Toriel's Patience (end)

[Dunnstral]

Isis described this as an open setup in sign-ups. I do believe we are all vanilla except the double vote, and then we have the option to spare or fight.

It seems like if we choose to fight, this setup is pretty close to mountainous.

[Dunnstral]

I do wonder why 2 people felt the need to claim VT right away

[Dunnstral]

I don't think I said it was attractive. I'm actually not sure what the downsides to picking spare are.

[Dunnstral]

I also would have voted Dunn for the record, but primarily for the subtle way in which his very first post was to recommend that he be saved.

What do you mean...

[Dunnstral]

OK I get what Brown Eyes is saying. I actually did not realize that about the setup as it was not super obvious.

[Dunnstral]

I also would have voted Dunn for the record, but primarily for the subtle way in which his very first post was to recommend that he be saved.

What do you mean...

Can you elaborate on what you don't understand about what I said there?

I thought I simply died on day 3 regardless of what route we went for. I did not realize sparing was good for me.

[Dunnstral]

Dunn

have any impressions on people rn?

I think people are at various levels of understanding the setup right now.

[Dunnstral]

Meuh entrance does not look good to me.

[Dunnstral]

I believe I've played 1 game with them before. I don't like that they voted for somebody who hadn't posted.

[Dunnstral]

Plus with the whole mercy route that works in favor cause all you gotta do is find the super duper obvious people and yay! You win.

Although I guess you could go the fight route but I just assumed everyone like me joined for the mercy route.

Look at this:

If Mercy is chosen, for the rest of the game subsequent eliminations are flavored as sparings and town wins if town spares four townies and loses if it spares two mafia.

The day 3 elimination is Toriel.

This is what I initially missed, if we spare then I end up as one of the spared people, rather than simply leaving the game. So you're not supposed to know what route we are going for yet.

[Dunnstral]

i guess ill take the keyleth route and say im treating mandate as town until i get evidence to the contrary

Capitalize the I's. Also i agree.

[Dunnstral]

I believe I've played 1 game with them before. I don't like that they voted for somebody who hadn't posted.

We’ve played 2 games together before (Invictus also happened), I tend to vote for non-posters when opening, I like broadening our horizons rather than laser focusing on the handful of slots present at game start, especially if I’m not going to be super present in the few hours after game start

I don't agree with the philosophy here but appreciate the explanation.

[Dunnstral]

We're not preparing for the mercy route yet though, we're trying to figure out who to eliminate for today and tomorrow.

[Dunnstral]

I won't say that I townread everybody, but I don't feel compelled to vote for anybody at this time, at least.

[Dunnstral]

We're not preparing for the mercy route yet though, we're trying to figure out who to eliminate for today and tomorrow.

You know I had a really stupid question but instead of embarrassing myself I'm going to simply say you are correct. Do you also townread everyone or does no one give you reason to vote them?

It feels like you asked me what I said in 135.

[Dunnstral]

Plus with the whole mercy route that works in favor cause all you gotta do is find the super duper obvious people and yay! You win.

Although I guess you could go the fight route but I just assumed everyone like me joined for the mercy route.

Look at this:

If Mercy is chosen, for the rest of the game subsequent eliminations are flavored as sparings and town wins if town spares four townies and loses if it spares two mafia.

The day 3 elimination is Toriel.

This is what I initially missed, if we spare then I end up as one of the spared people, rather than simply leaving the game. So you're not supposed to know what route we are going for yet.

Is this confirmed? I thought toriel went no matter what. 'eliminations are flavored as sparings' , so even if you're spared you're still out right?

Yes but if we spare I count towards one of the sparings. So it would be bad if I were mafia. Mechanically, that's the only reason we would not spare in this setup.

[Dunnstral]

I feel good about Brown Eyes being town.

[Dunnstral]

After that post from Mandate I feel even more content to vote the mercy route!

This makes no sense to say. I'm not saying I think you're scum for saying it, I haven't decided on you yet. I'm saying it literally makes no sense when it was just spelled out that we go mercy if we think Toriel is town, we don't if we think Toriel is scum. Mandate's thoughts on your shouldn't affect this at all.

I have no reason to not think Dunnstral is town right now, and with the points I gave Mandate it makes me feel even better. All you need is two more to win the game, right? It's easier to find townies then it is to find wolves. At least, to me it is!

Only nights 1-3 are skipped, the whole game is not nightless. Mafia can kill people before we can spare them.

[Dunnstral]

This doesn't help Sakura as a wolf though, does it?

what doesn't

If you're a wolf you want to be townread so you go over or push some wrong villagers but Sakura is just, doing neither? Unless that's the point to get townread but that's wifom ya know?

This feels kind of reductive? Wolves post to have thread presence, to be engaged in the game, to have fun... pushing agenda is nice but not every single wolf post is anchored on that and not every wolf post has deep and complex connotations. Wolves absolutely just post random thoughts to look more engaged, which tend to make you look more townie (or at the very least less appealing to lim), and nothing in Sakura's posting indicates that she isn't

trying

to be townread. Wraps around to the classic "if I'm a wolf, how come I'm not being townread?" argument, as if getting townread is this guaranteed thing to gain with certain posts rather than something that wolves fail at a bunch.

I agree with this. Also this is some strong posting...

[Dunnstral]

Going to throw out some wild reads. Brown Eyes, Meuh, Mandate, Taly, Keyleth, Merlyn are townies.

[Dunnstral]

Throw Sakura Hana in there too.

[Dunnstral]

Going to throw out some wild reads. Brown Eyes, Meuh, Mandate, Taly, Keyleth, Merlyn are townies.

Can you go into detail a bit more about the first two for me, please?
pedit: Wait, I thought I was a wolf now I need to find them?!

Well for Brown Eyes I liked their early thoughts on the setup in 27 and 44. Post 59 seems inquisitive, and then post 149 seems unlikely to come from mafia as I find mafia usually have a harder time understanding information like this, especially when pairing it to people who haven't posted yet.


For Meuh I like posts 288 and 315, and note how she townreads Sakura anyway in post 321, which would be an odd thing to do as mafia given their argument to you which is actually based on the theory.

[Dunnstral]

@Dunn r any of these alts you know who and which one

According to the game rules, specifically common rule #8, we are not to speak vaguely so as to have a private conversation in public using previously known information from before the game.

[Dunnstral]

Lazy Shirou I don't know what to expect from you as mafia after having played with you a few times before.

I am cautiously townreading your posts on the previous page 18

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: beeboy

[Dunnstral]

im p confident I could win this game if it was like just a straight up sparing game and I got to be dictator

Who would you spare at this point Aristeia?

Include 6 names because mafia kill 3 times in between the spares. You can include yourself but not me.

[Dunnstral]

Strong town: Brown Eyes, Meuh, Taly, Mandate
Soft town: Sakura, Implosion, Keyleth, Merlyn, Shirou

Remaining players: Beeboy, Alisae, Aristeia, Dannflor


That is where I am at right now. Perhaps needs some refining as I feel I have too many players as towny. I don't want to default to voting Alisae today due to activity.

[Dunnstral]

*Lazy Shirou

sorry let me put some respect on the name

[Dunnstral]

is today a normal lim day?

Yes, except I'm a double voter and there is no night kill. We get one more elimination tomorrow where I am a normal voter which also does not have a night kill before we move on to spare/kill.

[Dunnstral]

which townreads are you least confident in,

dunn

?

Keyleth, Shirou, and Merlyn

[Dunnstral]

My read on Keyleth is based on the feeling that they really misunderstood the setup, and that relies on the thought that mafia are more likely to understand it as they would have had time to talk about it, but that is not infallible logic as it is based on an assumption.

Lazy Shirou I liked their posts spanning from 378 to 449, but I am wary about them because I think they are capable of trickery and I don't have a good read on them. On second thoughts I really like posts 378 and 449 so I would move them out of the 'least confident' designation.

Merlyn simply does not have a lot of content, and this was pretty much a pure tone read.

[Dunnstral]

ah i see then

any questions for me

dunn

?

No I have none right now.

i can see 449 being townish, 378 is kind of eh though.

I came to the opposite conclusion as Shirou does in that post but the fact that they noticed it and their interaction with Meuh seems town to me.

[Dunnstral]

Let's do it like this and say I am least sure about my 4 soft town instead:

Strong town: Brown Eyes, Meuh, Taly, Mandate, Shirou
Soft town: Sakura, Implosion, Keyleth, Merlyn

Remaining players: Beeboy, Alisae, Aristeia, Dannflor

Additional reasoning:

Sakura read is mostly based on tone posts which I believe is her strength as mafia (I might be misremembering my reasons for this read too)

Implosion has rigid catchup posts which are fakeable, even though the posts look good at a glance

My reasoning on Shirou feels strong to me and stronger than the rest in that category

[Dunnstral]

im curious about your strong townreads aside from

shirou

,

dunn

namely i need to spend time on

brown eyes/meuh

i feel

450

[Dunnstral]

im p confident I could win this game if it was like just a straight up sparing game and I got to be dictator

Who would you spare at this point Aristeia?

Include 6 names because mafia kill 3 times in between the spares. You can include yourself but not me.

probably Sakura? wouldn't really be sure atp. Think its probably a bad idea to consider more than one name at a time for the spare route because you'd just giving mafia nightkill targets.

I think your confidence in post 400 was unfounded.

[Dunnstral]

I appreciate your post implosion

[Dunnstral]

I have to wonder if you would bother with the calculations if you're mafia.

i am curious though

dunn

, this isnt too necessary but why do you feel strongly on me being town?

i find it interesting i got a lot of townreads after i left the thread because the consensus was that i was aligned with

Key

before i did

Well I never thought you were aligned with Keyleth and I like to form my opinions. I think you are an emotional player as town and your posting some time after the start of the game made me think you were much more likely to be town than mafia.

[Dunnstral]

im p confident I could win this game if it was like just a straight up sparing game and I got to be dictator

Who would you spare at this point Aristeia?

Include 6 names because mafia kill 3 times in between the spares. You can include yourself but not me.

probably Sakura? wouldn't really be sure atp. Think its probably a bad idea to consider more than one name at a time for the spare route because you'd just giving mafia nightkill targets.

I think your confidence in post 400 was unfounded.

well I usually am pretty good when I do things one step at a time and if I was a dictator with the ability to interrogate people for a week I'd probably be able to confidently find 1 town at a time.

I think its probably true I am more confident then I should be but I like to believe in myself.

There's an argument that if we're going the spare game route then it can be valuable to keep at least *some* reads close to our chests, or probably more importantly that once we start sparing, we all collectively frequently re-evaluate. I say this because one framing (I think Mandate was implying this framing earlier) is that we can think of the spare game as all collectively making a town->scum ordering and just sparing the top townie in that ordering every day. But if we make that list public then scum killing the top of that list is more impactful than it is in a normal game, because every time they kill someone, we can no longer spare that person.

OK fellas. Right now for the elimination I am thinking one of the names in my bottom group here:

Strong town: Brown Eyes, Meuh, Taly, Mandate, Shirou
Soft town: Sakura, Implosion, Keyleth, Merlyn

Remaining players: Beeboy, Alisae, Aristeia, Dannflor

Except I don't like the idea of voting the least active player, so perhaps not Alisae. Beeboy also has a low post count but they made one big post which looked over the game so they are fair game IMO.

[Dunnstral]

Or am I reading someone incorrectly here and should expand my pool?

[Dunnstral]

Dunn, can you sell me on your beeboy vote?

They posted "Dunn is one of the most important slots to discuss" but then didn't feel the need to do that themselves after, really.
I think other players have been townier so they are in my PoE. I am not able to get a good grasp of how Beeboy arrived to their conclusions, even after reading their post.

[Dunnstral]

only people i have reservations on in your pool are

meuh/shirou

OK. I've explained my own reasoning and I get that it's not going to be convincing for everybody.

[Dunnstral]

Strong town: Brown Eyes, Meuh, Taly, Mandate, Shirou
Soft town: Sakura, Implosion, Keyleth, Merlyn

Remaining players: Beeboy, Alisae, Aristeia, Dannflor

@Aristeia

If you can convince me I am incorrectly reading somebody as town here I will move you up to Soft town.

Open offer throughout this day phase, no rush.

[Dunnstral]

read my last 10 posts and return to me if you think my reasoning for voting

meuh

is lacking

I think the reasoning to vote for Meuh is very weak.

[Dunnstral]

ari

has this weird fucking knack of kicking my ass into gear but okay

pedit

read my last 10 posts and return to me if you think my reasoning for voting

meuh

is lacking

I think the reasoning to vote for Meuh is very weak.

do you have an alternative? because i want to sort that slot and want to continue this vote until im confident that theyre a town or scum

I've given my alternatives in my reads

I proposed Aristeia, beeboy, or Dannflor.

[Dunnstral]

Oddly enough people are saying stuff like Sakura Hana is the easiest player in the game to read but I think our #1 loss condition is Sakura+Dunn being 2 scum here and I'm actually very stressed about it

If you have reasoning for Sakura, I'm all ears.

[Dunnstral]

i dont get your read on her even now, but i agree that her tone in this quote feels unnatural on first glance

Shirou is saying he is leaning towards town on Meuh for that post

[Dunnstral]

do you have a reason for your

dann/ari/beeboy

scumreads that are not PoE

dunn

?

620 for beeboy

Aristeia is having trouble figuring out what to say for reads even when prodded. Am willing to give them time though.

The majority of Dannflor's iso is pushing Keyleth and reevaluating Keyleth. They've garnerd a few townreads but I have to assume they are easily within a range where they could be mafia and making these posts. I am not townreading them after a lot of posts which is something at least.

[Dunnstral]

meuh

do you actually have reads? i see a lot of explaining on your end that im not getting any defintiive stance from

Mandate hardest town read
Merlyn, Dunn, you, Sakura, also town
Dann, Ari, Shirou, Key, Implo, I've absorbed some of their posting but don't have a good grasp there
Brown Eyes, Alisae and Beeboy exist I think?

🗞️ bonk

Having a low post count is not a good reason to be suspecting 3 people, and only suspecting those people

[Dunnstral]

implo

i get the impression you're distancing from a stance on me, is that correct?

Not actively but I definitely don't feel especially confident on my read of you. I am still inclined to call you scum bc I don't really buy the reasons I've seen for you as town as much as the bulk of the field and I think there are some reasons to see you as scummy but it's a read with no real confidence whatsoever.

How about this then. Taly is trying to get people to explain their stances and pushing people then changing their mind and voting elsewhere. Do you see this as scum controlling the thread vs town trying to sort things out?

[Dunnstral]

meuh

do you actually have reads? i see a lot of explaining on your end that im not getting any defintiive stance from

Mandate hardest town read
Merlyn, Dunn, you, Sakura, also town
Dann, Ari, Shirou, Key, Implo, I've absorbed some of their posting but don't have a good grasp there
Brown Eyes, Alisae and Beeboy exist I think?

🗞️ bonk

Having a low post count is not a good reason to be suspecting 3 people, and only suspecting those people

I'm not suspecting them, they're just there. I'm scumreading nobody

So your reads are:
Town
also Town
Null
also Null

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Dannflor

Let's go Dannflor since I feel there is little interest in beeboy.

[Dunnstral]

has any of

meuh's

recent posting caught your attention

dunn

?

I'm reading it. I think they are town.

[Dunnstral]

i think dannflor's first 10 or however many pages were really town, i'm not interested in voting for dannflor unless time passes and he falls off (which could happen but time has not yet passed).

I think Dannflor's first few posts were very light on content and accusing someone of conveniently pushing toriel is something they can easily do as mafia.

[Dunnstral]

has any of

meuh's

recent posting caught your attention

dunn

?

I'm reading it. I think they are town.

can you explain why?

I think they are giving their opinions as best they can, and I can follow their thought process. They have a believable view of the game and I think they would have tried to be "smarter" about their read on me if they were mafia.

[Dunnstral]

I feel pretty confident about my 5 highest townreads. My logic makes sense to myself.

[Dunnstral]

has any of

meuh's

recent posting caught your attention

dunn

?

I'm reading it. I think they are town.

can you explain why?

I think they are giving their opinions as best they can, and I can follow their thought process. They have a believable view of the game and I think they would have tried to be "smarter" about their read on me if they were mafia.

Any of this a meta take? Curious

Maybe a little. I think they tend to look like an elimination target as town. Never played with them when they were mafia.

[Dunnstral]

I don't really think Dannflor is maliciously not posting right now, I think they are just away. Instead I think they are a good vote because as Shirou put it they looked superficially good.

[Dunnstral]

There's not even that much hesitation there's just a lot of people that I'm already never changing my read on to the point that the people who are just below that are causing me a lot of angst

what, never? Which ones?

I'm very very sold on Dann Implo Keyleth Brown Eyes towns

I'm also very sold on Taly Sakura

I like Meuh less than the above and then you a large amount less than Meuh (but I still like you!)

I said what I said about Aristeia because I thought it was necessary but I didn't really wanna share how I feel about everyone in the scumpool until everyone in it does more

I feel like this is such a startling amount of confidence, I'm trying to decide if it's town for that or if you're just openwolfing here.

Can you share with me why you don't want to talk about how you feel about your scumreads until they do more? It'll be hard to judge your progression if you're not sharing your earlier thoughts

How is this different from what I did?

[Dunnstral]

what I'm reading here Sakura would be the last person I spare, infact I'd be probably voting her!

It's a shame you can't vote right now then

[Dunnstral]

Or am I misunderstanding what you are saying.

[Dunnstral]

There's not even that much hesitation there's just a lot of people that I'm already never changing my read on to the point that the people who are just below that are causing me a lot of angst

what, never? Which ones?

I'm very very sold on Dann Implo Keyleth Brown Eyes towns

I'm also very sold on Taly Sakura

I like Meuh less than the above and then you a large amount less than Meuh (but I still like you!)

I said what I said about Aristeia because I thought it was necessary but I didn't really wanna share how I feel about everyone in the scumpool until everyone in it does more

I feel like this is such a startling amount of confidence, I'm trying to decide if it's town for that or if you're just openwolfing here.

Can you share with me why you don't want to talk about how you feel about your scumreads until they do more? It'll be hard to judge your progression if you're not sharing your earlier thoughts

How is this different from what I did?

I don't remember whatever it is that you did

559, 584

[Dunnstral]

There's not even that much hesitation there's just a lot of people that I'm already never changing my read on to the point that the people who are just below that are causing me a lot of angst

what, never? Which ones?

I'm very very sold on Dann Implo Keyleth Brown Eyes towns

I'm also very sold on Taly Sakura

I like Meuh less than the above and then you a large amount less than Meuh (but I still like you!)

I said what I said about Aristeia because I thought it was necessary but I didn't really wanna share how I feel about everyone in the scumpool until everyone in it does more

I feel like this is such a startling amount of confidence, I'm trying to decide if it's town for that or if you're just openwolfing here.

Can you share with me why you don't want to talk about how you feel about your scumreads until they do more? It'll be hard to judge your progression if you're not sharing your earlier thoughts

How is this different from what I did?

I don't remember whatever it is that you did

559, 584

Got it. Are you 'very, very sold' on those townreads and you will 'never change your vote on them', then?

Well I did post 746 Bbut I see what you are taking issue with here.

[Dunnstral]

I simply don't think Dannflor can present as cohesive a narrative as scum as he did this game, i found it very easy to track exactly what Dannflor was thinking that never entered his posting and then his future posting followed the unspoken trajectory more than the spoken trajectory. Scum try to (usually succeed too) keep narrative cohesiveness from post to post but they usually struggle to have a coherent ""out of thread pov"" that underlines the posts that they actually make. I don't think Dannflor does this successfully as scum.

Huh, what are you referring to?

[Dunnstral]

beebot I don't understand 789

[Dunnstral]

I don't really feel that shitposting and joking around is any less readable than cases and pushes as a player but if you're interested in something specific you can track the trajectory of his read on me as the game developed. There's a real town thought process there that isn't actually put in words in the thread until very late but it's still there and for scum that kind of thing is usually not there.

why can't it just be "huh this guy is really loud and thread dominant let me fake a townread on him to get him on my side"

like what thought process do you think he went through to make a townread on you that is unlikely for him to fake as scum.

I agree, this read seems rather weak especially looking back at Dannflor's posts where there really is no progression

[Dunnstral]

I am kind of shocked people are town reading everyone, I guess I am half as active and 10 pages behind so I don't have a lot of the live conversations other people have to form reads but that is really just not the vibe I am getting.

Also Mandate why not just vote me if you want to? It's a costless resource to vote me hesitating seems weird in all honesty.

It is a lot of people with a lot of townreads, more than I'm used to seeing too. Do you think there's something scummy about it Beeboy or are you just thinking it's an odd quirk of the game

It's why i think the actives contain more scum then not?
In general if everyone is comfortable waiting to vote out a lurker you don't want to place a vote and thus shift the gamestate in a way that makes it more readable. A lack of readability generally favors the wolves since when playing at complete random I believe wolves tend to win statistically but I could be wrong.

basically stale discussion = discussion is controlled by people who don't care that it's stale = discussion controlled by not town.

Who is voting a lurker

[Dunnstral]

Regarding Dannflor: the claim was made that scum!he just lazily townread me for having a strong presence. I don't think anyone has pushed us as SvS so I don't need to defend that accusation. What I have to say regarding that is that he -didn't- townread me. Explicitly. He townread someone else that I also townread but didn't give a townread to me. I had to prompt it and he still wouldn't give me an explicit townread, just a lean. In contrast to what other people say about him giving me an easy townread I think it's kind of obvious that he was never fully comfortable in that townread and I also think it's kind of obvious that it has to do with him alt guessing me as a strong scum player. And I felt all this as it was going on and it felt far outside the bounds of something that Dannflor as scum would think to fake. He was also just very, idk, in the flow on the first page of the game and didn't feel forced or offbeat at all and I'm very much struggling with anyone characterizing his play as wanton scum!Aggression because there's the interesting vote hop taly->Keyleth that I really liked plus the fact that he didn't really, like, push anyone that hard? I also struggle with the characterization of him as meme voting because I think he was continually providing game relevant content while he was here so the push on him just entirely doesn't grok with the ISO of his that I've read.

Spoiler:

how do you feel about

mandate

,

dann

?

i don't have a read on mandate yet

i guess ill take the keyleth route and say im treating mandate as town until i get evidence to the contrary

im townreading you kinda

it was directed at mandate

not sure what merlyn is referring to either

I disagree that you can tell that Dannflor is showing aprehension due to thinking you are an alt here. They simply do not say that so you are guessing here. Instead it looks like their posts are chained from their previous posts and they are not fully committing to a read because it is early in the game and that makes sense. Also being "in the flow" early in the game is easy for scum to fake IMO.

[Dunnstral]

Hm, they say "stale discussion" in post 839, and I think they were parroting what you were saying earlier, but I never thought the discussion was stale.

Sure I don't like their last ~4 posts or vote on Meuh.

VOTE: beeboy

[Dunnstral]

something for the anime girlies and scummers

Very nice

[Dunnstral]

Hm, they say "stale discussion" in post 839, and I think they were parroting what you were saying earlier, but I never thought the discussion was stale.

Sure I don't like their last ~4 posts or vote on Meuh.

VOTE: beeboy

Whether or not a thread is stale is mostly just an opinion.

Right. And I think it may be harder to get into the discussion as mafia, which would mean you would get less out of it and would be more inclined to hold such an opinion.

[Dunnstral]

Votecount 1.2

() -

Very nice Isis

[Dunnstral]

The optimist in me wants to think that Dann's dissapearance from the thread is because the thread is moving fast and he hasn't had time to post like he did at thread start.
Is that a silly thing to think.

I think this is a scum post

it reads as asking permission to join my wagon

I think they are calling you town there

[Dunnstral]

758 not 744 surely

[Dunnstral]

That puts beeboy at 2 away from elimination.

[Dunnstral]

That was not an invitation to unvote

[Dunnstral]

Interesting stance, considering he literally twisted my words to make them appear scummy.

i don't know why you are jumping to this

i am not convinced you are hard scum but i do think my wagon was kind of in a weird place for scum to interact with and you interacted with it weirdly

I'm phrasing it as i see it.
P-Edit:
I explained it pretty well, i saw people scumreading you, I wanted to defend you but couldn't, tried to find literally any reason to validate my initial TR on you because i townread you very hard, then reading the words "you being superficially good" hung on my head, thinking maybe i got taken in by that and gave you a TR by mistake, and decided to pressure you.
Like what else would you even think 772 is.

I find this believable but your thought process was not clear before now.

[Dunnstral]

Well there's no role that needs to be claimed and no night phase.

[Dunnstral]

Yes but I think your explanation makes sense. And I am warming up to Dannflor too.

[Dunnstral]

That was well said.

[Dunnstral]

I think I would view Sakura's progression more favorably if it had been a sharp move from top town town read to vote?

it's mostly 758 that bothers me because it engages with something other than an actual read on me

like i don't think anyone actually said i was scum because i wasn't in the thread and if sakura did have a strong town read on me i don't understand why her first instinct to seeing a wagon would be to interrogate people's actual reads on me and/or spell out why she was town reading me in the first place

It is responding to the post right before it:

Dann felt superficially good early on, has vanished and hasn't sold me he's necessarily town

This game just feels hard atm if scum isn't just Meuh/Ali/Beeboy or something

[Dunnstral]

finally

VOTE: beeboy

this game moves too fast :X

May you tell me how you reached this point when you get back?

739

[Dunnstral]

My analysis and opinion is that your initial dive into the game doesn't align with your

Meuh

vote and I mentioned in an ISO a few questions about how curious your wording of some slots are, vague as they were.

I mean I was talking to implosion and not you when I asked that question anyway, I didn’t see a particular reason to engage you on it since I kind of have an idea as to how this convo would go already. I was confused on how Implosion could end up voting me after I read there catch up but I missed the post on sheeping mandate.

I don’t particularly agree with your vote though if you want me to talk about it since your engaging my implosion concern. I wasn’t leading into voting anyone else and I don’t think I implied I thought Meuh was town anywhere. I think this is more of an issue with how you are reading my posts then anything on my part. The only part to talk about is the confidence bit you mentioned but it’s kinda just how I like to talk until later in the game where I have more info. I struggle a lot to post confidently when games don’t really have content to do that with. To skip some motions when I refer to content I don’t mean pages, posts, cases or emotions, I mostly mean shifting votes on places that are under pressure and flips which can’t come this early in a game no matter how many pages you have.

how did you expect this convo to go?

Tbh this conversation is really weird to me, I don't know what you are getting at since all my responses seem not very alignment indicative.
Implosion didn't speak to me as far as I was aware so I didn't have a specific expectation on why he voted me. I had genuine curiosity about it so I could figure out his alignment.

Like did you want me to have an expectation and if so what would it be?

I agree, your responses don't feel AI and I was wondering if the level of awareness you had was.

Dunn

how do you feel about

beeboy

in the last 2 pages?

I am not being swayed towards thinking beeboy is town with their posts. Given my thoughts on other players, I am fine with eliminating them still.

[Dunnstral]

Gamma correctly identifying Beeboy in his last scum game in the site (as far as I know?):

how is beeboy a legit scumread anyone has what have they even done

i dont remember seeinf a single post fron them..

I kinda think his town/scum meta are divergent that he can be read on 7 posts
He sounds wooden here, rather than natural. Wanna guess which alignment thosw trend towards for him?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=84949
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=84286
The first link is a beeboy scumgame, the second is a beeboy towngame. I feel like it’s rather apparent beeboy has been posting more like the former than the latter.

re: Meerkat: read his sig lol
Him being meme-y is NAI

These iso's are so tiny. 22 posts and 12 posts. beeboy replaces out of both of these games...

[Dunnstral]

I'm really not happy with the sequence of events that lead to my being effectively outed even though I went to the trouble to make an alt in a period where I hadn't had any site activity in several months but if everyone wants to put me in that bin then sure

I have absolutely no idea who you are

[Dunnstral]

If I had to summarize my "findings", I would say that as scum Beeboy seemed to focus mostly on stating an opinion on things while as town he seemed to give more focus on explaining how exactly he got his opinion on something.

town!Beeboy reads/analysis just seems to have *way* more meat to it but I'll confess that the games I've read he posted very little and I'm giving it credibility mostly because other people seem to also think he's very distinctly readable by meta (for likely similar reasons?).

You are analyzing a tiny sample size of posts from several years ago

[Dunnstral]

I don't think either of Lazy Shirou or Mandate are mafia

[Dunnstral]

Aristeia you can still try to convince me one of my reads is wrong.

[Dunnstral]

I took another look at Meuh, I don't think she is mafia

[Dunnstral]

Game is a social experiment all players are town GG thanks for joining everyone please nominate this game for all available scummies categories, it is undertale themed so it is guaranteed to win

I've invited people to try to change my reads because I recognize that as a double voter in a fourteen player game it is going to be really difficult if I am not cooperating with the vote. Most people only want to suspect the five names I am most confident on and I am not seeing anything that is convincing to me, really.

[Dunnstral]

I took another look at Meuh, I don't think she is mafia

Please enlighten me because I keep reading and seeing mafia

Meuh tends to attract a lot of negative attention in general. There were a couple of posts she made I liked such as 288 and 315. And then their read on Sakura in 321, and 448 seeming brazen for mafia. Meanwhile I'm not really hearing any arguments for why they are mafia even though it is being parroted.

[Dunnstral]

Was hoping I'd be around for the brown eyes catchup but it's not to be.

Ttyl

[Dunnstral]

I should prob post my reads so people have reasons to retroactively justify there votes on me when they get asked about it.




Shirou - Town
Taly - Town

Merlyn - I get the vibe they aren't trying to incorporate themselves in the town block, please people with there posts, or push read, they are just posting thoughts which is generally a townie approach

Keyleth - Idk why they are here I just like there general vibes in there posts.
Sakura - Townie, but also feels super lowkey at the same time which makes me not want to push her up.

Alisae - AFK, not alignment indicative
Aristeia - Null cause Null
Brown Eyes - Initially town read them, but they feel disconnnected more recently, don't think it's alignment indicative but I don't want to leave them in my town piles.

Dann - Im not sure right now, I scumread him at one point but my interest in his slot kinda died off?
Dunn - My read on him keeps bouncing around but his push on me is starting to get boring

Implosion - Initially town read them but they feel disconnected more recently, but this time in a bad way.

Mandate - There push on me feels manufactured, I don't like there interaction with Ari, I'm not actually sure why this slot is globally town read
Meuh - Kinda icky slot for reasons already stated

Your bottom 4 reads are the 4 people who were voting for you.

[Dunnstral]

You have Taly as town I suppose.

At one point the wagon was:

Meuh, Mandate, Implosion, me x 2, Taly

[Dunnstral]

dunn's 721 vote on dann is odd given he scumreads ari and i'm pretty sure at this point a wagon exists on her

This is easily explainable. I'm not voting based on where the wagons already are, I'm voting based on who I want to eliminate. And I was giving Aristiea a chance to show her thought process and try to convince me one of my reads was wrong.

[Dunnstral]

Then why is scum not pushing those players over you?

[Dunnstral]

beeboy your view of the game feels unbelievable to me. I'd expect you to reevaluate if your poe was all players who voted for you not lean into it because your theory seems really unlikely to me.

[Dunnstral]

I think scum are either voting me or inactive right now.
And I don't think that's a bad way to think when part of the reason I'm being voted is poor content/lack of content when like there is multiple people doing less than me :V

It feels super strange to me.

I've explained my reads on everybody. I believe I've gone into at least some detail on why I am reading players as town. It's not really surprising, or it shouldn't be.

[Dunnstral]

I think the part of it that I see as unlikely to come from scum is that just literally calling every single person on your wagon scum is I think a somewhat unnatural reaction to have as scum, I think as scum you get to choose what your reads are and so the normal thing to do is to like, pick a token person on your wagon whomst you will say is actually town and then lambast the rest of it.

They called Taly town and the rest mafia.

[Dunnstral]

I've explained my reads on everybody. I believe I've gone into at least some detail on why I am reading players as town. It's not really surprising, or it shouldn't be.

can you explain the implosion townread?

I liked their early analysis and their EV posting. It is a lazier read admittedly, but I don't see their posting as scummy.

[Dunnstral]

Gut from pages 1-4 is Dann town (though I think I remember seeing that's someone consensus?), Mandate town (...) I thought Mandate's opening was slightly +town even from someone who is clearly gimmicking and I like the timing of the Taly vote on page 4 quite a lot. Dann is townish just for voting like 8 times in 4 pages.

149 is actually an interesting post and probably true of me bc I probably would have explained things in the scum PT at some point, alas. Probably +town (maybe strongly) for Brown Eyes to point out an observation like that, it's an observation that could easily just never be made by anyone. Dunn calling Brown Eyes town shortly after this is slightly good for Dunn (who I don't really have much of a read on at this point).

Mandate town is easy to say, Implo just proceeds to point out bad posts :lol:
It's a read I agree with but also like, naturally easy to fake
Dann read is, as Implo himself pointed out, what a lot of other people were already thinking, easily fakeable.
The Brown Eyes townread is probably the best read Implo has, but 1. I think it's something he could still notice and then comment on, and 2. it's a read based off of a singular post. I think this comes back around later with the Sakura read and it's interesting the way that Implo is laser focusing on a single post, I think it makes it easier for him to argue a scumread but also feels less townie because well, there's a whole bunch of other posts to consider! This is something that comes back a few times, the specificity of the reads. It's always specific things being pointed out and being the reasoning for reads, which seems to me to come more from scum trying to make sure their reads are understood to be about a thing in particular. Scum really hate it when their ideas aren't clear, but townies are much more likely to make broad statement about other people's posting and the general vibes from said posting. But for Implo it's almost always one post or another, never a player's general direction.

221 is a pretty good point (on Keyleth being town) and probably +town a bit for Sakura. To elaborate a bit since it came into question why I think it's +town for Keyleth, the post is just very frank about what it's trying to do. I think scum on average will tend to shy away from a post that's like "hey, we already have me + x as town, who are the other two" particularly in the context of Keyleth having some heat on her. It's not a slam dunk or anything, but I think it's very easy to glance at that post and briefly *think* it's a slam dunk before you've thought it through intensely, hence Sakura is slightly townish for it (but only slightly and this paragraph is already way too long)

This is like, fine, but also something Implo can just say about a town Sakura. I guess the point about it being surface-level scummy but actually town indicative is cool, but it's also the exact angle Implo would be able to argue from with the knowledge that Sakura is town and the thread otherwise disliking that post from her.

i can see 449 being townish, 378 is kind of eh though.

ARE YOU STILL GLAZING OVER THEM

yes

Meh

Somewhat inclined to trust Ari on Sakura.

explain the mandate tr plz

wasn't to me but mandate is extremely town in my eyes.

They have all the right stances at all the right times. The way they're thinking about the game feels right, I liked their opening, I liked the evolution of their taly+keyleth team read, I like the evolution of their stances in general, like, the townread on sakura a page or two ago is good for example

This read is less specific ("the way they're thinking about the game", "evolution of stances"), though I think Implo going out of his way to explain why a widely townread player is town isn't the best look?

i think dannflor's first 10 or however many pages were really town, i'm not interested in voting for dannflor unless time passes and he falls off (which could happen but time has not yet passed).

Just kind of reiterating that read without anything new, but making sure to keep the door open for a future vote. So like all this accomplishes is setting things up so Implo can vote for Dann later? Which is also something Implo ends up saying about me. Can't say I'm a big fan of these posts anticipating votes instead of just voting when it feels right to. Feels overly careful.

yeah sure whatever taly is town probably

Taly makes a bunch of good posts (including a vote on Dann, notably) and then Implo pops in with this. I guess it's alright I dunno

Relevantly the coalition game that I was in w Ari and Merlyn just ended today and I was scum so I have some extremely fresh scum meta, which is almost never true of me lol

I think it gave me a pretty good sense of some things from Ari to be on the lookout for as reasons to townread her. If I were a man of more patience I would go back and reread the game from forever ago where she snowed me as scum but i am not going to do that probably ever lol

He acts all murky about Ari for a while, then says he can have better reasons to townread her now, and then doesn't elaborate. Only been 24 hours tbf but his positioning around Ari is definitely odd. Feels like he's scared of her.

VOTE: Implosion
Let's nudge here, why don't we?

VOTE: implosion

????

You know what, i'm not gonna ask anymore, i'm just gonna hope someone that's good at the game gives me some guidance while I figure out where my head is at.

I think this reaction would be kind of incredible to fake as scum. Like, I've been vaguely lurking and beeboy has been talking about thinking their wagon was scum driven and so i feel like replying to beeboy jumping on me with a ???? after beeboy just listed me near the bottom of their reads list the previous page is just like, something scum who care sharply about how they're perceived would never do. I think sakura is already (widely?) townread but this cements it pretty hard for me sort of in the vein of the philosophy that I think Shirou mentioned earlier of trying to read people off a few key posts, which I think I kind of agree with or at least am interested in thinking about as a philosophy of forum mafia.

Like Sakura pointed out, this is very much echoing previous sentiments about her. There's a lot of words so it feels good but the crux of it is "Sakura doesn't care about how she's seen" which like true, but also applies to other posts of her and has already been mentioned.

I have very mixed feelings on beeboy's current trajectory. I think the part of it that I see as unlikely to come from scum is that just literally calling every single person on your wagon scum is I think a somewhat unnatural reaction to have as scum, I think as scum you get to choose what your reads are and so the normal thing to do is to like, pick a token person on your wagon whomst you will say is actually town and then lambast the rest of it. The counterpoint to this is that beeboy is coming back from a long break so I could see them theoretically being kind of lazy as scum and just falling in to pushing all the people pushing them. But I think I am tending to think it's probably town, I don't really see a good reason for scum beeboy to decide to wake up and choose violence in this way. It just kind of puts them at the center of narratives and in the spotlight and embroils them in conflict and idk what the point would be when simpler options exist.

In a dramatic turn of irony i am now going to call beeboy the only townie on my wagon (nah but i am about to call meuh scum i think)

I think Implo not noticing the mention that Taly had been on the Beeboy wagon and that Beeboy was townreading her isn't a very good look... feels odd to drop a read like this but then also just not see 1281 which is quite literally 2 pages earlier, and right after Beeboy's readlist. But like regardless, the argument here is just that scum!Beeboy would not take the stance that his wagon is scumlead cause that makes conflict? Which sure is fine I guess

Anyway. Let's wrap up the post chain with a summary of where I'm at with everyone.

Very Much Locktown: Mandate, Sakura. It'd take a hell of a lot to convince me away from either of them.

Town: Brown Eyes, Keyleth

Probably Town but not as confident as above: beeboy, Dunn (only townread I think I haven't talked about at all yet, but kind of a gut feels-like-he's-playing-like-i-remember-his-towngame-looking)

Town, but will need to be audited sooner than other townreads: Dannflor

Town, but I still have reservations: Taly

Still gotta sort: Ari, Merlyn, Alisae

Also in the still gotta sort tier, but I'm choosing to put him separately not because I think he's scummier than the other people in the tier but because it'll make him angry: Shirou

I saw a thing I don't like and don't remember seeing anything I thought was particularly town but I am definitely going to go look over more stuff later: Meuh

Brown Eyes and Keyleth seemingly haven't changed in Implo's eyes since like his second post? I think the specific mention of the Dunn townread not being spoken about yet is another one of those things that could theoretically be said by town, but that I think scum are more likely to notice. Him elaborating on that read but not some of the older reads that he hasn't touched on in ages very much gives that scummy feel of a player sticking to exactly what's been said before and only deviating on an explicit mention of the contrary.
Definitely curious about his progression on Taly, cause it very much swung with the way the thread was going, which feels convenient.

Overall:
-His town reads feel white knighty
-He feels scared of Ari
-His stance of Taly is convenient
-It feels like he has a need to make his stance exceedingly clear and doesn't like leaving things vague (which is very much a scum perspective)
-There's an almost total lack of progression that feels like it's happening outside of the thread. Every little change in Implo's view of the game is stated in thread. He's not developing a full view of the game on his own, he's dropping thoughts in thread and those thoughts alone are his stance in the game.

This is a well written post Meuh.

I find the ideas presented here plausible. Perhaps Implosion can elaborate more on their progression on their reads of Brown Eyes and Keyleth.

[Dunnstral]

I took another look at Meuh, I don't think she is mafia

I took another look at Meuh, I don't think she is mafia

Please enlighten me because I keep reading and seeing mafia

Meuh tends to attract a lot of negative attention in general.

There were a couple of posts she made I liked such as 288 and 315. And then their read on Sakura in 321, and 448 seeming brazen for mafia. Meanwhile I'm not really hearing any arguments for why they are mafia even though it is being parroted.

The bolded leaves me curious. I understand some people's posting can leave a certain bad taste in my mouth and given this is my first time playing with people that wasn't the impression I got from Meuh at all. If anything, I thought that of Ari when I was reading her posts. Meuh's early posting, was mostly banter besides a few posts on how mafia works in my direction at 315 and 288. I think my biggest problem with Meuh is I can't seem to follow her thought process even though she's been able to show really well and drawn out posting, yet it seems like she doesn't follow up on it. Early townreads on Sakura and Merlyn with no elaboration before leading back into more mafia theory talk just seemed very odd to me. Maybe she was playing causally and wanted to pick up the pace but I've never really been able to shake this odd feeling even reading recent posting when she has started to put the gas on a little.

If I am under the current assumption that the townblock in my head is mostly correct, someone needs to make jabs at it or villagers to remove it, and right now Meuh is fitting that bill. Maybe we just disagree, and that would be great if you could help show that to me?

My experience playing with Meuh is that I was mafia in both of the games we played and I was angling to miseliminate Meuh in both of those games. That is what I meant by negative attention, she is easy for the town to suspect.

Going back to the Sakura townread, that would have been a tone read from when Sakura entered the thread and was speaking freely. It was perhaps too soon to be sure, but I don't view it as scummy.

[Dunnstral]

I actually think Meuh started sounding a lot worse when she was (I'm assuming) taken out of her comfort zone by the direction the game went so don't take this as me lacking personal enthusiasm just

I am exhausted

I mean I agree on Alisae but I don't want to wagon them D1 unless we stall til close to deadline (which I'm perfectly fine to do I don't mind not majjing a Lim) and e still hasn't done anything

Heads up... if we don't reach majority mafia get to pick someone to be eliminated

[Dunnstral]

beeboy your view of the game feels unbelievable to me. I'd expect you to reevaluate if your poe was all players who voted for you not lean into it because your theory seems really unlikely to me.

Really? I don't see an issue with it if you're self-aware enough, what am I missing?

The idea that all the mafia are piling onto beeboy does not make sense to me from beeboy's position. They did mention they had played on MU where that is apparently more common so that alleviates my thinking a little. It's very uncommon here.

[Dunnstral]

I'm looking at 1435 and 1437 right now, if that interests anybody. There's a lot to think about in these posts and I'm not currently excited to do so so I shall return later with thoughts.

[Dunnstral]

I personally think that Meuh is town. However, I won't really have any say in who we will be sparing, and reading the thread mood right now it seems unlikely that Meuh is going to get spared. So I may be willing to concede this elimination, hoping that perhaps I am wrong and that Meuh is a "strong scum player" as you put it.

[Dunnstral]

I personally think that Meuh is town. However, I won't really have any say in who we will be sparing, and reading the thread mood right now it seems unlikely that Meuh is going to get spared. So I may be willing to concede this elimination, hoping that perhaps I am wrong and that Meuh is a "strong scum player" as you put it.

What is your implosion read?
Do you have any spicy takes on any of the "afks", which is mostly just Alisae and BrownEyes atp.

1334

I have BrownEyes as town and no read on Alisae.

[Dunnstral]

Gonna start with the pre-implosion case stuff and then move onto the implosion case stuff, there's three things I didn't like one of which was fairly severe but I was kinda ignoring it because the slot seemed not like the best odds of flipping scum otherwise.

This doesn't help Sakura as a wolf though, does it?

what doesn't

If you're a wolf you want to be townread so you go over or push some wrong villagers but Sakura is just, doing neither? Unless that's the point to get townread but that's wifom ya know?

This feels kind of reductive? Wolves post to have thread presence, to be engaged in the game, to have fun... pushing agenda is nice but not every single wolf post is anchored on that and not every wolf post has deep and complex connotations. Wolves absolutely just post random thoughts to look more engaged, which tend to make you look more townie (or at the very least less appealing to lim), and nothing in Sakura's posting indicates that she isn't

trying

to be townread. Wraps around to the classic "if I'm a wolf, how come I'm not being townread?" argument, as if getting townread is this guaranteed thing to gain with certain posts rather than something that wolves fail at a bunch.

So a lot of people called this a good post and I can see why but I think empirically this is a post that comes from scum more of the time. I am confident this was empirically true, I don't know if that's changed, but I want to point that out there. It also exists in the space of "attacking people getting townread without obviously being anti townblock".

Never thought I'd be playing a game with town Dunnstral, but I think it's finally happening!

This is just very performative and strange! Like I know that Meuh is a performative player but this particular post set me off pretty hard at the time and every time I've reread I've had to stop for a while and think about this one.

Dear Meuh, you spend two of the few content posts you've arguing against Sakura and in the first "perplexed" sounds like it has a negative connotation, but by the end...you find her townie?

Hmmmm

Were you planning to betray me again?!

VOTE: Meuh

The word “perplexed” is deliberate there, it’s negative in terms of her ideas, that seem out there to me, but not her actual alignment.
I argue against

Keyleth’s argument

(which was bad regardless of Sakura’s alignment), then took a look at the ISO and got vague townvibes
You’re imagining implications for reads from the surface of my posting and not the actual thought process I have, there’s no read on Sakura that I actually voice before I agree with Ari, you’re drawing that line, and you’re wrong for doing that! Raises your scum equity a bunch cause I think you’re capable of more substantial reads, was wondering who would react when I agreed with Ari on Sakura, but this is sad… :(

Now here's the one that I actually found very off.

I think that Meuh's argument is actually objectively correct here. She said someone was, basically, weird. She then turned around and townread them. Which is fine I think that is a good progression that can easily come from town. What really stands out about this is the lack of teeth with regards to Shirou. She takes this bizarre middle ground where she calls him wrong, says he's imagining things, then calls him more equity scum because "he's capable of more substantial reads". All of this doesn't sit right at all, I think that if Meuh is town she is neither so performative about explaining what she was ""actually thinking"" and rather forces Shirou to justify his own position nor so wishy washy with regards to Shirou. I think that ending this by saying that it raises his scum equity a bunch without being willing to vote him is bizarre. I think that Meuh is factually not interested in solving Shirou by the way she played it but is also strangely defensive and I get big scum caught for wrong reasons / cross bus vibes from all of this.

Gut from pages 1-4 is Dann town (though I think I remember seeing that's someone consensus?)

I think sakura is already (widely?) townread but this cements it pretty hard for me sort of in the vein of the philosophy that I think Shirou mentioned earlier of trying to read people off a few key posts, which I think I kind of agree with or at least am interested in thinking about as a philosophy of forum mafia.

Anyone else find this scummy? Implo invoking how much a player is already being townread/thread consensus on an issue when posting his take on it is kind of off to me. It's not really a consideration I have when posting reads as town. It comes more from scum thinking about the optics and the ramifications of their read than a townie just dropping some thoughts. :eek:

Idk!
Idk. This is very fake and performative. I don't know what else to say about it. I don't think this is how town!Meuh presents thoughts like this if she has them. The content itself is like, milquetoast but the presentation pings me like mad.

Yeah I'm looking at Implo's ISO and there's nothing town indicative there! :o :o :o
The more substantial reads are townreads that are just really easy to make from an informed perspective. I don't think any of said townreads are pushing boundaries to an extent where I think Implo is particularly trying to sort people
The scumreads are just kind of boring and weak? Implo has little actual insight on it, I think the most substantial scum argument so far is the one against me which is super weak
There's just nothing there that actually indicates Implo thinking about the game like a townie

More fake performative etc.

More importantly is the phrasing of the scumreads. She says it's "easy to make from an informed perspective". Even ignoring the weird question of what that is even supposed to mean, the case is basically that Implosions townreads are all generally townread and his scumreads are weak. Which, well, sure. But this case is applicable to at least half of the lobby and it's something we're talking about constantly. It also caps off with "nothing actually indicates Implosion thinking of this game like a townie" which again like the earlier thing she isn't saying Implosion is scum she's saying there's no evidence Implosion is town and I verified this is not something that she does as a meta thing.

Alright, so most of this post is saying that Meuh is being performative. I read over the same posts and I simply do not see it as performative.

[Dunnstral]

I think Meuh has had steady pressure on them through this day phase by several players. There are a lot of people who have them in the bottom 1/4th of their reads.

[Dunnstral]

Also like as a general rule I'm not saying never but town rarely write things like all the stuff Meuh wrote about the metaphor of the seeds and the watering and the sprouting, it happens on rare occasions but combined with everything else I think she is just big scums and I feel bad because she's been calling me hard town all game and unironically I don't think my mental is good for voting on people who townread me. I wish my scumreads would just all call me scum so I could feel better about it but yeah I think that in a lobby with very few people that are actually very scummy Meuh is kinda really really scummy and an outlier and is the first person that I've felt like ok we should Lim her today

This seems like a playstyle thing.

I don't think any Implo has said is out of his scumrange. I think the only way I will be able to catch him as scum is if we both make it to later in the game and I can see any inconsistencies in the things he said. I really, really question anyone townreading him so casually.

5 people I'd townbin are Shirou, Meuh, Beeboy, Ari, Keyleth.

These reads are kind of spicy

[Dunnstral]

Well like I said earlier. I don't think she is mafia but if we're sparing and I'm the day 3 spare I won't be able to make you folks spare her. So I'd concede that elimination because otherwise it would be a point of contention without benefit, other than the chance for us to eliminate someone else. And yes maybe I am just misreading her, I'm not 100%.

Of course my preference is still to eliminate elsewhere. Beeboy is not a big scumread they are just sort of "meh" in a lobby where I am townreading too many players.

[Dunnstral]

From where I've read up to:

Alisae still doesn't have posts
Shirou I think town
Dann I am leaning town on them now
Merlyn I liked some of their posts so leaning town there too

[Dunnstral]

Dunn

please look at 1877 about my townread of

beeboy

I don't like Implo's posts regarding an expectation to be townread.

why

i think this type of posting comes from town a lot

Does it? Because my memory says no

Explain 1877?

[Dunnstral]

aaaaare they
viewtopic.php?sid=&f=52&t=90403&user_select%5B%5D=33613
they kind of got immediately bodied on this rep in

Good point, they seem town here.

[Dunnstral]

I will say I still never reached the point of particularly thinking Aristeia was town, so Random Nurse is also in the PoE for me.

Should we be reading into these replace outs?

[Dunnstral]

I could take the lazy path and vote Alisae. Their vote on Dann seems ill-explained and I don't really believe they'd "stop reading" Dannflor on page 4 if they believed they were mafia, if that is what Alisae is claiming.

[Dunnstral]

lol.

I still cant shake that weird feeling i got from Merlyn back when she voted me.

Expand perhaps?

[Dunnstral]

Alisae is at e-3 actually

[Dunnstral]

Does anyone wanna see a catch-up from me when I replaced into election day 1?
Maybe that might help people here

Sure go ahead

[Dunnstral]

Alright beeboy, who are we voting?

[Dunnstral]

I want more discussion in this day

I think there's a point at which more discussion will be a strictly bad thing because, vis a vis my last post, it's probably just going to hurt morale/engagement until we get some info to go off of. Of course if you're now not feeling good about the Alisae wagon then etc, but I think prolonging the day for the sake of wanting more discussion broadly is just going to cause consternation when the trajectory of most of this game right now is summed up by a sentiment that I think I mentioned earlier where it feels like no matter who comes under the spotlight, they will find a way to worm their way out of it. Mandate's presence in the game was i think good in a way because Mandate eventually found someone that it seemed they weren't going to waver on (Meuh). But everyone in this game now seems inclined to waver constantly, which I'm not saying makes them scummy (it doesn't) nor that it's bad play (i don't think it is, but i think that could be debated). But it does make it viscerally feel like no progress is being made.

also I was trying to remember just what games it was that made implo scared of me which had me re-reading my older games and omg i am cringing so hard jesus christ

I think i'm proud of the fact that i can reread games from like, within the past 5ish years and they don't make me cringe that much, but gosh reading old games is truly extremely cringe-inducing

My current feelings: I still think Random Nurse is the slot I think is being prematurely PoE'd because I still think Ari was in her scumrange. I feel better about Taly being town. I don't specifically see what in Bingle's posting is making Taly feel better about the slot, and I think the Brown Eyes single post I was reading off of is sort of not really up to the standard of this game at this point, so I want to consider Bingle more. I still feel good about Keyleth as town. I think I'm probably being premature when my gut says to take Meuh out of the PoE; I think probably she should still be in there when compared with the rest of the game, she's had like, some good individual posts but I don't really feel like she's done much that isn't fakeable as a scum who pops in to the thread, does a round of Faking Stuff, then leaves; i.e., I don't think she has any particularly challenging-to-fake progressions, or particularly original/nuanced reasoning that would be hard to fake, or anything like that. A part of her recent posting feels a little bit defeatist, and I don't want to use that term in a negative way exactly - just like, compare someone like Taly, who seems viscerally annoyed that she keeps finding new reasons to townread people. Like, I suspect Taly is going to read this post I'm making right now and go "fuck, i guess i was right that implo was town" and be annoyed at that. I think that's the emotional state that this game is kind of imposing on townies, and I don't really get any feeling of deep concern over the correctness of Meuh's reads coming from her. She's kind of parked her opinion on me to be some sort of broad suspicion but not a push. She did the case on me after ISOing me but like, from what I can tell she has not substantively commented on a post I have made in around five days. I don't think that's the behavior of town who has the stance she does on me in the gamestate we're in, where like, I think the average voice in this game is mostly-but-not-confidently townreading me. She should be either talking to people about why I'm scum, or looking at my posts and evolving her read on me in response to them, or trying to suss me out, or like, interacting with me or my content in any way.

Unvote

VOTE: Meuh

I've re-convinced myself. Still okay with an Alisae lim as well now though, but.

These posts seem pretty towny to me.

[Dunnstral]

if you think scum is okay with the gamestate, what mutually agreed upon townreads do you think are wrong?

That’s the problem, innit?

I don’t really see anyone as super scummy. I do think I’ve come up with a way to vastly improve our EV that may have been missed in the design of the setup though.

VOTE: No elimination

I... don't take immediate issue with this idea.

If we eliminate, we run to risk of dwindling our town pool for going the mercy route.

Arguably the people we choose to eliminate today wouldn't have been in contention for being spared.

[Dunnstral]

okay i caught up
I think
Ari, Bee, Sakura, Shirou, Taly, and Key are all probably town.
Brown eyes is probably town as well.
Then there's Merlyn, Dunn, and Meuh. Meuh is kind of just unreadable to me.
And then there's Dann Implo Mandate
and I think Dann is the most suspicious. I think Dann's read on me is technically fine but I think they overexplained and overjustified it and I think that comes across as wolfy to me. They also screamed wolf to me early.
I think Dann is teammates w/ Implo

Subject: Election! | GAME OVER

I think LLD, Pooky, and ActionDan are powerwolfing this game.
I feel like a lot of the LLD TRs stem from their interactions with Cakez, I don't really agree.
I feel like LLD is just pushing town based on her pushes. Doesn't feel like she wants to be right.

Meowth in particular just feels like it's a pretty easy elim and I feel like LLD and Pookers are wolves on the wagon. I think that makes sense for what is happening in this game.
I feel like they're just playing their own game and I empathize with their reads it feels it comes from someone who is having trouble getting into the game.
Though honestly I think I have more problems with the people who want the guy dead than the player itself.

--

Furtive I think I am going to need more time with, he seems different more sane here. I think the player should actually just be easier to read as we get deeper into the game.
Bingle is probably town in this game tbh, I think he's being played like a fiddle.
I liked Skrew's early game and I can buy town trying to engage with cakez the way he did early
I really like Enchant early Datisi vote I think that is probably just town motive.
Xofelf I am keeping my eyes on and refuse to elaborate any further.
I think I buy that std believes his meowth read.
GL's posts are pretty hard for me to parse but I want to say he is a villager I think him voting Herta for treasurer seems town motivated.
I will buy that Herta/Gimli is town in this game.
I feel like I don't remember a single unowen post.
I think Cakez is town I don't think their interactions with LLD are overplayed they feel natural.
Bloodbot is obvtown

There are surface level similarities between these two posts between this game and another game where you replaced as town (that you pointed out)

[Dunnstral]

I want to emphasize AGAIN that:

If Dunn is town we only need 5 correct TRs to win here.

Start discussing a consensus townblock if there's nothing else to discuss.

A townblock of 5 people to be clear

No reason whatsoever to include people there other than the 5 towniest slots

It would just give a chance for scum to insert themselves

I would like if more people engaged with this.

[Dunnstral]

I think my flip would only be informative if I were mafia. I don't think me flipping town will change any opinions, really, and I don't have faith that people will listen to me once I'm dead unless I present a compelling argument beforehand.

You being the setup reviewer is news to me, at least. I imagine a lot of players don't really pay attention to that.

[Dunnstral]

If meuh flips town it has wolves all over it

Really? I got the exact opposite vibe unless freedom is a wolf.

Explain please

[Dunnstral]

TBH I actually feel like scum are mostly off Meuh's wagon.

You too I suppose

I'll decide where to move my vote tonight

[Dunnstral]

Sorry was busy. I explained this earlier but if Meuh is never getting spared anyway we can eliminate there to move the game along and hope that I'm wrong. So since we've been stuck on that for days let's do that now, sorry Meuh.

VOTE: Meuh

[Dunnstral]

Reading up now

[Dunnstral]

like if im honest i feel less strongly about dunn maybe scum than i was a few hours ago because i was just very annoyed by it happening and i think the logic of killing someone because we will never spare them despite us not /entirely/ being locked into sparing is jarring. i guess because its the assumption of sparing? maybe im reading it too uncharitably and dunn was talking about the potential sparing world but it didnt feel like that to me and im afraid of a game where we go to the spare route and dunn is a wolf and suddenly the room for error is zero because it is a lot less fun to solve at that point

You were free to engage with my logic the three times I posted it before hammering. You and your slot have been pushing Meuh very hard so don't try to point this at me; I didn't even think that was mafia but don't act like you would have spared Meuh when it's very clear that you would not have and you would have continued to tinfoil Meuh as mafia had she still been alive.

[Dunnstral]

it's so weird that i replace mandate and now everyone's suddenly like oh... well maybe not town...
like in a frustrating way because this is me like ... trying my best to solve
and i feel like i am being seen as a lesser player lol

And I still think you're town, to be clear. I just think you're being disingenuous to try to make yourself look better post flip which is a little irritating.

[Dunnstral]

i think its less likely scum does it because its showing a belief in a town alignment to defend or understand ones predecessor

its fakeable, but i view predecessors like dead masons or dead scum partners

viewing your predecessor with either curiosity, critical thinking, or understanding is a sign of good faith that is AI

I think mafia are more likely to be talking about their predecessor like that though

[Dunnstral]

I thought Brown Eyes was super town early but I don't see from bingle what I would call a town post. It is a bit worrying for me.

[Dunnstral]

What do you need to talk to me about Taly?

I'm not personally seeing Beeboy as super town.
Freedom was one of my weeker townreads.

[Dunnstral]

The thread has always been divided, most players have not been agreeing with my reads on Meuh or on Shirou, and now people are changing their reads on Ydrasse as well. I've gotten no support on Beeboy

[Dunnstral]

No I think Shirou is town. My memory is that most people disagreed with that.

[Dunnstral]

I mean beeboy hasn't really done anything in 2 weeks. And at that point I felt like other players had something towny going for them but beeboy really didn't. I'm not seeing where everyone is townreading thm or acting like they are going to solve the game. Again, they're truly not doing anything.

[Dunnstral]

What town slip are we referring to?

[Dunnstral]

Well, Dunn is the first spare if we pick mercy right? Then you probably eat the nk and I brute force Ali to get spared and then???? Panic?

What does this mean?

[Dunnstral]

Anyways. ssbm_Kyouko is lock town since beeboy always replaces out when they are town.

[Dunnstral]

He does not.

[Dunnstral]

Alright I didn't see that game, that's fair. But look at the rest of Beeboy's game history:

Gnosia -

Town

- Replaces out
TFT uPick -

Mafia

- Eliminated day 1
Cards of Destiny (Hayasaka account) -

Town

- Replaces out
Epilogue -

Mafia

- Dance game and partner leaves at end of game
Betrayal Mafia -

Town

- Replaces out
Undertale C Open -

Mafia

- Makes it to the end of the game and wins

[Dunnstral]

Alright I didn't see that game, that's fair. But look at the rest of Beeboy's game history:

Gnosia -

Town

- Replaces out
TFT uPick -

Mafia

- Eliminated day 1
Cards of Destiny (Hayasaka account) -

Town

- Replaces out
Epilogue -

Mafia

- Dance game and partner leaves at end of game
Betrayal Mafia -

Town

- Replaces out
Undertale C Open -

Mafia

- Makes it to the end of the game and wins

alright, i think i’m just being nitpicky about this kind of clearing and am more interested in the like. actual content of his game making the slot town
(even though i don’t really feel like the slot is wolf so teehee)

Looks like beeboy is less invested as town which in hindsight lines up with their play we have seen in this game.

[Dunnstral]

Hmm, shirou probably town for how they engaged Taly around the meuh wagon and wanting more credit for the flip. Preflip that is.

This seems nuanced

[Dunnstral]

There is no night kill between Toriel being spared and the next spare.

Nights 1-3 are skipped. Toriel is the day 3 Spare, and then the following night is the last skipped night.

[Dunnstral]

Hm, they say "stale discussion" in post 839, and I think they were parroting what you were saying earlier, but I never thought the discussion was stale.

Sure I don't like their last ~4 posts or vote on Meuh.

VOTE: beeboy

Where did Mandate mention a stale discussion before 839? I like parroting as a scumtell when it is paired with a metadive to confirm that the player does not use a certain phrasing normally, but I don't think it actually happened here (also bee/I are town so I know in this case it's incorrect regardless of whether it happened or what beeboy's meta shows)

732 and 738

It has less to do with the word choice used and more about the concept, Mandate said the thread was stagnating and needed to be moved forward.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Freedom

[Dunnstral]

those were both quickhammers

Should I have let them claim?

[Dunnstral]

There are no roles to claim in this setup

[Dunnstral]

I feel I talked plenty about why Meuh was town to me initially. Freedom was a weaker read and I wasn't sure who was mafia so I was fine with that vote.

[Dunnstral]

dunn

what are your final reads?

Spare: Taly, Shirou, Dannflor, ssbm_Kyouko,Ydrasse
Towny: Keyleth, implosion, Sakura Hana

And then shrug, I wouldn't spare the rest. Alisae, RCEnigma, Bingle

[Dunnstral]

if

dunn

is town and we stick to the town consensus

that's

2/4

townies spared with an extra dead one

Meuh-Freedom-

Dunnstral-Taly

-???

that brings it to

6:3

where odds of sparing scum is

1/3rd

scum would NEED to be in line for both spares at that point

Town needs to spare 4 townies to win so mafia would need 2 spares in the next 3

[Dunnstral]

If majority is not achieved by deadline, I will privately contact the mafia to decide on behalf of the town.

[Dunnstral]

I'm under the impression that Taly is the consensus first spare, and that if they're not they will die at night

And after that I dunno. I trust Keyleth's read on Dannflor so you guys can spare there or kill them at night if that's what you're into.

[Dunnstral]

ssbm we didn't rush anything we've been here for 3 weeks.

[Dunnstral]

If Sakura were scum that would be a nice bit of posting on this page to appear that they were considering things. Or they're just town.

[Dunnstral]

ssbm what you're positing is that I could be mafia and mafia have infiltrated the "town core" elsewhere? In that case I have no reason to be hammering people, really.

I feel like I just sped things along, really. I saved us waiting for several days before people hammered meuh and then freedom.

[Dunnstral]

Also we are 1 heal away from sparing

Dunn

, any final words

Dunn

?

I don't have anything in mind

[Dunnstral]

Nice work fellas. That brings me one step closer to my win condition.

[Dunnstral]

Day 3 lasts one prod timer and voting is disabled. The day 3 elimination is Toriel.

Still gotta wait for Day 3 to end after choosing.
Anything else you wanna add Dunn?

I think we should spare Taly first

[Dunnstral]

I don't personally think Ydrasse or Shirou are mafia though it seems opinion has shifted there.

I am willing to trust Keyleth's read on Dannflor but hesitate to fully lock in Keyleth as town. I am leaning towards them being town though.

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler:

[Dunnstral]

bruh

[Dunnstral]

It's Toriel's Patience, not Toriel's skip to the next phase

[Dunnstral]

[Dunnstral]

give me a succinct reason for

sakura

scum

Fake-feeling lack of confidence, odd treatment of townreads around her, paranoia mismatched with actual progression, not assuming her stances and delegating them to others

im not ready to consider

sakura

-scum, that world somewhat dictates a team of deepwolves and im not starving for scumreads anymore.

@Taly - Why make 2601 if this is the response? To say you're not starving for scumreads at this point means you have several? Or does it mean you don't feel like you need more anymore? Both?

It's not so close to deadline (a couple of days) that meuh has to be the flip here and the deadline is even getting an extension based on Random Nurse's replacement timer (which was still pending) + 24 hours. 2601 feels disingenuous when it seems like you don't care for an answer some 20 minutes later. There was an opportunity here I think for you to lead something away from Meuh and if you weren't lacking scumreads I feel like, were I in your shoes after asking 2601 (which looks like "give me a reason it shouldn't be you - give me someone else instead"), I would, as town, be having misgivings about eliminating Meuh. You don't seem to have them though.

Does anyone else (@Dunnstral especially with your hours being numbered) see partner equity between Taly and Sakura from this? It feels like if Meuh's answer were not Sakura that maybe Taly was willing to a do a different townie since Meuh had commited a sparelist containing Taly?

Even after the hammer Taly asks for a "final" readslist which realistically is innocuous and NAI, but after typing all this out it feels like reaching for a final stamp of approval from who Taly knows will flip town. This last bit is confbiased from my interpretation of 2601 and its continuation though.

I am reading Taly as town for a few reasons. I'm not sure their engagement being a little weird here is indicative of them being mafia, much less partnered specifically with Sakura

[Dunnstral]

I still think, I wanna go spare and send Ydrasse over because with that I'll feel much better with the town core established early because there reads seemed really well written. If that slot is bad then obviously so is my way of handling this game.

I get concerned seeing this shortly after Ydrasse starts to reconsider Keyleth's alignment. Assuming Dunn flips scum we'll need to be careful of this sort of thing, because as we spare consensus town, we get left with the less-consensus town that might have not been spared if the consensus town were still around as stumps or something like that. If Dunn is scum we'll need to be wary of them crafting a scenario where they can slip a deepwolf through to sparing by way of sparing and killing the townies that would otherwise not spare that deepwolf. Like this is obvious I think but should still be stated in case it's missed by anyone.

heheh, big assumption

okay i caught up
I think
Ari, Bee, Sakura, Shirou, Taly, and Key are all probably town.
Brown eyes is probably town as well.
Then there's Merlyn, Dunn, and Meuh. Meuh is kind of just unreadable to me.
And then there's Dann Implo Mandate
and I think Dann is the most suspicious. I think Dann's read on me is technically fine but I think they overexplained and overjustified it and I think that comes across as wolfy to me. They also screamed wolf to me early.
I think Dann is teammates w/ Implo

alisae

vote

meuh

with me

ask me again in 48 hours
I'd also just be happy if you voted Dann

Meuh is a really hard player to read but I also have literally no grasp at how it is they play the game.

the best way for me to read meuh at the current moment is to flip her

You can vote Meuh.
Meuh is an unreadable player to me. I'll probably compromise there.

ok sike on my last post ali is just scum and has spewed that Dann Taly and I are town

Good point. I'm not sure where their outrage is stemming from.

[Dunnstral]

I say we pick 3 towniest people and then argue out who is the best one after Taly.

My choice is Kyouko. We can leave a "backup slot" (fourth towniest) in case any of those people are nightkilled.

Taly, ssbm_Kyouko, Lazy Shirou

And then Ydrasse

[Dunnstral]

Dunn what's your personal read on Dann? Am I crazy?

Leaning town but rethinking my placement at the top. That is mostly based off of trusting your read I guess and needing a 5th person to replace meuh (RIP). I could potentially see them as mafia I suppose, but I feel you put forth good reasons to townread them so go with that. I'd say I'm most confident in the 4 names before that and even bingle has looked a bit better to me recently and I am thinking about my early townread on Brown Eyes so maybe they are town. Main suspects right now are Alisae and RCE.

[Dunnstral]

[Dunnstral]

i think i want to see

dunn's

flip

if

dunn

is actually scum then my worldview will probably change for the 50th time

You will see it

[Dunnstral]

I'll let my flip speak for itself. And boy does it have a story to tell.

[Dunnstral]

I for one, will miss Dunn.

We will meet again in the dead thread.

[Dunnstral]

I've definitely told you my opinions and thoughts Shirou

[Dunnstral]

Dunn is scum

It's hard for me to believe he's playing this cryptic as town rather than trying to give last opinions/thoughts in the game

Maybe he thinks it's funny even as town but nothing about his behavior coming today makes me feel like this will be a town flip unhappily

Let me know if there's anything you want me to give my thoughts on.

[Dunnstral]

Fine, I'll do that before the day ends today.

[Dunnstral]

I can tell you guys if you don't want to wait.

Spoiler:

Town

[Dunnstral]

Like nobody has mentioned my 2 spares as the 2nd spare after me wtf

I want

Keyleth

or

Lazy Shirou

spared

I mentioned Lazy Shirou.

[Dunnstral]

dunn

please towncase me for these plebians

I feel that your level engagement with this game goes beyond your scum game. Your tendency to think one thing and then flip to another thing is a trait of your town game that would be difficult to replicate to the extend seen here. I thought I'd write more here but it came out rather short, but both of these seem like strong reasons to me.

[Dunnstral]

Like… “town would never twilight troll” doesn’t seem like a real thought process that anyone could have in 2017, let alone 2023.

I didn't say he could never be town here,

I said it feels unlikely to me atm

and yes I dislike twilight trolling when it's for whole 52 hours rather than a few hours/minutes

I've been responding to people asking me for stuff. I'm not sure what you're expecting me to do, but before being hammered I did say I didn't have much more to add. I've made my opinions known.

But if you ask me that...hm, why do you feel "better" about Bingle recently and from your weaker town leans (Keyleth, Implosion, Sakura), what's the rank of least possible to most possible of being a "deepwolf" in your view? (and if you feel like expanding on your rankings, why you feel that way about each one).

When Bingle made posts 3506 and 3512 it felt like they were finally engaging with the game instead of avoiding it, and I liked those posts.

Between my weaker reads I would say from least to most likely to be a deep wolf: Implosion, Keyleth, Sakura Hana.

Implosion seems the most logical. They agreed with the Freedom elimination but reasoned it out. If they were a deep wolf it would be because what we took as towny posting was still in their scum range.


With Keyleth I have to wonder if posts like 3767 are perhaps overacting a little. They did vote for Meuh and Freedom. Other than that I've liked their posting. If they were a deep wolf it would be because they are trying to sell a perception of themselves to us.


Sakura Hana seems to mostly be read on tone, and I think that is the most susceptible to being faked as mafia. Posts 3410 to 3417 could either be real consideration or mafia putting on a show to look good. If they are a deep wolf it would be because they tried to make themselves look town on tone and look like they are evaluating the game.

[Dunnstral]

Like nobody has mentioned my 2 spares as the 2nd spare after me wtf

I say we pick 3 towniest people and then argue out who is the best one after Taly.

My choice is Kyouko. We can leave a "backup slot" (fourth towniest) in case any of those people are nightkilled.

Taly, ssbm_Kyouko, Lazy Shirou

And then Ydrasse

☝️

[Dunnstral]

[Dunnstral]

GG

[Dunnstral]

In the future I didn't like the phase after I was hammered where we can't do anything