Open 902: Frienemies Blitz | Postgame

[davesaz]

It would take me more than 15 minutes to catch up.

VOTE: Save The Dragons

[davesaz]

hope the other two show up soon

Whatcha mean?

[davesaz]

davesaz thoughts on light galanski?

She seems to be trying to solve.

[davesaz]

or is that within her scum range?

I haven't seen her recently enough to know. In fact not sure if I've seen her before.

[davesaz]

light_ganaski, Naerys and Cook are the wolves.

Wrap it up folks

VOTE: ranger

I don't reallly think Light has been towny.

Do you think she's been scummy?

yes thats what i meant basically

One of these things is not like the others.

[davesaz]

or is that within her scum range?

I haven't seen her recently enough to know. In fact not sure if I've seen her before.

So a null read, yes?

more like town lean, though very preliminary

[davesaz]

It would take me more than 15 minutes to catch up.

VOTE: Save The Dragons

Is this rvs or serious

A mix of RVS+reaction to spam which I think is even more negative in a blitz game than it is in regular.

[davesaz]

Maybe I need to change my practices for blitz but I'm nearly in prod range and there's like nothing I would want to comment on in a normal game lol.

Mainly for blitz it's changing your pov to "4 days from deadline we're in trouble if wagons aren't up to 1/2 the lim number".

[davesaz]

It would take me more than 15 minutes to catch up.

VOTE: Save The Dragons

Is this rvs or serious

A mix of RVS+reaction to spam which I think is even more negative in a blitz game than it is in regular.

this is AI?

Being a negative thing doesn't necessarily mean it's an AI thing.
I do think that some scum spampost to hide among the chaff. I don't know for this game.

[davesaz]

Gob gave reasons for things

In complete fairness, I

might

have seen this before. I just have this image that this never happens, so it's worth noting.

[davesaz]

I have seen enough of Ranger to give at least a town lean.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
STD is less devoid of content than my gut initially told me.
It's harder to yell at a green (two of them even) to ease up on the spam, but please give the old guy a break.

[davesaz]

pink and light green are absolutely cursed colors, so is trying to read white on mafSilver

heh, I switched to silver yesterday because reading the yellow-orange was impossible on sepia

[davesaz]

Not sure on python, but that's nothing new for me

[davesaz]

i think its Dann-python-Black

Scum team might be ranger+light+python

Why so much interest in naming 3 people so early?

[davesaz]

Tbh I think ranger/light/python is 3 town right now

Elaborate

Elaborate on why not.

Ftr, I do town read python.....but no real read so far on the other two.

So the more info the better

Any other reads, keeping in mind shorter deadlines?
What's your threshold?

[davesaz]

So they push back in a way that's basically like... proving their accuser wrong?

Thanks for explaining how you see that type of interaction. I handle it that way as town once it bugs me enough.

[davesaz]

My number one social rule is don't read into player statements about RL or V/LA. Life outside the game is not AI.

[davesaz]

I’m wondering what Tbone thinks of Python and vice versa

You clearly did not read their hero solve.

As for what I think, I don't know. Nothing Python has said or done has really surprised me outside of Python not getting super defensive over silly stuff. That's different for sure, but not anything I have pinned down. Gut wants me to say town so we'll see.

324 and 325 is literally the best thing they've done this game though so that's exciting.

Gob, any follow-up on this?
Tone thoughts on Gob since?

[davesaz]

Looks like my tablet doesn't think tbone is a word

[davesaz]

I feel like Dannflors analysis said it wel enough. For me i have sorta ruled out a lot of others, but python consistently does moves that i feel are anti-town.

You seem to have already had a position on Python, but you're deferring to Dannflor's post instead of stating your own reasons all in one place.
That

can

come from town, but I'd still like to hear your own summary with some more specifics, if you're willing.

[davesaz]

Scum team might be ranger+light+python

wtf mindmeld with nairys

So why arent we voting python?

i am

Nice. Ive found you towny btw idk why others havent. no offense but i think sometimes you can be lhf type

why vote me instead of naerys who is top wagon?

Strange how gob seems to TR Naerys but then suggests her as an alternative to voting him instead of suggesting a SR of his.

[davesaz]

VOTE: gob

[davesaz]

I don't expect dave to be super committal early

c /early/ever/

If it isn't a mech result, I'm never committal as either alignment.

[davesaz]

I got what I wanted from the gob comments and vote.

VOTE: Python

[davesaz]

Hmm, confused. Why did gob think Naerys was a top wagon?
I don't usually pay attention to who I'm voting with. While I do see some of the things being said about Python, the current wagon isn't good company.
VOTE: T-Bone
This has a

purpose

given the 28 hours on the clock. I'd actually prefer to see a Cook wagon, but there might not be enough time to swing that.

Preferred lim set: Cook, gob, T-Bone
No way this day: light, Ranger, STD, Ausuka

[davesaz]

Thinking

Think about why you dropped out of my never today list.

[davesaz]

In this game a certain kind of joke can also be role fishing. I have noticed 2 TR and 1 SL who might have gone fishing. That's somewhat troubling.

[davesaz]

Can you elaborate on what you think spews?
Thoughts on what a town flip might mean?

[davesaz]

Ranger is playing completely different than the game I played with her. I don't really think that means she's scum for a variety of reasons but that's the thought that came to my mind skimming some posts on the last page

Is anyone super familiar with Ranger? How often is she this dug in and engaged

It has been quite a long time but this feels very much like what I remember for town Ranger.

[davesaz]

Also why is T-Bone scummy tl;dr. I feel like he has been mostly jokes but he's mostly flown under my radar so far

I felt like the spammy interlude was a diversion tactic. I haven't had time to go deep on diversion from what.

[davesaz]

If any of my "not today" list is wrong, it's Ausuka. Didn't look as town on my re-read as I thought the first time through.

[davesaz]

Drew's vote for gob felt pretty opportunistic. His iso shades gob a fair amount so it could be legit, but I'm not a big fan of the vote post itself or the posting about it after.

[davesaz]

Someone was scolding the thread about going after LHF like Cook. While I agree in the general case that flipping low impact posters gives little info if they're town, it's also well-known that a decent percentage of low impact flip scum. If there were more time I'd really want to wagon Cook to see what falls out of that, but I doubt that has enough legs.

[davesaz]

Why are there multiple people lowkey(and not so lowkey) defending gob??

Well, Dave and Dann specifically.

How did you get the impression I'm defending gob?

[davesaz]

That holds regardless of gob's alignment.

[davesaz]

You immediately attack my vote on Gob when I voted them

What's your definition of immediately?
I voted gob after you, then switched to Python, didn't like that wagon given its composition and went to T-bone I think?
Some time later I decided to check if you had a position on gob before you voted.
I suppose it's plausible you might think of all that as a short time if you weren't here for it, but if you look at timestamps it was clearly not immediate, not to mention I even voted with you before rethinking...

[davesaz]

starts to vote the blooper
realizes it's the co-mod

[davesaz]

@mods it would be cool if the OP were updated with replacements

[davesaz]

I have sleep, meeting, drive to work, more meetings before deadline.
Looking back, Black is very lacking in the things I'm used to seeing from her when she's town.
Willing to try that wagon and see what comes of it, given how long it will be before I can closely read again.
VOTE: Black

[davesaz]

Can you point to towny things that scum!Black can't do?

[davesaz]

to hammer or not to hammer

[davesaz]

In this game a certain kind of joke can also be role fishing. I have noticed 2 TR and 1 SL who might have gone fishing. That's somewhat troubling.

Wasn't unnoticed. We have an hour and 45 to switch.

[davesaz]

python very clearly claimed not mason

I presume you can quote?

[davesaz]

The only reasonable alternative to it being a real mason claim is Ranger assuming she'll be NK'd anyway and having a

really

strong town read on Python.
I suppose it's possible Scum!Ranger could do it to try to force masons to out to counter, but she'd be trading ID on the masons to a certain lim in a future day.

[davesaz]

why dave didnt hammer yet? sus

I set a timer for about 15 min before deadline.

[davesaz]

VOTE: usesPython

[davesaz]

you don't look like Psyche

[davesaz]

If this flips mason I'm looking at Dann btw

[davesaz]

I realized too late that Dann's reaction meant something. If it had sunk in right away I would have just shut it down with a hammer.
At least we got the scum flip.
Not available to re-look closely at the last pages as I'm working now.

[davesaz]

I guess you gotta go then VOTE: usesPython

VOTE: Black

Can you remember why you changed your mind here?

[davesaz]

I'm pretty sure both T-Bone and gob had been to 5 before usesPython became a real wagon.
The "who would vote for gob" might just be the people who had voted for gob to make it 5, gotta fix a bug in my program and check that again.

[davesaz]

Tinfoil hat:

If gob is town, then Python must really thought deepdown that he's telling the truth in #836 - as he could have done things differently if he thought he had the chance of pushing for a gob elimination.

Python's list of people who would go for Gob
- light/Black/Ranger/Python/Drew/Dave

Python's list of people who wouldn't vote for Gob
- gob/Naerys/Dann/HEM/STD/T-Bone/JV

Then everyone in the list of people who wouldn't vote for Gob is just town, and Python slipped.

Ye i think we should keep limming in those python spew as those who would vote gob untill bye scum

Ye i think we should keep limming in those python spew as those who would vote gob untill bye scum

What would your preferred lim order be in that list?

Not paying attention to your own TR and SR, and following a list that scum made, is a recipe for disaster.
Scumpoints for both of you.

[davesaz]

I caught signs you and usesPython were masons distancing with each other. I thought the masonry was you two and Ausuka, initially. While I later had my doubts, I thought the interaction remained distancing regardless.

That's funny, the posts that I saw and referred to seemed to be you calling the masonry Naerys, Python, and yourself.

[davesaz]

Maybe not scumpoints for JV, I might be misinterpreting the question in the 2nd post as agreement when it's meant to be something else.

[davesaz]

No, we're not going to take any list that Python posted and just blindly run down it.

[davesaz]

Post numbers are off by 1 and I can't figure out why my Python program is wrong. (yes, I'm a programmer and I use Python, it's quite the coincidence lol)

502 light_ganski vote gob 1 was Naerys 2
507 Doctor Drew vote gob 2 was Save The Dragons 0
518 davesaz vote gob 3
520 Black vote gob 4 was Naerys 1
524 Ranger vote gob 5 was Dannflor 1

[davesaz]

The output had a bug, and the "was" numbers were off by 1.

502 light_ganski vote gob 1 was Naerys 3
507 Doctor Drew vote gob 2 was Save The Dragons 1
518 davesaz vote gob 3
520 Black vote gob 4 was Naerys 2
524 Ranger vote gob 5 was Dannflor 2

pedit, yeah starting at 0, technically (pagenum-1)*25

[davesaz]

What if Python tried to swing the vote to a buddy who they knew wouldn't have enough support to lim? Or for the distancing value?
I don't think that's likely, but when doing detective type work it's important to not prematurely rule out things.

(I've probably used wrong pronouns tonight, just caught myself there. Hard habit for a 60+ to change)

[davesaz]

Who would that be in this circumstance, Black?

We've been talking about the who would/wouldn't vote for gob list.

[davesaz]

My light_ganski read dropped through the day btw. I noticed some things that didn't seem consistent or a good progression, but focus was elsewhere and with limited minutes didn't bother to post anything. This is partly a note to myself so that it's not lost in dreamland.

[davesaz]

gob's a pretty meh wagon but dying is cringe so VOTE: gob

Here's where I thought Python could be trying to wiggle out by voting gob who was still unlikely to be limmed.

[davesaz]

I think I know who Dann's partners might be but I'm not sure whether that is worth speculating out in the open.

Definitely not.

[davesaz]

I realized too late that Dann's reaction meant something.

Dann's reaction actually meant nothing. He wasn’t giving away being a mason there. He knew better. He

did

give it away

earlier

though, when he in no uncertain terms told me he was claiming mason. I didn’t

believe

him; I still saw it for what it was.

Demonstrating it is part of my receipts, when I have the free time.

Flat out saying you were lying isn't a reaction that means something? My first thought was how would he know, and second thought when I moved my timeline up a couple hours was of course that's why.

[davesaz]

In short: I believe I misidentified the scum as masons, and the masons as scum, yesterday. I believe I clearly saw them for what they are, partnered, yet got which group is masons/mafia reversed.

You included

yourself

in the masons. Are you now claiming scum?

[davesaz]

Flat out saying you were lying isn't a reaction that means something?

Not to Dannflor it wasn’t. If he thought it was, he wouldn’t have said it. He only did because he thought it would be understood I lie. In 2023 I built a rapport for chronic fakeclaiming. Dannflor knew this and assumed others would, too.

You're missing my point. It doesn't matter whether Dannflor meant for it to be a signal. What matters is that I saw it as a signal.
Which is, somewhat ironically, what you're saying about your secret communications.

[davesaz]

What kind of amateur hour is this?

Apparently the kind where you think it's ok to promote discussing mason solves.

[davesaz]

no okay if im wrong i still think this is largely a town driven wagon
but I'd scrutinize naerys pretty closely and I'd reevaluate on black probably
still think light_ganski is scummy either way

This I agree with 100%.

The reason why I had Python and Naerys as my top tier townreads yesterday was I saw their early interactions on the first pages as mason distancing. I thought Ausuka was the third Mason similarly so.

Having thought I identified the masons, when I saw Dannflor with a few others doing identically to Python and Naerys, I thought he was scum, because I already had found the masons.

Now I think I got it exactly backwards. I'll have the receipts later.

I think I know who Dann's partners might be but I'm not sure whether that is worth speculating out in the open.

What kind of amateur hour is this?

Apparently the kind where you think it's ok to promote discussing mason solves.

It might be worth going back and seeing which player I was talking to in light of a recent post by said player.

You're probably reading me wrong.
I'm stating firmly that it's never ok to discuss mason solves.
Your post

should

have said "it's not worth speculating in the open". Or just don't mention thinking you know at all.
Then there would be no reason for me or others to comment.

[davesaz]

In this game a certain kind of joke can also be role fishing. I have noticed 2 TR and 1 SL who might have gone fishing. That's somewhat troubling.

Wasn't unnoticed. We have an hour and 45 to switch.

@T-Bone -- I noted those posts, scolded people about them

(in a way that avoids talking about masons myself)

, and referred to it again. Are you reading?

[davesaz]

I had those same thoughts about Ranger. Today's posting could be to set up a 1v1, "win" that, and deepwolf.
Because of that, I don't think we can let her endgame. Scum will have two other priorities, if they have figured it out, so an early NK is unlikely.

[davesaz]

Good job, you managed to get the deaders wrong

[davesaz]

Does your definition of viable change when there is less than 24 hours left on deadline? It does for me.

[davesaz]

Suppose you have 5 people who have a 10% chance of being scum, two people with 30%, and two people with 60%. If you're right on the two people who are 60% there is no chance the 30%ers can be scum. But if you are wrong on a 60%, the 30% jumps way up. It's mathematically sound thinking.

[davesaz]

I think I have an hour to deep dive while dinner is being cooked (1.5 hours from now after travel and shopping), and a couple more hours after dinner.
Tomorrow depends on how early I get up. It's my one sleep-in day of the week.

A little surface level on what I can remember from the last few days.

I had light on a downward trajectory over the last 24-48 hours of D1 and would be willing to vote that slot. (Enchant right?)
If there is something to the reason JV is a wagon, those few hours might be well spent trying to figure if it's real. Someone summarize please.
Naerys wanting to go after me is moderately suspicious, but it might be something she'd do as town. I don't agree with the conclusions from Ranger's retrospective about Python+Naerys+?, and Naerys has responded to that type of suspicion as town the same way she's responding here.
T-Bone looked bad for a bit but I think it was mainly due to misunderstandings, and looked better after that.
I really should look at what gob's alignment was in previous games. The difference I noted D1 is still there and I don't know if that's a +town or +scum difference.

[davesaz]

Why did you hammer yesterday when I said I was going to dig into wagons?

[davesaz]

I think I have an hour to deep dive while dinner is being cooked (1.5 hours from now after travel and shopping), and a couple more hours after dinner.

[davesaz]

Prodding:
davesaz, Black, StD, Naerys

coincidentally this was one minute after my wakeup alarm today

[davesaz]

T-Bone looks town in that interaction.

[davesaz]

i'm not voting outside of {Ranger, TBone} today and probably ever

im still here

Please explain the reasons why. Preferably with quotes.

[davesaz]

Doesn't that assume that there was no bussing?

[davesaz]

im not arguing "the scum team is exactly ranger and tbone"

im arguing "i think there's at least 1 scum in {ranger, tbone} here is why individually i think they are scum"

You said a fair amount about T-Bone's early-ish play. Any thoughts on how he approached the last few pages with JV?

[davesaz]

Naerys taking potshots at me has felt weird, and she would be in my POE.

[davesaz]

It would be interesting to look at Naerys' completed scumgame, though whether I'll have time is a question.

[davesaz]

I think STD was referring to Ranger there.

[davesaz]

I have thought some of Ranger's plays have been anti-town, but I think her owning those plays is pretty towny.
I think I've commented on this before, it wouldn't be wise to let her endgame if it gets to that, as I think she's quite proficient enough to deepwolf that stuff.

[davesaz]

Didn't I just say I find it likely you are both scum?

Yes, and I don't believe you

or

I feel like the reasoning towards you voting Naerys here over myself is clouded through the read on me. I don't believe you can realistically make the argument you did without assuming that it's because of some form of interaction with me, which you said multiple times yet keep ignoring. Referring to these quotes in particular

Spoiler: Quote List

Especially when Jackson was at E-1, you take your vote off of him because Bone votes you?

Feels like she felt safe by self voting to save you.

I mean, I don't think she was expecting more votes on her

Counterpoint, scum didn't want to buss and realized you were at E-1 after the VC

I also just said I feel like Nae would be the more likely scum as I went through typing my last post.

There doesn't seem to be a town motivation that I can think of for her to jump off you in the way she did.

And where's the scum motivation? Just trying out an AtE instead of sticking to the push on me?

It can't be neither. I would think "not town motivated implies scum" is a lot more likely than "not scum motivated implies town". This is a very illogical point to try to make.

[davesaz]

Like, why would Nae self vote there?

If you are town and being genuinely frustrated that you are being scum read, then really push for someone to hammer Jackson......ya know, the person you are voting for?

I agree it feels a little performative and not really in the townie way but I've seen town self vote out of frustration before. I think you are expecting Naerys to make the optimal play in a moment of weakness but I'm not sure that's fair

In the context of only having one vote at the time, and moving off the highest wagon, it makes a lot less sense.

[davesaz]

VC 1.19

Votecount 1.19

usesPython (6):

gob, Naerys, Dannflor, humaneatingmonkey, Black, Save The Dragons

[E-1]

Black (4):

JacksonVirgo, usesPython, davesaz, Ranger

gob (1):

light_ganski

Dannflor (1):

Doctor Drew

davesaz (1):

T-Bone

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-01-29 17:40:53).

Mod notes:

• Combined mod ISO

to hammer or not to hammer

Please hammer

Ranger is lying

In this game a certain kind of joke can also be role fishing. I have noticed 2 TR and 1 SL who might have gone fishing. That's somewhat troubling.

Wasn't unnoticed. We have an hour and 45 to switch.

@Naerys -- if you actually read the whole interaction about the timing of my Python vote, you'd see I'm absolutely town.

[davesaz]

python very clearly claimed not mason

I presume you can quote?

The only reasonable alternative to it being a real mason claim is Ranger assuming she'll be NK'd anyway and having a

really

strong town read on Python.
I suppose it's possible Scum!Ranger could do it to try to force masons to out to counter, but she'd be trading ID on the masons to a certain lim in a future day.

why dave didnt hammer yet? sus

I set a timer for about 15 min before deadline.

Some of the quotes didn't take...

[davesaz]

Even thinking about pushing me is bullshit, you're grasping at straws looking for any potential mislim opportunity.

[davesaz]

Ranger's read lists and posts implied all day that she was mason with Python and Naerys. Any townie who is actually paying attention might think those were real posts, or at least not be sure if they're joke or real.
So here is a wagon on a supposed mason, but one of the other supposed masons is on it. Something is fishy.
We're very near deadline, a lim is essential, there isn't another wagon available in either case.
So I wasn't sure whether to trust my TRs on the wagon or trust my instincts that the actual masons were joke claiming.

[davesaz]

Caveat, this is from the "alive" list where I found one player hadn't been updated, so possible I've overlooked someone else who shouldn't be here...

T-Bone - medium town. did some things that seemed sketchy but was attempted as a CW to Python so by VCA unlikely to be scum
Doctor Drew - dunno, never have a grasp on Drew in any game
davesaz - town
humaneatingmonkey - claimed mason
Naerys - 2 pages ago I would have said scum. actually engaging me has me rethinking.
Black - probably town, but not a confident read
Ranger obvtown or deep wolf. Can't be allowed to endgame
Save The Dragons - weak town? but I see some things that are fairly questionable
JacksonVirgo - probably scum, would hammer later in the day

[davesaz]

I mean I agree he could be scum I just thought the hammer was a weird thing to pick at when I think anyone of any alignment would have done it.

that hammer was the point of me starting to truly suspect dave, cant even explain why, i just started to feel something was off

NGL, I knew it would look sketchy, especially when I immediately started talking switching wagons after Ranger said Python was a mason.
I can't prove I had a lightbulb on Dann after his reply to my what if post. Would scum admit to the aha moment of knowing who one of the masons was, right after said mason was the nk?

[davesaz]

IIRC, Black was also an attempted CW to Python.

[davesaz]

If you're town you deprive town of a vote that helps for VCA.
If you're scum then you deprive town of a vote that helps for VCA.
That makes self voting scumsided either way.
I see people use it for the supposed ATE value all the time, and I don't think that's very helpful either.

[davesaz]

I wonder if you're basing your thoughts on me on the difference between December and now. In December I was on vacation from work basically the entire. Since 2nd week in Jan I have been back to my usual 60 hours a week. You get about 30-60 minutes a day on average from me now, in maybe 5-10 minute chunks.

[davesaz]

Can't be sure I'll be back before deadline.
VOTE: JacksonVirgo

[davesaz]

The funny thing about 2294 is that Naerys lists Drew in the scum list and Drew just agrees.

[davesaz]

Let's look at this sequence which includes large wagons on T-Bone and gob, during a time when usesPython was also a wagon.

224 Save The Dragons vote T-Bone 1 was

humaneatingmonkey

1
300

JacksonVirgo

vote T-Bone 2 was Naerys 2
332 Black vote Naerys 2 was

gob

1
334

Enchant

vote Naerys 3 was

usesPython

3
341 davesaz unvote was Save The Dragons 2
362 Naerys vote

usesPython

3 was

Dannflor

3
397

usesPython

vote

Dannflor

3 was Naerys 3
399

Dannflor

vote

usesPython

3 was

usesPython

4

program artifact where it doesn't realize it's the same vote

Python at 3

437

Dannflor

vote Naerys 3 was

usesPython

3
440

humaneatingmonkey

unvote was

Dannflor

3
459 T-Bone vote

JacksonVirgo

1
501

Enchant

vote

gob

1 was Naerys 3
506 Doctor Drew vote

gob

2 was Save The Dragons 1
517 davesaz vote

gob

3
519 Black vote

gob

4 was Naerys 2
523 Ranger vote

gob

5 was

Dannflor

2

gob reaches 5

528

Dannflor

vote davesaz 1 was Naerys 1
548

humaneatingmonkey

vote

usesPython

3
557 davesaz vote

usesPython

4 was

gob

5

Python at 4

559

usesPython

vote

gob

5 was

Dannflor

1
562 davesaz vote T-Bone 3 was

usesPython

4
563

usesPython

vote T-Bone 4 was

gob

5
570

Dannflor

vote T-Bone 5 was davesaz 1

T-Bone at 5

gob and T-bone both reached 5 during a time that Python had 3 and 4 votes respectively.
The end of the T-bone sequence is especially telling, Python follows me and in doing so moves off of the biggest wagon which was gob.
I think this means T-Bone is probably town.

[davesaz]

780

JacksonVirgo

vote Dannflor 1 was Black 1
781

usesPython

vote

Dannflor

2 was T-Bone 3
786 Doctor Drew vote

Dannflor

3 was

gob

4

Drew putting Dann at 3

793

humaneatingmonkey

vote

JacksonVirgo

1 was

usesPython

3
805

JacksonVirgo

vote

JacksonVirgo

2 was

Dannflor

3
813

Dannflor

vote

usesPython

3 was Doctor Drew 1
816

humaneatingmonkey

vote

usesPython

4 was

JacksonVirgo

2

Python at 4

838

JacksonVirgo

vote Black 1 was

JacksonVirgo

1
845

usesPython

vote Black 2 was

Dannflor

2
863 davesaz vote Black 3 was T-Bone 2
867 Black vote

usesPython

5 was

gob

3

Black puts Python at 5

882 Ranger vote Black 4 was

gob

2
924 Save The Dragons vote Black 5 was T-Bone 1

Notice it's Ranger and STD who make Black the top CW.

951 Save The Dragons unvote was Black 5

Look at whether there was any reason given on STD's vote and unvote

1036 Save The Dragons vote

usesPython

6
1042

JacksonVirgo

vote

Enchant

1 was Black 4
1052

Enchant

vote

Dannflor

2 was

gob

1
1140 davesaz vote

usesPython

7 was Black 3

This one is a bit more convoluted. If Black is town, then one of Ranger and STD is likely scum, which follows from Black's scumreads.
It's also possible that the Black and Python votes were distancing, and they are both fairly early on each other's wagons.

[davesaz]

To me it seems like a lot of your read is based around her pushing you

Why are you only questioning her vote on Ranger?

Gut says Drew but I don't have a good reason right now. I'm gonna spend some time tomorrow reading.

That's a lazy read by you, do better

What are these questions and comments accomplishing?

[davesaz]

What is your post accomplishing?

I'm trying to figure out if you're trying to solve, or merely talking aimlessly.

[davesaz]

Why is Black only questioning Nea's vote on Ranger, is the other point.

Compared to what? Other votes on Ranger, or Naerys other reads, or other people in general? Or something else?

[davesaz]

ranger can talk about my position on python whatever she wants, but hers on black is just as bad
Black being another scum wagon is very unlikely due python

I'm aware the Black wagon was scumdriven.

I believe the scum on the wagon was elsewhere.

Is this the D1 Black wagon you're talking about?

838

JacksonVirgo

vote Black 1 was

JacksonVirgo

1
845

usesPython

vote Black 2 was

Dannflor

2
863 davesaz vote Black 3 was T-Bone 2
867 Black vote

usesPython

5 was

gob

3

Black puts Python at 5

882 Ranger vote Black 4 was

gob

2
924 Save The Dragons vote Black 5 was T-Bone 1

Notice it's Ranger and STD who make Black the top CW.

You're saying there is scum in {me, you, STD}?
Or was Python the only scum on the Black wagon?

[davesaz]

VC 1.17

Votecount 1.17

usesPython (5):

gob

, Naerys,

Dannflor

,

humaneatingmonkey

,

Black

Black (4):

JacksonVirgo

,

usesPython

, davesaz, Ranger

gob (1):

light_ganski

T-Bone (1):

Save The Dragons

Dannflor (1):

Doctor Drew

davesaz (1):

T-Bone

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-01-29 17:40:53).

Mod notes:

• Combined mod ISO

I don't really think Ranger and dave are both scum. Would all 3 scum pile on me in order like this?

I feel like T-Bone and one of Ranger/dave is probably just the solve here. Drew is the X-Factor

Thoughts on STD putting you to 5? Looking only at mod's VC you miss what happens between them...

[davesaz]

This is a poll for the audience.

Without looking, what can you recall about Drew's game? Do you remember any reads he pushed or significant votes he made?

Just give me your honest recollection before doing anything else.

I'll have to answer in hindsight -- before my questions to him last night I did not.

[davesaz]

Ranger might be scum. I'm willing, closer to deadline.

What if Ranger is town? Will we be able to catch all the scum with no mistakes?

[davesaz]

I think the vote motion analysis says that T-Bone is much more likely town than scum.
Do the two of you each have someone else you'd like to suggest?

[davesaz]

That question was for Ranger and T-Bone but intervening posts moved it out of context.
Happy to have anyone else answer too.

[davesaz]

Do the two of you each have someone else you'd like to suggest?

Drew. For me its either Ranger or Drew today

I see a post where you list Ranger and Drew but don't see much on the why especially for Drew.

[davesaz]

You know how the site upgrade pings people who quote your posts

I don't know this. Must have happened while I was away. I wouldn't want to use it btw, it's all I can do to keep up with pings elsewhere.

[davesaz]

Looking only at mod's VC you miss what happens between them...

Try extending this to the votes themselves. Looking at the votes, you miss the context behind the Black wagon, which was usesPython deliberately pinged us all. You know how the site upgrade pings people who quote your posts, usesPython exploited it to quote us all, blanked the post they were quoting, just to make an effective

@User

ping, to summon us to the post in question and get support.

No VCA in existence, no program in existence, will ever factor that in, yet it's the crux of the wagon.

I think you should have said this when you originally said that wagon was scum driven btw.
Now all the extra words will make those who scumread you dig in even more.

[davesaz]

i am willing to move to Tbone if necessary

Being willing on someone the votes scream must be town isn't especially helpful. I'm nowhere near 100% on that read, but I'd say it's at least 75%.
Do you have specific reasons for TRing everyone else?

[davesaz]

VC 4.02

Votecount 4.02

Ranger (3):

Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys

[E-1]

T-Bone (1):

Black

Doctor Drew (1):

Ranger

Not Voting (2):

T-Bone, davesaz

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-02-12 20:47:19).

Mod notes:

• Combined mod ISO

I think Naerys and T-Bone are town with me. That leaves 2 scum in Drew, STD, Ranger, Black. I think Black is the least likely of these 4 based on that wagon that Python pushed.

STD and Ranger together would be major theater but possible. The play could be that STD's tunnel comes across as a hero move on a Ranger scumflip, and then play on Naerys being suspicious of me coupled with my waffling stance on Ranger. Not sure where STD would go for a 2nd mislim after that. I don't feel like this is a likely scum strategy being ahead like this. It could be that it's straight up distancing and they never expected it to catch on, and STD's really in a corner where backing off isn't possible.

Drew and Ranger seems much less likely as a pairing. STD as town could be pushing scum ranger, and Drew might figure if he's gonna bus it should be early. I don't see why this pairing would think that bussing is necessary. Drew is set up to be able to claim he has a scumread on almost anyone, and despite the wagon hitting 3 so quickly I would guess that's actually unexpected from a team containing Ranger.

Ranger and Black as a pair would mean it's an all town wagon and they're trying for a Black endgame. It's too late to bus, probably wouldn't get any credit. The analysis of the Black wagon d1 would mean that Python tried to get credit for a Black lim by @ing their other partner and a bunch of town and it didn't go through.

If Ranger is town and STD is just tunneled town, a Drew and Black pairing looks pretty good here. Drew jumped on the possible mislim hoping that the others who were already suspicious of Ranger would go along with a blitz lim. Black stayed off to give a classic on and off split, and looks town given Ranger is pushing hard to clear her and I'm going along with that.

STD and Drew would be 1-2 on a mislim but STD would have a get out of jail free card from the tunnel. This would be a play to have STD endgame.

I haven't covered all the combos yet but this is getting long so better cut it off and see what responses it generates.

[davesaz]

Actually having gotten to the end of that, not so sure of the Python-led wagon on Black meaning she's town. Black+Drew looks like the highest probability pairing for the current game state by a mile.

[davesaz]

Unless it's just Ranger and whomever. That's a compliment, that being able to logic your way through all of this seems like it's possible. I'd never be able to write that much convincingly.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Doctor Drew

[davesaz]

Explain how being concerned about the speed of someone else's wagon is scum motivated.

[davesaz]

Explain how being concerned about the speed of someone else's wagon is scum motivated.

no takers on this?

[davesaz]

are you trying to say ranger is not scum because she questioned drew's wagon

Not exactly

[davesaz]

VOTE: Doctor Drew

[davesaz]

I knew Drew was either scum or throwing by voting that fast. That's why you don't vote right off in mislim & lose situations.
Definitely would have swung to Black yesterday if there had been enough time.
STD felt off the entire game but I allowed myself to be dissuaded from pursuing it, largely because I don't think I've ever seen good STD.

[davesaz]

I had Black pegged as the most likely d1 wagon to be cross-bussing, so that's at least something.

[davesaz]

Repeat after me, if you're town in a mason game,

do not talk about masons

.
Thanks!

[davesaz]

STD felt off the entire game but I allowed myself to be dissuaded from pursuing it, largely because I don't think I've ever seen good STD.

I've thought a lot about what you said here, probably too much, tbh. I'm not well and it's not your fault I've been dwelling on this for the past few hours and not on the fact I just won a game.

My desired response has changed from anger to hurt to indignation to a vengeful insult to honesty to honest advice.

I think I will leave it at this though.

Sorry, that wasn't meant to be hurtful. I can see how it would be interpreted that way.
My reaction to things I perceive as spam is typical old person, and it's wrong of me to project that onto the rest of anyone's posting.