Open 719: Stack The Deck! (D4)

[Mathdino]

i need to know what was going through your head when you suddenly backed off of me on D2

it was in the middle of my defence and i don't think i said anything particularly clearing

[Mathdino]

the thing that i thought implied TW knew i was town is defunct.

i think recruit is slightly more likely because wow beefster/TW played like shit with daytalk

but i don't know.

if TW shows alignment knowledge in his ISO then probably recruit.

[Mathdino]

i... don't really see you doing that on this page?

[Mathdino]

i don't think that post is all that indicative of anything other than TW/beefster

[Mathdino]

if maria's scum, she's an unrecruited traitor

[Mathdino]

1. maria absolutely never shoots jmo
her behaviour after the nightkill showed lack of awareness of it

2. the worst would pick daytalk if he's following the mathdino theory of balance
which is that daytalk is worth a power role

[Mathdino]

it means that any case on you would categorically disregard any of TW's associatives

[Mathdino]

yeah this is getting really annoying tbh

maria should at least be considering wisdom but like

- she's given no reasons to actually think wisdom is town

- it feels like she's just keeping up an act of being an idiot who scumreads me

[Mathdino]

is wisdom voting maria?

[Mathdino]

whelp

[Mathdino]

i was about to throw a lolvote on maki harukawa or sonianevermind or elena fisher but pretending to vote = voting for some mods so w/e

[Mathdino]

so brass do you have time to jam in the next few days or so

i'm actually strongly coming around on maria

but full disclosure i never actually read any of the meta i promised to

[Mathdino]

the behaviours i'm looking for:

- how scum-wisdom behaves when he's close to a lynch

- how scum-maria behaves when last scum alive

- wisdom's read progressions as scum and what his town-persona goes through in those same games

things i'm not looking for:

- playstyle/wording tells. both players manipulate their own meta so

[Mathdino]

i know maria is metareadable, i just haven't figured it out yet

i have no data suggesting wisdom is metareadable but i know wisdom is motivation-readable

while i trust JJD in general i also don't trust JJD's ability to read maria and i think they would find that assessment fair

so right now i don't really have requests

scumcase each other if you think it'll help

[Mathdino]

i mean your tunnel of me so far is pretty damning maria

it's like one of those angles to pursue that no one would think scum-you would want to go down

[Mathdino]

I fucking scumread 2 town and strong armed a lynch on one while clearing 3 players as town
Like you're stretching my disbelief on how bad your reads can even be

[Mathdino]

This game has taught me something important though that I need to work on (well I've always needed to work on it but now more then ever)

What's that
Also consider reading my article lol

[Mathdino]

I really really need to put my foot down more as town or maybe case people idk. I just know if I didn't kinda just lay down and be content we would've been in a much better spot I need to be effective and firm on my stances. I should've said "We are lynching me today and you're not lynching EP" If I did that we would've prob won already but I kinda was silentish/didn't strongarm it enough I suppose I need to be louder without being fully selfish

the fuck?

this would've led to

MariaR --> Espeonage

and into a straight up loss

how is this better for you

[Mathdino]

look honestly the real thing that threw away our auto-win was JJD tracking me instead of maria/wisdom/espeonage lol

[Mathdino]

*tracking nauci

[Mathdino]

It's a big issue for me cause I used to be super super selfish with my reads and I kinda tried to tone that down cause I wanna seem like I'm a team player ye know? But I was really confident in my game and just thought I was being selfish so didn't get loud. I was a bit loud with my push on you too and even though we would've lost I feel kinda bad I couldn't convince brass. Cause what if you were scum in that spot? I would've been 100% right but I couldn't get the other town to vote you. That's sucky

yes except if you actually took an objective view of your actual reads in games you would see that your reads are approximately random

while brass's reads have, over multiple games, proven to be at the very least better than random

not to mention that he's correctly read me before while you've read me incorrectly

misplaced confidence is worse than total lack of any confidence

there's no "what if you were scum in that spot"

i wasn't fucking scum and everyone who knew me but you was able to see it

[Mathdino]

i didn't say your reads are random
i said your reads are APPROXIMATELY random

that is if someone took a scumread that you have in any given towngame, they stand an approximately 25% or less chance of being scum

i'm saying that you would be equally accurate as town if you did pick names out of a hat

[Mathdino]

also maria what the fuck why are you taking credit for lynching scum when you literally did not

[Mathdino]

like that's what i don't get about you

how can you continually be wrong about
- the actual events/facts in games
- your reads on others

and still have this massive confidence in your reads to the point of ignoring other townies

[Mathdino]

SK doesn't count, maria
you're provably better at playing scum than you are at playing town
idk if it's a mindset thing or what

you wanting beef lynched doesn't mean "i lynched scum"
he claimed scum for everyone to see and someone else vigged him. you had 0 part in that.

you waffled off the TW wagon while every single other one of us lynched scum
and you have the audacity to claim you lynched scum this game and "did your job"

[Mathdino]

Sup
I got nothing on my mind really
Tough game lol

[Mathdino]

Scum motivation is keeping up the image of being bad town that suspects me

[Mathdino]

tbh i've been putting off all the work i was planning on doing for this game

still need to do a reread

i want to believe thor and JJD wouldn't both be wrong on wisdom but i also don't believe they can read maria either

maria tryna take credit for being a good townie is kinda pissing me off

as is wasting the entire day tunneling me since she literally didn't have a case on wisdom

[Mathdino]

this might come down to whether the worst would pick daytalk or traitor recruit

[Mathdino]

why do people develop a shit town meta to be better at their scumgames

[Mathdino]

mariaR never kills the IC or makes all those NKA posts after the IC died

[Mathdino]

i was actually just working on this game

wisdom hasn't played scum in a while

the biggest thing i don't think scum-him fakes is the read progression on me now that he's explained it

the biggest thing i don't think scumariaR fakes is the "changing my mind a bunch of times"

maria is however a better practiced scum player than wisdom

wisdom also replaced dunnstral tho

@Mod: If scum post in the PT but do not confirm via PM, is this treated as lack of confirmation?

[Mathdino]

I'm actually thinking it's a town slot, since decisions were probably made in his absence yet he did confirm in the end. If he was posting in the scum pt either his partners or the mod would have reminded him to send the confirmation pm, but that's all probably outguessing the mod. Same for the mod noting that the new roles will be send after the initial 72 hours "so as not give away alignments". Wisdom would have needed some time to discuss with his partners, bit the "not to give away alignments" suggests it wasn't necessary, so Wisdom probably isn't scum.

this post might be more sheepable than any of JJD's suspicions...

ugh now we're bringing in out of game shit

[Mathdino]

Not to mention that goon cop fails on 2 of them, and they can just have the rolecop submit all the kills to fuck up the tracker.

[Mathdino]

First of all my read on you the whole game has been town, i just got paranoid you had pocketed me when i realized on d2 that half the reasons i was townreading you for didnt apply if you were the traitor
What also fed into the paranoia was that you wouldnt agree with ugly and instead pushed tw - up until i looked at a few tw games to see how he is as scum i was gut townreading him and felt like your push on him wanted to draw attention from the ugly wagon
When i realized tw is basically the same as scum i stopped thinking i had solved the game and wondered if you were right about him, thus starting to consider both duck scenario as well as tw + esp/maria

i didnt stop thinking it's you and ugly on that page, i just switched to ugly
my posts on the next page hint im still suspecting you

this is potentially wisdom's towniest post as i'm seeing it

[Mathdino]

Well the first time I was like "hrm maybe it was wisdom" was when it seemed like I was the only one who was suspecting math and widom came in and was like "oh maria is kinda towny" I was already somewhat scared that I'd fuck everything up by trying to strongman a lynch on math but be wrong and it really be wisdom and I don't know why he was townreading me.
The second time I switched back to thinking it was Math because I went back to the idea of "oh he setup the worst lynch and wants to lynch today because it's me vs wisdom and it works for him" because that going into the day phase is what it looked like and of course math would do that
The third time was because I thought it over and Math seemed like he would have the ego to want to lynch today because he wants his own fate and to be a little selfish
I started thinking it was math again when he went into hyper type mode when me and wisdom were agreeing on the same page and he started showing all these set up spec/mech talk (and I've caught scum for doing this a lot) and I thought he was just doing it to seem towny

and this is maria's towniest post

[Mathdino]

It really bothers me that both of these are so recent and really are only when they need to case just one person, by the way.

i just mean that their previous progressions were townish now that they've explained them

more points to wisdom for having a believable progression prior to actual mylo, yeah

[Mathdino]

the one thing that gets me is that wisdom was obviously recruited if he was the traitor

meaning dunnstral might not have responded to his updated role PM

[Mathdino]

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

yeah i was just going to say it would be just like dunnstral to not confirm his updated role PM but yeah that's a fair point

so in order for that tinfoil theory to be true, wisdom/beefster would've had to take a rolecop and recruit the traitor

but that's impossible because wisdom hardslipped not groupscum

[Mathdino]

you can go ahead

i need to look over maria's progression once more

reverse burden of proficiency works on her

if her scumreads on scum were too on point then she's almost certainly scum yeah

and the fact that she's tryna take credit for scum lynches that she wasn't on is problematic

[Mathdino]

yet you've managed to not give any of them

[Mathdino]

maria in what universe do you genuinely believe you're easy to read

like do you just say that you're blatantly obvtown in every game as a canned line or something

because you're known to be one of the hardest to read players, you just won (in spirit) an extremely difficult SK game twice in the past year, you get mislynched a lot, and you get townread as scum

[Mathdino]

why would you not have done it already

you've made a dozen posts hinting that you're obvtown or something

maria do you believe that your scumgames are not obvtown

[Mathdino]

there's also the fact that wisdom has been fairly forthcoming with his meta and with how the gamestate is consistent with you being scum

[Mathdino]

all your alts are public and have similar communication issues and subpar reads lol

like you're publicly known to be readable based on the quality of your reads (i.e. reverse burden of proficiency)

a way to not have this happen is
- stop bussing as scum
- get better reads as town

[Mathdino]

why does it matter if i want one lol

it's your prerogative to convince me and give me the information i need to make the right decision

[Mathdino]

like there's a point where not doing it is straight up denying me information

i wanted to see if you would ever actually provide the meta or stop calling yourself obvtown

or like

acknowledge that the vast majority of the site has no idea how to read you

[Mathdino]

i mean the fact that you lie and AtE as town is fundamentally problematic for that

[Mathdino]

I wanted to be lynched the day before because this exact thing was gonna happen and I'm gonna be content with this cause I'm not putting this as a loss for me when yall fucked it up

have you considered playing town like town

i would've lynched espeonage on your townflip yesterday

you do not get to blame me for you being in this position

[Mathdino]

not when they claim to have helped lynch scum yet weren't even on the scumlynch wagon

not when they did nothing to push beefster D1

not when i was the one that pushed the worst despite disagreement and despite you saying that you'd rather lynch 3 other people

yeah i'll take JJD's reads into consideration but i also have to take espeonage's

[Mathdino]

if the most pro-town thing that you can claim you did was request to be lynched, you should probably stop playing when you roll town

[Mathdino]

you literally lied as your defence

how do you expect me to react to that

you want me to listen to your reads after tunneling me against everyone else's reads all day?

[Mathdino]

brass clearing himself as town was pretty solid haha

i would throw some credit for the TW wagon given you literally started it

maria seems to think she was on it when she wasn't

[Mathdino]

you can't use this game as an example for your reads being good when i don't even know your alignment, maria

[Mathdino]

Then vote me now so I don't have to put in the effort.
I said scum was in you and wisdom I was correct.
I was correct on calling my townreads and

lynched a scum.

I'm town I wanted this done a dif way

this is a lie

[Mathdino]

nah i support it, put your vote back on

[Mathdino]

i still need to meta maria/maki

i was hoping she would actually play to win lol

[Mathdino]

i mean yeah i could get down with a mylo policy lynch for that

[Mathdino]

but if i hammered right now it would strictly be to make an example out of maria

and espeonage for having bad reads tbh

[Mathdino]

nah i'm describing what others have told me about her meta to see what she does

sorry man

[Mathdino]

it's pretty +EV for town to policy lynch maria yeah

like lurkers get replaced, spammers can be read

most of the time when i threaten to policy lynch people it's kind of a joke

it's not a joke when a player is so much better at scum than town to the point of actively hurting town though

[Mathdino]

i wish i could say i've made a decision but i've pretty much decided to wait for the mod here

not necessarily wait for the replacement and the catchup and the case

but at the very least waiting for the mod

so y'all can carry on with your lives haha

[Mathdino]

i wanna get a check on dunnstral for the very niche case that the worst was the recruited traitor the whole time

and so the replacement actually goes into effect

[Mathdino]

if i hammer now the replacement doesn't occur and this counts as a game for her

[Mathdino]

yeah that was pretty bad

i was townreading the replace out lol

[Mathdino]

I'm sitting at 55% wisdom 45% maria
That 10% is unfortunately not enough to outweigh the fact that I really don't want to lose this to scum Maria pulling this fuckery

[Mathdino]

I mean the insistence on me hammering is part of it
Theoretically with more information I should reach a more accurate conclusion

[Mathdino]

Put your final questions and

I'll come back tomorrow

VOTE: Maria

so much for that towncase

[Mathdino]

idk i'm kind of assuming this is a loss but i refuse to lose to scum-maria hardtunneling me all day, faking a replace-out, and then lurking out mylo

[Mathdino]

well i won, and maria didnt

this is really what matters

[Mathdino]

I'm not entirely sure what I said that crossed the line

[Mathdino]

I'm pretty sure I never got personal

[Mathdino]

i expect nothing else from such a shady duck!