Open 777: Switch (Town Wins)
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellas
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Well it's 8:3:1 right now, not sure why you jumped straight to the game going to 1:1:1In post 13, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Unless we Hit Mafia the next two days along with a Vig shot we're walking towards a 1:1:1 scenario which then says which side played better with town being a judge in the end on who played the better game of mafia.-
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It reads to me like he commented, then midway through his catchup his point was invalidated, and instead of deleting it he crossed it out to try to show his thought process or somethingIn post 39, alban wrote:@ Elmo, clusterfuck of a beginning.
It reads desperate for attention as well as scummy.In post 21, Dunnstral wrote:
Post 13 is wild - does anti-town really make a post like that right away? It looks to be too suspect to be scum, in a way.
Why strikethrough?-
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Well it's not like he's putting out paragraphs, you couldn't have looked over his posts?In post 129, MariaR wrote:I have not read a single 0verki11 post.
VOTE: MariaR
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I like Tanner and Looker, and kind of Elmo, not sure about ndmath (not seeing a reason to vote there), not seeing a reason to vote overkill either-
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'Cause you're not doing anything and people are trying to work with you but you try to turn them down instead of going over a few postsIn post 136, MariaR wrote:
I could've, I just didn't. Why do you think that's so damning that it's vote worthy? Do you think scum are more likely to just not read posts then town? (I won't even go over the other obvious point but you should be able to figure that out yourself)In post 132, Dunnstral wrote:Well it's not like he's putting out paragraphs, you couldn't have looked over his posts?
Even if it's real, it doesn't preclude them from being serial killerIn post 155, Raya36 wrote:
Fake townslip?In post 141, Emperor flippyNips wrote:so we probably have two scum to deal with on top of the SK
if they have a switch for the cop and doctor their abilities are useless-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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I don't agree with your scumreads, I don't have a lot of scumreads but you are one of them, and your posts + my reads make a lot of sense with scum you in mindIn post 209, MariaR wrote:
There's no way all scum are on my wagon that's legit stupid. So, where am I wrong in my reads? Meh, I'll think this over tomorrow I'm tiredIn post 204, TheWizard wrote:MariaR (4):Solon, Dunnstral, Klick,Tanner
NDMath (3):Black Ranger,Knightmare491, Looker
Elmo TeH AzN (1):Raya36
Solon (1):NDMath
Looker (1):Elmo TeH AzN
Emperor flippyNips (1): MariaR
Not Voting (1):Emperor flippyNips-
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I'm not team hunting though, plus sk wouldn't have a partner anyway. To me you look like not town, figuring out teams isn't something I do before anti town flipsIn post 220, MariaR wrote:
I say he’s fine because he’s null. The townreads I want people to explain, plus my expectations for Dunn are higher than others. To be fair, if someone was playing like this that wasn’t Dunn I would probably vote them.In post 210, Klick wrote:You say he's fine, but the words that come after it don't sound like he's fine.
Normally people tend to scumread or call reads fake if you scumread people on your own wagon because it’s seen as convenient. So I was hoping I would townread the people on my wagon to avoid such a situation where that happens and people use it as an excuse. But as you can see:In post 211, Looker wrote:I don't understand. What's the angle?
We get stuff like this.In post 217, Tanner wrote:Oh look, as soon as there's votes on Maria, suddenly my posts are bad. Sure.
Then you should comment more on who those scumreads are and commit to a read because right now you’re just saying things that you can shift to look better on the gamestate. Right now you’re just using buzzwords. Where as if you said ‘Maria makes sense with x scum’ at the moment you’d have to back that up when I flip town. The fact you’re just shifting around and not explaining isn’t good.In post 218, Dunnstral wrote:I don't agree with your scumreads, I don't have a lot of scumreads but you are one of them, and your posts + my reads make a lot of sense with scum you in mind
I don't think I'm using buzzwords or "saying stuff to look better".-
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I don't think that makes her town. That's not a reason I scumread herIn post 299, Black Ranger wrote:
Does scum Maria leave NDMath in this color in 204 and refuse to acknowledge it? See my 252.In post 296, Dunnstral wrote:I'm not team hunting though, plus sk wouldn't have a partner anyway. To me you look like not town, figuring out teams isn't something I do before anti town flips
I don't think I'm using buzzwords or "saying stuff to look better".-
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I thought this was some good insightIn post 219, Knightmare491 wrote:Maria feels very calm tonally, is that normal for her as any alignment?
@Anyone who's played with her before
I don't think Ndmath is likely to be scum either.
What are the chances we can get Maria today?-
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Fair point. I don't feel strongly about the rest of their posts either way, I think NDmath is less likely to be scum than Knightmare, so I'd vote Knightmare just to get a lynchIn post 329, Klick wrote:
I'm glad you bring this post up thoughIn post 327, Dunnstral wrote:
I thought this was some good insightIn post 219, Knightmare491 wrote:Maria feels very calm tonally, is that normal for her as any alignment?
@Anyone who's played with her before
What is Knightmare's read on Maria? From what I can tell he has totally avoided giving a read on her. She was the top wagon when he made this post. Thinking about it this post feels really removed from the Maria wagon in a way that looks pretty scummy with either Maria-town or Maria-scum (if Maria-town, it reads as trying to justify jumping on later; if Maria-scum, it reads as distancing).-
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I didn't pick up on thatIn post 335, Knightmare491 wrote:
I think it's obvious from my post that I'm TLing Maria because of her tone. "Tone is too calm for someone who's scum and suddenly under pressure with deadline approaching"In post 329, Klick wrote:
I'm glad you bring this post up thoughIn post 327, Dunnstral wrote:
I thought this was some good insightIn post 219, Knightmare491 wrote:Maria feels very calm tonally, is that normal for her as any alignment?
@Anyone who's played with her before
What is Knightmare's read on Maria? From what I can tell he has totally avoided giving a read on her. She was the top wagon when he made this post. Thinking about it this post feels really removed from the Maria wagon in a way that looks pretty scummy with either Maria-town or Maria-scum (if Maria-town, it reads as trying to justify jumping on later; if Maria-scum, it reads as distancing).
Which is why I asked if that is AI for Maria-
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It looks to me like those are the mafia and sk kills, in either order (I could also see a vig shooting maria though)
Tanner's slot was empty throughout the whole night and there still a sk kill (probably), which means that Tanner is not the sk
What information in the game makes you think Maria was shot by the sk?In post 360, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
Im making an educated guess based off the information known in the game.In post 353, Dunnstral wrote:Are you claiming vigilante?
A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.
The vig should definitely be shooting.In post 361, NDMath wrote:
Can you explain why you think this because I strongly disagree?Elmo TeH AzN wrote: A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.
Also, we need to try to lynch mafia over SK because of crosskilling and because of vote parity, and lynching mafia extends the game. Knightmare is a good candidate for mafia because the vote failed on them at deadline. Speaking of which, can we talk about why/how that happened?-
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What do you mean? I voted for KnightmareIn post 381, Looker wrote: VOTE: Dunnstral I don't know why you and Raya have been given passes. I get it, I wasn't around, but I feel we could've secured a lynch with the players that were around during deadline.
If you mean we could have swung the vote to somebody else, explain how we could have done that, and on who, and how I would have known that
Also, you don't think this guy is guilty of what you're accusing me of?
Your vote reeks lookerIn post 337, Knightmare491 wrote:I don't mind voting for Emperor, it's a lurker slot, but I'd rather lynch math.-
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Make a vote count with all the active players from yesterday on a wagon from yesterday that results in a lynch.In post 381, Looker wrote:I feel there were enough people around yesterday to secure a lynch.
Elmo posted 3 minutes before deadline and gave no indication that he was active before that time.-
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I still don't understand this, or rather I don't think it makes sense from a town perspectiveIn post 364, Dunnstral wrote:
What information in the game makes you think Maria was shot by the sk?In post 360, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
Im making an educated guess based off the information known in the game.In post 353, Dunnstral wrote:Are you claiming vigilante?
A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.-
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That wasn't a dig at you, I'm pointing that out at looker who said we could have lynched someone with the active players then voted me.In post 387, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
I was already on the wagon. And I checked in at workIn post 384, Dunnstral wrote:Elmo posted 3 minutes before deadline and gave no indication that he was active before that time.-
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I voted at deadline to try to prevent a nolynch.In post 386, NDMath wrote:I don't think there was a good reason for sk to be off wagon yesterday?
So I think sk is probably just between Elmo, Raya, and Dunn.
I do think Elmo and Raya are good guesses for SK, for separate reasons (Elmo doesn't look like mafia but is acting weird and himt alking about the SK shooting maria looked like a slip of knowledge, Raya's vote was minus mafia equity but they kind of feel like an outcast)
I agree that we should be lynching for mafia and not SK today. Good candidates are: Knightmare and Looker. I'm not seeing Black Ranger as scummy (they're just null for me), further explanation there would be useful.
If knightmare is mafia, it's either actively flake or lynch your partner for town cred. With town being in pretty dire straits, It's pretty reasonable to choose the first option.In post 386, NDMath wrote:I'd be shocked if all of Ranger Looker and Maria(flipped t) were town, though I'd also doubt two scum would actively flake at EOD.
If knightmare is mafia, he also counts as one of the scum actively flaking at EOD.-
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It's not possible for that combination of players to secure a lynch based on the end votecount. You're wrong:In post 391, Looker wrote:You, Klick, chkflip and Raya all posted around deadline.
If you're arguing we could have done it with Elmo: he didn't pop in until 3 minutes before deadline. There's no way for us to know whether Elmo pops in or if you/Black Ranger pop in, hindsight is 20/20 and all that.In post 348, TheWizard wrote:-
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Also I wasn't "Vigilante fishing", I got confused and thought Elmo was claiming vig because he started talking about sk killing maria, and for a minute I thought that his confidence in saying that meant he had info on night actions, then I realized that even if he were vig he wouldn't know who the sk killed vs who the mafia killed, so actually it looks more like a slip that comes from mafia/sk. But I also don't know if he's just really confused.-
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No lynching in that scenario is a plus for Mafia, approximately neutral for SK (In my opinion), and a minus for TownIn post 405, Looker wrote:
You're right. But, I don't know how incriminating a potentially stalled mislynch is. I don't know the benefit of not lynching Knightmare vs genuinely inactive players.In post 392, Dunnstral wrote:It's not possible for that combination of players to secure a lynch based on the end votecount. You're wrong:
Even if Knightmare is town, we would be better off if he voted himself at the end of the last day phase, rather than waste a day and then get voted up again anyway.
Now we can't tell if he wasn't lynched because everyone was afk, or because mafia didn't want to lynch one of their own, so they didn't post. Which means we pretty much have to lynch him, now.
What looks too easy? I'm not sure what you're accusing us of. I voted Knightmare at deadline to try to avoid a nolynch - it wasn't my choice of a lynch yesterday. I think certain events point towards knightmare being scum (I'm not looking at night kills here), so today I want them dead for reasons other than deadline.In post 405, Looker wrote:To me it looks too easy, particularly for you and Raya.
If you're saying other people are giving me a pass - I can't control what other people do, you should call those people out instead, if you have a problem with it.
I'm not sure why you switched your vote from me to Raya, but it's noted - it makes you look less like mafia in my eyes, where Knightmare came in and voted me to try to save himself (he didn't have a problem with me until I started pushing for his lynch + after you and chkflip voted me. Also, not sure what chkflip's deal is.
I think Raya is less likely to be mafia because he voted for Knightmare, especially if Knightmare is mafia.
What would you have done if you were in my position, as town?In post 405, Looker wrote:I'm still processing the advantage vs the disadvantage of scum piling onto a wagon last minute and saying everyone who isn't on it is scum
I think you're expecting me to have gotten everybody to move their votes to someone else, when at the time a knightmare lynch looked much more attainable and realistic than getting everyone to move to a new wagon.
Tanner seemed fine to me. Chkflip is being weird.In post 414, havingfitz wrote:I think there is probably a scum among the 3 living Maria voters (Tanner, Dunnstral and chkflip) and of those I would lean Tanner. I need to do some ISOs but for now my vote is on Knightmare to try and finish what almost happened D1 and because most of his D1 wagon I lean town on. Plus...I think he would have been more likely to get lynched D1 if he was town.
Town leans are Raya, Black Ranger, NDMath and maybe Dunnstral.
TBD on Looker and chkflip
Scum lean on Knightmare, Tanner and Elmo.
I don't think talking more is a real reason that you're scumreading me forIn post 401, Knightmare491 wrote:Dunn was quite quiet on day 1, today he seems diff. I can't really put my finger on what exactly, but it gives me odd vibes.
Weak argument all around from Knightmare - again, i don't think he believes it, he's voting me because I became a viable alternative to his own lynch, in his eyes.In post 411, Black Ranger wrote:
So are you calling Dunnstral the vig?In post 402, Knightmare491 wrote:He was scum reading Maria too hmm, maybe they thought she's the SK?
VOTE: Dunn
Based and not!vigpilled.
VOTE: Knightmare491-
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Vigilante is still aliveIn post 421, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Unless I did this wrong I don't see how we get to Day 5 right now without a cross kill.-
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Why does that make the slot scum?In post 458, Paragon wrote:What a start to the game! I checked Battle Mage's post history and he was completely active during the time he had to confirm his role.
VOTE: havingfitz-
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Why were you looking at the post history of a player who never posted in this game, if you couldn't be bothered to look at your own slots iso to see if he claimed vanilla town?In post 476, Paragon wrote:Rather than subconsciously scumread that slot without being able to explain why, I thought it best I bring it up for the sake of transparency!
I don't see how what you pointed out for that slot makes them scum, even if true.-
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YesIn post 514, Knightmare491 wrote:So now tell me if this makes sense coming from town.-
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What's this then:In post 514, Knightmare491 wrote:I'm not telling that we should pre flip solve.
In post 499, Knightmare491 wrote:
because as town he would be taking firm stance on the info that we would get from my lynch. Not just saying we need to lynch me anyway (?)In post 497, Raya36 wrote:Why can't the part you called a slip be a thought coming from town?
WTF does that mean, are we at the liberty of lynching people (anyway??) without even thinking what info could be gained from it?
It makes sense that he pushes on me now when his pet scum read Maria flipped town.-
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As I explained, the failure to get a lynch on you yesterday, the frantic vote on me to try to get someone other than you lynched, and the fact that you haven't been lynched yet todayIn post 514, Knightmare491 wrote:Except I wasn't scummy to him yesterday, what changed today?
Not sure that you ever said it was NDmath. You didn't start saying it was me until I started pushing for your lynch.In post 513, Knightmare491 wrote:
cause you're new.In post 510, Paragon wrote:Knightmare; why are you so concerned with what I am doing rather than focus on the wagon on you? What is your insight on the voters?
My wagon is just stupid at this point it's difficult to say who's being apathetic town and voting me just cuz or who's scum. It's probably Dunn and ND tho like I've been saying all along.
Lynching you does give info about other players too. Players who didn't hammer you at deadline, and players who tried to start a wagon on me over you.In post 474, Knightmare491 wrote:
Cool, so you're saying that lynching him will give no info about any other players because it could be either of those things, but now you want to lynch me anyway.In post 416, Dunnstral wrote:Now we can't tell if he wasn't lynched because everyone was afk, or because mafia didn't want to lynch one of their own, so they didn't post. Which means we pretty much have to lynch him, now.
This is the most obvious scum slip I've seen in a while. Conf scum
You keep pointing that I was scumreading Maria and she died - your argument is really weak and it's been pointed out to you that sk can be immune to the mafia nk anyway. It's also been pointed out that my activity rate for day 2 doesn't make me scum. You're voting me because I'm pushing you, and you need someone else to be lynched.-
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So why are you still voting me Looker? Also, Paragon's hammer doesn't make them town, it makes them more likely to be scum.
Your vote actually makes no sense. Do you think I'm mafia or SK? I think there are very good arguments against me being mafia, but your reason for voting me initially was that I was "being given a pass" implying that you thought I was mafia.
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I'm like, 80% sure Paragon is mafia. We can lynch them today, or we can fish for the serial killer.-
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If we lynch mafia today, it's 4:1:1.
If both mafia and sk shoot town that night, it's 2:1:1
Do we want to bet the game on vigilante shot/cross kills over nights 3 and 4?
The problem is, I don't feel confident about lynching SK today if we tried, so it would be risky to go for that IMO.
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Not seeing Looker as mafia because he switched his vote to Raya while Knightmare and Chkflip were trying to get me lynched over Knightmare. It doesn't look like the scum flip changed his viewpoint at all today, though-
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In post 403, TheWizard wrote:-
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Stop dodging this question: with knightmare flipping scum and you trying to counterwagon me we need an answer as to why you voted meIn post 430, Looker wrote:
Why did you vote for DunnstralIn post 415, chkflip wrote:Missed ya, fitz!-
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Eh.. Raya groups people into Town/Scum here but it looks like he means Not mafia/Mafia, and he doesn't really consider SK. Wondering if that's more likely to come from SK themself. I don't think Raya is mafia.In post 535, Raya36 wrote:I did an associations check last overnight
Spoiler:
This is what I got out of it (The ones I didn't mention don't strongly fit in either based on association)
[Town: Dunn, Emperor]
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Do you think we can win if we lynch mafia today?In post 549, chkflip wrote:It actually makes sense for Dunn as well, ironically enough.-
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Hammer aside, your slot is one of the slots that wasn't voting Knightmare on day 1, and we couldn't secure a lynch. I understand that there was nobody in the slot at the time, but still, it's a process of elimination thing.In post 564, Paragon wrote:I was fully expecting this btw. I knew my hammer would look like I "accidentally" hammered my scum buddy in an attempt for towncred. Lame play as scum.
I thought your predecessor VT thing itself was pretty weird, though. Especially when you spent time looking at Black Mage's post history.In post 570, Paragon wrote:I'm saying your reaction to my predecessor VT thing was unnatural for town.
Uh, whatIn post 571, Paragon wrote:Thanks for the big ups btw. I knew I could count on someone with such great posture.-
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Because Paragon hammered after his slot failed to vote on day 1, and after the lynch became inevitable and there was already intent, while Raya and I voted mafia at deadline instead of going missing, while it would be easy for us to let it end in a nolynch (which it did, but not because of us)In post 582, Looker wrote:Why does Paragon's hammer make them scum, but your and Raya's placement on Knightmare's wagon not make you two scum?-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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He can't, it's what the mod told us to stop talking aboutIn post 586, Raya36 wrote:
Care to elaborate on these ~reasons~?In post 584, Paragon wrote:I scumread brassherald for ~reasons~
OMGUR is Oh My God, You Rock. OMGUO is Oh My God, You're Okay. Obviously.-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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I have no idea who the SK is. I'm pretty sure we can get a mafia lynch today.
I have a crazy idea: Mafia and Vigilante both holster tonight
Let me explain why mafia needs to holster:
Lynching mafia brings us to 4:1:1 going into night. Let's assume that SK always shoots. If mafia and sk both shoot town, It's 2:1:1. Town cannot lynch, and has to no lynch and hope for cross kills.
Here's the kicker: If SK is immune to the mafia kill,mafia can't win by bringing it to 2:1:1. Town HAS to no lynch, even if it goes to 1:1:1.
I believe that mafia will not make a move that will likely lose them the game, just to screw town over. They need the SK dead, too.
Going into the day 3:1:1 is the only way for town to be able to lynch and potentially catch the SK.
Vigilante should not shoot: it's 50/50 on wether they'll be flipped in the first place: Best case scenario is vig shoots anti town BUT town has to no lynch to 3 alive anyway. And SK has a chance of being vig immune.
Thoughts?-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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Well here's what we can do: We can lynch Mafia, Sk, or Town today. SK lynch is the theoretical best, but likely ends in us lynching town instead, which is the worst (weIn post 615, Looker wrote:
Are we lynching the SK or not?In post 611, Dunnstral wrote:Personally I'm leaning lynch Paragon, I'm still pretty sure he's mafia based on knightmare interactions, and his reads seem weak
Looker is weirding me out by still voting meprobablylose if we lynch town, just off the top of my head). Mafia lynch is easier to get into imo. That being said, my only current suspect is Paragon, I don't have an idea on who the third one is, except that chkflip is being uncooperative and unhelpful, and tried to take the wagon off of mafia. I'm still not sure if that is his personality or if he's mafia.
I'm not confident in naming an SK right now - I kind of feel like it's Raya still but I'm pretty sure they're not mafia and I don't want to lynch town today. You've been kind of weirding me out, in a scummy but not really aligned with mafia way.
To either the mafia nk or the cop and vigilante - chosen in pregamebrassherald wrote:Isn't SK immune to night kills?-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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And if vigilante hits scum + sk shoots someone different, it's 3:1, and it's optimal for town to nolynch and wait for 1 more person to dieIn post 594, Black Ranger wrote:The increased power of the vigilante with a mafia lynch today. @ 4:1:1 the vigilante only needs to find one townie to become a weighted coin flip to hit scum.
If vigilante doesn't shoot, it's 3:1:1 (at worst) and town lynches that day
So it's the same amount of lynches in the end, except that the vigilante might not even be able to kill the sk. Vigilante has a pretty good chance of being outright disabled by anti-town anyway, so I wanted to plan around them not doing anything. It's not a huge deal either way, I suppose.-
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I don't agree with you with lynching brass. Who else do you think is scum?In post 612, Paragon wrote:Should be lynching brass, Dunny. You're wrong on me.-
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Not sure what you're talking about, I don't think anything I just said can be taken that way?In post 630, Looker wrote:this is the second time Dunnstral's fixated on finding PRs-
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It's vigilante and cop - it would have been picked before cop died n1, just saying.In post 650, Galron wrote:If I'm SK I pick mafia immunity every time. 3 brains vs 1.-
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Looker can you explain this?In post 631, Dunnstral wrote:
Not sure what you're talking about, I don't think anything I just said can be taken that way?In post 630, Looker wrote:this is the second time Dunnstral's fixated on finding PRs-
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Not understanding why you linked to that post hereIn post 659, Looker wrote: @Black Ranger: Why did you leave out Dunnstral's post to Elmo concerning NKs?-
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Fitz had towny posts IMO and I don't agree with the reasons for thinking brass is scum
You're calling me scummy for looking for the SK, right?In post 682, Looker wrote:Why do you think that I don't care?