Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: osuka

[InsidiousLemons]

pretty sure they were making a joke about their avatar. still kind of weird to edit someone else's post for jokes tho

[InsidiousLemons]

RVS Breaker: My vote was serious. Discuss.

fuck you got me

claim cult leader

it was a good effort umlaut but we're sunk

[InsidiousLemons]

RVS Breaker: My vote was serious. Discuss.

No it wasn't. At least not beyond the trivial "all votes are to some extent serious" sense of the phrase. If I'm wrong and you have a real reason you're welcome to share it instead of inviting us to play 20 Questions.

They read their Role PM but didn't confirm it until later.

i can confirm this is true. which of the following situations do you think is most probable:

1. i am a cultist who read my role PM, considered replacing out, and then decided to confirm
   
2. i am a VT who read my role PM, considered replacing out, and then decided to confirm
   
3. i am a TPR who read my role PM, considered replacing out, and then decided to confirm
   
4. regardless of what i rolled, i read my role PM and either forgot to or didn't have time to confirm it right away

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: osuka

what the fuck did I DO?
VOTE: lemons

roll scum twice in a row

maybe you're going for the hat trick

[InsidiousLemons]

hmm, i guess i could see that. but all the cult role PMs look pretty self-explanatory to me. don't you think i'd know what a roleblocker and rolecop do by now? aren't those just as common (if not moreso) as any of the TPRs? and given that conversion to the cult is the driving mechanic in this game, i wouldn't expect that anyone but a complete beginner would be confused about the role of the leader either. what sorts of confusion are you imagining?

[InsidiousLemons]

Also what are we playing here, Among Us? "Don't want this alignment. YEET."

this was kind of the subtext of 32 because i couldn't fully believe you'd actually suggest i would replace out based on what i rolled, especially not in an open

[InsidiousLemons]

i think they're asking how flea knows that time passed between reading and confirming my role PM

p-edit whoa okay there buddy i'm at fucking E-1 on page 2. why does flea being town make me cult?

[InsidiousLemons]

Also what are we playing here, Among Us? "Don't want this alignment. YEET."

this was kind of the subtext of 32 because i couldn't fully believe you'd actually suggest i would replace out based on what i rolled, especially not in an open

Knew something was bugging me, now I'm not distracted with CyberpunkRED and can go back to 1% braining this instead of 0.01%ing this, what on earth did I say that even implied a replace out?

the only reasoning i've ever seen for pushing someone who didn't pick up their role PM is that they must have rolled scum and decided to replace out. i wanted to see if this was the same track you were following. it wasn't, and your approach was novel, but not really any more compelling. i'll ask again what confusion you think could arise from receiving a cultist PR PM that couldn't arise from a similar town PM. or are you suggesting that i /inned to a cult game and then had to confirm what the cult leader does?

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: Flea

[InsidiousLemons]

I get why y'all would find Flea's case unconvincing but I don't see how it's scummy at all.

i didn't think the case itself was scummy, mostly i wanted to put pressure on flea so he'd answer me about how he thought i could've gotten confused. which is why this sheep and subsequent retraction stands out so much to me:

VOTE: Flea
Strange fakesolve tbh

This just feels like a low-effort consensus vote.

VOTE: T3

Why "strange" eg as opposed to scummy?

It created discussion but idk if that was intentional.

Also raya is town.
UNVOTE: Flea
I guess a push like that doesn't make sense from scuflea but we shouldn't dismiss it.

it's early, but this is highly unusual for the town!T3 whom i've played with before. i rarely see him back down this easily or immediately, and he tends not to sheep other players so readily and for such little reason. last game i played with him, someone mentioned opportunism as one of T3's scumtells, so i'll be on the lookout for more of this.

Agreeing with Umlaut. It's such a weird take as scum. I feel like this kind of response could have been predicted so why even try pushing that

if you think you can predict how someone will react to something, isn't it usually best to confirm your suspicions? town doesn't care about looking like they made a scummy push (at least not unless they're in real danger of becoming a miselim), so as a way to start discussion rolling it's not a bad idea. in my experience, standing back with your hands on your hips rather than answering questions as flea does in 77 can sometimes come from scum, but he doesn't seem to have really believed much in his push and was more using it as a reaction test. considering it got us out of RVS unprecedentedly early, which is usually not something scum actively tries to do, i'm comfortable with a slight townlean here.

VOTE: T3

flea, what is it from osuka that gives you a slight townlean? i find him incredibly difficult to read especially so early in the game, so i'm curious what you're seeing here, no matter how insubstantial.

[InsidiousLemons]

i didn't think the case itself was scummy, mostly i wanted to put pressure on flea so

fae'd

answer me about how

fae

thought i could've gotten confused. which is why this sheep and subsequent retraction stands out so much to me:

ftfy

It's pride/wrath month, I am cranky, I am not sorry.

---

I still want to know why you jumped to replacement in every solution and persistently after.

mea culpa! thank you for the correction, happy pride month!

i've already explained why replacement was on my mind. it's the only reasoning i've ever seen anyone use for the type of push you made. and where did i persist on replacement? 40 was an explanation of the assumption, not me claiming i didn't believe you

[InsidiousLemons]

an explanation of the line of questioning, rather.

[InsidiousLemons]

T3, i just had a peek at 2061 and skitter replaced out before ever posting. is it possible you meant to reference another game? your play there doesn't seem to match this one at all.

[InsidiousLemons]

your response to being questioned on your vote here:

VOTE: Flea
Strange fakesolve tbh

This just feels like a low-effort consensus vote.

VOTE: T3

Why "strange" eg as opposed to scummy?

It created discussion but idk if that was intentional.

Also raya is town.
UNVOTE: Flea
I guess a push like that doesn't make sense from scuflea but we shouldn't dismiss it.

and your response to being questioned on your vote in 2059:

GrandpaMo and Ahri are and were my top scumreads for valid reasons.
Anyways, the way interactions are going the scumteams seem to be
me/Irish
Mo/Ahri
and JV and Fizz are very likely town.
I am unwilling to vote Irish here because Irish isn't scummy enough. If Irish flips scum at some point then yes. I will accept scumreads and accept the fact that my read was wrong. But I have't seen anything convincing enough for me to vote Irish over the bad and scummy votes against Irish.

i don't really see these as at all comparable. perhaps the push on you in that game was for "opportunism" for voting ahri, as it is for voting flea here, but you refused to back down from that vote and explained your reasoning well. i recognize that the gamestate is much less developed here, but this feels like a disingenuous comparison to make. your defense is nothing more than "well i've been called out for opportunism as town before", with no regard for the surrounding circumstances.

[InsidiousLemons]

Who's scum rn off the top of your head if not Flea?

^

[InsidiousLemons]

we're wasting time. enchant, i've confirmed that flea's information is correct. the push they've made has been responded to. there's no secret "role PM receipt status cop". what is the purpose of this line of questioning?

[InsidiousLemons]

Lemons strikes me as intense so far

it's my experience that lemons just generally puts way too much effort into games

'tis my curse

[InsidiousLemons]

Maruchan has still only posted once to ego the thread.

we should policy her

[InsidiousLemons]

Would cult risk to softbus leader, like mafia do? I think yes. That's reason why i suspect Lemons who you already townread

you're the second person to call this a softbus and i'm curious as to why you think that.

If Flea is town, I could see Lemons being cult... but if Flea is cult, I don't believe Lemons is likely to be a buddy, as that is a wild Day 1 soft-bus to start the game with. Some of their play I see as downplaying Flea's theory aggressively.

same question to you, major -- what makes flea's accusation/rvs breaker so wild?

Assuming Setup A,

why do you assume this? the analyses you make of each potential setup aren't observations that can be generalized to templates B and C. also, it's funny that you accuse enchant of setup fishing, then turn around and ask for cop crumbs.

[InsidiousLemons]

Sorry, but believing jailkeeper or rolestopper can stop convert is..

Uuuh. How good are docs and jailkeepers? Unless we have unrecruitable townies, it's safe to assume cult always convert someone, and game will turn in chaos mess on day 2 already.

but... they

can

stop a conversion. what are you saying??

Jailkeeper

Open 814: CultD3

Welcome, [Player Name]! You are a

Jailkeeper

, and aligned with

The Town

.

Abilities:
~ Each night, you may jail a player in the game, simultaneously protecting them from recruitment and roleblocking them.

Victory Condition:
~ You, and the

Town

win once

all threats to the

Town

are eliminated, and at least one

Pro-Town

player is still alive.

Please confirm you have read your role-card by

submitting your role-name and alignment.

Rolestopper

Open 814: CultD3

Welcome, [Player Name]! You are a

Rolestopper

, and aligned with

The Town

.

Abilities:
~ Each night phase, you may target another player in the game to attempt to prevent all other night actions from affecting your target.

Victory Condition:
~ You, and the

Town

win once

all threats to the

Town

are eliminated, and at least one

Pro-Town

player is still alive.

Please confirm you have read your role-card by

submitting your role-name and alignment.

[InsidiousLemons]

After this talk i just realised.

Maybe it's not bad idea to reveal Unrecruitable townies right now, so they couldn't get CCed later by Cult when they have numbers (and they will have with high chance)?

While it denies power they have, they will not be counterclaimed (unless by cult PR/Cult Leader who is insane enough). It actually nets us with 2/6 chances to hit cult and 1/6 to find Cult Leader (from VT perspective).

What you think?

No™

[InsidiousLemons]

Lol did MM actually include the co-mod on his list of suspects? Can't believe I missed that, it's self-defensive "please yeet anyone but me" finger-pointing if ever I saw it.

it also indicates to me that "other people had done less than me" was a defensive, retroactive assumption that he then had to go back and look for reasons to believe, rather than something he had already observed and decided to point out after the fact. for someone who literally didn't even have a single vote on him, he had a pretty extreme reaction to getting pushed.

i'm comfortable with this.

VOTE: Major Minor

p-edit: i don't think i understand. do you mean you don't think it's likely those PRs will actually choose the right person to target in order to stop a conversion? that is probably true, but those PRs still have value in that they can prove with relative certainty that a particular player was not converted on a given night.

[InsidiousLemons]

same question to you, major -- what makes flea's accusation/rvs breaker so wild?

It just seems like doing that to a buddy is a high risk low reward play given this setup, and Flea seems competent/smart enough not to make it.

how is pushing a delayed role PM confirmation on page 1 high risk? i don't see how that play is any more likely to be a soft-bus than it is to be an attempt at distancing, and i don't think either of those possibilities would seem as likely (even from a neutral perspective) as flea just genuinely trying to get us out of RVS.

[InsidiousLemons]

also, it's funny that you accuse enchant of setup fishing, then turn around and ask for cop crumbs.

Cop should always crumb results. No brainer.
Addressing 1 out of 5 potential PRs is a lil specific, dont' ya think.

I can go through all the setup variations but it results in about the same for each just shuffled slightly.

if it's such a no brainer then why mention it?

and yes, addressing 1 out of 5 possible PRs

is

a little specific. so why do you only ask the cop to crumb, especially if it's the obvious play in your mind? shouldn't a tracker crumb their targets/results rather than claiming outright as well? shouldn't a jailkeeper or rolestopper?

[InsidiousLemons]

also: you're using we/us as personal pronouns, yes? or are you a hydra or something?

[InsidiousLemons]

enchant, why don't you think the cult leader would claim PR?

major, you quoted my post but didn't respond to it.

also,

can i request that we stop referring to anyone as MM?

there are two players with those initials and it will only cause confusion.

flea's 182 feels sort of like reactionary reasoning in response to getting called out for specifically focusing on the cop, but with how much fae seem to have thought all of this through (185), i don't think that focus is as indicative of role fishing as i may have thought. still, with so much of the discussion now centring around crumbs, it's going to be markedly more difficult for PRs to crumb targets/results and not get converted for it. i recognize i may be partly to blame for this, but we need to be on guard. i'm not sure that hunting for crumbs after a flip, especially given the fact that converted cultists will flip simply as "cultist", is going to be nearly as effective as flea is suggesting.

[InsidiousLemons]

same question to you, major -- what makes flea's accusation/rvs breaker so wild?

It just seems like doing that to a buddy is a high risk low reward play given this setup, and Flea seems competent/smart enough not to make it.

how is pushing a delayed role PM confirmation on page 1 high risk? i don't see how that play is any more likely to be a soft-bus than it is to be an attempt at distancing, and i don't think either of those possibilities would seem as likely (even from a neutral perspective) as flea just genuinely trying to get us out of RVS.

still waiting on a response to this @major. 230 isn't a bad post -- i too wonder why you would think it would count against you.

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: Raya

This is cult.

elaborate for me <3

random.org never lies

Unless bad luck.

what motivated you to make this post? this variety of openly bad voting doesn't even feel particularly scummy because i don't know what scum gains from it either. it's just weird. what is your strategy here?

[InsidiousLemons]

After some deliberation

VOTE: osuka

I'm pretty wary of

MM

Major Minor and could happily vote there after they tried to shade me hard for singling them out and then had to invent some less-active slots when called out on their accusation.

That being said, Osuka's 152 just feels very slimy and more likely to have been made in bad faith

--pedit lol Flea ref setup A

--pedit I totally hadn't twigged about the whole MM thing. Post updated.

so your case on me is 152? the post where i nudged you?

if the wiki ever needs an example of omgus, feel free to point here

to be fair 152 was a shitty push and calling mark's response to it omgus feels kinda disingenuous. you're twisting mark's words to make it sound like a logical inconsistency when it's quite obvious (at least to me) that he was pushing the question and the followup together as "all the slot has done", rather than just the followup. fwiw, i didn't think 101 was a very good post either, but the way major reacted to mark's push made me suspicious. 221 and 230 are improvements from what came before. do you have any thoughts on any of his responses?

[InsidiousLemons]

@osuka to clarify my last post, i'm asking for your opinions on major's responses both to the initial pressure and mark's followups.

From your description of your thought process above, you more had a "fuzzy" awareness that there were other slots that had contributed less, rather than specific slots in mind (please correct me if you think I'm misrepping here). That being the case, it feels scummy that you tried to shade me over singling you out, without actually confirming your suspicions first to see if I actually was.

but you

did

single out major. are the posts below not specific callouts of his behaviour? if i were the subject of these posts, i wouldn't feel the need to confirm my suspicions before defending myself.

Anyone else is ??? and needs to do something.

You could start by answering my post addressed to you!

Am lowkey sus of this slot - posts in the thread to refute criticism but doesn't add anything about the wider game or ask any new questions.

there's nothing wrong with following up on a question (in fact, it's actually towny), but when that is literally all the slot had done at that point it feels like hiding in plain sight

[InsidiousLemons]

@raya talk to me: why are you scumreading t3? because he hard lurks and only posts shit one liners? he does that every game

Normally the content in his one liners are better though. First post could have been an attempt to direct the conversation somewhere that some rolefishing could easily happen. The quick switch from voting Flea to it not being scummy but we still shouldn't dismiss it is jumpy. Saying the Enchant questioning was NAI when it definitely could be read more into. Saying you're town by meta when he doesn't even have town-meta on you. Saying Major chose a convenient wagon when in my opinion it wasn't convenient at all.

i'm inclined to agree with this. t3's posts this game have felt noticeably more jumpy and opportunistic this game than any of the games i've played with town!t3. would you not say so, osuka?

[InsidiousLemons]

okay, fine. how do you hope to advance towards a gamesolve with a vote that you randomized? it seems like the point you're trying to make is that attempting to scumhunt isn't any better than just randomly eliminating someone, which i disagree with. and either way, i don't think it's helpful to pointedly refuse to attempt to produce reads when presented with the valid observation that you've been "playing around the game" rather than actually playing the game.

p-edit @266

[InsidiousLemons]

Major gain wagon because of putting moderator and activity issue, have "oh, i don't want to die" and make "OH ENCHANT DOESN'T MAKE READS" while i have in ISO clear names, which persons elim i pretty fine with.

like, maybe it's just the language barrier, but i can't find a single post of yours that seems to indicate you want anyone in particular eliminated today. you don't seem to be pushing anyone with any degree of focus or conviction.

and what's definitely NOT the language barrier is the fact that you were voteparked on flea from RVS right up until you voted for raya, which is another random vote. you have not used your vote to actually apply pressure to anyone in this entire game so far. i would love if you could give us an overview of your reads up to this point.

p-edit jokes don't advance the game. the points i've made in this post still stand

[InsidiousLemons]

@major what do you make of enchant's little random vote charade

[InsidiousLemons]

theory: enchant is CL trying to soft unrecruitable

he has been hesitant to make any major pushes (possibly for fear of choosing wrong and sparking a counterwagon on himself), suggested a massclaim of unrecruitables early on and, not content to leave his softclaim at this, got super antsy to fullclaim despite a relatively low amount of heat in his direction. he was also the first person to suggest that a cult leader wouldn't claim PR, and may be hoping to ride his claim out until D2, at which point a miselim + successful conversion would make a CL elimination much less devastating to the cult (the game would be 5v2 at that point after the cult leader elim). i don't have any experience playing with him, but i kind of get the vibe that CL!enchant would be comfortable gambling on CC wifom -- his "unclaim" could suggest that he got more fearful of this when he saw that the initial reception of his claim was negative. it's a very risky gambit for a cult leader on D1, but the potential payoff would be enormous.

VOTE: Enchant

i'm at work right now so if i've missed something that makes this theory substantially less likely, i won't be able to respond to that fact for a few hours. for my money, enchant is either CL or unrecruitable

[InsidiousLemons]

if enchant flips cult here flea has massive partner equity

[InsidiousLemons]

i don't think we gain anything by holding out on a fullclaim any longer, yourself included. just tell us

[InsidiousLemons]

for the sake of certainty, i think it's worth it for everyone to declare outright whether they can or cannot cc, using umlaut's post above as a guide. as long as no one declares their full role (DON'T do this), i don't think there's any disadvantage, because scum already knows the full setup now. if we don't get a cc, enchant is town and scum knows one tpr (enchant). if we do get a cc, enchant is scum and scum knows one tpr (the counterclaimer).

i

cannot cc

, and i would have expected scum to claim either unrecruitable or VT in this situation. this is looking like a pretty bad position if no one counterclaims.

[InsidiousLemons]

hey folks, sorry for the inactivity. those who have played with me before know i'm usually a bit more engaged than this, but i've been crazy busy irl with gearing up for a performance and trying to find housing in a new city. going to try and reread today and hopefully offer some insight. hang tight!