Open 847 - Trust Fall [Game Over]

[Greeting]

Checking in!

I guess one has to think really deeply before offering to trust to anyone in this game. I love the idea though, very interesting!

[Greeting]

This game might be the first time in my life when my trust issues give me an advantage.

[Greeting]

damn it's really hard to actuall yget good reads on people this game because town and scum have the same goal

I think this game is unique in two ways.

First is the fact that it relies on townhunting and not scumhunting specifically. If you're town, it is not your goal to determine who is scum, but who is not scum and leave the game with that player. Town can afford only one mistake at most. And, I mean, if town loses, it can be very largely blamed on just two players who erred in their judgement and that's pretty damning.

Second is the fact that there isn't a lot of teamwork to be done if you're town. A town win is a sum of individual correct decisions made by six to seven town-aligned players.

[Greeting]

@Prism

I have a question. Is it possible for more pairings to occur during twilight?

[Greeting]

We have just 3 days until EoD? This feels shorter than usual mafia.

Edit: The day was just 5 days to begin with. Makes sense.

[Greeting]

I have read the thread, had not time to respond, but there is something that stuck in mind. I think it was from

chavela

and regarded game strategy.

I will requote what I had said before:

Second is the fact that there isn't a lot of teamwork to be done if you're town. A town win is a sum of individual correct decisions made by six to seven town-aligned players.

I would say that finding two townies collectively is not helpful at all and is more likely to benefit scum. I feel like a scum could benefit directly from being a mastermind behind a successful townie matchup and then use this to escape themselves by having built trust from others. This could actually be a great strategy - to be a scum mastermind, matching two pairs, then having your partner matched with a townie and then pressuring town into matching with yourself using past credibility. Town could fall for this.

Plus, even if the mastermind is town, it all relies on individual trust and it would be very bizarre if everyone just trusted one player and followed them.

Which is why I feel that from the town perspective this is a game played by 8 individuals who just have a common goal, rather than a team who needs teamwork.

[Greeting]

Meuh's entrance in 81 makes me feel like if I made a trust offer, she accepted and turned out to be scum I wouldn't even be mad.

[Greeting]

you guys will help me. once the second person puts their trust on me, it will be clear that my mission is just and profound.

I against Polygamy.

[Greeting]

yeah maybe yeah

Greeting should really trust Meuh though.

No need to rush.

[Greeting]

Could Greeting and Tris come in here and towntell or scumtell plz, thanks.
Oh and idk if i trust Meuh yet, they feel smooth and make nice beautiful thesaurus posts, but are we actually sure they are town indicative and not just pretty?

Who knows? Maybe she's

[Greeting]

i mean, i obviously completely disagree on a basic level but we've disagreed on approach to games before and such

like it is much harder for mafia to 'mastermind' as you are referring to it here then it is for mafia to simply be townread by one singular town, yes?

Have we played before? I don't remember you.

Actually trying to mastermind or at least help out a townie in masterminding would be my first instinct for gameplay here as scum. I think it's significantly easier to manipulate a collective than 8 individuals. Especially since you need to keep your options open in case someone doesn't reciprocate. Then you can pressure townies into matching with people they normally wouldn't consider and say they're anti-town for refusing to participate.

Then again, it's my first time playing this setup so I have literally zero experience. My instincts tell me that approaching everyone individually and asking them about their potentially questionable choices would be the best way to avoid any potential mismatches.

[Greeting]

like it is much much harder for a mafia to fool a collective town than to fool a single player

so i don't really get how that would benefit scum more than town

***

peer pressure

***

+

The loss of this game for town can be basically blamed on two players. In case the leader is wrong, the loss can be blamed on them instead.

Have we played before? I don't remember you.

we played together in achromatic calamity - me as anahit

Thanks for claiming your main, I appreciate it. Meta is of no use in this game anyway, but it's nice to know.

[Greeting]

I want to make a trust offer to either

Meuh

or

NorwegianboyEE

. I think both of these spots are town. Any objections, thoughts?

[Greeting]

norwee would prefer if you trust with him i think, but i dont think he would accept it this early

I know that I didn’t post much this game and so I might not have proven myself to be very towny. But from my perspective, I need to choose someone I can most likely trust and posts of these two sound like it.

[Greeting]

honestly i'd rather wait for tris and andante before we move on with the day. but i hope meuh is town and they won't immediately accept.

I’ll wait with making an actual, formal offer until afternoon/evening, maybe someone does have objections after all.

[Greeting]

I am worried Meuh is a wolf, so i’ll share my very worried reservations about your decision to potentially trust them.
But it’s not like i can stop you if you do it anyway.

Objection noted.

Norwee

, if I made you a trust offer today, how likely would you be to accept it and why?

[Greeting]

I would probably not accept it.
I’ve spontaneously decided that i want to stay in this game for longer and not leave early.

That’s fair enough.

[Greeting]

I will be at V/LA until at least the end of this day and probably for the beginning of the next one, so I will re-read the thread and hopefully come up with a trust offer.

I will not be offering to trust

NorwegianboyEE

, because it will not be reciprocated. I do think this is a towny player though.

[Greeting]

I don't agree with

Meuh

's 288. I feel the exact opposite - we should avoid scums getting out from the game at all as the fact that two players are desperate to win someone's trust and get out from the game will be more visible.

I don't think I can fully trust

Meuh

yet.

[Greeting]

I could make a trust offer to

chavela

tbf. This sounds like slot who has an exceptionally low chance of being scum. But would they reciprocate? Given the fact that they have two trust offers already and don't seem to keen on even considering any of them, I doubt it.

..then again, I don't see myself trusting neither

bugspray

nor

humaneatingmonkey

so far.

[Greeting]

Is getting out today important to you?

No, but getting out eventually with someone whom I am very sure (ideally 100%) is town is my priority for town to win the game. The way I see it, 7 to 8 townies have an individual task to do and I’m trying to do mine.

It is also extremely important for me not to waste my vote or throw it around because I have only one per day.

If no one whom I think is worthy of a trust offer is willing to reciprocate then there is no point in me making any offers for the sake of it. They will change nothing. I have to either change my mind about someone else or wait for one player I trust to trust me back.

[Greeting]

Okay, the only players I’m comfortable trusting are

Norwee

and

chavela

. I don’t think

chavela

would accept my offer nor an offer from anyone tbf.

So I guess there will be no offer from me to anyone this day.

[Greeting]

I'm back! Glad that Day 1 ended up in a successful, townie pairing. I wouldn't find myself trusting either of these two though. Hello

Kuriyama

and

the worst

!

Now time to catch up.

[Greeting]

greeting can be town sure

Sure, I am, but I wonder how you came to this conclusion with all the posts I've made this game? I've been pretty task-focused in this game and didn't comment a lot.

[Greeting]

though meuh's post does make a weird assumption of

the mafia leaving the game in general

and kinda has that time traveler element to it

of almost looking back at actions

as step by step later is better than sooner

because! later could become never but sooner cannot if it has already happened

I feel like the strategy

Meuh

presented is more likely to benefit scum than town and the explanation is just kinda there to cover it up. It's a case of looking at her intention and not picking on her gameplay. I mean, letting any scum out with a town pairing brings scum closer and town further from victory so in my eyes that is something that needs to be prevented and not encouraged.

It's kinda like saying in a usual mafia game that we should vote out some townies because getting scum should be easier later. Meant to sound well-intentioned, but really is shady.

This game, however, is essentially townhunting and not scumhunting. So I'm not scumreading

Meuh

per se

- just not townreading or trusting her enough to offer a way out for both of us.

[Greeting]

Okay so these 2 posts feel scummy.

Whether deliberately or not, 663 pretty clearly misses the point of 288, in which I was talking about a specific theoretical from Norwee which assumes scum exiting the game at all. Greeting could've quoted Norwee's 283 and ended up with a point that makes just as much sense, since Norwee, in this post, also assumes the instance in which a scum player exits the game at one point.
The train of logic Greeting supposedly uses to end up thinking I'm scum doesn't really make sense to me.
It would have to be "Meuh suggests we should purposely eliminate a scum member" (which I pretty clearly did not suggest) -> Meuh is scummy
But the opposite line of logic, made in bad faith, does make sense. I want to scumread Meuh (or perhaps anyone) -> hey, this post seems like something I could point to as scummy
Maybe Greeting genuinely didn't get my post but I don't understand how they could end up doing that but not see anything wrong with the theoretical Norwee was proposing in the first place?

Also, the fixation on what proposal to make from Greeting in 664 just feels off. I don't know why town!Greeting would be so interested on where to place his vote. It's hard not to read as if he's looking to get out of here ASAP. They kinda justify it in 666 and 667 but this still doesn't make sense to me. "getting out eventually with someone whom I am very sure (ideally 100%) is town is my priority for town to win the game." is apparently the thought process behind it, so that Greeting is thinking long-term. However, 664 feels oriented on the short term, where to place his trust vote

right now

, or at least

today

.
This approach of narrowing down the options for pairings has me really uneasy, I can't say I've placed much mind on the pairings so far, unless it was brought up by someone else. (But I guess the day end is drawing nearer, maybe there's a need to shift a bit more from individual reading and more to forming an actual pairing?)
Perhaps Greeting is just approaching the game differently than me and has a different mentality, but I just don't really get it if he is.

I don't think that it's what

Norwee

wanted to convey though, he was speculating about something that might happen later in the game. Your post made it sound like a potential strategy town should consider taking. But there is a piece of information that's missing here and probably confusing you. It's the fact that

chavela

has laid out the exact same point earlier (in a strategic way, just like yours) and I didn't come at them for it, but came for you instead.

Here's why: I didn't read the thread carefully enough.

This is actually a really bad mistake on my part, given the fact that I was speculating on whether to offer to trust

chavela

in Day 1. Now I know that I won't.

As for the rest: I've laid all my cards on the table with my strategy in this game. I feel that I am one individual who happens to share a goal with 7 others - and that is to find someone who is 100% town and to exit the game with them. If you think of the game this way, you start to look for a potential partner to exit with. I absolutely do feel that matches should be consulted, because any potential error of judgement can be fatal so we all have to think thrice before offering or taking a trust. I don't have a better idea to approach this game so I'm probably going to continue this strategy for the remainder of my presence in it. Unless I get a better idea, but I probably won't.

[Greeting]

i think she just likes Meuh too

Just like town loves to vote me out in usual mafia when I'm town, in this game I'll probably be the spinster.

[Greeting]

I am 100% down to trust

the worst

today just like I was to trust

Norwee

Day 1.

[Greeting]

Greeting, looks like you have town!Duck and scum!Meuh

Do you think you're getting off the island or is it gonna be you and me and the scumteam?

You are correct about me townreading

the worst

, but incorrect about me scumreading

Meuh

. She could very well be town, it’s just not everything in the game she said is pointing to it. This game is townhunting and not scumhunting so I believe there is no point in differentiating scumreads from nullreads.

I think it will be quite unlikely for most players to offer a trust to me so it’ll have to be someone accepting my trust and truthfully, at the moment I don’t trust the majority well enough. So yeah, everything so far is pointing towards me staying until lategame and possibly endgame.

As for you, I don’t see myself extending a trust offer to you, nor do I see anyone else doing that so scum or town, you’re likely to stay in the game too.

[Greeting]

i dont think scum are playing much at all this game

it's like all the townies are mingling and they mingled a lot early and it's too hard now for scum to really break into the core

I kinda agree tbf. My problem is that there's not nearly enough players I'm confident are town.

[Greeting]

% chance on meuh/the worst distancing?

anyone can answer this

though i guess maybe the worst and meuh weighing in wouldn't be all that helpful

I’m townreading ducky. They’re pretty spot-on with their judgement of my behavior in this game tbf (1182). In fact, I’d be more suspicious of players who are overenthusiastic about my play townsolving me this instant.

[Greeting]

Meuh

, if you had to decide right now, whom would you be willing to offer to trust the most?

[Greeting]

Here goes nothing. I was thinking quite hard whether to do this or not, but I figured that there's no point in waiting unnecessarily. This is the best candidate for my vote.

VOTE: the worst

Ball's in your court, ducky.

[Greeting]

Why is everyone suddenly scumreading

the worst

and panicking over my trust offer? They didn't even say they are townreading me.

the worst

is literally my biggest townlean in this game, as was

Norwee

whom ducky replaced. I have indicated willingness to trust them long before I made the actual offer.

[Greeting]

it doesn't really make any sense that the worst would be your biggest townread right now

like how would the worst be more likely to be town than me or ydrasse or even meuh,

and because if the worst leaves with you and is mafia it causes the same issue i outlined earlier with regards to ydrasse

like ydrasse/kuriyama isn't necessarily my preferred pairing right now

but it is the one that is there and i like it better than no action being taken i think

I had a million more doubts about both

Enchant

and

humaneatingmonkey

than I have about ducky's content. And both of these slots turned out to be town.

Norwee

's content felt genuine.

the worst

's content feels genuine. What's so scummy about them?

[Greeting]

like the suggesting other pairings at crunch time and the trust of ydrasse here

would both be expected from mafia

like can be explained as town but would be expected from mafia the worst

whereas mechanically there are more likely towns

so you ignoring that and deciding the worst is the towniest is confusing

I had a feeling about this slot Day 1 and it hasn't changed. I just kinda... stuck with it.

I don't know how to confidently townread slots who have a gameplay like

Enchant

or

Ydrasse

- posting a lot of

fluff

light-hearted content and then suddenly overload the game with content in-between. I don't think this playstyle is necessarily bad, it's just something I cannot vibe with. I find it really hard to follow where they're at at the moment, because they seem to be everywhere at the same time and that's why I usually try to sort elsewhere.

But I know that other players do and often with good results. So I leave it up to them and don't think about it that much.

I was townreading you, but then 1193 happened and I started to doubt that judgement. I still think you're more likely to be town though.

I figured that I could keep waiting and get nullread and ignored for the rest of the game (not that it's something I blame everyone for - I am, after all the least active) or just pick someone whom I confidently trust and see what happens. It's probably not convincing, but it's just the truth about my gameplay in this setup.

[Greeting]

Greeting -- I would probably consider chavela someone who has a similar level of innate intensity to their gameplay than me (sorry shiki i hope that is a compliment) And I'm kind of surprised chavela doesn't top out your list.

I also feel like you have a lot of awareness of how the mechanics of this setup should inform dayplay, but I dont really feel like you've acknowledged a few things which strike me as like, profoundly mechanically pertinent.

- why would scum!chavela spend the second half of d1 forcing town to open their third eye and reevaluate their reads, but then stick around for d2 if she was scum?
- why would kuriyama not immediately leave with ydrasse; why would ydrasse not immediately leave with kuriyama?
- (much more fresh) why would meuh not immediately leave with her choice of pav/spray?

Why do we have to assume that mafia would jump at the first opportunity to get out from the game if there's both of them remaining in the game? Why does not accepting a trust from someone immediately has to point to them being town? I don't think it's as mechanically obvious as it sounds. Both scums have to exit the game. The two of them have to figure out a way to get out scum 1 and scum 2. If one of them gets out too early and the other is universally scumread they still won't win.

I don't differentiate null reads from scum reads but in this game I agree with

Pavowski

and

bugspray

being the least towny of all. They don't have to both necessarily be scum, but I think at least one of them is. But, if, for instance, we assume that the team is

Meuh

/

chavela

and

Pavowski

,

Meuh

/

chavela

who are much more townread than

Pavowski

can get out of the game with relative ease, but would leave their scum teammate behind, with a small chance of winning.

If I were scum, I would definitely consider how does my teammate look to townies and perhaps try to manoeuvre town into trusting them first.

[Greeting]

I kinda feel this happened partly thanks to my trust offer which scared the hell out of everyone.

[Greeting]

the worst
meuh, chavela*
greeting
pavowski
bugspray


fairly sure the bottom two are just scum
i think chavela is like 0.1% less likely to be town than meuh but it's not meaningful

The groupsolve approach seems to be working.

Maybe it really just is

Pavowski

and

bugspray

? If that's the case, I'm actually feeling bad for them for not getting even a shred of a townread during the whole game. Maybe I missed something, but I don't remember either of them offering or even considering trusting one another as well. Perhaps it would have been wiser to do so since it wouldn't expose either, but it would help them distance themselves from one another as potential partners.

I can't help but notice that there's only one more successful pairing left for us to win. I don't mind staying until endgame in this case.

[Greeting]

I just woke up and we won! Yay, well done everyone!

Thank you for the game, I am down to play again this setup. I don't necessarily agree with the trust limit, I think one should be allowed to rescind and change their trust offer up to two times per Day. It's not a big deal for me though.