Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[word321]

here we go agaaaaaaain
VOTE: piisirattional

[word321]

hey mara long time no see

[word321]

yeah, there r six of us pal

[word321]

oh, ya r the gal from 1999 aint ya

[word321]

I see u r letting the best scum for last, wise choice

[word321]

OH GOD, 1992, 1998, 2002 AND 2007
what the fuck is wrong with u pal

[word321]

u literally have 100% scum rate

[word321]

VOTE: Marashu
u broke math

[word321]

oh, the wildcard and the jester showed up
I dnt think neither BM nor CJ have too many alignment indicative things this early by style alone

[word321]

unlike deimos, I dnt blv even distribution is good for psychological reasons, and I dnt think there is a correltation btw voting for oneself and resistance to outside pressure
I do think it is easier to wagon and it is harder to lynch the first wagons tho

[word321]

tuxedo/drew is a good guess at this point for page 5

[word321]

there is no such a thing as good guess on page 5 tho

[word321]

I would like pressure on pi for similar reasons.

I like this one in particular, Im confident it is easier to catch pi the earlier we get a gameview from him from past experiences

[word321]

I inherently dislike deimos style cause I feel it is rly easy to disguise over logic and optimal game style, unfortunaly that is not relevant in an alignment way, so Im forced to initially reject a sdcum hypothesis until further notice; for now, I think he lays down a good foundation (or act like he is doing as scum, wich still is good advice one way or the other)

[word321]

VOTE: Midari Ikishima
I want to see u break
U should rly begin worrying and stop voting urself and those kind of nonsenses
That should be L-2 if Im not mistaken

[word321]

Voting ceejay is cool.
Last time I played with him he was scum and I put him last on my PoE. Massive L.

except that was not the only time u played with cj; on Newbie 1998 u also played with cj, he opened the game with a oneliner vote and u opened the game late commenting about every player except cj, wich was town on that ocasion, so Im inclined to blv u r indeed aquatained enough with his playstyle to know his attitude is not alignment indicative nor will u get anything more for voting this early that guy. It is also a fact that effectiveness and optimality of a player r most of the time not related to his alignment too, so that is hardly an argument to heighten the scummness of a raw vote. So where does ur fixation for cj come from, rly?

[word321]

na, he was waitin for someone to unvote or call him out, or vote
it is misorientating to vote for someone else without unvoting and then vote again
at this point given the way he interacted with potato and this, Id rather say he inclines to the town side of things for now

[word321]

Can someone humor me with the case on Tux?

His votes and participation have mostly lacked intent to search; overstaying jokes and voting and unvoting without actual intent to investigate something and generate a reaction of sorts is generally a bad thing when we r getting out of rvs, although there r notorious exceptions like 205. Although it is not certain that staying too much on thye joke is alignment indicative per se, it is completely certain that making him commit more on investigation will lead us to a better time figuring his actual alignment, as we'll have more content.

[word321]

either way, I still dnt buy completely deimos attitude. I feel the particular questions he has made r too generic in nature, too general, and easily replicable as scum to feign an investigation of sorts (im talkin about things like 48, 168 and 173 as the most generic, others can be replicable). Im also not convinced of the actual intent behind the even distribution of votes; do u have any game when u have openly upheld such an opinion?
VOTE: Deimos
ninjaed by the above

[word321]

what about superbowl?

[word321]

do u think that commentary is ai indicative then?

[word321]

ai indicative

Department Of Redundancy Department

[word321]

pi was a good votedump, and not rly an optimal wagon; i do think mara is better on that regard

[word321]

but im worried about something else: why does tuxedo has so few attention comparatively, when he has been suspected at largers periods of time from way more ppl?

[word321]

in fact, why havent yall considered a transition to tuxedo instead of mara?
as far as im aware, it was on ur nominal scum read, deimos; id like to hear ur current opinion on the matter

[word321]

him never getting a srious wagon is kind of weird tbh, when the alternative was pi at the time

[word321]

specially since a 4 poster arrived at a whoping L-2 24 hrs after his last post in a succesion of 230, 238 and 240 (being BM, superbowl and cj)

[word321]

actually
VOTE: superbowl
i didnt comment in deep at the time (i did feint on 276) but his vote on 238 is terrible; it seems he is trying to justify his hop, and ends up way too artifitial, as in trying to justify an attitude he is taking on an otherwise "weird way". I am doubting ur honesty here, sir.

[word321]

pi havent posted for 3 days, i dnt think we r hearing from him on the near time.

i can wrap my hear around ur change of perception on tuxedo for his development since 237. but I still think superbowls vote wasnt exactly rvs. I did the exact same thing on This post of Large Normal 227; and a simple glance at his topics on the site indicate a lack of mafia pts, wich means few or none experience with scum (at least on this site).

[word321]

ok, tuxedo may be town; i rly dnt see that being pulled out by scum

[word321]

being paranoid thiniking of pr baiting due to a reference to other game, and being consistent with the push on it executed by scum?
i find it hard to pull that as scum; it dsnt only consist of actually considering the pr component (wich is harder by scum, since they know they rnt actually mean intended) but to base ur vote on a rly weak "excuse" and being consistent with it; on the town case the actual paranoia is what fuels it, similar tp how scums paranoia make them oversesitive to reactions. thats why i think its more townindicative than anything else.

sure, maybe it is possible to pull as scum; but it definetly is harder, and depends on multiple layers (identifiying possible pr hunt->fake paranoia->voting on that alone), so it naturally leans town.

[word321]

L-1

[word321]

not L-2

[word321]

pressure

only worls if he has an opportunity to talk

[word321]

and i dnt think there is a strong enough case or a lack of new information just to end the day rn

[word321]

only works*

[word321]

I beg tp differ
I want to lynch midari at this point tbh
VOTE: Midari Ikishima

[word321]

but first I still want to hear from marashu
and while we r at it, brass herald should give a take after coming back from vla

[word321]

i dnt like the apologies and transition to worc after the L-1 thing

[word321]

do u think newbtowns take the initiative on the hunt on the second most suspicious person after a mistake of that caliber, not taken it on that magnitude previously on the game?

[word321]

Player List
piisirattional
Battle Mage
Marashu
Deimos27
votato
ceejayvinoya
brassherald
superbowl9
Midari Ikishima
Worcestershire
word321
Doctor Drew
Tuxedo Mask

and about the hider thing, a quick way to do it is the hider aiming for the player next to him on the player list; that way, everyone has a possibility of being hid upon, assuming uniform distribution (the odd of a hider being behind u given u r not the tracker is 1/12)

[word321]

I beg tp differ
I want to lynch midari at this point tbh
VOTE: Midari Ikishima

why?

the first wagon pinged me wrong. recend development is no better.

[word321]

give me a sec and i can make a case

[word321]

and it completely nerfs the investigative power of the hider.

why? he dies upon contact. how can that be nerfed? its literally unavoidable as scum

[word321]

lets say we reduce the pool to a limited number of players, less than 13, the current proposal. lets exagerate it to 1. if the hider dies upon its target being killed,

what would scum do?

[word321]

u can trade off the hiders survaibility for targeting "scumread ppl" (i personally dnt like the idea for having heavy influx of 3 scum on chat, and the general scum perception on D1 semingly rotating to activity, a reason the absence of herald is kind of weird); but remember if the hider dnt dies, 100% chance of town.

[word321]

i havent forgotten the case on midari, still working on that.

[word321]

Words town with a bad vote.

I take that back.

What cop capabilities?

Also word why is there a tracker and not a vig?

it is hider; my mistake. 1/12 given u r not the hider, 0 if u r.
what makes u think im town?

[word321]

did u said im town and then took it back on the same post? do u think im town or not for the usefulness on that idea alone?

[word321]

nash is american, potato is danish

[word321]

upon the unfotunate departure of the hider, we still conserve the infp of conftown (specially if we use a pattern like 2 slots after u in the list for d2, etc)

[word321]

Im back from Hiatus

[word321]

24 hgours of fun worktime

[word321]

So, the thing with midari.


For starters, lets analyze something that has been quite hammered by midari along the game (this is a selection of posts to show a view of the player, and not necessarily representative of every single one; go ISO her if u want that):

Spoiler:

The lack of engagement with the game, despite there already being content to discuss,

and voting outside the leading wagons. These things are off-putting to me.

I would say sorry but we both know what is happening here. Also why does it feel like there are a lot of just fluff in this game?

I like pressure on ceejay here because he showed up for one RVS vote on what I perceive to be a suboptimal target, and then proceeded to disappear. I would like pressure on pi for similar reasons.

I was going to ask the same thing where did Pii run off to?

Right now I have an issue with 3 people not saying much in this game.

There is nothing to really go off of and

VOTE: Pii
Is the biggest currently. I have a small townblock and just from how events have been happening. But those can be changed later.

But for now if anyone wants to know one Deimos is just town. At least 6 pages in but that could be a biased look as I read thru

Maybe I'm just biased. But the case on Tux just seems a bit reachy and nothing more then a lost person in this game which does strike as different from what I've seen from them.

I think Pii and Wors need to talk more. I agree with Brass I don't like others answering questions that aren't directed at them.


What are your other reads Tux?

what about superbowl?

What about them? I tend to forget about people not actively playing the game. I could say the same for Pii and Wors as well.

The way the conversation has drifted away from tuxedo mask is slightly concerning, though perhaps there is nothing more to be discussed about him.

You can bring it back but I believe they are a null read due to this being their first time out of the kiddie pool if I'm not mistaken. I don't like their pressure that was faux on Doctor Drew and finding out the alignment of one player so quickly does draw suspicious pings from me.

This was your wagon at its peak (correct me if I'm wrong), so I'll pose this question to the group is scum on this wagon. I think that's likely. If so, who and how many? My gut says just one, between Marshu and Word. That or the wagon looked to carry it's self well enough, and scum wanted to avoid it.

I haven't sorted Marashu out yet roughly a null read at the moment. Word does seem scummy for other reasons and I don't believe there was more then one on my wagon. You could say Drew could be scum for the hop back onto it after not liking me posting anime gifs. I'm

Fos: word

For the moment but I'm much happier and interested in Pii due to just not really doing much thus far and raising questions.

Wors, Mara (Not sold on), Pii, superbowl9, I want to hear more from votato as well.

I also do not like that there are 5 people who haven't said much in over a day or two in one case and wonders their takes as well

What's up?

I'd appreciate it if someone can give me an unbiased tl;dr

People be lurking.

People be V/LA

People town read Demios and Votato I think.
Marashu is scum.

VOTE: Marashu

It's self explanatory

We see a heavy, heavy emphasis on Lurkers that spans multiple days and almost characterizes her choices of scum. Being observant of lurkers? Ok, thats alright. But reiterating over and over, and being otherwise deflective with other more active players?
That last point is easily seen. There r generally nominal accusations to other slots (myself included); but they generally lack the combative nature she sure loves to show to the lurkers, and is in principle more reflective. There is almos no direct confrontation, and there are some nominal questions -like what r ur takes and whatnots- withpout a real evaluation on that direction; she hasnt made ANY questions to my slot despite me being a possible suspect twice, and confronted upon small commentaries there is only silence.

Now, everyone nows mafia is a game of confidence and probabilities -I cant exactly say she is outside what could be a town spectrum- but this r precedents and indicatives. Lurkers r universally hated if not in relation to an specific meta (like Votato or CJs); not only that, they usually can take a punch but rarely returns one, specially on the case of newbie slots like Pi and Worc, the most heavily affected. Interesting here that a great deal of pressure on Nash has been dropped-wich is compatible with town if she rly only goes after lurkers, but reflects the core principle of mainly going against them.
And there is a rly good explanation from the point of view of scum to do that; its an exelent way to motivate almost irrelevant wagons that ends in vote dumps, deflect to a player, and apparent aggresivity-wich is usually associated with town- without the associated risks of such a behavior.

So J'accuse Midari of playing it safe.


On the other side, we have reactions to other plyers, and reaction on moments of pressure:

Spoiler:

I like pressure on ceejay here because he showed up for one RVS vote on what I perceive to be a suboptimal target, and then proceeded to disappear. I would like pressure on pi for similar reasons.

I was going to ask the same thing where did Pii run off to?

Right now I have an issue with 3 people not saying much in this game.

There is nothing to really go off of and

VOTE: Pii
Is the biggest currently. I have a small townblock and just from how events have been happening. But those can be changed later.

But for now if anyone wants to know one Deimos is just town. At least 6 pages in but that could be a biased look as I read thru

What's up?

I'd appreciate it if someone can give me an unbiased tl;dr

People be lurking.

People be V/LA

People town read Demios and Votato I think.
Marashu is scum.

VOTE: Marashu

It's self explanatory

L-1

I didn't see the hidden vote from Worchest

Honestly how long are you going to waffle and not put any thoughts down.

VOTE: Worch
It's getting to a point where you are just coasting thru it feels.

Here r some interesting things. The context on the moves on pi r on the height of the first wagon; there is a prior knowledge of intention to go against pi from deimos, and there is a direct transition to a vote here. Now, again, this can be done as town; but this was actually the way the wagon on pii began. Interesting too the first interaction with votato and the self vote-it is indeed a good alternative as scum to do, as it paralyzes a good deal of the traction the pressure on the wagon can make, if not the wagon itself- and the soft tell of townleaning ppl attacking her on votatos first interaction. Again, precedence.
I think the transition to marashu was in the context of rvs, and motivated by interactions more than anything else; by the way she explained it, it is entirely based on Battle Mages first argument. This could be in the context to gather town vibes from other players; and there is also the factor of the L-1. BMs recollection of posts is not actually Marashus ISO and is specially skewed in favor of omitting more srious scumhunting posts; so she may not even have read marashus iso, wich is a bad sign (cause again, she herself is not generating the content, but using from other ppl, and from popular opinion).

Finally, we have a rerun of midaris first wagon when the thing with the L-1 happens; the first reaction is again to reflect to a lurker, wich again cant rly return the punch, on the figure of worc. Her post shows some selfconciousness about the situation, independent of the amount of real or imaginary danger she was actually in. Noticeble is the fact that this r the only 2 instances she actually takes initiative in the formation of a wagon, and coincide with the perception of her alignment being called into question.

So Midari, Jaccuse u of being deflective.


A final conclusion, a part of the behavior can always have some other explanations; shge being a newb (wich I dnt think it is the case by there being evidence of she being an alt); hunting lurkers not beign exactly exclusive to scum or whatnots, there being actual interaction outside that scope (there WAS iteraction with Drew and Tuxedo), etc. But overall I think the series of events r heavily inclined to the scum posibility more than town, more than other players to this moment; mafia is a game of probabilities. So:
Midari, Jaccuse u of being scum.

Noticable is the fact we rly havent heard much about brassherald or cj from her, being in a similar position.

[word321]

So I don't know how to engage with this game, because apparently everything I've said recently isn't even worth addressing from most players. People wanna give me the rundown of Midari and Marashu and why I should choose one over the other?

I swear, this was a coincidence. But feel freee to talk. Give ur take on the game. Who looks suspicious or overly opportunistic?

[word321]

From my part, I think I already have a good grasp more or less on the playerbase.
There is a thing with CJ, Votato, and BM; the three of them play and embrace their metas; that makes them more inherently null slots. But there r some things that can be pointed out:

Potato has had a town vibe in him. Particularly in 500 he was somewhat right; I am not above using apparently town strategies to hide scum intent in it. Particularly, there is a flaw on the plan; clustering. From the point of view of a hider, the odds of getting anyone independent of whom u choose is 3/12 alright. But from the point of view of scum, the same probability is 3/12; but if the hider always choose the one below him, and scum is clustered (that is, there are 2 scum on the list on succesion, or 3) then the odds of a hider getting scum with such an strategy would descend from 3/12 to 2/12 or 1/12 with a clustering of 2 or 3. BMs "alteration" of choosing above instead of below doesnt solve this problem; clustering is independent of that.
A solution would be to do something else instead of a 1-cycle; anything from a 2 to 6 cycle for above or below would theoretically solve the problem if the one choosing it is not scum. Or write a program to select a closed random cycle. Solutions r plenty; but neither of them r as simple. Sine im not scum, I dnt rly care, casue I myself dnt know if there is clustering or not (or the equivalent 2-clustering, 3-clustering, etc), so it becomes irrelevant; but as scum, if in presence of scum, I would have done the same thing.
Potato has seen previously this behavior on me, and I have gone as far as faking probabilities to favor one party; so this behavior in particular is towny in him.
Of course, this is not an excuse for blabering about theory in probabilities, of course! But rly, as scum I wouldnt monopolize my priviledged position going titanic on my own strategy only for pride, specially if it indirectly gives the position of 1 or 2 possible partners. But point for votato! (I dnt think he saw the flaw of the strategy, but the flaw of the person behind it, and that is good, cause he attacked a position that otherwise would have no reason to being suspected upon by a real concern).

About BM, Im inclined to null, with some inherent worries. BM is playing too to his meta, and he is not above building townblocs and whatnots. He can play well the game, and I blv he has done so at least in one newbie in the past from what ive seen. But lets stop for a moment: BM is supposedly good at scum, but always gives suicidal acts and whatnots wich can cost the game as town. U cannot do that if u want to win as scum; in this game, he had the initial no lytnch vote, the joke on votato and thats it. Both r 2 good defnsible positions (wich was applied with marashu, and was lamented upon not being able to apply with on his nolynch vote). This gives me paranoia; I definetly dnt have the townvibe everyone has. I think he is playing to his meta, but otherwise the possibility of being scum is pretty much real. The overall conclusion is a null for now, dependant of further development.

This is part of a series of gives made by Word321. He is tired of writing so much. U can request a player or group of players by demand.

[word321]

This is part of a series of gives made by Word321. He is tired of writing so much. U can request a player or group of players by demand.

This is part of

an ongoing series of reads

made by Word321. He is tired of writing so much. U can request a player or group of players by demand.

[word321]

oh, hey looker

[word321]

should i feel guilty about midari?

[word321]

oh penguinsempai joined the game

[word321]

Word, as someone who is a card carrying member of the 'artist formally know as Midari is scum' fan club, which I see you are as well.

*initiate secret handshake*

But, opinions on Mara wagon? I have only been lightly skimming, but I find it odd that solid players like Deimos and Super are on a competing wagon.

I will say, I need to go back and look at the reasoning behind the Mara wagon, and maybe I have my blinders on, but The Artist Formally Known as Midari seems obvscum.

Ill address this

[word321]

maras wagon is interesting to some degree; i have purposely avoided going indeep with opinions onj mara, since its dynamic is insightful and mara himself does indeed need more push to his slot. even now his response wasnt exactly satisfactory; specifically I dnt rly like the change of tone towards BMs slot. Having said that, i never saw an

offensive

or

terminally scummy

lack of scumhunting on marashu, and Ive liked some of his posts previous to BMs accusation and after it; I do thing a wagon was useful. In that regard, I dnt find particularly suspicious the first accusation from BM and Deimos towards their respective slots, specially since tunneling is a meta characteristic for BM.

What I do rly find interesting however about the wagon r the

dynamics

around it; first, independent of the actual scumsiness of Mara (wich I dnt find particularly big to be honest, as Ive said before), for a lot of time it rly felt like most of the opinions of the game were akin to that; that BM had a strong case with deimos, and all that. The wagon too gained traction too fast, traction that culminated with the 2 votes from worc and midari, that lead to a L-1; Ive already said it, but again, most of the traction was induced by a perception that BM had a strong case, wich is inherently suspicious. When confronted, midaris reaction was suspicious; but yet again, there was a lot of reticence to explore that posibility (from players like superbowl and deimos), or at least to leave the wagon; by dynamics alone, this is another sounding bell, wich motivates the further push on the slot.
Resuming things, maras wagon was easy to stay on, and the only actual argument necessary for was quoting BM; on the other hand, I may be biased with midari/penguin, but it wasw strange it not catching that much attention.

Finally, about ppl on the wagon, this thing is completely irrelevant withou a flip on penguin. Penguin is the summiest of em all, but not a sure scum; upon a red flip, THEN we can rly begin to talk, and given the current situation, I would instantly go first and foremost for a superbowl here. But yet, this is still a moot point.

[word321]

I got not much at the moment. I think the Midari case looks good, I guess I just feel weird that game keeps coming back 'round to that. I don't know if that's just because they're obvscum, or real scum really wants to push their mislynch. I'm going to check if there are any reoccurring presences on their wagon.

thats somewhat artifitial; its bc it keeps getting off tracks into mara; that itself is weird.

[word321]

actually, forget about the shit on midari; I want a case on mara. Ive heard BM, now I want superbowl looker and worc. Another take of deimos once he sort things out would be great.

[word321]

why is mara scum? bonus points if u dnt quote BM, but make ur own quotes.

[word321]

an explanation on ur vision of midaris slot, now penguin, would be great too.

[word321]

town: votato, word, drew, deimos?, BM, marashu?, midari?

PoE: {pi, cj, brass, superbowl, worce, tuxedo}

u think there r 2 competing town wagons?

[word321]

if so, would scum be on both, one, or none?

[word321]

GOD JACKSON

[word321]

u gave me a fcking heart attack!

[word321]

I thought

I

was banned!

[word321]

not a word as in a grammatical word!

[word321]

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=83525

[word321]

it wasnt specifically to u, penguinsempai

[word321]

haha
but rly, that freaked me out

[word321]

i thought he needed to change the votecount since he had banned me or something like that with the redacted, and just then I casually saw the announcement

[word321]

it was indeed a funny coincidence

[word321]

well well, potato
answer 680
it is relevant to the plot

[word321]

If MafiaScum was ruled by 1 Pure Deity Individual such as myself.
Lynch - Gone
votato - Gone
us politics thread - Gone
Mafia - Gone
People giving 0s to epb in SUPP - Gone

It’d be so peaceful.

What did u do to this poor soul potato

[word321]

for yall having health problems, good luck; I hope yall get well soon.

[word321]

now, I guess its time to answer superbowl

[word321]

Spoiler:

On marashu:

1. Much of his posting seems bare-bones and simply states obvious facts or puts out reads with little evidence/reasoning. Can you name 3 things Marashu has contributed to the game so far? I'm not sure i could name one.

2. There's been a wagon on him since pg. 14. Over 350 posts, 5 Marashu posts (that activity lol), and not 1 word discussing his own wagon/voters, even when others have been curious as to the case on him? Seems very "If I ignore this pressure maybe it will go away" imo, and I can't see town thinking that.

3. Contradiction: he votes a random slot to "apply more pressure", yet his own activity/defense has been lacking/nonexistent despite having a wagon on him for half of D1. If you value game contributions, why put out bare-bones content and naked reads? Expanding on this note, he seems willing to ask basic questions or for explanation of reads, but has yet to explain *any* of his own reads without prompting. Usually if you are asking others to explain you'd explain at least a few of your own reads instead of just throwing stuff out there, no?

4. Terrible votes: after 2 RVS votes, votes Tuxedo only after being prompted by deimos, and keeps that vote there for almost the rest of the day. Then unvotes because he's "come around". Then out of nowhere votes Nash to "apply pressure"??? That vote's got less pressure than a flat tire. If he actually wanted to apply some pressure, wouldn't he be explaining himself and lobbying for people to join him? He's essentially been sitting on either TM (applied so much pressure with E-5) or no one for the entire day.

Spoiler:

I do enjoy that you can use "dynamic and insightful" logic to townread Marashu

If you've not seen a terminal lack of scumhunting, I do think you're actively trying to townread this slot for one reason or another. Yes, Marashu will take the first step in scumhunting, but what helpful interactions has he produced? What pressure is he creating? It's essentially going through the motions.

midaris reaction was suspicious; but yet again, there was a lot of reticence to explore that posibility (from players like superbowl and deimos)

The case for town Midari has been made a bunch of times, yet you act as though Deimos and I just couldn't get a grasp on just how "obviously scummy" her reaction was lol? Also this case doesn't work because I can say you (puts on monacle) "have been quite reticent in hopping on the Marashu wagon good sir!" Sounds ridiculous, right? Especially since you just made the case for Marshu being town

maras wagon was easy to stay on, and the only actual argument necessary for was quoting BM

If I wanted an easy wagon to stay on, I'd join you on PP You also act as though BM's post is the only reason anyone was on the wagon? Although I agree with BM, as you've just seen I have my own reasons to suspect him, and I'm sure others do as well - no one is just sheeping here lol (okay maybe worchestire).

Final point, in 610 you dismissed the Midari noob town/too scummy to be scum argument. I have an issue with this because to deny that noobs/VIs should be treated differently from any other player just encourages easy mislynches. You can't hold Midari or worchestire to the same standard you would hold a Deimos or word123 ( ) to. The argument that she knew what she was doing is honestly laughable - what skilled scum have you EVER seen play remotely close to that? So far it seems to me that you and others on the Midari wagon have been the ones flying under the radar looking for an easy wagon/mislynch, not the Marashu folks.

I think u didnt rly get the point of the main arguments from what I see.
First of all, Marashu as a player has nothing by himself to call for a townread; Im actually not townreading Marashu, that is simply false. The thing Ive said about Marashu is that he is not terminally scum himself; all the way until now the main point on the "marashu wagon" case was never that midari was not scum (or at least, it was never the focus of the arguments), but that Marashu himelf is a way better alternative. First foul.

Second, the dynamics surrounding Marashu wagon r what is interesting. Lets analyze how it all began, shall we?

Spoiler:

Marashu's ISO is horrible. Lots of examples of going out of his way to be helpful, without scumhunting. I remember when I was a newbie, I had a similar approach as scum - it bolsters the post count and makes it seem like you're contributing actively when you aren't having to really commit to anything. And a real lack of self-awareness in his remarks to Midari in post 328, accusing Midari of "looking for reasons to suspect me" when his whole post strikes a similar tone.

@Mod - Battle Mage is no longer voting No Lynch

Mod Note

Thanks

@votato you should put your vote somewhere.

Also I just noticed that Worcestershire hasn't posted yet.

Good job Worcestershire. You gottem.

Says the person who opened with the exact same post...

"Townbloc" in which sense ?

I see you signed up right before this game - do you have any prior mafia experience?

either way, I still dnt buy completely deimos attitude. I feel the particular questions he has made r too generic in nature, too general, and easily replicable as scum to feign an investigation of sorts (im talkin about things like 48, 168 and 173 as the most generic, others can be replicable). Im also not convinced of the actual intent behind the even distribution of votes; do u have any game when u have openly upheld such an opinion?
VOTE: Deimos
ninjaed by the above

Regarding the distribution of votes, it was discussed briefly in Newbie 2002.

Wait, why are you responding, Marashu?

I was in that game and remembered it coming up.

What do you mean in "our" experience?

We're talking about the Treestump game we played where a townie self voted on like page 2.

By "we" and "our" are you referring to yourself and votato?

VOTE: Marshu

Let's see if the gambler's fallacy holds this time.

Half the game is 90% mental.

This argument initially was heavily skewed in favor of Marashu being scum, deliberately or not. See the order of the posts; its increasing then it comes back to D1 posts. Since we usually put more value on the latter posts ppl do since the first r usually on the random side, this leaves the impression those posts were done at a latter part of the game, wich make them more evasive. And yet again, it could simply have been that BM went from one point down and then went up looking for more.
Posts wich actually dealt with scumhunt (wich in itself cound have been weak scumhunt or whatnots) were also missing:

Spoiler:

I've heard self- voting in rvs is almost always done by scum. Can anyone confirm that?

I've seen it done by town D1, but not in RVS.

VOTE: word321
To create a favourable vote distribution that precipitates effective scumhunting, of course.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ceejay
Townlean brassherald for making a high-quality RVS vote.

Mind running this one by me? Feels like you're trying to stay neutral and keep even distribution, but I don't see to what end.

why do you townread me then?

Townping from votato

tuxedo/drew is a good guess at this point for page 5

Why drew specifically? I've got him as a slight TL. Tuxedo might be scum though.

Also, town points for announcing the L-2. I have seen wagons fairly quickly formed early in the game where people don't do this and then a lol hammer happens. Though if Midari is in fact scum than there may be an associative tell there, but I don't want to put the carriage before the horse.

Honestly, I think it would be embarrassing if she gets lolhammered after self-voting.

Marashu, you got any reads yet?

Right now I've got Drew and votato as town. slight TL on word as well. Tuxedo Mask is giving me a gut scum ping. I'm having a hard time reading brass. Battle Mage is feeling off, but other people are saying this is normal play. Midari's play is erratic, but I'm gathering that some of that is a bit, and the on-topic posts have been pretty alright. Null pretty much everywhere else.

PEdit

Tuxedo Mask, why are you so focused on Drew?

I enjoy joking around with them. Also based on how our last game went, I sort of want to test this game as a ripple out from Drew in the center if that makes sense?

Ok, and what have you found from it?

Why aren't you voting Tux, if he is your scumlean?

I guess partly because I'm distracted, and partly because I had asked questions and was waiting for answers in case they changed my opinions.

Reread the game, this was untrue. You are the center of lots of discussions this game, I guess I got that vibes because I don't really know how people feel about you? Like it seems you aren't being scum read, but I don't think I see any town reads either. Guess just felt off to me. You're there a lot but I don't know what people think of you.

Ok, but, why should other people's reads on Drew matter to you? I was asking what you learned about other people by focusing on Drew, not what you learned about Drew by what other people are saying about him.

VOTE: Tuxedo

Ah so like most newbie games then when we get bloated.

I've heard before that longer days are typically better for scum, and from the games I've played as scum, town performed better in the games with shorter early games.

Big bad catch-up post:

Mind running this one by me? Feels like you're trying to stay neutral and keep even distribution, but I don't see to what end.

Marashu, if you remembered this coming up in Newbie 2002, why did you need me to explain it again?

It's more that you were showing that you were keeping the votes evenly distributed by moving your vote. I was more interested at the time in why you were moving your vote around in the first place, and you addressed that in your reply. I asked your preference in 61 exactly because I remembered Lucky doing that.

Because I am unsure of other's reputation, but Drew's is to be scum read. So the current state is an abnormality, I am trying to identify why. Is the abnormality in their play, or in how other's treat them? Is that abnormality nefarious?

I think I see. You're basically saying that, if Drew hasn't changed, then it could be that mafia is not only not framing him but is actively pushing him as town? From the fact that you are townreading Drew, does this mean you think that they are trying to pocket him?

Nothing strong so far, which doesn't feel great. I think I'm getting townie pings from Votato, Drew, Deimos and Midari. Those are the only things strong enough to mention.

Could you explain the townping on Midari?

This was your wagon at its peak (correct me if I'm wrong), so I'll pose this question to the group is scum on this wagon. I think that's likely. If so, who and how many? My gut says just one, between Marshu and Word. That or the wagon looked to carry it's self well enough, and scum wanted to avoid it.

I think it's very likely that scum was on the Midari wagon and that scum is on the Pi wagon. Unless the scumteam is completely in {piisirattional,votato,brassherald,Worcestershire} scum was on at least one of those wagons.
Looking at the Pi wagon, I'm not liking the way cj and BM joined the wagon.

Wors, Mara (Not sold on), Pii, superbowl9, I want to hear more from votato as well.

Why am I on your radar? Are you looking for reasons to suspect me?

Are you aware that I am quoting pi in that post? It has nothing to do with you, votato.

This is something town!votato does.

What's the scum motivation to my actions?

I don't know, but at the same time, and more importantly to me, I don't know what the town motivation is, either.

I like this answer.

All well and good. Would you mind addressing it, then?

I see you haven't played with votato before

If you have, this makes me suspicious.

That was all before 335. If u ask me, there is some degree of scumhunting thorough the whole game; I am known to comment and "help" and whatnots on other games, so I think that associating scum with that being deliberative of some sorts is a very very weak tell.
Now, my honest opinion is that I dnt like how his reads have evolved on the game, specially after the wagon; but nothing of that matters, cause BMs argument was the only thing ppl talked about for

350

posts like u say.
The important thing is the perception, and how fast the wagon gained track after BM and Deimos decided to begin it; it gave the perception of being solid (at least in that players had solid confidence in the wagon and Marashu being scum); and perception is reality, and yada yada yada, uve heard of me on this already.
So if u ask me, comparing just that factor alone, amount of scumhunting, I think its fair to say Marashu have way more than Midari/PP (go ISO her if u want). So it is indeed weird that he was avidly scumread

for that in particular

while not actually interacting with him about it (or at least, that was the case with a lot of slots, specially with the ones who came late to the wagon), if we consider it would be reasonable to iso him or something like that.

On the other hand, comparatively Midari has been way more deflective without calling attention; there is an innate reaction to

call her town

(wich is more appropiate indeed, that saying that there is few intent to search there). And about the "reticense" thing, I know Im town; I know Drew was the first and for a lot of time only guy to go (and stay) On Midari; so It looks pretty reticent to me tbh. I didnt find it pertinent to go at Maras wagon at the time cause I deemed it unnecessary (and even helpful, since that way there would be more space to other ppl) to not join it immediatly; since ur main argumen is on the lines "u r defending mara, not attacking midari", if I rly wanted to defend Mara I would have ripped to shreds BMs attack in situ like I did here, but I found that improductive; I wanted a wagon on Mara.
The thing is, I dnt think u can make that "town midari" ignoring the applicability of most of the arguments that can be made on Mara on her; and about the "newbiness" of midari, Ive said it already: Its completely and uterly irrelevant. I dnt judge ppl by newbienss. I judge ppl by being consistent to themselves and by the way they take postures in the game. She reacted to wagons on her advancing forwards; thats a bad sign, if u have experience and if u havent. The lack of initiative towards active slots is bad on newbie and veterans alike. Her experience is not into play. I dnt have a "standard" for players; I never had. If u think something shitty, thats alright as long as u think that bc u believe that; effectiveness has nothing to do with alignment, and searching for alignment dsnt discriminate on experience (in fact, the enwbier the easier).

[word321]

well, we use midari cause the case is mostly on her actions and words and iso, and not on penguin himself, wich happens to be in the slot

[word321]

I think I asnwered the main points of superbowl
if anything is not clear enough, ask it again

[word321]

finally, thanks for actually giving a case on mara; i may believe u have ur own reasons and do believe he is scum
but i do want to hear from the others; nothing is sure until ppl actually talk

[word321]

i want to see how deimos react to the game rn; still waiting his answer.

[word321]

well, im kind of done for today I think

[word321]

Im kind of tired of writing huge wall of texts

[word321]

im stepping down on the rest of D1

[word321]

I still thinl that most of the arguments by exclusivity dnt hold (as in, he dsnt have the single worst scumhunt to warrant such a

smooth

wagon)
I think most of the time the simplest solution us the easiest for scum to take
(Scum usually wants to take the least energy path).
Again, Mafia is a game of probabilities; I do genuinely thinl the simplest solution is to assume that Mara is a miswagon; otherwise there would have been plenty of opportunities to get out of that wagon (Midari was one, for example; again, I know Im not scum and that only leaves drew and the small wagon trabsition that never fully concreted).
Both Deimls and u liking the idea of a midari town, both slots that I openly questioned before, dstn help in that regard.

I dnr see the protown Midari/Penguin and yada yada; but saying that she got sidetracked by the natural play for constant wagons is, again, not an argument; the case deals with both her actions on wagon and outside wagon, and doing wagons IS our main way to prospecting info and reactions.
ninjaed by BM

[word321]

announcement!!!

Aristophanes replaces votato!!

Big shoes that I will not be filling btw

Fucking more anime people.....ok.

*deep breath*

Welcome presumably not pervy person!

haha! my favourite is when dudes have an anime girl as their avatar and complain when people assume they are not dudes.

Ah, this happens all the time
Aristophane being called ari dsnt rly help either

[word321]

either way, im ok with finishing the day for now
after mara claims and deimls manifests himself, that is

[word321]

hmm
I find that Nash is mlre akin with bein a Nail
that is, a hammerbait
HAHHAHAHA
now u can make bad jokes with it
but it was like the worst moment a scum would have chosen to join a wagon

[word321]

deimos should have taken a stance first, pal

[word321]

u let him disasociate upon flip, independent of the color, and that is bad practice

[word321]

oh, it rly is not a hammer

[word321]

I think Lookers % were directly based on the vote count analysis by tuxedo mask; he can answer it for u tho

[word321]

theres no way we r ending the day without a hammer

[word321]

at this point I think a maras hammer is worth by itself just for the amount of info well get out of it
I dnt think a penguin power wagon will suddenly launch either way with so many ppl null/town reading him in contrast to mara

[word321]

So, u think Nash with fully knowledge of game mechanics as scum, decided to ditch a completely safe wagon on u mara (town) bc he thoought he could get away with forcing a no lynch with fully knowledge it would change the parity of mafia, with no risks of being called on it?

[word321]

he has shown to be aware of the thing with the parity in mafia; but do u think that with that knowledge he would try to force a no lynch on this player base, presuming he fully knlws de mechanics and the players involved, if it was premeditated?

[word321]

what do u think was nashs intentions with that and why?

[word321]

VOTE: Marashu

[word321]

Add Aristophanes to that list please.

Is it bc he is a canadian?

[word321]

HAHAHA

[word321]

U know what I dnt like? The lack of speculation of a scum!mara scenario

[word321]

well, the late follow up of the previous commentary
most of the last part of the day was ppl showing doubt on mara scum, doubting ppl who showed doubt on mara scum, and speculating on town mara scenarios
(with plenty of intersections btw those groups)
I think we need to think this through a lil bit more than proposing a list for D2 beforehand

[word321]

hmmm
I think pp or nash is a good choice
pp town would increase the odds of a {looker, Bm} solve
pp scum would increase the odds of nash scum

nash seems scummy by himself, but one of the reasons is subordinated to penguins flip
VOTE: PenguinPower

[word321]

VCA. The maximum point of PPs wagon was 5/3 to mara, those 2 votes from looker and bm. I am inclined to think looker more than BM tbh; theres also the other actors. I may be paranoid by BM after all.
This is all assuming PP is town; if he is scum, thrn we would have won the game either way,, as we probably have 4 cpnfirmed town slots rn and only increasing with the hider.

[word321]

I joined the anime guild

[word321]

I will say that there being no mention of Nash, like not a single one, in Mara's Iso until more than 700 posts into the game, and then 43 mentions in the following 200 (I mean, half of that is the broken quote but still) with a sudden scumread is a lot more interesting than I initially gave it credit for.

From my experience with Mara from 1992, he is very good at not pointing out his partner in a conspicuous way when against the ropes; I still think despite that that Nash looks suspicious tho

[word321]

I think the current impasse rn is that there is no real reason not to push penguin if he was town under the premise that his main motivation was to save Mara from the gallows

[word321]

His last actions were quite strange tbh, from the way he briefly joined the mara wagon to the transition to out of it

[word321]

I don't understand what word321 is saying. Is he saying that he thinks I'm scum because I voted Penguin Power ("PP") at some point?

I just saw the case in more detail; both BM and u decided to go back to Mara immediatly after that VC. It wasnt u who voted PP, it was brassherald; there is little sense to go in that way given those facts; since u both also deconstructed PPs "advantage" in the comepting wagons.

[word321]

I go back on my word on that, and sry for the affected ppl. It was a rash judgement.

[word321]

(or not, if u rly r scum.)

[word321]

Either way, what I said earlier still applies; we have currently 4 potential conftown rn, so picking anyone who is not actually one of those will help the cause, independent of who we actually pick; since the hider will reveal someone else today too, even if they get someone we will still prob have 4 potential conftown and 2 ppl less on a pool of 9 (except if mafia kills the 2nd target of the hider, and the hider with him); that is like a newbie game, but with 4 prs instead of 2

[word321]

Marashu was below BM on the list, and Deimos was below Marashu (and henceforth, BM, on the night); it makes no sense for scum to try to kill someone below them, cause as a Hider they would die either way, and it would be a lost kill, if they were town; we r also safe to assume BM is not the hider, for being below Nash. Ill stop at that, since debating on prs is not usually good.

[word321]

Hey, I stopped VCA

[word321]

is there a difference in english btw "im down for it" and "im up for it"?
Either way, im in

[word321]

there is something that came up to my mind rn. Didnt midari/pp place mara on H-1?

[word321]

Tuxedo Mask, Doctor Drew, Word, Looker, Gypyx	28%
Nash, Superbowl, Aristophane, Froppy	14%
Battle Mage, Penguin Power	0%

This is a percentage table of probabilities to ppl being in the {hider, visited by hider} situation as either of the 2 assuming uniform distribution.
The percentages henceforth indicates raw probability of being town

For that situation

(u can still be town, but not conftown in the sense of the hider mechanic); it is assumed froppy=>pp and bm=>nash is not a thing.
That is, a player with a lower percentage is more

mechanically disposable

, that is, by mechanics alone, it is more probable for them being scum; it has nothing to do with guts, positioning and whatnots.
Tomorrow this table will have more info, as we will have more information on new slots.
Checking Nash, as is the current proposal, could potentially out the hider or make Nash a 0%, down TM by one level and change the odds to 33% and 17% respectively.

Id rather just kill PP at this point instead of going for a claim on Nash and risking outing a PR

; well garantee the hammer will not interfere with this mechanic, and the only risk well have at that point is scum killing the hider (and his hidee) or the hider finding scum; I think there r good odds this will not happen, as it is currently 14% chance alone (except is scum is on the possible hiders list). If we out Nash, and he dsnt end up beign scum, we r effectively increasing by a large amount the odds of scum outing the hider; without scum on hider candidates, it is an increase from 1/7 to 1/6, but with scum on those candidates, it may be as far as 1/5 to 1/4. Of course, there is no need to actually say who those candidates r.

So my recommendation is just to kill pp. He has real possibilities of being scum (in the sense that there is not anything against that, giving it at least an uniform distribution wich Ill not math), and he dsnt interfere with the mechanic.
This is not personal; it seems like a personal vendetta or whatnot, but it has nothing to do with it. im actually with pp on the mechanical argument of wifoms (and for that, u have this spoiler of mechanical blabbering:)

Spoiler:

The explanation given to wifoms works to a certain extent; it is on the base that both alternative, stage 0 and 1 of the wifom (wich r identical for all intents and purpose to every single other stage) r equivalent on all regards. This is not generally the true, tho; creating a counterwagon to a wagon on a scum for example, has benefits and detractions outside the view on ur slot, or bussing ur partner early or late. Therefore, one of the stages have a weight in it; it is more desirable to be on that stage than the other. Since this is a social game, in practice it means ppl will naturally drift towards that alternative, creating henceforth higher odds on that being a case for scum. The same argument can be given to difficulty; if one stage require more levels of difficulty in being executed (like faking a case when bussing ur partner), it will have the same practical effect.

Another factor to consider is the alleged "cycle" in metas. I dnt rly have that much experience to back it up, but I think the use of one strategy or the other on such an specific level of meta is more chaotic, that is, there is a lot of "noise" (in the stochastic sense) to that process. Even then, one "meta" being imperant leads naturally to the other being more desirable; this kind of situations usually tend to drift to a more stable state, when both situations tend to be equally used if truly equal considering the factors on the above paragraph, or a equilibrium with a weight to one side if those factors do matter (to illustrate this, it is quite difficult for one stage to completely impose itself on the other in a meta, since to reach that state, scum would need to actively play against their interests from some time).

From the above, the easier/more profitable stage of both tend to be more probable; this is backed up by PPs experience, so I find it a reasonable argument. I dnt think the argument that to call wifom u need to back it with something else does apply, too; a case on someone is build on a lot of selfconsistent arguments to that slot (at least that is how I see it), and from what is written above, there is no reason to say bussing ur partner is less probable than not; on the contrary, it is profitable on the towncred sense (that is natural human psychology, ppl search for the odd one first) and it is easy to execute; it is reasonable to think that the odds r inclined to that possibility, specially considering pps experience.

That dsnt mean I think his opinion is good;

only that argument

is too few.

So pp, nothing personal; if I was on ur situation as a VT u claim to be, Id consider commiting harakiri. Just a lil bit tho, as it is almost always better to kill someone else if u can. U just happen to be on the wrong spot.

On the same vein, I recommend for the hider strategy tonight checking 2 spots above u.

[word321]

hmmmm
I think we should spoil mechanical talks to not clog the game too much. I do like to talk about theory, so Ill leave this here.

Spoiler:

I do agree with a good degree of what u said; indeed, there r a lot of factors, too many, to consider an "analytical" answer to the problem in an objective way; even if there was, the nature of the game is so that being able to know the answer makes it mostly invalid (cause it is accompanied henceforth by a reaction from the playerbase). But there r still some points I disagree; players r diverse, but I think it is not exageration to say that most of the players "learn" from the games they play, and when I say learn, I mean they take the feedback of the effectiveness of their decisions into considering their next decisions. If someone busses a partner and gets instantly caught, it is less likely to bus on the same way again; and so on and so forth. Mafia being a probability game tho, being wrong dsnt necessarily implicate not taking the optimal decision, so on the short term it implicates a degree of chaos in the way ppl take decisions (but skewed on avarage to the best decision given a similar group of players), but under ideal conditions it grows to the optimal solution.

Mafia not being ideal, Id dare to say that there is so much noise (like having different amounts of xp among the player) that on average this only works on paper. And here is when the social nature of the game begins to show: we need to use reasonable estimations.

Reasonable estimations dsnt always comes from observed behavior, but from expected behavior; as we said earlier, we cant rly know the actual distributions of probabilities to a given situation, especially with a newer playerbase or whatnots, but we can

estimate it in a reasonable way

by taking assumptions. U already mentioned one of those: "most ppl think that it is good to bus their partners if u r arriving at a hammer on em, if u can get away with it.". U can also estimate other things associated: "The earlier u join the wagon on ur partner, the more towncread u get, or at least the more indistinguishible from the player base u get."
The effectiveness of such a representation ultimately comes from the ability of the player to understand the psyche of ur "average joe" playing mafia, and is what I truly think a good player develops with the years; u become more socially savvy.

I feel like we r drifting to the realm of nonsensical knowldge that is not based on reality itself, so lets go back to the argument with penguins argument.
Penguin inherently made an estimation based on his knowledge of the game at that point; note here that the fact of it originating from a wifom-able situation or not, becomes irrelevant to the actual effectiveness of said argument.
The argument is valid if it heightens the chance of caughting scum; given the nature of the argument, I too think it is reasonable as an estimation, given my reduced knowledge of the playerbase of the site. Saying it is not valid from a theoretical way must be something more than estimating it is not like that from knowledge alone, as that is the ability difference btw 2 players, not "theory"; it must mean there is an objective way as to why it is wrong, or there is a proper way to do an argument in a more reasonable way (and most of the time, there isnt, from what weve seen before).

Now, to the game:

Nash!

Even if I think that from a mechanical reason PP is a better hammer, I still think from a gut read that u r more suspicious, and seems that other ppl think so too. U jumped on Maras wagon when it was about to hammer; then u jumped out and went for the no-hammer argument. Then to looker. Saying ur behavior is unusual is getting short, and it seems quite erratic tbh.
But alas,

Let me help u help urself. Why dnt u give us a narration of ur thought process from when u voted Mara to the end of D1?

Suspects at the time, hunches, the reason u didnt go to PP and found it oportune to go for Looker; anything is valid. We r not interested in how good or wrong it was, but what u thought at the time. So the more details and reads on ppl (and reasons, if there r any), the better. Ur actions didnt rly seem random, Im sure u have some reason to have acted that way.

[word321]

why do u think looker is scum with mara rn? why did u think midaris wagon was bad?
has ur scumlist changed after the flip?

[word321]

Ari! Give me something before you disappear plskthx. I liked you yesterday...I’m iffy today.

Sure thing my friend!

Mara flipping scum really surprised me, so I need to rethink a few things and read their Iso before I commit to things.

I will say that there being no mention of Nash, like not a single one, in Mara's Iso until more than 700 posts into the game, and then 43 mentions in the following 200 (I mean, half of that is the broken quote but still) with a sudden scumread is a lot more interesting than I initially gave it credit for. I am going to have to do some wagonomics on it and see if the pivot looks like scum trying to save their ass, scum trying a light bus to pivot attention and break up their wagon while getting rid of associatives, or like scum flailing.

I'll have a readslist later, since the scumflip changes an awful lot for me.
Sorry Tux.

(I almost posted this in the wrong thread, as in, in Mish Mash. That would have been bad. Thank god for ninjas!)

I want a follow up of this before ending the day.

[word321]

HIDER - tonight target the person directly above you in THIS list (alphabetical order, with slight alteration to avoid double-targetting):

Aristophanes
Battle Mage
Doctor Drew
Froppy
Looker
Nash
Gypyx
PenguinPower
superbowl9
Tuxedo Mask
word321

Can u switch {ari, Bm} or {ari, word}? Can u switch {Gypyx, pp} too? I want to "check" those slots.

[word321]

then Im ok with ending the game with either nash or Pp. both r 0% in the hider/hidee mechanic. So im voting whoever has more votes when ari follows up his post.

[word321]

it is indeed quite boring rn

[word321]

and i need to prod dodge too

[word321]

Prod received.

I have to shower then I will work on a post here.

Long shower there, buddy.

Ya I lied.

I blame the discussion side of this forum for roping me in again.

have u not found the time to read the game and give ur opinion, or simply dnt want to share ur opinion on the current gamestate?

[word321]

strictly speaking we have 9 days

[word321]

ill give it a day, then im voting nash

[word321]

oooooh
GG everyone!
Thanks for jackie and the worst for modding.
It was fun playing with yall!