How to win as Mafia: Calculated Inaction

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Post Post #57 (isolation #0) » Wed May 11, 2011 1:45 am

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Mr. Flay wrote:
Lord Gurgi wrote:Being alive means you can gain more information to make better decisions. Other people won't do that as reliable as you will.

Logical fallacy.


Depends on realistic assessment of your own scumhunting abilities. If you're Glork, it's true. If you're Shotty, it's not. Unfortunately, the crux of the whole 'VI Problem' is that, basically, those who play to survive as town the most are those whose survival as town is least valuable.

In both Simpsons and WoW Mafia, the towns were severely hamstrung by the fact that pretty much everyone who was competent and town died in the first three days.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #1) » Thu May 12, 2011 5:59 am

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Sure. But the risk of the 1:0 cop holding a guilty dies overnight scenario has to be factored in.
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Post Post #65 (isolation #2) » Thu May 12, 2011 6:28 am

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True, but you're basically assuming he'll hit scum the next night, which you can't do.

What I will say, actually, is we seem to have seen a decline in cops trying to get their guilty lynched without coming out. I don't see the harm in trying to push their lynch through 'normal' channels for the first half of the day. If it doesn't work, then you claim.
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Post Post #73 (isolation #3) » Thu May 12, 2011 11:53 am

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Results? You are telling me HE DIDN'T CLAIM WITH MULTIPLE GUILTIES?
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Post Post #85 (isolation #4) » Thu May 19, 2011 1:28 am

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Town is still far more likely to attack a player for 'craplogic' or 'opportunism' or because their vote 'looks like a bus' than they are to vote a lurker who's said a couple of reasonable-sounding things.
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Post Post #91 (isolation #5) » Thu May 19, 2011 11:06 am

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It wasn't as a result of that game, it's just that I was holding off posting it because it was a point of contention in that game.
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Post Post #119 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:34 am

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Lord Gurgi wrote:That was the point I was trying to subtly put across. Glad you got it. Lynching groups of people isn't effective because the averages aren't in your favour.


The problem is that lurking people produce far fewer other scumtells, by dint of the fact that scumtells other than lurking tend to be found in posts. So you have to be willing to lynch lurkers, or at very least, count small scumtells from players who are also posting sporadically as much bigger deals than from players who are giving lots of content.

Xyl made a really good post in a similar thread a couple of years back. People are a lot more inclined to remember 'scummy' things people have done, than townish things they haven't. Scumminess by commission rather than by omission, as it were. The guy who's trying but makes one illogical argument or opportunist-looking vote is likely to be labelled as scum by several people. The guy who stays in the background, takes a couple of popular, non-controversial stands and doesn't stick his neck out is likely to be tagged 'neutral read.' I mean, I bet in every large normal game, you'll be able to find a list of all the players (which are scummy in themselves) with at least one entry that says 'Hasn't posted enough to get a real read. Neutral.'

I mean, that's the whole point of this thread, isn't it?

Magister Ludi wrote:The point is by lynching lurkers, you force lurkers not to lurk, which forces them to pretend to be more towney, which grows harder as the days roll on by. If you don't lynch lurkers, you're forced to confront them eventually.


Or you get to the stage when there's only lurkers and scum left, scum having killed the townies who're trying if they haven't been at each other's throats to the extent of getting each other lynched already. And Ludi's right. Often merely applying pressure with the credible threat of lynch is enough to stop lurkers lurking. The key word being 'credible-' if they make an 'I'm going to lurk, either lynch me or learn to live with it' ultimatum, you lynch them.

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