Guns & Roses VI [Game Over]

Theta Alpine · Post Post #19 (isolation #0) » Sun Oct 22, 2023 9:06 am

rose as scum is a safe pick to prevent a town gun from shooting you
it also subverts the rose count somewhat but

hmm let me do some thinking

Theta Alpine · Post Post #22 (isolation #1) » Sun Oct 22, 2023 10:17 am

probably

worst case scenario there are only 7 town roses and that lasts us to about day 2 or 3 if every scum kill and elim is a town rose
which i do not really see happening so

Theta Alpine · Post Post #25 (isolation #2) » Sun Oct 22, 2023 10:47 am

any town who claims gun is a guaranteed non-bulletproof for scum to be able to kill

Theta Alpine · Post Post #29 (isolation #3) » Sun Oct 22, 2023 11:33 am

i do not think there are any advantages to doing so

maybe

i mean i could see some but
without trackers or anything like that there is no way to prove someone could visit if we have less then four people claim gun

Theta Alpine · Post Post #33 (isolation #4) » Sun Oct 22, 2023 11:42 am

i

this is a one track railway to wifom now that you have said that

Theta Alpine · Post Post #53 (isolation #5) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:29 am

flashbacks to veiled committee list mods edition occuring now

Theta Alpine · Post Post #56 (isolation #6) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:31 am

which for explanation
had 144 pages over a month in its day 1

i mean there were reasons that happened but anyways
yeah i have no idea what to do right now either

welcome to the site though

Theta Alpine · Post Post #62 (isolation #7) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:36 am

yeah that is the exception not the rule though
it almost broke the record for most posts day 1 on this site i think but most games are uh

well at the very least going to be spread out across more days

Theta Alpine · Post Post #66 (isolation #8) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:43 am

seriously alisae i have gone to sleep and waken up again since you started that binge get some rest

Theta Alpine · Post Post #104 (isolation #9) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 5:53 am

if all roses claim then any remaining guns can be determined

Theta Alpine · Post Post #120 (isolation #10) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 8:44 am

i can see why they would
just uh

with all the town roses it is more safe to play around with it

if we had like four roses in total then we might have to worry about if all three scum picked rose

Theta Alpine · Post Post #126 (isolation #11) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 8:57 am

no actually
while it is a win condition
mafia do not have to kill all the roses to win
they still have their traditional win condition

Theta Alpine · Post Post #129 (isolation #12) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 9:02 am

i mean yeah fair

Theta Alpine · Post Post #130 (isolation #13) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 9:04 am

enchant i normally read as scum and i do not think i have any accuracy in such so

Theta Alpine · Post Post #134 (isolation #14) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 9:09 am

it gives town less certainty about strategy choice based on number of roses

or it would if we did not have ten roses

Theta Alpine · Post Post #139 (isolation #15) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 9:35 am

scum want to pick the opposite of what town mostly picks

Theta Alpine · Post Post #140 (isolation #16) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 9:41 am

if town mostly picks roses then scum want to pick guns so they compensate for blocked night kills
and scum would go for the traditional win con most likely

if town mostly picks guns then scum wants to pick roses to protect themselves from night kills while they try to figure out and kill the few town roses

Theta Alpine · Post Post #143 (isolation #17) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 9:50 am

i would like to think i am somewhat decent at setup spec when i do not overthink things
well to an extent even when i do overthink things but

Theta Alpine · Post Post #145 (isolation #18) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 10:01 am

to be fair

scums picking strategy is likely just
very dependent on if town has players that are uh
known to be very good as vigs

Theta Alpine · Post Post #147 (isolation #19) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 10:05 am

we also have several people who suggested that town should not claim guns yet because that flags them for being not potentially protected

Theta Alpine · Post Post #151 (isolation #20) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 10:16 am

mass claiming is in fact a bad idea still

Theta Alpine · Post Post #152 (isolation #21) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 10:17 am

it is more beneficial to scum then town at this stage of the game

Theta Alpine · Post Post #164 (isolation #22) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 10:42 am

In post 162, Aristeia wrote:
In post 147, Theta Alpine wrote: we also have several people who suggested that town should not claim guns yet because that flags them for being not potentially protected
the mafia know how many guns they have and conversely how many town roses there are.

yesss i fail to see why that means we should claim though

while it is something they have information about that we do not

we also do not have any way of figuring it out with a claim

Theta Alpine · Post Post #177 (isolation #23) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:14 am

this is normal for enchant of either alignment to be honest

Theta Alpine · Post Post #212 (isolation #24) » Mon Oct 23, 2023 4:48 pm

In post 210, WhemeStar wrote:
In post 202, Alisae wrote: i think you are mafia w/ enchant
You said I am Ic

see uh
right after alisae said that i pointed out the problem with saying that
which is

In post 33, Theta Alpine wrote: i

this is a one track railway to wifom now that you have said that

Theta Alpine · Post Post #260 (isolation #25) » Tue Oct 24, 2023 1:17 pm

well wheme at least has probably earned themselves a night 1 mafia kill

so we should probably just let that happen

enchant i am
not sure about

but also this discussion about things is another reason for mafia to potentially pick roses

Theta Alpine · Post Post #293 (isolation #26) » Tue Oct 24, 2023 7:52 pm

In post 289, Alisae wrote:
In post 193, Celebloki wrote: Well, I personally am still not sold that all scum chose guns, I think it's feasible that at least one chose rose. Even the PT Enchant posted earlier shows that scum chose a rose in a previous iteration of this. I also don't think we should base elims off gun claims. I'm of the opinion to let the gun claims shoot each other at Night and we do some good ol' fashioned scum hunting for D1. Neither Enchant nor Wheze claimed what nigh their gun is, but I guess the assumption is N1, if either are still alive tomorrow then that's a better time to scrutinize them.
Everyone who has a gun has to die at some point in the game. That just makes sense.

in this game perhaps

in a version of this game where there were more guns then roses then maybe but not necessarily

unfortunately there is a very easy strategy for scum to use to prevent us from making any use of strategies regarding rose/gun choice
which is to just
not claim gun
or the minority chosen option for the more general case of this setup

Theta Alpine · Post Post #367 (isolation #27) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 6:59 am

again

town has every reason to lie about their claim in this setup

scum cannot trust anything town says
town cannot trust anything scum says

a mass claim puts scum into the advantage in this setup if town follow it truthfully

Theta Alpine · Post Post #369 (isolation #28) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:04 am

congratulations welcome to the concept that this setup is kind of interesting from a game theory standpoint

Theta Alpine · Post Post #371 (isolation #29) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:12 am

there are a few problems with that

for one
a truthful massclaim by town cannot give us the information for how many town roses there are while at the same time telling scum a viable strategy for who to shoot in the short term

for another it becomes much less possible to bait scum out once a mass claim happens and that action is something this setup encourages

a mass claim is good to lockdown things but this setup has exactly two states

either you are a rose or a gun
if you are a rose who will be active in a following night you want scum to think you will not be and shoot you
the best way to accomplish this is to make them think you are a gun for a following night

conversely if you are a gun for a night later then the following night you want scum to think you are a rose for the following night

Theta Alpine · Post Post #372 (isolation #30) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:16 am

from a game theory point there are currently four states a town person can be in based on whether they are rose/gun and whether their night is night one or later

in none of these states is the town persons optimal strategy to tell the truth

Theta Alpine · Post Post #374 (isolation #31) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:18 am

In post 373, Aristeia wrote: no

if all town claim truthfully and there is only one gun claim it tells us exactly how many town roses there are.

this helps town not at all

Theta Alpine · Post Post #378 (isolation #32) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:21 am

this is a point of information that town does not need to have because any optimal strategies town has

function better

when it is unknown and not cared about

at least not in this outcome of the setup when there is a clear majority of roses

Theta Alpine · Post Post #379 (isolation #33) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:29 am

the reason why we do not want to mass claim is because town want to lie in this setup and mass claiming inhibits this

here let me break it down for town for each of the four states you could potentially be in

if you are a town gun with night 1 you do not care about your current night and just want to not get elimd
you want to not claim though for the optimal strategy in future days
if you are a town gun with night 2+ you want to not get shot so you want people to think you are rose
if you are a town rose with night 1 you want to get shot so you want people to think you are gun
if you are a town rose with night 2+ it is much like gun with night 1 where you just want to hang low and not get elimd until you are active

Theta Alpine · Post Post #383 (isolation #34) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:35 am

but of course then we get to wifom so it is not particularly bad if you truthfully claim or not to some extent

as long as ambiguity exists
a mass claim removes this ambiguity somewhat
it removes the possibility for town to lie

like sure scum have a piece of information that town does not have
but in the process of

attempting

to get that piece of information then scum get information that in this outcome of the setup is worth much more

Theta Alpine · Post Post #385 (isolation #35) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:37 am

here is the thing

scum can just
truthfully claim their gun/rose status and then we do not even get the information of how many town roses there are

Theta Alpine · Post Post #388 (isolation #36) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:40 am

In post 386, Aristeia wrote: you think the scum would claim three guns if they r three guns

no

but this is the only case where they just straight up have to lie

scum did not have to pick three guns
they have reasons to pick rose

and if one or two or three of them did pick rose then they can just claim accurately and be relatively to perfectly fine for this setup
to even getting a huge advantage if all picked rose and we do the silly by eliminating all the gun claims

Theta Alpine · Post Post #392 (isolation #37) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:49 am

well here is the thing

scum can just flip a coin for rose/gun because both benefit them about the same when you introduce social dynamics into the mix

sure they miss out on extra firepower but town guns can make up for that somewhat

and if all of them picked rose then the strategy you are pursuing becomes one they want to do even more

Theta Alpine · Post Post #393 (isolation #38) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:52 am

you are operating under the assumption that all three mafia picked gun

and while this seems to be the most appealing strategy for scum at first glance
it is very definitely not always the case

scum did not know when picking that there would be this many roses selected by town

scum did not know what their optimal strategy would be and very possibly may not have all picked gun

Theta Alpine · Post Post #395 (isolation #39) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:59 am

for example if i was scum in this setup i would have picked rose practically guaranteed
that is not what happened but

Theta Alpine · Post Post #396 (isolation #40) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 8:04 am

like i can understand your perspective but please

i am coming from a place where i can see that either scum is okay with claiming gun or several town players picked gun instead of just one

Theta Alpine · Post Post #397 (isolation #41) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 8:04 am

and not from a setup perspective point

from a i have seen other people claim their pick and i know what my pick is perspective

Theta Alpine · Post Post #438 (isolation #42) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:41 pm

In post 436, Alisae wrote: we only get punished for flipping all guns if all mafia did not pick gun.
In what world does that EVER happen

in a world where most of the game is rose

actually pretty likely

Theta Alpine · Post Post #441 (isolation #43) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:42 pm

like seriously do you really think that only one town player picked gun

do you really think town would not be that trigger happy

Theta Alpine · Post Post #445 (isolation #44) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:45 pm

In post 443, Alisae wrote:
In post 438, Theta Alpine wrote:
In post 436, Alisae wrote: we only get punished for flipping all guns if all mafia did not pick gun.
In what world does that EVER happen
in a world where most of the game is rose

actually pretty likely
If the wolf team has 0 guns then I am happy to play into that.

you are happy to potentially give scum either four completely safe kills
or to give them four free mislims as town chases down their own guns

Theta Alpine · Post Post #446 (isolation #45) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:47 pm

In post 442, Taly wrote:
theta
, do you have any confident reads?

not really no

i am wondering if scum went all rose specifically to set up this situation but that does seem a bit bold

Theta Alpine · Post Post #449 (isolation #46) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:50 pm

okay fair thank you for making an explanation i can somewhat agree with

Theta Alpine · Post Post #456 (isolation #47) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:55 pm

i tend not to be good at early game reads

but hmm

aristeia i have
been suspicious of their convictions in requesting a massclaim
this is frankly just not a setup where an early massclaim is a good idea i think
but not sure if that is scum motivated or not

i should probably look at the previous times this setup was run though and see what got figured out then

enchant i am
not sure about i usually do not try to read them early on

wheme i am pretty sure is meming with their claim

Theta Alpine · Post Post #470 (isolation #48) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 3:17 pm

see the thing is

this is a game where scum knows town will likely have guns as well

and not dying as scum is actually more valuable then one extra kill usually especially when town vig shots will also be hitting town sometimes to compensate

Theta Alpine · Post Post #474 (isolation #49) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 3:29 pm

In post 473, Alisae wrote:
In post 470, Theta Alpine wrote: see the thing is

this is a game where scum knows town will likely have guns as well

and not dying as scum is actually more valuable then one extra kill usually especially when town vig shots will also be hitting town sometimes to compensate
The BP is very situational and very narrow where as a gun is something you will always get value out of. Not to mention guns just provide more dopamine than roses so you will have players just do it for the dopamine. It happens more often than you think in some card games.

except there are also roses

so that gun will not always be providing value

and also

the dopamine thing is also easier to suppress when you have teammates potentially able to come up with a more solid plan
the fact we only have four guns suggests to me it was likely just mostly town

Theta Alpine · Post Post #485 (isolation #50) » Wed Oct 25, 2023 3:42 pm

i guess it really just depends on who scum are then as to what they picked

Theta Alpine · Post Post #573 (isolation #51) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 1:32 am

guns have an even amount of usage

roses are more powerful the more guns there are

Theta Alpine · Post Post #649 (isolation #52) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 10:49 am

i am fairly certain the gun claims will resolve themselves

i am
barely able to pay attention right now myself due to external factors to be honest
someone give me a good reason to sheep them please

Theta Alpine · Post Post #651 (isolation #53) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 10:57 am

pondering if it would be appropriate to call vla for experiencing burnout
not mafia specific burnout just general burnout but it is definitely impacting my ability to play

Theta Alpine · Post Post #654 (isolation #54) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 11:39 am

v/la until wednesday for personal reasons

i did try to dive dunn and bulge and idk
both feel like lhf and not scum

Theta Alpine · Post Post #656 (isolation #55) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 11:41 am

that is true

dunn felt worse then bulge for what it is worth

Theta Alpine · Post Post #663 (isolation #56) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 12:56 pm

not at the moment

i have been pinged by the requests for massclaims but i cannot come to a conclusion if those are scum motivated or not

unfortunately just not enough information day 1

Theta Alpine · Post Post #751 (isolation #57) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 6:25 pm

damn leaving me out of it

i even said i would always pick rose as scum

Theta Alpine · Post Post #753 (isolation #58) » Fri Oct 27, 2023 6:28 pm

i am fairly convinced at this point that scum picked most of all roses though

just no clue who that means to push

Theta Alpine · Post Post #992 (isolation #59) » Sat Oct 28, 2023 10:06 am

i barely understand the past five pages and i just read through them

i do not think wheme is scum though

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1173 (isolation #60) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:07 pm

oh huh

well who shot the bulge cause they can be conf town

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1176 (isolation #61) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:09 pm

i mean at this point it does look like all mafia may have taken guns

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1181 (isolation #62) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:11 pm

okay yeah we should ask them to claim their shots

also who did the bulge shoot hmm

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1183 (isolation #63) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:12 pm

i will have to think about this a bit

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1217 (isolation #64) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:45 pm

alisae can be town

unless enchant counter claims the shot on bulge

the argument that all guns need to die is the reason that alisae would survive to tonight

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1219 (isolation #65) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:47 pm

we are missing two very likely mafia controlled kills so depending on how many night 1 roses claim we might be able to clear a few more people

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1220 (isolation #66) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:48 pm

if enchant claims the shot on celeblocki then that is just two mafia night kills missing

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1225 (isolation #67) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 4:07 pm

if our poe is five or less i think we win

if i have the math correct

or maybe it is four or less

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1230 (isolation #68) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 4:11 pm

i phrased that badly

we can do a poe of five people
as long as we can collectively place six people as town correctly then we win

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1231 (isolation #69) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 4:12 pm

assuming

assuming that all of the guns are used up

which i think they are

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1233 (isolation #70) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 4:14 pm

we are almost definitely in a situation where our last mafia picked rose though

actually wait

can scum multitask gun and night kill

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1234 (isolation #71) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 4:15 pm

i am going to assume they can tbh

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1236 (isolation #72) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 4:18 pm

yeah i can admit to needing to be in the poe probably
which is fine we have enough mislims to spare

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1237 (isolation #73) » Tue Oct 31, 2023 4:18 pm

i am self-admittedly one of the people who would pick rose as scum so

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1343 (isolation #74) » Wed Nov 01, 2023 2:54 am

scum already have three free shots to take from whoever they attempted to kill last night plus the town gun
so i feel safe claiming night 1 rose

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1348 (isolation #75) » Wed Nov 01, 2023 3:44 am

if no one else claims night 1 rose then me and taly are confirmed town

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1349 (isolation #76) » Wed Nov 01, 2023 3:45 am

i kind of doubt that not only were there only two night 1 roses but that both of the scum kills landed on them though so

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1355 (isolation #77) » Wed Nov 01, 2023 4:42 am

oh
right

forgot about that

VOTE: whemestar

Theta Alpine · Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:17 am

i mean the last scum has the unfortunate task of trying to stay out of a five person poe

wheme me enchant taly and someone else probably solves the game

Theta Alpine · Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:21 am

it probably makes everyone happy

maybe

i am still trying to catch up and read please do not listen to me

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1499 (isolation #80) » Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:44 am

well it was not enchant

i should probably read more and try to figure out something that makes sense

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1506 (isolation #81) » Fri Nov 03, 2023 1:02 pm

rather unfortunate indeed

more unfortunate that the person i most suspect right now is aristeia because i am fairly sure that is wrong

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1509 (isolation #82) » Fri Nov 03, 2023 1:43 pm

you were one of the strong proponents of all mafia must have been gun

which i assume the final scum would have pushed for given that it appears the final scum went rose instead

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1510 (isolation #83) » Fri Nov 03, 2023 1:44 pm

i have not looked at associations with the two flipped scum yet though so

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1548 (isolation #84) » Sat Nov 04, 2023 6:24 am

i mean it is a little hard to get motivation when i know i need to be eliminated probably anyways and i also am not the best at sorting people

but i can do some actual reading into interactions with dunn and bulge and try to figure out if i can determine much

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1551 (isolation #85) » Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:53 am

huh

dunn and bulge had opposing interactions with aristeia
dunn was supportive of aris ideas while bulge was pushing ari for role fishing

not sure what that means but it is interesting
i am not especially able to tell if the interactions felt unnatural or not though

Theta Alpine · Sat Nov 04, 2023 10:42 am

yeah i do not expect to last longer then ari myself so

it is just my strongest suspicion at the moment cause we are either looking for a deep wolf or scum that have nearly given up and i do not know which

Theta Alpine · Post Post #2113 (isolation #87) » Mon Nov 13, 2023 6:32 pm

sorry about having to replace out of this game but

after i kind of failed to read through the game after a point in day 1
i really was not able to get into reading again and definitely would not have been able to get town read so

Theta Alpine · Post Post #2114 (isolation #88) » Mon Nov 13, 2023 6:38 pm

i will not be putting this game in my stats because i do not think i deserve it but

glad to see town did manage to get a win after all