Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Tanner]

baltaaaaaaaar

i guess i cannot enter with my usual "ego. + random vote" for this account, huh.

okay, here's the shit: i want to go to the keep. i won't lolvote because i like to pretend i believe in democracy and all that, but that is where i want to go. discuss. or don't, i dunno.

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only one town found is required to win the keep - my role pm is green. i don't expect that to be taken at face value, but i believe i can townspew enough for it to become apparent. after that, we only need one more.

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I don't really have strong feelings about where I go. Now that you brought this up, I'm half considering going where you go because I feel fairly confident I can actually town read you at this point (of course, haven't seen your scum game in awhile, so who knows)

hm. my hope was to bring two scummiest people to the keep with me. if we're right on them both being scum, scum will be forced to move one of them, which would greatly help us. of course, wifom is a thing, and this whole operation rests on the assumption that people will collectively townread me, so we'll see.

there's probably an optimal strategy for the order of the minigames played, but i haven't checked the past runs of this setup yet to see if they'd figured it out.

pedit: we'll see what can be done about that, aristeia!

[Tanner]

I am sad he does not want to go to the same place I want to go to.

what place would you prefer?

[Tanner]

if we're playing seriously - i'd want you to go to gate if you're town. i want you to be town, but it's obviously too early to tell.

[Tanner]

gosh you can't tell I am town already?

unfortunately, no, i am not

that

good at this game.

it doesn't make much sense for scum!me to want to go to keep with town!you to flirt with you and then vote you the winner dear

that is true. however, scum gets a swap tonight.

pedit: geez, thanks. >_>

[Tanner]

why did you do that?

[Tanner]

believing in democracy was a mistake... i'm gonna use that as motivation to do the work i'm procrastinating on. try not to throw too hard while i'm gone.

[Tanner]

i am back and i have not gotten any work done.

i agree that pairing early is not an optimal strategy. i'd like to get at least some feeling on the people. also agreed it's very unlikely ari/luke are s/s.

Scum would want to make sure they end up in different places, so "I'll go where ever is left" seems townie I think.

if he's scum, he's not the only scum. plenty of room for his two partners to jump to different locations and for him to play the "i'm fine wherever" card. i *want* to say that if toog is scum, that means it's more likely one of luke/ari is... but eh, feels too early.

But that would push Tanner out of his top pick.... So maybe not.

i said i want to go to the keep specifically so i can get voted - i'm unsure why you're showing this compassion considering that?

They are the only two people on this player list I have ever played with, so might help us read each other ?

Separating people by those who have played together isn't the worst idea.

Personally, I think the odds now of separating out all the scum is low. Seems like for that to happen all the town would have to move quickly before scum can vote. So my thinking is to try and optimize for the mini games

i like this. it's very unlikely all scum go to the same place, so playing for optimization is probably the better call. i

think

i'll be able to read baltar with >rand accuracy, but unfortunately that's it, i don't have much experience with the rest of the playerlist. barring aristeia, but i am unsure i can read her >rand.

(on that note, lukewarm, we played together in the mini normal that tris modded.)

I think it is pretty clear why I want to go to Keep with Tanner <3

it is clear, but why are you so willing to do it?

[Tanner]

mmm, now that i think about it, i feel traces of scumpings from 45 and 47.

[Tanner]

hm. i would say aristeia is still >rand town. scum!aristeia is basically forced to either flat-out lose one minigame, or use the night swap on me. and the second might not always be possible. it feels like limiting options for scum for... zero gain.

[Tanner]

no, sorry, i want everyone to at least post before i do that.

i think it's likely baltar is townie too. 11, 49, and 57 are obviously angling to go to the same location as me. he knows how paranoid i get of him and how i'm sometimes prone to think he's scum for most bullshit reasons, see that pick your poison game. so unless he's the same petty asshole i am, he's probably town.

obviously

also

not a lock considering the swap is a thing, but yeah.

[Tanner]

then they're scummy and probably never get voted for? iunno.

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i fear that keeping the fortress save is above both of us.

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i guess it depends on how you think about it. my thoughts were how i just scumread you as town, meaning i'm biased towards scumreading you, therefore i'm likely to do it again. if you're working under the assumption that because i just scumread you as town, i'm likely to go the opposite direction and townread you... that's fair and i guess possible, though that means my townlean goes straight into the trash. sad.

pedit: playing to the win condition is more important than going on a date, unfortunately.

[Tanner]

those are words that aren't yet actions, and i'm still not sure if i will be calling that bluff. besides, i like to get reads on as many people as possible. winning my minigame is good, but i want to help elsewhere too.

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you know i don't like rushing decisions.

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@lukewarm, i'm trying to brute-force my own vote through. more specifically, my idea was me + two scummiest people. the fact that you jumped into the keep yourself meant that either you're volunteering yourself to be one of the scummy people (unlikely) or that you have no interest in me making that plan a reality. if the latter is the case, that means i have no reason to volunteer to the keep anymore because my strategy is gone. so the "tanner won't be able to go to the keep then" is completely misplaced; i

already

don't want to go to the keep. and the fact you didn't connect that feels kiiiind of like scum more worried about keeping up appearances than a townie critically thinking about what i'm saying.

@implosion, the main point about my strategy was the fact that it would give us an easy win in one game, and allow us some breathing room to win another one more easily. i never intended to treat the swap as an investigation tool. especially not in a 3v6 game where there are a lot of people i don't have good ways of reading, i'm flat out assuming that any poe or collective readslist we come up with on day one won't be very good.

[Tanner]

implo's openness about the setup *feels* townie. have any of the players here also played in that run? if not, then i think there's no reason for implo to do this.

[Tanner]

That seems like a strategy that would work for any location, not keep-specific?

[snip]

She could use the night swap on her to appear towny in whatever minigame she's swapped into. That seems like a reasonable play as scum? And also could just be hoping Tanner doesn't actually end up in Keep anyhow.

sure, the "if two scum are here, they have to swap one of them" could work on any location. but my main point, again, is that keep is the only minigame where we need to find only one town to win. even if we're wrong on one of those scummy-looking people being scum, we don't have to spend energy sorting them out.

not if scum is forced to use their swap between the other two minigames.

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Okay I see the added value of that strategy if it's on the Keep. Though it might be moot as Lukewarm and Ari have limited our options to apply it unless we strongly scumread either or both of them.

well, yes, which is why i proposed that i go to the keep immediately when the game started. and then someone lolvoted keep.

I see your suggested plan, but I did not realize that you wanting to go to the keep was contingent on us all agreeing to go with it. I guess since the keep is my top choice, I kinda assumed you might still have it as your top choice sans-plan

i mean, i cannot force people to go to the locations i want them in, so yes, it would depend on the rest of the game agreeing with the plan. the keep is still my favourite choice due to it being the easiest and me being bad at mafia, but eh.

I think there's almost no strategies that strictly increase town's EV from a random-choices perspective. I think there's mostly just strategies that are better or worse at leveraging different kinds of correct reads.

I want to call VP and Tanner town atm.

yeah, i know. i'm thinking it would be a morale-booster for town (and i believe morale is extremely important in mafia) and it would give info for solving the more difficult minigames.

why those two names?

[Tanner]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

so last game, baltar didn't remember me being scum in a game that happened some... 9? months ago, but remembered playing with imaginality in a game back in

2009

? damn.

[Tanner]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

so last game, baltar didn't remember me being scum in a game that happened some... 9? months ago, but remembered playing with imaginality in a game back in

2009

? damn.

and that game had ~15 pages over more than two weeks. holy shit, old ms sounds like a different time.

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only after hitting submit i realized just how utterly stupid that sentence sounds because *of course* it was a different time. should go to bed soon.

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i'm starting to wonder why did i even /in into this game, considering i utterly hate lylos as town and have never won one when i was the deciding vote. i think i might really be a masochist.

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any scumteam with more than two collective braincells will conftown me if i end up at the gate.

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(⁄ ⁄•⁄ω⁄•⁄ ⁄)

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@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

assuming this is asking as town - solely depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there. maybe saying it out loud is the mistake here, but /shrug.

Actually maybe 3 scummiest at the gate?

i would support this.

also, i'm not sure if i see the point in discussing which minigames we want to resolve first right now, since that feels pretty dependent on how our reads shake out and the night swap.

- her Tanner buddying could fit as both S/T and S/S

i was going to complain about you calling my 59 superficial, but then i realized just why it might seem like it to someone not familiar with ari, and why i'm maybe being a bit hasty in that read, so, fine. my questions then are (1) why are you townleaning baltar? the points you wrote about him seem overwhelmingly negative, (2) what's the logic behind ari/tanner being s/s?

[Tanner]

like, i was reading along, and i started thinking how baltar's posting mostly mech discussion and not many reads, which struck me as somewhat +scum (citation needed maybe, i'll check at some point). then i came to your post, and i thought how it's nice we're mindmelding, and then boom, you're actually townreading him because ???.

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that post was me questioning implo's read on me. part of me wants to say that means the team is imaginality/implosion/baltar because why else would he mix up you two, but realistically i know it's probably just a mistake.

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if i were to be a tad more serious, i'd say the cognitive dissonance between listing majorly negative things for baltar and then ending up with a townread on him anyway is somewhat likely to be s/s. i usually dislike doing preflip this early in the game, but the setup kind of supports it, and not sure what else i got right now.

[Tanner]

hm. i just realized none of those three are assigned yet. we could shove them into the same location.

[Tanner]

Me, a player who is bad at mech, trying to talk to people to better understand the approach to a mech heavy setup in the first 24 hours of the thread is +scum?

...no, my problem was that is seemed like you were all-mech no-reads. some-mech some-reads is fine.

Additionally, do you think I am not forming reads from these conversations? You literally just saw me as town in a game where it took me forever to form solid reads, and only after a painful cycling through of some bad reads.

yes, that's the impression i got, the one thing i found to be you explicitly expressing a read on someone was saying implo was townie. the only thing about year reads that i actually remember was that you formed a townlean on me that i thought was way too easy and way too early.

hm. i just realized none of those three are assigned yet. we could shove them into the same location.

Looks like a potential town bloc to me. So sure. Where would you put us?

(Also, only two people are assigned, so making a point like that group is avoiding assignment sounds forced)

i want to say gate, so that i don't end up there. other than that, i don't really have any thoughts which is better.

and. uh. where the hell did you get the idea that

that

is the point i was trying to make? like, i think it's pretty clear my thought process was "hey, here's a potential reason on why these three people could be our scumteam" (201) to "oh shit, they're all unassigned, we can test this theory out!" (204) i was saying absolutely nothing about it being "scummy" or that you're "avoiding assignment" - like, i am the first person here who's stalling on my own assignment, why would i ever be making that point?

Tanner, what's your read on Ari?

more likely town than not. i realized why my read shouldn't be as simple as "ari is doing a thing that's a potential loss with no gain as scum", since she can always just, walk back. but it still feels sincere in a sense, she's not actually bad at reading me when she's town, so i can definitely see town!motivation in what she's doing - getting us to a same location *and* reading my reactions in the process.

[Tanner]

the only thing about

your

reads

from that game

that i actually remember was that you formed a townlean on me that i thought was way too easy and way too early.

how did i type "your" as "year".

[Tanner]

where the hell did you get the idea that that is the point i was trying to make?

It was a very clear subtext of what you said. Seemed like you're trying to shade

shade someone for not assigning to a location. when the game is 24 hours old. when i have been adamant in stalling my own assignment. when i have expressed dislike jumping at assignments immediately. when 3 seconds ago i mentioned an unrelated reason for suspecting a team.

my first thought here is that you're

heavily

stretching to accuse me of doing scummy shit. but maybe i'm biased because i know what i meant to say. so, does anyone else read 204 as me shading those three people for not assigning yet?

[Tanner]

I find the interactions between you two performative. I am not certain who is what yet unfortunately

arisetia likes me (for whatever reason), she does this... every game we play in. what else do you find performative?

[Tanner]

so i can definitely see town!motivation in what she's doing - getting us to a same location *and* reading my reactions in the process.

to add to this, keep is literally the worst location for her and me to go to together if she's scum. because there is a real chance that, if she refuses to vote for me on the keep, i start scumreading her because of it, and vote the third person. so again, either she's forced to use the swap on one of us, or she insta-loses the keep for scum.

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You said you "just realized" we weren't assigned...as if that were some kind of surprising insight to you. You either chose your words poorly, or you were choosing words to make it seem like some kind of 'ah ha' that in reality makes no sense.

i mean, it's not surprising, it's just... the moment i put two and two together. "i have a teamread on three people" > "this setup encourages teamreads" > "yeah, because of the assignments to locations" > "wait, scum loses if all 3 are at the same spot, i have a teamread, and none of them have been assigned yet" > "oh, we can test the theory out!". like, if you had asked me whether any of the three of you are assigned yet, OF COURSE i'd know none of you are. but it took me a moment to realize how that can be used.

[Tanner]

it's not the moment i "just realized" the three of you aren't assigned, it's the moment i realized i can use that to try to force a loss in you indeed are the scumteam. but i didn't type it all out because i figured it's gonna be obvious to everyone that i didn't mean to say that i just figured out what the assignments are.

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Like, maybe this is how Ari is with you all the time...in which case that's meta I don't know.

But if I was in your position, I'd find those kind of interactions with me scummy and pocketing efforts.

pretty much, yeah. the thing is, i don't see

how

that pocket benefits her. both of us end up at the keep, she votes me, i self-hammer... my townread on her in that scenario is completely irrelevant. it could potentially be a pocket for after she swaps herself or me, but in that case i'd reevaluate anyway.

[Tanner]

Do you think implosion/vp/imaginality is a legitimate solve?

i wouldn't bet my life on it. but it's the only thing so far that actually gave me a feeling of "hey, maybe these three people are scum together", so i don't see the harm in chasing after it. especially as i think none of you expressed any preference in which game you play.

it's the moment i realized i can use that to try to force a loss in you indeed are the scumteam.

You just realized a major mechanic in the setup that you've already commented is unlikely to actually happen

it took me a moment to connect "scum lose if all three are in the same place" and "i have three people that i think are scum" into "we can force them into the same location". what's your point?

[Tanner]

I’m not like necessarily opposed to Tanner‘a suggestion but am I right that it’s based off of solely 201? I can’t really tell whether Tanner actually thinks this is a good idea that we should do or if it’s just a passing thought he had or somewhere in between.

you are right. my thoughts are, if we don't have any better ideas for how to assign ourselves, we might as well test out a tinfoil theory i had. granted, that would leave me, number, darby, and toog unassigned, and i don't have a positive individual read on none of those people. so that's potentially a fucky minigame. but then again, everyone has to be assigned somewhere in the end... i dunno.

pedit: i don't actually know the different likelihoods. but imaginality's baltar read already struck me as a potential s/s, so this is just an extension of that.

[Tanner]

what "questionable" comment, the one where i apparently shaded people for doing the exact same thing i am doing?

why does it seem like you think i am so insanely confident in that solve? like. it was one (1) post that made me think that the three of you might be buddies. none of you have any preference between minigames, and nobody has any ideas on how to assign the rest of us. we can test my theory - if i'm right, town wins. if i'm wrong, nothing is lost. i don't have to be insanely confident in that being the correct solve to realize there is no harm in test it?

[Tanner]

(1) we always get to test only 3 teams like that. if someone has other team reads, they are free to talk about them and we can discuss which ones we want to test. i have no intentions of being a dictator here. (2) i guess i could be? if that were the case though, i think it's more likely i'd tell my buddies to make up some bullshit on why they want to go to location x or y.

pedit: lol @ that yes. and like, /shrug. i already said myself that i think implo is individually towny, and that a lot of the rest of the game isn't towny. but i am also aware that individual reads are bad, especially this early in the game. so i'm fine trying to go for a yolo-shot based on tinfoil associate reads rather than going for "3 people who are lowest individually" solve.

[Tanner]

It's not about the confidence level. It just seems like a terrible solve. I know I'm town, so I know you're wrong there. Implosion looks fairly town in approach based upon the scum PT in the other game. So that's at least 2/3 that look like bad solves to me. What can I say, I have higher expectations from you.

the "higher expectations" part stings, but other than that - do you think my "solve" means i find the three of you the scummiest individually? because it doesn't. the moment the game doesn't end after the three of you are assigned to the same location is the moment this theory goes directly into the trash.

[Tanner]

that post was me questioning implo's read on me. part of me wants to say that means the team is imaginality/implosion/baltar because why else would he mix up you two, but realistically i know it's probably just a mistake.

Probably best you stick with the 'mistake' explanation not only because it's correct but also because what I

actually

mixed up was typing you instead of implosion:

.

I will say, I give small +town points to implosion for spouting off his optimal strategy. He talks about it in the scum PT for that old game. Seems like it wouldn't need to be mentioned before I asked for a link if he were scum.

So your tinfoil theory would have me, you and implosion as scum, which I'm guessing you disagree with?

uhm. you posted the original thing in the section of your readslist that was describing your townread of me. you linked post 103, which is me responding to implo and asking why he's townreading me and vp.

so you're telling me you mixed up typing me instead of implosion, you mixed up which section you're putting it in, you ALSO mixed up the number of the post, but everything came out in such a way that it looks like you mixed up implo and vp?

[Tanner]

Filtering back through to find what made you think this, in 103 Implosion expressed a town read on VP and Tanner. Then imaginality said that it was a VP read on Tanner. So VP was tangentially involved with that discussion?

I don't think I buy into this team solve

yeah, imaginality mixed up implo and vp. i'm already suspicious of imaginality for his very weird read on vp. so i think scum is more likely to mix up two people if they're of same alignment. and the imaginality's read of vp slightly smells like s/s, so.... here we are.

[Tanner]

He's most out there with reads. Those reads are probably overstated even, which seems like a riskier move than scum would need to take at like 10 pages.

hm. in my experience, such early readslists are more often called scummy because they're ~performative~. so it feels a bit ??? to see that actually being townread? anything in them strike you as hard to fake?

[Tanner]

but Toog I like Toog

can you spell this out for me?

also, i'm probably getting tunnelled, but i think i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location. these interactions bug me.

[Tanner]

Seems fair to call out imaginality's explanation as convoluted (I can barely follow it), but to think the mixup would be scum scum seems to not make sense to me.

i mean, all i'm doing is making an assumption that, if scum were to mix up two people, those two people are more likely to be of same alignment. and i don't like the interactions between you two. so. 2+2. is 5 probably because i'm bad at this game but you get the idea.

i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location.

That seems fine by me. I don't trust you to call an entire location, but if you want to test your theory in a 2/3, I don't think there is a lot of harm in that.

i like how you think that scum!me would care enough to powerwolf and push through certain locations because...? i'm that afraid that my buddies and i will get locked in the same one? at the time where most of the game is going "uh idk i don't care where i go hehe" and they can do the things themselves? i'm taking it as a compliment.

[Tanner]

i like how you think that scum!me would care enough to powerwolf and push through certain locations because...?

Oh I absolutely think you'd powerwolf enough to try to get 1-1-1. You're good enough to do that in a natural way.

i mean, if the situation called for it. but, like... everyone is just twiddling their thumbs with regards to where they go... my scumbuddies would surely have enough brain to be able to fake

something

on why they want to go somewhere.

[Tanner]

To clarify:
- when I was writing notes for my reads on you I noted 'VP townreads Tanner' instead of 'VP townreads implo'
- when I wrote my notes on you I wrote 'Tanner questions townread on him' and grabbed the URL
- when I wrote up the section on you I combined these into the line about you questioning VP's townread on you

okay,

sure

. i don't feel like forcing implo with you two, he's being townie anyway.

gotta say, if this is a convoluted plot to get me to back off from my correct teamread of implo/imaginality/baltar, i want a moment of brilliance nom post game.

[Tanner]

actually, i'm not even sure if i find baltar scummy anymore in the grand scheme of things. except for the interactions with imaginality. that makes me want to start drinking again.

this was the alt with which i spent like half of one game drunk, right? i should bring that back

still the best reads i ever had

[Tanner]

oooh, spicy. any reasons for those? who goes to which one?

[Tanner]

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

[Tanner]

If you think the low info slots will be hardest to sort I'd argue we should chuck them at the wall where we have lowest odds of winning anyhow?
I do like the idea of sending implosion to the Keep as no one's voiced any suspicion of him.

it's the difference in strategy, whether we want to absolutely tank our odds of winning one minigame but somewhat increase them in another, or to keep them ~equal. i don't think one is mathematically better than the other.

I'm also fine so far with putting darby and number together, the only thing is i have this selfish desire of not being the third one there, because i have

absolutely nothing

on their alignments so far. like, i have some ideas on imaginality and baltar. (and everyone else in the game.) those two? head empty

yes, i know i'm likely not the only person who has no read on them.

on the other hand I will be disappointed and somewhat sad

wow, this emotional manipulation is unreal.

285 got me thinking. if ari and luke are town/town, then scum would surely be trying to angle themselves to get into the keep. but i think what i mentioned earlier was right, nobody actually showed much care about where they get assigned. working backwards, that would mean ari/luke are t/s? it's probably wrong to be making that many assumptions.

luke, do you think i should be townreading you by now?

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

Wait. I thought you wanted to link up VP and imagin because you thought they were partners?

yes? me going to a location with them wouldn't magically break them up, so what's the issue?

I just want to be pocketed by someone with good taste in music :<

my taste in music is garbage, is our whole relationship built on lies?

For some reason, the idea of sharing music with other people like properly gives me a panic attack, so... :/

finally someone who understands!! i feel like people always look at me like i'm insane when i say i don't like the idea of sharing what music i listen to with other people.

[Tanner]

I highly doubt both Luke and Ari are scum both going Keep this early. Either T/T or T/S. Two scum going to the same location right away doesn't make any sense to me.

I mean there’s always the WIFOM aspect of it.

also number's analysis of this post seems like :goodposting:, and i do think it's somewhat +likely darby is scum now.

though i will notice that number and aristeia have the same poe's, except they're both in one another's. no idea what it means yet, maybe nothing, but i thought it was interesting.

[Tanner]

thinking about number's plan with regards to the gate, i think it can coexist with my idea of putting imaginality and baltar together, we'd just need another townreads. except not because i don't know how many people, if anyone, actually agree with me on imaginality. and i'm not sure i got a second strong unassigned townread. implo is a possibility, i guess. i'm not sure why toog is being townread, other than the reason luke has, which feels *fine* but it's obviously more uncertain from my pov.

[Tanner]

Out of curiosity: if VP Baltar and I are in the same location, but you're not, who else would you want in that location?

[snip]

This is also a reason why we might want to resolve Keep first if it still has Luke and Ari in it - if they turn out to be town/town then there's highly likely scum amongst the conspicuous "I don't care where I end up"-ers.

i think darby. he's currently my second best bet for being scum. other than that, not sure i got any other ideas. everyone else feels equally meh.

hm. if they do turn out to be t/t, then i'm not sure what that means for the game as a whole. i guess i'd just be mostly puzzled on why nobody volunteered to go there until we kind of assigned implosion there? maybe that it's +likely scum is in the people who didn't post much from when those two jumped in to when [whoever it was] said they'd like implosion in the keep?

pedit: okay, that's actually funny. i'm trying to not get biased.

[Tanner]

okay, i don't hate that plan.

on a completely unrelated note, how can i convince you i'm town, luke?

[Tanner]

dunno about you, mostly because i don't have experience with you, but yeah, i wouldn't mind having an ic!baltar, even though i'm starting to think it might be a waste... not sure where you're getting the idea that i'm a good ic shot for town, lol. and /shrug. i'm town, but i don't have any arguments for why i couldn't be scum doing that, so sure.

[Tanner]

i went hiking up a hill, and at 4:40 i took a picture of the lavender sky for aristeia, but there were no clouds there today.

ari, do you think i'm unfairly tunnelled on imaginality right now?

[Tanner]

re 322: keep is still my favourite minigame, as it is the easiest to win, sure. but i think there's more value in me being assigned to where it would benefit town the most rather than me being assigned to the game i want to play the most. and yes, i am fully aware my plan for keep would've won it for my alignment. i have a feeling you're implying that somehow makes me scummy, which, uh.

and it's funny how you don't mention at all how i was uninterested in the keep when ari kept repeating she wanted to vote me there. but whatever fits the narrative, yeah? and i thought it was pretty obvious how my "reinterest" in the keep was not serious, so you missing that and taking it seriously is also shady. but if others also tell me they thought it was serious, i'll concede it was a joke that didn't land and not hold it against you.

[Tanner]

"just looking to play some yelo" is a cursed sentence.

but also, if everyone were to play that way, that would make this day completely pointless... it's like trying to escape wifom by having zero information out. why.

[Tanner]

uh... the thing that peaked my interests was that you didn't go to "being assigned to where it would benefit town" you went to "i already don't want to go to the keep." And that is what surprised me. Not wanting to go to the Keep without your plan. And, I kinda try to read slots in a "what I would do/think if I were scum" and if I were scum, I would not want to go to the keep because I would not want to be in the hardest game to win, unless I had a plan, so heebie-jeebies.

And, why the hell would I have mentioned it before, if I am actively watching to see if you keep moving in the direction that I think you might be? That totally defeats the purpose

my preferred plan was ruined. what gives you the idea that i should keep jumping at going to the keep when the main reason that i wanted to go there is now unachievable?

like, if we end up deciding that my place would best be served at the keep, i will go there. but i no longer have a preference for executing my plan because it's no longer possible to execute.

you should've mentioned it because it defeats your whole point of "tanner is opportunistically trying to join the keep"? the latter part of your post makes it seems like you were trying to honestly evaluate my slot, but the fact that you failed to mention something so important is not giving any vibes of honesty at all.

[Tanner]

what?

dude, you quite literally told me the metric you're tracking me on. you quite literally pointed out the exact thing that you didn't like about me:

So, you being uninterested in the keep when I was saying that I could vote for Ari, and still uninterested with Ari said that they could vote for me - but suddenly reinterested if we both commit to voting the third slot is giving me the heebie-jeebies

and i'm saying that the above is dishonest nonsense because it completely fails to account for the fact that i have been told by aristeia to assign myself at the keep

multiple times

because she wants to vote me, and i kept refusing.

[Tanner]

why would you do that? i don't know. but you did that. and you weren't even correct in doing that. so...?

[Tanner]

uh... the thing that peaked my interests was that you didn't go to "being assigned to where it would benefit town" you went to "i already don't want to go to the keep." And that is what surprised me.

okay, sure. when y'all ruined my plan for the keep, i said that i don't want to go there anymore, because i had no reason to prefer keep over other places (other than for the fact keep is the easiest, but hey i'm not that selfish). then i spent a decent amount of time trying to figure out the best assignment from the slots left, and then i said that i'll go wherever it's the most pro-town place for me to go. what part of that is so surprising?

[Tanner]

(1) get townread
(2) go to keep with two biggest scumreads
(3) bonus: one of them gets swapped with someone
(4) they vote me, i self hammer, keep is won and we have info from there
(5) ???
(6) profit

[Tanner]

i wanted to keep the fortress safe for all of us :<

[Tanner]

also wouldnt you get switched out for another scumread and then we would be kinda screwed if we did your plan?

not if we correctly hit on the other two scumreads that would go with me. even if i did get swapped in that scenario, it would *probably* still be safe to vote the person i got swapped with. and if they flipped red, that would mean that the two collectively scummiest people were town, which uh. would at least tell us that our reads are fucked?

[Tanner]

right. i did not talk about wanting to go to the keep anymore because the consensus has been that we should throw the overall towniest person there, and that that person is implosion.

your "here's what i would do as scum and here's how tanner is doing it" is great, but it misses one key detail. i am not you. i would almost never open the game as scum with "hurr durr i is town let me go to keep". you know why? because there's multiple people here that have decent knowledge of my meta, and they could very likely tell if i was actually attempting a powertown game or if i was faking it. so unless the scumteam was *exactly* vp/ari/tanner, that plan won't work. besides, your "i'd try to have a plan to win the keep, but if that didn't work, i'd try to go to the wall because that's easiest", okay, good for you. i'm no don corleone, but i think i'm decent as scum, and i definitely wouldn't immediately run to the wall. here's where i would write "i'd be fine letting a less-experienced scumbuddy take the wall", but i'm also not sure how many people here actually are less experienced at scum than me, but i digress.

[Tanner]

This is simple. Tanner, imaginality and I go to the gate.

that's gonna be a clownfest, count me in. i'll vote gate approximately 24 hours from now if nobody has any objections to the above.

(yes, i know i said i don't want gate and now i'm agreeing to go to the gate, don't @ me)

[Tanner]

Lukewarm and Tanner are both being very persuasive right now imo. Does anyone else have a take on all this? Because I think there's 1 scum between them, but I keep going back and forth on who it is.

interesting that you come to that conclusion? if we're both being persuasive, wouldn't that mean that both our points are good, and that therefore it's possible we're t/t?

[Tanner]

I don't see why you would go to gate if you think you can powertown yourself into being UTR :/

why would i not? being able to make myself utr later on is going to come in handy no matter what location i go to. i originally brought it up alongside keep specifically because my plan was to take two scummy people with me.

[Tanner]

i'm not utr yet, at least by the looks of it. and if they don't want to gamble on whether i'll be able to do that, then they're free to ic me.

i know it's not ideal. but i vaguely remember baltar saying some reasons why the three of us should go to the gate rather than the wall, and me thinking that they were decent, so i'm sheeping past!me.

[Tanner]

I don't get why you will obvtown at Keep but not Obvtown at gate if you r going to obvtown...?

i mean, the plan was for me to obvtown at keep, and bring two scumreads with me. the first problem is that that plan is gone. the second problem is that i am not actually able to obvtown at will, as much as i want to be able to. like, i entered the game hoping it's gonna be the best case scenario where i'm gonna be townread and it's gonna be an easy victory at keep and etc. but by the looks of it, it's not one of those games. so i might as well accept the plan of going to gate.

like, this feels like a confusing mess of a question that's also dependent on me being able to obvtown anytime i want, which, uh, is not quite the case.

[Tanner]

oh wait, baltar said originally said we should go at wall, not gate. and imaginality talked about going to the gate. meh, i don't dislike it. i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can, but considering this is one of those games where pretty much everyone suspects me to some degree, me being at the gate is not actually a very clear-cut decision for scum. alright.

[Tanner]

like, this feels like a confusing mess of a question that's also dependent on me being able to obvtown anytime i want, which, uh, is not quite the case.

If you are locked into a 1v1 fight at the Keep you wouldn't be able to obvtown yourself?

how do you even get locked into a 1v1 at keep? anyway, i don't know. i'm guessing i would but i really can't promise anything.

and yeah, sorry about that. didn't sleep a lot last night, so my brain is even smoother than usual.

[Tanner]

yeah.

[Tanner]

i'm guessing i would but i really can't promise anything.

[Tanner]

you lied to me when you were scum, i wouldn't feel guilty about returning the favour. it's all part of the game after all.

[Tanner]

you were trying to make me think that you were town when you were not, i think that counts as lying. >_>

pedit: hmm, interesting, considering you didn't have a problem interacting with me that game, as far as i remember.

[Tanner]

i remember you posting some gifs at me that game, so i'm kinda registering it as interaction.

is it bad that i do not believe you when you say you wouldn't want to lie to me if you rolled red this game? not saying it makes you scum necessarily, but i don't buy it.

[Tanner]

i'm not saying posting gifs lying, i'm saying it's interacting. and i still don't really buy you would feel bad about lying to me in a context of a mafia game. it's a game. that's what we're here for.

[Tanner]

well, i assume there's no point in waiting for a darby comeback/replacement since the assignments have been decided, and it's anti-town to actually be giving reads out at this point, so...

VOTE: gate

see ya on the other side.

[Tanner]

well then. gonna need to get some drinks for this game after all.

i do have some Thoughts(tm), but i think it's a good idea to let the rest of you speak first.

[Tanner]

well then. gonna need to get some drinks for this game after all.

i do have some Thoughts(tm), but i think it's a good idea to let the rest of you speak first.

Oh do you now!

Imma be VLA until tomorrow evening for me, just a heads up to everyone

you wanna fuckin call me scum for it huh???

[Tanner]

Maybe I just conf biased myself, but looking back over his iso, I'm pretty sure he is scum.

good case, i'm convinced

[Tanner]

right, i can't be just shitposting here, fine.

i think the first step here is having everyone give their introduction thoughts. at least on their own game, preferably on the others too. then it will be easier to decide the order, when we figure out what flips give info for where. i'll poke around that, but i think i first wanna see what you all come up with. i'll reread the game in the meantime, it's been a while.

i am kind of annoyed that there was talk about meta and "how good at yelo are you", because if i had been ic'ed without that conversation, it would give more info than now. but it is what it is. maybe it's my fault for actually answering.

[Tanner]

i'm just gonna ramble about objective mechanics a bit, so that i can get corrected if i'm wrong.

so there is exactly one scum in vp baltar/imaginality. rip my tinfoil.

original keep was luke/ari/implo, original wall was toog/number/pav. implo and pav were swapped.

if there was 1 scum in each - implo and pav are the same alignment.
if there was 2 scum in either - then they're opposite alignments.

i don't think this really gets us anywhere... there may be merit in resolving keep and wall first in order to see whether there was 1 scum in each location at the end of d1, or if scum was forced to correct the groups. i say "may" because i still need to reread d1 and see if that would actually give any information about vp and imaginality. if it wouldn't, then there's no point.

[Tanner]

Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.

can i get a rundown of your experience with luke, please?

[Tanner]

Just thinking abut the game, and I realized that Baltar and imaginality's are in a better position then anyone else to make reads across the games. Who ever is the town in that pair basically have a scum flip to work with. They can actually make associative reads and partner hunt against the other person.

oh, good shit. yeah, the two of them should be doing that.

[Tanner]

you mixed up the wall and the gate or am i misreading?

[Tanner]

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.

unless this is a. elaborate troll by prism, yes, there is a scum at the gate. took you until now?

[Tanner]

an elaborate troll*

imagine actually proofreading before hitting submit

[Tanner]

i mean, the whole point of the setup is that there's one scum in each of the three locations. and you're going "wait, there's scum at the gate?"

what was your thought process wrt our location when you saw that i was ic'ed?

[Tanner]

I thought scum can place wherever they want as long as it's not all three at one location?

yes, on day one. because they get a night swap. with which they can correct the number of scum in locations.

[Tanner]

i mean like. if you thought a location can be without scum, what did you think the three of us were even gonna do lol

[Tanner]

i was gonna say "surely scum!him doesn't fake *this*, right?"

but i still remember my first game with him, where scum!him deadass went "guys, does scum have daytalk?" and like, yes he does.

[Tanner]

the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/

it is almost 2am and i like, actually laughed out loud oops

of course you may, i was afraid you'd never ask. i do have to crash now, but we can talk tomorrow, i'm looking forward to it. :>

[Tanner]

- Gate: Well my read is obviously VP is scum. I am happy to go dig through his iso but from your POV I might be scum trying to bias your reads so I'll stick to fairly objective points. And obviously happy to answer any questions/requests.

I'm a bit surprised this game didn't get changed cos I think the choice of you as IC points to VP, so that makes me see the Darby - implosion swap as either a necessary S/T one, or as scum thinking it is a more useful swap than disrupting the Gate.

don't worry, you're not rushing my vote. i am... notorious for dragging out the yelo decisions until the last second, so.

i would like to know what "objective" points you believe you have against baltar. how does me being ic'ed point to him being scum? and why were you thinking our game was going to get changed?

[Tanner]

oh yeah, so i don't forget, question for baltar: could you compare your townread of implosion in this game to your townread of bingle in the pick your poison game? and i'd like everyone else to ignore this.

[Tanner]

thank you for the music last night ari, it was lovely, and i did sleep really well.

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

could you tell me the difference between these two?

[Tanner]

Re. the IC choice: for what it's worth (precisely nothing since I'd say the same as scum), if I were scum I'd prefer to 1v1 Tanner and try to get VP to side with me.

really? scum!you isn't the type to say "yeah, i totally would have picked you as the ic, the fuck you gonna do, vote me?"

still, why do you think baltar is more likely to want to 1v1 you than he is to 1v1 me?

[Tanner]

Because I feel the need to defend my honor since the implication of this question is I'm a big dummy who aligns with scum D1

no, not at all. if you're a dummy, i am too, i died townreading bingle that game.

my question is moreso that i'm seeing certain other parallels between you townreading bingle that game and you townreading implosion this game. mainly, townreading them *for* doing mechanical analysis (and i guess sounding kinda genuine while they're doing it). and i find it kind of strange that you would townread implo for that right after you got burned townreading bingle for it.

I suspect scum wouldn't be offering what they thought was legitimate good advice to town early on in the game.

specifically this part. this is exactly what bingle does when he's scum. i'm not sure if it was touched on in that game that bingle's analysis is always pro-town regardless of his alignment, but in hindsight it is *weird* that this behaviour earned a townread for implo.

[Tanner]

baltar, if you're scum who needs to ic one of me/imaginality and 1v1 the other one, who do you pick for what and why?

[Tanner]

Also, Baltar, you do realize that imaginality is only confirmed

town

from your POV, and not from tanner's, right?

luke and vp confirmed scum ggwp

[Tanner]

@Tanner: you not wanting to go with numberQ and DArby makes me slightly suspicious that VP and I are both town and you're scum trying to get in with us so there's one scum among us. You saying DArby should be with VP and me if you're not doesn't do much to dissuade me from that concern.

That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed.
For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you.

imaginality, you *really* wanted me at the gate, huh.

[Tanner]

i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can

tanner you dumb fuck lol

[Tanner]

oooh, spicy. any reasons for those? who goes to which one?

Given the keep is set, I'd like to put my strongest town read there.

I'm also abiding by your request because that doesn't bother me, and if you're town maybe it will help you.

And then it is just separating the low content slots of number and Darby. Obv if I put you with my group, it is kind of a fun twist on your request, but may not be good trying to sort two low info slots in the same game. (Though as I'm typing this, I'm thinking 'sorting two in one game means maybe you'll only lose one game!')

As far as who goes to what game, I don't have strong feelings, but maybe Gate, keep, tower in that order?

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

Yeah, wall sorry.

baltar, do you remember why you wanted me/you/imaginality at the wall originally?

[Tanner]

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

how does the fact that luke self-assigned at the keep immediately play into this?

[Tanner]

something feels incorrect about that argument, but i'm not sure how to express it. like, if we assume you/luke are town, and you two jumped at the keep early. from there on we decided to assign the last person at the keep collectively. wouldn't it make more sense for scum!imaginality (who's allegedly a weaker scum player, or at least less confrontational) to go to the gate rather than wall?

actually, depends on how scum are attempting to balance the games, huh.

[Tanner]

ari, if you were scum, would you tell your buddies to make me the ic?

[Tanner]

there are still some things i want to see happen on their own first before i give my full thoughts. why do you think imaginality is the scum between him and baltar?

[Tanner]

i'll just chime in to say that, pav, i would like to hear your opinion on the other two games, not only on your own, when you've read up.

[Tanner]

of course, don't let me distract you, keep the current convo going, just like. eventually, don't forget to weigh in on the rest. kthx

[Tanner]

ari, you consistently manage to genuinely put a smile on my face, i'm gonna be heartbroken if you're scum here.

[Tanner]

good morning to everyone but scum, what am i walking into this time?

[Tanner]

I think for the third person in Keep we should make it someone Ari and Luke agree to vote for in advance. If we can lock them in to that plan it pretty much forces scum to swap the third person if they're town. Hence my questions to them to see who they can both agree on as town.

This hasn't happened, obviously, bit this is a big town ping

why is that a town ping?

@Tanner: you not wanting to go with numberQ and DArby makes me slightly suspicious that VP and I are both town and you're scum trying to get in with us so there's one scum among us. You saying DArby should be with VP and me if you're not doesn't do much to dissuade me from that concern.

That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed.
For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you.

This also pings me as towny. The fact that the 2nd paragraph is exactly what happened kinda gives wifom-y vibes but I said I'd keep my takes spicy so I'll stick with townvibes

same question.

[Tanner]

oh yeah, one more thing. for like... almost a week now, i've been coming up with a ted talk regarding the three of us that are at the gate. i wanted to post it after baltar and imaginality give their thoughts on their ~opponent~ and who is most likely scum with them and etc. but also i would like to post it at the time that both of them are online and reading, since i would like some sorta real-time reactions. so, yeah, uh, hopefully that happens soon and i won't have to stay up until like 4am for it.

[Tanner]

lol, thanks. my first thought upon reading the flavour was "god, i wish that fire had fucking killed me" though.

real time for tomorrow sounds good, i don't wanna ~influence~ your catching up.

[Tanner]

was that a bit too dark? i dunno. anyway, i'm starting to think my "who would you ic if you were scum" is actually a pointless exercise because i feel like things like that are rarely decided by one person.

i'm gonna get a cup of coffee myself too, then i'll go through baltar/tanner/imaginality triple iso to finally check something that i've been meaning to check.

i'm not yet thinking about the order of the games, but for some reason i feel like i want to get the wall out of the way. the issue is that the wall overall feels the least... like, the people on the wall overall feel like they've given the least. which is annoying.

anyway, i'm gonna go for a walk, then some coffee, then i'm back.

[Tanner]

currently out on a walk, but i just had an idea. so note for myself and anyone else who wants - how did baltar go from "yeah ok me/implo/imag can go to the same location if you want" to "i don't trust you to call a location, but 2/3 is fine"?

[Tanner]

Ari was actively trying to say I was scum for voting first, and he agreed with Ari (at the time only me and ari had voted in, so I doubt he thought ari was calling herself scum) - But immediately 180'ed to say that my vote was +town once he got push back on it. Which feels like one or both of those those thoughts were not genuine, and it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract. Do not like.

this is something that i should be probably asking imaginality, since he made the same point, but there may be more value in asking luke - where's the pushback baltar got for it? i went back to reread the section, and it didn't seem to me that anyone was like, especially pressuring baltar for saying it.

[Tanner]

Why are you leaning towards the wall first?

bold of you to fucking assume i have thoughts behind the things i'm saying

maybe the fact that that game overall feels the scummiest? or maybe it's because it's the one with the lowest winrate, which i kinda want to get out of the way. i feel like i want either keep or wall out first, because i have this thought that baltar and imaginality trying to solve the games with each other's scumflip in mind, and then us resolving some of those games will somehow help me read them?

[Tanner]

i've just realized a very convoluted way we could potentially clear a slot by flips without actually flipping anyone. i'm trying to think it through, will report back in a few.

[Tanner]

ok, here's my thoughts. when you have 1 scum in 2 people, we can preflip some ideas as +scum without actually flipping anyone. what i mean is, if we find an idea that both of baltar and imaginality supported, we can assume that it's a pro-scum idea, because at least one scum was in favour of it. and i just realized that there is a funny coincidence here:

VP Baltar, DArby, imaginality

Maybe flip Tanner and DArby

@Tanner: you not wanting to go with numberQ and DArby makes me slightly suspicious that VP and I are both town and you're scum trying to get in with us so there's one scum among us. You saying DArby should be with VP and me if you're not doesn't do much to dissuade me from that concern.

That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed.
For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you.

now, an exercise for the reader: if both of baltar and imaginality wanted either me or darby at the same location, and it's confirmed that i am town and that there is 1 scum in baltar/imaginality... what alignment does that make the darby slot?

[Tanner]

come on i feel like i just dropped something interesting, where the fuck did everyone go

[Tanner]

You're saying because Imag/VPB both wanted Darby in [location] with them, that means Darby should be the same alignment as you?

As in scum don't want to stack 2 scum in a spot, so if 2 people [1scum] want a player in a spot with them, that player is by default a town player?

yes, basically. imag/vpb both wanted to be in the same location, and wanted either me or darby with them. if we're going under the assumption that scum doesn't want to stack multiple scum in the same spot...

[Tanner]

hm. i just realized none of those three are assigned yet. we could shove them into the same location.

Looks like a potential town bloc to me. So sure. Where would you put us?

(Also, only two people are assigned, so making a point like that group is avoiding assignment sounds forced)

why were you at first fine with this suggestion?

[Tanner]

no, that's fair, i'm definitely not saying to vote pav just because of that.

i'm also wondering if something can be read into that, considering pav was one of the people that was swapped. not sure i actually got anything, though.

[Tanner]

will you be mad at me if i say no?

[Tanner]

I would guess I had also not yet had the idea of flipping you with imaginality and me as a way to guarantee you weren't duping me.

okay, so. it occurred to you that i might be mafia, and that i'm trying to brute force the three of you because you're 2-1 and because i just love powerwolfing so much. so you instead decided to include me with you and imaginality, because... you thought imaginality is more likely to be scum than implo? like, as far as i remember, you were townreading both of them at that point. wouldn't including me with two of you, if i'm scum, help me achieve the 1-1-1 split from your pov? like, what was the danger of me here?

[Tanner]

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

[Tanner]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

[Tanner]

to make clear, i don't think i'm gonna get much because my reaction is mostly "yeah i guess" and i don't think there's any slips there strong enough that i would bet my vote on so.

[Tanner]

It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.

can you dumb this down for me? x_x

[Tanner]

In terms of being around for real time reactions, Tanner, I'm usually asleep around 12pm UTC to 7pm UTC, I'm off work this week so happy to coordinate with you and VP on any time that suits you both outside that.

alright, thanks. a little bit unfortunate considering that's around the time i wake up these days, but we'll manage.

[Tanner]

I proposed Toogeloo as the third in post 275 and then argued against DArby and for Tanner being the third in post 314. On the other hand VP initially proposed DArby as the third and only said 'maybe swap DArby for Tanner' so it's not like Tanner was his first pick for the third slot.

how is 314 arguing against darby being the third in you/vp?

[Tanner]

it's actually really annoying how many times during this day i wanted to say "so what is your read on me then?" to remember i'm the ic

life is pain

[Tanner]

what is your read on me, aristeia?

[Tanner]

Spoiler: super sekrit aristeia read

my face is actually red and i can't quite tell if it's the beer or you

[Tanner]

btw I think you should make up your mind about when you want the first minigame to be resolved because we're ~9 days from deadline and you want time to analyze the flips, I'd say minimum 3 days for 1st flips and 3 days for 2nd flips and there's also New Year's.

i'm aware, but my hands are kind of tied right now. because a lot will be based on the analysis-with-scum!other vp and imaginality do, and their realtime reactions with me. and those things need to happen before flips. (because, don't tell anyone, but i'm not actually super convinced by one side scumcasing what is confirmed scum to them, at least not in this gamestate.)

[Tanner]

If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game.

wait

this is in relation that i wanted you and imaginality at the same place because i thought you two were scumbuddies, no?

why would you go "i was gonna follow tanner there bc his early game reads are better than mine" when my early game read was that you're scum with imaginality?

[Tanner]

mmm
okay, i'll think about that tomorrow

how far are you in catching up?

[Tanner]

implo, off the top of my head i cannot remember any of your reads or reasoning you gave for them. maybe i'm distracted, maybe i'm bad at this game. but like, it's not a point in your favour.

[Tanner]

I've been pretty clear with my reads, I think, Tanner. And I've given reasoning for the ones at Wall. I'm happy to justify why I think Luke is so town if you want, and am happy to wax about VP and imaginality but I honestly doubt I can really reasonably read the two of them better than 50/50.

the only thing i was able to remember from you is that vp is town because dumbtell. scrolling back, the point on toog being prepared is nice but it's like, i dunno, is that all? it didn't give me the impression you're actually solving a lot. i dunno why i have the impression that you Should be solving more but here we are

Why would scum imaginality's opinion on who the third person in his minigame was change depending on if it was the wall vs the gate here - but I can totally see the town motivation behind not wanting the DArby slot made into the IC, but being okay with Tanner being made into the IC.

i'm probably egocentric, but the way i read it - i always end up at the gate. now, i'm not gonna say it's impossible for someone who sees me for the first time to want me to be made an ic if possible, especially considering my play this game. but if imaginality is scum, it makes me wonder if my reads were so backwards, scum decided i was needed to be the ic

There's so much pointless mech talk in this game.. fucking kill me.

big agree

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game, in which case we could knock out our game first. But that's going to be Tanner's call after we chat I suppose.

okay, here we go. why do you think i should be able to Easily townread you?

It literally makes no sense for me to do that as scum with how it went down.

i'm kind of a broken record here, but - why would this not make sense for scum!you to do? like, you worked with my reads to suggest a game sort, sure. and my reads on day one were pretty clearly "vp and imaginality can be buddies, but imaginality is much scummier than vp". like, what about what you did on day 1 makes no sense for scum!you to do?

posting this now because this game is taking like twice as long to read as usual because i just keep pausing after every second post and regretting my life decisions, be back in a bit

[Tanner]

ok let's keep reading

Tanner, I'll be around at my usual hours tomorrow. We tend to have overlap early in my day. Let's chat then.

looking forward to it.

i'm a bit distracted, what games did ari read again for meta?

ok i read up and i don't think i have explicit comments on anything that i should be getting out at this moment in time.

[Tanner]

pav, would you say that your scum performance in to tell the truth is close to your current scum performance? i think i recall you saying that you were still new at that point, but.

[Tanner]

Tanner, do you know what Ari's main is? No need to tell me. Just wondering yes or no.

i believe i do, but i don't know for sure.

[Tanner]

so, am doing the thing that i said so many times i don't do. i'm looking up second hand meta for the only game i know of vp where he was scum in a 1v1. and you know what i'm getting from this meta research? absolutely nothing! yet i'm still doing it!!

[Tanner]

i finished my research! it did not help at all!

[Tanner]

and that's not really how I play scum.

though, i did find a few "if i were scum i would totally not be doing this haha" in the game i read, so... how would you have played this if you were scum, then?

[Tanner]

no, it was the triple strongman buddy with dunnstral game.

[Tanner]

i think it's likely baltar is townie too. 11, 49, and 57 are obviously angling to go to the same location as me. he knows how paranoid i get of him and how i'm sometimes prone to think he's scum for most bullshit reasons, see that pick your poison game. so unless he's the same petty asshole i am, he's probably town.

this is a post that i myself did write a week ago i GUESS

i'm starting to wonder why did i even /in into this game, considering i utterly hate lylos as town and have never won one when i was the deciding vote. i think i might really be a masochist.

Going to the gate means you don't have to do that

do you remember what the idea was behind this post?

[Tanner]

...you mean wall?

[Tanner]

i hate being the deciding vote, not playing yelos period. probably doesn't matter because i can't see how it's alignment indicative for you anyway but yeah

does scum!vp see that one dumbtell kinda worked and tries to force more of them? rhetorical question, don't have to answer that.

[Tanner]

Ari and imaginality are kind of both poking around me and trying to suggest strats for the Keep that put Ari in a position of power.

can you give an example of what you mean by this?

[Tanner]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

was this ever explained *why* you thought so?

[Tanner]

I am not sure if it's been said in thread but I think there is scum equity between VP/Ari. I'm not done reading the VP iso but I feel much more murky on it than I did on imaginality's.

what made you think vp/ari have scum equity?

[Tanner]

I was asking him questions and not getting responses, and when I do get responses they don't make a ton of sense to me, and when I asked follow up questions I was told that he just did not think about it that hard....

can you link me examples of this happening, especially the latter?

and i'm thinking. who are you currently leaning on being scum on your location?

[Tanner]

what do you think about baltar and imaginality's cases on who the other's partners are? and in general what they've posted against each other today?

[Tanner]

i was hoping you'd focus more on the first part of the question. namely, 859 and 971.

[Tanner]

Tanner, I thought you wanted to jam on some stuff? I'm still around

mmm, there is one more thing i did specifically have in mind, but i'm mulling over if i need both you and imaginality to be around or just you.

okay, i think you disagreed with me on my idea that the wall should go first. you want keep, right? if it were up to you, who votes whom there?

[Tanner]

oh shit, both of you are here. i'll start typing up what had in mind.

[Tanner]

971 does not have a VP case in it, it is an assosiative post - But I did really like imaginality's associative points in here. I found myself nodding along to all of it, and the final conclusion matched about my own reads. Ari town, pav scum in the keep. Implo town at the wall.

that is what i wanted you to look at - i know they're gonna call each other scum, i wanted you to tell me what you think about their points on people other than their 1v1 buddy.

now that you mention it, baltar's cases aren't really associate-based. except for that other thing that he said he'll present and i can't remember right now if he has or hasn't done that because memory of a goldfish, but

[Tanner]

ok, i don't think he did.

[Tanner]

i think i was mulling over some complex luke+someone scumcase based on associates but at this moment i don't remember what i was even thinking there, i should be writing these things down

[Tanner]

He says I should be updating my reads based on my questioning but when I ask him when this should have happened he seems to back off

can you link what specifically you're referring to here?

[Tanner]

Do you want me to answer this also?

sure, why not. up to you, who votes whom in the keep?

[Tanner]

if i really were to meme this game i'd say that in the keep, y'all should vote Pav, Actually

but the issue is, i do still feel some little bit of being not terribad at reading pav, and right now he's not posted enough Quality to make me think he's townie

[Tanner]

ok i just realized that i've been staring at this game for the last 3 hours and that i uhhh forgot to eat dinner lmao i'm gonna do that now

i have the thing typed up in my notes so when baltar does whatever it was that i asked him to do and when my gate comrades both say they're here, i'm gonna post it

after typing it up i realized it makes absolutely no sense but i am not known for making cases that make sense

[Tanner]

pav, should i be concerned that your response to my "i lowkey want pav voted but he hasn't convinced me he's town" was basically "lol you should do it tho"

[Tanner]

read the game, give a solve, or at least weigh in on every single minigame

so like yes lol what kinda question is that

pedit: @rh9

[Tanner]

this is not really game related but i've been thinking about it for a bit - baltar's avatar is really aesthetically pleasing when paired with the sepia forum skin i have on this account

[Tanner]

i want a detailed solve on my desk by tomorrow morning

[Tanner]

*summoning imaginality*

[Tanner]

meh, while we wait - baltar, if we're to flip keep first. would any flip in the keep have a significant effect on your read of the wall?

[Tanner]

oh thank fuck i can finally post this garbage:

okay, so while the game was in the night phase, i thought about this game once or twice. i thought how 414 is a post that makes baltar town some 99% of the time in this game, at least. "but why?" listen. i could remember him saying something similar as town in mini normal 2195. how he can flip reads from just one post. and the fact that he's calling to that here is very townie i think. because from my experience of him as a scum player, he's careful. he tries to make his trajectory make sense and be consistent. when i was recently rereading his iso from the one scumgame i played with him, his read changes usually looked like "well, i reread this player's iso, and..." or "i went to meta reserach, and...". changing reads in-the-moment from a singular post, so completely gut based, is something that is

difficult

for scum to fake. so i don't think scum!baltar has any reason to be doing this callback. it's difficult to fake, it's easy to get tripped up on it when you're faking gut reads, and it doesn't really look that townie anyway. and i guarantee you he does not remember that he said that some 9 months ago and that this is an elaborate pocket attempt.

so, i fully expected that i'm gonna enter this game, see that baltar is the ic, and that i'm gonna look like a moron because i'm gonna present a batshit insane meta towncase on the ic and i'll get hammered and scum will win and etc.

now, that did not happen.

that is a problem.

that is a problem because, every. single. time. i thought "ok, X is [alignment], so Y will happen" when i was entering final 3, and then Y

didn't

happen, it turned out that X

wasn't

[alignment].

Spoiler: some meta that is not really relevant but shows examples of the above

thinking luca is town, i am going to die? a different person died, luca was scum (2192). thinking outworld is scum and that ico is going to die? i died, outworld was town (2201). thinking salsa will die and that chaosomega is scum? nope, enchant died, salsa was scum, fuck you (2239).

it works in the opposite direction, too. jungle oligarchy, night 2 - baltar and i have been driving that town. either one of us dies tonight, or he's scum. i died, he was town. lovely.

so. when i entered the night, knowing i called vp town prior to day end, and when i was pretty sure that he's town and he's gonna be ic and i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

yeah, he didn't get ic'ed. do you see my problem here?

[Tanner]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

"hey guys, i was like, really sure that baltar is town but oopsie i guess he's the ic now, i guess imaginality must be scum, i totally didn't make this towncase up to make myself look better during the night"

maybe scummy is a better word there

[Tanner]

ok but what's the point of applying pressure to me?

I am gathering information to make reads off.

I don't really care if the scum think they are going to play off that because I almost never put all my thoughts on the table until I'm ready to push something.

I will go all out tunneling someone to see how they act and then call them town. Ill flip on locktown reads ive had all game if i see something solidly scummy. Good luck to scum trying to plan off my reads, because even I can't do that.

Also it's not like he posted his "this is how I play as town" post unprompted, it was a defence to Ari asking him why he backed off his line of questioning of her.

hm? wasn't that when she was asking him why he's questioning her in the first place?

[Tanner]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

"hey guys, i was like, really sure that baltar is town but oopsie i guess he's the ic now, i guess imaginality must be scum, i totally didn't make this towncase up to make myself look better during the night"

maybe scummy is a better word there

Like you would have posted it after the day start?

yeah. imagined i was gonna walk into the game, see that you're the ic, still post my case because what else am i to do, and i'll be called out as "suspicious that you have a towncase on the person that just so happened to be the ic, huh?"

[Tanner]

anyway, that is what has been going through my head once day started. i was dead certain i was gonna walk into the game, see that baltar's the ic, and face an uphill 1v1 battle. instead... i was made the ic. and my first gut reaction was that i was very wrong somewhere.

[Tanner]

there's basically no world in which it makes sense for you to post that case on VpB if you are both in the Gate together

sorry, what does this mean?

[Tanner]

yeah, i am aware. which is why i expected either him to be ic'ed, or for one of us to get moved. and the fact that neither happened is like

like i said i was townreading baltar and i said that i felt like he was gonna get ic'ed and that that would be a waste

and then i wake up to see i'm ic'ed?

[Tanner]

it's not like i can just ignore the thoughts that came to me, though

but that's not even the main point here

[Tanner]

anyway, here's the thing. if i'm going by my own reads and nothing else, i vote imaginality here without question. his wall of "objective" reasons why vp is scum was... oh boy (though it's forgivable considering town can very much get confbiased when they're casing someone they know is scum), but 971 is. i don't like using buzzwords but it feels very IIoA-y. it actually reminds me of something scum!me would write. for like half the wall, i felt like i was reading at it was like, ok i get it, he did this, she did that, where's the conclusion behind this?

which is also why i asked lukewarm what he thinks and he said he thought it was townie (what???) but i think some other have also expressed they're leaning baltar > imaginality and they can't all be scum so it's possible i am the one who's pocketed and confbiased to shit. especially as i feel like baltar is out of scumrange here. like the post on why ari/imaginality are partners - i think something like that is difficult to fake.

but. but but but. prior to going into the night, my public read was "those two are partners, but if they're t/s, imaginality is the s". and does scum!imaginality do this to himself? ic the person that said that they think he's scum and the person who he's supposed to 1v1 is town?

[Tanner]

I just don't think he would have seen your read of that post as a specific super-important factor in that town read. More just a general sense you town read him more than me.

nah, i'm aware there's no way that baltar could've guessed i would've found 414 to be an Extremely Townie post. but i expressed a townread on him beforehand so

[Tanner]

@Tanner - reposting this since it's a few pages back now and I'm keen for you to consider this (the second part)

i'm considering it. it's probably the best case you have written for vp being scum throughout this entire game not gonna lie

[Tanner]

I find it strange that no one else responded to RH's posts, or to my posts to him. Definitely the most interesting thing that has happened in the last couple pages from my PoV, so seems weird to see it go ignored.

i wanted to give the dude time to like, iso everyone and then present his thoughts. my first thought was "surely scum isn't this clueless when they enter the game" but i can't actually say that with any degree of certainty

[Tanner]

i'm wondering if i should just do the thing where i ask everyone to fake vote between these two and then just go with the majority

surely nothing bad can happen right

[Tanner]

another thing is, scum's wincon isn't "win the gate", it's "win 2/3". it did occur to me that if imaginality is scum, this game is probably deeply deeply fucked because why else is he here?

[Tanner]

i think i now want to flip the keep first for reasons not known even to me

[Tanner]

I think he waited for someone to post suspicions about him + someone else that would give him a good match up so he could build his allocations post around it. And saw your posts about us being buddies and leapt onto that.

It is insane the number of pre-planned things you've alleged I've done.

I don't see how anyone can feasibly townread this. Unless you think I'm like one of the best scum players on the site, it is crazy to think that imaginality legitimately believes the things he's posting.

you know how throughout this game you were like "but what if tanner is this 9000 IQ powerwolf who's trying to force all of the assignments in such a way to fulfill his nefarious plans!??!!?!?"

well i now get to paranoia you the same way, isn't that fun?

[Tanner]

my issue with the keep is like. i have no fucking clue who is scum there, lol. if i'm going with my brain, i'd want luke voted. but if i'm going with my gut, i'd want pav because goddamn i still really like the "both vp and imaginality wanted pav to be their third" idea

[Tanner]

but that is literally the only point in pav's favour here as i am not exactly Impressed by the rest of his stuff so like idk lol

on the other hand, flipping wall first would be nice because it gets the most difficult game out of the way. but like, i have no clue what the info from it would even do

[Tanner]

my issue with the keep is like. i have no fucking clue who is scum there, lol. if i'm going with my brain, i'd want luke voted. but if i'm going with my gut, i'd want pav because goddamn i still really like the "both vp and imaginality wanted pav to be their third" idea

You said this before too but I never said I wanted DArby? In 273 I said DArby and numberQ should go together, in 275 I suggested Toog should be the third with me and VP (i saw us as potentially T/T/T), and in 314 I said it should be you.

in 314, you also said "For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you." which is what i was referring to when i said you were okay with him coming along with you two

[Tanner]

ari, which one of vp and imaginality is scum, and what do you think about my points on imaginality's associate-case looking Not Good?

[Tanner]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

how do keep associatives look bad for him? as far as i remember, every single person at the keep has called imaginality townie