Shell Game (Night 4)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like i really have trouble believing this townread lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like i really have trouble believing this townread lol

Ok? Did you expect me to have a drawn out and ironclad reasoning to explain a solicited townlean?

i expect you to have strong reasons for defending someone at this point of the game yea

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How likely do you think each of these worlds is?

i dont even see the point of this question and I haven't thought about it at all

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How likely do you think each of these worlds is?

i dont even see the point of this question and I haven't thought about it at all

?

You were the one talking about the link and I’m literally asking you to consider it.

you asked me why I was linking the two of you instead of considering you scummy independently and I explained it already so I don't see the point of your question

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Except I’m not doing that?

uh you literally said sunflower is town when asked with p ? reasoning and you're pushing morph for their push on sunflower

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Luke I still think my cat is town but it's too late in the evening for me to properly read your post and then go back over the context to make sure I understand it but I promise you I will do it at some point when I have time.

Pooky did this ever happen?

not yet :3

srry im a procrastinator by nature

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yoink

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

VOTE: gypyx

which dann posts r you liking

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

The ones where he looks like he's trying

lol dann's a sweaty tryhard as both alignments

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Fwiw part of my approach is then proceeding to misread cabd in touhou also

~ skitter

fwiw i thought it was rlly funny when I found out you were Sanae because her facial expression is exactly what I think your facial expression is when you read my posting in that game :3

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

dannflor cooking with fire now

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Not really in my opinion

weak clapback shes caught scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

boo i guess morph is town for being so offended i said we haven’t pressured anyone

this feels so much like a salty scum read but I'm not going to pursue it because the KNICKS WON LETS GOOOOOOOOOOO

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

cocaine bumps for everyone lets go APD APD APD GO

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

VOTE: Gypyx

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i kinda thought oblivion was scummy but I'm very biased so I didnt say anything

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i will probly vote brian after a VC

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

VOTE: Brian

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

jupiter didnt even say hi to me

lockscum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

jupiter didnt even say hi to me

lockscum

OH HI POOKY I didn't know you were in this game!!!!! helloooo

-.-

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

ngl its weird af to me that cakez would actually townread me cuz the last time we were mafia together dude was all like "i can never trust you" but i dont really want to give him a hard time over it cuz im trying to be nicer to people +_+

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I kinda think Brian and Cakez might both be mafia and I'm p indifferent which one we flip tbh

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

im gonna drop a full readlist b4 day end to consolidate my thoughts pls no early end thx

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

im gonna drop a full readlist b4 day end so no early hammah plz

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

my phone ate my post like 8 times b4 it posted lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yoink

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

First off I’m going to start with the leading wagons of the day; Cakes/Brianskies and why I think they can both be mafia.

My homie Cakeboi;

Things I didn’t like: Cakes “disappearing” after I asked him how he knew the hermit hydra was a cabal member. The issue I had wasn’t so much that he took X minutes to reply etc which is always understandable – it’s that after he replied to it he kind of tried to just vibe with the thread for a bit without really trying to solve anything and then just dipped to “read” which feels like he was more interested in getting out of dodge than like actually getting reads.

His readslist feels questionable to me, I don’t really understand how he got to a townread on Penguin and I certainly don’t understand how he has me at top townread status when like he just told me last game we played together that he feels like he can never trust me-> link here: viewtopic.php?p=14028065#p14028065
And when he’s asked about it he doesn’t really give a good reason for townreading me. I feel like it doesn’t make sense for him to trust me this much if he’s uninformed of my alignment.

The last thing I didn’t like about Cakez and what led me to the teamread of Cakes/Brian is how Cakes responded to doubts about why he voted for Brian Skies – he essentially didn’t give any good reasons on why he wants Brian dead and that feels like how Cakes plays when he busses a teammate – he thinks its self-evident why said teammate is scummy and he doesn’t find a reason to justify the vote – whereas if cakes is scum and voting a townie he would come up with a reason so he doesn’t look as bad after the misflip.
Two other things I want to mention that I noticed in Cakes iso;

Now
VOTE: BRIAN SKIES

All of his posts sound like wet toilet paper being thrown at a wall. He's probably sad his teammates already decided to bus him.

^ this is Cakes vote on Brian

And this is the VC/Cakes Readlist at the time;

ACTUALLY TOWN READS - Lukewarm, Pooky, Dunnstral, Pengy
TOWN ISH...FOR NOW - Shello and Goodbye, Dannflor, Spiffeh, marcistar, Oblivion, Bingle
idk yet - StD, experience, Gypyx
A LITTLE SCUMMISH - Firebringer, CSF, Klick
SCUMMY BUT IM ALSO TILTED - Hermit Crab
SCUMMY AF - Morph the Cat, Firebagel, Sunflower, Brian Skies

pls keep in mind these are rough draft immediate fire thought reads based individually
ex; morph and sunflower are probably not scum together but I got scum vibes from them individually
I'm also ignoring the hoods for now

I find the whole "slip" argument against me to be incredibly dumb but I don't think there's anything even to argue there so I'm just gonna ignore it. I don't really think it's AI.

VC 1.11

Brian 7 (Spiffeh, morph, marci, Lukewarm, Dunnstral, Sunflower, Pooky)
SirCakez 6 (CSF, Firebagel, STD, Brian, Shello, Dannflor)
Gypyx 3 (Penguin, Hermit, Bingle)
Sunflower 1 (Klick)
Pooky 1 (SirCakez)
Spiffeh 1 (Gypyx)
Bingle 1 (Firebringer)

Not voting (Oblivion, experience)

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to combust.

Deadline: (expired on 2024-05-09 04:07:00)

Of the 7 players voting Bsky he has Pooky/Dunn/Luke as his top tier townreads, Morph/Sunflower as scumreads and spiff/marci as 2nd tier townreads.

So what he is saying about “all the scum team bussing bsky so he’s sad” is incongruent with his stated reads – it’s the kind of hyperbole you use when you bus a partner without really thinking it through whether this actually makes sense with what your reads actually are.

Lastly another thing I’ve noticed is;

Sigh

Crabz, do y'all have thoughts on this?

Same question to you, Luke.

other's thoughts also welcome.

I am of two minds when I look at his top 4 scum reads.

In my left brain, I don't think that scum-Cakez would feel super confident in dropping you guys in the bottom tier.

In my right brain, I think that landing on Brian being his strongest scum read is exactly who scum-Cakez needs to have as his strongest scum read.

Why are you looking at everything from the angle of would scum!Cakez do this? What about would town!Cakez do this? I feel like everyone in this game is good enough to see how scummy Brian's recent posting has been,

I almost feel like it would be egregious to not vote him given the wagon existing too.

i kinda feel like if you're scum you have to vote him now, no?

~ skitter

People keep saying this but why would I not vote him as town here either? He's one of my top scum reads and has the biggest wagon. I feel like it would be really dumb to try to start some other vanity wagon when people don't even generally listen to me in the first place, let alone when I'm the main CW.

^ this gives off huge caught for the wrong reasons vibes. It feels like he’s saying to skitter I would do this if I were town TOO!!! ~ as in he thinks this is how he plays if he’s town so its unfair for her to treat him this way etc.

Lastly I feel like his conversations with morph feel like he’s trying to placate them/get them off his back which doesn’t make sense if he’s scumreading them.

As for why I think Brian is also mafia it really comes down to three points;


(1) Disengagement with the game – Spiffeh’s 2838 lays out a very good case for why this is scum!brian – I haven’t played a lot of games with Brian but from what I remember of him in Tenet he was very engaged with the game. I think it makes sense for him to be disengaged if he’s resigned to being elimmed and the only viable other elimination[cakez] is a partner.
(2) I kind of refuse to believe town!brian can see cakes being so scummy[see my points against cakes above] and being opportunistic in pushing him with no real good reasoning and he doesn’t fight back against it and just rolls over? Like I kind of think town brian has no problem rising up and kicking Cakes butt back to the stone age.
(3) The way cakez treats Brian feels like he’s telling us this is going to be a scumflip [yes I know preflips are bad and its dumb to build one scumcase off another when you don’t have any flips but this is just how I play so deal with it]


So that's p much why I am fine with flipping either Cakes or Brian atp.

Gonna write up the rest of my readlist on everyone else now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

do you think as wolf he just like... forgot about that dynamic entirely? instead of leaning harder into it/the paranoia which i feel might come across as a townier emotion to ppl

it wouldnt be the first time sir cakez got caught D1 cuz he forgot to be paranoid of someone rofl

i think lilith? caught him off this tell earlier too when we played that C13_++ game?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Top Five Townreads [96.5% accuracy, take it to the bank]

Spoiler: Morph the Cat

I thought about your case on them Luke and I think the key thing you’re missing is this is kind of outdated meta on how you think they will behave. For me, what made me feel my cat is town is how Cabd emotionally reacted to me talking shit about him waxing poetic about his fancy wine club with Hermit Crab dude. I think he got very upset over it and lashed out and called me anti-town etc and ffery had to tell him to take a thread break while she negotiated a peace treaty with me and tried to figure out where I was coming from -> I don’t think he has that kind of emotional reaction to getting dunked on if he wasn’t genuinely believing that he was solving the game with his friend and I just took a fat dump on his fun. I think if he’s mafia trying to manipulate game state he has a very different reaction which is more defensive rather than offended.

Spoiler: Spiffeh

Mouseboi is town and believes in himself- I think Spiffs just has this lack of confidence in being here when he’s mafia because he thinks he’s easily readable and he fears the spotlight. Even in that anon touhou game we just played I think Eternity Larva[Spiffs] was like very limited in how he engaged with the thread. Here he is a blazing ball of shiny light and gives 0 fucks which feels rlly townie to me. I’m not going to go through all of his posts cuz im a lazy bum but I mindmelded with his scumread of Bsky and I think its very much how he would approach pushing Bsky as town

Spoiler: Lukewarm

I should probably never place him in this tier but like I kinda feel this is my dude Luke who is kinda lazy and having a good time etc. I don’t have any key points to really point to because he’s a really good scum player who could probably do everything he did here as scum. This might just be a straight up vibe read. Maybe I should take the tIme to actually read everything he wrote but I’m kind of lazy ngl. Gth if I had to say one reason it’d be because he actually bugged me to follow up about morph. Yea that’s a p bad reason tbh – good job if you’re mafia luke

Spoiler: Hermit Crab

I liked how one of the heads randomly popped in to stand up for me when I was getting dunked on by the thread, I feel like the opinions change in a way that makes sense to me. I don’t remember which opinions or how they changed – I just vaguely remember nodding along at some point. Knowing one of the heads is Notty is kinda helpful. Maybe I should have more respect for their scum game but like overall this just feels solidly town to me

Spoiler: Shello

I liked how Ydrasse engaged with Firebagel on not really pushing anything or having opinions, felt very mindmeldy like she posted every question I would’ve wanted to post. Skitter feels really carefree in how she engages with thread – the engagement with cakes doesn’t feel like S/S. Don’t feel like they’re very agenda’d at all

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Next Tier Townleans[Accuracy Not Guranteed]

Spoiler: CSF

I’m not gonna lie I don’t remember a single thing she posted except she said she was a miller at some point. I do know she has rep as a super polarized player and some people have said she’s town that I am not going to bother to read her. Yea I’m kind of lazy sorry.

Spoiler: STD

I feel like STD doesn’t care how he’s read and just floating out on an island somewhere puffing a pipe and shooting flames at the sky. It’s a very chill vibe that I think makes sense if he’s town and he could care less what’s going on

Spoiler: Marci

I think she’s town because she’s comfortable being a bad bitch

Spoiler: Experience

I believed what actionDan said about believing CSF couldn’t be a miller because of his role; experience hasn’t really posted from what I remember

Spoiler: Dunnstral

Feel like all of his contributions are p townie – haven’t really thought that hard about this read because I am very bad at reading Dunnstral, he doesn’t have many deviations between his scum/town game. Gth I’d say town

Spoiler: Firebringer

he’s not as townie as I remember him being, I don’t think he’s posted a hero solve yet, I have him on the town side of the ledger anyway because I’m biased and he hasn’t done anything that’s too scummy yet ig

Spoiler: Dannflor

I’ve been back and forth on this read a lot and ultimately I’m gonna put him on the town side of the ledger because I think if cakes/bsky are both scum then dann is probly town because dann!scum is more thread dominant when his team is not doing good and does a decent job of coaching his team into a better spot – throw this read out the window if cakes/bsky are like town lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Null Section [Not Enough Data]

Spoiler: PenguinPowa

I don’t think he’s posted enough for me to have a good read on him which kind of sucks but it is what it is, I originally had him on the town side of the ledger but I didn’t like how he interacted with Cakes post catchup.

Spoiler: Klick

I need more posting from Klick, I’m not sure what he’s doing atp it feels like he’s not really trying very hard and that could be real life related or he’s just mafia, we’ll see as the game goes on and he has more time to post

Spoiler: Firebagel

my brain hasn’t really retained much of what she’s posted, on a re-read she might belong on the townier side of null.

Scummy[It is what it is]

Spoiler: Gypyx

I don’t think she’s trying to solve the game, she’s a lot more self-oriented than I remember her being in Touhou[she was kagerou]. She feels like she doesn’t want to be here. The way Cakez said “lmao don’t listen to Gypyx] felt like scum to scum interaction. Like when Cakez caught up Gypyx said “why did you catch up” and “attack me anytime” which were jokes directed at Cakez, I feel like there’s a level of comfort here that makes sense if they’re mafia together.

Spoiler: Oblivion

I don’t really think it really believed what it said about me being manipulative because the incidents it picked out felt very innocuous to me – I felt like it was more interested in justifying its position rather than figuring out whether I was mafia or not.

When things got emotionally heated I don’t really try to read into emotions but there was one part that felt like it slipped a bit->

But it will say that even your response here was like a Snake snapping its jaws at a threat.

there is no universe where I would see you as a threat

Man you are unpleasant, huh?

In the first post Oblivion is saying that I am a snake snapping at a threat – painting the image that I am perhaps Mafia who feels threatened and feels the need to immediately respond with vitriol and menace towards it. My immediate response is that I would never feel threatened by It – essentially claiming that its scenario was implausible because I would simply never feel threatened by it. It’s a comment that basically says its imagined scenario is impossible because I simply don’t fear it at all. The response in the moment was that It thought I was being unpleasant – which makes sense if it reads my comment as an insult where I’m belittling it and saying it’s not worth my time to even bother seeing it as a threat.

The issue here is that if it thinks I’m a conman/swindler/manipulator then if I was lying scum who felt threatened by it, then I would obviously just downplay the threat to me because that’s how you deal with such accusations – you downplay how much of a threat there actually is. But its response in the moment was not to continue along the lines of suspecting I am lying about its threat to me – its response was to

feel hurt

that I was belittling it – as in it KNEW that I really do not think it is a threat at all – which implies it knows I’m telling the truth – this is an informed mindset. An uninformed mindset that thinks I’m lying scum would simply think this response is just another manipulation. The break in mindset makes sense if it knows I’m town, it doesn’t really make sense if it thinks I’m mafia.

I haven't really read much of its other posting and I recognize this can be a very biased read. I guess I liked what Dannflor said about Oblivion feeling surface level and not really interested in doing actual protown things? I think what oblivion said about "maybe people shouldn't be trying to grab page tops becuz it contributes to thread bloat" is like such a ??? thing to complain about when you're not actually doing anything with pushing a solve or a suspect atp

Spoiler: Sunflower

The main reason I kind of scumread Sunflower is because the last game I played with Jupiter I caught him as scum and from what he said about me in the scum PT I think he’s kind of scared of me. So him not being here at all makes sense if he doesn’t want to mess things up for fireisred and he is deathly worried I will catch him. When he finally enters thread and I say hi to him and act offended he didn’t say hi to me he says he didn’t even know I was playing – which I don’t really believe tbh. I also don’t think at any point fireisredsir is playing to his potential in terms of how good he is as a solver/townplayer – he feels kind of muted/not here. Maybe both of them just have RL issues or whatever Idk

Spoiler: Bingle

I didn’t get good vibes from interacting with him, he felt like he was more interested in random things than actually sorting me or explaining his reads to me. Of the scumleans this is probably my lowest confidence one cuz I think this game isn’t that similar to other bingle scumgames he’s played I usually like townread him when he’s scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky what do u think abt bingle's defense of cakez, i'm having a hard time parsing it

~ skitter

uh i never read bingles defense of cakez tbh

gotta run do some other things ill probly read it later tonight if i dont fall asleep

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I personally dont like ur list cuz i d9nt overly tr anyone u put under my pool but ill follow it if everyone else agrees

i think the best way to do the inventions is for you guys in the hood to discuss your townreads and split up your townreads so each of you have like 3 unique townreads/leans you can distribute the cop invention to

also reminder not to send anything to me im ascetic

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i think the one hangup i have with voting cakez is that i remember he also looks super scummy when hes town too whereas brian feels like more of a slam dunk here and i'd feel bad if we dunked town!cakez here >.>

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Townreads: Morph, Spiff, Lukewarm, Hermit Crab, Shello
Townleans: CSF, STD, Marci, Experience, Dunn, Firebringer, Dannflor
Null: Pengy, Klick, Firebagel
Scumleans: Oblivion, Bingle, Sunflower
Scumreads: Gypyx, Brian Skies, Cakez

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky what do u think abt bingle's defense of cakez, i'm having a hard time parsing it

~ skitter

uh i never read bingles defense of cakez tbh

gotta run do some other things ill probly read it later tonight if i dont fall asleep

kk can you try later plz?

i'm having a hard time understanding it / figuring out how to read bingle off of it, and i think it's probably the most AI thing bingle has done

~ skitter

having reread bingle's cake progression and thought it over I think it makes more sense as bingle wking cakez than anything else tbh which is not good for my cakez read rofl

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

im also like p terrible track record at reading bingle btw

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

This feels like busywork from fire

~ skitter

I feel like fire really believes in everything he does and I kinda feel like he's just town who is frustrated with game state more than anything else

i dont think scum fire really gets frustrated with game state

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I would also like the Bingle case

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i also want to know which game of town!brian this reminds firebringer of

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

considering u won eminence in shadow though. Maybe I should rid myself of that guilt and be okay with possibility of mislimming u though.

I will have to consult my morale compass - pooky

if you really want to yeet bingle then make the case and im like 85% willing to sheep you

skitter also said she thinks bingle is WKing cakez and being strange so maybe u can get her vote too

i alrdy kinda SR bingle and a lot of what he does here doesnt make sense to me