Open 815: Forest Fire Redux [Endgame]

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata is pleased to be here! Nakata normally spends more time talking to cats than to trees, but it seems that Nakata has had a new development in his language skills.

Nakata thinks that eliminating off-wagon is probably best, but Nakata is also aware that there can be strong incentive to bus in this setup due to the nightkills not being flipped and therefore PoE not narrowing so much.

Nakata wouldn’t mind eliminating skitter, but Nakata also thinks that if Nakata can TR skitter then there’s no reason not to eliminate Noraa first. Nakata will catch up soon!

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata has the impression from the first 4 pages that all of (Infinity 324, Lukewarm, Hectic) are town and that maybe prism is town too

Nakata also thinks his predecessors posts seem towny, but is aware that this will probably not be convincing to the rest of you

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that Child of Fairies looks quite good in ISO, and Nakata particularly liked the way that they approached the flipped scumslot (suggesting willingness to hammer early on in the game where a back-pedal on that would have looked really awful). Nakata isn’t that smart, but Nakata thinks that if you’re going to bus a buddy in this setup, you don’t half-ass it because that’s a losing strategy. Nakata thinks scum are far more likely to hardbus or to try to defend their buddy.

Nakata thinks that T3 and fidget don’t have very good entrances, but Nakata already gets the sense that votes were hovering around T3’s head and that if, as Nakata’s read through continues, there’s an attempt from Johnny or especially fidget/skitter to end up on T3 as a compromise option, that it probably makes T3 town. Plus Nakata wants to give a little bonus towncred to T3 for being on the hem!wagon.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that Infinity 324 is obvtown bordering on IC levels by page 7.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata feels sufficiently comfortable with this as of 177. Nakata apologises if skitter is town but Nakata thinks that Fidget’s posts were not very towny. Nakata particularly dislikes in the linked post that Fidget is keen to discredit Hectic’s TRs (of which Nakata knows one was correct, and agreed strongly with two more, lightly with the final one). If said reads are correct, Nakata thinks it would make the game really hard for scum, and Nakata knows that when he rolls scum he will try to sabotage correct TRs from a town player if they make the PoE too tight for scum.

[Satoru Nakata]

VOTE: skitter30

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata also dislikes 198 and feels that it is trying to egg on a conflict between Prism and Hectic, who Nakata is aware have strong scumranges (and therefore Nakata is less confident that they’re both town than in his TRs on Infinity/Lukewarm) but who Nakata nonetheless thinks are more likely town than scum.

Nakata would rank the players thusly as of page 10:

Infinity 324
Lukewarm

Hectic
Noraa

Prism

T3

skitter30

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata is still reading up and is aware that he is perhaps confirmation biased. However Nakata mostly thinks that a number of players have towntold and that your predecessor was not very towny, plus you were off the D1 wagon which Nakata has seen you do as scum before when believing that your buddy is salvageable. Nakata needs to have more context, but given that you won’t be actually removed from the game if town, Nakata is mostly happy to go for what seems like the easy win and to then let out dictate the lim tomorrow if Nakata is wrong on you. Nakata doesn’t consider himself a premiere town player by any means, but Nakata feels that Occam’s razor is that you’re scum.

[Satoru Nakata]

Also i think trying to read this slot ok fidget who isnt here vs me who is is a cop-out

Nakata is not convinced that this is a post made in good faith given that we are both aware that skitter30 is a very hard read. Nakata thinks that reading a player easier to read occupying the same slot makes a lot of sense, and thinks that skitter30 having a problem with this may be something required by alignment.

[Satoru Nakata]

Ans why settle on noraa, like why is she your second choice

Nakata thought this was already clear from when Nakata said that scum are likely either avoiding he D1 wagon or hard bussing. Nakata’s prime candidates for hard bussing would be Prism and/or Hectic from looking at the EoD wagon, but Nakata thinks those slots basically seem town, although Nakata has some degree of paranoia about Prism.

Given those two slots as town, there are only 3 living slots not on the hem!wagon on D1. I know my own alignment, and that leaves you and Noraa. Nakata didn’t like Child of Faries’ third post, so Nakata ISO’d them and then started to feel like they are a friend of the trees. Therefore by PoE of those off the D1 wagon on scum, and combined with Nakata’s impressions of who is town, Nakata is left with the conclusion that you’re likely scum.

[Satoru Nakata]

I would not have thought my buddy was salvageavle and if i did i would not have tried to push hectic, which wasnt really viable (no matter what lukewarm thinjs)

Defending my buddy via pushing someone who most likelu isnt going to get flipped somewhat defeats the purpose in the narrative you're proposing, no?

And if i ger hectic tomorrow i dont mind so much :shrug: but yeah i'm a little annoyed

Nakata will bear this in mind as he continues catching up. Nakata is willing to listen to skitter30 about Hectic, but Nakata fears that he will struggle to do so today while skitter30’s alignment is unconfirmed to him.

Nakata thinks that his posts are clearly those of an alt and that it’s not an unreasonable assumption to think that skittwr30 should realise that we have history together based on his comment in his first post on how if he’s able to get to a TR on her he’d rather spare her and lim Noraa first.

Nakata hopes that skitter30’s meeting goes well and apologises if this is an unpleasant situation for her to be in regarding the game.

[Satoru Nakata]

Hello friend Infinity 324. How would you feel about hammering right now?

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that overthinking, not fear, is the mindkiller, and that early hammers are good more often than people realise.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata admits that he is a little bit influenced by the desire to rep in, vote scum, and get scum hammered to win the game in under 20 posts.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata would like to know if friend Infinity 324 would vote skitter30 if Nakata removes his own vote and agrees not to hammer?

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata is a friend of trees and cats and very trustworthy! Friend Infinity 324 should place her trust in Nakata because the world is a more beautiful place when friends trust each other. Nakata will even promise not to hammer for at least a day.

[Satoru Nakata]

like luke literally was like “we can counterwagon!” and infinity was like eh he could be but not as scummy as x and y

two off the top of my head that don’t tr

and then there goes t3 who’s unsure

Ok so maybe a bettee phrase would have been: despite the lack of the abundance of townreads hectic is mysteriously resistant to getting wagoned even tho there are people who profess to not townreading him

If Nakata understands this post correctly (and Nakata is not very bright, so Nakata may be confused) then skitter30 is suggesting that Hectic is scummy due to resistance of people to voting him? But given that his buddy was dead by this point, Nakata fails to see why this is more likely to make him scum, as opposed to just... people not wanting to vote there. Nakata would be interested for skitter30 to explain this in particular when she returns, if Nakata hasn’t managed to convince friend Infinity 324, or prism or Noraa to drop the hammer by then.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata really feels that this game is easy for once and that other players are making in unnecessarily difficult for themselves. Nakata encourages following your heart, even if it leads to you to killing Johnny Walker or becoming lost in a forest. Nakata thinks becoming lost in a forest would be very on brand for this game, too.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata just looked at Noraa’s ISO and thinks some of the posts there are vaguely unethical in that they would be very unpleasant things to lie about if she were scum angling for a TR and saying them cynically. Nakata therefore also finds them distasteful for Noraa!town to say because they are posts Nakata hopes she wouldn’t make as scum.

Nakata thinks she is probably town who is just wrong on skitter30.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that the idea of a wagon going through “too easily” in a game where only one scum remains is a dubious proposition.

Nakata disagrees that skitter30’s posting doesn’t feel survivalists and thinks that skitter30!town would have engaged with Nakata in a less confrontational way if skitter30 were town. Nakata thinks that skitter30 blasting Nakata for his initial posts is something more likely to come from scum!skitter30 who needs to survive and therefore doesn’t care very much about why Nakata thinks the way he does because she doesn’t have the luxury, whereas Nakata thinks that town!skitter30 would have tried to get inside Nakata’s head more before evaluating whether she really thought Nakata’s initial takes were bad or not.

[Satoru Nakata]

very bright, so Nakata may be confused) then skitter30 is suggesting that Hectic is scummy due to resistance of people to voting him

No, that's not the crux of the argument, i was saying that if i wanted to save my buddy trying to flip someone who's ublikely to get flipped isnt very gelpful

I actualky havent argued for the resistance being ai in either direction

Nakata appreciates the clarification. However, Nakata also thinks that skitter30 may have simply misread the gamestate. Nakata is aware that this is uncommon for skitter30, but is also aware that it does happen.

Nakata wonders if skitter30 didn’t feel that there were many other options to push and if she perceived Hectic as more pushable than he was. Nakata is also a little perplexed that skitter30 doesn’t seem to have re-evaluated after the person she supposedly thought was town flipped scum, but admittedly Nakata has only skimmed her ISO and may be missing something.

[Satoru Nakata]

If Nakata is Prism’s new surrogate, Nakata would like to strongly suggest that Prism drop the YOLO hammer that Nakata feels Prism knows deep inside that she wants to drop, because Nakata still has hopes of winning the game before making 30 posts.

Nakata also thinks dialoguing with a confirmed!town skitter30 will be much more productive than with this skitter30, and Nakata has sufficient concerns that he will never be comfortable with her slot endgaming anyway.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata is very happy to be here! Nakata likes this playerlist a lot and was sad that Nakata wasn’t able to sign up when it was originally filling. Nakata feels like all players are fortunate that the rep ins have been high quality (Nakata is referring to those rep ins other than himself, of course!)

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata needs to go now but he’s noting mostly for his own convenience that he’s on page 15 in his catch up.

Nakata hopes everyone has a wonderful day, and encourages anyone who comes across a cat to say hello, they appreciate it.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata would like to extend his apologies to friend skitter30. As Nakata mentioned, he is not the sharpest mind and sometimes he makes mistakes. Nakata understands if skitter30 is sceptical of him, because he admittedly would do exactly this if he were scum. Nakata doesn't know if him saying this helps at all or if it makes things worse. Nakata does think he might have been slightly less likely to pursue skitter30 so openly if he were scum and knew that skitter30 would flip town, though.

Nakata also believes that this skitter30!flip strongly implies that scum did bus on D1. He still thinks that the Noraa slot is probably town, but is aware that he needs to do his due diligence. Nakata would now very much like to listen to skitter30's reasons to be suspect of Hectic, and Nakata also feels more uncomfortable with Prism. However, Nakata's gut instinct is still that T3 seemed like the 'worst' slot from D1 if skitter30 was town, and would like to rule out that solution being both simple and correct before letting paranoia take over too much on Prism or Hectic.

Nakata stills think Infinity 324 is very town, and that Lukewarm is strongly town. Nakata wants to re-examine both to be sure he's not trusting too much in a lazy tone read, but that the actions of both and how they've engaged in the thread are also towny. Nakata is willing to sheep skitter30 today, even if it's on him, if skitter30 does not feel she will be able to shake her concerns by the end of the day and if skitter30 is likely to want Nakata dead tomorrow, where said suspicion would likely be losing.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata disagrees that skitter30’s posting doesn’t feel survivalists and thinks that skitter30!town would have engaged with Nakata in a less confrontational way if skitter30 were town.

Sorry i shouldnt be so confrontational, i apologize

Nakata wanted to address that an apology is and was entirely unnecessary. Nakata wasn't upset by skitter30's approach to him, he just thought it was very scum!indicative for her, because Nakata's more typical experiences with skitter30 have involved her trying to sort slots that are maybe unclear to her through prodding them for motivations rather than what Nakata felt was a stronger response in this game than the typical to him. Nakata also felt skitter30 did feel very survivalistic and couldn't tell why should would present as strongly in that sense if she were town.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks that the most likely scum at this point is T3. Nakata is not impressed with his ISO now that he knows skitter30 is town. Nakata would appreciate Lukewarm weighing in as he believes lukewarm is familiar with T3, and Nakata has seen T3 prove to be tasty limbait in other games. If Lukewarm thinks T3 is town, Nakata would like to hear the reasons why.

[Satoru Nakata]

VOTE: T3

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata still needs to read the relevant part of the game that Lukewarm is talking about when he says that T3 is town, but Nakata is unconvinced by the arguments being made — Nakata thinks that if T3 is the final scum, he wouldn’t necessarily want the additional attention on him that comes with a hammer, especially not if it looks like his partner is liable to be flipped later anyway. Nakata acknowledges that it might have given Johnny or a replacement for Johnny more time to get their teeth into the game, but if the slot looked significantly less towny than the rest (which it would have done, probably, given hem’s inability to stave off elimination) then hammering would just have sunk T3 and left a doomed Johnny to be PoE’d.

While T3 may not *like* being endgame scum, Nakata thinks that this game he may have been forced into that role due to not knowing if/when Johnny would turn up or redeem his slot at all. Therefore T3 wouldn’t want to compromise himself via hammering.

But like Nakata says, he still needs to read up. Nakata will try to find the posts he thought that Noraa made that he hopes she wouldn’t make as scum later. Maybe now, but Nakata is low on time!

[Satoru Nakata]

Noraa you got better! No matter your alignment. I like this noraa

Thank you that means a lot to me. I recently was actually reading through some of my past games. I recently met a very toxic player(we are not naming names and I am not trying to attack anyone everyone goes through phases and I understand) but it really struck deep realizing what my play had evolved into. I looked through some past games. Prism might've reminded me of cabd because that was a game that I recently read actually. Reading that game hurt my soul. It hurt so bad realizing how bad my play was and just how terrible I could be. Ok this is a discussion for a different place but this does mean a lot to me. I'd like to think my play is no longer a toxic shitfest of the most useless garbage. AHH ok I need to stop. I kept doing this recently. but this means a lot. it really really does.

Nakata thought this post rung as very emotionally honest and thinks it would be very distasteful for Noraa to be using it to try to manipulate people into TRing her here. However, Nakata admits he doesn’t know Noraa that well or if she would share his opinion about this, and maybe Nakata is weighting it too heavily, especially as he supposes that Noraa isn’t actually pointing to this post or her different attitude here and trying to use that to get townreads from people.

Okay, Nakata must leave. Nakata will return later, tree friends!

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata has a few thoughts. Firstly, Nakata is glad that he was playing with people with good reads! Nakata is more or less glad that he had his PoE correct, but Nakata is prone to paranoia and can’t guarantee he wouldn’t have ended up paranoia-voting Hectic or Prism tomorrow if he’d got his T3 flip. So Nakata is glad that despite being wrong on friend skitter30 he didn’t get in the way of town too much.

Secondly, Nakata thinks that friend Noraa misplayed here a bit, and that the main lesson she should consider is not rocking the boat when solo-scumming in a tricky list. Nakata is also not very good at scum but thinks this is more due to poor execution on his part than lack of understanding of what should be done. Nakata thinks that the way for Noraa to win was probably to go after Nakata today for being wrong on skitter30, and then to go for either T3 or Hectic tomorrow depending on skitter30’s paranoia there. Nakata thinks it was probably a mistake to try to go after the widely townread friend Lukewarm which stood out in a bad way from the rest of the list. Solo scum want to blend in if possible.

Nakata stands by displays of emotion such as that put on by friend Noraa as distasteful in that they force scum to go to unpleasant lengths to stand a chance when exhibited in an alignment indicative fashion. Nakata acknowledges that the display here was genuine and not linked to Noraa trying to get TR, otherwise Nakata would be severely displeased with Noraa. However, Nakata thinks it safer to try to save such posts for postgame or other forums outside of the game to avoid potential spillover.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata would also like to thank lord Murdercat for moderating, and to generally thank his fellow players for being a pleasant bunch!

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata thinks friend Noraa could also have gone after T3 potentially, and that Nakata would have been a softer target D4 if he’d been loudly wrong on 2 people and if the rest of the thread was very cognisant of scum!Nakata being only one more miselim from winning, potentially.

Nakata isn’t sure how townread he really was this game, and Nakata suspects that the advice he gave Noraa would be good generally for future games scum!Noraa finds herself in, where even if Nakata’s idiosyncrasies were being townread this game, they might have been offputting (even quite severely) with an alternative playerlist.

Nakata was once again impressed by friend Prism.

[Satoru Nakata]

Nakata also saw friend Hectic asking if we were acquianted: we are indeed. Nakata is acquianted to greater or lesser with everyone who was playing this day phase!

Nakata would also like to pedit this post by saying he appreciates friend Lukewarm’s kind words! Nakata also hopes to see Lukewarm in more games as time goes on!