bussingIn post 3251, Psyche wrote: why does NAS jump onto hutao when/how he does if hutao is scum?
Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]
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You are always gonna be my love-
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because if hu tao says gera is clearIn post 3251, Psyche wrote: why doesn't scum-hutao clear gera during the massclaim when gera already reads as town to any gunsmith?
and kay says PC is clear
that leaves a POE of ari/titus only
that means the viable scum teams are:
ari+titus
hu tao + gera
kay + PC
with Psyche/RN conftown.
Nobody is going to lim Titus because need roleblocker.
so the next step is to lim either Hu Tao or Kay to "confirm" their investigative target.
if we lim hu tao, and hu tao flips mafia - gera dies at night game over
if we lim kay, PC becomes confirmed town, we shoot hu tao or gera at night - game over the next dayYou are always gonna be my love-
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it would explain why NAS didnt bother to read the wiki article if NAS just wanted an excuse to hop on to the wagon that he knew was on a mafiaIn post 3255, Psyche wrote: it probably wasn't hutao's strategy to get bussed but i guess we can imagine NAS thinking it was a good ideaYou are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3256, Political Clout wrote:In post 1626, Aristeia wrote:
this is NAS's only completed game on this site;In post 1625, davesaz wrote: KJQ comes across as town trying to find out alignments, where NAS feels like performative new not real new.
viewtopic.php?sid=&f=51&t=92263&user_select%5B%5D=37348
I see no indication he's not just a newbiethese 2 posts don't make sense.
did you miss this post that happened in between them;
In post 1637, Psyche wrote:
so notascum ended as the second biggest wagon of yesterday and was discussed at length as a potential scumread by tons of peopleIn post 1609, Aristeia wrote: do you even have a case for not a scum
but aristeia, who went out of her way to push through the naeyrs wagon through against a wealth of resistance, apparently did not notice anyone post reasons for voting NAS either 1) back when anyone made these posts, or 2) while reflecting on the outcome of Day and Night 1
aristeia even bothered to spend a post examining NAS's game history before peeking at even one post someone's made this game explainaing their NAS scumread
supposing this slot is town -- which i suppose is not certain! -- the amount of wasted effort here is breathtaking
where psyche basically says im breathtakingly stupid for not recognizing NAS is mafiaYou are always gonna be my love-
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mafia doctors are able to make nightkillsIn post 3254, Hu Tao wrote: Question. Is mafia doctor unable to do night kills? Is that why they have no gun?You are always gonna be my love-
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tldr i thought psyche was crumbing a result on NAS because he was so harsh to me so I thought hey maybe i should just shut up and sheep him
turns out he just didnt care about my opinion on the matterYou are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3260, Hu Tao wrote: Of course YOU would know that since you're mafia. (Just kidding thanks )You are always gonna be my love-
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yes i know thats why i am explaining the context to youIn post 3262, Political Clout wrote: yes I'm just reading iso'sYou are always gonna be my love-
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yes he did on the next page after my voteIn post 3265, Hu Tao wrote:
Did he not state he didn't have a guilty on NASIn post 3261, Aristeia wrote: tldr i thought psyche was crumbing a result on NAS because he was so harsh to me so I thought hey maybe i should just shut up and sheep him
turns out he just didnt care about my opinion on the matterYou are always gonna be my love-
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sureIn post 3270, Psyche wrote: now that you remind me i do still kind of think you purportedly not knowing of a case on NAS by that point remains somewhat suspiciousYou are always gonna be my love-
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yet when kay claims a PR you just claim yours fits in with hersIn post 3269, Hu Tao wrote: Yes. I didn't need to claim it right away because I didn't want scum to know that I was PR to give them the false sense of security to claim a PR and I figured I'd be able to back up my pr softs pretty easilyYou are always gonna be my love-
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everyone had already claimed by the time you claimed gunsmithIn post 3274, Hu Tao wrote:
If I was scum I'd have to bank on the fact that town didn't have a gunsmith. Which was likely with mafia doctor and vig.In post 3271, Psyche wrote: if hutao is scum she definitely was planning the gist of her fakeclaim kind of early. ive gotta remember to do that next time im scumYou are always gonna be my love-
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eyerollIn post 3277, Hu Tao wrote: Yeah because once she said n2 I believed it since mine was n1. I actually assumed that there would be a n2 something. I thought it was vigilante at first since there was no vigilante kill n1You are always gonna be my love-
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that's not how balancing a normal worksYou are always gonna be my love-
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I'm p sure Datisi has never modded a mini normal with 5 TPRs [I don't count miller as a TPR]In post 3282, Political Clout wrote: we should look at mod's other games to see if there is this sort of n1 n2 pattern in other games and also for gera's claim that he didn't know that role even existed.You are always gonna be my love-
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I guess I just think its really obvious that too many TPRs got claimed and this game is solved if people just bothered to look at how game balance works instead of whatever they are currently doing but I guess I might be biased because I know I'm town so I should be less mean about it and just take up astrology instead.You are always gonna be my love-
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You are always gonna be my love-
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I am currently searching for a bluish green shirtYou are always gonna be my love-
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I just don't believe Kay's role as claimed makes any sense because whether Kay's target is dead or alive is completely random as she has claimed and that seems like a very weird swing that is ???In post 3293, Psyche wrote: here swing seems a bigger questionmark than power but i wonder how you're parsing this dynamic
I am extremely good at confbiasing myself on details like this and not being openminded about what could or can't be possible so I know I can be totally wrong about this.You are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3294, KayJayQueue wrote:In post 3292, Aristeia wrote: I am currently searching for a bluish green shirtjust type in this color for the rest of the daythanks it's so pretty I luv itYou are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3296, Political Clout wrote: viewtopic.php?t=88709 5 prs in this game? I'm not sure if I would count backups?
from the 6 mini's only that one had 5?
the backup vig in that setup is basically like a "miller" for the gunsmith but doesnt know they're a millerYou are always gonna be my love-
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one of you must be mafia thenIn post 3299, Hu Tao wrote:
To be fair I was also townreading daveIn post 3281, Political Clout wrote: doesn't kjq seem a bit too informed or is that just me? like they were townreading dave when almost no one else was.You are always gonna be my love-
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you're claiming that if you're scum you'd have to bank on the town not having a gunsmith - except you claimed last after everyone else did so I'm not sure that's the risk you'r'e making it out to beYou are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3304, KayJayQueue wrote: I did everything I could without quoting the private message with Datisi that you requested. I asked exactly what you told me to and I gave you the answers I received. I don’t know how you think I would be able to fake those answers if you don’t even think I understand how the game works. I gave you all the information I received from my role and from my messages with the mod. You’re just choosing to not believe me, which is fine, but then why ask me to ask the mod if you don’t care about the answers?You did nothing wrong Kay, if you're town the fault is with me entirely for my bad assumptionsYou are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3290, Psyche wrote: basically i screwed up by targetting titus last night by not fully understanding the extent to which commitment to my strategy is broken by scum choosing not to kill
ari's version where i say i will shoot titus but then don't had a higher EV
I am sorry I gave you so much shit for shooting Titus.
I just thought I had made it really clear you shouldn't shoot her yesterday and you did it anyway and it tilted me because I thought you weren't paying attention to anything I was saying and I spent a lot of time and effort to try to get you to make a different choice.
I've definitely made worse mistakes before and I shouldn't have lashed out at you - it's just a game and I shouldn't be doing anything to make your enjoyment of the game worse
you're right that I've been rude, mean, and abusive at times in this game and I should not be - I will try not to be in the futureYou are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3310, KayJayQueue wrote: Yeah yeah I get you felt a way about that but I’m not sorry for holding onto that info and not letting scum understand my thought process. I’m sorry you didn’t agree with how I played it but I felt I gave more than enough information at the time. And it feels like damned if you do, damned if you don’t when it comes to having townreads. You end up being right? Oh well you already knew. You’re wrong? Oh you were just covering for your team. You can twist almost any outcome in the game to someone being scum or town if you try hard enough.Kay the reason I suspected you over Hu Tao is because the way mass claim in a 13p is supposed to go at the end is that one mafia pretends to be a VT and another mafia pretends to be a Power Role in order to cast doubt into both groups. The way it was done was to over-jam too many fake PR claims which is like really bad play. I think Hu Tao knows better than to do that but I could just be completely wrong about this because right now Hu Tao doesn't seem like she even knows that too many PRs have been claimed so if she wouldn't know that regardless of her role pmYou are always gonna be my love-
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In post 3343, KayJayQueue wrote: Just please make the right choice tomorrow, I’m sorry I wasn’t more of a help. But at this point I feel like you have all my information and all of my opinions.
I kinda want to think kay is just town actuallyYou are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Like Hu Tao feels a lot more enthusiastic about solving/fighting to the end and that's usually townie but I just feel Kay is like honest in how she talks.You are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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I might be like substituting my own feelings about who I'd rather have on my team for like an accurate read there - I'm not the best at reading AtE but Kay just feels like honest to me.You are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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well I was wrong about that part of the read on you because it's not based on what you would do - it's based on what I thought scum!hu tao wouldn't do - so the fact that Hu Tao seems to have no idea how these mechs work means I'm just flat out wrong about how she would've played this as scum because if she's town she clearly doesn't know how this works.In post 3357, KayJayQueue wrote: I don’t. Ari is right to say I don’t know as much as everyone else because I’m new, she’s just wrong when she said I was making “new player” decisions as scum. I want to be helpful, I’ve been answering questions directed toward me but beyond that, I don’t know what to do.You are always gonna be my love-
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I can't help townreading people with puppyeyes who sound so earnestYou are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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like forget about Datisi's mod meta for mini normals - I'm p sure not a single mini normal has ever been run with 5 positive ev town power roles ever on this site because it just seems like way too much power.You are always gonna be my love-
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the reason I keep harping on this point is that its something you should be able to observe for yourself through an analysis of completed mini normal games and it doesn't hinge on my alignment at all.You are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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like if you have time to spend reading this game for like four hours trying to find one tell here or there it would be much easier for you if you simply pulled up a bunch of mini normals and look at what balance actually looks like and that should lead you to the right answer.You are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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another reason I'm starting to sour on Hu Tao is because while Kay might not be experienced enough to understand site meta I kind of think Hu Tao should be able to figure it out, she feels like she's just willfully ignoring it atp.You are always gonna be my love-
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I guess the one good thing about being eliminated today is that tomorrow will be entertainingYou are always gonna be my love-
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it would be funny to see hu tao and kay try to act like they are the one who was betrayed
i'm conflicted because that might be more entertaining than trying to get a win by like surviving to the end.You are always gonna be my love-
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it feels like we can never get on the same page psycheYou are always gonna be my love-
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imagine if Naerys was just staring down disapprovingly at us from Heaven as she watched Hu Tao get away with murder smhYou are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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I think she was a lot more passionate in this game than the Bird Species game and maybe thats one of the reasons I was just wrong about her for most of today since she really seems to want to win this one.In post 3394, Random Nurse wrote: Starting ti feel thus is Scum Tao.
Scum Tao desperately tries to get players to vote others, just like in the Bird Species game.You are always gonna be my love-
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if you have a teammate looking like they r going to get speedyeeted super fast why wouldnt you jump on to bus?In post 3397, Psyche wrote: did you see that VC that PC posted? do you think NAS and gera were both in on the bussing? that's quite a commitment...You are always gonna be my love-
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yea that's what I'm thinking nowIn post 3398, Random Nurse wrote:In post 3396, Aristeia wrote:
I think she was a lot more passionate in this game than the Bird Species game and maybe thats one of the reasons I was just wrong about her for most of today since she really seems to want to win this one.In post 3394, Random Nurse wrote: Starting ti feel thus is Scum Tao.
Scum Tao desperately tries to get players to vote others, just like in the Bird Species game.
She could "really want to win this one" as the last Scum, too.You are always gonna be my love-
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In post 70, geraintm wrote:
VOTE: random nurseIn post 54, Hu Tao wrote:
Cook him, bestie!In post 14, Dannflor wrote:In post 11, Random Nurse in this game wrote: I wonder what kind of heat Scum's packing this game.In post 11, Random Nurse in Mini Normal 2317 wrote: I'm surprised there's an IC in this game, so Scum is probably packing heat?
VOTE: KeyLaga
VOTE: Random Nurse
VOTE: Random NurseIn post 71, geraintm wrote: Because it will be funny as fuck to do it twice in a row!
like why can't this be gera+hu tao deciding to go full openwolf all in on an RN lim on page 3?You are always gonna be my love-
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yes I know you don't know setup mech as well as I do.In post 3402, Psyche wrote: i know it'spossiblethey were bussing or calculating that hutao would live but im just doubting it. it's a...discountable possibility
and i dont know setup stuff as well as you guys but i trust the reasoning enough to discount that you are scum
this poe is the fruit of our labor
but setup mech is something that exists outside of this game that you can research. Like pull up some of the completed mini normals and check how many towns have the potential to generate four clears by day 3. I really doubt you will find a single one because it's simply incredibly unbalanced.
I am only bringing it up because I think if you understood it then this would be a very simple and easy decision for you but I can't make you do it.
if you prefer I can do the analysis myself and compile it in a spreadsheet to share with you but then you'd be counting on me doing the work.You are always gonna be my love-
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ok if you trust the logic about setup balance it doesn't matter who it is between kay and hu tao because we have 2 limsIn post 3421, Psyche wrote: i trust you on this! 100%!
now if only we could agree that between hutao and kay it is...
you just have to believe I'm town and we are going to win as long as I don't get limmedYou are always gonna be my love-
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this desperation from hu tao feels townieYou are always gonna be my love-
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because this setup can't have five town power rolesIn post 3444, Hu Tao wrote: Why is Ari town?
i have already explained it to you like eleven timesYou are always gonna be my love-
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it is objectiveIn post 3450, Psyche wrote: darn it
so do i
how can it be that hutao and ari disagree about this
i was told that setup spec is an objective science in this scenario
you can check yourself
there are hundreds of completed mini normalsYou are always gonna be my love-
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ok find a 13p where its possible for town to have four clears on day threeIn post 3452, Hu Tao wrote: So no complex mini has had 5 pr? And if I find one, we can change your minds?You are always gonna be my love-
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we might just have different ideas of what balance is or she just doesn't know.In post 3457, Psyche wrote: is hutao lying then? aghhh no plsYou are always gonna be my love-
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gob (Eliminated Day 1) - Vanilla TownIn post 3462, Hu Tao wrote: viewtopic.php?t=92020
This game had 4 pr and scum had a 1 shot pr and 2 goons. This game mafia already had 2 stronger scum roles. Why is it crazy for us to have 5 pr?
ssbm_kyouko (Killed Night 1) - Vanilla Town
SirCakez (Eliminated Day 2) - Vanilla Town
AnimatedWiz (Killed Night 2) - Town Rolecop
Roden (Eliminated Day 3) - Town 1-Shot Bulletproof
Thomith (Killed Night 3) - Town Jailkeeper
Hu Tao (Eliminated Day 4) - Vanilla Town
Flavor Leaf (Endgamed Day 4) - Vanilla Town
Dunnstral (Endgamed Day 4) - Vanilla Town
Celebloki (Endgamed Day 4) - Town Neapolitan
bulletproof doesnt generate clears
jailkeeper doesnt generate clears
rolecop doesnt generate clears
neapo is the only role that generates clearsYou are always gonna be my love-
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the max number of clears that can be generated in that game by day three is like 2You are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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town prs are:
mason
informed miller neighbor
informed joat neighbor
mason
mailman
so that's two clears and only three +EV roles
I don't think miller or mailman really give +town advantage depending on what the information the miller hasYou are always gonna be my love-
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false clear is (1/12)In post 3475, Hu Tao wrote: My 1 shot is very swingy as already stated and could give us false clear or false guilty
false guilty is (1/12) and vig can prove his identity
so 10/12 the info is useful
when setups get balanced they are balanced to make sure what happens most of the time is not unplayable for one side or the otherYou are always gonna be my love-
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I agree that is a very unlikely thing to happen and makes almost no sense to me why she would do that because it narrows her own POEIn post 3478, Hu Tao wrote: What are the odds that Kay scum clears PC though? Instead of just claiming something like VT?You are always gonna be my love-
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the working theory I have in my head for why Kay claimed informed of ___ as being town is because she looked up what an informed townie knows in the wiki and faked it because Gera told her to just true-claim but she couldn't claim her actual information because its probably something like the IC is bulletproof.
I have absolutely no idea why she wouldn't just claim vanilla townie instead if she is mafia other than because she didn't know any better about what to claim.
it is not a satisfying answerYou are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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there's lots of things that don't make sense to me in this game
like why did hu tao decide to self vote and say to yeet naerys on d2 if hu tao is a gun smith
like why did kjq decide hu tao must be town
i don't really know a lot of answers to these questions - people do strange things. But I do know how setup balance works and you just can't have a setup where town gets four clears on day three because its basically unplayable for mafia and it would never get past review.
you can check that this is true by looking up every mini normal ever completed on this site.You are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10219
- Joined: July 17, 2021
- Pronoun: She
like one of you two is mafia who knows they need to yeet me today to have a 1 v 1 tommorrow
and the other one is just town who is pocketed.You are always gonna be my love-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10219
- Joined: July 17, 2021
- Pronoun: She