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Post #1400 (isolation #401) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 8:05 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
Also tonight I'll confirm whether or not I was pinned all three nights or if Cakez is probably a true ascetic. If I do get a clear, I won't claim it until necessary
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1408 (isolation #402) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 8:13 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
In post 1403, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
How does this relate to her being town? She may be more likely to be town, yes, but as you yourself have shown with Jacob, unlikely things can and do happen.
I believe Skygazer is town and I'm seeing my strongest town-read disagree completely with me so I'm talking about it. I can't convince her that I'm right (or her convince me that she's right) if we just throw the weight of the entire case at each other because we're both independently biased, that doesn't work. So I'm trying to pull it apart as best I can
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
In post 1403, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
How does this relate to her being town? She may be more likely to be town, yes, but as you yourself have shown with Jacob, unlikely things can and do happen.
I believe Skygazer is town and I'm seeing my strongest town-read disagree completely with me so I'm talking about it. I can't convince her that I'm right (or her convince me that she's right) if we just throw the weight of the entire case at each other because we're both independently biased, that doesn't work. So I'm trying to pull it apart as best I can
Adding to this. She believes it's scum!AI when I disagree so I'm talking about it
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
I was so scared that I would do all that math and counting the roles thread, for a hammer to just be placed and have me delete all the work I was doing lmfao
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1416 (isolation #406) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:01 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
In post 1414, Argonauts wrote:
And frankly the "odds don't matter, oh no a hammer intent waaaaaait stop let me calculate the odds!!!" comes off pretty desperate.
-Atalanta
Bitch please, I was excited and didn't want that to go nowhere
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
Wrong. Jackson correctly calculated the odds of a particular person being a neighbor of a certain alignment (I assume, I didn't double-check the specific math) and then kept spinning the numbers into the overall odds of drawing a neighbor role using the total number of players, which is irrelevant here. We're not talking about the odds of
someone
in the game getting a neighbor role, we're talking about the odds of
Skygazer
getting one as a certain alignment. Which apparently is 3/86 as town, 2/26 as Mafia OR 1/25 as Werewolf. So like I said, notably higher likelihood of it being Mafia.
-Atalanta
Care to explain why it's irrelevant? Because I disagree entirely, the raw chances are shown better when taken into consideration repeated events. Sure, the odds are great and all but like does 3/86 mean anything to you? There's no equal comparison there because the amount of roles in each faction are so different from each other, so I made them equal and fair based on the amount of roles possible AND the amount of roles that we're dealing with (10v3v1)
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
Unfortunately for you, the team what wants to vote you out :twisted:
Also, and maybe this is a Drew read(err, Asclepius read), but it feels to me that this wagon kinda stagnating and even people hopping off makes me feel like scum thought the wagon would naturally dissipate.......but lack of activity these past few days have forced the hand of the members of scum to leave the wagon to make sure their buddy is not limmed.
Like, usually an early day wagon doesn't stick, so no need for scum to worry too much.......but this one has stuck, with no real counter wagon.
This obviously is only relevant if Sky is Team Scumbutt, but just was something I was thinking about at work today.
-Asclepius
Just before I say what I wanted to say, you'd need some pretty agreeable people in a hydra now that I've realised it cuz imagine a hydra just voting the people they want out and then refusing to let another head get their vote, who also just votes whenever the heads change it. Crazy
Regarding this post, I wanted to sit on this to see what I thought of it given some time to think (I responded to it initially to acknowledge it). What would be the difference between a stagnant wagon (because scum would hope it drops off) to a stagnant wagon because the Town likes where the gamestate is?
I've seen the argument "stagnant game, scum controlled game" my words that I came up with on the spot but I've never seen it framed in the way you said it here. Can you elaborate on that?
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1430 (isolation #416) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:22 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
It reads that's reasoning on your end to consider Sky more wolf, but then you say it's only relevant if they're red so perhaps this is just a post to consider post-flip and I'm reading it wrong?
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1442 (isolation #422) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:47 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
In post 1439, lucca261 wrote:
not based on just this, was skimming the last few pages and I felt you being pretty defensive around their spot on a way you aren't with Black, for instance
then got curious
Like with the math? Or more than that? But nah, I town-read them pretty strongly
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
In post 1441, JacksonVirgo wrote:
That was a playful bitch please, should have expressed my tone better
I'm familiar with the phrase so I know you didn't mean harm, but I probably just wouldn't use that one anymore. Some people haven't heard it used that way or they may just not like being called that even if it has playful undertones
Yeah good idea, thank you
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1454 (isolation #424) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:42 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
In post 1449, Argonauts wrote:
I have and it does not matter. I am not on 'playful banter' terms with Jackson and there is no reason for him to have thought we could be. It is an offensive slur used to demean a certain group to keep them in their place and its usage here was totally in line with that. It is not up to him to decide when it's okay to direct a slur at someone else and they should just be okay with it.
I'm sorry for upsetting you, that was the last thing I wanted to do. I didn't think that I was not able to banter with you just because we weren't on particular terms, I don't really understand that but just knowing it's important to you I will stop. I also genuinely did not know the word was that loaded either, so I am sorry for my ignorance there.
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1463 (isolation #427) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 12:54 pm
Postby JacksonVirgo »
People won't just listen to you because you were right on a mislim. That's a little silly. If you want something (aka shadow) you should push it now, not consolidate in hopes of you having a better basis for your push tomorrow.
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1571 (isolation #435) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:28 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
In post 1569, Save The Dragons wrote:
I don't think it's a bad play because you actually are convincing people to vote me? What the heck are you talking about
Bro you have two votes
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1589 (isolation #436) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:50 am
Postby JacksonVirgo »
Just as I told STD I'll get back to you in more depth relatively soon, I'm not liking what they're doing now by any stretch of the imagination. They're seemingly flailing and stressing over something incredibly little (from what I am reading). I'll put more thought into it in a few hours
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
Black: I am putting in effort, it's silly to think scum me would get off sky it wouldn't do anything
Also Black: convinces people to vote Std by saying "more votes on std"
Wanna vote Black with me?
Lol that is never happening
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
In post 1593, JacksonVirgo wrote:
It's hardly out of nowhere, though tbf jumping off shadow when you were getting pushed is a good look
I am not following
What part?
Did not parse any
What really?
I'm saying that the wagon didn't form out of nowhere, it's been cooking for a long time. It's just actually happening now. In regards to the second part, you got frustrated (or whatever emotion that was) to the wagon forming on you but you didn't commit harder to the current wagon. You jumped off it, which I don't expect from a wolf
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
In post 1589, JacksonVirgo wrote:
Just as I told STD I'll get back to you in more depth relatively soon, I'm not liking what they're doing now by any stretch of the imagination. They're seemingly flailing and stressing over something incredibly little (from what I am reading). I'll put more thought into it in a few hours
I don't think this is an accurate take at all
I'll check for myself when I analyse them and shadow
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
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Post #1693 (isolation #455) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:49 pm
Postby JacksonVirgo »
In post 1692, Argonauts wrote:
What I mean here though, is that a good amount of the time the first wagon of the day is not the ending wagon, I mean it could end up being the vote but not before other wagons start to happen. So, even with Sky close to a lim scum didn't really need to be proactive to end the wagon initially since the natural ebb and flow of the game would kick in and eventually another wagon would happen......but that wasn't happening since the game was going a bit slow.
I agree with you about the starting wagon stuff. But that didn't really answer my question, unless I'm just really unable to think properly cuz of my headache. I already explained my read on Sky, not really feeling up to repeating myself but I can find the post for you if you want me to
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
In post 1710, JacksonVirgo wrote:
Maybe that's a cultural difference, do you usually not claim guilties immediately here?
What kind of question is this? You've been here for years and have 10k posts, surely you're aware of various strategies investigatives might take with regard to their results. In my admittedly limited experience they're typically shy about outright claiming a guilty and prefer to just make a strong push in hopes of not getting taken out the next night.
-Atalanta
I played here about 10% of the total time I've played mafia, including my substantial hiatus which I'm just recently coming back from and I've never had someone say what you just said regarding hiding a red-check so I was just asking if that's a thing that happens here. Where I'm from, we claim guilties immediately. There's not much utility in hiding a guilty as a 1 for 1 always benefits the Town, I don't wanna play mindgames and push people and claim a guilty later if it doesn't work, that idea sounds so awful to me.
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"