open 914: the coalition (this is completed)
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Putting on the serious hat in the discussion for a moment:
This seems like a misunderstanding of the setup.In post 38, Tsawwassen wrote: If we all nominate ourselves, a coalition cannot be formed, so you need others to make compromises
A "typical" coalition in this setup involves 5 players collectively deciding that they are the coalition, and thus all 5 of those players would vote for themselves. In fact it's technically mathematically impossible to form a coalition without at least one player voting for themself: there are 5 people on the coalition, and 5 people voting for the coalition, and in a player list of 9 people that list must overlap at at least one player.
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This is also something to highlight in this setup; mechanically speaking, HEAL: s are 100% meaningless unless you heal 5 people. Voting for a coalition of 4 players will never actually mechanically contribute to a coalition forming because the day ends when 5 people have all voted for the same 5 people.In post 40, Aventurine wrote: And this compromise lies in not nominating yourself? Coalition-making is a different process from voting on coalitions.
This is not to say we oughtn't vote because it's a good way to telegraph an opinion. But votes don't carry the mechanical weight that they do in a normal game of mafia, where voting for a player is putting them one step closer to being eliminated. Even voting for a full coalition doesn't have the same sort of weight because it own't matter unless 4 other people agree on theexactsame coalition.-
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look at me, thinking that an opening tag without a closing tag would just sit there idly. maybe it worked that way in the last phpbb version lol-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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That's not true!In post 51, Tsawwassen wrote: That means I'm forced to suffer nominating people that nominated themselves
You always have the option to just not vote for the coalition that forms-
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i did very seriously consider doing a Hurt on s 100% meaningless but i did not want to clutter the page :X-
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i was somewhat wondering this
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Why do you consider this a gamble?In post 73, Aventurine wrote: Going to take a gamble and say that Umlaut is likely to be town.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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mafiascum is pretty dramatically slow paced a lot of the time, yeah. Depends a lot on the game, the players, etc, but there are definitely plenty of games that use all their time. Also lots of games that peter out and then people drag their feet, so it's good to be vigilant that things are actually still happening. That said, the coalition phase in this setup is very high pressure since a significant amount of the time town wins this setup, it'll be in the coalition phase, and it only ends when 5 people agree on an exact coalition. So it usually lasts most to all of the deadline.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Why is this pertinent? I wouldn't describe you as hyperposting in this game. Just that you think Black-town should have some latent skepticism that you're capable of carrying a game as scum? If so, do you think Black-scum would be less likely to express that skepticism?In post 81, May wrote: I think it's town indicative for black to pushback skepticism on my slot, considering I hyperposted last game. Hyperposting town read scum is kind of a loss condition even more so than failition-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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In post 66, Umlaut wrote: Meh, mech talk. I nommed myself because I'm town and I want to nom people who are town.
Weird. (Looks like you backed out of this quickly though)In post 26, Tsawwassen wrote: I won't nominate people who nominate themselves
Okay, Bertrand.In post 28, Moros wrote: i will nominate a person if and only if the person doesn't nominate themselfIn post 67, Umlaut wrote: Actually
HEAL: Tsawwassen
It's a bit moon-logicky but I find the immediate about-face towny.I'm a little bit tempted to significantly townread this sequence. The fact that there's 3 posts and the spacing of their timing I think points to town who saw something weird, then realized they felt it was not scummy, and then thought a bit more on it and realized that it might depend on previous experience level. I think it's a bit less likely to come from scum since Umlaut would have to manually decide to take both the step to make the second post, and the step to make the third post. Maybe way over-reading into things but curious if anyone sees what I'm seeing.
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Friendly heads-up: we avoid the word "lynch" on this site, most people use "eliminate" or "lim" for short instead.In post 103, Cutter B wrote: Will I eventually get lynched for being useless?
I guess one piece of advice is to look alive - if you're afraid of being perceived as useless, then be unafraid to throw opinions out there. If you're open about your opinions, you're unlikely to be perceived as useless. If you have trouble coming up with opinions that you feel have a solid foundation, try working with other players to analyze things and see if you can come to some kind of consensus.
Do you, Moros, want people to townread you? Or is it more like, you think Black is trying too hard?In post 102, Moros wrote:
i think you have felt the most like you want people to townread you.In post 96, Black wrote:
Why do you think I'm scum?In post 74, Moros wrote: from an objective perspective, i think there is a 72% chance that there's scum in the band. from a subjective perspective, i think it's Black.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Okay. Umlaut ishardtown. 125 is a townpost. The sort of audacity to call it out as what it would be + wanting to claim that there's absolutely no ambiguity to the townslip, comes from town dramatically more often. Scum kind of need to leave townslips as ambiguous things. But the even bigger thing to me is the statement about Black's self-respect; I feel like that's an angle scum would come up with to argue from extremely rarely.
Black, is probably town, I think. The townslip isn't actually clearing if she thought it was 5:2 rather than 5:4 (for clarity, the reason it would be clearing is because if she's scum, it'd be clear in her mind that there were 2 scum, but that isn't actually what she was mistaken about). I still think it's town-ish because setup mistakes I think are probably baseline more likely to come from town since scum are talking privately with someone. I also like her offhand post annoyed that no one was finding her as town, I think that's an angle she'd take a bit more often as town than as scum.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Moros's play toward Black is very interesting but I don't really feel all that strongly about it at this particular moment, still digesting it. Maybe I'm not a fan of the comment toward Umlaut but that might just because I think Umlaut is incredibly transparent town.-
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I feel like I have a better grasp on this game than average for page 7 for me.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Actually, question for Moros: what do you think is Black's scum motivation to bring up the dumbtell again? You say you think she has a motivation, but I don't see why she would go out of her way as scum to lie about the setup misunderstanding, given that it isn't actually mechanically clearing for her even if she did have the misunderstanding. I think it's much simpler to think that she did misunderstand the setup (as town or as scum).-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I agree with how scum perceive things but disagree about how town perceive things. Yes, scum will know it's a townslip with no ambiguity, but scum also know that that ambiguity will exist for the town; ergo, it's in their interest to muddle things, or (i think probably most commonly) simply not be the first to comment on them for fear of being disagreed with. Basically I think townslips have two interesting properties here: (1) they really test scum's ability to replicate a "typical town" mindset, and therefore would dissuade them from taking an immediate strong stance; and (2) they have potential to put someone firmly in the town category, which serves as disincentive for scum to point them out and advocate for their validity.In post 173, Moros wrote:
i don't think this is true at all. scum who sees a town as you say townslip will know it's a townslip with no ambiguity. town who sees a town townslip will be unsure.In post 160, implosion wrote: Okay. Umlaut ishardtown. 125 is a townpost. The sort of audacity to call it out as what it would be + wanting to claim that there's absolutely no ambiguity to the townslip, comes from town dramatically more often. Scum kind of need to leave townslips as ambiguous things. But the even bigger thing to me is the statement about Black's self-respect; I feel like that's an angle scum would come up with to argue from extremely rarely.-
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I am also sort of inclined to see Moros as town right now, less because the arguments it's making but more because it seems (ironically) pretty disinterested in being seen as town. It's lashing out at Black and Umlaut as being scummy, and is now unhealing me based on presumably my advocating for Umlaut being town. Seems like pretty poor scum play in this setup to be so fast to not want to work with people.-
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This isn't really answering the question. What is the scum motivation for wanting someone to bite on it at all? Normally the reason that scum would want people to notice a dumbtell is because, if the dumbtell is real, it implies that the person making the tell is town. But that doesn't apply to Black's case, she can have made this mistake and still be scum (because she was mistaken about the number of town in the setup, not the number of scum).In post 170, Moros wrote:
nobody bit on it the first time, so it didn't work. the second time it looked out of place and pushed to be more obvious for getting responses. it didn't feel like something town would say to me, because it felt unnecessary. i don't know if i think that still but i felt that way at the time.In post 165, implosion wrote: Actually, question for Moros: what do you think is Black's scum motivation to bring up the dumbtell again? You say you think she has a motivation, but I don't see why she would go out of her way as scum to lie about the setup misunderstanding, given that it isn't actually mechanically clearing for her even if she did have the misunderstanding. I think it's much simpler to think that she did misunderstand the setup (as town or as scum).-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Er, sort of? I mean Umlaut says that they think that's what Black meant, and I absolutely believe that Umlaut believes that's what Black meant because IMO it was the obvious interpretation of Black's posting to think that Black thought there were 4 scum. And if Umlaut believed that Black genuinely believed that there were 4 scum, then Umlaut would make the posts that they made; and if Umlaut is scum who thought that Black had townslipped by betraying that she thought there were 4 scum, Umlaut would not have made those posts because in practice scum don't want to give the townslipper hard credit. And Umlaut was hard committing to calling Black town for the slip, in essence; the fact that Black has now clarified that it isn't actually a townslip in that way doesn't change that Umlaut thought it was a slip in that way when they made their post (again, which I am confident of because I think it was the obvious reading of what Black had said).In post 182, May wrote: Doesn't umlaut say it's just a working theory in 128?
I hope that paragraph makes sense because it might not, and if it doesn't then there's a good chance I can't explain it any more clearly.
I mean, it's more about psychology than practicality. Practically, if someone did townslip, then a townie might notice it and sing its praises anyway. But psychologically, scum seeing a townie townslip is (i suspect) on average afraid to give the townslip hard credit for the reasons I've outlined.In post 182, May wrote: A lot of the theory about town slips and the wifom/risk/reward of calling out something that could be a townslip is generically true in much more platonically ideal cases but it neither costs scumUmlaut a correct coalition slot, nor do I see how scUmlaut would think it was guaranteed to cost a correct coalition slot.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Are you a known alt? I don't remember playing with you (apologies if we have!)In post 184, May wrote: I both feel like I have no idea how to read Implosion but vaguely feel there was like one game exactly one time where I identified his slot was scum so I feel like I'm supposed to know how. Like when my opponent played super giant into two facedown cards yesterday and I remembered I lost to that 3 times and beat it once but could not remember the details of the difference between those games and then lost and felt terrible as a learner of knowledge on planet earth
I am I think pretty obvious town in theory here; moreso than the towngame I just played at least (which Black was in). My RL circumstances are very peculiar right now so I have a lot of time and energy to devote to this game and the distraction is very welcomed and I suspect I would still be posting a fair amount if I were scum but I would not be enjoying it as much as I am lol.
This is interesting because it's softly a list of you, me and my townreads; and also because it seems quite the politically infeasible coalition at this moment (granted that Moros is being a bit ambiguous about its read on me, but it did unheal me and is scumreading Black and Umlaut)In post 189, Tsawwassen wrote: HEAL: Black, Moros, Tsawwassen, implosion, Umlaut-
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ceejay was also in that game but ceejay was scum in that game so probably wasn't really trying to read me-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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alas, i am comically bad at trying to figure out alts.
Fair.In post 195, May wrote: I want to townread the slot anyway for the multipost and was less worried about mistakenly coalling Umlaut vs. figuring out if you're tmi-ing. I no longer think the reasoning is thin enough to indicate that-
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I don't really have any material read on you yet.In post 198, Tsawwassen wrote: Is this a roundabout way of saying you don't townread me yet? It's ok I think you will come around though!
Looking forward to Aventurine's takes.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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words simply cannot express how voraciously i anticipate aventurine's takes. Each passing minute a torture.
ceejay, care to like, justify any of your takes or give us a sense of where you're at broadly?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Where does this come from? Is it by some comparison of our play with the 9:12 game, or otherwise?In post 232, ceejayvinoya wrote: I feel comfortable placing you and Black as town-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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ceejay called Cutter town for earnestness and Moros described her as lost in a towny way. I don't really take issue with townreading her per se, I just don't find myself agreeing with it at least yet. I don't really see why the looking at people by most vs least posts idea can't come from scum, including new scum. The Tsawwassen heal is fine but also like, not really outside of the generic scumrange of a typical new player in my mind. I think she can easily be scum who was using the splitting the player list into most vs least active thing as a way of just settling into the game and is continuing to just, generally interact with the game some. I guess maybe I do take issue with townreading her per se, i certainly think she can be town but I don't really buy that she's done anything particularly town-indicative.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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And I do think that if she is town she's certainly capable of doing something more town-indicative, and I don't think what she's done is particularly scum indicative either. I just don't really see any thought process that I think is particularly unlikely to come out of scum looking at the game and analyzing it from the perspective of being scum, yet.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Tsawwassen gives me very mixed vibes. I like their opening, I like some of their vibes in general. I don't really like 189 the more I look at it. I don't really like the hedginess of the black vs may comment, nor the statement that it looked distancey but that they're still fine having one of the two on it? like, what's the thought process there? "I think both these people might be scum distancing from each other so I'm okay having exactly one of them on the coalition"? Kinda looks contrived.
The list itself that they come up with also strikes me as a bit contrived. I mentioned at the time that it was me + my townreads + them and I mostly just said that as an amused throwaway line but there is kind of a Bayesian argument that winding up at that exact list is something that scum might be more likely to do, because it looks like a potentially politically viable coalition that has a scum inserted into it. 198 is also sort of weird, like the way that they list everyone in the game as either someone they trust or someone they don't trust, idk. It doesn't really ring true to me to the way that town approaches sorting.
This is not a strong read, and it's particularly muddled because of tsawwassen being one of those alts who is to some extent playing like an alt.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I think I like Moros more as time goes on, it feels broadly unagenda'd. Possible from scum who thinks they're comfortably going to be on whatever coalition winds up forming but I think the pattern of its play comes more often from town who is just throwing things out there.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I can definitely see this angle. I feel like I'm in no rush though.In post 271, May wrote: I agree with all of that intellectually but I feel better about healing a newbie that looks more natural than not than I want to heal one of the vets who are simulating their town game or playing their town game in similar ways. It's a fallible percentage play
In a way maybe it's a better heal than black even if I have more little things I like for black.
It's like
The absence of a mess in the kitchen is so much more of an indicator that a certain 8 year old didn't cook this evening than a certain 48 year old didn't cook this evening and there's an absence of anything sinister in the way cutter b presented the simple silly partition plan even if it's not very difficult to post about while carrying a scum mindset
Pedit-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Aventurine, it feels like you're taking a very particular approach to interpreting information in this game - i don't want to say that it's to view things as surface-level, because it isn't quite that. But it seems like you're interpreting certain bits of information at face value. You see that Black was asking someone if they thought she was partnered to Umlaut and that she was asking you why you didn't have Umlaut in your coalition, so you interpret this as Black being partnered to Umlaut and scouting things out and trying to advocate for her scumbuddy. You see Umlaut "white-knighting" Black, and interpret this as them being partnered and presumably Umlaut advocating back.
This seems to me like it would be an out of place leap of logic in a normal game, but in this setup it seems entirely inapt. Of course some town members are going to white knight other town members or ask why people don't think that they're town in this setup - it's a setup explicitly about town members finding other town members and coming to a consensus on a group of town members. This kind of discourse is something I'd expect to see from town.
I'm also offput by just how little you seem to trust your own read - you say you're "not quite sure" how to read Black, and that you "don't know if Black is town or not, but think that these posts are weird" - and yet, you say you're more actively concerned about Black than about anyone else. You'd said that your current coalition is more about who you're excluding than who you're including, but the person you feel the worst in the game about, you still think could easily be town? How confident are you that your proposed coalition is actually a good coalition?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This post also fits in with the mindset I mentioned above - you're jumping from someone asking questions about your coalition members, to that person wanting you to change your coalition to something different. Why do you jump to that conclusion rather than e.g. Black wanting to understand your thought process to read you better?In post 295, Aventurine wrote:
Why do you want me to put implosion in my coalition so badly?In post 292, Black wrote:
......? He's the only person you didn't mentionIn post 291, Aventurine wrote: Because I couldn't really be bothered to
And yeah you talked about implosion but I want to know why you're putting ceejay in over him-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I would also like to be explicit here that I do not have a read on Aventurine right now. I'm not convinced that this line of argumentation is scummy. I understand why Black sees it that way but I don't really see it that way, at least not yet.
My feelings on the game as a whole right now are that I like myself, Umlaut, and then Moros/Black (less confidently than Umlaut) as coalition members; I want to find a fifth. I don't feel confident on anyone else right now; I don't like Tsawwassen at this moment but everyone else I'm sort of not really leaning strongly on at the moment.
Also an open question to people broadly: how do you feel about compromising? I feel like the current state of the game is very, people describing Their Coalition. It feels like there's relatively little working together to build cohesion - there's a bit in that Black came to agree with Tsawwassen but on the whole it feels a bit like in this gamestate people aren't going to compromise a whole lot. Which is totally fine right now given how much time we have until deadline but I just want to throw out there that, eventually, it will become less okay.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Not really sure that scum makes that sudden of a post here very frequently especially before I made my post clarifying that I don't scumread it.-
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I don't really see how this is in line with Aventurine's play? It's not like Aventurine has spent the past page waxing nostalgic about ceejay being town and demanding everyone add him to their coalitions. On the contrary Aventurine has staunchly refused to explain why it wanted ceejay in its coalition. And if Aventurine is scum with ceejay and just needs one of them in the coalition, then I don't see why Aventurine would need to shoehorn ceejay into its coalition at all - after all, Aventurine will already be in its own coalition.In post 314, Black wrote:
If you are scum with ceejay then one of you has to make the coalition or else you just loseIn post 306, Aventurine wrote: Okay. Explain to me why my actions are scum-indicative, then. Tell me what I have to gain from these posts-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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i drew scum in this setup twice in a row and i'm just glad to finally get to play it as town-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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My personal individual confidence level at this moment is pretty high, but I certainly can be wrong and am open to being persuaded if you have reasons to disagree. (I also am looking forward to seeing more reads/analysis by them)-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I feel like the baseline opinion that I've come to after many years is that changing opinions is, in most forms, a towntell. I agree that a natural significant opinion change is sort of a priori unlikely, but I think scum deciding to make a post where they abandon their whole-ass worldview and pick a new one is also quite unlikely, and we must be in one of those two universes. I think it's particularly unlikely for scum Aventurine here because I'm not sure what it really gains out of this maneuver, Black was actively scumreading it and I was kind of being coy but I don't think my post sounded exactly thrilled with its play.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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today was my first truly busy day in like 2 weeks. Tomorrow also likely to be busy, i'll catch up at some point-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I don't understand how you go from rationalizing it as some sort of distancing play, to your statement that you're okay with having one of the two of them in your coalition but not both. Distancing typically describes something scum do toward other scum. If you rationalized it as "Black might be distancing from May", why would your reaction to this not be "we should omit both Black and May from the coalition"?In post 371, Tsawwassen wrote: Black was vibing with May's RVS self heal in the opening, then I healed May. Then Black suddenly signaled for caution about putting May in the coalition 61. I found this sudden vibe change a little odd, and rationalized it as some sort of distancing play. It's a post with low stakes but high payoff.
I don't really feel viscerally from your posting that the people you put in the coalition are people that you evaluated and came to trust and townread, rather than people that you as scum felt were politically expedient to call town.In post 371, Tsawwassen wrote: I don't really see what's the issue with me putting people I trust and townread in the coalition?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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It's possible I'm focusing too much on the distancing play comment, I can tend to get caught up on like, what I view as logical missteps. But
I still just don't understand how the thought process here goes from "might have been a distancing play" to "don't want the coalition to haveIn post 189, Tsawwassen wrote:Townreading Black somewhat, but not gonna lie I got a gut feeling that Black vs May might have been some sort of distancing play, so I don't want the coalition to have both of them in it, I'm fine with Black being in it though!bothof them in it".-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I think in the abstract I broadly feel like May's posting is more likely to come from town than from scum and I'm sure I could find examples to justify feeling that way but I don't know how confident I feel in it-
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Really would love to see more significant content from Umlaut. I don't really like having to de facto de-coalition my once- and maybe still-strongest townread for inactivity but I can't really complain.
Tsawwassen's recent slate of posting is very interesting, mulling around in my head right now-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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If you originally thought that the sequence was scummy, why didn't you mention in thread that you thought it was scummy at the time you were having those thoughts?In post 418, tired person wrote:In post 411, Tsawwassen wrote: I think we are all converging on a coalition
I originally thought that this sequence was scummy because i thought tas as town should oppose coalitions that don't include him (i know i would). but now i think tas is actually town because it does seem this coalition aligns with his reads and i think he might just be happy to have a coalition that aligns with his reads more or less... but this only makes me want to oppose this coalition even more because if tas and i are town, the chances of this coalition succeeding is very very low. an if he's scum then i was initially right that he is trying to push a coalition with his partner.In post 416, Tsawwassen wrote: Hmm, ok we are on the precipice of convergence-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Also what the hecking heck is this question? Is this a real serious question? Did you genuinely think there was any possibility that Tsawwassen would answer in the affirmative, if so why given the coalition that they'd just said they thought was good and if not then why ask it?In post 421, tired person wrote: tas how do you feel about the following, drastically different coalition?
tired person, black, tas, aventurine, may-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I can say from recent experience being scum in a coalition game where both scum were on the outs, I think there isn't really an obvious way to play that situation frankly. Every option feels pretty bad in that moment. I wouldn't really expect scum to act in any way in particular, i think it'd depend a lot on the person and the game. I ultimately decided to support an all-town coalition in the hopes that my scumbuddy would get in and that the associatives would pay off later because i thought i was never getting on it.-
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