cult Leader, Jacket + furtive as Primes (Town!Bella)
> Jacket as the Cult Leader, BBT + Bella as Primes (Town!furtive)

I don't know what to think otherwise. The fact that Bella's wagon existed on Day 1 with only confirmed Townies touching it, and furtive straight up avoiding look off. But then Jacket did vote Bella on Day 2. But we also know a Prime did vote their Leader at least once in the game.

I'm slightly inclined to vote Bella right now, somewhat because I still wanna believe I read the BBT/Jacket interactions as non S/S correctly, but I'm nowhere near sold on it. RH9, Enchant?

[Nathann]

VOTE: Bellaphant

Unlucky guys.

?

This wasn't a hammer. Did Enchant stop them mid-quickhammer or what?

[Nathann]

RH9, Nathann.

Need to discuss, what you think?

I think my head hurts. Assuming that vote from furtive is a Scumclaim, that means we live in one of the first two worlds I outlined in 1159 - Jacket and furtive are Primes, with BBT or Bella being the Leader.

No clue why Primes keep Scumclaiming. I'm assuming they're losing and are trying these weird plays as a last resort, but hell if I know.

[Nathann]

I CC Governor.

[Nathann]

Anyway. The time between 1174 and 1175 is 11 seconds.

IF Enchant had just voted Town!Bella, then all the Cult needs to do is get furtive and Jacket to quickhammer her for the win. If that is what was happening, surely Jacket wouldn't have taken 10+ seconds to actually place the other vote down? Especially since the Cult does have daytalk.

Which is to say, that is a last-ditch Cult gambit and not a failed hammer, I'm assuming.

[Nathann]

I do think it's Bella, but I don't like responsibility, though. Why do you think it's BBT?

[Nathann]

VOTE: Bella

[Nathann]

He's not, I'm actually Scum with him.

[Nathann]

Whoa, we actually won.

Thanks for modding, Goldfish!

Apologies to BBT, I imagine this last day must have been really frustrating. Thanks for the carry.