Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[Gamma Emerald]

Heyyy
VOTE: shaddowez

[Gamma Emerald]

[visible confusion]

[Gamma Emerald]

What if the apple belongs to the crab?

[Gamma Emerald]

I thought I had a foolproof strategy of differant themes and only being logged in as crab on my laptop and only being logged in as element's on my phone

KEKW

[Gamma Emerald]

Dread it, run from it, the altslip arrives eventually
I have only ever had one alt that I didn’t full-on slip with, and I revealed it after my second game on it

[Gamma Emerald]

I didn't really familiarize myself with the setup beyond win-rate and the basics of it. PR's getting voted off early though is a fairly common occurrence in my experience since people playing PR's tend to get angrier faster especially when they feel their getting voted by townies, which can lead to self-voting or simply being taken as being overly defensive.

I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die) would be useful here, and I think it might be unless the clock specifically landed on 5. Would require everyone to be on board with it, though.

VOTE: Puffalicious Back to E-2, 30 gave me some vibes.

I thought I had a foolproof strategy of differant themes and only being logged in as crab on my laptop and only being logged in as element's on my phone

The trick is to bookmark the threads you're in only on one account and only access that thread through bookmarks. That's how I do it.

Eh I think hypo might be viable if claiming target but not role/result

[Gamma Emerald]

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

Aren’t there 2 mafia role cops?

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

This strat isn’t great because based on the one player that is on 1/5/7/11 mafia can solve the setup

[Gamma Emerald]

Mmmkay

[Gamma Emerald]

What do you make of gob TRing the votes on you?

[Gamma Emerald]

One half of me is Adorable.... the other half is Ugly.

Don’t say this

Also, my vote was RVS but ftr I don’t think shadowwez has done much AI

[Gamma Emerald]

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

Why is kyouko scum individually?

[Gamma Emerald]

Mine

[Gamma Emerald]

Cobblerfone, could you elaborate on what you mean when you say you doubt Puff is mafia due to statistical reasons?

there's a 7/9 chance that the first big wagon of the day is town. I'm town and was the third vote. If Kyouko is town, she'd have a 2/9 chance of voting mafia on day one. If she were puff's partner, she could "randomly" vote informedly to distance, but considering their interactions so far I doubt they are mafia together unless Kyouko has a history of bussing

There’s a 7/9 chance of anyone being town? That statistic argument would just paralyze any action if taken to a logical extreme.

[Gamma Emerald]

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

Is this post trying to imply you have a scumread on Kyouko? Why?

No, between Kyouko and Puff, Puff is more suspicious. I have a mostly town read on Kyouko. If Kyouko had backed off of Puff I would have been strongly suspicious of them both, but see my previous post. (sorry for the confusing order, I guess I should click the older notifications first?)

Your vote on my slot is the only vote I can understand and I agree if gob and me were playing together not as a hydra I would also suspect him for ignoring. Can you elaborate your town read on Kyouko? It looked like they misrepped my slot and normally I don't like it and I'm figuring out if it's a town misrep or a scum misrep.

- A

Is there a scenario where you would like being misrepresented?

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma if you were a dayvig who would you shoot here and why?

I wouldn’t fire yet because on D1 I tend to shoot players who seem to be trying to stir the pot, and I haven’t seen much of that. That probably wasn’t the answer you wanted but as someone who has rolled dayvig and git scum with it, I have a peculiar perspective.

[Gamma Emerald]

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

Why is kyouko scum individually?

That's part of the reason I unvoted Puff. I have a townread on Kyouko and if she's town she and I are both more likely to have randomly voted for town than for mafia. 2/9 * 2/9 = 4/81 chance of mafia

Why are you misrepresenting my reads?

These odds aren’t really sensical. The odds of a town player voting mafia should be stated as 2/8 since if trying to hit mafia, they would never vote themselves.
Also, I think this argument just assumes too much. You could apply a statistical argument to any slot to call it town.
This results in me thinking there has to be something more to your thinking which is where the kyouko SR idea came in. It didn’t help you suggested bussing out of nowhere.

[Gamma Emerald]

Well when you say you “normally” dislike something it implies there’s exceptions where you would.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma if you were a dayvig who would you shoot here and why?

I wouldn’t fire yet because on D1 I tend to shoot players who seem to be trying to stir the pot, and I haven’t seen much of that. That probably wasn’t the answer you wanted but as someone who has rolled dayvig and git scum with it, I have a peculiar perspective.

Was this meant to go somewhere?

[Gamma Emerald]

I think the issue there is I have a bit functional fixedness wrt dayvigs: I know what I do best with them so I’m less open to alternative options. A different question will likely open more doors in my mind.

[Gamma Emerald]

"Why are

so many people waiting

to see the response to post 30?
"Based on

Thomith's comment

about their vote"

These two statements do not align. This is also, again, incredibly reductive of Thomith's posting so far.

I have made many of these bad generalizations as town in the past fyi
It tends to be indicative of sone voices just nit being as present as they probably should be because the few louder ones are tuning those others out

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm admittedly sus of Gamma atm because she's active in another game but not here but that last post from Cobb hits all kinds of alarm bells. I'm keeping my vote on Cobb.

btw please don’t do this as I have executive dysfunction + anxiety issues regarding balancing of priorities and this compounds those problems

[Gamma Emerald]

Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale

[Gamma Emerald]

Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale

I feel like faking newness could more be attempting to hide being an alt rather than indicating any kind of alignment in this case?

Still worth a poke imo

[Gamma Emerald]

I had a tell on her that worked pretty well for a while, but after I got it wrong in Radio Buzz I told her what it was and I think she is now more aware of it. If I remember right, she was one to overuse phrases like "honestly" or "genuinely" as scum and I could just tell the difference between when she did it as scum versus town.

Now there is no "secret" like there was for a while, now it's more that I have a lot of experience with her and I feel that if she does something out of order I would notice.

In my experience Gamma can get heated/emotional in a way that can easily be mistaken as scum AtE but it is NAI.

I've also been off site for a year or two so my experience may be outdated but like I said I feel prepared for scum!Gamma

It was actually a normal game where the tell failed. Or at least that’s where you revealed it. And wrt getting heated, I am trying to dial some of that back in general, but if I get annoyed I sometimes backslide into bad habits.

[Gamma Emerald]

Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.

someone said something similar, but I joined as an alt because I wanted to try a different play style to usual and didn't want people to try meta read my playstyle shift

Okay
UNVOTE:

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this game

Okay. What similarities did you see?

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

Agreed.

VOTE: Elements

Since Gamma is on this.

This feels spicy btw

[Gamma Emerald]

okay

[Gamma Emerald]

Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.

I read it as nai the way how elements did it. It would look towny if she provided evidence of the posts from the completed game while also reading the completed game for the first time.

- A

what do you make of me unvoting Elements?

[Gamma Emerald]

but like, your whole vote on Elements was predicated on me voting them, so me unvoting should have staying power?

[Gamma Emerald]

okay get him in here then

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma gives the impression of just hanging back until I called her out. First parcel of content is in ISO 5 in which she gives the opinion that hypoclaiming targets but not results will be better. Next non-setup post of substance is ISO 9 where she asks Adorable what she thinks of Gobs reads. And that's it until I vote for her low content posts. Then she becomes more active. IDK, maybe she's mobile posting, but overall her early posts gives the impression of someone who wants to appear to be posting but to also fade into the background without strong opinions.

this take falls apart imo with how I've interacted with Mizuki, I opened myself towards providing opinions there

[Gamma Emerald]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I dunno if I agree, I think kyouko has responded poorly to pressure in the past, but that could have changed

[Gamma Emerald]

I think 206 and 208 give off a sort of authoritative tone that I'm not sure Town takes there. When I look at Elements vote on Gamma, I can think of a dozen different reasons that I, personally, could've made that post if I were scum there, from testing the waters on a potential Gamma wagon to simply formulating a fake, lazy meta read for towncred with no actual intent of having it go anywhere.

Kyouko asserts, however, that there's only a handful of possible universes in which a Maf!Elements makes that vote and read.

Basically, it's sort of what I accused Cobb of being, that of just trying to sound analytical, because if you really dig into the point Kyouko's making here there's so many different possible factors for why that vote could've happened, that boiling it down to just a 2-4 possible scenarios borders on kind of absurd unless Kyouko is intrinsically familiar with the working of Elements's mind, something I doubt.

Does that explanation make sense? It sounds okay to me in my head but typing it out was surprisingly an ordeal so I'm not sure I'm expressing it properly.

I think your take makes some sense, I don’t think the way you expressed it sticks with me but I see what the angle could be if Kyouko is scum

[Gamma Emerald]

Now, on the other hand, I do think that 205 is probably a town post from Elements, since I think the kind of scrutiny that Elements shows there is very much a townie reaction.

I think this is a good point btw
205 feels like there’s a laser-focus of thought process that is town-indicative

[Gamma Emerald]

Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.

Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.

What do you think @kyouko

What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?

Over explainy first post. "Sleep now." "Post tomorrow"

Scum feels the need to over explain, especially in a scenario where they legit gotta go. Town would just be like "sup" and leave.

I feel like I got a similar vibe from shaddowez’s first post

[Gamma Emerald]

Plurality is not enabled in this game

[Gamma Emerald]

Readslist:

Yay!

Thomith
Elements
Mizuki
Kyouko
Gamma
Puff
Shadow
Cobb

Nay!

On your wallpost you have talked about Cobbs and me and when I looked at your reads list here I see you put Shadow below me. What is it about Shadow you did not like and why did you not have anything to say about him?

- A

Wanting to wait to hear Gamma's response to my question about her Shadow comment first.

I must have missed it, one second

[Gamma Emerald]

Found it, the former

[Gamma Emerald]

*sips*

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: imaginality

- A

Do you agree with what Thom said?

[Gamma Emerald]

^ total lies i never quickhammered

“Press X to Doubt”
XXXXXXXXXXX

[Gamma Emerald]

You will be nightkilled.

Bet?

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Enchant
I think I want this because I don’t particularly care for what feels like a threat and this is the shaddowez slot which means it’s two players who’ve failed to make a good impression

[Gamma Emerald]

Interesting angle.

[Gamma Emerald]

I see, I see!

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t have a guilty

[Gamma Emerald]

I do not have a hard guilty

NKA: Enchant is an odd kill here. His only votes were on Kyouko and the hammer on Cobb, and his only real interaction of the day was with Gamma, who I'm not sure he was even scumreading. Two possibilities immediately present themselves to me, one being that he was simply killed for being a low-info, low associative kill. The other is that Enchant quickhammering after Cobb claimed Follower might've made the last scum think he was a PR. The former scenario is what worries me, since it implies a deep-wolf I think.

I think imaginaility has to be town here, I don't think scum replaces in to immediately start swinging at their partner, especially since it was his vote that really restarted the Cobb wagon and imaginality never really offered an alternative wagon other than Puff. That kind of bussing on D1, especially when we had like 3 days left in the deadline at that point, in a 2-scum setup? Doesn't seem likely to me.

Two main suspects for today are Puff and Gamma. I don't think it's a stretch to say that the Cobb wagon was all town and the Enchant push at the end of the day from Gamma smells bad to me, and Puff has looked null to scummy all game so far.

I think I'll start here for today:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I have played with Enchant a fair amount, do you think I would have been unaware of his playstyle, or that I just opted to disadvantage myself?

[Gamma Emerald]

Hypoclaim: Elements went nowhere last night

I do not have a hard guilty

NKA: Enchant is an odd kill here. His only votes were on Kyouko and the hammer on Cobb, and his only real interaction of the day was with Gamma, who I'm not sure he was even scumreading. Two possibilities immediately present themselves to me, one being that he was simply killed for being a low-info, low associative kill. The other is that Enchant quickhammering after Cobb claimed Follower might've made the last scum think he was a PR. The former scenario is what worries me, since it implies a deep-wolf I think.

I think imaginaility has to be town here, I don't think scum replaces in to immediately start swinging at their partner, especially since it was his vote that really restarted the Cobb wagon and imaginality never really offered an alternative wagon other than Puff. That kind of bussing on D1, especially when we had like 3 days left in the deadline at that point, in a 2-scum setup? Doesn't seem likely to me.

Two main suspects for today are Puff and Gamma. I don't think it's a stretch to say that the Cobb wagon was all town and the Enchant push at the end of the day from Gamma smells bad to me, and Puff has looked null to scummy all game so far.

I think I'll start here for today:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I have played with Enchant a fair amount, do you think I would have been unaware of his playstyle, or that I just opted to disadvantage myself?

Not sure what you're trying to say here, are you saying you don't make the Enchant kill here because his playstyle would benefit you as scum?

I'm saying me pushing Enchant yesterday is the part that doesn't make sense

[Gamma Emerald]

With how much I've played with Enchant, do you not think I'd realize pushing Enchant would drive him towards voting Cobb? Given that, why would I push there when my alleged scumbuddy was on the hook?

[Gamma Emerald]

I have no frame of reference for how many games you've played with Enchant. I've been off-site for a little while.

Did you push Enchant specifically so he would hammer Cobb? If so, why didn't you just hammer Cobb yourself?

I thought Enchant was scummy. I also wasn't townreading Cobb so I didn't mind the outcome.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also this Gamma posting is scumpinging me, I'm pretty sure she has done this before - made a kill that "doesnt make sense for her to have made" and argued against it. I'll have to confirm that too. I won't have time for either metadive until tomorrow

[Gamma Emerald]

I am a roleblocker that targeted kyouko btw

[Gamma Emerald]

If I remember correctly on Gamma I'm thinking of Owner's Market Blitz, maybe Mountain Dew Mafia, maybe Isekai uPick. She might not have been scum in mountain dew mafia. There's a plethora of unnamed Normals in my "My Games" text file wherein Gamma may have been scum, but I wouldn't recall those ones just from reading the game number and I don't track all the other players and their alignments/roles in my file - only my own. I'll take a peek at those ones. I should probably check Radio Buzz as well as I misread her in that game and

faked a guilty

I was town in Mountain Dew

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: imaginality
I was already kinda leaning this way fwiw

[Gamma Emerald]

I’m vanilla town

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t see how a strongman specifically holding their shot means anything

[Gamma Emerald]

I’ll be blunt, this setup is really hard for me to process, mostly because the only list of possible setups is put onto a circle which makes it hard to distill into a real list

[Gamma Emerald]

I also don’t get why the focus is Thomith here

[Gamma Emerald]

Wow mafia surrendered and town still beat them to death.

So much for being good faction.

lol
Thanks for the game everyone

[Gamma Emerald]

We can hydra!