Open 902: Frienemies Blitz | Postgame

[Ranger]

try to convince me drew or black or something if that's your solve

My solve is based on PoE.

I'm town.

I believe davesaz's efforts have consistently shown himself to be town. I maintain davesaz's actions at the end of D1 were town-indicative. davesaz saw what he believed to be masons, then when he saw Dannflor was a mason, he hammered. He was handling things as well as any town player could. He's stepped up efforts including going through the votes today and has been putting in the effort. Naerys previously mentioned davesaz as town is more proactive, yet that proactivity is present now. Particularly given I'm at L-1 and davesaz as scum has a free ride to lylo and could have guiltlessly hammered me, I feel he has overwhelming reasons to be town.

I strongly believe T-Bone to be town. T-Bone has had the exact same mindset as me for the majority of the game. He and I have come from the same perspective and same approach and while our actions and conclusions may differ slightly, I vehemently believe his viewpoint matches mine because he shares my alignment. He is looking at things in much the same light as me, in a way I feel indicates he's solving as town who knows he's at a disadvantage.

If you are town as I believe you are, that limits the scum to three names.

Of them, I currently believe Naerys is the most town. I can see my gripes with Naerys as playstyle-based, and underneath, Naerys has shown signs she genuinely believes her reads and pushes to be town. I shouldn't need to convince you of Naerys being town because you're the one critical of me for having scumread her, and it is in part you having given the viewpoint Naerys is town which pushed her into the most likely town for me.

The remaining are Black and Doctor Drew.
Black's strongest reason for being town is being a wagon on D1 pushed by usesPython, yet that doesn't clear her by any extent. I find my reasons for townreading other slots far more compelling, especially as from my perspective, it's impossible for the usesPython wagon to not have scum on it.

Black (2):

usesPython,

Ranger

Dannflor (2):

Doctor Drew,

light_ganski

davesaz (1):

T-Bone

light_ganski (1):

JacksonVirgo

Unless the scumteam were precisely {T-Bone, Doctor Drew}, the usesPython wagon

must

have scum on it, and that puts Black in the same category as {Black, davesaz, Naerys}. Of them, Black is by far the least town. So I believe it's far more likely the Black-usesPython interaction was an orchestrated bus rather than scum losing out on D1.

This in particular because I had called usesPython a mason, and usesPython was online after. usesPython had the opportunity to confirm my claim and get players to potentially unvote. They deliberately chose not to. This indicates they preferred to go down over the alternative.

Doctor Drew has shown none of his signature fire this game. He's been lackluster the entire game. While Doctor Drew has been lazy as town before, in this extreme it is suspect. He has nothing town to his name, and though that doesn't condemn him, the PoE in tandem does.

[Ranger]

try to convince me drew or black or something if that's your solve

My solve is based on PoE.

I'm town.

I believe davesaz's efforts have consistently shown himself to be town. I maintain davesaz's actions at the end of D1 were town-indicative. davesaz saw what he believed to be masons, then when he saw Dannflor was a mason, he hammered. He was handling things as well as any town player could. He's stepped up efforts including going through the votes today and has been putting in the effort. Naerys previously mentioned davesaz as town is more proactive, yet that proactivity is present now. Particularly given I'm at L-1 and davesaz as scum has a free ride to lylo and could have guiltlessly hammered me, I feel he has overwhelming reasons to be town.

I strongly believe T-Bone to be town. T-Bone has had the exact same mindset as me for the majority of the game. He and I have come from the same perspective and same approach and while our actions and conclusions may differ slightly, I vehemently believe his viewpoint matches mine because he shares my alignment. He is looking at things in much the same light as me, in a way I feel indicates he's solving as town who knows he's at a disadvantage.

If you are town as I believe you are, that limits the scum to three names.

Of them, I currently believe Naerys is the most town. I can see my gripes with Naerys as playstyle-based, and underneath, Naerys has shown signs she genuinely believes her reads and pushes to be town. I shouldn't need to convince you of Naerys being town because you're the one critical of me for having scumread her, and it is in part you having given the viewpoint Naerys is town which pushed her into the most likely town for me.

The remaining are Black and Doctor Drew.
Black's strongest reason for being town is being a wagon on D1 pushed by usesPython, yet that doesn't clear her by any extent. I find my reasons for townreading other slots far more compelling, especially as from my perspective, it's impossible for the usesPython wagon to not have scum on it.

Black (2):

usesPython,

Ranger

Dannflor (2):

Doctor Drew,

light_ganski

davesaz (1):

T-Bone

light_ganski (1):

JacksonVirgo

Unless the scumteam were precisely {T-Bone, Doctor Drew}, the usesPython wagon

must

have scum on it, and that puts Black in the same category as {Black, davesaz, Naerys}. Of them, Black is by far the least town. So I believe it's far more likely the Black-usesPython interaction was an orchestrated bus rather than scum losing out on D1.

This in particular because I had called usesPython a mason, and usesPython was online after. usesPython had the opportunity to confirm my claim and get players to potentially unvote. They deliberately chose not to. This indicates they preferred to go down over the alternative.

Doctor Drew has shown none of his signature fire this game. He's been lackluster the entire game. While Doctor Drew has been lazy as town before, in this extreme it is suspect. He has nothing town to his name, and though that doesn't condemn him, the PoE in tandem does.

Fix'd.

[Ranger]

usesPython (7):

gob

, Naerys,

Dannflor, humaneatingmonkey

, Black, Save The Dragons, davesaz

[HAMMER]

Black (2):

usesPython

,

Ranger

Dannflor (2):

Doctor Drew,

light_ganski

davesaz (1):

T-Bone

light_ganski (1):

JacksonVirgo

[/area]

I feel that point bears reillustration.

Unless the scumteam is precisely {Doctor Drew, T-Bone}, there

must

be scum on the usesPython wagon.

{Naerys, Black, Save the Dragons, davesaz} are the possibilities.

usesPython was around at the time of deadline and not posting despite being online at the time. They were deliberately not posting. To me, this indicates the final two votes were not scum hopping on ({STD, davesaz}), and the scum would be in {Naerys, Black}.

As a reminder, I had claimed usesPython was a mason. usesPython never popped in after 872, despite being online. They were online after my claim and never posted. To me, this says they didn't want to try and save themself.

I believe this not only implies the scum were in {Naerys, Black} and the prime alternative wagon (Black) wasn't desirable.

[Ranger]

i mean i can't argue that drew has about as much bite to him as a pool noodle this game

Which alignment does this typically indicate more likely for him?

[Ranger]

Unless it's just Ranger and whomever. That's a compliment, that being able to logic your way through all of this seems like it's possible. I'd never be able to write that much convincingly.

Though I sparingly roll scum, I'm confident in my skills. They translate outside of scumgames surprisingly well. I don't go down easily regardless of alignment.

However, you've reached the same conclusion I did.

Black + Doctor Drew is my current solve.

The main reason for townreading Black is the D1 Black wagon led by usesPython, which Black voting usesPython in response. That is far from clearing in my books and Black's play has signs of being scum throughout.

[Ranger]

Naerys is willing to vote Doctor Drew.
T-Bone is presumably willing to.
davesaz is open to it.
Black allegedly has interest in the idea.

That's the entire remaining playerlist if you read STD as town.

Yes. Don't you think forcing Doctor Drew's scumbuddy to either bus or be seen as suspect for

not

putting their money where there mouth is, would be worth it?

I do.

If Doctor Drew is scum as I suspect, wagoning him does nothing but good. Either we get a scum elimination, or we go into tomorrow with the information on who was unwilling to vote Drew despite allegedly having interest to. Win-win.

[Ranger]

unless ur scum so like
bye bye argument

As I'm town, I'll be operating with the knowledge I'll flip so.

[Ranger]

Why is Black so low

Because I don't think this is Black as town, I spot signs of a Black powerwolf performance, and I think Black is scum with (usesPython) and (Doctor Drew).
Plus, I've reasons for townreading most players; Black isn't among them.

I made the minor edit of replacing the masons originally featured, yet this now applies again.

It's also a gem because it demonstrates usesPython initially was defensive of Black. usesPython demonstrated an initial defense of Black to my push, so what changed?

[Ranger]

{UsesPython, Naerys}
{Ausuka}
{light_ganski}
{Save the Dragons}
{T-Bone}
{Doctor Drew, davesaz}
{Cook}
{gob}
{Black, Dannflor}

I actually townread everyone from Drew above.

Why is Black so low

Are you townreading me?

You are not on our radar, you're kinda just off doing your own thing

In hindsight, the interactions between usesPython and Black were rather stilted. 462 even defended Black, and 436 stated Black was townier. Their next mention of Black was 842. They went from overall positive on Black with no scumread, defending Black, to wagoning Black.

There was no trajectory to the read, just a sudden hard swap.

[Ranger]

VOTE: usesPython
Briefly skimmed over why people are voting for me and their vote feels the worst by far. It feels like they are just trying to make any wagon possible happen instead of actually trying to catch scum

This is true, yet it also applies to Black's read on usesPython. Black demonstrated usesPython in the middle as 'good'. (Notably, this contradicted an earlier take on the same list.) Black never demonstrated a scumread on usesPython. Though she stated willingness to, she never followed through until after she was already being wagoned.

Black was making the usesPython wagon happen without trying to case aiming for scum; I believe it was because Black already knew they were, and didn't need to reach the conclusion.

I also think it's indicative of Black's play throughout the game. Black has been making wagons possible, and not trying to catch scum.

[Ranger]

Spoiler: Drew ISO

Drew's first few posts are jokes

There's an interaction with python in 86, 88 and 89 that feels strange. Python defends Drew by saying people can't scumcase him, Drew asks why not, and then python responds to him but is talking like they aren't responding to him with the whole "scumreading Drew is like a fine wine". I'm not sure why they don't say "scumreading

you

is like a fine wine." It's a weird perspective for python to have. Not super compelling partner evidence but if python was wary of interacting with their partner directly then they might have subconsciously used this verbiage

@Drew what was the townread on python in 369 about?

Drew invokes python in 377. This doesn't really feel partnered. Maybe if the plan was to interact a bunch for theatre I guess. It feels like a lot of Drew's posting is about Python around this point in the game

385 another open defense of python

391 joking with python

472 invoking python again. The amount of times Drew has talked to or mentioned python is starting to seem sus

I thought 516 was weird when I read it and I still think it's weird. Drew is completely misrepping me here, and I don't think he ever responded to me when I called him out on it

677 Drew continues his pressure on gob. I like dave's 660

@Drew what was your scumread on gob based on? I scumread him too at the time but my reasons were because of how he was interacting with my slot. I don't see any reasons for you to be suspicious of him here but maybe I'm missing it

I actually like 704 and it's the towniest post so far. It feels like Drew is thinking about the players on a deeper than surface level here

765 the threat to python to snap vote them feels bad

778 back to Gob when gob's wagon was tied 3-3 with python's. Could be scum trying to manipulate the wagons in the scum teams favor here

Drew gets pressure and switches back to Dann immediately in 786. What. This reeks of Drew knowing that going back to gob and making his wagon overtake python's was scummy

Drew's reasons for not voting python in 1216 are believable but they could still come from scum

1219 a little WIFOM here. I would like to look at Drew scumgames to see if this is actually true. Off the top of my head I know he didn't bus kyouko in a recent game together. He did try to bus StD in Wilson 7p, so there is some truth here

1272 - @Drew, does python's flip not make you feel any better about gob?

I'm not getting much in Drew's 1v1 with the monkey. Drew feels a little defensive but that's about it, probably NAI

tl;dr - Still unsure about Drew here but I have a much better feel for his slot than I did before. I would like Drew to answer some of these questions

Black has a favorable outlook on Doctor Drew as well.

[Ranger]

Kinda don't want a Drew wagon here, he's pretty easy to viberead as the game goes on and hasn't pinged us yet

This is also important. There were people floating around wagoning Doctor Drew here, and usesPython protected him.

[Ranger]

im thinking we lim python

Would definitely go you over Python

Drew was against wagoning Python here.

[Ranger]

Ranger if I were scum I would have already hammered you here

Certainly possible.

Still doubtful. You're methodical. Quickhammering an elimination you know is going to land on town is a good way to throw away an advantage you otherwise would've had, in your perspective.

I started my Drew push while you weren't around. You wouldn't have known there was a

disadvantage

to waiting. Scum players aren't perfect and can make tactical errors.

I believe the odds you hammer me instantly as scum are not high, regardless of your alignment here.

[Ranger]

Ok now do the same thing when I flip town

I admit. If you flip town, we've already lost.

I believe the odds of a town win are higher if I push you regardless of your alignment. I happen to believe you're scum, although if it's {Naerys, Black}, you can help demonstrate it today.

[Ranger]

unless ur scum so like
bye bye argument

As I'm town, I'll be operating with the knowledge I'll flip so.

Youre allowed to do that but you can't posit your argument as fact for everyone else because we don't know your alignment and if you are scum your argument is invalid

It'll be factual in about one day, given the complete lack of traction on Doctor Drew.

[Ranger]

Have a headache today so I will prod dodge and try again tomorrow sorry all.

It's tomorrow now. Please vote Doctor Drew.

[Ranger]

I had a dream in which Black flipped scum,lol.

Listen to your dreams, they're often prophetic.

[Ranger]

oof i wanna vote you just for that post

Listen to your desires, they'll take you places.

[Ranger]

VC 4.03

Votecount 4.03

Ranger (3):

Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys

[E-1]

VOTE: drew

VOTE: Nae

UNVOTE: I guess

I'm confused and alarmed.

How did I go from three votes to zero votes in the span of five posts in one hour?

I'm second-guessing everything but I don't know what it means. Something suddenly feels wrong and I don't know what.

[Ranger]

UNVOTE: Doctor Drew
There's 20 hours, I'm fairly confident I can reapply this vote before deadline.

For now, I don't want Drew hammered.

How did I go from my Drew push having no momentum to my wagon disintegrating? I'm not that town.

[Ranger]

To be clear; I'll take accountability if Drew is scum and my vote makes his fade harder or even not happen.

As I said, I can and shall reapply the vote tomorrow if I can't figure out what's bothering me about this. By default, he's still my preference. I'm still concerned and want time to investigate STD/Naerys in particular. Maybe not as a team, as potential scum. I'll recast the vote if I still feel good about it, have no better ideas, or fail to do this work by tomorrow.

There's 20 hours until deadline; I'll cast a vote in about 16.

[Ranger]

I don't think you are town don't worry

Then why did you unvote me?

Why did you not try to get Naerys and Drew back on me?

Why did you turn on Doctor Drew rather than try and rally Naerys and Drew onto me?

I'm under the impression a town-STD would care enough about his reads to not be dissuaded by my wagon's collapse and would double-down on me.

[Ranger]

But that sequence of vote was weird. Black already said she would hammer Ranger, so Ranger was as good as dead. Why?

My question exactly. I don't understand. It's not what I was expecting from my Doctor Drew push. I expected my wagon to still go through, or if Drew did go through, for my wagon to remain.

Especially after my initial push received no support. You hadn't voted Doctor Drew, yet he got to l-1 twice and would've been hammered by STD if not for my unvote.

I don't know what it means.

[Ranger]

what are you talking about
Why would I just sit on you
I've already cased you plenty
It didn't convince anyone because everyone stopped voting you

I was at l-1. davesaz indicated he may swap to hammer me. Black already indicated she was going to hammer me. Apparently T-Bone had interest too.

I've seen you on numerous occasions as town see your preferred wagon lose votes, and your response was to engage the people who had unvoted, ask them to return, and explain why.

I would expect you to talk to Drew about why he shouldn't pursue Naerys and explain why Naerys is town.
I would expect you to ask Naerys to return, maybe explaining why Drew was town if you believe it, or if you don't then explaining why I am a higher priority.

I would only expect you to unvote if it was accompanied by a vote swap with you scumreading the player you're swapping to, even if less so than me.

It's alarming to me and I'm trying to understand why you would give up there when there was no reason to.

[Ranger]

Drew changing his vote as a response to Naerys is normal. I guess STD's change of vote is immaterial to the situation. Or is it?

I am questioning everything including you right now.

I agree, Drew voting Naerys is normal regardless of his alignment. It's a small sign Drew's potentially down, perhaps the first in the game. However, the overall picture for him still suggests scum. He lacks his bite and the lack of interest in his slot the entire game is suspect. Everyone stated they could vote him; I thought people weren't going to follow through yet apparently they did, so now that's a concern.

I think Naerys's swap was probably still town, although I'm not sure. There's concern it was a strategic swap because Drewtown here would ensure a scum win tomorrow, although overall I think I lean towards this being paranoia and Naerys being town. She may be my second-strongest townread, behind davesaz now.

You seem oddly passive right now since you are not under pressure, and while you're providing some reasonable commentary, you're not giving any more definitive analysis and concrete conclusions. You've avoided taking sides and voting, despite having a preference to suspect Doctor Drew. I think I still lean town, but I'm worried the masons game-long suspicion of you may have merit, so I'm not as confident as I was.

Save The Dragons is my main focus here, as I need to figure out his mindset. If I can see his thoughts as town, he is likely still town, yet I'm struggling to understand his view.

Overall, current thoughts;
{davesaz}
{Naerys}
{T-Bone}
{Save the Dragons, Black}
{Doctor Drew}

Notably the bottom tiers aren't scumreads, just least town rn.

[Ranger]

I don't fucking know

Though I remain marginally concerned about this potentially being an elaborate act, I lean towards believing you. I believe 2495. I may see the thoughts, and I think I understand.

I'm going to bed now and for now, I'll risk this.

VOTE: Doctor Drew

As a reminder, this is L-1.

{davesaz}
{Naerys}
{T-Bone, Save the Dragons}
{Black}
{Doctor Drew}

This is where I'm at rn.

[Ranger]

I am not you

Yes, I try to view actions from your perspective not mine. I've struggled to see your actions as coming from you as town, yet I think I may see them now. I'm okay at least risking a Doctor Drew l-1.

[Ranger]

Ranger (3): Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys [E-1]
T-Bone (1): Black
Doctor Drew (3): Ranger, T-Bone, davesaz
Black, in this hypothetical vote count, who are you hammering?

Ranger. I think both scum would be on the Drew wagon here

Doctor Drew (3):

davesaz, Naerys, Ranger

[E-1]

[/area]

VOTE: Ranger

Interesting.

The implication here is Black is saying the current Drew wagon has two scum on it still, despite the names not aligning. The third Doctor Drew voter is Naerys, not T-Bone.

This implies Black is calling the scumteam {Ranger, davesaz}.

That matches none of Black's actions.

Perhaps you'll take note of this blatant cognitive dissonance tomorrow.

[Ranger]

Next day is mylo if we are wrong

How confident are you in your Ranger read

Naerys I don't think you ever answered this

Naerys is far from the player most guilty of not following through on their actions.

I believe that falls to you.

You've been pushing T-Bone all day.

You're leaving him as the hammer vote.

Your main suspect has the hammer power and you have said nothing about it.

[Ranger]

pinging tbone for sweet death to end this miserable day

It would perhaps be a lot less miserable if you engaged me without assuming I'm scum, looked at my analysis, and added your own without the preexisting biases.

I believe Black has notably demonstrated a severe contradiction which you should be taking interest in. She had previously shown no scumread on me. She indicated if the wagons were Drew v Ranger with the Drew voters as {Ranger, davesaz, T-Bone} she would vote Ranger because both scum would be on Drew, but her pushes have been on T-Bone with a small side of davesaz. She made no mention of me, except when engaging me on my reads, and the entire time she did, she was treating me as town.

Her sudden vote in that light is rather suspect, particularly as it gives the hammer to her greatest suspect.

[Ranger]

Why Ranger over T-Bone though

I don't really think Ranger and dave are both scum. Would all 3 scum pile on me in order like this?
I feel like T-Bone and one of Ranger/dave is probably just the solve here. Drew is the X-Factor

VOTE: T-Bone

Jackson flipping town kinda threw me for a loop. I don't really have much confidence in my reads anymore and I kinda just want to sheep a townread today

I still feel like Naerys and StD are town but I'm not even confident about them anymore

VOTE: ranger

Ranger t-bone drew should contain atleast 1 scum

I wonder what Black's sheeping a townread today would look like.

I'd rather fade T-Bone over you. Maybe you could help me?

black i feel like you just said my post was long but do you have any actual thoughts about it?

I think it's good analysis but I feel like part of your read is impacted by wanting to throw a pie in HEM's face postgame if you're right

If you're not critical of Black for this play, then it is your loss to deserve.

I understand being critical of my defeatism or whatever but I don't think you're looking at it from my perspective. I was wrong about gob and wrong about Jackson despite having pretty strong gut reads on them. Yeah it happens but sometimes I just feel like I'm doing more harm than good when it comes to my pushes

Next day is mylo if we are wrong

How confident are you in your Ranger read

To me it seems like a lot of your read is based around her pushing you

This is a poll for the audience. Without looking, what can you recall about Drew's game? Do you remember any reads he pushed or significant votes he made? Just give me your honest recollection before doing anything else.

All I can recall about Drew's game was he pushed gob and he pushed Ranger. He's been coasting under my radar for a hot minute

I think the question he asked me was weird and I like that Dave pointed it out

Ranger (3): Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys [E-1]
T-Bone (1): Black
Doctor Drew (3): Ranger, T-Bone, davesaz

Black, in this hypothetical vote count, who are you hammering?

Ranger. I think both scum would be on the Drew wagon here

Ranger if I were scum I would have already hammered you here

This has been the majority of Black's content today. She's been primarily focused on T-Bone as scum, yet left T-Bone with the hammering vote wordlessly. She has been interacting with me and pointed out a willingness to vote me, yet always secondary to her actions overall. Her wordless tie of the L-1 wagons doesn't match her previous statements because she has stated she likes davesaz's content, so he wouldn't be the scum voting Doctor Drew, yet she townreads Naerys so Naerys wouldn't be the scum voting Doctor Drew either.

She doesn't believe Naerys is scum voting Doctor Drew, nor davesaz is scum voting Doctor Drew.

[Ranger]

black is saying, in the scenario, there's 2 scum on drew

Yes, that's my point.

Black said in that scenario, there's two scum on Doctor Drew.

Yet Black's actions don't match the worldview from there.

Black believed {T-Bone, davesaz, Ranger} would have two scum.

Black has said she sees davesaz favorably today.
Black has said she sees Naerys as town.
Black's strongest scumread is T-Bone, who she handed deciding hammering power to.

Her statements don't match her actions.

[Ranger]

Personally I'm proud of putting together Black as scum and getting close to StD-scum. I unfortunately put it together too late and that's my bad.

[Ranger]

funnily enough Rangers mason fakeclaim almost won town the game on the spot by derailing the planned bus. We couldn't deny it without losing distancing cred and we couldn't claim it without losing the ability to endgame once the masons came out

I've a funny habit of derailing scum's plans with my fakeclaims. :P

[Ranger]

ranger's on an entirely different level. props to her

When others play checkers, some play chess.

I play Mao.