Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Marksman]

Yo ho ho

[Marksman]

Confirming multi-voter

[Marksman]

VOTE: hellbooks

She OMGUSED me.

[Marksman]

Another safe entrance to the game.

VOTE: Hiraki

[Marksman]

VOTE: innocentvillager for voting for all the town. Must be scum with reads like that.

VOTE: Isis for trying to stop the party before it begins. We're all disciplined civilians here. I'm sure we can control ourselves when the wagons get big.

[Marksman]

Elements you're a treasure

like Au or Ag

this is pretty scummy ngl
+1

Isis likes buddying me

town

Wanting to sheep a slot and thinking it is town aren't always in lockstep. Sometimes I want to sheep stops until it seems they aren't finding me scum then kill them if I think it's a good player.

scum

Any I was going to state that my take is that Elements is townier than Hiraki, but Hiraki is townish too. So it'd be flipped for me.

town

congratulations

jester

[Marksman]

Fun started without me!

vote: innocentvillager

I guess voting for everyone gets things going, but as long as it includes me it can't be a correct list

scum

I didn't see the extra pages. O.o

town

snip

town

VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
UNVOTE: hellbooks

[Marksman]

Suspicious of Elements and Chemical Elements being similarly named. I don't trust it one bit. Seems a little too convenient to be a coincidence.

Likely to be at least 2 scum there.

[Marksman]

Thanks for the intel. Keep providing useful meta like that and you'll be out of my votes in no time.

I don't

townread

it, but do think it's very slightly towny. Scum sometimes read the thread but put off posting until later. That post from Lavender means she didn't do that which makes her >randtown.

[Marksman]

meh, don't actually trust marksie

*sigh*

town

@Wey - Why Chemical Elements for proactive town?

@all - Almost time for the first dunk. Should be innocentvillager for the fake/forced tone.

[Marksman]

@Wey - Half (3) of the names in 66 hadn't posted yet, how can you find them suspicious?

@innocentvillager - What's bad about it?

[Marksman]

VOTE: spicer1209
VOTE: Casey
VOTE: Hayasaka

Here's some motivation if you're feeling shy. Full claim in your first post(s).

[Marksman]

Wey said he found them suspicious. I'm not saying they're suspicious, I'm voting to pressure them to post. Clear difference.

What bad news did I try and deflect?

[Marksman]

Chemical Elements is null so far. Fluff posting is NAI, and the VCs I want to say are very slightly towny because it means they're checking in regularly and have motivation, but it depends on their alignment preference.

[Marksman]

What? That was his explanation for finding ChemElem town. Nothing to do with the 3 names I voted. Read it again?

[Marksman]

I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well

[Marksman]

@Hiraki - I do think that's a stretch actually if you're suggesting I should've immediately assumed that. You're putting words in his mouth.

+Hiraki/Wey equity

[Marksman]

I'd continue arguing with Hiraki on the difference between suspicion/pressure but I suspect it wouldn't help determine alignments.

[Marksman]

@Hiraki - I do think that's a stretch actually if you're suggesting I should've immediately assumed that. You're putting words in his mouth.

No, I don't think you immediately assume it. I think you go back, think about it for a second, and then put it all together. Instead, I believe you saw an opportunity, seized it, and tried to get something with it. I won't allow it though. One is trying to solve the puzzle to get the right answer, the other is trying to get a lynch on whomever (eventually). You reek of the later.

Because I didn't make a somewhat disconnected link between those parts of his posts? Sure thing, bud.

Others should chip in on this. Who else drew that conclusion (before reading Hiraki's reasoning)?

[Marksman]

No it 100% has to do with your alignment. Please tell me what he was suspicious of and why when he didn't post anything. He literally cannot be suspicious. That is a townie mindset. You decided to try and rip his words apart as if they had meaning no matter what he was saying. That is a scum mindset.

Who is "he"? The 3 people I voted for? They're not "suspicious" for not posting. I am voting to

pressure

them. You telling me you've never voted someone you're null reading or even townreading them to motivate them to post more?

Wey said he was

suspicious

of "most" of the people in that post. For me, being suspicious of someone means you dislike them for specific reasons. Maybe it's because Wey thinks scum are more likely to lurk start of game. Or maybe it was an oversight from scum!Wey and he gave reasoning without thinking about first. I asked him the question to solve him. You needleslly stepped in and answered for him. That's scummy.

[Marksman]

Are you a Hiraki fanboy? (I won't judge)

[Marksman]

Wey could've answered in the following ways:
-They haven't posted yet. Lurking is scummy. (This would be fine)
-I didn't realise they hadn't posted yet, whoops. (This would be scummy)

Those are the two I can think of, but the point isn't how I think he could answer. I'm asking him a question to see how he answers and so that I can read his alignment off of that.

I don't think Hiraki is scummy for our disagreements on pressure/suspicion - I agree with Chelem that it's likely a result of conflicting playstyle. However, I do think he's scummy for assuming Wey could only answer that question in one way, and answering it for him. Unsure if that means they're both scum, because it's such a needless way to associate yourself, but it's just

weird

and kinda scummy from Hiraki.

[Marksman]

ahahahaha "NoNo",, caught scum, deadsheep me
trust you, marksie

v/la 18 hours

kbai

meh, don't actually trust marksie

*sigh*

Nono's nulltown because of this sequence. They say I'm town and then come back 20min later to say they changed their mind. town do these kind of consecutive posts where they change their mind with no posts from others between them more often than scum do.

[Marksman]

UNVOTE: Hayasaka

[Marksman]

Can't apply the same logic. Only a couple of min between them and it looks like she was catching up. The key element in Nono's is that they thought about it in that 20min gap, or thought of coming back because they changed their mind while thinking about it.

[Marksman]

I think you're scummy because your tone sounded off early on. Like a little over the top and forced.

[Marksman]

^That's to inno

[Marksman]

Do you have meta of you being like this early on in town games of yours, Inno?

Thanks, Wey. Unfortunately I won't be able to gauge much from that in terms of your alignment after the 2 page discussion about how you could answer and what would be scummy/towny

[Marksman]

Aww, gotta love the show of support from Hiraki. What a wholesome anime guy

[Marksman]

I like.
UNVOTE: Casey

[Marksman]

Both. I like the takes.

Isis as a top townread I question though. 23 and 31 are both mechbased thoughts which could come from either alignment.

[Marksman]

I think you get modkilled if you post too often. At least, that's what Ruby Red told me when I messaged her about it earlier.

[Marksman]

Last town game: viewtopic.php?t=83760&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

I got bored of waiting for inno. The playfulness is still there, but it's much more natural and toned down I feel.

[Marksman]

I think you get modkilled if you post too often. At least, that's what Ruby Red told me when I messaged her about it earlier.

This is either a really bad joke or a really weird mod move.

Nah, fully serious, man.

She ranted to me for a bit about how there's way too many hyperposters nowadays. I think she's pretty damn passionate about it.

[Marksman]

I feel bad. I was kidding. Ruby Red doesn't care about hyperposters.

In fact, she actually expressed her love for them when she messaged me. I think she might grant them 1-shot dunkproof or something.

[Marksman]

Elements and Chemical Elements are not the same people.

Well,

shoot

You're not joking at me right? qwq I can't tell

Just to check: You're kidding, right?

[Marksman]

They've literally posted next to each other, don't have similar avatars, and Elem even gave a read on Chem Elem:

Considering that this game can only last for a maximum of fourteen days and is nightless, I suggest we dunk one slot within the next 8 hours.

I'm liking Chem Elem
VOTE: Nono
VOTE: isis

Were you skimming? That's such a weird thing to lie about.

[Marksman]

How did you get emojis to work?

[Marksman]

☹

[Marksman]

Whoever you scumread.

That's a good post from Hiraki.

[Marksman]

I don't get your reason for voting hellbooks, Isis. How was a townbloc revolving around Hayasaka forming?

If the townbloc is a green house, and Hayasaka is an orange house, what color house would hellbooks be?

[Marksman]

☹

[Marksman]

Hayasaka, could you give reasons for why Isis and Inno feel incredibly townie?

[Marksman]

Hellbooks is a strong townread but I expect her to flip scum.

[Marksman]

Hellbooks is a strong townread but I expect her to flip scum.

wat the fack

Let me rephrase it:
Hellbooks has a towny tone and posts towny content, which is why I'm scumreading her. /s

[Marksman]

Wey, should I be worried your top guess for scum is someone with 1 post?

Maybe this is a playstyle difference, but I don't see how you scumlean Spicer rather than have him in the "Either way" section.

Nono only went on a 18 hour V/LA btw. Barely counts as one, unsure why they even bothered.

[Marksman]

I I townread hellbooks, alright??? She likes to be seen as polarizing so that's what I was going for.

[Marksman]

visible confusion

Bus who?

[Marksman]

VOTE: Elements

Would like some thoughts from you. Comment on the big 3 (villager,Nono,Wey,) if you need direction.

[Marksman]

I tried to get anything alignment relevant from that last string of Nono posts, and I really couldn't lol. I just want to soulread them as town and be done with it, but I don't have any substantial reasons to think that.

[Marksman]

Bus means voting/pushing for a scum partner. I think you mean just being opportunistic in general.

[Marksman]

It's a pretty null entrance for me. Asking who to vote is kinda equivalent to asking for a summary.

Why do you think town would be more likely to apologise? If anything, I think scum would be more likely to show placating/specifying behavior.

[Marksman]

*pacifying behavior

[Marksman]

elim chem elem elim chem elem elem chim elim elem chim elem chelem elem chelim

[Marksman]

Why Chim Elom? I like them being active while admitting they have no new thoughts or reads.

@Chelem - What's your mafia experience like?

[Marksman]

(I like the fact they don't feel the need to give something to satisfy us)

[Marksman]

What's up, Nono

[Marksman]

Town: spicer

UNVOTE: Spicer

???

Do I have to spell it out?
*sigh*
VOTE: clone

p-edit: eh.

I'll do it for you.
c l o n e

[Marksman]

Late to the party. Who should I vote?

Hm, yes... I see now. How did I miss this townspew?

[Marksman]

I want to agree with that one, but why?

[Marksman]

townie entrance post and zero activity with a huge wagon on him on page 13. Is that almost ever a scum slot

Alright. Explain the spicer unvote.

[Marksman]

I think chain dunks are a thing, yeah, A50. We need to be careful of that when dunking.

Speaking of, we need to dunk someone around about now. I still like my meta reasons on inno.

Pedit: That's a bad idea. Always better to see the flip before the next dunk.

[Marksman]

Would also be good with Wey or Elem dunks.

[Marksman]

Yeah, I thought Isis was a undercover cop working for scum. It wasn't just me using "town" and "scum" instead of "towny" and "scummy".

[Marksman]

I think hellbooks sometimes has two separate thoughts in the same post

[Marksman]

What did you find so townie in hb's 56??

The unvote on me.

[Marksman]

Last town game: viewtopic.php?t=83760&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

I got bored of waiting for inno. The playfulness is still there, but it's much more natural and toned down I feel.

Look at inno's last town game, A50. His tone and excitement start of this one is way over the top.

He hasn't commented on this or addressed me once on this point either, which kinda just makes me think I'm right.

@inno - Why am I wrong?

[Marksman]

How exactly is that a scumclaim?

[Marksman]

um I didn't comment on it because it's so weak? but if you insist, yeah maybe I'll also just go to everyone's most recent towngame, look at their opening and scumread them because I can find a difference...

Eh, your tone could've been different because you were especially excited about this game, or were going for a different approach...etc. Your lack of trying to explain or question me on the difference is what I don't like.

[Marksman]

Idk, I feel like I'm trying to convince myself you're scum, but you're just my best lead. I just think we really need to dunk someone soon because this deadline is real unforgiving and we can't really afford to wait much longer for the first one. People should start consolidating.

[Marksman]

Pressure votes do work in this game actually. Votes aren't reset after a dunk. So, the person knows that vote is there to stay until they can do something that gets it removed.

[Marksman]

townie entrance post and zero activity with a huge wagon on him on page 13. Is that almost ever a scum slot

I just realized you were talking about spicer here. How on earth is that a towny entrance post?

[Marksman]

Too scummy to be scum is what you're saying basically. I disagree, and can see scum coming in and see a wagon on them building and not be asked to post/effort their way out of it.
Also, who's gonna defend Spicer when there's literally nothing to defend?

[Marksman]

Like, demotivation and replacing out is scum-indicative. Sure, if you expect scum to play optimally, you can say "oh, scum doesn't do that because it's suicide" but sometimes they just do.

I get your reasoning though, and don't think you're scummy for believing that.

[Marksman]

Mm, still disagree that what's spicer's done is town-indicative, but I can see why you'd believe it.

I think inno arguing down a lhf dunk counterwagon with reasoning he seems to believe is a little towny?

I want to dunk one of these 3 today:
Wey
Elem
Inno

In that order of preference.

[Marksman]

UNVOTE: Isis

She's probably right about inno TMIing spicer and I shouldn't be thinking that's towny.

[Marksman]

Inclined to agree on A50-town. There's some posts that are weird like when he says "I know you're probably joking but this is really scummy" or something along those lines, and calling my call to dunk soon a scumclaim and then immediately going back on that, but there's flashes of cityness in there as well.

I'm still of the opinion we should dunk like right about now btw. Isn't it better to have more time later with flips, rather than on D1 when we have the least info?

[Marksman]

How's your intuition, Casey?

[Marksman]

as especially in this game with no deadlines scum could just wait, ask for replacement, wait, ask for replacement. If we purely judge by content, and there is none, they shouldn't be fully safe.

This is another weird read. You think scum would just replace out one after another in an attempt to say nothing and win? That's just...

weird

, and I don't know if you really believe that.

[Marksman]

L stands for Launch obviously. Get the trebuchet ready, everyone.

[Marksman]

Wey was just dunked. We should get a flip when Ruby comes online.

[Marksman]

Or town does a mixture of both like they usually do.

I haven't found my IC partner that I'm confident on. hellbooks and Casey are candidates, but nothing to bet the game on yet.

[Marksman]

Looks like a good plan to me. Nono and Spicer are the designated ICs. I have decided this because of the way it is.

Please start dunking everyone else without mercy.

[Marksman]

VOTE: Almost50

I just want to flip someone, probably WLC.

Why were you voting for Wey and of this opinion, inno? This is the only mention of him I could find in your ISO.

[Marksman]

That's Almost50 on D-1 btw

[Marksman]

A closer look shows WLC was voting me (but not Spicer) AND voting Nono simultaneously. I guess I was right unvoting there.

Why did you think that was a good/towny thing from Wey?

[Marksman]

Sell me on Spicer.

Weird question.

Hiraki also looks bad for defending Wey earlier, bit I'm hesitant here because it was almost too blatant.

[Marksman]

Perhops.

Nono, I have some very important questions to solve your alignment. I suggest you think carefully about them and answer when you're ready.

1) Why the name "Nono"?
2) Please rank [No, Nah, Nope, Nay] in order of preference.
3) What were you getting at in 286 and 293?

[Marksman]

Actually, I read back through A50's defences on the clone, and they were always in the middle of a wall and weren't exactly convincing. For example, he said Wey looked good for which wagons he was voting but didn't explain why that was towny - that's not going to really change anyone's mind if he's trying to get people to stop voting his scum partner.
I think as scum you bus or actually give reasons to make others unvote Wey, and not what Almost50 did there.

UNVOTE: Almost50

@Elements - Why do you think he's town, and what's suspcious about Hayasaka/I putting him on D-1?

[Marksman]

Bye

[Marksman]

The red PM has the "confirm in thread" part as well though

[Marksman]

VOTE: Lavender

@Ruby Red

- Is Spicer being replaced?

We have less than 10 days left, people. Put your votes down and dunk.

[Marksman]

UNVOTE: innocentvillager

[Marksman]

I could take the slot and dual wield if required. Just PM me and I'll be happy to help.

[Marksman]

@Elements - Why do you think he's town, and what's suspcious about Hayasaka/I putting him on D-1?

neither you or hayasaka were voting for the scum flip and then you voted a50 who I think is town

I was doing this actually for better or for worse.
I have like 7 posts this certainly wouldn't be hard to check.

VOTE: Elements

I was voting for Wey too. I have no idea how Elem gets that wrong for both of us. I don't know what the scum motivation for that is though - acting lost maybe?

[Marksman]

@Lavender - Who do you think is scum then on or even off the wagon? And if you think Almost50 is hiding weapons of mass destruction in his shed, then why don't you vote him?

[Marksman]

@Ruby Red - Elements appears to have taken a page from Wey's book and has cloned himself in the VC. I am assuming this is intended.

fixed.
-rr

[Marksman]

@Lavender - There's so many ways to interpret that last emoji...I can see that you're trying to day roleblock me by blowing my mind.

Have you played with anyone else in this game before that you could base a meta read on?

[Marksman]

what I mean is I think the AtE is genuine emotion/frustration as either alignment, but the frustration is for a slightly different reason as each alignment

Why was A50's frustration of a towny variety?

[Marksman]

Also hot take, Marksman as your only target as scum feels like a weird place to be as scum.
Nono is probably actually going to flip town.

towny

hellbooks dedicates a full post to discouraging a scum-threatening townblock from developing around hayasaka in a setup where she can't be killed before getting a chance to mention it.

I didn't like dedicating a post to that either, but this post feels like a bit of a stretch to me on what is happening.

townish

Like on one hand I agree why would town feel the need to go back and make that kind of unneccasary clarification, but I don't think it was a measure to prevent me from being town bloc'd. At worse it was scum trying to correct something a reasonable townie would just shrug off and not worry about until later.

townity

Casey is incredibly townie to me after her enterance.
So is Isis and Innocent Villager.

I'd vote everyone else but I prefer playing slowly myself.

scummy

I was voting him.
Easy.

scummish

@Elements - Why do you think he's town, and what's suspcious about Hayasaka/I putting him on D-1?

neither you or hayasaka were voting for the scum flip and then you voted a50 who I think is town

I was doing this actually for better or for worse.
I have like 7 posts this certainly wouldn't be hard to check.

VOTE: Elements

"for better or for worse" - why for worse? Scummy

VOTE: Spicer

I am a strong advocate of killing people to save the mod replacement troubles.

wolfy

I townleaned Hayasaka early on but her content's gone downhill over time. Not my first choice but we need another dunk.

VOTE: Hayasaka D-1

[Marksman]

I think a lot of people in this game don't quite understand the implication of literally losing if the deadline is met. We're dunking far too slowly here.

[Marksman]

Nono is my strongest town read.
I really don't think scum ever play like this.

None of my other reads are strong enough to be a "dying wish".
Cya everyone good luck.

o7

Ask Ruby Red which side she comes from in the dead thread.

[Marksman]

no youre getting added to the super exclusive dead people group chat ! !

Hayasaka's pretty lucky when you really think about it. The earlier you die, the more exclusive it is. If you die later, you're just an afterthought addition.

i like casey but im afraid shes deepwolfing

Why?

[Marksman]

Does it make any sense that I am not voting ANYONE as scum??

FFS, people. We're playing MAFIA, not shooting darts! Use your heads.

Hmm, not a fan of this. There's been a dunk since you last posted you know. You have nothing else to comment on other than defend yourself? And what do you mean exactly in the latter quote?

[Marksman]

Greetings, Raya.

I was talking to Ruby Red earlier and she let slip you were third party. Be honest with me; are you a cult leader, arsonist, or something else?

[Marksman]

*shudders*

You still give me these weird feelings, inno; especially with comments like those.

[Marksman]

Is Raya just a very convincing AI programmed to shitpost and play mafia? I'm getting those feels.

Okay, A50. Thank you for the advice. Has Hayasaka's townflip changed the course of your next dart?

[Marksman]

UNVOTE: Raya
I am once again creeped out about innocent villager pretending to know the alignment of Rayaslot and I think dithering about townreading people for calling him out looks like scum damage control

The reason I'm no longer voting him is because I think his increased WIM/activity and motivation after the scumflip is town-indicative. Also, this was towny:

alll y’all are great town or scum <3 I mean we’re all wasting our time reading through each other’s shitposts and trying to figure out who a fake arbitrary group of people are

like Nonos posting is fucking hilarious, Leader has fun sharp posts, A50 fucks me up every time he goes through the thread from 10 pages ago etc etc

I'm trying to figure out if his tone that keeps pinging me is scummy or something which just doesn't agree with me.

[Marksman]

this was completely not game related or AI how can you get pings from this wtf

622 and 623 are very game-related.

If they're genuine and you're enjoying yourself so much after Wey was dunked, it's town-indicative.

[Marksman]

Scum are slightly more likely than random to vote a partner over a town in RVS.

I don't remember where I heard this, but it's in the "seems legit" part of my mind, so it must've been a reputable source. Like, northsidegal maybe.

[Marksman]

Why do you scumread me, Raya?

[Marksman]

I get a strong towny vibe from her posts. No specific post, but rather hher consistency throughout the game hasn't wavered. I've been watching her vigilantly and I see no cause for alarm from Hellbooks.

Agree with this. I was townreading her almost solely off tone. She has a scumgame (Grand Idea uPick), and she was a lot more terse and serious.

RIP though.

[Marksman]

Wait, A50, are you not voting out of safety because you don't want chain reactions, or because you don't know who scum are?

[Marksman]

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

[Marksman]

A50's posting is towny in tone, but I don't like the complete lack of scumreads. You had some before you "reset".

Do you think people like Casey are scum for voting you while not actually scumreading you, or town that are misplaying? I couldn't tell which you were implying from your post.

[Marksman]

Maybe hammering people right as Ruby Red goes to sleep is optimal for getting maximum time to discuss stuff

[Marksman]

@Chemelem - Why are you on all the wagons but your brother?

[Marksman]

I know you said to unvote Lavender, Casey, but I don't see any reason to think she's town.

Actually, I'd prefer a Elem dunk over Lavender dunk because this seems to just be how Lavender plays sometimes, while Ele actually does more as town most of the time (see his recent previous nightless game).

UNVOTE: Lavender

[Marksman]

There's quite a few flaws in that, Raya. Like, I wasn't fighting for spicer to be dunked, I was arguing his one post wasn't towny. I was saying pressure votes

do

work, not don't. I didn't say my overall read o inno was towny in 366, I said he did something towny, which raised him from top scumread to no.3 scumread.
I'll address other stuff like the Wey thing when I'm not on mobile.

Agree we should slow it down btw

I'll respond properly

[Marksman]

I brainslipped

Nono, why is he a guiltyvillager?

[Marksman]

VOTE: Chemical Elements

Hydraulic press vote

[Marksman]

Chemical Elements / Isis / Marksman is my guess now.

Why?

inno focusing on the likilehood of nailing the scumteam rather than talking about the people themselves is weird.

Raya's reevaluation is kinda towny. Agree with 840, but I think trying to maintain all of your members, especially early on in a nightless is pretty important. So, I do think scum would've avoided bussing, or at least not planned to bus from the start. But once it looked like Wey was a sinking ship, 1 or 2 of them probably hopped on for the towncred.

[Marksman]

Never mind, I read this post from Raya again and it really creeps me out.

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

Will do

As far as your first vote on him goes it was the first vote on the wagon aside from inno's vote which doesn't really count.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you scumread him for finding players who haven't posted yet to be suspicious. You questioned him about this which means you were giving him a chance.

One of the reasons I scumread him was because his biggest suspect was someone with 1 post, yes. Questioning him about this is normal and how you scumhunt. Determining questioning as "giving your scum partner a chance" is really strange.

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

You're starting with the conclusion, and trying to find a suitable reason for it. Like, working backwards from your answer. Why is that more likely than me scumreading and wanting to dunk Wey?

Then from there you were committed to his dunk as he was the top on your list of who you wanted to dunk next.

Tell me why you couldn't have just been early distancing from Wey then later when he was essentially destined to be dunked bussing him?

What's the difference between my early and later interactions with Wey? Where is the transition from distancing to committing to bus? I don't get where you're drawing this stuff from, and concluding it's more likely a bus rather than a natural scumread.

You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

To clarify it wasn't solely page 15. It just happened to be when I was reading 15 that I felt more confident even unrelated since I was thinking about the past pages as well.

For Inno:
-I had been agreeing with most of what he said
-He was pushing for more activity page 15
-His take in 358 seems more like something scum would turn into a scumread. Not townread them for it. I strongly think that was a more town approach to that read
-359 is good too. Maybe biased since it's my slot and I know I'm town but the fact that he defended a highly voted wagon that's conftown to me when as scum he could have just let it get eliminated. Especially in this set-up. He also continues to defend my slot.

For Marksman:
-Honestly mainly tonal
-Also biased that you keep fighting for my slot to be dunked this page and arguing with Inno who is a pretty strong townread for me
-I disagree with you saying pressure votes don't work
-You also say in 366 that Inno is a bit towny but then have him as number 3 in your dunk list.

Talked about this in 791.

Almost all of the reasons seem really fake, but the only reason I'm hesitant is because why does scum!Raya enter the game scumreading Marksman over other people who had more votes?

[Marksman]

How come there's been no votecounts from you this game, Fredrick? You're usually so on the ball.

[Marksman]

Flawed "correlation = causation" arguments are the words I was looking for regarding that Raya post.

I'm a little scared of Nono tbh but still think she's more likely town than not. Reassure me, or at least post some Lion RP to compensate.

[Marksman]

Casey, Isis, Nono is the city trinity.

Inno has a bunch of towny posts but the tone is something I don't know if I can fully get over and allow him to endgame with.

@Hiraki - What's your read on your supreme follower?

[Marksman]

Sorry sorry, I didn't expect for me to be gone that long, some IRL things that I don't want to think about.
I'm going to go ahead and re-read this game and see what I come up with.
So I can actually be of some use! ٩(•̤̀ᵕ•̤́๑)

UNVOTE: Lavender

What in that post from Lav triggered an unvote?

[Marksman]

First, Raya is going over the facts and showing her line of logic. What part of the recap itself is actually bad? Second, that recap goes into a question. What exactly is bad about that?

I criticized Raya on this too. Do you disagree with my reasons?

[Marksman]

Lavender's reasons in her read list are meh, and some are NAI, but her tone feels genuine. Gonna compare it with similar looking readlists I found in her other games later.

Can't believe no one's stating their reads on Ruby Red though... what if she's feeling left out?

Ruby Red - Can be a little quiet, but is very proactive when it comes to providing VCs to help town see where they are, and for valuable VCA later down the line.

@Ruby Red

: Why aren't you putting your vote down?

[Marksman]

I wanted her to talk about my reasons for scumreading Wey and whether she found them legitimate or bussy. Instead, she looked at what I did (like scumreading and committing to dunk Wey) and then tried to draw conclusions of how that could come from scum, instead of thinking about what scum is likely to do, and then seeing whether that's what I was doing. So again, working backwards from the conclusion.

[Marksman]

I don't comment on Ruby Red cause I don't know her meta

She votes people usually, as seen here:

oh shit i forgot to VOTE: georgebailey

However, she did forget to for a while in that game, which is why I'm giving her a chance to put it down now.

[Marksman]

There's no argument on timing either. I was voting and pushing Wey start to end, which is why I asked Raya for where her suggestion of me transitioning from distancing to bussing happens. What exactly is the "gotcha"? I don't get it.

[Marksman]

What's not to get? Ruby Red usually votes people, but hasn't this game. It's suspicious but she can be forgetful, so I'm asking her why she hasn't voted anyone yet.

[Marksman]

Stating him as my preferred dunk, and pointing out things from him I find scummy

is

pushing.

Mm, still disagree that what's spicer's done is town-indicative, but I can see why you'd believe it.

I think inno arguing down a lhf dunk counterwagon with reasoning he seems to believe is a little towny?

I want to dunk one of these 3 today:
Wey
Elem
Inno

In that order of preference.

as especially in this game with no deadlines scum could just wait, ask for replacement, wait, ask for replacement. If we purely judge by content, and there is none, they shouldn't be fully safe.

This is another weird read. You think scum would just replace out one after another in an attempt to say nothing and win? That's just...

weird

, and I don't know if you really believe that.

That's not even the point of the argument though. What is this "gotcha moment" you were talking about?

[Marksman]

grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble

grumble

Spoiler:

grumble

[Marksman]

Read list and recent thoughts and stuff

Casey - Townadise in proactiveness and that associations post.
Isis - Townage tone, nuanced thoughts of nuanceyness.
Nono - Her wallpost was Townity.
innocentvillager - Consistently speeds up dunks which is very good for town considering how slow we're going and has little towncred potential. Shady tone.
Almost50 - Has a towny tone. Disappeared recently, hasn't been very proactive.
Lavender - Close to null. Forgot to meta her. Reminder to do that tomorrow.
Raya36 - Funny feelings of fabrication.
Hiraki - I consistently disagree with his takes. Could be that we think very differently, or that his alignment differs from mine.

[Marksman]

Yeah, it's a little weird right now. There's not enough feelings of scuminess from the remaining players to account for 3 of them. Scum are playing well.

[Marksman]

I don't think Scum!Hiraki pushes CE so blatantly knowing he would flip green.

Eh, I think Hiraki is the type of player who would do that as scum actually. Iirc, he's done it in Chromavalon mafia, but he didn't get his target dunked in that case.

[Marksman]

Part of me wants to let the timer run down so I can see Ruby Red deliver on all of the promises if what'll happen if we run out of time. I don't think she'd lie to us.

[Marksman]

That's a good point.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Hiraki

[Marksman]

oh I forgot A50 i think he's town too

You forgot Raya as well

i think my biggest regret this game is that i still don't think any of the mislynches were bad

and while i know that's not an excuse for taking an L here (which i'm pretty confident this becomes) it just annoys me

The hellbooks dunk was real bad actually

[Marksman]

Sounds good, I could help out with that too.

I checked Lavender's meta and she's only ever provided a readslist once before, and that was as scum. On its own, that's hugely scum-indicative, but the readlist itself has so much less energy in way, like there's less of those thoughts where you write something and then change you mind slightly about it the next second, and write something else after it. That kind of stream of consciousness is present in her readlist in this game though.

@Lavender - Why'd you decide to make a readlist this game?

[Marksman]

Phantom Vote: Fredrick A Campbell

[Marksman]

The fact Lavender felt the need to explain the lack of a readlist in every other game she's played is actually a little sus to me - the first line would've been a reasonable explanation on its own. I still like the thoughts and tone in the readlist itself though. It'd be helpful if you could answer Casey's question as well, Lavender.

[Marksman]

Hiraki/Raya/Lavender would be my power-solve, Casey. Inb4 I'm completely wrong and it's something like Almo, inno, and Isis. Or maybe even Nono, no no, I'd be surprised about that actually. Part of my reason for townreading Nono is that I have a feeling Nono as a player would feel bad for their teammates with their dunkbaity style of play if they were scum, so are far less likely to bus Wey in the way that they did, considering they're unlikely to endgame themselves with their playstyle.

[Marksman]

Also, you know it's a sad day when you're forced to have a semi townlean in your solve.

[Marksman]

Nono/Marksman/?

I don't know about this question mark character but the other two look like good townbloc material.

[Marksman]

Actually, I want to say Hiraki/Raya/Almo as my guess for now.

[Marksman]

It's to see who's closest post game. Watch, one of these will be correct:

inno/Raya/Isis
Hiraki/Almo/Lav
Casey/Lavender/Nono

If you're scum, you can ace this at the expense of outting your team. I'd say the bragging rights are pretty damn worth it.

[Marksman]

I hope everyone here is down for a marathon kind of last day for this game.

I'm relatively confident Nono is town, particularly for my reasoning here:

Part of my reason for townreading Nono is that I have a feeling Nono as a player would feel bad for their teammates with their dunkbaity style of play if they were scum, so are far less likely to bus Wey in the way that they did, considering they're unlikely to endgame themselves with their playstyle.

Casey, the hammer itself was bad, but the fact they hammered regardless of you stating that makes it slightly towny imo.

Pls no kill the nono

[Marksman]

Look at that innocent face, guys; there's no way this can be scum.

[Marksman]

Nono, vote for Hiraki when you come online pls

[Marksman]

kek xD

[Marksman]

That hurt me

[Marksman]

[Marksman]

@Casey - What changed your mind from declaring Marksman/Nono as your locktown reads that you were never voting?

@inno - Why the combos of Raya/Almo and Mark/Hiraki specifically?

[Marksman]

Lavender's likely scum if Hiraki is. Hiraki pointed it out himself interestingly enough:

my TR of lav actually died a lot considering there was no vote on me or nono considering that lav has said i was scummy before and nono was town. but it's moreso that there was no vote rather than the reads

We’re running out of time ah that’s scary _o—< I don’t know don’t know don’t know

Acknowledges we're running out of time but doesn't vote for either.

Ehhh I didn’t know if voting Nono woulda still hammered, I was still in school you knows? Couldn’t check who Isis had voted. O.o

What do you mean here, Lav? Why did you have to vote Nono there, wouldn't Hiraki make more sense considering you were sus of him and liked Nono?

[Marksman]

I still want Hiraki today if that wasn't clear.

[Marksman]

mostly because it's so unlikely that every single scum was off the wey wagon given that slot's scumminess and the fact that he was the leading wagon

?
Given the slot's scuminess, it's possible the wagon was natural and all town, and managed to beat out the scumdriven counterwagon(s). The assumption of at least 1 scum being on the Wey wagon is really arbitrary.

Also, scum keeping each other alive in nightless is important. You always end up with a couple or more of obvtownies that scum can never misdunk or nightkill in nightless games, so it's all the more important to keep everyone around and gain parity earlier. I think there's unlikely to be more than 1 scum on the Wey wagon, and I could see there being 0.

[Marksman]

FoS: Raya OR A50
FoS: Hiraki OR Marksman

You gonna explain these?

[Marksman]

Scum doesn't enter this game with the mindset of bussing a partner day 1. It depends on their competence level, but at this point I assume scum knows that you need to be very anti-bus in nightless. Yeah, scum could've hopped on for towncred later, or had a vote linger from early that they couldn't justify removing, but there's a significant chance of no scum being on it in a game like this. Like, it's not the most likely scenario; most likely is we have 1+ scum on there, I agree, but it's not negligible at all.

[Marksman]

Hiraki, Lavender, and 1 of Raya/Almo is what makes sense to me right now

[Marksman]

Which is actually no one on the Wey wagon

Surviving members of the Wey wagon are Casey, inno, Isis, and I.

[Marksman]

I townread Isis though, so I disagree. You're treating 0 scum being on the wagon like it has a 0% chance, when it should be more of a 10 to 40% chance or whatever.

[Marksman]

Hiraki, Lavender, and 1 of Raya/Almo is what makes sense to me right now

i don't hate this team if you think they could've all stayed off with some small chance.

Yeah, I like all 3 of the others individually. Probably wrong with how things are going so far, but there's a chance lul

[Marksman]

She had fresh takes every time she came to the thread. Like, nuanced thoughts that I think are hard to fake. One I can remember now is that read on Nono being town because they'd want to hammer or something along those lines early on.

Anyways, I'm retiring for the night. Marathon continues tomorrow.

[Marksman]

Inno is right that we have extremely little time left and we need to dunk again

right now

. The fact this game ends over a weekend is also extremely inconvenient.

No way in Ruby Red am I for this "handing all power of the dunks to Casey and Inno" though. Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?

This game can still be won, but people need to start voting like this instant.

[Marksman]

Raya, you've said multiple times now that you can't see yourself voting anyone but Hiraki, so then why aren't you voting him yet??

Inno, same with you, you gave a general sentiment of cutting your ties with him or implying you think he could be scum, so put your vote down.

[Marksman]

just to clarify:

letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.
letting town collectively decide with this much time left is PROBABLY SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE THAN RANDOM.

for reference (using the same simulation i talked about earlier):

random is 70% assuming me and Casey are town
random is 40% assuming Casey is town

so at this point i am against anyone deciding any more elims except casey. sorry.

That's if Casey is town. I townread her, but letting her decide the dunks is strictly worse than going for who I think is scum, unless I think I am absolutely garbage at mafia.

P-edit: It's possible but we just need to super speed up and completely go for it. Like, what's our alternative here?

[Marksman]

No way in Ruby Red am I for this "handing all power of the dunks to Casey and Inno" though. Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?

i think you are delusional if you are town here and you think we can just talk out 5 dunks in less than 2 days and hope that 3 scum doesn't influence the town to win way less often than normal.

I'm going for the solve I said earlier, that's like the last hope I'm clinging to for saving this game. If it's correct, and with twilight time added by Ruby Red, we can dunk in time and win this game.

[Marksman]

I really think we should just go for it. Stalling on dunking Hiraki for even longer only assures the loss via the timer. I think he flips scum here, and going from 3/5 to 2/5 is a big deal, if you're worried about scum having too large of a voice for influencing the dunks.

[Marksman]

[Marksman]

I haven't got much time to play this weekend, inno, and you're confusing my confidence in my own abilities and my idea of fun with scuminess. Personally, I have much more fun in mafia if my voice and opinion matters and I can find scum and get them dunked. Giving someone all of the power suddenly makes my voice mean much less, it's less fun. If there was a game with an IC revealed at the start, I would hate if we just sheeped whatever dunks they wanted; that's barely mafia, and this situation is even less secure since we can't be sure of Casey's alignment.

Everyone's agreed with this plan anyway, so what can you do. Carry us to victory, Casey.

[Marksman]

IMO scum often show their true colors as the situation gets worse and worse for town and their win gets more imminent. Their activity frequently drops off, they care less about the game, there's literally no need to put in the effort anymore when it looks like town just self-destructs.

I think Marksman and A50 are fitting this paradigm well.

This isn't true at all, I've been trying to get town to do stuff whenever I'm online.

[Marksman]

I might have some time at the end of this day, that'll hopefully be after we see the flip.

[Marksman]

Good job on that turn around, town! I lost the will to effort in the last few days, but overall it was quite fun. Isis and Almo were great for us to manage to get to DuLo in the first place.

He has a good style but the problem was that his style never changed throughout the game. The hustle, scramble, and emotional high of DuLo paranoia was lacking to the extreme.

Very true. I really should've tried to fake some of that. You were so obvtown with how you'd be constantly switching your votes and having new thoughts out of paranoia.

Oh, and I will never underestimate you again, inno. Who knew you had like 4 new final forms.

[Marksman]

Oh, and great job modding as always, NSG. Can't believe you didn't ask me whether I wanted a hydra PT this time.