What does this mean and how does it help us?
Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellas
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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But that is just normal play, right? How does rushing through the eliminations benefit us?In post 21, Titus wrote:For scum, the odds of avoiding two wagons is hard. We can drive two people up and the choices made will be extremely useful in the future. That's the whole point of VCA.
We get two wagons, flip one. Look at the result and then decide if we want to flip the other one. The positions people take should be invaluable.
I believe the only confirmed innocent is from the inform action, which gives a permanent no nightkill to the recipient (I asked the mod, so I'm like 95% sure I get this.)
Bad idea. The game starts with 12 players so that we end up on odds with the extra elim.In post 34, GoldfishFromTheMoon wrote:
We can no-eliminate on the current elimination (the additional effect phase one) but not on the regular elimination.In post 32, Alianna wrote:Which is the end anyway because we can’t no-vote.-
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You're right... not sure why I said 12.In post 51, Alianna wrote:12 players? There’s only 9.
The only ways to stop the kill are the inform bulletproof and the imprison action
I still think it is better to eliminate twice today and then chance having to no eliminate later down the line. This also stops mafia from shooting at the informed player twice later with no consequence.-
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All the more reason to double eliminate todayIn post 55, Flea The Magician wrote:My understanding of the rules is the N1 kill has already been submitted, as each one is submitted a night in advance.-
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If we're wrong and vote out a town player but it's who the mafia submitted in advance then a kill is still deniedIn post 66, GoldfishFromTheMoon wrote:
I'm not sure I follow, how does kill being presubmitted mean we should double eliminateIn post 65, Dunnstral wrote:
All the more reason to double eliminate todayIn post 55, Flea The Magician wrote:My understanding of the rules is the N1 kill has already been submitted, as each one is submitted a night in advance.-
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You're right. So do you think we should no eliminate here so we're not suck on evens?In post 70, Radical Rat wrote:This is our one and only chance at a no lim. Regular eliminations are mandatory-
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I'm going to point back to thisIn post 54, Dunnstral wrote:This also stops mafia from shooting at the informed player twice later with no consequence.-
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Not using the double elim lets the mafia shoot at the imprisoned person twice and bring the game to evens, which we then can't fix. So at the end we end up with 4 person alive and the clear is deadIn post 85, Radical Rat wrote:
I don't understand what you mean here. The only situation in which they would shoot the same slot twice is if we used Imprison, and they didn't change their minds on the kill the next night. But I don't see what double eliminating today has to do with that.In post 54, Dunnstral wrote:This also stops mafia from shooting at the informed player twice later with no consequence.-
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Let me give an example to counter Flea above:
Day 1/night 1 no elim and then elim:
9 -> 1:1 -> 7
Day 2/night 2 imprison is used and fails:
7 -> 1:1 -> 5
Day 3/night 3 mafia makes a player bulletproof and shoots at them:
5 -> 1:0 > 4
Day 4/night 4:
4 -> 1:1 > 2
In post 1, MegAzumarill wrote:-Inform, the mafia chooses a player to gain bulletproof. The first vote of the day will tell the voted player what alignment the chosen player is at the start of the night phase.-
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Doesn't really make sense then because they were also talking about no eliminating before the vote.In post 154, GoldfishFromTheMoon wrote: That said I don't like post 82 though, it feels odd, and not like something cat would normally do. It's not bad enough by itself for me to vote her but it seems strange.-
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We're still going to have to vote someone after this. Who should that player be?In post 167, furtiveglance wrote:I don't really know what to say at the moment, I'm waiting for someone to hammer No Eliminate. Not really sure why I'm the other option, hence my wariness of RR and Titus which I mentioned before. Notably they didn't engage with that, Radical Rat preferred to talk mech. Go figure.-
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There is going to be an elimination regardless. If we no eliminate here, we still have to eliminate today. Putting it off won't make it go away, and you're likely still going to be voted for by Radical Rat and Titus.In post 175, furtiveglance wrote:
1) To suggest I am acting disingenously is very offensive and slander. I am pointing out the situation, which is that I am the only player with any votes. So a pivot isn't gonna happen now, even if I wanted one.In post 172, Dunnstral wrote:Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous
2) I don't want to eliminate. For the very simple reason that town always get voted day 1.
It's not slander. Saying the pivot won't happen and so you have no choice but to no eliminateisdisingenuous. If you changed your mind, we could probably eliminate somebody else.-
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Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votesIn post 184, GoldfishFromTheMoon wrote:So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.
If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%
If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today-
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In post 186, Radical Rat wrote:
I haven't double checked the math because I'm lazy, but I think this is actually a really good way to go about this. We can popcorn and nominate two townreads each, and then eliminate from what remains.In post 185, Dunnstral wrote:
Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votesIn post 184, GoldfishFromTheMoon wrote:So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.
If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%
If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia todaySpoiler:
The numbers are actually off because it doesn't account for the fact that the first elimination removes a player from the pool. The actual chances are slightly higher than shown.-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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It certainly helps to reframe the argument.
If you are town, and you have 1 townread, and you exclude yourself. Your chance of voting out mafia in 2 eliminations is greater than 50%.
To argue that the day 1 elimination is completely random is likely incorrect. I challenge people to be able to have 1 townread rather than defaulting to a no-elimination.
If you have a slight scumlean, you should be voting for them instead of voting to not eliminate. 2 eliminations isnotworse than 1. Eliminations are the towns tool, mafia use the night kills. When have you ever played a game of mafia as town and tried to eliminate as few times as possible?
I pointed out that mafia have the option of forcing the same situation where there's 4 players alive whether we no eliminate today or not. So the only argument left is that we will somehow have more information later, but we can't get information later if we no eliminate. And the information we get later is worth more when there are less players alive, anyways.-
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I don't like 167 from furtiveglance because they enter the thread saying they have nothing to say and that they're just waiting. That looks like mafia and on top of that they posted 175 and 178 which I also don't like due to the arguments being used such as saying that town always gets eliminated day 1 (not true!), saying that a pivot can't happen because only they have votes (not true!), and phrases like "this is blatantly accusing me of being mafia" which seems evident but is framed as if it is outrageous.
Not sure why Alianna then immediately agreed with those posts or called 172 a strongman (it isn't).
I did understand what Alianna was getting at in 178 and don't like that furtiveglance seemed to be going a different direction with it in 180.
Oh and their reads are the 2 people pushing them are mafia, but they won't push there unless prodded.
VOTE: furtiveglance-
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Not sure what you mean, I was votingIn post 280, Titus wrote:
Then where was the effort by anyone to hunt? Why was it like pulling teeth?In post 266, GoldfishFromTheMoon wrote:
You keep talking about scum trying to deny information, but I don't think that's the case here. By giving us the kill action today, I think scum beleived they could steer the game towards two miseliminations on day 1 which is good for them. So I think scum would actually want to go ahead with the second elimination unless the wagons were on them and it looked likely to be a scum elim.In post 260, Titus wrote:
Like I said. Town can disagree. Scum jump on the opportunity to silence town and deny information.In post 236, Flea The Magician wrote:I'm the main one pushing her no kill.
Titus needs to give her reasoning for the furtive vote an why not me when I'm clearly being called scum in that post as the main person pushing for no kill.
Why aren't players like Dunn actively voting, knowing it's the right thing to do?
We don't no lim on Day 1 and now we're doing the equivalent.-
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In post 299, Alianna wrote:Though I think both Titus and furtive are sus, I think it’s unlikely they’re the team.-
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How does this make sense if you're town?In post 306, Cat.Jpeg wrote:This also feels like ur scumreading me just so ppl dont think we are a scumteam.-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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But you originally called them scum because they had you both as scum together. But they don't, and now you're saying they're keeping their options open instead.In post 327, Titus wrote:
Right. A is keeping their options open.In post 303, Dunnstral wrote:In post 299, Alianna wrote:Though I think both Titus and furtive are sus, I think it’s unlikely they’re the team.
How are their reads different from town who is giving a reads list?-
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Go onIn post 371, Titus wrote:Dunn might be scum here.-
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Not trueIn post 376, Titus wrote:Scum!Dunn struggles with content
Also not trueIn post 376, Titus wrote:and I saw you elsewhere.-
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Instead of just saying no you I will go ahead and substantiate my claims. To be clear, I am saying that Titus is lying in her last post.
My last post on site was from before my prod in this game. 351
As for the activity tell, here:
Spoiler:
I'm not saying that my activity here makes me town, but claiming it is my meta to lurk as scum doesn't appear to be correct and I think that the above proves that.-
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I did not know who I wanted to eliminate.In post 398, Radical Rat wrote:Having said that, why aren't you voting, Dunn? For anyone?-
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Why would they hate that?In post 556, Cat.Jpeg wrote:I thought inform would be really OP but in order from most impactful to least the mafia can: get the BP elimmed, get one of the mafia informed, NK the informed, get the informed elimmed (highly unlikely but possible), or get the BP to be informed so they just have a townread of themselves (which if one of the mafia were informed they would probably pretend this is what had happened or give a townread of their partner), to soften the blow to them.
We're at evens right now.-
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I voted them because they were lying to push me, not just because they scumread me.In post 534, MalcolmTucker wrote:
This only makes you look worse to me though. It suggests you were voting for Titus to go out not because you necessarily read them as scum, but just because they were trying to push you. I understand it's frustrating if Titus twisted the truth to suspect you, but in my experience scum try to look less deliberately scummy than that. I get the first turn is difficult but not keen on someone being on the Titus wagon solely due to how they individually were read by Titus.In post 530, Dunnstral wrote:I wasn't pushing Titus until the end when she came at me when she lied to try to push me
I even said I didn't think what they were doing was scummy right before that.
I agree with RR in 397
If you think scum don't do that, then you should have told that to me yesterday before Titus was eliminated. I don't think town do that, so I voted for Titus.-
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VOTE: Dunnstral
This is the best vote. You guys might not like it, but it's true. Mafia are very unlikely to have confirmed my alignment
It also makes things a lot simpler. All you have to do is figure out whether I am town or not. Whereas a vote for Goldfish means we need to figure out both if goldfish is town, and if furtive/malcolm/whoever are mafia trying to push it onto the townie who is also the bp,-
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Going to need more than "bad vibes" at this stage of the game.In post 562, furtiveglance wrote:What if we think you aren't town?-
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I'm not comfortable with:
1) Following early consensus
Because:
1b) I am worried we will target a town player who will see themselves as town. Which is not inherently clearing information, as mafia can lie about that as well
And:
2) Following the opinions of those who pushed to skip the elimination yesterday
Because:
2b) Skipping the elimination was wrong and I explained why.
I think that the elimination landing on Titus who was also the choice for night kill changes things. There's only been one death out of 3. I didn't like the idea of 2 deaths out of 3 because mafia could force it to evens anyway. In the end, we ended up at evens by sheer chance. I would not normally have voted for Titus yesterday.
So that was kind of rambly but I think that mafia were both pushing to not eliminate and pushing somebody besides Titus yesterday.
As for Goldfish, I lean town.-
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Because it doesn't say why in the spoilered parts and instead seems to be setting up for a townread on meIn post 605, Dunnstral wrote:Not sure why I gain sus in the post above-
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nopeIn post 624, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR-
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Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, FleaIn post 662, Cat.Jpeg wrote:@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm
That is where I am at with reads
As for thought process, what do you want to know?-
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1) Sure, why not. I wasn't focused on that thoughIn post 668, furtiveglance wrote:
These reads are really strange.In post 664, Dunnstral wrote:
Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, FleaIn post 662, Cat.Jpeg wrote:@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm
That is where I am at with reads
As for thought process, what do you want to know?
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever
Scumcase me. How did you get here?
2) Sure, why not
3) As pointed out you did do this
4) Maybe. I didn't call you the worst scum team ever though.
None of those 4 points make me not scumread you-
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I still think FurtiveGlance is scummy from the start of the game and they way they overblow things. Malcolm feels like they are maneuvering in a scummy way. I don't trust Malcolm's reads or how they got there.In post 681, Cat.Jpeg wrote:
Why do you read each person that way?In post 664, Dunnstral wrote:As for thought process, what do you want to know?-
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Mafia are allowed to shoot at the bulletproof player, so at the very least it is in their ballpark whether we are at evens or odds, no matter if Titus gets eliminated or not. I pointed this out earlier when I argued to use the double eliminate.In post 718, Alianna wrote:
I really don't think that's true. There are clear benefits to not voting out the NK target. I cannot for the life of me come up with the words to explain why but this feels like you did that.In post 704, furtiveglance wrote:I also disagree about my defence. It's less 'I wouldn't do that' and more 'No one would do that'.-
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The inform, bp, and night kill have already all been decided
And you indicated that you think Goldfish is a light townread.
Malcolm's 761 above where he points at me and calls Furtive a more difficult elimination than radical rat while implying it's all to protect me is crazy. Why is my name in that conversation at all?-
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Why does it have no chance of going through?In post 771, Alianna wrote:Not to say that I think you should vote furtive, but if you still scumread them both, it doesn't make sense that you would vote on a wagon with no chance of going through.-
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The track target would not be confirmed innocent.
Even if we eliminate mafia today, the mafia we eliminated can still be the person who performs the kill during the night phase. The track has to hit the correct member of the mafia.They also send a player to kill and which one of them perform the kill on the NEXT night phase. This cannot be changed.-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 40153
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him