Mini 1017: Quantum Mafia - GAME OVER!


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Mini 1017: Quantum Mafia - GAME OVER!

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 11:15 am

Post by magnus_orion »

Mini 1017: Quantum Mafia


The game exists in every state simultaneously.
Players may be dead and not dead at the same time
Players may be town and mafia at the same time.
The only way for us to determine what really is the case is for the game to end, and us to open the box and look inside. At which point the game’s wave function will collapse, and one side will be declared the winner.
Is Schrödinger’s Cat alive or is it dead? Let’s find out.

(Possibly) Alive (bold confirmed):

6. Narsis
Netopalis
,
?????? Mafia
Won Day 7
7. Parama, ?????? Mafia
Won Day 7




Definitely Dead:

12. zwetschenwasser, Townie
Lynched Day 2
5. Mysterio, Townie
Lynched Day 3
9. Plum, Townie
Lynched Day 4
11. Zajnet, Cop
Lynched Day 5
8. Exe
parknourie
, Townie
Lynched Day 6
3. Kairyuu, Townie
Died Night 6
4. MafiaSSK, Townie
Died Night 6
2. jmj3000
Drowmage
Alpha Mafia
Lynched Day 7
10. The Mask, Townie
Died Day 7
1. DarkLightA, Townie
Died Day 7

Replacements:

Exe replaces parknourie
jmj3000 replaces drowmage
narsis replaces Netopalis
Last edited by magnus_orion on Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:10 am, edited 29 times in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 11:16 am

Post by magnus_orion »

General Rules: (Stolen from Kairyuu, with modifications)


1. Do not discuss the game outside of the game thread unless your role specifically allows it. This is a modkillable offense.

2. Do not quote the mod. Ever. You have been warned.
Sample Role PM wrote:Congratulations PLAYERNAME, welcome to quantum mafia.

Active Abilities


Investigate:
You have the possibility of being a
Cop
. As such, each night, you may submit an investigation target, and you will be told an alignment, which will be true in all scenarios where you are a cop.

Night Kill:
You have the possibility of being
Mafia
. As such, each night, you may submit a night kill. That player will be killed in all scenarios where they are town and you are the designated mafia killer. All scenarios where they are mafia with you will be eliminated.

Passive Abilities


Update:
At the beginning of each day, you will be given updated information about your status in terms of alignment, and the probability that you are dead. If, at any time, you have a 100% chance of being only one role, you will be informed what your role is.

Win condition:

Currently:

25% Mafia (you win when you outnumber the town or nothing can prevent the same)

75% Town (you win when all threats to the town are eliminated)

Right now, you have a 0% chance of being dead at the moment.

Please confirm via PM. The game will begin when all players have confirmed.

3. If you notice a mistake that I have made, please pm me about it or bold it in the thread: @Mod: I was voting player X, not player Y

4. Modkilled players become Neutral Survivors and automatically lose. (however, they will be collapsed normally, as in, it will be determined and announced what they would’ve been had they not been modkilled) In addition, a modkill either will or won't end the day depending on which will hurt the modkilled player's faction the most (scum modkill will not, town modkill will).

5. Do not post in
blue
. It is my color. Impersonating the mod will cause disciplinary action to be taken.

Voting, lynching, and death

6. Votes must be in bold:
vote: Magnus_Orion


7. You must unvote before you can place another vote.
unvote
and
vote: Kairyuu
but you do not need to specify who you are unvoting.

8. Voting for a
no lynch
is acceptable.

9. Lynch happens when a player reaches a voting level equal to 1/2 of living players + 1 rounded down.

10. At deadline, the required number of votes to lynch is 1/2 of the normal amount, also rounded down (if it would be 6, it is 3; if 5, also 3). However, once there are 7 or less players alive a full majority will be required to lynch.

11. Roles will be revealed upon death.

12. Once a player has been lynched they are allowed a single 'bah' post with no game related content.

13. Once a lynch count has been reached, the game enters twilight. During twilight anyone except the lynched player may continue to speak until I post a death scene.

Activity


14. By signing up for this game you have agreed to treat it as a commitment. I expect you to honor that commitment.

15. Day Phases will have a non retractable deadline of 3 real life weeks. Night Phases will have a non retractable deadline of 72 hours.

16. If a player has not posted in 48 hours then I will prod them. They will then have 24 hours to respond in thread or they will be replaced. I don't want this game dragging.

17. V/LA notes posted in thread or PMed to me will be honored.

Conduct


18. Play nice. If you can't kill each other without being polite then you shouldn't be here. That is to say, ad hom attacks will get you a warning, and then a second offense will get you forcibly replaced.

19. Have fun, and play to win.

Special Rules


20. This game operates in such a way as that every single role distribution possible is considered. As night actions come in, possibilities will be ruled out as a result. The setup is NOT determined in advance. The actions that take place during the game will determine the setup.

21. You are simultaneously every role in the game, therefore, your alignment is both town and mafia, and you have 2 powers, to night kill and to investigate. You submit both every night. You must submit a night kill choice, but investigation is optional. Your results are only true in the scenarios where you are the role relevant to the results. If your results become impossible, then you will be ruled out as that role.

22. Flips are determined based on probabilities and remaining scenarios. When a person flips, their alignment and role will be randomly determined based on the current probabilities, and then all scenarios where that flip is impossible will be ruled out.

23. Similarly, investigation results will be based on the probabilities related to the investigator. Ie. If, of the scenarios where player 1 is the investigator, player 2 is mafia in half of them, then if player 2 is investigated by player 1, there is a 50% chance player 1 will get a “guilty” result. All scenarios where the result is impossible will be ruled out. Ie. If player 1 gets a guilty in the above example, then all scenarios where player 1 is a cop and player 2 is town will be eliminated

24. Mafia kills are special. The mafia has a hierarchy: alpha, beta, and gamma mafia. As long as the alpha mafia is alive, they submit the kill. If the alpha mafia dies, then beta submits the kill, and so on.

25. Each player submits a night kill every night. Every scenario where they are the killer, and their target is mafia will be eliminated, as mafia cannot target mafia. In every scenario where they are the killer and their target is town, their target will be killed. This means it is possible to be “partially dead”. If your death probability ever reaches 100%, you will officially die and be removed from the game. As long as your death probability is not 100%, you may play as normal. Actions taken by “quantum ghosts” will not be rewritten in hind-sight (just because it turned out you should’ve died earlier (someone who killed you early on flips scum, guaranteeing you were killed by him, for example) doesn’t mean your previous actions/votes don’t count. It will however, result in your death probability going to 100% and you dying on the spot)

26. Every day, I will pm the individual probabilities of you being town, mafia and dead to you. I will also put up an anonymous scoreboard which lists those probabilities for every player in the game (but not their names). Further, the order of the scoreboard will be randomized, and will not be consistent between days (unless it is randomly so). The purpose of the scoreboard is to give players some idea of how the game is developing. If ever it is only possible for you to be one role, you will be informed that such is the case (in other words, if it’s impossible for you not to be the cop, you will be told that you are the cop). You will not be informed of your individual status on roles, however, only alignments.

27. The game ends when, in every possibility, the players have consistently fulfilled their win condition, and that win condition is the same in every possibility. (ie. if all the mafia are dead in every possibility, then the remaining players are all guaranteed to be town, but the cop may not necessarily be known. Those players would then be victorious).

28. This game is investigation-only night-start. That means that there will be a “night 0” where everyone may submit investigations, but not kills. This is to ensure that the probabilities for players are not all the same at the beginning, adding some variety to day 1.

29.
This game is highly experimental
. There may be unforeseen problems. Balance is questionable. You have been warned.

30. I will attempt to answer any questions as best I can. Feel free to contact me to ask me anything.
Last edited by magnus_orion on Mon Aug 02, 2010 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 11:18 am

Post by magnus_orion »

Role PMs have been sent out. Please confirm via PM.
Night 0 begins once everyone has confirmed.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:25 am

Post by magnus_orion »

It is now Night 0. Please send in night actions.
Day 1 will begin Aug 6, 12:00 PM EST, or once all night actions have been submitted.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Fri Aug 06, 2010 5:05 am

Post by magnus_orion »

I'm going to extend the night phase 24 hours because some players were unable to locate the thread.
Deadline is now Aug 7, 12:00 PM EST.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 9:14 am

Post by magnus_orion »


It is now day 1.

The current scoreboard is:

MafiaTownDead
26.2921348%73.7078652%0%
20.8988764%79.1011236%0%
26.2921348%73.7078652%0%
26.2921348%73.7078652%0%
26.2921348%73.7078652%0%
26.2921348%73.7078652%0%
20.8988764%79.1011236%0%
28.3146067%71.6853933%0%
26.2921348%73.7078652%0%
28.3146067%71.6853933%0%
18.2022472%81.7977528%0%
25.6179775%74.3820225%0%



Apologies for the delay.
Deadline is Aug 28, 4:30 pm EST
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 9:34 am

Post by Zajnet »

How do we proceed here? How can we scumhunt? Should we just pick someone who is annoying to policy lynch?
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 9:59 am

Post by Kairyuu »

I've been thinking, and I seem to have a way to proceed, at least for today.

Since none of us actually know whether or not we are scum, we cannot use traditional tells. In fact, we cannot really do anything except play the odds for D1. For this reason, we each need to claim our percentages (this is allowed, I checked with magnus). Since there are only 12 percentages, and since no one has any incentive to lie (being more likely town than scum) we will get honest answers. From there, we should lynch the person with the highest percentage of being scum.

That's the optimal play for D1 from what I can see. I'm still working on how to influence the numbers to pretty much decide who the scum will be.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:02 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Also, we should claim our investigation targets and our results. That will help to figure out how exactly the investigations influence the numbers. For reference, my information is as follows:

Investigated: zwet
Result: Innocent
Percentages: 20.8988764% scum, 79.1011236% town
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:14 am

Post by Zajnet »

Sounds good. I investigated MafiaSSK and got innocent.
26.2921348% scum
73.7078652% town

There will be two people tied for 28.xx% scum. How do we decide which one to lynch?
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:17 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Zajnet wrote:Sounds good. I investigated MafiaSSK and got innocent.
26.2921348% scum
73.7078652% town

There will be two people tied for 28.xx% scum. How do we decide which one to lynch?
That will probably be based on how the investigations affect things.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:20 am

Post by DarkLightA »

Inverstigated zwetschenwasser too, got innocent.
Percents: 26.2921348% 73.7078652%

@Mod, how are percentages calculated? How can you affect them? When you recieve an "innocent" from an investigation, does that mean they
are
innocent or are most likely to be so?
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:25 am

Post by Zajnet »

The way I understand investigations, it doesn't mean that they are at all. What it does is eliminate all possible scenarios where you are the cop and they're scum, which is what affects their percentages. My guess is that someone got a guilty on the two people with a higher scum percentage, and that zwet will be the guy with 20 or 18% scumness.
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:28 am

Post by magnus_orion »

Percentages are determined by dividing the number of possible scenarios where the condition in question is the case, by the number of possible scenarios.
They are affected when scenarios are ruled out as impossible, or, in the case of death, when you are targetted by a night kill or lynched (lynch takes it to 100% immediately)

investigations are determined randomly, based on the percentages relative to scenarios where you are a cop.
So if there are 50 possible scenarios remaining, you are a cop in 10 possible situations, and your target are mafia in 3 of those scenarios where you are a cop, then they have a 30% chance of flipping mafia in your investigation.
AFTER your investigation, all scenarios where your result is impossible will be eliminated, so an innocent result in the above case will eliminate the three scenarios where you are a cop and your target is mafia.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:50 am

Post by Mysterio »

I guess zwet was a name that popped out. I investigated him as well and got innocent. My percentage is:

26.2921348% Mafia
73.7078652% Town
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 1:21 pm

Post by zwetschenwasser »

I am the 81% town guy, because of the investigations. I investigated plum and got innocent
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 1:51 pm

Post by Parama »

26.2921348% scum
73.7078652% town

Investigated Kairyuu, for an innocent.
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 1:57 pm

Post by Parama »

Hmm...
If investigating a person raises one of their percentages, in theory, would it be best for everyone to investigate one player? If we get innocent results, their chance of being town increases, and if we get guilty results, their chance of being mafia increases.
This is assuming we can actually get guilty results. Meh.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 2:27 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Parama: That's exactly what I was thinking.

@all: The more I think about it, the better a No Lynch sounds, at least until we can get the numbers more in town's favor.

I say that we all share results and percentages, and then we decide on one person to have everyone invertigate, and one person to have everyone shoot.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 2:50 pm

Post by Parama »

Mass-investigate the person with the highest chance of being scum
Shoot the person with the highest chance of being town
Good plan?
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 2:59 pm

Post by Plum »

Good man, suggesting our viable plan before I got here.

20.8988764% Mafia
79.1011236% Town

Got an innocent on Kairyuu.

I thought mass-investigating someone likely to be Town would be the better plan. Parama, your reasons?
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 3:02 pm

Post by Zajnet »

Shouldn't we shoot the person with the highest chance of being scum?
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 3:07 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Another realization:

If everyone shoots the same person, that person becomes 100% town (by virtue of the fact that all scenerios where that person is scumbuddies with anyone else are eliminated) AND 100% dead (by virtue of the fact that unless that person is the alpha scum, which is impossible because they're 100% town, they were just shot by the alpha scum, regardless of who it is). Therefore, we do NOT all want to shoot the same person. Instead, we should all shoot the person below us on the playerlist, so that we keep everyone alive as long as possible. As long as we shoot the same person every Night, and No Lynch every Day, we should be able to get a much better layout of percentages before people start to die, and once they DO start to die, everyone won't die all at once.
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 3:14 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Another possible progression would be to do all of the above EXCEPT no lynching past D1, and simply lynch the person who was investigated the previous Night. If that person flips town, all of the people who received a guilty cannot be the cop (and may as well stop investigating), and if they flip scum, all of the people who got an innocent do that. This continues until the cop is located, and then we just play follow the cop with the randomized percentages telling us who the scum is.

I haven't run any numbers on the above, so it may not be viable. I'll get back to that later.

The more I think about it, the less I'm looking forward to moving forward on this game. At best, a dice roll determines who we "make" into scum, and at worst it becomes a popularity contest determining who wins and who gets forced into being scum and losing.
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Sat Aug 07, 2010 3:17 pm

Post by Parama »

Kairyuu wrote:Another realization:

If everyone shoots the same person, that person becomes 100% town (by virtue of the fact that all scenerios where that person is scumbuddies with anyone else are eliminated) AND 100% dead (by virtue of the fact that unless that person is the alpha scum, which is impossible because they're 100% town, they were just shot by the alpha scum, regardless of who it is). Therefore, we do NOT all want to shoot the same person. Instead, we should all shoot the person below us on the playerlist, so that we keep everyone alive as long as possible. As long as we shoot the same person every Night, and No Lynch every Day, we should be able to get a much better layout of percentages before people start to die, and once they DO start to die, everyone won't die all at once.
I agree with this 100%.
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