Shell Game (Night 4)

[Brian Skies]

Hello friends!

[Brian Skies]

Hi Spiffeh!

[Brian Skies]

I'd go for the Pooky Bucks, but for all I know, the imaginary points could be based on an arbitrarily based system that benefits the house.

[Brian Skies]

I've got townleans of various degrees on Firebagel, Pooky, Sunflower, Dunn, and Spiffeh.

I've got scumleans of various degrees on Shello, STD, Dan, and Morph.

Then we've also got confirmed scum Firepup.

[Brian Skies]

I like Sunflower's entrance vote and early game banter. It feels natural to me.

I also liked the big post that you don't. I had some agreement with some of the reads.

But I can see why you have issue with it.

[Brian Skies]

I may have skipped some of Pooky v Oblivion, but otherwise have caught up.

\o/

[Brian Skies]

I may have skipped some of Pooky v Oblivion, but otherwise have caught up.

\o/

Thoughts?

I suppose I'll start with Dethy hood since that is the popular topic so far.

If there were a consensus scumread out of that hood, then I'd be amenable to the idea of eliminating there. However, only some of the players (Marci, Klick, Sunflower) from that hood are really giving much outside of their hood for the rest of us to generate a read on them. STD and Dan haven't really given much. Granted, it's still early and this can change.

Of the five in the hood, I'd probably only have Marci outside my would-lynch pile. And I've generally felt Sunflower and Klick to be slightly more towny than STD and Dan. But this is just based on what I can see in thread and not 'he-said-she-said' from the neighborhood.

I don't think it would be a bad thing to eliminate outside of the Dethy hood if there isn't a consensus elimination. If it's the Dethy I'm thinking of, then eliminating potential cops in the hood without getting at least a result from them would make deciphering sanities more difficult later. And it would force the scumteam to focus down that hood for us.

I disagree with Dan and think a miller fits with a Dethy neighborhood. Unless he just thinks it doesn't fit the overall theme. And I've generally liked CSF's play today.

[Brian Skies]

I'm going to be honest, I spent most of today just trying to catch up that I don't remember a lot that's happened outside of the Dethy hood. From what I do remember:

The other hood hasn't claimed anything of note mechanically. Looking back, that hood is [Spiffeh, Dunn, Crab, Bingle, Cakez, Firepup]. I think Spiffeh, Dunn, and Crab are town. Two of these players haven't even posted yet. Firepup seems busy/sick.

Outside of the hood, I have liked Shellos and Luke. I'm not a fan of Oblivion, but I think that has more to do with Pooky vs. Oblivion than anything else gameplay-related.

[Brian Skies]

Pooky is pretty null for me. He's mostly been pretty jokey and hasn't done anything that I would consider townish that I can remember.

[Brian Skies]

Pooky is pretty null for me. He's mostly been pretty jokey and hasn't done anything that I would consider townish that I can remember.

Could you expand on your Spiffeh townread?

I liked his early case against Sunflower even though I do not agree with it. I also like 390 where he questions other players writing him off. I also like that he's focusing more of his energy on the main thread than his neighborhood, as I feel scum are more likely to avoid the main thread. I also like that Spiffeh suspected me earlier as I feel like I live rent free in his head in the games I play with him.

[Brian Skies]

Is there anything noteworthy in the neighborhood that doesn't have to do with neighborhood mechanics or roles?

[Brian Skies]

i think during pooky x oblivion. oblivion looks like REALLY bad. it sort of looks like its egging pooky on. While i really love the 1119 pop in from firebrigner, it seems so jokey and i feel like scums more likely to sit back while that spat was happening. i think overall that spat just screams that pookys town though, because of the reactions, and not really like actually placing blame, just trying to explain why what it did was wrong. it would've been really easy for scum pooky to just call oblivion scum and push that.

Brian skies 1201 if it does help within the hood i have the most posts then - sunflower - klick - dragon - actiondan
i think the post counts in the hood may make me a bit biased, but your reads here in that post pretty much align with mine. I think by far klick/sunflowers is more towny than the other 2.
I'm also curious how well you know catscratch..? Like what do you like about them, i know other people are used to their playstyle but i have no clue how much experience you have with them.

I agree that Oblivion looked as though they were egging Pooky on. I feel players of either alignment would get upset if they were being called manipulative and a snake they way Oblivion was doing it, but I can see why you would want to townread Pooky here. At the very least, I agree that Oblivion looks very bad from the exchange.

I do not think relative activity in a neighborhood is a good barometer of towniness/scumminess.

I don't know CSF. I liked their push against Oblivion early on, I agreed with some of their reads, and their posts feel like they're trying to figure things out. They also don't seem to just be relying on their miller claim.

[Brian Skies]

i don't even think 2 wolves in the dethy is out of the question

i really think it makes sense for people to be swapping around neighborhoods this game so i think the starting number of scum in any neighborhood probably can't be accurately guessed but im not mech brained!!

Do you think people can be swapped into both hoods, or just one? Because the second one seems themed around inventors and I think it would be strange if players can be swapped in and out of that one.

[Brian Skies]

I'm going to refresh tonight. I had a really stressful time last night and this morning, and some of that was due to this game, but most of that was external and me projecting that into this.

I'm finding the push on myself overwhelming. I don't particularly like or enjoy playing to expectation. I also dislike the infrequent-but-significant wagon that grows on me early D1 simply for playing the way I play amongst certain groups of players.

If you have a question that you like, really really care about getting answered, ping me and I'll give it some attention before I refresh. But what I'd like to do tonight after the kids are asleep is go through and get a clearer perspective on the game.

I think I'm quite happy with the actual reads I've developed so far, but I'm going to make an effort to be more transparent as to the reasoning behind most of my reads. Some might change with reflection. My concern is that a number of people are going to poke and prod and otherwise invalidate my attempts at showing my work, not due to its actual content or potential accuracy, but simply due to disagreements in process. I'm not interested in getting into lengthy debates about the accuracy of my opinions or process, unless the goal is genuinely to come to a shared understanding on someone's alignment.


With that out of the way, see you all in like 3ish hours maybe

^ that is a Town post

Why is this a town post?

[Brian Skies]

Except when you aren't.

[Brian Skies]

Name one time i lied about being scum.

Pretty much every game I've played with you.

[Brian Skies]

So now you're even dressing the part.

[Brian Skies]

For some reason I thought Morph was townreading Dan. I guess I was wrong.

[Brian Skies]

Dan, Oblivion, maybe Dann, maybe Penguin, maybe STD

I'm probably not the best person to sheep as I don't feel particularly strongly about any of the above.

[Brian Skies]

Maria is in this game?

[Brian Skies]

Brian I always wanted to ask you this but is that an egg on your head

I do not know.

[Brian Skies]

For some reason I thought Morph was townreading Dan. I guess I was wrong.

I think he's town, but not enough to put him above that line. Yet, anyway. Reports from the hood that I can't see for myself are not easy to weigh here.

Is that line not the null line?

[Brian Skies]

Dan, Oblivion, maybe Dann, maybe Penguin, maybe STD

I'm probably not the best person to sheep as I don't feel particularly strongly about any of the above.

Brian sell me with what you have on this please?

I remember not liking Dan's early vote on Firebagel in 86. It's one of those posts where the short reads list feels completely unnecessary. Like he felt he needed to include something there and just includes an extra townread. His activity here compared to his activity in his neighborhood was also a slight concern. And of the inventors, he just seems the least towny to me.

Oblivion is mostly from the Pooky vs Oblivion debate. And before Pooky spoke up, Oblivion was calling Pooky a snake. I know Pooky and Oblivion worked it out and what not, but it still rubbed me the wrong way.

I just got out of a game with Dannflor where he replaced in, and I was kind of expecting more from his catchup here as a result. Granted, he replaced into a slot that was on the verge of elimination, so that may be a factor. I also wonder if his talk about players swapping hoods is just filler talk.

I just grabbed Penguin's name out of the list as someone who I expected more of a presence from. He's pretty up in the air.

STD is similar to Dan in that he hasn't had a huge main thread presence. As far as the main thread goes, I find him less towny than Marci, Klick, and Sunflower.

[Brian Skies]

Guys i have to come clean, I am mafia. I can't hide it anymore.

We know. But we have to take out the underlings before we can take out the boss.

[Brian Skies]

Bingle how much of the game have you read?

The part I found unbelievable is that you don't know who is in the neighborhood

Page 1-5, page when I first posted to here, my role pm. I will admit that I opened the neighborhood and saw fire and crab, but I don’t know much more than that, nor do I particularly care atm.

This feels town.

[Brian Skies]

Warm pup might also be scum, btw.

VOTE MEEEEEEEE

I lose my ability to rearrange hoods if I vote, which will make my wincon of making the alignments of living players in the hoods match really hard to achieve.

Wait, hold on, this is actually a thing?

[Brian Skies]

Has Oblivion's recent posting done anything to shift that read? What do you think of Oblivion's interactions with myself and morph?

Why do you find Klick towny? I don't think I have seen you comment much on Klick, aside from questioning Spiffeh calling one of Klick's post townie?

I don't remember everything I read (or skim) so you may need to be more specific wrt Oblivion. I'm assuming you think they're town. So like, what specifically do you want me to look at?

Aside from his ambiguity, Klick has been fairly transparent with his standing with players and his votes throughout this game. And he provided his thoughts in 967 when asked. Granted, there could be more substance to his reads, but for a while, it was a lot more than what was being given by other players in his hood.

[Brian Skies]

The interaction with me began around 990, with the morph interaction beginning around 1026. I also like the read retraction on marci in the sequence of posts beginning in 1059 also felt town to me.

Oblivion's Dethy speculation is similar to where I'm at in that I feel as though it's probably best to table the Dethy hood for a day unless we feel really good about an elimination there.

I do like how Oblivion segued from the Dethy spec into discussing reads. I feel as though scum love to discuss setup spec, and Oblivion didn't just let the conversation linger there. They took initiative and moved the topic elsewhere. I agree the retraction on Marci feels town as I feel scum are less likely to just change their reads like that.

[Brian Skies]

VOTE: STD

[Brian Skies]

The interaction with me began around 990, with the morph interaction beginning around 1026. I also like the read retraction on marci in the sequence of posts beginning in 1059 also felt town to me.

Oblivion's Dethy speculation is similar to where I'm at in that

I feel as though it's probably best to table the Dethy hood for a day unless we feel really good about an elimination there.

VOTE: STD

?

What makes you feel "really good" about dragons then?

I dont track between these posts.. am i just slow?

I just voted STD because he was the person in my 'would-vote' pile that had the most votes.

I still think it's fine to vote and pressure in the hood.

[Brian Skies]

I'm so disappointed notty didn't choose me to hydra with.

[Brian Skies]

I want to see where this goes.

VOTE: Firebringer

[Brian Skies]

I was solicited for this and actually did want to include you but you had already joined

I secretly wanted to hydra for this game.

There's always next time though.

[Brian Skies]

Is there anything worth reading in your hood? Bingle didn't seem to think so.

[Brian Skies]

im bored of the game thread as of late, esp of brian

Why am I the subject of your ire?

What do you want to do today wrt your hood?

[Brian Skies]

I also think it was suspect that Brian Skies didn't react to the cakez thing at all. I think he might've been the only player around the time to post but not comment on it, but instead voted firebringer.

The whole thing about timestamps and whatnot has never been something that's been in my repertoire, so I don't know why anyone would be expecting a reaction from me.

As far as I'm concerned, we're lucky to get any Cakez at all considering he should still be on V/LA.

[Brian Skies]

VOTE: Cakez

[Brian Skies]

I also think it was suspect that Brian Skies didn't react to the cakez thing at all. I think he might've been the only player around the time to post but not comment on it, but instead voted firebringer.

The whole thing about timestamps and whatnot has never been something that's been in my repertoire, so I don't know why anyone would be expecting a reaction from me.

As far as I'm concerned, we're lucky to get any Cakez at all considering he should still be on V/LA.

VOTE: Cakez

What gives?

?

[Brian Skies]

He has the biggest wagon.

[Brian Skies]

The closest thing we've had to a major wagon before this was Firebringer, and Firebringer was instigating it.

[Brian Skies]

He has the biggest wagon.

The reason I included the first quote was because it seemed like the reasons people were scumreading Cakez at the time you made that post didn't impress you.

Do you scumread him? if so, why?

No, I don't scumread him.

[Brian Skies]

I retract my statement that I want to look outside out my hood today.

Well. I still do, but I would vote marci in a heartbeat

New developments in your neighborhood?

[Brian Skies]

Brian Skies talked about the hood for a bit but never voted.

This is untrue. I voted for STD.

[Brian Skies]

I would be totally fine nuking Cakez

What makes you feel so strongly about this?

[Brian Skies]

random thing but

I feel like I probably shouldn't be town reading oblivion

Why not?

[Brian Skies]

Spoiler:

VC 1.1

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to banish.

VC 1.2

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to return to sender.

VC 1.3

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to exile.

VC 1.4

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to yeet.

VC 1.5

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to eliminate.

VC 1.6

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to remove.

VC 1.7

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to fire a player into the sun.

VC 1.8

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to burn at the stake.

VC 1.9

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to obliterate.

VC 1.10

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to grind into a fine paste.

Has anyone else been noticing this?

[Brian Skies]

I wanna be fired into the sun.

[Brian Skies]

The fact that's a pagetop with no context makes me lol.

[Brian Skies]

Brian, do you have thoughts about the composition/timing/whatever of your wagon?

Spiffeh has been scumreading me all game. And others have indicated low reads on me so the wagon doesn't really come as a surprise, especially considering this is the third game in a row I've been run up on Day 1.

brian wagon: [spiffeh, morph, marci, lukewarm, dunnstral, sunflower, pooky, cakez, penguin, csf]

I'd say the first six on my wagon are probably town.

Pooky is a bit of an enigma here, and I think he could be potential scum on the wagon.

Cakez I'd probably expect to vote me regardless of his alignment. I do think scum-Cakez sees me as a counterwagon and thinks I'm an easy vote.

Penguin is a bit up in the air for me. Could go either way.

I still think CSF is town.

I definitely do not think my wagon is an all-town wagon.

[Brian Skies]

I've generally liked their posts and they feel town to me. I know others are concerned about the lack of the Jupiter head, but I think that's a silly reason to discount the effort already put in by the head that is actually playing.

[Brian Skies]

I still think it's either STD or experience.

[Brian Skies]

I never said the firebringer wagon didn't have legitimate reasons behind it. I just said he instigated it, which he did. Unless you're saying he didn't?

[Brian Skies]

Why do you think people are scumreading Sunflower?

[Brian Skies]

I have Cakez as prob-scum, if that answers your question.

[Brian Skies]

Who? Cakez? He's already on my wagon.

[Brian Skies]

Why are you not on my wagon?

[Brian Skies]

Because I have homework I want to do before the day ends

If it’s any consolation, Herr said he wouldn’t mind you dying!

I feel touched.

[Brian Skies]

I forgot all about that Tenet game.