Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[Syryana]

Popcorn Mafia Redux

A 13 player setup
Modded by Syryana
Backup modded by fferyllt
Reviewed by: Cabd and penguin_alien

PLAYER LIST

:

SirCakez
Imperium (Tammy + Nachomamma8)
MUSHSHAGANA
ScrewTheTells
RLotus
Not_Mafia*
Duchess
Dunnstral
Happy Unbirthday Boon

Norfolk Boy1*

petapan

Rockhopper*

unwnd

Albert B. Rampage

Netflix and Chill (Brian Skies + notscience)
WhemeStar

Alive:

Spoiler:

SirCakez
ScrewTheTells
Not_Mafia
Dunnstral
petapan

Rockhopper

unwnd

Albert B. Rampage

WhemeStar

Dead:

Spoiler:

Netflix and Chill -

Vanilla Town

, killed by misfire D1
RLotus -

Vanilla Town

, killed by an angry godfather D2
Duchess -

Mafia Godfather

, bled out Night 2
Happy Unbirthday Boon -

Mafia Goon

, killed D3,
Imperium -

Vanilla Town

, killed by angry mobsters N3
MUSHSHAGANA -

Vanilla Town

, killed by misfire D4

Events:

Spoiler:

Day 1: Post #6
Day 2: Post #775
Day 3: Post #1454

Vote Counter:

Spoiler:

Living Players

SirCakez
ScrewTheTells
Not_Mafia
Dunnstral
petapan (replaces Rockhopper)
unwnd (replaces Albert B. Rampage)
WhemeStar

Links

Day 1: Post #6
Day 2: Post #775
Day 3: Post #1454

Deadline

(expired on 2021-02-24 17:00:00)

[Syryana]

General Rules

1. I don’t tolerate ad hom wars. If your posting is merely insulting a player without providing game content, you can expect a strike from me. Three strikes, you’re out. I'm fairly lenient about this, but posting “Fuck you” over and over again is simply not acceptable. Severe issues will be reported to the list mod(s).
2. If I say it violates these rules, it does. You can take it up with me postgame if you wish.
3. Play towards your win condition. Gambits are fine, directly harming your own team is not.
4. Once an shot is submitted, you may continue discussion until I lock the thread.
5. You can vote if you like, but it won't do much!
6. Do not quote or pretend to quote any information you get from me via PM. This includes posting your role card verbatim. Paraphrasing is fine, as are role claims naturally.
7. Do not talk about this game anywhere else, or with anyone else.
8. Do not discuss ongoing games in this thread. This includes games on sites other than mafiascum. This also includes using [redacted] as that loophole does not fly here.
9. Post every 48 hours. Failure to do so will earn you a prod. Respond to your prod within 24 hours, or face replacement. Three prods is also a force replacement. If you at any point receive the gun, you will be force replaced after one prod maximum whilst you hold the gun. Don't make the entire game wait on you.
10. Claiming scum by yourself is fine. Claiming scum with another player is an instant modkill. Don't do it.
11. If you have a question, please PM me. If a question is something that should be answered publicly, I will make a post addressing it without naming who asked it.
12. I do not fix tags or edit posts where you might make a formatting mistake, even if you ask me to.
13. I reserve the right to add to these rules or modify them, but only when I post notifying all players in the game of the change.
14. Loophole abuse is all fun and games until I modkill you. Don’t try it.
15. Lilac

(This color at #BF40FF)

is my color. You are welcome to use any other color of the rainbow.
16. Encryption, text hiding, and the like are silly. Don’t do it.
17. Do not use temporary information to convey messages. This includes your signature and your avatar, but is not limited to these things.
18. A modkill will always punish the faction modkilled more as far as timing goes. All modkills will be done after consultation with the listmods. Modkills may or may not end the day. Modkilled players will be changed to a neutral survivor, meaning they lose the game instantly.
19. In the event of site downtime lasting more than 3 hours; time will be added to the deadline to compensate at a 1 to 1 ratio.
20. All factional decisions must be agreed upon by all living members of that faction.
21. Prod dodges are not allowed to pad activity. You must post game advancing content at least every 48 hours or you will receive a prod. What constitutes game advancing content is left to my discretion; don't try to game me.
22. Do not discuss or speculate on why someone replaces out.

[Syryana]

Setup Rules

This game uses a variant of the Popcorn Mafia open setup. That means that the following roles exist:

8 Vanilla Townies

4 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia Godfather

Copies of the Role PMs can be found below for your convenience.

Before the game starts, mafia must elect a townie to be the gunbearer. That player has until deadline runs out to shoot another player. If the gunbearer hits a mafia goon, the goon dies the gunbearer keeps the gun. If the gunbearer hits the godfather, the gunbearer and godfather both die and the mafia reassign the gun. If the gunbearer hits town, the gunbearer dies and the targeted townie becomes the new gunbearer.

The gunbearer may select a target to shoot by either using VOTE: tags or by saying

Shoot: [Target]

. The gunbearer must fire publicly via in thread posting. Once a target has been selected that action is locked in and may not be changed.

If the gunbearer does not shoot by deadline, they die and the mafia pick a new gunbearer.

The gunbearer is always announced and confirmed as innocent.

This game is nightless.

Once during the game, if a goon is shot, the remaining scumteam then has 48 hours to vengekill one non-gunbearing player. During this time period the thread will remain unlocked but no shots from the gunbearer will be registered. The gunbearer's deadline will start as soon as the factional action is resolved.
If scum fails to select a target the factional kill is lost.

If the godfather is shot, the gunbearer dies, the godfather is then revealed to the game (as "dying") and scum has 48 hours to reassign the gun to a new player. The main thread will be locked during this duration. Once the scumteam assigns a new gunbearer, the godfather is considered dead and may no longer post in game or in the scum PT.

The vote counter is purely reference material. The only votes that matter are those of the gunbearer.

[Syryana]

Sample Role PMs

Spoiler: Sample Town Role PM

Welcome to Popcorn Mafia, [Player name]!

You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

You have no special abilities.

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated and at least one pro-Town player remains alive.

The game thread is here. Good luck!

Spoiler: Sample Mafia Godfather Role PM

Welcome to Popcorn Mafia, [Player name]!

You are a

Mafia Godfather

. Your partners are [Player name], [Player name], [Player name] and [Player name], who are all Mafia Goons.

During the game, you may communicate using this Private Topic. Your faction must pick a new Gunbearer at the beginning of the game AND when a Gunbearer has not used their shot before deadline hits and therefore dies.

During the game, if one of your faction is shot (maximum of once in the game), your team gains a factional kill. This kill may be used on any player not currently carrying the gun. You will have 48 hours from the time you gain this kill to declare a target. If no target is declared, the kill is lost.

During the game, if you are shot, the gunbearer will die. You then have 48 hours to reassign the gun to another living townie. Once the gun is assigned, you will die. If your team fails to reassign the gun, the moderator will reassign the gun randomly.

You win when your faction gains half or more of the town's population.

The game thread is here. Good luck.

Spoiler: Sample Mafia Goon Role PM

Welcome to Popcorn Mafia, [Player name]!

You are a

Mafia Goon

. Your partners are [Player name], [Player name], [Player name] and [Player name], who are all Mafia Goons with the exception of [Player Name] who is your Godfather.

During the game, you may communicate using this Private Topic. Your faction must pick a new Gunbearer at the beginning of the game AND when a Gunbearer has not used their shot before deadline hits and therefore dies.

During the game, if one of your faction is shot (maximum of once in the game), your team gains a factional kill. This kill may be used on any player not currently carrying the gun. You will have 48 hours from the time you gain this kill to declare a target. If no target is declared, the kill is lost.

During the game, if your godfather is shot, the gunbearer will die. You then have 48 hours to reassign the gun to another living townie. Once the gun is assigned, your godfather will die. If your team fails to reassign the gun, the moderator will reassign the gun randomly.

You win when your faction gains half or more of the town's population.

The game thread is here. Good luck.

[Syryana]

Role PMs will be sent out when I get a break from work. Once at least 10/13 have confirmed, the pregame 48 hour clock will begin.

[Syryana]

Role PMs have been sent out. 48 hour pregame timer will commence when 10/13 have confirmed.

[Syryana]

10/13 have confirmed. Night 0 has begun. Countdown ends in (expired on 2021-01-23 22:00:00)

[Syryana]

Welcome to Popcorn Mafia Redux! Night 0 is now over; Netflix and Chill has been nominated as the gunbearer! They are aligned with

Town

.

Votecount 1.0:

Not Voting (13): SirCakez, Imperium, MUSHSHAGANA, ScrewTheTells, RLotus, Not_Mafia, Duchess, Dunnstral, Norfolk Boy1, Rockhopper, Albert B. Rampage, Netflix and Chill, WhemeStar

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-02-07 10:00:00).

[Syryana]

My assumption regarding the votecount is it's purely a visual reference to where the general consensus is; a decision-making aid for the gunbearer and a source of information on town opinions for the scum. I doubt Syryana would give us secret vote mechanics.

The vote counter means nothing in terms of play and exists purely to give people something to reference. All mechanics in this game are outlined in the Setup Rules. The only votes that matter are those of the gunbearer. I will accept either a vote or the word "Shoot" bolded as indication of a target. Once a target has been selected it may not be changed. I have updated the Setup Rules to reflect this information.

[Syryana]

Albert B. Rampage has been replaced due to a sitewide ban. Please welcome unwnd!

[Syryana]

almost

[Syryana]

Official Vote Count

Norfolk Boy1

(2): SirCakez, Dunnstral

SirCakez

(1): Rockhopper

Duchess

(1): RLotus

MUSHSHAGANA

(1): WhemeStar

WhemeStar

(1): Duchess

Not_Mafia

(1): Not_Mafia

Not Voting

(6): Imperium, unwnd, ScrewTheTells, Norfolk Boy1, MUSHSHAGANA, Netflix and Chill

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-07 12:00:05)

[Syryana]

almost

[Syryana]

Official Vote Count

Norfolk Boy1

(2): SirCakez, Dunnstral

SirCakez

(1): Rockhopper

RLotus

(1): Duchess

Duchess

(1): RLotus

MUSHSHAGANA

(1): WhemeStar

Not_Mafia

(1): Not_Mafia

Not Voting

(6): Imperium, unwnd, ScrewTheTells, Norfolk Boy1, MUSHSHAGANA, Netflix and Chill

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-07 11:59:53)

[Syryana]

Public Service Announcement

Two items of notice:

1. Please be sure to use the correct pronouns. This goes for everyone.
2. A minor addendum to the primary ruleset: Prod dodging does not count for activity and I will be monitoring activity strictly. The OP has been updated to reflect this rule. (Edit: Added as rule 21)

If you have any questions, my PMs and DMs are always open to you. Thank you!

[Syryana]

Rockhopper has been prodded.

[Syryana]

ooh

[Syryana]

Netflix and Chill have fired upon RLotus! Unfortunately, they have shot a fellow townie and have been killed by misfire!

RLotus is the new gunbearer and confirmed as aligned with

Town

. Deadline for the next shot is (expired on 2021-02-10 22:00:00).

[/align]

[Syryana]

Official Vote Count

Not Voting

(5): Imperium, unwnd, ScrewTheTells, Norfolk Boy1, MUSHSHAGANA, SirCakez, Dunnstral, Rockhopper, Duchess, RLotus, WhemeStar, Not_Mafia

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-11 00:01:48)

[Syryana]

Rockhopper has requested replacement. Please welcome petapan!

[Syryana]

Official Vote Count

Not Voting

(12): SirCakez, Norfolk Boy1, RLotus, unwnd, ScrewTheTells, Imperium, Duchess, MUSHSHAGANA, Dunnstral, WhemeStar, petapan, Not_Mafia

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-11 00:00:55)

[Syryana]

Norfolk Boy1 has been prodded.

[Syryana]

Shots fired! RLotus lands a hit on multiple targets! Sadly, one of the targets was his pants, and whilst he was pulling them up, the

Mafia Godfather

Duchess blew his bollocks off. RLotus,

Vanilla Town

has now died. Scum now have 48 hours to reassign the gun, at which point Duchess will also die.

The thread will remain locked until (expired on 2021-02-04 10:00:00). NOTE: I have added time to the countdown so I don't have to open this bloody thing at midnight my time. Night can end early if all scum agree.

[Syryana]

Dawn rises. The death knell for the godfather sounds. MUSHSHAGANA, who you now know is

aligned with Town

awakens to find a wrapped package. She opens it to find a dead fish, a gun, and a note. "Soon, you sleep with the fishes".

It is now Day 3.

[Syryana]

Official Vote Count

Not Voting

(10): SirCakez, Norfolk Boy1, unwnd, ScrewTheTells, Imperium, MUSHSHAGANA, Dunnstral, WhemeStar, petapan, Not_Mafia

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-17 13:59:38)

[Syryana]

Not_Mafia has been prodded. Norfolk Boy1 has requested replacement.

[Syryana]

Don't discuss or speculate on replacement reasons. I have updated the primary ruleset to reflect this.

[Syryana]

Happy Unbirthday Boon has replaced Norfolk Boy1. Please welcome them!

[Syryana]

She shoots! She scores! Happy Unbirthday Boon,

Mafia Goon

, has died. MUSHSHAGANA remains the gunbearer. The mafia has 48 hours to determine a target for the factional venge-kill.

(expired on 2021-02-10 17:00:00)

[Syryana]

And with that, Imperium,

Vanilla Town

, has died.
It is now Day 4. MUSHSHAGANA remains the gunbearer.

Not Voting

(8): SirCakez, unwnd, ScrewTheTells, Dunnstral, WhemeStar, petapan, Not_Mafia, MUSHSHAGANA
Deadline is in (expired on 2021-02-24 17:00:00)

[Syryana]

That's one way to open a bottle. Sadly, it did not end well for our itinerant MUSHSHAGANA. Who is now dead.
It is now Day 5. Whemestar is a

Vanilla Townie

, and is now the gunbearer!
Deadline is in (expired on 2021-02-27 21:00:00).

[Syryana]

WhemeStar fires! Unfortunately, he doesn't get very far.
With the death of WhemeStar, the mafia have taken over the town! The mafia team of

Dunnstral, petapan, ScrewTheTells, Happy Unbirthday Boon and Duchess

have won!

[Syryana]

Thanks everyone for playing! I hope this iteration of popcorn made it fun for both sides!

I think this setup still needs more tweaking; it feels slightly scumsided because town only got three "miselims" when in a normal 13p town should have four.
That said scum deserved the win here.

Maybe one less scum but keep the vengekill and gf bomb kill and this feels pretty fair but idk I haven't looked at the other iterations

I think you meant 2 mislims vs the normal 3, but the point is noted.

I ran simulations and the way this setup works is that basically the more accurate town is, the more screwed scum are. Like even a small increase in accuracy from shooters results in a huge swing against scum. Just 5% more accuracy on the town's part swings almost 10% of games in town's favor.

With regards to the mislims, I considered changing scum's wincon from "half or more" to "more than half", which makes it such that scum needs to exceed the number of town and town gets its three mislims. However, I think the reduction in average mislims is good for this setup due to the late game swing towards town. Once scum exhaust their tools each correct elimination directly adds more mislims into town's pocket and makes uphill climbs for scum almost impossible. Therefore I think having a slightly more dangerous early game is both balanced and actually slightly beneficial to town as it further discourages rushing, hero shots and hipfires. This setup is all about good day play on both sides. It is absolutely swingy but personally I think it's pretty well balanced. Assuming town shoots correctly slightly more than half the time (55% of the time, in my sims), town will win 52% of games.

This all being said, I am absolutely open to feedback from both teams (please give me feedback!) and I will run a tweaked version of this in the future. I already have some ideas on how to make it slightly better feeling for scum (not in terms of power, but rather agency).

[Syryana]

i actually thought in terms of agency it was fine, you get two opportunities to remove town players you'd otherwise never be able to kill which is the big roadblock in nightless

My tweak as it were is to substitute the godfather for a suicide bomber, activatable at any time the bomber is alive and on anyone, including the gunbearer. Same killing power, more agency. Also makes the role more strategic as it's proactive instead of reactive.

[Syryana]

This is interesting mechanically. Is the bomber strictly better though? What happens if the bomber gets shot before activating their bomb? Based on the above wording it would not result in a nightkill so in that situation it's worse than the current godfather trigger. Would make for a pretty intense game of chicken for the players involved, though. But it might encourage a meta of shooting without much warning.

It involves some chicken. And some strategerie.

But yes, if the gunbearer hits the bomber, the ability is lost. Use it, lose it, or get the bomber so townread he never gets shot. But it's also bad play for town to quickly hipfire just to try to hit this.

It'll be interesting. If it doesn't work well in practice, I'll can the idea.

[Syryana]

?
In a 13p town can have four miselims: 10v3, 8v3, 6v3, 4v3
Here we had three mis-shots - on Lotus, Wheme and NM

I don't consider XyLO to be mislims that town "gets". If town "gets" a mislim, that implies a recoverable position whereas in XyLO a mislim means game over. That's where I got the 2 vs 3 instead of 3 vs 4.

And as I said, even with the single fewer total mislims from a standard 13p, town still wins more often than not if they shoot correctly about half the time.

[Syryana]

But isn't shooting correctly 50% of the time already WAY above random chance? Because when the gunbearer shoots, there's always at least as many town as scum. Pre-Elim-Lose, there's a higher chance of hitting town (i.e. shooting wrong).

So if you literally gave town a 55% of shooting scum with each shot then this is simulating really effective scum-hunting. The first shot should have 5/12 chance of hitting scum, or 42%. 55% is huge, that';s like a 30% relative increase in scum hunting effectiveness.

You're assuming town's chances are always random. In practice, town's chances are AT WORST random.

Town's chances are always better than random. This is the difficulty in simulating mafia; how does one incorporate tactics like scumhunting and townhunting in scenarios? But in all my years playing mafia I've seen town take good shots and bad shots but I've never seen town pick a name out of a hat and yeet it.

If the chances are purely random, scum win an overwhelming 90+% of games. Historical data proves the lie to this; popcorn in past games has had an overwhelming town winrate. The gunbearers on average shoot correctly more than half the time. Hell, I myself hydra'd with Nacho and had a 75% accuracy rate in Open 501. So I took the outliers, averaged them out, and modified the base accuracy until the winrate matched the historical data. Then, using that as a baseline, I added in the vengekills and tweaked the accuracy to see the effects of good and bad scumhunting. Sometimes town all misses, sometimes town all hits. Over a billion iterations (which is what I ran) those sort of outliers iron themselves out.

It is possible I overestimated town's chances slightly, but this setup's swing is more dependent on good play than almost any other anyways due to its (more or less) nightless state and lack of anything resembling a PR game.

On another note though, I will say it was a pleasure having you in this game, both of you! I enjoyed your contributions in the scum PT and impressed by how you used self meta to throw MUSH and the other town off your scent.