My take on it is elimination doesn't fully confirm but could in some scenarios. Basically if X flips the opposite of their result it shows that they were the random one therefore the other result is reliable. But If X flips the same as their result you don't know much more about Y as X's result could have been reliable or random.In post 17, ArcAngel9 wrote:Wont X elimination confirms that Y result was untrue.In post 16, HockeyFan wrote:no? If we get Player X and Player Y. and Player x's role is innocent, and they get a true result, they will be annouced as town. However, lets say we roll a 6 on the 1VX(number of mafia), Players Y's role will be announced as town even if they are mafia so we do we really have confirms? I could just be stupid
Elimination does reveal their rule faction isn't it?
Open 823 - To Tell The Truth | Game Over
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"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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It seems like it could be somewhat risky for scum to include scum in the investigation targets as there's a chance (1/3 chance right now but will vary depending on elims) that two guilties get returned and then we'd know at least one of the two is scum."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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2/8 if we elim scum.In post 55, Zyla wrote:
Nono, one is true, the other isIn post 50, ArcAngel9 wrote:D1 reveals the identity of two players - One of it is True and the other is false. Eliminate one and the other gets confirmed.possiblyfalse
Specifically, the one we get tomorrow will have a 3/8 chance of rolling guilty, regardless of whether or not they are
(I'm assuming we can't do a no-lim because that would break this setup in a couple of nights)"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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This last sentence makes me think T3 scum cyrus town.In post 67, T3 wrote:In post 58, HockeyFan wrote:Wait wtf cyrus might be town?
T3 what are you doing and why are you like this. I dont understand the pattern of your votes
I know exactly what alignment cyrus is but we don't want to do anything with him yet.
T3, can you explain what you meant by that sentence?
P-edit: so do you think cyrus is town? Or scum?
I agree with this, at best it seemed like a big post to say essentially nothing (except for the idea that eliminating one investigation target confirms the other, which definitely isn't true in most cases).In post 69, HockeyFan wrote:
I said earlier that post was mainly trying to discredit's peoples early reads(such as T3 scum, N_M town e.tc)In post 68, ArcAngel wrote:
So what part of what i said was scummy?."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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In post 68, ArcAngel9 wrote:
I have a better theory. I think you and hockey are scum together!In post 52, cyrus62 wrote:so i think arc and t3 are scum together.
This seems omgussy?
'not advancing the game' isn't the same as lurking (the latter is a subset of the former). Posts like your "it's too early!" #53 don't exactly advance the game either.In post 68, ArcAngel9 wrote:In post 60, HockeyFan wrote:
Having mid meld together!! More reasons to believe that i might be right about both of your scum partnership!
I don't think a scum pairing would openly say they're mind melding? Seems more like something they wouldn't want to comment on.
In post 68, ArcAngel9 wrote:
This is a wrong tell.. there are plenty of town players who just lurk and play lousy. And i have seen more competent active players who outplay town players.In post 65, cyrus62 wrote:Truth is when scum hunting I try to look for who isn't helping advanced the game and is just posting to post. Or is trying to seem townier then every one else.
I think Cyrus's approach is a useful one especially early game."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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VOTE: T3In post 72, T3 wrote:Won't say.
This 'I have a read but I won't tell you it yet' seems anti-town. Seems like keeping it unspoken means you can wait to see whether others lean cyrus:town or cyrus:scum so you can then say that's what your read was too."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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The special rules say 'plurality elimination mechanics' but the general rules say "Elimination - Eliminations will be by majority. If there is no majority by deadline, then there is No Elimination".In post 55, Zyla wrote:
Nono, one is true, the other isIn post 50, ArcAngel9 wrote:D1 reveals the identity of two players - One of it is True and the other is false. Eliminate one and the other gets confirmed.possiblyfalse
Specifically, the one we get tomorrow will have a 3/8 chance of rolling guilty, regardless of whether or not they are
(I'm assuming we can't do a no-lim because that would break this setup in a couple of nights)@mod do the special rules have priority?"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Not convinced. You could watch and wait without needing to make that earlier "I know what cyrus is but I'm not telling" post.In post 81, T3 wrote:lol
cyrus is obvscum by meta
he usually townreads his partners for bad reasons early on
so I was waiting for him to out his partners
If you "know" T3 is scum why aren't you voting him?In post 78, cyrus62 wrote:now i know t3 is scum trying to shade me early knowing im always a easy elimination."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Do you have a view on T3 and/or cyrus?In post 87, Not_Mafia wrote:Maybe we're all scum"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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To be fair, he crumbed the much rarer role,In post 110, Not_Mafia wrote:
Why would you crumb VT? And why would you reveal it on page 5 d1?In post 106, cyrus62 wrote:use the 1st later of every word before i ask how everyone is doing
VaillaTownie."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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In post 90, imaginality wrote:
Do you have a view on T3 and/or cyrus?In post 87, Not_Mafia wrote:Maybe we're all scum"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Your radar is off.In post 109, goats wrote:I just ISOd the mod twice ama
imaginality is outed fwiw he's the most scummy
Are you calling me scum based off a hunch (in which case, you're wrong but hey, you do you), or for perceived reasons (in which case, please share)?"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Those are two different scenarios.
T3 wasn't scum reading cyrus, just saying "I know what he is" without saying which alignment or why.
Since my post, he's clarified it's a scum read and voted cyrus. But would he have clarified that if he hadn't been pushed on that point?
Cyrus was scum reading T3 and saying why, but not voting him. Not voting a scum read is suspicious at first glance, but I want to hear from cyrus before voting him for it.
Cyrus hasn't replied yet. T3 had replied ("won't say") when I voted him."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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For me if I think "cyrus is scum and will make it obvious who his scumbuddies are if we watch and wait" I'd watch and wait, not say 'ooh I know cyrus's alignment but I'm not telling'. Seems like it offers no value to town to say that at that point but does offer some fence-sitting value to scum.In post 166, MegAzumarill wrote:
This feels like a highly speculative post that essentially boils down to "T3 is being scummy if they are in the majority"In post 74, imaginality wrote:
VOTE: T3In post 72, T3 wrote:Won't say.
This 'I have a read but I won't tell you it yet' seems anti-town. Seems like keeping it unspoken means you can wait to see whether others lean cyrus:town or cyrus:scum so you can then say that's what your read was too.
It doesn't feel like something a townie would push."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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I'm sceptical about your read on me!In post 146, goats wrote:
this post is really scummy I thinkIn post 125, imaginality wrote:
Your radar is off.In post 109, goats wrote:I just ISOd the mod twice ama
imaginality is outed fwiw he's the most scummy
Are you calling me scum based off a hunch (in which case, you're wrong but hey, you do you), or for perceived reasons (in which case, please share)?
the way imaginality treats me is with no scepticism. I'd expect some considering I just called him a wolf and his top scum read town
I don't have strong reads at this point, it's not like I think T3 is lockscum. His recent posts don't bother me so much. If I wasn't voting him I'd be voting ArcAngel most likely, also for somewhat weak reasons (the early chainsawing post and a sense she's been happy to go under the radar somewhat since then). Or mega for reasons below.
Sure, you might be scum but I see you as more likely town drawing wrong conclusions. I don't see you disagreeing on reads at this stage as scummy in and of itself. You seem to be trying to figure stuff out and make stuff happen compared to fake reasoning and gliding.
I'm more suspicious of Mega for only turning up and voting me after seeing others attacking me. Seems like he's jumping on me for convenience seeing me as a safe target to scum read."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Here's what Mega said about me:
Hunch, no analysis.In post 163, MegAzumarill wrote:VOTE: imaginality
Their interactions with T3 give off a weird vibe to me.
Bolded is a complete misrepresentation of my point.In post 166, MegAzumarill wrote:
This feels like a highly speculative post thatIn post 74, imaginality wrote:
VOTE: T3In post 72, T3 wrote:Won't say.
This 'I have a read but I won't tell you it yet' seems anti-town. Seems like keeping it unspoken means you can wait to see whether others lean cyrus:town or cyrus:scum so you can then say that's what your read was too.essentially boils down to "T3 is being scummy if they are in the majority"
It doesn't feel like something a townie would push.
... And that's all.
So...
In post 180, HockeyFan wrote:
Wait, I just saw this, can you elaborate k tyIn post 169, T3 wrote:Meg town I think.
Where is this 'good analysis' you speak of? Choosing such a flimsy reason to call T3 town makes me wonder if you're trying to shift attention away from him. Are you buddies?In post 181, T3 wrote:Good analysis of imaginality and I don't think they are s/s."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Cyrus is making quite a bit more sense this game than he did in Owner's Market Blitz, D1 at least.In post 177, Not_Mafia wrote:I'd be relentlessly bussing cyrus if I were scum here"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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I can see T3 and Meg as possible buddies, that second post is the sort of scum buddy in-game chat I've seen. (though I don't know if that happens so much in games with daytalk?)In post 238, goats wrote:In post 169, T3 wrote:Meg town I think.In post 171, T3 wrote:Meg, thoughts on cyrus?
I would like thoughts on these posts, as they partain to T3's alignment, and his partner equity (high or low) with MegIn post 181, T3 wrote:Good analysis of imaginality and I don't think they are s/s.
Obviously I disagree with the 'good analysis' of imaginality, for reasons I already stated in D1, so it seems odd to me T3 is calling Meg town for that.
I'd say scum who are in danger of being eliminated (as T3 was) are less likely look to call other people town rather than looking for reasons to add suspicion to others. Which would be a small point towards Meg perhaps being scum if T3 is."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Because an early quick-hammer shortens discussion which is usually a bad thing (gives us less info to go on on the next day) so if he's still likely to quickhammer I'd want to be surer of my read if I'm putting someone to E-1 early today, compared with if he only plays like that D1.In post 250, goats wrote:
Why do you ask?In post 249, imaginality wrote:I haven't played with Not_Mafia before, is quick-hammering something he does every day or just D1?"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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I agree with my past self but it is worth noting that since we mis-eliminated cyrus D1, scum have more leeway to take risky actions compared to if we'd eliminated Scum D1. They can afford to risk sacrificing someone.In post 231, goats wrote:
This post is relevantIn post 24, imaginality wrote:It seems like it could be somewhat risky for scum to include scum in the investigation targets as there's a chance (1/3 chance right now but will vary depending on elims) that two guilties get returned and then we'd know at least one of the two is scum.
Reviewing the results today, the scenarios I'm trying to fit each resultandnon-result into are:
1. Is this person town and scum were hoping for a guilty on them to make a mis-elim more likely?
2. Is this person scum and scum were hoping for an inno on them to protect them from elimination?
3. Is this person town and scumchose not totarget them because they didn't want them to return an inno (and move closer to being conftown) ?
4. Is this person scum and scumchose not totarget them because they didn't want them to return a guilty (and move closer to being confscum)?
5. Wifom confusion random who knows-ness
To an extent this does just boil down to, 'is this person town or scum?' so maybe this is over thinking it. But for example, if ArcAngel hadn't returned an inno today I was planning to vote her for her vote on the cyrus wagon. So I feel like scum could have included her as a target, to sacrifice her if she returned guilty or protect her if she returned inno.
I do take your point, goats, that on baseline stats, both ArcAngel and Not_Mafia are more likely than not to be town. (I think baseline is each of them is about 82% likely to be town). I don't think we should be targeting either of them today."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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I think I still prefer a T3 vote. Didn't like the way the pressure shifted away from T3 to cyrus yesterday, so I feel like if T3 is scum there's scum on the cyrus wagon (aside from T3 and cyrus, that was Zyla, ArcAngel and Not_Mafia).
With Meg I could go along with a wagon but I'd rather see more from him first. I'm wary I'm overreacting to the bad case he made on me. I'll have time to reread this evening - I want to look at others too.
For example, I didn't like this from HockeyFan:
HockeyFan, why did you say you'd look into Zyla - what makes Zyla less likely to be town than the others on the cyrus wagon?In post 225, HockeyFan wrote:Im not gonna really do this even
ifyou're town because you didnt look town at all. I probs look more into zyla, but I think the other people who voted you could be town, also cryus why did u self hammer lol"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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On my re-read I found Zyla and find her posts about cyrus/T3 interesting. Especially cyrus. I'd previously had a vague town-lean on her but when I did a deeper read this is what I noticed:
Spoiler: Zyla's vote on cyrus
Spoiler: asking why Hockey thought cyrus could be town
Spoiler: meta posts
Spoiler: on cyrus's comments about ArcAngel
Spoiler: T3 worried about getting eliminated
Spoiler: In response for cyrus asking Zyla to unvote him
Vote: Zyla
I think some of these points need answering."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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In post 256, imaginality wrote:
HockeyFan, why did you say you'd look into Zyla - what makes Zyla less likely to be town than the others on the cyrus wagon?In post 225, HockeyFan wrote:Im not gonna really do this even
ifyou're town because you didnt look town at all. I probs look more into zyla, butI think the other people who voted you could be town, also cryus why did u self hammer lol
Explain how these can both be true, because it looks like an obvious contradiction to me.In post 263, HockeyFan wrote:In post 247, MegAzumarill wrote:HockeyFan can you go over a readlist with your reasonings for your reads, I'm seeing a lot of strong reads and I don't really see where they are coming from.
Also, regarding 256, there were 5 people on the vote.
Goats(who i trd), t3(who i trd),Arc(who i srd at the time), cyrus and zyla(someone i didnt really have a read on), so thats why i said what i said"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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This set-up reveals one true and one random result each day. The random result has the same chance of returning a guilty as picking any player at random would (37.5% last night since there were 3 scum alive from 8 players total).
So from your "I know I'm town" pov, NM could be either town or scum - the NM result gives no information to you. For the rest of us, we know you and NM definitely aren't scum-buddies but it's still possible for either of you to be scum."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Anyone want to join me on a Zyla wagon? Or at least give their views on my Zyla case?
Literally everyone has posted since then and no one's directly commented on it."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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What's your reason for calling Hockey opportunist?In post 282, ArcAngel9 wrote: Then we should eliminate the opportunist scum Hockey!"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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In post 292, Zyla wrote:
The second one is correctIn post 261, imaginality wrote:So if Zyla's town, either she found stronger reasons to keep her vote on cyrus (if so, what?) or she never had any better reason to vote anyone else?
The idea that you placed a very early vote on cyrus for an extremely weak reason and didn't find any better reason to vote anyone else (or even a better reason to confirm your vote on cyrus) for the rest of the day doesn't sit well with the idea that you're town trying to solve the game.
In post 292, Zyla wrote: I'm confused to what those two posts have to do with each other at all
Yeah, I think I got mixed up here - looked like you were replying to HockeyFan when I reread in iso but you were actually replying to my post. Point withdrawn.
In post 292, Zyla wrote:
I do find Cyrus to be frustrating, but whether or not NM is frustrating to play with, I've also heard good things about NM's scumhunting ability, whereas the games I've been in Cyrus have not given me the same trust in his abilities. SoIn post 261, imaginality wrote: If Zyla was voting cyrus for the crumbing (ie basically for his play style), why cyrus and not NM whose playstyle she describes as 'pretty frustrating'? This makes me doubt the genuineness of the continued cyrus vote.if my vote were based on who I didn't want to play with, of those two it wouldn't be NM
Wasn't that what your vote actually was based on? I.e. cyrus being cyrus. This bolded line gives me the sense your vote on cyrus was for other reasons (such as cyrus being an easier mis-elim for scum to push).
Also if you're scum then the fact you see NM as good at scum hunting gives additional motivation to not vote him, i.e. to not draw his attention onto you...
In post 292, Zyla wrote:
I was partially focusing on the exact word choice, yes, it seemed a little buzzy, especially since I didn't agree that it was strong enough for the words to be accurate. I touched on this lightly in 183In post 261, imaginality wrote: I find it suspicious that Zyla was focusing on the semantics rather than either: looking for substantive reasons to either confirm her read on cyrus or clear him, or looking at other players to see if she could find a stronger scumread.
When cyrus answered Zyla in post 202, Zyla didn't respond to him. Was this desire for clarification just an excuse to continue to keep her vote on him?
This doesn't really address my points:
a. That you were focused on semantics rather than on substance
b. That while you used this to keep your vote on cyrus, you didn't respond to cyrus's 202
In post 292, Zyla wrote:
I mean, I preferred Cyrus as the one to get eliminated, but T3 wasn't looking particularly towny to me, so I would've been fine with him too, yes.In post 261, imaginality wrote: Feels like Zyla either saw T3 as scummy or didn't care whether he was eliminated or not. If the latter, that's suspicious (especially if T3 turns out to be town). If the former, why didn't she voice any suspicions of him earlier?
An alternate take on the "I'd suggest giving us a reason to vote someone else" is scum coaching, which perhaps is boosted by the fact she says that even though her vote isn't on him. This might be a stretch but at the very least I don't think a Zyla scum flip would make T3 any more likely to be town.
When T3 does offer an alternative:
Again this sort of feels to me like Zyla not really caring about which one of T3 or cyrus gets eliminated. Considering her vote was on cyrus at the time this is a pretty lukewarm response to T3.In post 203, Zyla wrote:
Not really sure what meta you're meaning tbhIn post 201, T3 wrote:cyrus, vote him by meta.
'wasn't looking particularly towny'? That sounds very lukewarm when you said (below) he was one of your 'major suspicions'.
In post 203, Zyla wrote: As far as 'scumcoaching', if I were a scum partner, why would I say this in the main thread instead of the mafia thread, that just seems illogical to me.
If scum only chat in their day thread that makes them easy to spot so they have to have some main thread interactions too. Like I say, though, this line of thought isn't an additional reason to think you're scum. More just noting that if you are scum it's very compatible with T3 also being scum.
"your other major suspicion" was someone who you literally didn't mention until post 200 and even then you didn't give any reasons for suspecting him, just asked him to make a case on someone else?In post 292, Zyla wrote:
T3 was my other major suspicion. As for town reads, Hockey is looking towny to me, mostly by meta from our previous game.In post 261, imaginality wrote:
Zyla, what was it that made cyrus "one of your top suspects"? Aside from cyrus and ArcAngel, did you have other "top suspects" at that time? Was T3 one of your top suspects at the time of post 200?In post 216, Zyla wrote:I'm good where I am for now, you're one of my top suspects so I don't mind if you get eliminated
Do you have any town reads?
TLDR:
I really don't get the sense that you've been trying to solve this game at all. My vote's staying on you."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Hey Not_Mafia, I've never played with you. When can we expect you to start doing something useful? Zyla says you're a good scumhunter - who are your scum reads at this point and why?In post 300, Not_Mafia wrote:I don't care about finding scum, I just want to know why Cyrus crumbed VT"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Arc Zyla and me?
The Arc you called locktown D1 and only voted today due to you misunderstanding the setup, the Zyla who 12 hours ago you said is sounding townie, and the me who you haven't pushed at all, just said someone else's analysis of me was good (but not good enough to tempt you to vote me, mind you)?
As it happens I think Zyla is likely scum and I think there's a decent chance Arc might be, but I don't believe you genuinely suspect any of us.
vote: T3"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Goats, to address your points against me:
Difference in tone is because Meg gave a reason I could engage with whereas you didn't, you just called me scum.In post 320, goats wrote:In post 125, imaginality wrote:
Your radar is off.In post 109, goats wrote:I just ISOd the mod twice ama
imaginality is outed fwiw he's the most scummy
Are you calling me scum based off a hunch (in which case, you're wrong but hey, you do you), or for perceived reasons (in which case, please share)?
Look at the differences tonally and I'm approach in these responses to being wolf readIn post 167, imaginality wrote:
For me if I think "cyrus is scum and will make it obvious who his scumbuddies are if we watch and wait" I'd watch and wait, not say 'ooh I know cyrus's alignment but I'm not telling'. Seems like it offers no value to town to say that at that point but does offer some fence-sitting value to scum.In post 166, MegAzumarill wrote:
This feels like a highly speculative post that essentially boils down to "T3 is being scummy if they are in the majority"In post 74, imaginality wrote:
VOTE: T3In post 72, T3 wrote:Won't say.
This 'I have a read but I won't tell you it yet' seems anti-town. Seems like keeping it unspoken means you can wait to see whether others lean cyrus:town or cyrus:scum so you can then say that's what your read was too.
It doesn't feel like something a townie would push.
T3 was my main scumread D1, pointing out a reason to suspect him is hardly 'directing negative attention from Meg' (not sure if there was negative attention on Meg at that time anyhow?). I wasn't saying T3 scum Meg town, I was calling them scumbuddies.In post 321, goats wrote:In post 168, imaginality wrote:
I'm sceptical about your read on me!In post 146, goats wrote:
this post is really scummy I thinkIn post 125, imaginality wrote:
Your radar is off.In post 109, goats wrote:I just ISOd the mod twice ama
imaginality is outed fwiw he's the most scummy
Are you calling me scum based off a hunch (in which case, you're wrong but hey, you do you), or for perceived reasons (in which case, please share)?
the way imaginality treats me is with no scepticism. I'd expect some considering I just called him a wolf and his top scum read town
I don't have strong reads at this point, it's not like I think T3 is lockscum. His recent posts don't bother me so much. If I wasn't voting him I'd be voting ArcAngel most likely, also for somewhat weak reasons (the early chainsawing post and a sense she's been happy to go under the radar somewhat since then). Or mega for reasons below.
Sure, you might be scum but I see you as more likely town drawing wrong conclusions. I don't see you disagreeing on reads at this stage as scummy in and of itself. You seem to be trying to figure stuff out and make stuff happen compared to fake reasoning and gliding.
I'm more suspicious of Mega for only turning up and voting me after seeing others attacking me. Seems like he's jumping on me for convenience seeing me as a safe target to scum read.
meh read on Meg, directing negative attention from Meg towards others in the form of criticizing the town reads etcIn post 185, imaginality wrote:Here's what Mega said about me:
Hunch, no analysis.In post 163, MegAzumarill wrote:VOTE: imaginality
Their interactions with T3 give off a weird vibe to me.
Bolded is a complete misrepresentation of my point.In post 166, MegAzumarill wrote:
This feels like a highly speculative post thatIn post 74, imaginality wrote:
VOTE: T3In post 72, T3 wrote:Won't say.
This 'I have a read but I won't tell you it yet' seems anti-town. Seems like keeping it unspoken means you can wait to see whether others lean cyrus:town or cyrus:scum so you can then say that's what your read was too.essentially boils down to "T3 is being scummy if they are in the majority"
It doesn't feel like something a townie would push.
... And that's all.
So...
In post 180, HockeyFan wrote:
Wait, I just saw this, can you elaborate k tyIn post 169, T3 wrote:Meg town I think.
Where is this 'good analysis' you speak of? Choosing such a flimsy reason to call T3 town makes me wonder if you're trying to shift attention away from him. Are you buddies?In post 181, T3 wrote:Good analysis of imaginality and I don't think they are s/s.
Wanting more content from someone to lock in a read isn't the same as moving off them. My interactions with NM are also just trying to get a read on him which I'm finding hard to do.first post is a continuation of moving off Meg for meh reasons, and a decently strong push on zyla likely comes from wolf imaginality if a wolf partner has chances of dying
On Meg's post:
Meg putting Arc and Zyla at the bottom of his list could mean he's partnered with them since I don't think he's able to drive an elimination so it's more likely intended to throw us off if he flips scum.
On Zyla:
Why do you read her as town? What am I missing in my case on her?"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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This sentence in the above:
"My interactions with NM are also just trying to get a read on him which I'm finding hard to do."
Was in response to:
"Why does Imaginality interact with NM so much?"
Your other points on me seem based on assuming I'm scum and looking for interactions, so I don't feel like I need to comment on those since I know the premise is wrong. Whereas the above points are more about me directly."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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That seems pretty superficial of you contrasted with your other reads. I could see that post coming from town Zyla or scum Zyla. In isolation it reads town but there's the context of her other posts to consider.In post 333, goats wrote:
zyla is town for this post don't need anything else tbhIn post 140, Zyla wrote:I'm not so sure about Arc tbh, some of her confusion about the setup seems almost put on to me"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Ugh, now I'm second guessing myself. Zyla's latest reply to me seems reasonable. But then again she seems like someone who can make good posts and wouldn't panic under pressure.
I can see {Zyla, T3, Meg} as a possibility if Zyla is scum. Or {Zyla, Hockey, Meg} with the two of them deciding to both bus Meg now? I feel like with scum in the lead on the eliminations we have to look out for them bussing for cred.
{T3, Arc,?} is also looking plausible with how Arc subtly defends T3 D1 and their confusion D2 about the results which could be faked (as someone mentioned).
If Meg is town I think Hockey's vote here looks a little opportunist (Arc would you agree? You called hockey opportunist earlier, do you think the vote here is aaso?)
sInce it comes after goats and Zyla expressed suspicion of Meg without voting him (so Hockey already knew there's some buy in for his vote).
I feel like scum targeted NM just so we'd be stuck with him since he's deadweight. Would love to be proven wrong."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Meg: your reason for suspecting ArcAngel seems to apply to T3 too (e.g. 269 and 272 both come before this post of yours), so why is T3 only null/townlean in your read? Whereas Arc gets called scummy for it?In post 276, MegAzumarill wrote: Null:
{T3, NM} T3 plays too chaotically for me to go through the headache of me figuring them out. After trying I'd put them as a townlean since they seem to be contributing positively. N_M has basically trolled the entire game but I figure that's par for the course and NAI.
{ Zyla, Arcangel} ArcAngel seems too be really confused about mechanics that have been clarified on more than one occasion, and they don't seem to be scumhunting very much. Zyla has only interacted with the Arc slot for most of the game and with cyrus. They also have chosen to disclude any game advancing content for most of their posts."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Come join me on a T3 wagon?In post 342, Zyla wrote:T3, any response to why Arc is scummy enough to override the night result?
As Hockey pointed out, you seemed to be pretty interested in mechanics day 1, but now you seem to be going against them"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Just to confirm, "fallen" means your read on her has shifted scumwards?In post 361, goats wrote:t3 is probably town, Arc has fallen decently sharply in my reads"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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I was waiting for Kop to post, probably others are too?In post 371, goats wrote:why do we not have a hammer yet literally no one of posting
On others:
I actually see Arc's point a bit, in the Arc-Hockey stoush. Not about omgus being a town tell, but I do have a sense that Hockey might be looking for convenient reads. I need to do a decent reread on this though, I don't think he should be today's elim.
It's quite possible Arc-Hockey are both scum, mind you. And that their current cross voting is an act.
Zyla, I feel I have a good case there but it's not gained any traction. Same with T3.
I think there is one scum among {Arc, Zyla, NM} and two among {T3, Kop, Hockey}. Taking interactions into account I'd say {Arc, Hockey} and {T3, Zyla} both seem plausible pairings, with Kop as possible third scum in each case.
As mentioned I don't think Hockey is the right pick for today. So I think actually the logical vote today is:
VOTE: Kop"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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If we eliminate wrong here we lose so I suggest everyone who's not goats/Kop declare which way they'replanningto vote, before we actually do vote just in case we're missing something. Don't want to rush on and give scum a chance to quick hammer.
That said, I myself don't see scenarios where goat is scum and Meg-Kop town with the way they've played this game. I'm planning to vote Kop.
The way Hockey went down D2 was ridiculous but should help point to who Kop's partners are if he flips scum."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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I don't think anyone is voting anyone other than Kop today. I still want to hear from Kop before we eliminate him though.In post 427, goats wrote:
I am going to assume that you're trying to play out the day because it is lylo and you're hoping a towny happens to misvote at some point down the lineIn post 426, imaginality wrote:Kop: who do you think goats's scum buddies are?
Don't. It's lylo. The wolf is obvious. End it. If you're town, ending it is to your benefit."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Oh true, in my head I was thinking we're stuck in x-lo throughout now but you're right, a Kop scum flip means we get two more days minimum.In post 428, goats wrote:We have more than enough time to discussion tomorrow, it won't be lylo tomorrow."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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It's obviously obvious to you because assuming you're town, Kop is 100% guaranteed scum by the night result.In post 427, goats wrote:
I am going to assume that you're trying to play out the day because it is lylo and you're hoping a towny happens to misvote at some point down the lineIn post 426, imaginality wrote:Kop: who do you think goats's scum buddies are?
Don't. It's lylo. The wolf is obvious. End it. If you're town, ending it is to your benefit.
It's like... 85% Kop scum 15% you from my point of view. I've liked your play nearly all game but I am aware you're smart and smart scum can play the long game. And I really don't like being pressured to quick vote.
Also I had these reasons for drawing things out a little:
In post 430, goats wrote:
What do you need to hear from an outed wolf? Do you think you will get anything of value? Like, this statements contradict each otherIn post 429, imaginality wrote: I don't think anyone is voting anyone other than Kop today. I still want to hear from Kop before we eliminate him though.
If no one is voting anyone but Kop, what Kop going to do? Fight? No. He's not going to give more spew
I was waiting for two reasons:
1. I thought there was a chance Kop would try to counter argue and whatever he said could have helped give additional clues as to who his buddies are.
2. I thought there was a good chance his buddies would bus him hard and early so I was seeing if someone else would swoop in and vote him to try to get extra cred for it.
It doesn't look like the first is happening, but it was worth a shot. As for the second, just T3 leapt on it so far. So I'm intrigued that you're reading him as town. I think he's more likely to be one of the remaining scum (who I think were both on the cyrus and Hockey wagons - ie. two of {Zyla, Arc, NM, T3}.
I've played games where I rushed to vote what I felt was a sure thing in xlo and lost for town because of that. I don't want to do the same here.In post 430, goats wrote: And besides this, I thought people weren't going to vote Hockey yesterday
I was wrong on that, I guess, and he died
I'd rather us not lose like that"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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My take on all this is... Goats is scum.
I was thinking about this point during the night: Goats is definitely confident enough to have put up a scum-scum target N2, sacrificing Kop to protect their other scumbuddy from having to be targeted. (Note that, I believe, this implies their other scumbuddy is T3 or Zyla.)
And looking at the targets this morning, goats-scum still makes sense to me. There was a 1/6 chance of me returning a guilty, so the guilty-guilty scenario (which would likely have seen me elimmed then goat the next day) was pretty unlikely. Whereas the 1/3 chance of goats getting a random inno would look great for them being able to coast to endgame.
Meanwhile in the 1/2 chance of a goats guilty, me inno result, I think goats is so townread they could argue away a guilty on them as being a random guilty. If that had been the result, they'd also have to call me conftown but they'd be okay with that since I've only townread them all game. They'd probably see me as likely to vote anyone else ahead of them in any x-lo 1v1 scenario.
In this goats-scum scenario, think if Zyla or T3 were targeted (whichever is scum) and returned a guilty they'd be under a lot of pressure. And I think they didn't want to target whoever is town among those two because they need to keep that person as a good mis-elim since they can only mis-elim one of Arc-NM at most. And there'd be a 5/6 chance of an inno on that person.
Ultimately, I just have a strong hunch that scum this game is being smart and bussing Kop in a town-scum target pairing seems too obvious. (while hoping to save Kop with an inno would be dumb.)
Going with a scum-scum pairing, that's sneaky.
Okay, so I'm making a hard case pushing for goats here. What if I'm wrong about goats? In that case, while T3 and Zyla is possible as a pairing, I don't think Zyla votes T3 today or gives me townpoints. And in that scenario, {Arc, NM} are town and I'd think scum try harder to get one of the two town innos (Arc and NM) mis-eliminated earlier, and also likely target them rather than goats and me.
So if I'm wrong about goats being scum, I am pretty sure it's one of {Zyla, T3} and one of {Arc, NM}."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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As I mentioned this attempt to rush the day is bad, like, even aside from the points I made yesterday, for the sake of argument if Kop was 100% known scum you could still use some time to dig into whoever you saw as his potential scumbuddies.In post 407, goats wrote:I was going to instant vote this anyways, actually smart of wolves to put both of us in the checks, but there is now a guarantee of 1 wolf between myself and Kop even without the vote. I will case every single wolf in this game, as I have been, if any townies have doubt, but how this day realistically should play out is simply hammering Kop as soon as what... 4 people show up into thread?
Projection.In post 412, goats wrote:At least... this... ridiculous read is pretty towny cause every wolf is ready to bus Kop cause LMAO
In post 411, goats wrote:
are you actually town reading Kop? Are you really? Have you read his posts? Have you read his predecessors posts?In post 410, T3 wrote:Was this literally just done to troll me by doing my top 2 townreads
The bolded seems like something town wouldn't say, my gut says this is more likely coming from scum trying to keep town onside.In post 434, goats wrote:
if you're town, Imaginality, I'll re-consider you tomorrow
I obviously dislike the Hockey wagon, butI also believe that wolves would be more interested in bussing Kop than to stack 3 people onto Hockey
I'll think about it
But I'm alright proceeding this with a NM, maybe Arc, elim. I'd need to consider Zyla, I haven't read their progression on the Hocket vote, and I disliked their lack of engagement with what I cased before
The italicised part is more projection.
The rest of this post is literally calling everyone scum but T3.
Scum goats who knows they're super hard to eliminate and who holds quite a bit of sway in the discussions, has reason to locktown you if you're their buddy. I don't think scum can risk their buddy getting eliminated now they're down to 2.In post 433, T3 wrote:Scum goats has no reason to locktown me so early.
This is an extremely weak reason for a town read.In post 435, goats wrote:I consider this post a town slip btw
"Oh wait it's elo"
So I'm still town reading T3
More on this tomorrow (NZ time).In post 452, goats wrote:my strongest wolf read is still imaginality
I'm going to back myself with this goats-T3 read. This feels like the last game I was in (Owner's Market Blitz) - that game the watcher guilty smelt fake. This time the 'only one scum in {goats, Kop} assumption' smells fake.
VOTE: goats"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Some brief points from my goats iso:
#127 interesting the first time goats starts expressing suspicion of me is when I'm pressing T3 on something
#241-242 says maybe they should rescind their townread on T3 then 'eh let me think about it', could be trying to walk the line of not getting tied to T3 while also not giving town reasons to wagon T3
#253 calls my posts towny
#313 is trying to tie me to Meg which makes sense if they were already planning to bus Meg
#316 could be trying to tie me to NM (if goats is scum and T3 isn't scum, NM is the likeliest other scummbuddy for goats)
#361 calls T3 prob town
#408 this reads a tad exaggerated for effect, also reinforces my thought above that if it's not goats-T3 it's goats-NM
#411 criticism of T3 here looks like distancing
#419 I ask T3 a question but goats jumps in and answers for him
Overall I think this fits with my theory. I wasn't expecting to find anything super damning because goats is a good player, but there is enough here for me to feel I'm on the right track."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Right back at you. Super strong wolf play and I was definitely fooled into reading you as town earlier.In post 470, goats wrote:Btw imaginality you're probably who played the best, if a wolf, out of anyone else in this game
unfortunately my slot randed town though
But come on. Acting like this is a foregone conclusion might win you rhetoric points, but it's just an attempt to get town to fall along with you. Stay cool and hope to ride through with your towny aura.
For all your seeming pro-town play making the right sorts of posts and noises, though, cyrus got eliminated and Hockey got eliminated. You weren't on those wagons but neither was I and you think I'm scum so clearly that's not proof of anything.
That leaves Kop where you piled in early and tried (and pretty much succeeded) to cut off the day without good town play or scum bussing? And it's not like I was trying to get someone else eliminated, I'd already said I'd be voting Kop.
Your speculations about who my buddy is will be useful to review when you flip scum so thanks for those.
@others what do you think of my reasoning for why goats is scum?
Saying this now: If I get elimmed, when I flip town, please reread my points and don't let goats continue to have an easy ride."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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"Target someone else and I'll give you an easier ride."In post 483, goats wrote:I can explain why pretty much everything else you said is wrong but I'm getting bored now. Suffice to say, you're fully in the wrong, and you're not going to convince anyone. If you don't want to die you can present an actually reasonable solve
No, thanks. Happy with this right here."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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Dome?In post 478, goats wrote:ftr I find the willingness to dome both from T3 and Zyla towny"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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- Location: Christchurch, NZ
Pretty sure other people than Kop were allowed to talk yesterday. Seeing who did and didn't comment on him (or others) and how would have given us more info for today.In post 481, goats wrote:"As I mentioned this attempt to rush the day is bad, like, even aside from the points I made yesterday, for the sake of argument if Kop was 100% known scum you could still use some time to dig into whoever you saw as his potential scumbuddies."
Honestly, this point is kinda a fucking joke too btw. If you are town and expecting that Kop was gonna give anything useful, you're so far off the mark I don't know what to tell you. But hey like I said if you're a wolf then okay"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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imaginality he/theyRestricted Towniehe/they
- Restricted Townie
- Restricted Townie
- Posts: 3377
- Joined: May 29, 2008
- Pronoun: he/they
- Location: Christchurch, NZ
Careful, your famed "90% of the productive discussion" score might take a hit.In post 487, goats wrote:okay, well I'm probably just gonna not move my vote and maybe pop in eventually until you get limd
This post right here speaks to why goats was happy to go against me today (if I'd been the random result and we'd both returned guilty). Just so sure they can ride on their carefully established townread status to win any 1v1s they need to.
Also note how they've quickly made it me vs them once I made my case on them (after first expressing suspicion of me but not voting me, a classic way for scum to test the water before committing to a push). They could have looked for other possible scum pairings - but would rather focus on taking me out because I'm the only one who is calling them out as scum."holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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imaginality he/theyRestricted Towniehe/they
- Restricted Townie
- Restricted Townie
- Posts: 3377
- Joined: May 29, 2008
- Pronoun: he/they
- Location: Christchurch, NZ
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imaginality he/theyRestricted Towniehe/they
- Restricted Townie
- Restricted Townie
- Posts: 3377
- Joined: May 29, 2008
- Pronoun: he/they
- Location: Christchurch, NZ
Outed? I voted esooa because I figured out your playerslot is scum, in what world does that vote make me outed scum?In post 494, goats wrote:i have read 0 of this game but apparently imaginality is outed so im just going to vote them until they die
you can sheep this vote and share the glory or refuse to sheep it and flounder in ignoble shame
If you were town you'd consider the possibility I might be wrong town, but you're not. Because you know you're scum.
How does this align with esooa pretty much calling both Arc and NM scumbuddies to me? If Arc and/or NM join your crusade against me you're not going to try to get them miseliminated tomorrow even when I flip town? Yeah, right.In post 495, goats wrote:everyone who sheeps me is lock town everyone who disagrees is lock scum
pick your side carefully!!!
It's 11am Thursday here, I'm at work...
"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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imaginality he/theyRestricted Towniehe/they
- Restricted Townie
- Restricted Townie
- Posts: 3377
- Joined: May 29, 2008
- Pronoun: he/they
- Location: Christchurch, NZ
It's everyone else not posting that's the issue here. Only Arc has commented and even that was just to ask NM what he thought. We really need to hear from the others.
"holy shit this entire time i thought imaginalitys profile was a purple seahorse" - camelCasedSnivy-
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imaginality he/theyRestricted Towniehe/they
- Restricted Townie
- Restricted Townie
- Posts: 3377
- Joined: May 29, 2008
- Pronoun: he/they
- Location: Christchurch, NZ