Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Dannflor]

for the homies

[Dannflor]

I wonder what kind of heat Scum's packing this game.

I'm surprised there's an IC in this game, so Scum is probably packing heat?

VOTE: KeyLaga

Afrayed Knott

Random Nurse

,

Mafia Goon

, executed Day 3

VOTE: Random Nurse

[Dannflor]

That's

your reasoning for voting me this game?

well, the history + I don't see a town motivation for posting that thought

[Dannflor]

zzz

[Dannflor]

I also think I'm more weary of scum being off that wagon. Scum knew RN was town so they probably soft defended to gain townie points

there were only like 2 slots that defended random nurse, why are you voting notascum as opposed to looking at them

[Dannflor]

VOTE: hu tao

[Dannflor]

why am i town political clout

[Dannflor]

hu tao i'm struggling to believe your confidence in your notascum read is real

i don't understand the difference between notascum's entrance and KJQ's entrance for one

[Dannflor]

why am i town political clout

I liked you going after rn showed chutzpah. I liked it. Am I wrong?

do you have the idea that i wouldn't show chutzpah as scum?

[Dannflor]

@Dann can I get a decent summary of what you're currently thinking about Political Clout

i've been pretty reserved in my posting so far and i think it's reasonable to assume my initial push on RN may have had nefarious intentions, so it feels mildly TMI to try to build a town coalition with me in it

i hoped PC's reason for town reading me would be something a little deeper than that I "showed chutzpah" because i'm not sure that's alignment indicative unless you have very specific meta on a player

93 and 125 both feel kind of performative in how they are written

im wary of the way 126 is trying to take control of the gamestate

that's about the extent of my thoughts so far

[Dannflor]

maybe

[Dannflor]

not helping the "more focused on selling yourself as genuine than finding scum" accusations

[Dannflor]

She's contradicting herself. She does this as scum. She literally I'd saying the thing she did as town last game is now scummy when I do it.

how often do you think this type of contradiction actually catches scum

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

[Dannflor]

klick can you talk about your psyche town read

[Dannflor]

VOTE: naerys

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

[Dannflor]

VOTE: hu tao

[Dannflor]

Like this kind of behavior is very self-focused and you're not that self-focused when your wincon is attached to two other known players

that just seems to assume hu tao is a specific brand of scum player

i don't think that's generally true about scum players

[Dannflor]

why is davesaz probably town

[Dannflor]

If I'm being honest I would self vote as scum but probably wouldn't say the stuff I'm saying in terms of getting Naerys tomorrow. So I can see how that's manipulative now. Sorry and this wasn't my intention and I won't do it again in the future. I should see how other perspective would see it, not just myself. Now I feel bad.

UNVOTE:

you are telling me you had 0 idea your self-vote and "trade deal" case would cause some people to town read you and thus want to unvote you?

because i would find it more believable that you were intentionally being manipulative as town than that you actually believed that if you self voted and died that people would sheep your case on naerys. you actually believe the case is that strong?? you actually believe people care about dead townie's reads?? have you ever seen a situation like that happen before?

like you just said that last game you spent like 3 day phases calling naerys scum before anyone would listen to. what makes you think anyone would listen to you after you died?

[Dannflor]

blah

[Dannflor]

you're being very reasonable post-selfvote hu tao

[Dannflor]

From what I’ve picked up and observed, I just don’t think Hu Tao is a good vote right now. I don’t have an alternative yet but I just don’t think Hu Tao is worth killing today after everything that’s been said.

I'd like you to explain what specifically made you think this when you return to thread

[Dannflor]

i think they both lean towny

[Dannflor]

And on that point, if we did vote Hu, is it wrong to consider their position during the next day phase? IF they are proven town, wouldn’t their opinions/ideas be worth revisiting instead of ignoring? Personally and it may just be me, I do believe I’d care about the opinion of someone dead if they were confirmed good. Now, all that being said, would I be taking the wrong approach in that scenario? And if so, why? I ask this genuinely because I do want to be cautious in my line of thinking, especially so I don’t get tunnel vision believing someone is or isn’t town.

my point was more about what realistically happens in mafia games than what is the "correct" play or not. generally i find people who play mafia are more interested in their own individual reads to dead sheep someone like that unless they have a significant reputation for having accurate reads

whether it's correct approach or not depends on a lot of factors that can't really be generalized

[Dannflor]

hu tao i also feel like the actions behind your naerys scum read don't match up to how you're treating the read now

it seems like you had close to 100% confidence and now naerys is just "scummy" and you're mostly talking about other stuff now and you're not even voting there...? like why is this read still not the most interesting thing in the game to you if you were willing to die for it

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

[Dannflor]

I've started playing the Outer Wilds DLC and it's a blast

outer wilds is my favorite game ever

[Dannflor]

I think i’d rather not kill hu tao or naerys today

[Dannflor]

VOTE: geraint

[Dannflor]

I think i’d rather not kill hu tao or naerys today

Why not Naerys?

I think her frustration seems genuine

[Dannflor]

KJQ, do you have opinions on other slots?

[Dannflor]

i would also say scum are usually more careful about not contradicting themselves

[Dannflor]

tbh i could argue that D1 is the least crapshooty day

[Dannflor]

VOTE: psyche

why

[Dannflor]

VOTE: kayjayqueue

[Dannflor]

VOTE: kayjayqueue

I don't see this at all

I think if naerys and hu tao are town v town then KJQ very much fits the profile of scum i am expecting

I think her tone has been decently towny but i think her posts are much more driven by fear of optics than fear of being wrong

[Dannflor]

VOTE: geraint

[Dannflor]

Re-reading Dannflor, I can move him up to the townlean tier.

I’m curious why?

[Dannflor]

aristeia isn't really playing this like I'd expect scum to play this

[Dannflor]

he’s gonna super duper activate his innocent child

[Dannflor]

rereading naerys vs hu tao and it just feels like two townies who desperately believe they are Correct

[Dannflor]

aristeia goes from pushing one (hu tao) to the other (naerys) without much fanfare, which i think is indicative of genuinely just trying to figure them both out and isn’t exactly great optics for scum

If I’m right about hu tao and naerys being TvT i would expect scum to be either not engaging much with the conflict at all, or taking a much more static and/or one-sided approach to the 1v1

[Dannflor]

the thing about gera is he can put out substantially more content than this D1 as both alignments

however, i do think he’s more prone to leaning on his “d1 sux” schtick and talking about that schtick to subsidize his content as scum. i think he’s been a little over explainy about his actions instead of just owning them

[Dannflor]

I think I’m seeing the KJQ town reads now

Still not quite as confident as some of you seem to be though

[Dannflor]

It’s kinda whack psyche doesn’t like interact with the hu tao v naerys debacle like one bit

i mean besides being vaguely annoyed by melodrama

[Dannflor]

the page provides an entire system for classifying self-votes and explains in detail how each type of self vote could come from scum

or

from town.

then the only sentence from which it can be gleaned that anyone thinks self-voting is a scumtell is:
"While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell."
this is arguably the most disapproving way that a writer could conceivably share that information without openly abandoning wikipedia's editorial guidelines

but someone clinging to the mafia wiki for dear life took the exact opposite message home?
it does not pass the smell test

i dont know this feels like a genre of case i would make as scum

like it’s so logical that it misses the illogical ideas that

1) the wiki link being posted was clearly just a cute rhetorical point

2) people dont actually read

[Dannflor]

I worry that the minute I give my opinion on my gut feeling on a few I am strongly feeling are town, I’m going to get responses that say “oh I’ve played with them before, they do this as scum” “don’t pay attention to that” etc etc. I feel like I’m the only one that can’t offer any meta and therefore I’ll never have the full picture that others seem to have. It’s slightly alienating but I’m trying to keep up.

1. No one has the full picture
2. Posts like these are half the reason i can’t seem to comfortably town read KJQ. I feel like she keeps reiterating that she is alienated and confused and struggling to make reads, but i also dont actually feel that anxiety in her posting. I don’t really know how else to explain it

[Dannflor]

rereading naerys vs hu tao and it just feels like two townies who desperately believe they are Correct

If this becomes the majority consensus, I better start rereading this thread because I focused way too much of my energy on figuring out who I believed on the Hu vs Naerys drama just to realize I should’ve been paying more attention to psyche’s read on NAS or the 3 votes on gera that happened in quick succession.

Oh and like idk

What is stopping you just clicking psyche’s ISO or the post i just quoted and seeing what you think about it right now?

it feels performative to talk about all the work you gotta do or that you might have to do or that you should’ve done before because if you’re town and genuinely interested in solving, i don’t get why your energies aren’t just focused on doing the solving now

pedit: drew (titus’ predecessor) made posts! What do you think of those??

[Dannflor]

eh i guess i believe psyche believes in their case on NAS

[Dannflor]

Doctor Drew felt very one dimensional

[Dannflor]

I understand being anxious. Also, please feel free to ask questions and ask about game terms and also to change your mind and be uncertain. No one is going to get annoyed.

to be frank, my issue right now is that I can’t distinguish whether you are town too anxious about being wrong, or mafia using that as a front to look good

[Dannflor]

I’m going to be sad if the scum team is something like geraint/Titus/KJQ

[Dannflor]

okay like who is the scum playing around naerys being obstinate and selfvoting

like who is bussing her

davesaz?? idk i dont see it

[Dannflor]

I’m going to be sad if the scum team is something like geraint/Titus/KJQ

I think I just wanna lim in this pool today though

[Dannflor]

I think I’ll find you as town if you are town

I don’t want to make this game not fun for you and I’m sorry if you’re feeling that way

I’ll lay off you I just wanted to express how I’m reading you because it looks like I’m the only person in the game reading you that way

anyway if you’d like to talk about other slots im happy to do that

[Dannflor]

for what it’s worth i suddenly feel better about you

[Dannflor]

yeah i mean i could vote NAS too

[Dannflor]

for what it’s worth i suddenly feel better about you

Why?

i think KJQ's reaction to my pressure was towny

[Dannflor]

However, why is your vote not there?

my vote is on geraintm.

[Dannflor]

actually political clout seems like scum

[Dannflor]

if i were to put together a reads list, it would look something like this:

{Klick, kayjayqueue, hu tao}
{Psyche, davesaz, naerys}
{aristeia}
{NotAScum, Titus}
{Political Clout, geraintm}

[Dannflor]

yes shot

[Dannflor]

don't mind them guys they drank some hatorade this morning. I was thinking it might be aristea way back when I made my dumb prediction post at work because I had nothing better to do then someone quoted wait dr. drew I think that would scum make that post and quoted aristea lke idk third post or something I'm hard guessing. but klick also quoted it way back. anyways I was thinking nah scum don't make that post. then I was thinking I haven't seen them then I started reading back and saw that they were going after gera now. It felt WEIRD. that's where I'm at with aristea.

the post seems to stem more from PC wanting to show off their natural stream of consciousness thought process than having a genuine read on aristea that PC wants to share

[Dannflor]

yeah no shot

[Dannflor]

that's not my issue with that post

[Dannflor]

you're nitpicking and biased bai bai

[Dannflor]

i don't think it's nitpicking to read a post as performative

[Dannflor]

swap me and titus

[Dannflor]

VOTE: political clout

[Dannflor]

i don't think it's nitpicking to read a post as performative

Alright let's say I agree with you. And let's say that a statical analysis was done and it was determined yes that post was performative. I ask you to what end? To not to give a read on her? Gun to my head she is probably scum. Because the whole point of the being performative was that you wanted to make your next contention that I didn't want to give a read on her. Which imo was your main point. So where are we now I gave you my read on her

my point was not that you didn't want to give a read on her, my point was that it didn't seem like the post was driven from the town motivation of either

1) having a read you want to share
2) engaging with people about a read in order to deduce people's alignments

my point was that it's the type of post made to show off your thought process and look towny

idk, it's a genre of post I see scum making a lot because it looks like it's doing something but idk what your actual motivation was to post that if you're town

i don't really care that you scum read Aristeia and it doesn't really seem like you care about that either

[Dannflor]

I don't really understand why gera is bottom tier for you Dann
Is it 'this player is scum with NAS and possibly scum even without NAS'?

a lack of better scum reads largely

and yeah i see a few more worlds where NAS is town

the difference between my bottom four isn't super distinct

[Dannflor]

psyche you should vote clout

[Dannflor]

im not saying aristeia is definitely town but she is perfectly capable of faking a trajectory and looking towny

if you're voting someone for just following wagons im not sure why you'd vote aristeia over geraintm who has had a lot of support as a wagon already

[Dannflor]

thinking about it, im actually kinda less gungho about geraintm being scum because of this maybe mistaken idea that I have that scum would be bussing geraintm at this point if he was scum, and I don't really think either Klick or Aristeia are scum bussing

Naerys [4]: Hu Tao, Naerys, Random Nurse, davesaz
geraintm [3]: Klick, Dannflor, Aristeia
Hu Tao [2]: NotAScum, geraintm
NotAScum [2]: Psyche, Titus
Psyche [1]: Political Clout

not voting [1]: KayJayQueue

In a game state like this, assuming naerys and geraintm are both town (which I admit is a lot of assumptions) i think it's reasonable to expect scum to be very content and off the leading wagons completely - pushing their little vanity wagons and/or safely distancing

as such i shall make the bold claim that scum is exactly [NotAScum, Titus, Political Clout]

game solved

[Dannflor]

for why

[Dannflor]

i really can’t comprehend how people are classing this or naerys as scummier than notascum

notascum is clearly town.

this is me asking you about that

[Dannflor]

I'm feeling this Random Nurse guy is probably a town. Don't ask me how I deduced that.

either he is the best newb scum player in the world or he has no idea what is going on in this game.

maybe you just can't read humor

[Dannflor]

genuinely think it's scum indicative for political clout to take that post seriously btw

[Dannflor]

i don't think you're thinking critically about that post or notascum's alignment

[Dannflor]

i have ulterior motives

[Dannflor]

i love quote depth competitions

[Dannflor]

I'm just being snippy don't mind me

[Dannflor]

let’s order the playerlist by how good they are as scum and eliminate down the line

[Dannflor]

I’d be okay with switching to titus

[Dannflor]

i don't really understand the concept of titus being "bait from scum"

meaning scum are pushing titus as a miselim option? who is doing this?

[Dannflor]

oh maybe it just means like a distraction

[Dannflor]

do you think she doesn't respond to me saying she's chainsawing for PC if they're actually S/S ?

I was thinking it over in my head and I thought maybe she wants the wagon to go through if he's town because she doesn't have any need to fight to defend him if he's town whereas if he's scum she shouldn't just afk it?

I don't really have any familiarity with how PC plays I'm mostly just sheeping your read. I thought you made p good points about him being mafia but it's kind of murky with how the game state is.

yeah it's hard to say when we have a wagon stalled on a self-voter who has stopped playing the game

like... i think it's possible titus/PC could be S/S and titus just thinks the naerys wagon is like the most likely wagon in the game to go through and doesn't want to disrupt that status quo overmuch

not sure how much I believe that because the only real movement in the game is being caused by me/you/klick right now and that I would hope that feels threatening enough to outweigh whatever is going on with naerys right now

[Dannflor]

my god random nurse

there is resistance to the naerys wagon because she's town and scum don't want to look shitty for hopping on the wagon of the easy self-voting target

[Dannflor]

like a vast majority of the time scum aren't going to want to pile onto a wagon on town like that because it looks like it'll go through without them

[Dannflor]

re: titus and PC

on one hand i feel it's natural to say something concrete in defense of PC if he is town and one is scum trying to get credit from this situation

on the other hand you do make a good point about titus just leaving the chainsawing remark hanging there and that's not super intuitive if this is S/S

idk, I feel mildly more strongly about PC as scum but if you feel significantly better about Titus I would move there. I think I feel best about eliminating one of them today

[Dannflor]

klick can you come sort this out

[Dannflor]

sorry i did not have a good answer to your question ari

[Dannflor]

i think you'll find Town does do that

frequently

[Dannflor]

you want to eliminate her because she hasn't jumped through your hoops, that doesn't make me confident that your scum read has a high chance of being accurate

[Dannflor]

I'm not spending three pages arguing with you. Until I see aggressive posting, you're just scum to me.

ari can easily be aggressive as scum

[Dannflor]

it is weird to me to be like “do this to be town” as if ari could not replicate that as scum

[Dannflor]

I expect town Dan to see I'm town.

do you genuinely believe i should be reading you as town by this point?

[Dannflor]

it feels like half the player list doesn't care to play

[Dannflor]

Give me one example of it happening in scum chats before

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=79493
viewtopic.php?f=90&t=90033&p=13529183#p13529183
viewtopic.php?f=90&t=80123&p=11045692#p11045692

[Dannflor]

we don't have newbie games anymore

NAS is a newbie

[Dannflor]

pretty disturbed by hu tao jumping off the 5 vote naerys wagon to join the 3 vote political clout wagon thinking about it

[Dannflor]

like i don't get why you don't want to kill naerys anymore hu tao, what changed

[Dannflor]

I'm fine with Naerys or PC. I still prefer Naerys

VOTE: PC

While I think that Naerys is still a good Elim, I think PC is a good Elim too.

The resistance to Naerys wagon is getting difficult to ignore.

I’m thinking Naerys is scum and her partners are trying to prevent her launch.

We can get Naerys later. Jump on PC

Naerys, NotAScum, Ari, Gera, PC, Dann. I still believe all 3 scum are in here. For today I'm willing to temporarily remove Ari, but will be back in this list tomorrow.

I actually really want NotAScum today. Idk if everyone else will want that though. I'm fine with PC or Naerys compromise

like i don't get this progression

especially when it originated as "IM SELFVOTING KILL ME TO KILL 100% SCUM NAERYS TOMORROW"

[Dannflor]

the paranoid part of me would think that maybe you don't think flipping naerys looks very good for you

[Dannflor]

If that were true I feel like they’d have pulled back before today, since Naerys was so close to elimination a few days ago.

well, the situation has changed somewhat with naerys going from hard tunneling hu tao back to self voting and doing nothing

[Dannflor]

You’re right. But that only makes me more confused about what naerys is doing.

my point is more the optics of hard pushing someone who is hard pushing you back are a lot better than hard pushing someone who has given up and self voted

but i don't understand why hu tao would care about that if the certainty of her scum read on naerys still remains

[Dannflor]

like i don't get why you don't want to kill naerys anymore hu tao, what changed

Well this is false. I literally said I still would be okay with Naerys but it has stalled

okay, but would you agree your enthusiasm for that lim has lessened?

[Dannflor]

Also I want to add to this. If you're getting this thought why are you still on PC? Wouldn't that make you think PC could be town? The reason I don't think this is a real reason is cause I would expect you to unvote or switch votes.

I just had these concerns and wanted to see how you'd react to me stating them

I don't know how much I believe in them or not right now

[Dannflor]

This makes no sense from you. If I was worried about that why would I put myself at e-1 knowing I could flip

this is a non sequitor

i don't know what your self-vote has to do with me wondering if you thought it would look bad to stay on the naerys wagon

[Dannflor]

klick im around for a bit if you want to talk about anything

[Dannflor]

although I don't share your optimism that this game is super solvable right now

[Dannflor]

I don't think scum have had much impetus to do much

[Dannflor]

i also lean naerys as town

I think with the self-vote + IC pushing it that wagon is going to be like radioactive material for scum

[Dannflor]

i also lean naerys as town

I think with the self-vote + IC pushing it that wagon is going to be like radioactive material for scum

Just making sure, you're saying you think scum are avoiding the Naerys wagon?

that's what I would assume if naerys is town

[Dannflor]

naerys' current state is pretty unreadable, I guess she could give up and act like this as either alignment. And I'm not really following the emotional thread as to why she's so frustrated

I thought early game she seemed combative like she was in Frienemies, but she never gave up like this even when being shitpushed by Ranger

[Dannflor]

it's just KJQ talking about how they find Hu townier than naerys

[Dannflor]

okay so if naerys self-voted as scum, how are her teammates likely to react?

[Dannflor]

I'm not really entertaining hu tao/naerys as SvS, I think that's kind of ridiculous and the frustration from both sides seems real enough and... sloppy enough? that I doubt it is theatre

[Dannflor]

okay so if naerys self-voted as scum, how are her teammates likely to react?

this is an open question, but my thought is that scum are likely to bus because naerys looks really bad off that plus the IC starts pushing it pretty hard

Naerys [5]: Hu Tao, Naerys, Random Nurse, davesaz, geraintm

which would mean there's likely scum in davesaz/geraintm imo

[Dannflor]

I'm just gonna be honest. If I was scum, I wouldn't try to just hard eliminate someone like this day 1. Seems icky and not fair to them and doesnt allow them to play the game. But I know it's self meta so no one will believe me.

i guess i kinda believe this post which would make hu tao either town or svs with naerys

[Dannflor]

are you willing to un-selfvote and play, naerys

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

[Dannflor]

If she's scum she was responding to a standard amount of pressure that she would be prepared to face as scum

consider posts like 177 and 179

i think there could be an element of "caught for the wrong reasons" frustration if scum

[Dannflor]

I think ari might be scum. She is pushing the Naerys/me narrative because she knows Naerys is gonna flip scum. And knows that they can't nk me because of my self vote to e-1 they know on VT. So only way to get rid of me is to tie me to Naerys

i don't think this is a narrative or agenda ari is pushing

she admitted it was probably statistically unlikely and weak, it reads like her trying to make sense of naerys' actions

[Dannflor]

think dann is town. kind of curious why hu tao keeps him in her pool

He's good as scum. Can look towny

ugh

[Dannflor]

maybe I just want to kill NotAScum idk

[Dannflor]

klick what is your read on dave

[Dannflor]

what is everybody's read on dave

[Dannflor]

i am happy to work with you!!

but not if your definition of working with you is to vote who you want or else

im happy to engage with you

[Dannflor]

I've been trying to engage with you by explaining where I disagree with your takes and you have taken that as I don't want to work with you

[Dannflor]

VOTE: notascum for now

[Dannflor]

sorry klick i don't really vibe with your read on him at all

I think tunneling on one slot in a rather isolated fashion is a rather common strategy for scum to employ. it makes it easy to make real looking posts without having to expend a lot of energy. i think 910 feels more like a question scum would ask than town would ask

[Dannflor]

I suspect you may be Town so I want to bounce ideas off you, you know, that whole trust thing Klick keeps talking incessantly about. I'm open to listening to your ideas, provided you are open to listening to mine.

I'll try to be less dismissive

[Dannflor]

is it too whiny and persecution complexy to suggest ive been ignored re notascum? maybe ok more than maybe

i will vote with you here

[Dannflor]

whoops

[Dannflor]

i will vote with you, psyche, here*

[Dannflor]

hold on

I'm feeling this Random Nurse guy is probably a town. Don't ask me how I deduced that.

hey NAS was this a joke?

[Dannflor]

Part of me thinks a Naerys launch would yield much more data on player exchanges.

I want to see what naerys does when she comes back to thread

[Dannflor]

do you mean burden of proficiency?

[Dannflor]

do you have scum reads, klick

[Dannflor]

My best guess is that a Klick kill was more about setting up 2 or more mislims than it was about him having good reads.

what makes you think that

[Dannflor]

I think reading hu tao as trying to stroke RN’s ego is an uncharitable interpretation

[Dannflor]

klick was one of the strongest proponents of hu tao vs naerys being TvT and im inclined to sheep that

[Dannflor]

If Klick was vigged, Dannflor is likely scum.

if cows were horses we wouldn’t have milk

[Dannflor]

VOTE: titus

[Dannflor]

VOTE: titus

I think you're still on the wrong track here

no offense but i don't think highly of your reads this game

[Dannflor]

i'll kill not a scum too

I don't think Ari is scum

[Dannflor]

If Klick was vigged, Dannflor is likely scum.

if cows were horses we wouldn’t have milk

Interesting omgus. You aren't an idiot, so why are you voting me?

i think klick being a vigilante kill is kind of fairy land make believe world and i think you beginning the day with analysis based on that world is much more likely to come from scum than someone with genuine thoughts on the game

[Dannflor]

ari's vote was clearly spurned out of RN explicitly telling people to vote naerys or else, it's only "quick" because NAS hammered so quickly after

I don't think buddies ever make a quick hammer look that coordinated and obvious

I do think NAS is scummy and the quick hammer is interesting considering he was the only competing wagon

[Dannflor]

I've never seen Ari act like this before. Any one else?

that is not a good way to read people

i am also frustrated with RN but i promised to be nice

[Dannflor]

OOOH GOT HER

[Dannflor]

oh my fucking god lay off

the gotcha questions are not helping you catch scum

[Dannflor]

Why is Klick vig shot fairy land?
Why aren't you concerned about how I reached that conclusion? Because you already know.

klick was widely town read and i think an obstacle to scum, i think it makes more sense to assume scum were more threatened by klick than RN, or found RN more useful than Klick, then that a vig killed Klick

I am concerned with how you reached that conclusion, it's why I voted you

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

sorry titus i was annoyed this morning, I'll try to give you a proper response and summarize my thoughts later today

[Dannflor]

ok so my hesitation with NotAScum is that I think Political Clout is scum and I am pretty sure if that's the case then PC's weird hard town case on NAS yesterday was a TMI town read

[Dannflor]

you don't, stop

[Dannflor]

PC is likely town.

no but i just said they are likely scum

[Dannflor]

hu tao how come you are steam rolling ahead after what happened d1

[Dannflor]

i dont care im going to case political clout anyway

[Dannflor]

ari when im not currently working up against a deadline im going to try to take some thread control and force whoever is town to work together here

this game is still salvageable as long as we don't quick eliminate a town!NAS before i manage to do that

[Dannflor]

ari when im not currently working up against a deadline im going to try to take some thread control and force whoever is town to work together here

this game is still salvageable as long as we don't quick eliminate a town!NAS before i manage to do that

is the nas townread mostly because of your clout scumread?

mostly

like i totally see the NAS scum read and there's a reason I wanted to kill there yesterday, but i feel like I'm limited to like 50% confidence on NAS

ill explain in a bit

[Dannflor]

i think ari's frustration makes sense from town because she was ignored basically all of d1, she's being consensus scum read, and the loudest voices consist of hu tao and RN and they seem content to kind of steam roll forward without stopping to figure shit out

especially with titus being a mystery alignment and another loud and probably very wrong voice the game just feels like it's very ripe for scum to just walk over town especially if Ari is town

[Dannflor]

Kay why aren't you voting NAS

oh my god

[Dannflor]

idk titus thinking klick was a vig shot made me think she was just scum but since the IC also thought that i really can't be making those types of reads

[Dannflor]

i am busy tonight and will have to wait to fully summarize my thoughts / figure out what i want to do

idk why hu tao is trying to rush today it's very disheartening

[Dannflor]

I'll be around in the next hour

thanks for not ending the day

[Dannflor]

i kinda just want to kill in [geraintm, Titus, Political Clout]

---

I don't think Titus centering her play today around whether or not the Klick kill was a vig shot is towny. I think that's way more likely to come from scum who thinks it looks towny to "not know" where the kill came from than from town who is actually paying attention to the game. I think Titus' scum reads of me, Aristeia, and Psyche aren't actually intended to go anywhere. They are so contrived that I really think it's only supposed to make her look busy. I'm pretty sure all three of those slots are town.

1786 doesn't feel like someone who is genuinely reevaluating. Her scum reads of me/psyche have been largely based on associatives between the three of us, so I would expect a broader reevaluation from town!Titus here. instead, she just swaps Ari for NaS. This post reads like someone disappointed that they "have to" town read Aristeia for her frustration with the gamestate.

---

with political clout, I think 104 is *way* too quick to back off the Hu Tao wagon and looks like a TMI town read. there's also the fact that PC spends the rest of D1 blanket calling both naerys and hu tao town, without reevaluating or really engaging with either of them at all. I think it's quite likely Naerys v Hu Tao was town versus town, but I find it very hard to believe an uninformed townie doesn't at some point get suspicious of the multiple turn abouts of either naerys or hu tao

I don't believe their town read of NaS was real either. I don't believe that PC really lock towns NaS off of the joke/not-joke post, it looks like an against the thread read that was made in order to look good. 1601 just gives me icky vibes.

in general I think PC picks at a lot of inconsistencies and asks a lot of nothing questions but doesn't really have any stake in who gets elimmed. like apparently they scum read psyche and klick and kjq yesterday but does anyone remember PC trying to get any of them killed? I find the strange town read of NaS way more memorable

---

geraintm i just think would have something more to say at this point if town than making more excuses for not analyzing anything

or i think there'd be some like townie "I told you so energy" coming after D1.

I'll admit this is my weakest scum read and it's mostly PoE

[Dannflor]

i feel best about psyche and aristeia being town

next level down is like KJQ and Hu Tao

davesaz and NaS are more tentative town reads

[Dannflor]

NaS just feels tonally very towny today and i kinda think if they were scum here they would not care so much about their KJQ suspicions after claiming

[Dannflor]

i believe titus probably has the highest chance of flipping scum right now

VOTE: titus

I could probably do PC or geraintm we have to but I would really prefer this

[Dannflor]

I wouldn't. The vig would have Dann as likely scum but would see Dann as scum. He could just shoot them. Then again, probably means I should stop and wait to see if Dan's shot by night 4.

I just really cannot see this as a genuine thought process

[Dannflor]

I'm assuming Klick was killed by the mafia until given evidence to the contrary

if you want to put any weight on his reads he:

strongly town read Aristeia
strongly town read Hu Tao
scum read davesaz
thought Titus had a decent chance of flipping scum

[Dannflor]

Why on earth would you think Klick was a vig shot????

Titus you are smarter than this

[Dannflor]

honestly maybe add dave to my pool

[davesaz/titus/geraintm/PC]

I'm reasonably confident everyone else is town at this point

I think Klick was the most likely player to stand in the way of Hu Tao getting run over today and that might've been why he was killed idk

he was also just very towny

[Dannflor]

Klick's last vote was NAS.

Klick didn't really scum read NaS for context, he was sheeping me for lack of better options

[Dannflor]

titus you are not thinking about the game rationally if you are town

you just want to be a dragonslayer

[Dannflor]

hu tao why are you town reading titus and PC

[Dannflor]

NaS just feels tonally very towny today and i kinda think if they were scum here they would not care so much about their KJQ suspicions after claiming

I’ll try to consider this. I admit I was only seeing it from one side as if he were guilty, but I guess it’s possible someone would/could be just as defensive as town. I just have to figure out which feels right in this situation. My gut is still leaning toward scum but I’ll try not to be so tunnel-y.

it's possible I am wrong

but I get the feeling they just think they are onto something with their suspicions of you

[Dannflor]

tinfoil hat I think someone gave nas those things to post. they feel like two different people posting today and yesterday.

seems like the same tone as 885 and 1097 to me

[Dannflor]

tinfoil hat I think someone gave nas those things to post. they feel like two different people posting today and yesterday.

seems like the same tone as 885 and 1097 to me

I don't even remember those posts. how did you? did you iso him before this? that was a really fast response to me too.

i had his iso open on my other monitor

[Dannflor]

i still think it's blindingly obvious that NAS has been lying about his reasons for doing things such as voting hu tao but let me go through the motions

ok i will listen to you

[Dannflor]

NAS has been lying about his reasons for doing things such as voting hu tao

but i would first question whether that is actually scum indicative

[Dannflor]

let's say I have this belief. That we should kill on the wagon. let's also say that people on the first hammered wagon are a lot of the same people on the second wagon today. and let's say that everyone is doing whatever they want. will a statistical proof or essay change anyones mind that we should for sure kill on the wagon since it is most probably that scum are on that wagon since it aligns with their win con and that we should reexamine our reads of the people on the wagons.

- love, light, and peace
PC

ok how about titus she matches those parameters

[Dannflor]

hmm but why would town NAS lie about his reasons for a vote

i think town do post hoc reasoning a lot when they think they need to

i see it a lot in newbies

[Dannflor]

but it seems to me like an artificial narrowing
could just as easily propose we pick 5 slots at random and vote between those and say it "narrows it down considerably"
unless you're that confident that all the scum voted the given away

i think it's somewhat reasonable to assume there are more scum on wagon since the night kill was someone off wagon

unless you're a vig truther

[Dannflor]

I want all 3 titus, dave, and hu tao.

I'd go for titus or dave

[Dannflor]

maybe [titus/dave/geraintm] is a more palatable solve

[Dannflor]

geraint on d1: i like to get to night 1 so that the game can start properly

also geraint on d2: speculating later on might be useful, after only night 1 not so much

[Dannflor]

I was gung-ho, I admit it. But that is just me day 1. I don't enjoy day 1, I think it is random at best or tilted in favour of scum in all likelihood, and I just want to get through it as quickly as possible to get to night 1 so that the game can start properly.

I was gung-ho, I admit it. But that is just me day 1. I don't enjoy day 1, I think it is random at best or tilted in favour of scum in all likelihood, and I just want to get through it as quickly as possible to get to night 1 so that the game can start properly.

like literally

[Dannflor]

I was gung-ho, I admit it. But that is just me day 1. I don't enjoy day 1, I think it is random at best or tilted in favour of scum in all likelihood, and I just want to get through it as quickly as possible to get to night 1 so that the game can start properly.

I think you can speculate, bit we've all been scum and chosen reasons for a night kill that when we see town trying to work things out they are hopelessly wrong.
Later on for sure, but night 1 not so much

like literally

EBWOP

[Dannflor]

i think scum can around as often try to avoid figuring prominently on doomed wagons
i did some analyses about this once upon a time and it did seem that scum somewhat systematically avoid being the driving force or hammer behind D1 mislims, and the converse for successful lims
small effect sizes but is arguably the best reason to townread NAS at this point

i mean i tend to agree, and i was very vocal about this D1 and why i was searching for someone avoiding the doomed wagon

but then klick got killed and all the people left off the wagon are generally towny

[Dannflor]

sorry dave for what it's worth i don't feel super strongly about you either way

idk if that makes it better or worse

[Dannflor]

Which is why we are going for NAS

you did not read his post

[Dannflor]

VOTE: PC

[Dannflor]

i understand where titus' scum read comes from now, i guess

but i can almost guarantee you a vig did not kill klick

[Dannflor]

Dan is either a scum PR or did the nightkill. He's scared.

i am none of these things

sorry you wasted your night ability

[Dannflor]

Scum being off wagon with resistance to a counter at all suggests scum didn't give a damn.

i was one of the only people actually trying to make a counter happen

[Dannflor]

jesus titus you conf biased yourself into outing/wasting your PR instead of accepting the much more likely world where scum shot klick and I am town