I'm not wildly enthusiastic, but I'd be willing to help.Lord Gurgi wrote:/in
I am also of the opinion that Xyl or JDodge should be hauled in for this. They have a different point of view than who I expect to be on this team.
Open Setup Certification Group
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#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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I get home at 7 PM PST, and I can only use AIM from home. So... probably not going to work.Lord Gurgi wrote:
I get home at maybe 4 PM PST, that gives us 2 hours maximum window.Korts wrote:
I could stay up late Wednesday, depending on what time approximately you intend to be up. I can be until 2-3 AM GMT+1 (8-9 PM East Coast Time) tops.Lord Gurgi wrote:
I'm fine with either, you guys? Korts is also a consideration, timezone being an element.Adel wrote:
Tuesday or Wednesday.Lord Gurgi wrote: Would it be wise or feasible for us to get together on AIM to discuss this?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Before we charge into certifying setups, maybe we should do some thinking about what sort of stuff to look for.
* Breaking strategies - there are a few of these that pop up over and over. It would be good to make a checklist to consider. Pairing, circling, hypocop, having a certain role always claim immediately (usually with doc)... what else?
* EV - games which have very high or low EVs under random lynches tend to be broken, but what's "very high" or "very low"?
* Degenerate endgames - kingmaker situations, happily ever after, any others? Even if these don't disqualify the setup we should decide what would happen if they come up.
* Game length - sometimes the game can end very quickly due to night actions. Should that be considered? Should it ever be disqualifying by itself?
* Night vs day game - how much of a game can be decided by correct night choices?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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We should borrow Tarhalindur's format.
Then the crunchy bits can be predone as part of the setup, and the actual mod can write the flavor.
A few paragraphs of italicized flavor text or a relevant quote.
Welcome to [GAME NAME],[PLAYERNAME]. You are[ROLE NAME] (from [POINT OF ORIGIN]). [Flavor text justifying that role name's presence and abilities in the game.]
You are a[FACTION AND ROLE CLASS]. [BASE FACTIONAL ABILITIES, IF NECESSARY]. [In addition to your abilities as a a member of FACTION,] You have the following special abilities:
Factional Abilities [NON-TOWN ONLY]:
[ABILITY 1 NAME]- [ABILITY 1 EFFECT].(Reminder text if necessary.)(note: almost always a falseclaim ability)
[OTHER FACTIONAL ABILITIES, IF ANY, GO HERE]
Passive Abilities [IF APPLICABLE]:
[ABILITY 2 NAME]- [ABILITY 2 EFFECT].(Reminder text if necessary.)
[OTHER PASSIVE ABILITIES, IF ANY, GO HERE]
Active Abilities [IF APPLICABLE]:
ABILITY 3 NAME- [ABILITY 3 EFFECT].(Reminder text if necessary.)
[OTHER ACTIVE ABILITIES, IF ANY, GO HERE]
Please note that you may only use one active ability per day. [CHANGE IF ROLE ALLOWS MULTIPLE ABILITY USES OR HAS FURTHER RESTRICTIONS]
[WIN CONDITION] (Note: Usually "You win when all other factions have left the game, or nothing can prevent the same.")
Please confirm via [CONFIRMATION METHOD].#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Well... let's start by certifying some setups, and then we can work on role PMs if we run out of other things to do
I'm pretty sure we can safely certify C9 and vengeful without any major changes.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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It has an uninformed majority, an informed minority, and lynches. Why shouldn't it go in Little Italy?Ether wrote:Rebels in the Palace confusion(by the way I have no idea how that setup ever got to Little Italy)#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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I think the problem is that newbmods may not know which differences are functional.Ether wrote:That doesn't need to extend to streamlined role PMs; just to working out all cases beforehand.
EDIT: I don't have a problem with requiring setup-designers to write sample PMs, but this doesn't necessarily cover all cases as you're implying--for example, whether a roleblocker or a gaoler would get priority. And it shouldn't keep newbmods from typing up their own PMs as long as they're functionally the same.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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I think anything that's run 3 times without problems is safe enough. Going by mith's list those would be
If anyone wants more discussion any of those setups, speak up and we'll flag that setup for the next pass. Then we can approve the rest by acclamation.Last edited by Xylthixlm on Sun Mar 08, 2009 7:17 am, edited 4 times in total.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Let's see. Nightless games are balanced at a 3:1 town:scum ratio, so a night start game should need a 7:1 town:scum ratio. 70 townies, or 69 if it's day start.mith wrote:(Just out of curiosity: How many players would you guess are needed to balance, 50-50, a Vanilla game with 10 scum? I may post a little "balance quiz" tomorrow, see how user perception matches up with the EVs.)
EDIT: Actually that doesn't work exactly; a night start game isn't quite the same as a nightless game with half as many players but the same number of scum, because the scum in the nightless game have more voting power. So, more like 65 townies or so.
EDIT2: I think I've got a fundamental error here. Grrrr.
EDIT3: Oh yeah, nice big fundamental error.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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It actually is linear in nightless. With nightkills, not so much.Lord Gurgi wrote:Am I alone in thinking that the relation between size and power of mafia groups is not linear?
I see 2:4 or even 2:5 as being much more balanced than 4:8 or 3:9.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Okay, here's the setups that were flagged:
Let's start with nightless vanilla since I expect that will be easiest
I definitely think that nightless vanilla games belong in the open queue. However, we should discuss specific sizes & scum-counts. The theoretical 50% point (with random lynches) for vanilla nightless is 1 scum:3 townies. I think that's a good balance, so I'd suggest certifying these three setups:
2:6 vanilla nightless
3:9 vanilla nightless
4:12 vanilla nightless
Thoughts?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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We could certify a variable-players nightless vanilla setup (game starts at a preset time with however many players are signed up), with the number of scum depending on the number of players. It would be good as an always-offered option, although it might need some tweaking on how often they run.
7-9 players: 2 scum (2:5 to 2:7)
10-13 players: 3 scum (3:7 to 3:10)
14-16 players: 4 scum (4:10 to 4:12)
17-20 players: 5 scum (5:12 to 5:15)#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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I don't think the argument about "obvtown" holds water. If ascummanages to get counted as "obvtown", they'll win! Nightless is basically a challenge where the scum try to get one of their number into the last two players lynched (or 2 of them into the last 4, or 3 into the last 6, etc), and the town try to stop them.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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That table looks fine to me.mith wrote:I'd break that down differently:
6-8 players: 2 scum (2:4 to 2:6)
9-12 players: 3 scum (3:6 to 3:9)
13-16 players: 4 scum (4:9 to 4:12)
Also, given the number of 7, 9, and 12 player setups that are run all the time anyway, I'd propose that we consider excluding them from the setups that can be run with variable numbers (Vanilla, Nightless, and Lovers being the most likely, I guess).
I don't see the point of excluding specific numbers from variable-numbers; if exactly 12 people sign up for nightless vanilla in whatever the window is, let them play nightless vanilla with 12 people.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Ew. Statistics. Let's see if I can remember this, I try to repress it....
To do this correctly, you need a hypothesis and a null hypothesis. Then you calculate the probability of seeing the results you saw if the null hypothesis is true. If it's low enough (usually 5%) you reject the null hypothesis.
The null hypothesis here would be that town wins at most the amount you would expect from random lynches (1/3). The hypothesis is that the town does better. Assuming the null hypothesis, the chance of town winning all three times is 1/27, or 3.7%. That exceeds our 5% significance level, so we reject the null hypothesis; the data is enough to conclude that town probably does better than the random lynch EV in 4:8 nightless.
How muchbetter is an open question.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Fine. We approve vanilla nightless with the following scum ratios:
6-8 players: 2 scum (2:4 to 2:6)
9-11 players: 3 scum (3:6 to 3:8)
12-16 players: 4 scum (4:8 to 4:12)
If there are no objections, let's move on to more interesting stuff.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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You broke the formatting. You're actually suggesting this:shaft.ed wrote:
I added two extra ratios.mith wrote:6-8 players: 2 scum (2:4 to 2:6)
9-12 players: 3 scum (3:6 to 3:9 and 4:8)
13-16 players: 4 scum (4:9 to 4:12 and 5:11)
6-8 players: 2 scum (2:4 to 2:6)
9-11 players: 3 scum (3:6 to 3:8)
12 players: 3 or 4 scum (3:9 or 4:8)
13-15 players: 4 scum (4:9 to 4:11)
16 players: 4 or 5 scum (4:12 or 5:11)
I'd really like to nail down those "or"s.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Ether wrote:Speaking of prisoner's dilemmas, is there any way to resolve symmetrical ones without a heavy chance of a town win that didn't involve the town failing to catch scum up to that point?Shootout Rule:If night starts with three players alive, all of whom are on different teams, a gun battle breaks out which kills everyone (including the poor innocent townie who gets caught in the crossfire). The game is a draw.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Let's deal with the one-scumgroup setups first.
I move that "Trendy and Subversive C9" be taken out back, shot, and buried with all the other setups that contain a nurse and/or backup cop.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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The cop claims, then the town nolynches repeatedly while the mafia frantically tries to nightkill the doc before the cop can get too many results.shaft.ed wrote:
We aren't worrying about sucky. Why is Cop + Doc + 7 Townies, vs. 3 mafia broken.Lord Gurgi wrote:IMHO, cop and doc versus mafia is broked or sucky.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Adding a mafia roleblocker would go a long way towards fixing the setup. Still not sure on the overall balance level, though.
I don't like prohibiting No Lynch; it feels like a band-aid for the fundamental problem that the town is more powerful at night than the mafia.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Part of our mandate is deciding what criteria we use for approving setups.mith wrote:After some discussion in Site Ideas, I am starting to implement some of the suggested changes in the way we choose Open Setups to be run. The first change is a split in the discussion thread. The (renamed) Open Setup Ideas and Discussion thread remains open for posting new setup ideas. This thread will continue discussion of these setups, with the goal of "certifying" certain setups which meet some number of basic criteria.
Among these criteria are:
The setup must be Open or Semi-Open.
The setup must qualify as "Normal".
For the most part, approved setups should be small (5-12 players).
Setups must retain the basic premise of Mafia; the outcome of the game should depend primarily (though not necessarily entirely) on whether or not the pro-town players can determine the identities of the Mafia through their posting and behaviour. "Broken" setups (setups where the town has a strategy which maximizes their chances of winning through "Following the Cop" or similar methods should not be considered. (Note: This item probably needs clarification.)
This list should not be considered complete or final in any way; rather, it is a starting point for discussion.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Let's see...Korts wrote:I'm leaning towards certifying trendy/subversive, although I seem to remember there were two versions of it when Thesp originally posted it. I'm going to dig it up if necessary, but the two versions looked like this:
V1
1 of Cop/Nurse
1 of Doc/Deputy
V2
1 of Cop/Doc
1 of Nurse/Deputy
The latter is better for town because they have a power role guaranteed.
Also,certify Bird C9
V1:
25% cop + backup cop
25% doc + backup doc
25% cop + doc
25% nothing
V2:
25% cop + backup cop
25% doc + backup doc
25% cop only
25% doc only
So, which is better: 50% cop+doc and 50% nothing, or 50% cop and 50% doc?
Though, V1 has a possible follow-the-cop strategy: backup cop claims if there is one. If there's no backup cop, there must be a doc, so the cop can safely claim. That's a point against it.
I don't have anything in particular against Bird, but it isnota "C9" setup: it's fully open rather than semi-open. It needs a rename at the very least.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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New mods can run setups from the Open Games list.
20-player games are not good games for new mods to run.
Therefore, 20-player games should not be on the Open Games list.
That doesn't mean 20-player open games are bad, just that they should go through one of the other lists.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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2 v 2 v N, with random lynches, 10000 trials, day start:
Code: Select all
--- 3 townies --- Town 1081, Mafia1 4253, Mafia2 4446, Draw 220 Average length 2.11, std dev 0.49 --- 4 townies --- Town 1050, Mafia1 3981, Mafia2 4002, Draw 967 Average length 2.59, std dev 0.50 --- 5 townies --- Town 1313, Mafia1 3811, Mafia2 3758, Draw 1118 Average length 2.86, std dev 0.48 --- 6 townies --- Town 1694, Mafia1 3995, Mafia2 4106, Draw 205 Average length 3.24, std dev 0.56 --- 7 townies --- Town 1708, Mafia1 3773, Mafia2 3859, Draw 660 Average length 3.65, std dev 0.51 --- 8 townies --- Town 2023, Mafia1 3614, Mafia2 3611, Draw 752 Average length 3.98, std dev 0.56 --- 9 townies --- Town 2159, Mafia1 3817, Mafia2 3865, Draw 159 Average length 4.34, std dev 0.59 --- 10 townies --- Town 2230, Mafia1 3612, Mafia2 3701, Draw 457 Average length 4.76, std dev 0.62 --- 11 townies --- Town 2391, Mafia1 3448, Mafia2 3635, Draw 526 Average length 5.08, std dev 0.65 --- 12 townies --- Town 2663, Mafia1 3660, Mafia2 3535, Draw 142 Average length 5.45, std dev 0.71 --- 13 townies --- Town 2756, Mafia1 3397, Mafia2 3451, Draw 396 Average length 5.83, std dev 0.72 --- 14 townies --- Town 2835, Mafia1 3356, Mafia2 3435, Draw 374 Average length 6.18, std dev 0.76 --- 15 townies --- Town 2943, Mafia1 3395, Mafia2 3527, Draw 135 Average length 6.56, std dev 0.81
Edit: Redone to correctly account for draws.
Edit2: Script was bugged, see next page.Last edited by Xylthixlm on Thu Mar 26, 2009 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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It might help if I make sure that double kills are handled correctly. One of these days I'm going to write a good simulator instead of the hackish Perl script I'm using
Code: Select all
--- 3 townies --- Town 1002, Mafia1 4335, Mafia2 4321, Draw 342 Average length 2.16, std dev 0.52 --- 4 townies --- Town 1178, Mafia1 3773, Mafia2 4024, Draw 1025 Average length 2.63, std dev 0.50 --- 5 townies --- Town 1448, Mafia1 3909, Mafia2 3844, Draw 799 Average length 2.90, std dev 0.50 --- 6 townies --- Town 1743, Mafia1 3932, Mafia2 3955, Draw 370 Average length 3.32, std dev 0.57 --- 7 townies --- Town 1849, Mafia1 3661, Mafia2 3867, Draw 623 Average length 3.70, std dev 0.53 --- 8 townies --- Town 2054, Mafia1 3617, Mafia2 3827, Draw 502 Average length 4.06, std dev 0.58 --- 9 townies --- Town 2268, Mafia1 3618, Mafia2 3825, Draw 289 Average length 4.43, std dev 0.61 --- 10 townies --- Town 2351, Mafia1 3539, Mafia2 3688, Draw 422 Average length 4.84, std dev 0.62 --- 11 townies --- Town 2542, Mafia1 3543, Mafia2 3577, Draw 338 Average length 5.17, std dev 0.66 --- 12 townies --- Town 2718, Mafia1 3500, Mafia2 3532, Draw 250 Average length 5.57, std dev 0.71 --- 13 townies --- Town 2772, Mafia1 3372, Mafia2 3485, Draw 371 Average length 5.92, std dev 0.73 --- 14 townies --- Town 2899, Mafia1 3422, Mafia2 3409, Draw 270 Average length 6.29, std dev 0.78 --- 15 townies --- Town 3112, Mafia1 3305, Mafia2 3393, Draw 190 Average length 6.67, std dev 0.82
#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
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One more time, this time with kingmaker endgames (1v1v1 or 2v2v1) counted in addition to wins/draws.
Code: Select all
--- 3 townies --- Town 1003, Mafia1 4307, Mafia2 4376, Draw 314 (Kingmaker 3798) Average length 2.15, std dev 0.52 --- 4 townies --- Town 1175, Mafia1 3843, Mafia2 3960, Draw 1022 (Kingmaker 3052) Average length 2.62, std dev 0.50 --- 5 townies --- Town 1358, Mafia1 3961, Mafia2 3909, Draw 772 (Kingmaker 3287) Average length 2.90, std dev 0.51 --- 6 townies --- Town 1706, Mafia1 3937, Mafia2 4014, Draw 343 (Kingmaker 2422) Average length 3.31, std dev 0.57 --- 7 townies --- Town 1874, Mafia1 3707, Mafia2 3814, Draw 605 (Kingmaker 2083) Average length 3.70, std dev 0.53 --- 8 townies --- Town 1991, Mafia1 3724, Mafia2 3767, Draw 518 (Kingmaker 2207) Average length 4.05, std dev 0.59 --- 9 townies --- Town 2224, Mafia1 3708, Mafia2 3786, Draw 282 (Kingmaker 1739) Average length 4.44, std dev 0.61 --- 10 townies --- Town 2391, Mafia1 3484, Mafia2 3663, Draw 462 (Kingmaker 1593) Average length 4.82, std dev 0.63 --- 11 townies --- Town 2458, Mafia1 3542, Mafia2 3627, Draw 373 (Kingmaker 1682) Average length 5.18, std dev 0.66 --- 12 townies --- Town 2737, Mafia1 3490, Mafia2 3531, Draw 242 (Kingmaker 1382) Average length 5.57, std dev 0.71 --- 13 townies --- Town 2821, Mafia1 3333, Mafia2 3513, Draw 333 (Kingmaker 1253) Average length 5.94, std dev 0.73 --- 14 townies --- Town 2993, Mafia1 3310, Mafia2 3450, Draw 247 (Kingmaker 1328) Average length 6.29, std dev 0.80 --- 15 townies --- Town 3113, Mafia1 3317, Mafia2 3385, Draw 185 (Kingmaker 1115) Average length 6.67, std dev 0.82
Now, actual play might avoid kingmaker endings - I don't know - but with random lynches/kills, they're actually more common than town wins for any setup under 9 players! Does that worry anyone else as much as it does me?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
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- Joined: July 12, 2006
The flaw in your plan is that you assume the scum will crosskill. Each scum knows they will lose anyways if there's a crosskill, so they may choose to shoot the townie and throw the game to the other scum. Not everyone takes the game-theoretical-optimal move if they think there's a 90% chance they'll lose anyways.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
-
Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
It looks like there are natural sweet spots for minimum draws and for minimum kingmaker situations, in a repeating pattern of 3. Unfortunately, they're offset. 2v2v9 is good for minimizing draws, and 2v2v10 is good for minimizing kingmaker situations.
I think I'd go with 2v2v10.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
-
Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
By the time it gets down to 1-1-1 it's usually pretty obvious who the townie is. If one of the scum can get away with fooling the other into thinking they're the townie, good for them. I've done that once or twice on IRC, but it's pretty hard.
The townie should just claim townie and no lynch, usually with a "fuck, you're both scum" in there for good measure.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
-
Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
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- Joined: July 12, 2006
I know this isn't in our list (except maybe as mountainous), but I'd like a certify ofmountainous 1:4- day start, obviously. The EV is the simple (4/5) * (2/3) = 8/15 for scum, 7/15 for town.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
-
Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
I tried running 1:4 mountainous for marathon day. It lasted three minutes.
I'm not sure if that's a minus or a plus.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
-
Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006