Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[GuiltyLion]

I guess FYPOV if you assume NQ scum, fua town, and you town, then checking me should be highest odds of getting a guilty, but I feel like a fua inno just leads to the next two lims being Shirou/GL anyways

if I'm inno'd instead and nQ scumflips, then even if we miselim you fypov (Shirou) at 5p, that leaves us with some combo of {Tejate/GL} as potential conftown and {fua/enchant/Ceph} in LIMLO. probably Tejate gets killed tonight and F3 is fua/enchant/ceph. which seems like close to ideal in terms of the rest of the possible scumteams it rules out. so maybe checking me on scumflip is a good idea

[GuiltyLion]

Shirou do you

actually

think Ceph is scum though

you're trying to get us to worry about losing to Ceph/nQ team on your townflip, but nothing in Ceph's play feels like it's all that likely that he's scum here, and a hypothetical nQ/Ceph team made an extremely weird/ballsy play on N1 of all times

[GuiltyLion]

Shirou flipping scum heavily indicates GL.

this is incorrect, but it doesn't really matter if Shirou flips scum. I agree with the rest of your posts in this chain

[GuiltyLion]

FMPOV flipping Shirou/nQ first still matters little to me - the only team I'd be afraid of on Shirou scumflip is fua/nQ but if Ceph checks me then they can't miseliminate me for the win and if Ceph checks fua it confirms fua as scum (in that world).

ceph/nQ could win if Shirou townflips, that is the only risk we are taking here going Shirou first, but I don't think that's the team, I think Shirou is scum.

[GuiltyLion]

the only team I'd be afraid of on Shirou

scumflip

townflip is fua/nQ

EBWOP

[GuiltyLion]

yah wait isn't that just a meaningless idea/point? if Shirou's worry is scum!nQ faked an inno on scum!Ceph, how does Ceph telling us he has an inno/guiilty on nQ resolve that worry or provide any new info either?

[GuiltyLion]

I'll follow you wherever you go fua as a token of my townie goodwill

[GuiltyLion]

I think what's making this game weird is it seems to me either

1) whoever is scum in the usual suspects is not trying for a viable endgame plan and is just playing how they think town in their spot would play it, or
2) scum is some wildly unsuspected team like Enchant/fua or something and just laughing at all of us lost townies trying to outmech each other.

but I don't want to paranoia about the unsuspected teams because if it really is just like nQ/Shirou then this is their only way to play it being boxed in without just outing themselves by pushing conspiracy theories, and because I just kinda fundamentally TR Enchant and Ceph (and even fua I suppose)

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, the thing that's making me feel most optimistic about nQ scum is that his play/solviness really has fallen off in terms of effort/energy as the game has gone on. and I didn't especially like his D1 all that much. so I am hoping/thinking he's scum until proven otherwise

I guess the nightmare scenario is nQ/Enchant team

[GuiltyLion]

Shirou imagine we're both town and we get nQ scumflip and fua inno and we spend f5 arguing that we should each be the lim ourselves lmao

I don't mind being miseliminated if it correctly POE solves but I hate being the game-losing miselimination, so uh... fun times ahead for us if Enchant is scum I guess lol

[GuiltyLion]

Honestly I don't scum read your play as much as by process of elimination I think you are the most likely scum. Other than the redtea insistence I guess, that's still creepy to me on hindsight.

eh, I still don't like how you were so insistent on not limming redtea for multiple days and then didn't even investigate me to clear me when you had the chance

[GuiltyLion]

I still gutfeel I would rather the investigate be fua or myself to cover more paranoia scenarios, but I guess I also just have to accept that if nQ flips town and Shirou is town then we've just lost. heck we've lost in that world even if I am cleared cause I'd probably cast a game losing vote on Shirou lol

[GuiltyLion]

is this all just some elaborate gambit to get yourself guilted so you don't have to play out a losing game

[GuiltyLion]

I hope implosion in particular is feeling deep uncertainty and anxiety about my alignment

[GuiltyLion]

Not gonna gambit, even if I made a save it wouldn't buy us another lim and people might think it's just scum me making a wifom play. Guaranteed Ceph cop result is best thing I can do

[GuiltyLion]

Fua is innocent

You really checked fua when from your POV it would be better to check the most suspicious person (aka me) on a NQ scum flip?

Like, if you really are that confident I'm scum, you could have just checked me and ended the game right there from your PoV. The fact you didn't is really weird.

I agree with this, I probably made things muddier than they needed to be yesterday when I was paranoia'ing about fua but I really mostly wanted fua checked if we flipped

town

yesterday, since the thing I was most worried about was hypothetical scum!fua flipping me to net them the win in 5p.

Given nQ scumflip I think checking either myself or Shirou would have made a lot more sense, so I'd like Ceph's explanation on if he was trying to hit scum or town with that check and why

[GuiltyLion]

I do wonder if there's a reason for Enchant dying rather than Tejate, or if it's just WIFOM.

this is also odd to me - Tejate was already conftown after nQ's scumflip, but Enchant was technically still uncleared. I would think for any of us as scum, a F3 without conftown would be slightly better than a F3 with a conftown in it, which is guaranteed now

The only thing I can think of is WIFOM as well, in the sense that maybe this gives scum flexibility to kill in fua/Tejate based on their reads and try to spin it with wine if need be. but yah idk if that's who I would have killed as scum

[GuiltyLion]

I also think you all were already kinda discussing this but for a small point in my own defense, if I were scum with nQ and Ceph is cop, our team would

definitely

rather have Shirou flipped over nQ yesterday. It's prob fair to be paranoid of me being a smooth operator and acting like I didn't care and just hoping Shirou went down instead without incriminating myself, but I do want to point out that yesterday was really bad for me if I were scum.

Similar reasoning applies to Shirou as well if he is scum, though he was a little more boxed in mechanically since I had my N5 doc role to take myself out of the limpool. but then I think back to D4 where Shirou posted a whole ton of mechanics analysis and a lot of it bad for scum!Shirou, it's effectively the plan we followed, and I wonder if he really can get this far and expect to win just by trying to play mechanically as if he were town

I need to reread some of D4 with this in mind where Shirou was talking about changing the plan and try to refresh myself what exactly he was suggesting

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, D5* when Shirou was suggesting changing the plan

[GuiltyLion]

idk overall I still think if I had to bet on it I'd pick Shirou over Ceph given a lot of Shirou's earlier play, but Ceph explaining the motivation behind his check would be helpful, and I should probably reread some critical parts of the game again.

I did check overnight when on D2 nQ outed his Ceph result and it was after everyone else had already posted, so it was safe to do if the team was Ceph/nQ and they didn't want to risk another cop CCing the result. nQ's D1 tunnel on Ceph was really weird and I remember calling it out at the time, regardless of Ceph's alignment I think that claim was to enable nQ to back off of his projected "scum!Ceph" trajectory

[GuiltyLion]

[

numberQ's

] vote has been parked on Ceph but I don't see him engaging with any of Ceph's later content nor working to convince people to also vote there, instead his vote is just kinda languishing.

I also think this is one of the most indicative things I called out in my giant reads post and I want more people to think about / engage with this as well

numberQ is not behaving like someone who still thinks Ceph is the best vote for today

this being what I'm referring to in 3963

[GuiltyLion]

I'm a firm believer that D1 and D2 with the sum totality of knowledge of the alignments of all the flipped players will probably ultimately be more helpful than D4/D5 when scum have more of an endgame plan, so I'll likely reread those days again at some point this weekend and try to decide which of Shirou/Ceph I think is scum

[GuiltyLion]

yeah 3970 is fair, that makes sense

[GuiltyLion]

GL makes more sense as scum by dayplay.

can you explain what you mean by this? I was gunning for redtea all game and was on nQ on D1 and only let him coast for the cop claim until yesterday. I didn't bite at Meg or Tejate miselims throughout the game, miselims that

you

were pushing mind you

I do believe good scum play is effectively dis-associating with your partners, so I can't intellectually honestly defend myself on the basis of "not looking like scum with flipped scum" (in fact I usually find myself arguing that if I look like scum with flipped scum then I'm not scum lol), but I'd like a refresher on what you think is scummy about my day play compared to Ceph

[GuiltyLion]

GL, what do you make of morph's suspicion of you given that they are posthumously conftown?

I think from a gamestate view it made sense, we had similar townreads and then both claimed docs, and we've historically clashed as town together before. I was more bothered by the fact that I didn't feel I had a good grip on their solve as for who my potential partner would be, nor did I ever really understand why they thought my reaction to fua's fake guilty was scummy - I highlighted this before but especially with hindsight now it should have been more apparent (from their point of view) that nQ knew it was an impossible and therefore fake result, whereas I initially thought it was a plausible guilty

[GuiltyLion]

To me, your stance on numbers looks like you're setting up to pivot on him after my flip.

this though, you're not wrong! because if you are town then I think that makes numberQ likely scum, and so if you flip town then yeah, I would pivot to him.

lol Tejate this kinda sums it up

[GuiltyLion]

I'm never voting fua either, so good luck with that

Ceph can you also reference when your fua read evolved from this and why?

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like GL, your play has been very consistent this game. But... I also feel like the scum partner is most likely someone who was set up to deepwolf. I don't feel like day 1 went down the way it did without being the case. And I know I said bussing in this setup is risky, but it's also possible that maybe you didn't realize. Or maybe you liked the challenge, who can say.

And I don't think Ceph could ever really be a deepwolf. He had a fake cop check him... when he was in no real danger of getting voted? Where is the logic in that from scumteam SvS check? Ceph didn't do much with his psuedo-conftown status. From my perspective, this game at least, he's not really in a position where that plan makes much sense.

I still kind of thing Shirou just flips scum but man... this wine is delicious. The iocane powder really brings out the flavor.

it's no worries man I vibe with this being difficult to find town in the three of us, because I am not even sure yet who I'd prefer today between the two of them

if Ceph had just claimed an inno on me I'd prob be mindlessly going for Shirou. I was kinda hoping he'd just guilty Shirou and the game would be over. The biggest thing making me pause here is the fua investigation, it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense from town!him and that's why I need him to explain it

I will say though, if Ceph/nQ is the team then I'd wager that D1 was meant entirely to distance between the two of them, and then once it became clear redtea was not going to be long for this world or capable of endgaming, I could imagine nQ claiming that result to give him a reason not to push/vote Ceph anymore, and to make Ceph

feel

town to everybody.

I do want to reread the game on D1 and D2 and gather my opinions, so I'd appreciate nobody hammer or end the day early here before I've come to a real decision and said my piece

[GuiltyLion]

actually though, for what it's worth in my last game, there was a scum (Ydrasse) who was "pseudoconf" town because she paired with the IC in a dance game (which is always bad/risky for scum because it makes them suspicious when that pair does not get killed), and then she similarly "didn't do much" with her pseudoconftown status. Datisi (my dance partner) said as much in this post and my reply was here.

I feel I could see a similar argument/pattern with Ceph in this game, if you're scum and everyone is assuming you are town, you don't really

need

to do a whole lot and it's better for you to let town implode when you can - you don't put yourself out there in any way and townies all get suspicious/accusatory/angry at each other because they're all trying to solve and mistakenly pointing fingers at each other.

[GuiltyLion]

uhh well I'm town but I did ask for no hammer / want a chance to do the deep reread

I do think Shirou both goading the hammer but also acknowledging that he'd be fine losing to me doesn't really feel scum-indicative, so fingers crossed I guess

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, I voted it yesterday too

[GuiltyLion]

wahoo!! gg everybody. Thanks for modding catboi, the game was smoothly run and replacements were quick, I had a ton of fun

Felt like one of those games where I was fighting with town a lot but glad it all seemed to resolve itself well in the end. I think this was a tough playlist to roll scum against and I'm also surprised the current scum winrate is what it is, feels like kind of a nightmare for scum mechanically with all the cop shots flying around. I'm definitely curious to see the reasoning of the AL kill on N2 in particular I would have thought taking out a cop would have been a bigger priority there.

thanks for playing everybody it was an enjoyable experience for me and I hope it was the same for you all as well! I apologize that I got a bit salty/aggro with Shirou, implo, and fua at points this game, there were a few times it felt like everyone was suspecting me and I let it rile me up a bit more than I should have. but glad it didn't ever compromise the game state and we were still able to block it out and win!!

[GuiltyLion]

btw Tejate you did a great job sticking through the suspicion/wagon on D2, I don't remember exactly when it was but there was a point where it suddenly clicked for me that you were town and you deserve props/credit for being able to towntell through a difficult D2 there

I find that my early reads are often more accurate than my later game reads, and I definitely think reads can be even better if you go through and reread the early game again once you know most players' alignments. I generally feel most people are better at scum as the game plan becomes more clear and slots have dirtied themselves throwing bad accusations around, it's really hard to establish a comfortable opening as scum and I also think townies are often able to more accurately detect real indicators/tells early because they aren't tunneled/stuck on incorrect reads yet.

[GuiltyLion]

no worries Shirou! I know how emotionally aggravating it can be especially if you feel your scumread is controlling the game. and I definitely don't think you ever did anything you need to apologize for, just defended scum a little too much for my liking ;P

[GuiltyLion]

I kinda like the suggestion in the dead/spec thread about running this setup where scum have one night RB abilities. I think the biggest problem with this setup is it's not too much of a drawback to claim early if the docs claim or if we have multiple cops on a single night, both of which happened at points this game. the mech speculation was interesting and a major part of the game at times, which made the game a fun/unique experience, but IMO it feels like it would make things a bit more even if there were a little more disincentive for town to claim, and claiming to be RB'd could help give scum an avenue where they aren't forced to clear or protect certain players.

[GuiltyLion]

hey catboi, can you unlock access to the scum PT?