Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Ausuka]

I am not meuh

VOTE: towwl

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Cook

sheeping bingle

[Ausuka]

Wow you're kinda playing with fire here

[Ausuka]

I know my posts are good but reading them four times seems a bit excessive

[Ausuka]

VOTE: towel

I am a big believer in omgus theory

[Ausuka]

VOTE: towel

I am a big believer in omgus theory

How serious are you here?

I think the whole "i read it four times" thing is pretty performative, and also like 'the joke is actually posturing to seem reasonable' thing seems p stretchy

[Ausuka]

she responds to somebody sheeping her as "playing with fire" when the title of this game characterizes the mafia as fire.

[Ausuka]

Hmm ok

VOTE: skygazer

[Ausuka]

Sky gazer is town, btw.

counterpoint;

[Ausuka]

I think "signalling to other scum" is a really fundamentally extremely obviously idiotic idea and I am curious about why Bingle does not.seem to think that

[Ausuka]

Towwl is there a particular reason you jumped to thinking that playing with fire was a scumslip instead of using the idiom in the traditional sense of “engaging in a dangerous activity” like, I dunno, an RVS E-1?

I probably should've used a /s on that line. What initially pinged me about 60 and led me to post 64 is what I see as fake caution. After Merlyn asked me about it I noticed the wordplay (but thought it was coincidental) so I poked fun at it by calling it a scumslip.

weirdest post in the thread so far. to recap: you made up some shit that was obviously wrong, got called out on it, and backpedaled off of “it was a joke?”

it’s amateur hour

Original post made it pretty clear to me it was a joke? Not towwl's fault you can't read

I like this meuh post

[Ausuka]

I think "signalling to other scum" is a really fundamentally extremely obviously idiotic idea and I am curious about why Bingle does not.seem to think that

Because I've literally pulled it off before.

In this setup? The one that's never been run before and in which you have no information about the other mafia group, and there are 2 mafia who are the recipient target of your signalling, 12 townies who also have eyes, and no particular way to differentiate between the two? And all because I made a joke about the setup title?

[Ausuka]

No, in a different setup as a mafia traitor when it was confirmed that there was a mafia traitor, and slightly more protected by a layer of it not being immediately obvious because it relied on knowledge of the identities of the scum team.

Do you think there is no desire in scum to figure out who the other scum are to NOT lim/kill them?

Of course scum would want that, but how can they go about it in a way that would a) work and b) not be seen by town? If town don't think a soft exists, why would mafia?

[Ausuka]

I think "signalling to other scum" is a really fundamentally extremely obviously idiotic idea and I am curious about why Bingle does not.seem to think that

I mean when scum not recognizing each other runs the risk of losing Night 1 to shooting each other... I think the play makes sense if you think you could pull it off.

I do not necessarily agree that that's actually what happened, but it's not really that outlandish.

Why would you think you could pull it off in any situation? Again, mafia don't have any idea who the other mafia are so they can't somehow target the soft

I guess if you think this too Bingle might have come to the same conclusion but meh

[Ausuka]

Because all they have to do is plant the seed of doubt in other mafia? Why not crumb a message to the other team if you can just pass it off as "obviously it was a joke"?

Because if town believes it was just a joke mafia would do so equally? If mafia doubts it town would do the same?

[Ausuka]

Meh am not buying this

VOTE: Bingle

[Ausuka]

I have to townread skygazer for the phanpy

[Ausuka]

I think "signalling to other scum" is a really fundamentally extremely obviously idiotic idea and I am curious about why Bingle does not.seem to think that

I mean when scum not recognizing each other runs the risk of losing Night 1 to shooting each other... I think the play makes sense if you think you could pull it off.

I do not necessarily agree that that's actually what happened, but it's not really that outlandish.

Why would you think you could pull it off in any situation? Again, mafia don't have any idea who the other mafia are so they can't somehow target the soft

I guess if you think this too Bingle might have come to the same conclusion but meh

The game's essentially a pseudo-multiball arrangement, only the scumteams don't want to kill each other.

While identities aren't known, you have an advantage in scumhunting and can potentially make subtle probes about it.

There's the risk of getting caught, yes, but the risk of getting shot is worse in this setup, so depending on scum's confidence level it's something I do expect to happen.

I mean maybe this could be the case later although I'm personally very skeptical such a subtle way exists and especially that it could work only on scum

I think if you're scum and you don't want to get shot the obvious solution is to slightly scum it up if you're getting too townread and I think maybe it's worth looking out for people doing that if we're going down this route

Personally I think if Bingle was town and came up with this genuinely it is less likely he would be trying to set up rhetorical traps like he was trying to win a debate on Twitter - like I don't really get the feeling from his posting that he doesn't know my alignment here

[Ausuka]

Is it really that crazy to think it is obviously unwise to try and target two specific people you don't have any knowledge of in a pool of fifteen and expect it to work

I mean really

[Ausuka]

Ooh enter the game on a page top.

Ausuka, unless Bingle is scum specifically with you, they don't know your alignment.

Can you explain how this is a scum read?

Hm i mean true but like, I don't really feel like he cares and I also think probably for scum they will treat people as town for them to push unless they have reason to think otherwise. At least that's intuitive to me

"I would like to thank you for illustrating to the rest of the players why it potentially being signalling is scummy." is again something I feel like comes more from a place of trying to like win a debate or whatever vs sorting

[Ausuka]

if anyone wants to guess how many shots of vodka i've had i'll give you my vote

4 and a half

[Ausuka]

if anyone wants to guess how many shots of vodka i've had i'll give you my vote

4 and a half

who tf takes HALF a shot of vodka?

idk I don't drink alcohol

[Ausuka]

owned

gtfo osuka

[Ausuka]

Oh lord is the rest of the game going to be signal theories

[Ausuka]

How would black even know to signal to invisibility!!! Why would invisibility take her voting the same person as a signal!!!! This makes no sense!!!!

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Ausuka

Looked through her iso and there is literally nothing to townread, go look at it yourself.

Is voting someone because you don't townread them on like page 10 something you often do

[Ausuka]

I believe in townbringer

Black's votes are scummy but then scum are probably less likely than town to do something scummy like that so I am going to townread black instead

[Ausuka]

Sorry but glaceon is better

[Ausuka]

k

[Ausuka]

I believe in townbringer

Black's votes are scummy but then scum are probably less likely than town to do something scummy like that so I am going to townread black instead

Please explain how this makes any sense at all

What is there you don't understand? Something that's blatantly 'scummy' is something scum will be mindful to avoid doing most of the time, whereas town are less likely to care

[Ausuka]

voting bingle -> me without a reason?

[Ausuka]

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

Everything is context dependent but on the whole i disagree with this

[Ausuka]

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

Everything is context dependent but on the whole i disagree with this

How would you define "scummy" if not as "like scum?"

Things that a lot people consider scummy

[Ausuka]

in this context at least

Idk i didn't think it was worded *that* badly, black seemed to understand what i was trying to say

[Ausuka]

[Ausuka]

At least one scum on Ausuka, scum loveeeeee jumping on the classic day 1 Ausuka wagon (which I would know because I have)

scum also love white knighting ausuka (which i would know because i have)

When did this happen

[Ausuka]

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

Everything is context dependent but on the whole i disagree with this

How would you define "scummy" if not as "like scum?"

Things that a lot people consider scummy

So what is the point you're actually making here then? Remove the word "scummy" from your vocabulary, what is it you're trying to point out about Black?

Doing things blatantly opportunistically - like voting the two biggest wagons consecutively without any real reason to do so - is something I think scum are less likely to do because they are the most preoccupied with playing how town 'should'

[Ausuka]

I mean, I was referring to the skygazer white knighting me part. I don't remember it happening

[Ausuka]

I'm not really worried about it but i'll let meuh explain herself instead of trying to explain it for her

[Ausuka]

I mean I distinctly remember you saying postgame you were trying to jump on skitter's push on me and like, the most you ever did was be like "yeah idk maybe ausuka isn't scum after all" when it was clear Ausuka Isn't Going To Happen but then afterwards was like "idk guys it's a LITTLE bit sussy ausuka isn't posting that much you know???"

I think comparing your play there to meuh's play here feels... Pretty disingenuous, especially when you have a much better comparison in, uh, Meuh's play in that game which is very similar to what she's done here? (viewtopic.php?p=13755145#p13755145) I'm also pretty sure she got heat for this same thing in that game, where she was town, so it feels a bit weird that you're doing that same thing here?

[Ausuka]

hey cook what are your thoughts on the leading wagons

i like all three but i think we're gonna mislim somehow

is there a reason you think this?

[Ausuka]

I think scum want to publicly town hunt this game. Like moreso than usual because I feel like the scum teams probably want to coordinate with each other as far as knocking off townies. The problem is townies are going to do this too because it's what townies do. So it might be hard to pinpoint where the noise is coming from but I think we can at least feel good about scum helping town sort

Isn't this a bit contradictory? If both scumteams are sharing genuine townreads, they're just making the PoE worse for them aren't they?

No, I like it as a take: scum are slightly more incentived to find town, especially day one where there's a lot of wiggle room after: they narrow down their Poe to one they are relatively confident with, but know that a) it's day one so it's bound to be a bit wrong b) it's day one so publicly re-assessing, especially after a 'nit their ream' scum slip is fine and c) they should also be doing it knowing that the other team are doing the same thing (which felt significant when I started this sentence)

Also, bkacks town for day one, this wagon is worse thab the bingle one

Do you townread black for agreeing with you on mech or is there something else to this?

[Ausuka]

My heart still says Drew, but I'll also take Cook or Black.

May compromise on Bingle, but I'd rather not yet.

Never voting for either of the 'sukas or Firebringer today, barring some wacky developments.

Whenever I've read a Drew post so far I just think "that sure is a Drew post" and then move on with very marginal changes of my perception of him
Probably doesn't help that his most substantial posting has revolved around the signaling stuff and that entire discussion's just went over my head

I think drew feels like town tbh but like conspiracy theory town

[Ausuka]

i may or may not be taking acid 2morrow

a poll: should my first bout of serious posting be on page 25+ while tripping acid? please vote:

a) yea
b) hell yea
c) nah
d) skyg what are ya doin drugs are illegal

e

[Ausuka]

I mean re: meuh as I said she made the same argument in a past game (the micro i linked) where she was town and she was right there so idk why she wouldn't go and do the same thing again here

I think bingle is still pretty likely to be scum but like... I don't think my reads have really changed for a while. Idk if that's my fault or if the thread just isn't that interesting right now

Anyway i'm gonna go sleep bye

[Ausuka]

I can't decide whether you should live or die

[Ausuka]

Or you can join me on the wagon that GeorgeBailey would approve of

Bingle

Or are you not a follower of GeorgeBailey?

To hell and back I would follow GeorgeBailey......but not to a Bingle wagon.

@doc what am i selling?

This kinder gentler Osuka......too much 'not wanting to ruffle feathers' tone from you.

I feel like we are reading entirely different games

[Ausuka]

hey cook what are your thoughts on the leading wagons

i like all three but i think we're gonna mislim somehow

is there a reason you think this?

(i have not read at all past my posts)

pattern in games i've been in of mislimming every time

Ok I mean fair

[Ausuka]

I think scum want to publicly town hunt this game. Like moreso than usual because I feel like the scum teams probably want to coordinate with each other as far as knocking off townies. The problem is townies are going to do this too because it's what townies do. So it might be hard to pinpoint where the noise is coming from but I think we can at least feel good about scum helping town sort

Isn't this a bit contradictory? If both scumteams are sharing genuine townreads, they're just making the PoE worse for them aren't they?

No, I like it as a take: scum are slightly more incentived to find town, especially day one where there's a lot of wiggle room after: they narrow down their Poe to one they are relatively confident with, but know that a) it's day one so it's bound to be a bit wrong b) it's day one so publicly re-assessing, especially after a 'nit their ream' scum slip is fine and c) they should also be doing it knowing that the other team are doing the same thing (which felt significant when I started this sentence)

Also, bkacks town for day one, this wagon is worse thab the bingle one

Do you townread black for agreeing with you on mech or is there something else to this?

It's not even that strong of a TR, but I've played a few times with black (or klick has) and she's someone I feel a) I can read after a day or two b) she tends to be able to work with people c) she's slightly overconfident that her scum meta is Very different d) the wagon on her felt very rushed and reactionary.

Am I having a brainfart because I feel like there was never really a black wagon at all never mind a rushed one

I mean it's just meuh and I don't think her read was especially bad

[Ausuka]

Ok true invis was voting her at one point but that was just like peaking at 2 votes for a few hours?

I guess I'm trying to ask where the vibe of like a rushed wagon on her came from

[Ausuka]

Hi so I got like chocolate oreo here it's really nice

[Ausuka]

I’d be interested in Ausuka/Merlyn takes on meuhs response to sg being you didn’t wk ausuka compared to scum wouldn’t wk ausuka.

I think it was towny because it was a good point about skygazer being sus rather than trying to defend herself from a vague hypothetical which wasn't really substantiated (and I also disagree with being a self proclaimed expert on ausuka)

[Ausuka]

Idk how to respond to the cook wagon because her posts are indeed ??? but like I do think she's like that as town too and usually gets limmed early sooooo hopefully the replacement is more readable

[Ausuka]

Ausuka, why do you disagree? You were in the same game with Osuka and I, you cannot say they are the same here.

Idk what to say except if you don't think osuka has been aggressive and "too nice" i think we are reading different games

[Ausuka]

It's rare. The only possible example that comes to mind is koba in team mafia and that might be what you're talking about but even then when I actually got wagoned they were just like, "oh lol ausuka might be scum because datisi isn't posting"

I don't think anything meuh has said has really been objectionable and a lot of the same things she has said about me in this game, she also said in a past game as town which I've linked - I'm not sure why I should believe meuh doing something I've previously seen town meuh do is supposed to be scummy

[Ausuka]

Okay, here's my readslist:

Spoiler: Wall O'Text Incoming

Osuka- town. I like the push on towl/Drew, and I’ve found that I tend to agree anytime they write ‘????????????’ about a post. I also don’t believe they were dumbtelling when they forgot the game setup.

Ausuka- town. Her argument and visible frustration with Bingle’s POV read genuine to me. Also some good questioning like in 607640.

The Bulge- townlean. Bulge laid out their case on Bingle very clearly and I can see their process in it, I find this authentic. It is looking a little tunnely but I don’t scumread a tunnel.

Firebringer- townlean. I may not agree with the Bingle case, but I think it’s an authentic case that FB actually believes.

Bingle- slight townlean. I don’t agree with the Ausuka case but I appreciate the case they made. The main reason I lean town though is bc his wagon is not a good one.

Meuh- ….town??? the slot I’m least certain of. But when I read her ISO I feel like the thing that pinged me is one thing vs. a lot of posts I agree with.

Invisibility- I lean slight town here. Viz has put her money where her mouth is and voted when things ping her, then returned to the bingle vote. The thing that keeps me from placing her higher is that I don’t know why she’s sheeping firebringer, and when people have asked she’s only made jokes about it. I mean I giggled at the jokes, but I don’t like that there’s no reason.

Sheepsaysmeep- null, will have to see more to know

Black- null. She’s asking good questions, I like her boldness with her votes. I have heard she’s really good at looking towny while scum but I have no personal experience with that, and I don’t want to fall down the WIFOM hole. The biggest thing that gives me pause here is the weird read Bella gave about her.

Skygazer- null, leaning scum. My genuine like of Sky makes me want her to be town, but the iso is pretty much all jokes. The one thing they’ve done for game-solving was the Auskua white knight thing, but she hasn’t followed up with any thoughts on what came from that.

Umlaut- slight scumlean. This is such a flip for me, I’ve been reading Umlaut as town for most of the game, but in ISO I realized their Ausuka vote is still based on this post 407 and they’ve never updated or revised it. I don’t like jumping on the cook wagon- the cook wagon is dookie.


Doctor Drew- Slight scumlean. I didn’t love towel’s posts but I see that Drew hasn’t really done anything to ping me. The signaling madness is very classic Drew to me, and he’s done it as town in every game I’ve been in with him. The thing that keeps me from moving him higher is the Whiskey Pocket, “I like Umlaut and I like Bingle” is not a good reason to sheep to me. I mean, I like you and that doesn’t mean I think I should automatically sheep you.


Radical Rat - leaning scum. I actually had this general vibe that they were town, but when I ISO’d I couldn’t figure out what led me to think that. They say their vote on Drew is because they’ve taken FB’s case against Bingle and repurposed it to Drew? 429 I also find the early compromise lim talk and the cook vote to be dookie.

Bellaphant-scumlean. It’s a small ISO, but I think her saying that the Black ‘wagon’ was bad is so odd considering there was no wagon and I really didn’t like her answer to Ausuka’s question in 631. I have heard the exact opposite about Black than what she posted here, and I notice Black has asked about it too with no response as of yet.

So yeah VOTE: Bella

I like this list and I think this is a good list

[Ausuka]

After reading this thread the word 'stupid' no longer feels like a real word

[Ausuka]

my first thought about this setup was like, intuitively maybe wolves would express scumreads less / differently from normal. because they dont wanna hit their partners. or they dont wanna realize someone might be their partner and be boxed into voting them

granted I skimmed the thread quickly and my brain is tired, but I thought "for whom can I not remember who they scumread" and it was u Dr drew. and then sort of invisibility, I remember he's just blindly sheeping or something.

beyond that I thought maybe ausuka but she's still like, tossing around skepticism/suspicion in a normal way I feel

I think scum is in

{Bingle, Umlaut, skygazer, bellaphant}

Bingle probably isn't like an especially strong read our of these honestly but also he's being wagoned so wynaut vote there

[Ausuka]

I think sheep is town, his reads feel believable

[Ausuka]

I can't believe Bingle would be so mean to poor innocent gentle osuka

[Ausuka]

{Bingle, Umlaut, skygazer, bellaphant}

Good list btw.
Well not certain on sky

But feelin good about this. Ausuka can join the Ultra town group with Meuh

No don't white knight me or we're going to get another 10 pages of the meuh debate

[Ausuka]

GeorgeBailey

[Ausuka]

I'm going to go with osuka because if I vote him he's gonna be really mean and call me names

Um actually I guess I'll go with meuh to create a townwagon

[Ausuka]

I will sort the playerlist into three tiers and then alphabetise them.

{Doctor Drew, Firebringer, Merlyn, Meuh, osuka, sheepsaysmeep}
{Black, Bulge, Invisibility, Radical Rat}
{Bellaphant, Bingle, Skygazer, Umlaut}

[Ausuka]

I don't think anything meuh has said has really been objectionable and a lot of the same things she has said about me in this game, she also said in a past game as town which I've linked - I'm not sure why I should believe meuh doing something I've previously seen town meuh do is supposed to be scummy

Which things? The biggest issue I have with both of you is the giant opaque wall of mutual townread with little reasoning, and the people who are heavily incentivized to mutually defend like that are the scumteam. Point at specific things that make you townread meuh and help me see what it is you see. Tell me why it's reasonable that meuh went from "eh maybe ausuka scum" to "pushing ausuka is really scummy" with very little from you in the middle. Show me exactly what meuh has done here that would be difficult to replicate as scum. I don't give a shit if it's "Post 3 pinged me as gut town." just give something that isn't vague as shit.

I doubt the scumteams are actually mutually defending each other. And like... I've explained two things already, I thought what you were saying about Meuh was actually towny in the sense of responding to the questionable part of what Sky is saying rather than using it to talk about why she is town or whatever. I think stuff like "oh she said it wasn't an exaggeration but actually it WAS an exaggeration" is also the sort of thing that looks reasonable but hits scum <rand amount of the time; town are more likely to hit back hard in ways where holes can be poked in it. Scum hit back hard on pushes too but are more likely to hit on notes like "this is stupid" where it's more difficult to argue against.

Again, I've mentioned this game. I've not sure if you read it - I think it's relevant to your arguments against Meuh - but this makes her progression on me seem completely natural. In this post, she mentions the *one* game she played with me and compared it to the game she was currently playing, saying the reasoning for the wagon was terrible because of it.

4. Ausuka's response to the push reminds me a LOT to the early push on her in the dance game, where she was town. The intensity of it, the feelings around it, the counter-scumread on someone who was scumreading her...
Unless Ausuka is very good at replicating this set of feelings and reactions as scum (she might be, I've only played once with her and she was town), to me this just lines up very well with her town game and the general stance she held when a lot of people were questioning her and the lack of backing down felt right.

Here she is outright townreading me for being similar to her past experience, again as town. Given that she was right about my alignment in that game, I really have no reason to believe she wouldn't be feeling something similar here or even stronger.

This is exactly what I did the last game I played. Ausuka had a strong reaction to a push and I took advantage of this to further cast doubt on her because I knew it was reasonable to and I wouldn't catch too much backlash for it. I can see your approach here aligning with my own scumgame quite well and it makes me uneasy.

Again and again, you can find the same stuff.

She also got scrutiny for this, or at least 'townreading ausuka too hard' in that game; I think in this game as scum, she wouldn't push me, and might lightly defend me, but it's counterintuitive that she would go as hard as she has when it's more likely to just put her in a bad position and win over, like, me, who is not necessarily a power-player in mafia games a majority of the time

Finally in terms of stuff i *haven't* already mentioned, I think scum meuh did have a habit of being super Reasonable and stuff as i said and making these Big Long Posts Which People Townread. stuff like 572 just gives me town vibes in general but especially given prior experience with meuh. It's like, if meuh is scum I expect her to talk more about her bingle read here and make a post people will nod along to rather than being like "Meh i considered voting bingle but actually no I won't fuck you"

[Ausuka]

Re: merlyn, even if you don't think it's reasonable I think 'townreading someone when you think the wagon on them is bad' is a believable thought process. I also think her talking about what wagons she would vote with a day until the deadline is... A perfectly normal thing to do

606 is the only point I really understand as a decent reason to vote, but when I look at that meuh post, I kind of see why she would have that thought shrug

[Ausuka]

Datisi continues to be violently britphobic

Can we just lim datisi

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Skygazer

i'm shooting for the stars

[Ausuka]

I was originally inclined to scumread you for that but then I realised I said the same thing about skitter in that game and she was town so it would be pushing the point of irony to do that

[Ausuka]

I think ppl are worried about sky being limbait and that's understandable but some of the things she's actually said while here pinged me

Obviously the joke about meuh, uh, kind of felt like it was meant to pile on the pressure against meuh at an opportune time. At the start of the game I thought skygazer's "oh please revote I really want to e-1" was like slightly performative on the note of 'scum wouldn't do something blatantly scummy' - which is *usually* a point I'm fine making myself, but in this instance skygazer ust kinda felt like she was trying to get in on the 'being towny' action and I know from this game she is pure chaos as scum anyway; for example she claimed detective who checked a claimed vigilante

[Ausuka]

(Also I think in times where it looks difficult for any elimination to go through eliminations on players like sky who haven't posted a lot are easier to achieve because there's little resistance - sorry sky! I think sometimes people are worried that this sort of 'compromise lim' is more likely to hit town, and that's usually somewhat fair - although I've seen it hit scum before and I think a lot of the time scum just don't want to go out of their way to protect their partners - but like, in this game half of the scumteam don't know if sky is scum or not, I don't think that applies here)

[Ausuka]

Also like, to be clear I have no doubt that sky is genuinely busy and would not be hyperposting as town and this is not about that, but I think the brand of post where you're like "I promise to catch up/give content soon" is like somewhat more likely to come from mafia? Iirc she did that quite a bit in the game we were mafia together and someone called her out on it. She played in a game I modded as town, where her activity was sort of spotty and I think she made similar comments once or twice, but it didn't feel like she was struggling in the way she is in this game, if that makes sense.

I also think when i was scum with her, she kinda fell behind in a semi-similar way giving not many reads, and in the mafia PT she said it was a combination of being genuinely busy and being cautious to make posts in case they are scummy, and this does sort of feel like that.

I do actually think she stuff she has posted is pretty scummy as well as I mentioned.

[Ausuka]

Ok, you know what?

Y'all are some dumbasses who want to lim Bingle.

If Osuka isn't gonna be the giant asshole, well then buckle up dickheads cause asshole Drew is here to fuck shit up, drink your booze, and bang your wife.

How are they more scummy then Ausuka? Or Osuka?

Sucka's gotta go.

I don't have a wife and I don't drink booze. Try harder tbh.

[Ausuka]

Are you still scumreading me because i said something confidently at one point

[Ausuka]

I think there is something about your tone Ausuka that makes me want to scumread you. Idk...it kinda feels like everything you do is carefully crafted and part of an agenda. It's really not a strong read at all tbh and most of the reason I'm down to lim you is due to a lack of other scumreads

What are your thoughts on Merlyn?

That's not even how I play scum tbh

Merlyn is probably town and I don't want to vote there, I think I've talked about that already. I don't want to vote for drew or sheep either. Bingle maybe but I'm not really confident he's going to flip scum at this point

[Ausuka]

Also like, to be clear I have no doubt that sky is genuinely busy and would not be hyperposting as town and this is not about that, but I think the brand of post where you're like "I promise to catch up/give content soon" is like somewhat more likely to come from mafia?

Are you saying this about Sky in particular or about people in general? Because I'm pretty sure I do that a lot more as town because I feel more guilty about not having done more.

I like this string of posts though.

Both tbh in that I think it's generally > rand scum and probably more so for sky based on what I know about them. It's not something that's super reliable and will hit mafia literally one hundred percent of the time but I think it's worth noting.

[Ausuka]

That's a pretty weak disclaimer :/ There is a lot of room between "complete nonsense" and "will hit mafia literally one hundred percent of the time," how reliable do you think this tell is?

idk dude do you want a mathematical equation here

[Ausuka]

I mean it depends on the context? It makes someone somewhat more likely to be scum, in the same way a lot of other things do. If I have literally nothing on someone except this, I guess that would be a scumlean? That's not really the case with sky though.

[Ausuka]

I think black's push on meuh is ??? but I don't see it as scummy

[Ausuka]

So uhhhh we aren't just gonna no lim right

Of the current people with two or more votes I think bingle is the best shot but i'm not too enthusiastic about that atp

I will be around tomorrow a few hours before deadline, and also probably somewhat for the next few hours

[Ausuka]

Also like, to be clear I have no doubt that sky is genuinely busy and would not be hyperposting as town and this is not about that, but I think the brand of post where you're like "I promise to catch up/give content soon" is like somewhat more likely to come from mafia? Iirc she did that quite a bit in the game we were mafia together and someone called her out on it. She played in a game I modded as town, where her activity was sort of spotty and I think she made similar comments once or twice, but it didn't feel like she was struggling in the way she is in this game, if that makes sense.

garbage take

you're better than this, ausuka

Spoiler: Response for osuka only

[Ausuka]

i want to go and look at the sky meta in more depth but im tired? i think she is still likely scum without the meta aspect fwiw but i admit this is partially just that i don't like any of the other targets

Firebringer is probably more likely to be scum than most of the wagons but probably less than Bingle

pedit: k

[Ausuka]

Mooh why do you even scumread merlyn

You seem to have gone from "meh i guess im not townreading merlyn" to "If you wagon anyone except merlyn or black I hate you and you suck"

[Ausuka]

Well I think it's an exaggeration to say it's an exaggeration

[Ausuka]

that emoji is really cursed on sepia

[Ausuka]

Tbh after reading drew's iso again i could maybe compromise there

He has towny vibes but his actual reads kind of suck and feel pretty stagnant. I guess I'm biased on me but his osuka read is also bad and static

pedit: I always copy people's homework

[Ausuka]

Merlyn just has very blegh posting and the reasons people have for townreading her are all bad, it's more of a broad feeling than specific moments
and a "I guess I'm not townreading Merlyn" sentiment feels worse the more content is provided because I'd expect Merlyn to do some townie stuff by now

Tbh the main reason I townread merlyn is because it felt like everyone was townreading umlaut and her read on him was like basically exactly what I was thinking at the time. I like a lot of the reads she gave tbh - like Sky and bella, and the reads on drew and RR also felt like believable to me? I mean to be fair, it does occur to me that Merlyn as scum doesn't know the alignment of any of these people, so maybe it's bad to assume genuine reads = town, but shrug I think even if it's weaker stuff like this is prob still more likely to be towny? I also think the reasons people have for scumreading her kind of suck ass for the most part.

I think in general people have been like 'scum can write readslists too' like yeah no shit but I think the reads are towny

[Ausuka]

Wait no one is even voting for drew lmao

[Ausuka]

ok im just going to sleep and vote whoever in the morning

[Ausuka]

Osuka made towel replace out and has spent the whole game calling people stupid but you have said he is scum for being insufficiently aggressive. If that was part of your case that's one thing but I'm pretty sure that's the main reason you want to kill osuka which is pretty difficult to believe for me.

Your read on me is stagnant - you voted me because you townread bingle and then said i was scum for thinking black was town because she wasn't self conscious or something? And like, since then i don't think you've really responded to anything i've said, including my clarification of that, vs just insisting I am scum repeatedly

[Ausuka]

I don't remember getting on your ass for that :c

[Ausuka]

VOTE: drew

I STAND WITH SHEEP

[Ausuka]

sheep did nothing wrong

[Ausuka]

Osuka made towel replace out and has spent the whole game calling people stupid but you have said he is scum for being insufficiently aggressive. If that was part of your case that's one thing but I'm pretty sure that's the main reason you want to kill osuka which is pretty difficult to believe for me.

Your read on me is stagnant - you voted me because you townread bingle and then said i was scum for thinking black was town because she wasn't self conscious or something? And like, since then i don't think you've really responded to anything i've said, including my clarification of that, vs just insisting I am scum repeatedly

First off, I have repeatedly said I don't town read Bingle per se, just not at the top of the list of people I want to lim.....i have been clear about that. I just think your case on Bingle is shit and your read on Black was/is bonkers......and you are totally dismissing why I had an issue with that read.

You have an issue with me because I simply think you are scum and are my top choice to lim and haven't moved because of that.

Pre Edit: Votes amirite lol

Not Sheep, Black maybe to compromise, Rat I would not like either.......Drew is OG, bad vote there

You have an issue with me because I said something you didn't agree with on page 10 and like none of your reads factor in anything that has happened since page 20

[Ausuka]

Osuka made towel replace out and has spent the whole game calling people stupid but you have said he is scum for being insufficiently aggressive. If that was part of your case that's one thing but I'm pretty sure that's the main reason you want to kill osuka which is pretty difficult to believe for me.

Your read on me is stagnant - you voted me because you townread bingle and then said i was scum for thinking black was town because she wasn't self conscious or something? And like, since then i don't think you've really responded to anything i've said, including my clarification of that, vs just insisting I am scum repeatedly

excuse me? i made towwl replace out? i wasn’t even going yet, even though that push would’ve been better if someone took a shit on their keyboard and hit it a couple times with a sledgehammer. i don’t know why they repd out and i don’t wanna make that the topic of conversation, but i feel like i have to point out that i really wasn’t that aggro

Tbh you're right that I shouldn't make that a topic of conversation but I think you have definitely been aggro to towel and other people

[Ausuka]

I have no idea what the vc is uh I'll go and make a fakecount

[Ausuka]

Black [6]: Firebringer, Meuh, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn (E-2)
Bingle [2]: The Bulge, osuka
Doctor Drew [2]: sheepsaysmeep, Ausuka
Firebringer [2]: Donempire, Black
Merlyn [1]: Invisibility
sheepsaysmeep [1]: Umlaut

not voting [1]: Skygazer

Deadline is in 4 and a half hours

I believe this is all in order

[Ausuka]

Black it is i guess

VOTE: Black

[Ausuka]

Wow guys I totally caught skygazer ignore the other red flip please

[Ausuka]

I think the shot was on meuh too but idk how to read into that because like mafia can just lie about their reads and whatever

I am considering to vote invisibility but will iso her when I have time, I'd be interested to hear opinions about her regardless

I think with drew I should probably just ignore him because when I townread someone for tunneling in a towny way and then start to scumread them because I don't believe the thought process can actually come from town they do have an annoying habit of just flipping town anyway.

[Ausuka]

I didn't expect Meuh to be scum lol

I believe u

VOTE: invisibility

[Ausuka]

I didn't expect Meuh to be scum lol

I believe u

VOTE: invisibility

why would I shoot Meuh

Probably because you thought she was town

I probably can't make a good big case, your pushes and reactions to things just feel less real than the other players in the game. I think the thing that stands out most to me is the push on merlyn where she's like saying who she wants to vote at eod and you're like, "also don't like Merlyn seemingly setting herself up to vote" it kinda reads like you decided you were going to push merlyn and then came up with reasons for it.

[Ausuka]

I didn't expect Meuh to be scum lol

I believe u

VOTE: invisibility

why would I shoot Meuh

like Meuh was working with me and townreading me and defending me and stuff. Why would scum!me, thinking Meuh is town, want to kill one of my only friends among the town, especially when pressure was starting to mount on me at the end of the day? If I did it to protect my partner then I still feel like there's better kills cuz basically everyone Meuh was suspicious of was also strong suspected by some other people. It only kinda makes sense if my partner is Donempire

I think you are exaggerating the extent to which she was doing this

She said she wasn't interested in an invis wagon and voted for merlyn, but that's about it.

I also think that scum are on the whole more likely to prioritise killing people who are likely to be town rather than killing people who scumread them or whatever.

[Ausuka]

I still think sheep is town but am more wary of being pocketed than I was yesterday LMAO. Still i felt like he has vibed town and i have like understood where he's coming from generally, and Cook is a limbait player

I don't think I'd support a vote on Bingle either though? I scumread him initially but I feel like he's gotten townier over time

I probably need to go back and actually read osuka but he hasn't seemed very different to town osuka to me largely and getting into fights over ??? things, like the bingle thing, does feel like part of the osuka lifestyle

[Ausuka]

Doctor drew when people try to get wagons through at deadline

[Ausuka]

yeet

Black [8]:

Firebringer,

Meuh

, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn, Ausuka, Donempire

[HAMMER]

Bingle [2]:

The Bulge

, osuka

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

sheepsaysmeep [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

I would be quite surprised to learn there was only one scum on Black.

Does anyone disagree with this and think it's likely there was only one scum on Black? Because that's... kind of important for where we choose to vote today.

Is it? Scum didn't even know Black's alignment and it was a rushed end-of-day wagon. I would have believed it possible that there were zero scum on the wagon if Meuh hadn't flipped red. There could also be three scum on the wagon or two or one, I don't know and I don't really see why you're treating it as a point of focus.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka, what are your thoughts of the world?

Clearly I was wrong about you being scum with Meuh, which makes me feel a lot better about you, actually.

\o/ rn every time i open the thread i want to close it again.

Invis and umlaut are probably where i want to look most right now. Invis's posts on d2 have just been about arguing the nk makes her town which doesn't really mesh with the idea she doesn't care about how she's read to me, and his d1 pushes particularly merlyn felt kind of in retrospect. It doesn't seem like there's any interest in limming there today though. Umlaut's focus on the wagon aspect, when scum didn't even know what black was and it was just a deadline wagon, felt meh. I was also not a fan of his vote on me d1 and how it was just 'you didn't do anything towny' at the stage of the game where PoE is like not really a thing, he didn't really talk about why my read on black was scummy after I clarified it or anything, etc etc. Ultimately as you have gone to great pains to stress I might be OMGUSsing so you decide if it's scummy or not shrug. I also don't really like how he plays normally a lot of the time, with the push on cook/sheep and basically most of his townreads, and then occasionally drops something like 'ausuka didnt post anything towny' or 'let's eliminate bingle for i n f o r m a t i o n'
Also to be more specific the meat of his push on sheep was like, sheep says "I prefer to lim not bingle but I can vote bingle over no lim" and umlaut is like "Well this is planning a jump onto the bingle wagon while not taking responsibility" even though that's just how deadlines work? it kind of just felt like he was trying to push sheep through rather than sort I guess. Maybe he got the sense sheep slot was probably town limbait and decided it was the best push? Idk, scumhunting is definitely harder when there's no actual informed minority

Idk if osuka is scum? stuff like stuff like, "you call this reason bad but you state that fb believes it. wouldn't that make it a "good" reason in his mind? it's clearly good enough to get him to vote you" makes me want to side with you in the argument and it's not like you were wrong about meuh being scum which was your conclusion from the whole thing. town wagoning town does happen all the time and 'wagonomics' or whatever is even less reliable in a game where, crucially, the scum do not know each other, so i'm not sure if i understand the point at all. i think my 'omgus' vote was explained but i feel like it's still common enough to call votes like that omgus. i do feel like saying ??? things is not a super reliable scumtell and i've had moments in the past where i didn't know what osuka was talking about and we were both town- but like scum osuka probably does do stuff like that too. Maybe drew saying 'osuka isn't being aggressive enough' made him ramp it up to 1000 to the point it makes no sense? It's kind of annoying to read and think about and i'm not super confident i'm going to get a read out of it. If osuka is scum it would make sense for him to be scum with firebringer

I struggle to read people like drew because instinctively I don't like his play and want to vote for him even though he feels somewhat like tunnelly town but I feel like, when I feel the way I do about drew, the person often ends up flipping town, if that makes sense? I feel like his reads have been super stagnant but I guess some people play like that. I'd probably just be willing to sheep someone towny on the drew read.

I think I townread you and sheep and not really anyone else. Merlyn and RR and maybe fire? Are probably more on the town side of neutral.

[Ausuka]

Osuka isn't 'as' clear of a read for me. It is based off vibes from previous games where they seemed way more aggressive. It really wasn't until the back and forth got going with Bingle didn't come out, but seemed a bit manufactured. I mentioned I this Ausuka has a high probability of being scum as well, this is partly because they were in the first game I was with Osuka and they keep saying they are just as, or more aggressive here, something isn't jiving there.

I don't think I have the previous experience with Osuka to say for sure but I felt like Osuka was pretty dang aggro out of the gate with 120 and 134

That's the thing, that is Osuka holding back. You are kinda seeing some of the real aggression come out now with the back and forth with Bingle.....but even that feels performative.

Also fuck you Bingle you piece of human garbage.....see? Totally not trying to buddy them lol.

I keep saying it, I just never saw what other people saw in Bingle. Plus he is part of the Whiskey Pocket, though so is Umlaut and I am feeling more wary of them as days go by.

Ausuka, I don't change my reads for the sake of changing them, you can call it stagnant, but if nothing causes me to change them why would I. That being said here is a nice 180 for you(or maybe a 90 lol), your reads list does read pretty towny and your fleshed out read on me is kinda how my game goes, so there is that.

Is it? I mean like my memory of the game you're talking about is vague, but iirc he started flaming when people started trying to lim him on d2 or whatever, and most of his play in that game is broadly similar to here. That doesn't make him town, I just didn't get what you were talking about. Also like, I think holding someone to a standard of "you have to insult people a lot and call everyone a big stinky idiot or you're scum" is kind of lame and incentivizes behaviour which makes the game less fun

I don't expect you to change your reads for no reason but usually people's reads just change over time naturally with new posts and new evidence. I guess you've been doing that more recently

[Ausuka]

fun fact:

Donempire is mod-confirmed to be aligned with the

town

.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: umlaut

i love wagons

[Ausuka]

Ausuka
Donempire

Bingle
sheepsaysmeep
Radical Rat
Doctor Drew
Firebringer

osuka
Merlyn
Invisibility
Umlaut

This technically counts as sticking to the three tier format

[Ausuka]

I like the 'who is willing to eliminate who' idea fwiw? It probably won't auto solve the game or whatever but it might be helpful to look at, and it makes mafia commit to a townread on their partner or risk a suspicious-looking pivot later on.

I think my list above is sorted into people I wouldn't really be interested in voting today and people I could be

[Ausuka]

If nothing else maybe it'll help us figure out who the viable lim targets are before deadline is a day away

[Ausuka]

Something I wanted to bring up before I forget

Skygazer can you scumhunt please I wanna townread you on vibes but I'm too smart to do that again

At least one scum on Ausuka, scum loveeeeee jumping on the classic day 1 Ausuka wagon (which I would know because I have)

scum also love white knighting ausuka (which i would know because i have)

I think while it's not *guaranteed* they did this, if/when we start looking for potential partners, we should look for distancing like this. I think most scum players bus a lot, and in a situation where the

instinctive

idea is that scum will hard defend each other, I think most people are still going to try and be 'unconventional' by doing something like this. It's not hard bussing - Meuh later calls the sky wagon terrible and tries to deflect away from it - but I think it's likely that early on, scum are likely to have mentioned each other by name, and the interaction probably involves them notably not townreading each other.

I also think that on an individual basis, people who are more confident / unconventional players, like firebringer I guess, are more likely to not do this and maybe even go in the opposite direction as a WIFOM play. More conventional players - like I guess merlyn? - are probably more likely to follow this pattern?

If I'm right about this then uh, the most likely scum partner for Merlyn would be Umlaut or maybe Drew? For Umlaut, Merlyn or FB make the most sense. For invis, I think drew or FB or maybe sheep?

This is pretty speculative and not really the strongest thing in the world, but we kind of have to preflip because we don't really

get

post-flip associatives in this game, and I think this could at least be a helpful contributor to later see more likely teams and who does or doesn't have a number of viable scumteams, shrug

[Ausuka]

I mean I am willing to bus merlyn today - she broadly has the feeling of a townread I'm wrong about, sometimes I do incorrectly townread people who defend me. I also think scum often play d1 well and kind of lose steam over time and her recent play has been kind of bad?

The only thing is she is v/la so I don't think pushing there is going to do a lot currently.

[Ausuka]

It would also be funny if meuh tried to get merlyn killed and merlyn killed her in retaliation lmao

[Ausuka]

Looking through merlyn's iso again there is sort of a lack of organic reads progression which I associate with scum

Idk how to feel about umlauts recent posting because on a gut level it did feel kinda towny but I'm not sure how difficult it is for mafia to actually fake.

VOTE: Merlyn

I guess I will join this sorry frog friend

[Ausuka]

If the team is merlyn/sheep I will be very sad

[Ausuka]

Winning the game is for nerds

[Ausuka]

How dare you

[Ausuka]

yeet

Black [8]:

Firebringer,

Meuh

, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn, Ausuka, Donempire

[HAMMER]

Bingle [2]:

The Bulge

, osuka

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

sheepsaysmeep [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

I would be quite surprised to learn there was only one scum on Black.

Does anyone disagree with this and think it's likely there was only one scum on Black? Because that's... kind of important for where we choose to vote today.

Is it? Scum didn't even know Black's alignment and it was a rushed end-of-day wagon. I would have believed it possible that there were zero scum on the wagon if Meuh hadn't flipped red. There could also be three scum on the wagon or two or one, I don't know and I don't really see why you're treating it as a point of focus.

I disagree. It was rushed but that exact reason might be why scum voted there in the first place. In hindsight knowing black's flip that should be obvious, but scum had 11/13 chance of hitting town, and the less discussion on one the better, so i agree with umlaut that there should be at least one more scum on the wagon. Scum would gain to rush a wagon that they knew at least didn't have their team, lest the discussion turn around and hit one of them. You have to realize self preservation comes before the preservation of the entire scum team.

Tbh i think this is just really blatantly wrong. There was plenty of 'discussion'. There was no chance to have any more 'discussion' - we were literally *hours away from the deadline*. And there's nothing there that separates black from any of the other wagons. They have no reason to care if it's black or someone else - the situation is the same either way. This speculation about 'wagons' just seems utterly useless. I guess you thinking this makes me feel better about umlaut at least.

[Ausuka]

Y'all. I am at the lake. I do not care about this game as much I do about being on a boat with beers rn. Go ahead and lim me if you want, but keep an eye on who decided to wagons roll on someone V/LA. That's where I'm going to be looking anyway should I live when I get back.

I don't expect you to respond or really do anything about the wagon while you're on v/la but like I don't really see the problem with voting someone if you want to do it shrug

[Ausuka]

It was obvious in hindsight the way they vote hopped until a lim happened.

This, actually, strikes me as really fake, now that I'm thinking about it. Like, meuh doesn't really stand out to me amongst the other people around EoD for votehopping. And I can definitely see "Well obviously Meuh was scum at EoD 1 for *shitreason*" as a thing scum would post to make it look less likely they're the one who shot Meuh.

VOTE: Drew

I mean he said this before meuh flipped

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

[Ausuka]

I think osuka sheeping donempire is +scum because I think donempire is pretty likely to lead town down the entirely wrong track and i don't think osuka is the type of player i expect to naturally sheep often

I think sheep continues to be towny

The point about merlyn is one i kind of agree with, although i was thinking about it more in the lens of what other people are doing to save merlyn; it's possible it's just umlaut doing a big brain gambit, or merlyn is scum with sheep, or like it could just be someone else like RR etc etc but it's at least worth taking into account

I guess i will probably iso osuka? Idk if i want to vote drew but i'm open to listening to arguments why i should

[Ausuka]

We had like three hours left genuinely what do you want me to do

[Ausuka]

I tried to eliminate skygazer who was aligned with the mafia - which I think if I was mafia I would have also been aware that was likely and *would not* have pushed skygazer - and everyone was like 'lol no fuck off ausuka'

I never scumread black and i never expected her to flip scum. I also do not want to no eliminate on day 1.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Skygazer

i'm shooting for the stars

VOTE: drew

I STAND WITH SHEEP

???

[Ausuka]

You don't need to take my word for it, you can look at her iso and ask yourself why anyone would think that was town

[Ausuka]

Why didn't you? There was only a 20 minute difference between our votes

[Ausuka]

And i don't really think drew is scum tbh. I mean I probably would have taken drew over black at the time so it doesn't matter that much for this specifically.

I think osuka and invisibility are good eliminations for today - I don't really want drew and I'm cooling on merlyn.

[Ausuka]

I did the osuka iso and it's like... Idk osuka is hard to read, but i think that while i stand by the idea his general style here is the same as in previous games, there is a bit of a hollowness to his reads I guess? It's not a super strong thing, but I feel like he makes sure to have One Big Tunnel - towel slot and then bingle for most of the game - and then the rest of his reads are like ???. Even with the bingle read, it's like... Even as scum I get the sense osuka believes *some* of what he's saying, but I think he's too happy to escalate the shitfight over weird things. Like, when bingle says he thinks his wagon is mostly town, osuka says something like "this is basically just a scumclaim, to say everyone on your wagon is town and has good reasons and we're all skipping in a field of daisies" and bingle is like "I think they have bad reasons" and osuka is then just like "well if they're town it's not bad reasons to them, can you even fucking read bingle jesus fucking christ" and it's just ??? and it kind of makes me feel like he's cranking up the aggro to 100 on purpose to make himself seem aggressive and possibly to satisfy the watchful eyes of doctor drew

I do also feel like, with town osuka, you probably have the same sense of aggressiveness and I don't expect to agree with everything he says but like... I kind expect townsuka to be more messy and like fight more with different people and whatever. This can partially be explained by osuka just not being that engaged compared to previous games but shrug I'm not totally confident in any read here. All the fire is aimed at bingle and then he just sheeps donempire for ??? reasons which obviously like, call it omgus and it kind of is omgus but whatever I don't care I don't like it. I think as scum here you are going to be in a very tough spot getting like, 5 consecutive miselims or whatever, and it would probably be a lot easier if you can get people to sheep donempire and lim 3 townies for wagonomics or something.

[Ausuka]

I'm also getting better feelings about umlaut recently? The jump on the merlyn wagon was pretty blatant in a way I feel like scum would ?maybe? be more cautious about, and the unvote feels sort of genuine? Not really townreading him at this point but shrug

[Ausuka]

VOTE: osuka ok

Fwiw something that is like influencing my read on osuka is, like, usually part of what makes mafia such a difficult game is that scum can just act like their town selves by voting anything they would normally consider scum indicative. I do not think mafia can do that so easily in this game because they risk actually hitting scum which is kind of a catastrophic event. Stuff that seems forced and unnatural in a way I don't like is... honestly not something I consider a reliable scumtell most of the time, because sometimes townies do things I don't get, but I feel like in this specific game scum have incentives to make pushes they wouldn't believe as town and that changes the game a lot. Like if osuka just thought the wagon on bingle was really stupid and bingle was town, he could decide then to just tunnel bingle

[Ausuka]

I don't have as much on invis tbh I just think she's generally been pretty meh in her contributions so far, I do not really think she has done anything town indicative (I think invis would do the wagon hopping regardless of alignment) and I don't like his pushes either. Also the "I wasn't expecting meuh to flip scum" entrance kind of felt like an "oops sorry meuh that was kind of fucked up" post

Looking at the lead wagons, I'd rather lim Bingle than sheep. I guess. A Sheep lim would give so little info. But I hate lims that the best reason is 'we'll get a lot of info when you die!'

also don't like Merlyn seemingly setting herself up to vote

In the stead of a real post I will instead assign homework

Do people here like, read this, and believe it's a town thought process? Could you see yourself potentially coming to this conclusion, do you think there's a point here?

[Ausuka]

I will try to iso people at some point because i'm like not really sure about a lot of people in this game - I think drew and sheep will be the people I look at next. I looked at sheep in scarfolk council (scum sheep) and i did find some of his posts towny so I can't rule out that my read there is wrong - I do probably townread his style naturally - but i'm not sure it really felt the same either. Basically meta isn't going to help that much and I need to reread him

[Ausuka]

Your health is obviously more important and I don't expect you to play mafia if you're dealing with serial hangovers. Not that I really know what that's like but it sounds painful

I don't think that's really a scummy response but idk if I give everyone benefit of the doubt on things I find suspicious it's just like who do I even push here. I would be pretty surprised if Bingle flipped red and rat is uh. Ok I should have another look at Rat but I don't remember anything pinging me a whole lot

[Ausuka]

VOTE: osuka

Umlaut saw me townreading him for the blatant opportunism and has decided to max out his opportunism stat

[Ausuka]

You need fire water earth and air in order to achieve balance

[Ausuka]

what the fuck did I just read?

[Ausuka]

like i guess this is a response so the irony of that isn't lost on me, but there's like just nothing of substance that i can actually try to address beyond "the push on bingle was weird and i guess he's playing differently than what he used to". but crucially, both of those points are fairly weak and i have plausible deniability without looking any further than personal play variance, but you and i both know that so i think that's nothing other than an attempt to put pressure on me to see how i react.

did i pass the reaction test?

It's not really a reaction test. I mean I guess I was hoping to see how you reacted and make a judgement based on that but I wasn't lying about anything. Unfortunately your response is like slightly +town which is probably the worst situation because it doesn't really push me to a point where I want to see you dead today or I would rather kill someone else

I think the generic response to this is like - Yes my case on you isn't massively strong but we need to kill someone today and I don't have a better alternative right now. I also think that like, even when there is a plausible explanation for town osuka doing something, it still increases the chances that you are scum. If you can't respond to it or whatever I understand why that would be frustrating but it doesn't really change the situation for me. It's possible that you just got disengaged and were like "fuck it don is conftown baa baa" for example, but on the other hand, I do not think town osuka is that likely to sheep someone who has not done anything worth sheeping even if they are confirmed town, and generally I think donempire is likely to be on an immensely wrong track here and when town is doing that scum are likely to support and encourage them, especially when they have an excuse (like donempire being confirmed town or whatever) so overall it makes me think scum osuka is more likely.

Similarly it's possible that you would not really have strong feelings about anyone outside bingle this whole time because you've been disengaged the entire time or whatever and just woke up and decided to fight bingle one day but I think it does make more sense coming from scum because you would be trying to eliminate the players you thought were most likely to be town and I think that makes it significantly more difficult to fabricate organic reads and stuff. To be fair that does apply less to today but whatever that was like a continuation of what you were already doing.

I think there are like, more reasons to townread you than there are to townread invisibility, like the townslip thing I guess and you kind of pinged me as town early in the game, but overall I don't have that many good reasons to townread you right now. I would also need like a superior alternative wagon and I don't know if merlyn wagon is actually better. I guess I can iso merlyn again and think about it

Pedit: No, i was talking about donempire self voting and the surrounding posts

[Ausuka]

Oh i forgot to mention I think osuka townreading me makes it kinda less likely for town osuka to sheep donempire on me specifically? Like he obviously doesn't have that many reads but i think especially for a generally confident person you would at least want to vote someone who seems vaguely suspicious or whatever

[Ausuka]

I mean i'm not necessarily opposed to switching wagons but i don't really see why i should vote drew

[Ausuka]

uwu

idk i think invis is probably the most likely candidate but i'm really not confident in anything lmao

[Ausuka]

I was instinctively opposed to the scumteams idea but actually like, whatever I don't have anything better and maybe I will have some new epiphany when I read.

Briefly covering the scumteams I have


Invisibility/umlaut - 141 can be a team, i think scum are likely to do early kind-of-distancing stuff. Could the stuff about invis asking bella why she suspects invis and umlaut be a scumteam? Eh maybe, i just had a game where scum literally claimed their partner on page 1 so. 1293 is arguably not a scumteam but if i'm an invisibility/umlaut scumteam in this situation i think 'fuck it we bus' is a pretty reasonable approach to take and hope people realise umlaut has no partners? Overall, it is possible this scumteam exists but there's not that much compelling evidence for it

Invisibility/radical rat - There isn't really much here. I guess rat going out of their way to deconstruct the idea from Drew that invis is scum-signalling is like... Probably less likely to be teamed because I think it's at least counterintuitive to do that.

invisibility/sheep - sheep townreading invis and then trying to kill her towards the end of day 1 is kinda the opposite of the trajectory i'm looking for, I don't see this as a likely team right now

invisibility/bingle - the interactions between these two don't look great. invis votes bingle sporadically but near deadline would rather do merlyn. Bingle really does not want to kill invis. this could be a team but shrug i don't really think bingle is scum. Even so if bingle is scum i would bet it's probably with exactly invis

drew/merlyn - "Merlyn, I hope you are here.....you voted me but really haven't mentioned me as of late." this can be a scumteam line. The merlyn push on drew also seems pretty scum-team-able since the drew pushing didn't really happen in the business end of d1. Seems pretty dubious of merlyn d1 but doesn't vote her during the whole WAGON MERLYN moment. Dctively goes out of his way to push her d2 and merlyn is also like "Drew is sooooo sus guys" but meh again if you're drew and merlyn I can kind of see that approach as a sort of hail mary. This is another 'can be the team' moment

drew/sheep - the way drew is really insistent he doesn't know who sheep replaced makes these two easier to see as partners. Drew hard townreading sheep seems like a fairly reasonable approach to take, doesn't want to vote cook. On the other hand sheep's 'park on drew' moment towards the end of day 1 is pretty unpartnered - iirc there was a genuine threat to drew in this time and the push feels pretty genuine to me - so I don't think this is it?

drew/fb - GeorgeBailey? the drew iso doesn't have much, but fb insisting drew is town and then softing out of it at the end of day 1 and pledging to vote drew if the cards fall that way (by saying he wants to vote drew or black) doesn't really feel like something scum would do; i think he can get away with just not pretending he's willing to vote drew - it's not like drew is ever going to flip without him - and i think firebringer as a player is too bold to hedge on that when it hurts him in this situation.


drew/rat - My gut says the way drew townreads rat doesn't really feel like pocketing, particularly 463 and the violence with which rat has pushed drew makes very little sense coming from partners; it's not much use distancing if you lose the game as soon as drew dies, and rat like... doesn't really need to do this? like, if i'm in rat's position, i never push drew like they have, so shrug this is the first one i'm comfortable ruling out.

ok i'm done whee. I feel like marginally better informed

[Ausuka]

Wow datisi is lax on everyone else but for me he has the prod timer ready on hours, minutes and seconds

[Ausuka]

Datisi will always pay more attention to me cos he's my bestie

[Ausuka]

Drew why did your read on me change

I know you said something about my reads list? I'd that elaboratable

[Ausuka]

Prodge again blah

My head is too far out of this game and getting it back in is going to be work. I hate doing work.

VOTE: Merlyn to make it "not a prodge"

This is a mood

Is merlyn scum? Idk maybe lol

[Ausuka]

Drew why did your read on me change

I know you said something about my reads list? I'd that elaboratable

Long story shot, the more I soaked you in the more reasonable you seemed. I wasn't getting a scum mentality from you even though we were disagreeing on certain things.

IE, Bingle and Osuka

I guess I'd like to know like... When you thought the disagreement was scum originally, what was the difference then? Did I have like a scum mindset at that point?

[Ausuka]

I mean tbh i am extremely burnt out right now and although i was planning to force myself to trawl isos at some point i am willing to sheep since pooky is better than me anyways? I wouldn't even mind just letting pooky chainlim two people until 5p elo tbh since if he's scum we just have to kill him and we auto win gg

Fwiw i asked datisi if the kill order meant anything and he was like "no ausuka you idiot shut up" so we don't know that. It would take a pretty curious individual to kill skygazer on night 1 though so i assume it was meuh anyway.

[Ausuka]

I didn't really see the bingle start of day 2 thing that way, I thought invis being like "oops i thought meuh was town" was more scummy than bingle being like "fuck yeah im bingle and im going to brag" cos like i think killing scum n1 is a major mechanical mis-step. I was thinking it's rare for scum to kill people they scumread, but I guess it's possibly different in this game, since people you scumread in thread are probably people you think are town and people you think are town are probably the ones you want to kill? Even so i felt like bingle scumreading meuh when meuh's position on him was "meh i guess bingle is scummy but i'm not voting him losers" was a natural thin to do??

But it's not like i really have a better idea right now. I was gonna iso drew and merlyn again maybe i should still do that

[Ausuka]

RR i control + f'd drew in your iso and I didn't find why you are scumreading him past the first half of day 1. Did i miss something

[Ausuka]

oh shit

[Ausuka]

mm

VOTE: bingle

sorry if this is wrong! i would understand being annoyed by this, although bingle didn't really seem like he cares about the game that much more than i do right now. i do have a very hard time efforting right now especially cos most of the game is in the same boat as me and if pooky is like caring about the game and confident and willing to bop himself i'm down for it. I also don't really feel bad about the idea of boping pooky for this because that's umlaut slot and bingle also said pooky was scum sooo whatever

if i have to give a reason, the 'bragging rights' line from bingle rubbed me the wrong way. it's fine to argue that pooky wouldn't let himself get bop'd, whatever, but the line at first is that if pooky is going to lose he's going to push bingle for bragging rights - which is like, if you push for a bop, get someone limmed, and lose the game for your partner, is that really a bragging rights moment? - and then kind of seamlessly pivots to the more sensible sounding argument even though I don't really think the two is that capable. It would make the most sense if this was bingle's reaction to pooky catching him off guard?

pedit: yes

[Ausuka]

gg thanks datisi sorry for being bad