Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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I thought we were supposed to confirm our actual role LOL then I realized it was public and I was like ehhh whatever
Anyway I feel I should be cleared because obviously I wouldn't "confirm VT" to the mod if I'm actually mafia goon.
And I'll claim it publicly in the thread... I'm a VANILLA TOWNIE.
1st suspect, cleared!
UNVOTE: innocentvillager
1 down, 9 to go!-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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In post 28, Isis wrote:I see what you did thereFoS: Isis
Town: Hiraki
UNVOTE: Hiraki
2 down, 8 to go!-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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In post 31, Isis wrote:So it's kind of selfish.FoS: Isis-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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this is pretty scummy ngl
+1-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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+1In post 47, Isis wrote:Wanting to sheep a slot and thinking it is town aren't always in lockstep. Sometimes I want to sheep stops until it seems they aren't finding me scum then kill them if I think it's a good player.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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yes, you're right! I am voting 4 scum and 7 townies :/
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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LOL WTFIn post 101, Chemical Elements wrote:I have an idea on how to figure some things out, but it only works if innocentvillager flips mafia. If he doesn't flip mafia, I am at a loss.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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Hm, this is interesting, I agreeSupreme Leader wrote:No it 100% has to do with your alignment. Please tell me what he was suspicious of and why when he didn't post anything. He literally cannot be suspicious. That is a townie mindset. You decided to try and rip his words apart as if they had meaning no matter what he was saying. That is a scum mindset.
Hmm, I agree with this, very interestingSupreme Leader wrote:You are assuming WyounsLastClone would even give an answer that isn't utterly ridiculous.
Yes, I find your words convincing, very good analysis thank youSupreme Leader wrote:That is what I said.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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I like this point a lot, I resonate with it and can get behind this very interestingIn post 110, Hiraki wrote:
No, I don't think you immediately assume it. I think you go back, think about it for a second, and then put it all together. Instead, I believe you saw an opportunity, seized it, and tried to get something with it. I won't allow it though. One is trying to solve the puzzle to get the right answer, the other is trying to get a lynch on whomever (eventually). You reek of the later.In post 107, Marksman wrote:@Hiraki - I do think that's a stretch actually if you're suggesting I should've immediately assumed that. You're putting words in his mouth.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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yes, it's a terrible question! I completely agree, we have similar thoughts indeedIn post 108, Hiraki wrote:Because it's a terrible question. Feel free to tell me what other answer Wey could give here that isn't utter ridiculous. The people haven't posted clearly his 'suspicion' is because they haven't posted. Pressure to post and suspicion due to not posting are the same thing in this scenario, especially with a vote.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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why did you unvote me when Chemical Elements said something scummy and not vote Chemical Elements
i don't understand!!-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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how do you feel about hellbook's most recent sequence?In post 134, Marksman wrote:Nono's nulltown because of this sequence. They say I'm town and then come back 20min later to say they changed their mind. town do these kind of consecutive posts where they change their mind with no posts from others between them more often than scum do.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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yeah we should just elim someone pretty soon if it's me oh well at least that gives info, i feel like ME'ing isn't as costly here as in normal games. and it doesn't matter that much anyway. time management is really important and if we just waste all our time d1 scum will just drag and coast this out-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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Did you even iso spicer. Tell me that is a scum ISO.
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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lol I’m obviously trollingIn post 316, Almost50 wrote:Explain your exact thought process here. When was the last game you played in which you were supposed to confirm your ROLE in the main thread???-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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That WAS my explanation lol, sorry if my sarcasm doesn't come across well lol (I mean I didn't get your sarcasm either that one time).In post 349, Marksman wrote:Your lack of trying to explain or question me on the difference is what I don't like
I'm just going to be honest and say that at this point lack of activity is a scumtell because we are stalling this to death
And lack of activity is separate from having like less than 3 posts, I mean the people who are just barely keeping up with posting or posted a lot near the beginning and haven't done much recently (assuming no wagon on them)
I just want to flip someone, probably WLC.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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Marksman wrote:
I just realized you were talking about spicer here. How on earth is that a towny entrance post?In post 305, innocentvillager wrote:townie entrance post and zero activity with a huge wagon on him on page 13. Is that almost ever a scum slotcan't say I didn't clarify this for you.
It's a great entrance post that scum is unlikely to make, just sit there for the rest of the game without any additional posts and let their inevitable wagon run up
Inactivity is a scumtell but not like... this kind of inactivity-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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Too scummy to be scum IS A TOWNTELL if there is no scum motivation for the action.In post 361, Marksman wrote:Too scummy to be scum-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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their buddies would probably at least divert the leading wagon elsewhere or call spicer LHFIn post 361, Marksman wrote:Also, who's gonna defend Spicer when there's literally nothing to defend?-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivor
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you are not the first person to mistake this post, I was referring to spicer here not Nono.
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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ehh idk anymore about this it’s a plausible town process but it’s pretty superficial and forgeable too :/
Idk still think this slot is likely town-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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nvm I changed my mind againIn post 396, innocentvillager wrote:ehh idk anymore about this it’s a plausible town process but it’s pretty superficial and forgeable too :/
Idk still think this slot is likely town-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i have no idea how we're going to win this game honestly if we still haven't dunked someone...
We need to dunk like... 10-12 people probably to reasonably win
We don't need to be worried about chain dunking unless it's close to lylo and we have two wagons at L-1 because twilight freezes until modflip and we will obviously dunk anyone who is hammering right after the flip because that is scum motivated-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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Yeah just because someone has a different idea of how to play this doesn't mean they're scum (??), I can't really understand this line of thought, I also think town needs to dunk someone ASAP to start getting associations.In post 414, Almost50 wrote:
Rushing the first elimination is almost always one. It denies people the chance to develop their reads and consider different possibilities. If it was up to me I'd say we eliminate around the 6th day and then every 18-24 hours from then on, but I don't own the thread and I can't force my theories on everyone else.In post 348, Marksman wrote:How exactly is that a scumclaim?
Not necessarily?? There could be scum, but also the absence of any defense, redirection,In post 416, Almost50 wrote:
Are you saying ALL scum (or at least 3) were on it at it's peak??In post 359, innocentvillager wrote:and not a soul other than me is defending the spicer wagon which has been sitting at L-2.
He's not a troll, it's not difficult to briefly meta him to figure this outIn post 417, Almost50 wrote:
Inexperienced scum, or players known to be trolls. Now I dunno about Spicer so can't call them a troll, and can't tell if they're good at scum either, so I considered that entrance NAI.In post 360, innocentvillager wrote:like what scum comes in late and goes "HURR DURR I'M LATE WHO SHOULD I WAGON GUYS" and just ghosts the game without anything else
The more inexperienced he is the less likely he is to post something like this
Like I GET that it doesn't look like there's much on my spicer townread. I get it, he made one post, and everyone's like "lol wtf there's no case he made one post". I don't really want to go into the spicer townread again, I feel like I've restated it in multiple ways already with different points overlapping in different posts. You can tell a LOT not just from posting but using that in conjunction with game/wagon dynamics, assessing the presence (or lack thereof) of baseline motivations, etc. to get alignment tells from lurkers. And fwiw I would argue that people have been read for WAY less in this game. I get that town!Isis and town!Marksman might think I have extra info on spicer's alignment - at first I thought it was superficial but the more I thought about it the more I think that the whiteknighting hypothesis is a plausible town process.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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I'll just say (so I can come back to this theory later ifneedbe) if I was scum leader I would organize it such that some of us are lurky and 1-2 are really active and try to be townread. It's a good hedge because if the town swings one way or the other (towards going after high activity posters vs. low activity posters) scum is still likely to win
It's nice for coasters to get by the first few elims, then have some big townread figure that infiltrates to the end
Basically if we just have 2 innocent children and then we launch in some random order I feel like town wins a vast majority of the time. If scum infiltrates the innocent children or can manipulate the elim order to hit the wincon beforehand they win-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i did some math for fun because I was curious. If we use the strategy above, we win about 86.6% assuming the elim order is random and the ICs are both town. Assuming scum has some influence in the elim order, we could model that by assuming they get two MEs for free so in that case we win 78.5% of the time. If scum is in the ICs we win 0% obviously. So a pessimistic estimate of our winrate is P(we choose two town ICs) * 78.5%. If we were to pick the ICs completely randomly we would have a 50-50 shot (10/14*9/13=49.5%), so under the random elim order we're 42.8% to win and under the not-so-random elim order we'd be 38.8% to win. Which actually feels not bad.
I'm not saying we should use this strategy because obviously people will object, adverse selection, etc. But it's a fun baseline to know-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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