TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

[mith]

…I am suddenly reminded why I haven’t played in the last ten years.

Going to take a bit to catch up, and I’m going to try very hard not to just default to going after LLD for invoking “STATISTIAL THEORY”.

[mith]

In a 3 vs. 10, the probability of an arbitrary group of three players containing at least one scum is 58% (I suspect imaginality had the right calculation and just forgot to subtract from 1).

I'd be interested in hearing from everyone on why you picked the number you picked, if anyone hasn't already answered that. For myself, I briefly glanced at a couple of the previous PYP S_S games to get a feel for it but didn't rely on it all that much (since the rule here is different, there's less incentive to stick to lower numbers; in fact, I suspected the median would be closer to matching the number of players). I did consider submitting some absurdly high number that isn't special to mathematics (like, on the order of TREE(3) or some insane function like that, but not specifically a number people might know) to guarantee no clashing, and hey, that would've turned out exactly the same.

[mith]

I'll just respond to this directly rather than making a massive wall picking apart previous posts.

i agree with that as the base calculation, live evidence from past games suggests the number is higher in triplicate number choices, as would a cursory glance at scum selection choices and the kind of logic that is put in by scum to their choices.

Apologies if I missed this, but have you actually provided statistics on this evidence? I saw you reference a couple of specific games, which is not compelling (could be cherry-picking, deliberately or not).

it's a fractional edge over picking 3 names at random from a strictly maths standpoint but that edge is increased IMO by the psychology of how the game is played and further redoubled in usefulness by not revealing town power structure via claims overmuch, especially when Scum chose Multitasking over informed, so they are decently in the dark, some info assuredly but a good chance they're missing a few different high power info roles they have to play around as a result.

1. I agree with you on the point about not revealing town powers this early. This is a good reason to not go after the singletons day 1.

2. Regarding the maths, there could be a small edge over picking 3 names at random, but there is a

larger

edge in picking scum from the singletons*.

I couldn't help myself and put together a little simulation; it's of course difficult to simulate a problem like this because of the psychology of closest unique to median (or lowest, in the other games), so I've simplified the problem as follows: 3 Mafia, 10 Town, town is picking randomly from a set of 10 numbers (10 is completely arbitrary here), Mafia is picking 0, 1, and 2:

Simulating 60000 games gave the following results:

Code: Select all

#     Mafia    Overall  Percentage       Expected
1     62960    226144	0.278406679	0.230769231
2     69553    150756	0.461361405	0.423076923
3     34894     59043	0.590993005	0.58041958
4     10285     14968	0.687132549	0.706293706
5      1992      2606	0.76438987	0.804195804
6       283       341	0.829912023	0.877622378

In this simulation, the probability of Mafia appearing in a group of 3 is up to 59% vs. 58% for an arbitrary set of 3 players. There's nothing particularly special about the groups of 3 though; overall, Mafia are more likely to avoid grouping (compared to an arbitrary selection of 3) because they are picking unique numbers compared to each other.

Additionally, we have the specific knowledge of how the numbers split. I would expect the likelihood of Mafia in specifically the one triplet

with the knowledge that we have the partition that we do

is actually slightly lower than 58%. (This follows directly from knowing the edge for singletons and pairs in the full simulation is much more significant.) Might write some code for this later just as an interesting math question; I just don't consider it all that relevant to the game.

* All of this depends on the likelihood of a scum gambit being negligible, of course. (Though I would guess that if we were 100% sure of a scum gambit with a singleton and a pair, it would be more likely mathematically for the pair to be on their own rather than as part of a triple?)

3. The "IMO" here seems like a far cry from your earlier rhetoric on this. (That said, I have really only skimmed the earlier argument at this point.)

------

Anyway, that's probably all the maths I will be doing on this (at least for the game, it's an interesting problem!). I'm not likely to base anything on how the numbers happened to fall beyond things like "we know Ythan has a role, we know Staeg likely has a role, etc., forcing a claim out of these slots day 1 would be counterproductive".

Initial reads coming later, I should probably get some work done. But in the meantime,
VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

[mith]

I didn't cherry pick, I actually went to the MS wiki of X/Y PYP and went through the listed games one by one and sought out whether the pattern fit or did not fit in specific games, leaving games where there were no large groupings out, and mentioning examples that didn't fit the pattern

What I'm asking is whether you presented the results of this. As I said, what I saw in my skim was the mention of a couple of games, and I entirely accept that I might have missed a more thorough analysis. Whether you did that more thorough analysis or not, if all you

posted

was a couple of games that conform to your conclusion that could still be cherry-picking (not cherry-picking to reach a conclusion, but rather cherry-picking in presenting that conclusion; and again, either could be non-deliberate).

Look, I encourage you to do the review yourself if you think I'm cherry picking or using the argument to obfuscate.

I will at some point; the question still stands on whether you have presented this analysis and what your criteria of selection (for whether the "pattern fit") was.

like part of the maths people are running is saying "Well how likely is it for scum to make a triplicate" but is ignoring that a triplicate has already been made.

I mean, I wrote a paragraph about this exactly and reached an opposite conclusion, but ok. Since I just can't help myself, I did the simulation again and pulled out only the results that have the same distribution as this game (4 singles, 3 doubles, 1 triple):

Code: Select all

     All Games (60000)    Matching Games (10422)
1   0.278209797           0.269621954
2   0.462059882           0.449561824
3   0.591573852           0.572826713

(I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader why these probabilities are

all

lower than in the sample as a whole; it's somewhat counterintuitive, but there's a mathematical explanation. And I will happily admit that this is not a definitive answer on the problem, since the choice of buckets is arbitrary and it is in no way taking into account the uneven distribution in what players would actually select.)

My point of all this is not "OMG LLD is wrong about the maths, obvscum". I'm not even presenting this as a definitive math theory answer. You might well be right about the historical trends, and certainly taking into account the possibility of a scum gambit tips things toward groupings (though probably as much toward pairs as triples). I'll get into what I find suspect about this later, have to run for a meeting.

[mith]

you seem like you agree with LLD here? Maybe my reading comprehension is in the toilet, but if you two seem to think that it's likely that 3 wolves are in 6s, why are you voting her?
Also do you have other reads?

Your reading comprehension is in the toilet, yes.

I think my current scumread of LLD is more to do with the volume and attitude of the numbers discussion more than with disagreeing over her conclusion (I don't currently have any reason to think she doesn't believe what she's been pushing about the scum-in-triple probability). It completely flooded the early game in a way that doesn't strike me as productive for town, where I can see plenty of benefit for scum to try to push on a particular group of players (potentially stifling other D1 discussion; and the argument about it has certainly had the effect of stifling my willingness to read through everything). I particularly don't care for the start of the argument with Ythan.

[editing as I read more]Also, imaginality's point in post 311 and LLD's response in post 313. Yikes. Just a whole lot of space wasted on arguing that the numbers are in favor of scum being in the triplet if the whole point was

not that those players are more likely to be scum

but rather they are safer in terms of not revealing town powers.

Long story short: I agree we should take draft order into account with regard to not exposing town powers, I disagree that tunneling on the 6s is more likely to hit scum.

I have townreads on Cephrir, Ythan, Bellaphant, imaginality (in that order of confidence).

Maybe

a slight scumread on Alisae (but possibly just a style conflict).

[mith]

Just vibing, mostly. The voting pattern seems strange (can you explain why you voted for who you did each time?) You do at least seem to be trying to get reads on people.

The Cephrir read is purely based on his probability comment (the explanation for the 62% calculation). Could've done it as scum, but feels more likely as town.
Bella reads like trying to figure the game out. Similar to you, but without the strange voting pattern.

What are your current reads?

[mith]

There was a disconnect for me with the Marashu vote specifically; makes more sense if you were still sheeping LLD on the 6s. I can't say I

understand

sheeping LLD there, but at least it's an explanation.

(This is likely my last post for the evening; time for dinner and getting the kids in bed. I will be hoping the posting frequency slows down at least a little bit so that I have a chance to actually catch up in the morning.)

[mith]

I feel like if mith was genuine about scumreading LLD, when LLD backtracked from "6s specifically are scummy" to "limming low in the draft order is better" it should have caused him to second guess the bit I italicised above.

When I wrote the italicized, I hadn't gotten to that exchange. Didn't go back to edit it. ~shrug~ I would just rephrase it: I don't have reason to think LLD doesn't believe that scum are likely to be in the bigger groups and that that is important. I think she's

wrong

about that (the importance of "scum are likely to be in bigger groups" in the absence of "scum are

more

likely to be in bigger groups than to be in an arbitrary group of the same size"), but being wrong is not a particular strong scumtell in my experience.

What

is

scummy to me is how she pushed it and how the argument about it progressed. But that is still mostly vibe at this point, because I'm old and slow and still don't feel at all caught up in this game.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "mech" (is this what the cool kids are saying these days?). I'm also curious why you didn't actually push on LLD after the 311/313 exchange. As you say, 313 was really bad... so why no follow-up on that until now?

------

I was able to skim everything since my last post earlier this morning, and I wanted to make the following clear: the lack of particularly strong reads at this point has far more to do with the pace of the game and the amount of time I have to spend on it (little) than with my alignment. I'll also have to rely on my team for anything meta (kuribo finally gave the game a quick read this morning and thinks LLD is likely town, FWIW); I've never played with any of you and have no intention of trying to figure out your meta by reading a bunch of old games. I barely have time to read this one!

[mith]

I'm suspecting marashu the hardest ever since he voted you, cause I thought datisi's case in that page was pretty unconvincing, or at least I felt like datisi was noticing things that aren't indicative of alignment and calling them scummy. marashu didn't explain why he voted there but since dats' case was on the same page it makes sense for it to be sheeping him which I find suspicious cause IDT many townies would read through those points and agree with them. I don't like that marashu didn't return to the game yet while promising to do so, so I'm fine with where my vote is.

Gimli, why did you originally vote for Marashu?

[mith]

Gimli, why did you originally vote for Marashu?

he quoted the same post datisi used to SR Rad (thats 127 and 128, asking lld to calm down and move on) that's NAI or even a little towny from rad imo so I don't agree with how datisi read the situation. I don't scumread datisi for it cause maybe he believes in it, but for marashu to drop in the game and sheep what imo is not a good case, I didn't feel good about that. it feels like marashu just picked the first reasonable looking push in front of him and pushed that, so I voted him.

I was trying to get a feel for why kuribo was suspecting Gimli, and one of the things mentioned was that vote. So I looked at the context here.

408 - Datisi votes for Rad (giving 127 as one reason, followed by some more stuff)
409-412 - Marashu enters the game. 411 is the post where Marashu gives 127, mirroring Datisi.
Otherwise, the spacing and sequence of quotes suggests that Marashu is legitimately catching up on the game at this point, and I assume this is null unless someone can point to some specific meta on this either way. I'm not sure I buy the idea that Marashu was quoting 127 solely because Datisi did, though.
413 - Gimli votes Marashu (with no explanation until 648)
414 - Marashu votes Rad
415 - Staeg enters the game, gives three scum reads (Datisi, Marashu, implosionality) votes Marashu. "Gimli has the right idea" is very strange here, given that Gimli has not at this point explained the vote in 413 and that two others (LLD and Alisae) are on the wagon at this point.

648, Gimli explains the scumread (in response to Rad) as "suspecting marashu the hardest ever since he voted on you" and that "marashu didn't explain why he voted there".

The gap between 413 and 648 coupled with the lack of consistency (Marashu's vote on Rad being after Gimli's vote) rubs me the wrong way.

Anyone more familiar with Gimli's play have any comment on this? (Or Staeg's 415, for that matter.)

[mith]

415 - Staeg enters the game, gives three scum reads (Datisi, Marashu, implosionality) votes Marashu. "Gimli has the right idea" is very strange here, given that Gimli has not at this point explained the vote in 413 and that two others (LLD and Alisae) are on the wagon at this point.

Correction on this; Staeg did not give Datisi as a scum read, but rather commented on Rad (and not quite a scumread; rather, sort of excusing Datisi and Marashu were going after Rad for).

(FWIW, I don't read 127 as particularly indicative of Rad's alignment either. Staeg's wording just strikes me as odd.)

------

Gimli, what are your thoughts on Staeg right now? Staeg, what are your thoughts on Gimli?

[mith]

"excusing

what

Datisi..."

It drives me crazy that I have an edit button and can't use it.

[mith]

I see this post and I thought that this post was written more so to look good and be ironclad than to actually be right.

"Gimli has the right idea" could be strategical phrasing.

You know, I probably would've read these before now if you hadn't posted over 200 times already

[mith]

I'm vibing a Staeg/Rad pairing at the moment, between 415 and 731; I'll find some time to read Rad tonight.

[mith]

I think this is a lot over one vote though

If it were just over one vote, I wouldn't have given a breakdown of four votes in eight posts...

But ok, what about this interaction seems like "a lot" to you?

[mith]

lots of words

I dont think you'll like interacting much with me rn but I appreciate the effort. speaking of me voting mara first, what do you think of the fact that marashu was definitely around to see me voting him in real time but chose to ignore it?

Oh, that's not even a long post for me.

The Marashu question is a good one (as is the earlier point about Marashu disappearing after that post). I think his ignoring the vote is slightly more likely to come from scum.

[mith]

I'm vibing a Staeg/Rad pairing at the moment, between 415 and 731; I'll find some time to read Rad tonight.

Is it because I said "I'll let him elaborate if he wants to instead of throwing that out there."?

What's funny is usually I'll just throw out my thoughts on why it could be townie, like "I think what he was thinking here is...", and people get angry at me for not letting them explain themselves. Weeeee

It's more the similarities in what you said about Staeg and what Staeg said about you:

Not fond of Rad's presence being the LLD null-or-town debacle + let's all take a breath, but the latter really isn't what I'd bill Rad for

This is a really good catch. The order of how this all went down is really strange paired with the "Gimli has the right idea" quote. I'll be thinking about it more. I can kinda see a townie perspective of why he said that when he did but I'll let him elaborate if he wants to instead of throwing that out there.

It is reading a lot into two posts in this sea of a game, but it doesn't sit well with me that you both seemingly felt the need to be supportive for the immediately preceding arguments (Datisi's on you, mine on Staeg) and then immediately downplay their significance. (That's not to say this

couldn't

have happened with either or both of you town, but this is the feeling I have at the moment.)

[mith]

(I think I am going to push the admin team for a feature which collapses back-to-back posts together, my brain hates all the empty space.)

Going to step away before I finish reading Rad. At the moment, I'm just seeing weird little interactions amongst Rad, Gimli, and Staeg and I want to make sure I'm not just tunnelling on that.

[mith]

@Mith

what do you think of a Rad-Staeg-LLD team?

Don't hate it; would be a gambit on 13, and currently I'm still inclined to think scum spread out rather than pairing up. It would also surprise me in the sense that LLD and Staeg were/are on the Marashu wagon and Rad listed that slot as the only scumread.

Do you have a meta read on Rad?

Rad, if you had to gamble on buddies for Marashu right now, who would you pick?

[mith]

There's not a lot of confidence

I don't have a lot of confidence in much of anything right now. ~shrug~ I don't know how any of you play, nor have I interacted with any of you much outside of this game. I also have my one teammate who has read this game chiming in with a town read, which is giving me pause.

That said, I do feel more strongly about LLD-scum than anyone else at the moment. On the more recent postings:

I

hate

the whole "calling Alisae's bluff" thing; obvious incentive to go along with this if LLD is scum and Rad is town, not really all that risky if they are both scum, and feels like an overly extreme reaction to the mere suggestion of her in a group.

The interaction with Rad himself is... something. Asking "why top 4 specifically" is a perfectly legitimate question that was (as far as I can tell) never answered before this exchange. In a vacuum, the reaction is anti-town; I get the impression from others not blinking at this that LLD just bites people's heads off like this sometimes though?

[mith]

UNVOTE:

Don't like the imaginality reasoning at all as far as a gut reaction, and it's more on the "imaginality knows LLD is town" side of things than "imaginality is distancing". Need to review some things (and have also asked team for their thoughts on this). It may be a while before I am able to post much of substance today, currently dealing with a migraine and work is going to be a nightmare.

[mith]

However, I actually don't see it as a bus as such precisely because mith pulled his punches a bit. Yes mith's voting LLD but like in the post I quoted previously I feel like town!mith would be pushing the LLD wagon more.

So I think it's like someone proposed earlier in the game with Ythan - distancing more than bussing, because of being confident that LLD can avoid being today's lim.

I'm hung up on this a bit.

Why do you think I would be more likely to push hard on LLD as town vs. as scum?
How does that have anything at all to do with your assessment of "distancing more than bussing"?

(Also noteworthy that the reasoning in this post is entirely about me, not LLD.)

I think this might be coming from an informed perspective.

I think LLD may be planting this to prepare the ground for bussing a buddy D2 or beyond.

If LLD believes this as town I would have expected her to go on to question her rule about not limming in the top 4 but she doesn't seem to have.

I agree with LLD on this point that scum probably did well in the draft though. I think if multiple scum were say 6-10 in the order there'd be more agreement around focusing on limming in the 6s specifically, as LLD proposed, compared to limming 'lower in the draft' in general. I can definitely see how mafia might be playing quietly here to let town drive a mislim on D1 if two or more of them are in the top 4 or so.

Also, having thought about it a little more myself, I think there's also actually a possible advantage to limming top 4 today that might not apply tomorrow.

The start of this post reads like tacked on justification for the vote in the previous post (which didn't really have any directly at LLD); it (and the vote itself) are at odds with agreeing with LLD on this point, arguing against multiple scum in 6-10, and arguing for possible advantage to eliminating top 4 (after switching from #4 to #6). Leaving out the 5 slot (Rad) is conspicuous.

(In team chat, kuribo is questioning whether imaginality might feel going after LLD would be too risky, if imaginality is scum and LLD is town. Which might be a good meta point, I dunno.)

No vote yet, I'm gonna let this simmer.

[mith]

Klick is saying, in response to mith, about imaginality, they had the same reaction as imaginality

Which reaction, and why?

("Klick said X" on its own is not super relevant to me. There are few players on any team that I am even remotely familiar with, and exactly 0 whose read I would trust over my own with no context.)

It's almost like I've tried to solve Mith,

Curious about this (I don't disagree with the broader point; you're clearly engaged in the game and thinking about people, whatever alignment that is coming from). As far as I can tell from a quick ISO, your read on me is based on a lack of confidence in my read on you and sparse rationale for that read. Which... is pretty sparse rationale for a scumread, never mind "trying to solve" someone, IMO.

[mith]

It was about 969, I think this was more about them than you. *shrug*

Is this responding to me? 969 is a Datisi post, so, um… huh?

[mith]

Bella, I would still like a response re: imaginality. (Not just the post number, I want to know what specifically it was that Klick was in agreement on, and why.)

Re: Marashu

Wagons on lurkers are good; wagons on players not posting at all tend to be safe places for scum to plant their vote. If Marashu comes back with the same bare minimum of substance, I will almost certainly move my vote there; and if Marashu comes back with a bunch of content, hopefully that will make the slot easy to read.

The idea that a wagon on a lurker/absent player is low information is dumb, though. Information is never just about the flip, who is voting and why is extremely important.

[mith]

Anyhow my point is not "we should lim this specific person" but "we shouldn't hold off from pushing and even limming someone today just because they're top 4."

My brain does not read past votes, apparently. I didn't see that line at all. Regardless, I stand by "tacked on"; the vote switch was "on that basis" (of thinking it more likely your scumread of me was wrong). You aren't expressing here that recent posting made you feel more strongly about LLD's scumminess and that it's a factor in your vote.

I want to walk through the imaginality timeline a bit here.

215 - arguments about LLD's number stuff, does not express a read
217 - random/joke vote for mith (I haven't posted yet)
288 - mentions some things about the LLD number theory argument, does not express a read here
311 - points out that using examples of 1 scum in a group of 5 is... a choice; "It makes me doubt whether you genuinely are motivated by your statistical analysis here" (this is a good point, of course)

LLD's 313

[complete lack of commentary on LLD's 313] - I have a hard time believing imaginality just missed this post, or felt that responding to Ythan's clarification was more important? (330/331)

694 - next post referencing LLD (after a couple catch-up posts), in presenting a scumread on me.
First point of this scumread is based on my not making more of LLD's backtracking...

while having made nothing of LLD's backtracking??

695 - "as for LLD while I do currently lean scum on her for the mech stuff as mentioned (like mith said, 313 really was bad), I've not looked as closely at her more recent posts as I should"

Datisi's 960 - "imaginality is trying to play both sides of lld v mith" (prompted by LLD's 910)
961 - having expressed a not particularly confident "lean scum" on LLD, claims to have been mulling over whether one scumread is wrong or they're right and we're bussing. Proceeds with:

However, I actually don't see it as a bus as such precisely because mith pulled his punches a bit. Yes mith's voting LLD but like in the post I quoted previously I feel like town!mith would be pushing the LLD wagon more.

Note that the second sentence here is clearly an elaboration on the first. "I actually don't see it as a bus...

Yes

mith's voting LLD

but

..."; the problem is, the follow up on "don't see it as a bus" is "town!mith would...", which is a complete non sequitur. Thinking I wouldn't do something as town cannot possibly be a reason for not seeing something as a bus.

Anyway, therefore, it's distancing. But my recent posts read ok so the mith scumread is more likely to be wrong, so, "On that basis:", votes LLD. To this point, has given no rationale for thinking LLD is scum other than that 313 was bad.

This whole thing smells.

[previewedit]

AMA.

Why haven't you read and posted content yet?
[/previewedit]

VOTE: imaginality

[mith]

@mith, paraphrasing a wall from klick:

In 979 you seem skeptical of imaginality having their gut take in 964, in reaction to llds 904. It looks like in 979 you don't think it's a decent/real take? But specifically, klick says he reacted very similarly to imaginality, and we are town, so 964 does seem like it could be a town reaction. Klick saw 904 Ans thought it was awkward and could've been created for what it looked like, rather than real thoughts (I've touched on this elsewhere).

So the agreement was with imaginality's take that LLD seemed informed?

To clarify here, my issue is with the second half of the post not meshing well with the first half and with the vote switch. Not the strongest point in the case, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to argue that multiple scum in 6-10 is unlikely and that you can see multiple scum in the top 4 immediately following switching your vote from your one scumread in the top 4 to your other scumread in 6-10.

In general, it feels like imaginality keeps half-heartedly pushing the "hey maybe we should keep top 4 on the table" to... well, try to keep top 4 on the table, without committing to going hard after anyone in the top 4 (read: me).

------

I could buy scum!Rad; it bothers me that when I have looked closely at other players in isolation, there has so often been some weird interaction with Rad (being Marashu's only read of any substance in those initial postings; Gimli and Staeg's jump on Marashu around that same time; imaginality's focus on 6-10 and top 4). Don't have a solid read on Rad independently yet, though.

Also, apparently Menalque has made 56 posts and has made absolutely no impact on me. I would not have remembered that he called me town several times if I hadn't just ISO'd it. Need to take a closer look there.

(Not sure how much I'll actually be around this afternoon, but I'll do my best. Work sucks this week.)

[previewedit]

let's rephrase that as "they're scummy but i don't wanna flip there" though, how many people said that

Mith and Imaginality also mentioned it

Huh? I also mentioned what?

[mith]

Huh? I also mentioned what?

If Marashu comes back with the same bare minimum of substance, I will almost certainly move my vote there; and if Marashu comes back with a bunch of content, hopefully that will make the slot easy to read.

This equates to "they're scummy but i don't wanna flip there"? Methinks your reading comprehension is in the toilet with Alisae's.

I didn't have any strong reason to read him either way on the basis of a few posts before disappearing. If it became clear that he was lurking, diescumdie. I was neither saying "they're scummy" nor "i don't wanna flip there"; my read was contingent on whether and how he returned, and my willingness to flip someone is almost entirely in sync with my read.

As it stands now, I need to catch up on his return. The backlog of reads I need to do continues to grow. [previewedit]as does the thread[/previewedit]

[mith]

Ythan, why is Alisae your number two?

Have to admit it bothers me a bit that Cephrir's bottom 3 is exactly my "most likely scum group if I'm right about imaginality".

[mith]

Ythan, why is Alisae your number two?

Have to admit it bothers me a bit that Cephrir's bottom 3 is exactly my "most likely scum group if I'm right about imaginality".

Bothers? Wouldn't this affirm you in some manner? At least that Ceph is thinking the same way?

Sure, but at the same time it makes me a bit paranoid going for a walk, having that grouping come to mind while thinking about the game, and then seeing that same group of players on the screen.

[mith]

I await with baited breath the dismantling of my junk case.

I think it’s really easy for a wolf!lld to just votepark marashu and if they ever do vote marashu that’s something I feel like is worth investigating

My totally-paranoid take on LLD/Marashu is that they are scum together. I don't think it's actually likely, and I'm certainly not going to spend the time right now digging through all... (checks) 333 LLD posts (this will probably be wrong by the time I finish writing this) to see if it makes any sense, but that's been on my mind since I unvoted LLD, LLD unvoted Marashu, and momentum seems to be converging elsewhere.

Overall non-paranoid take would place them both somewhere in a nebulous blob in the middle of the pack; Marashu has posted

just

enough to not make me think he's deliberately lurking, and I agree with LLD that it doesn't make a lot of sense to not come back with something stronger if he's scum (but, scum are bad sometimes). LLD has the opposite problem of posting so much content that it's not hard to find some things I like to go with the things I was voting her for.

Anyway. I would vote for Rad over Marashu right now if it came to a deadline thing (not that we are anywhere close to that yet). Quite happy on imaginality, until he blows up my junk case of course.

[mith]

*bated. Sigh.

[mith]

None of this is going to convince anyone else

As soon as the muscle relaxer I took kicks in, I’m gonna

solve this whole argument

be asleep.

(Seriously though, my four-year-old broke me. You young’uns have fun, I’ll catch up tomorrow sometime.)

[mith]

Responding inline for this:

My brain does not read past votes, apparently. I didn't see that line at all. Regardless, I stand by "tacked on"; the vote switch was "on that basis" (of thinking it more likely your scumread of me was wrong). You aren't expressing here that recent posting made you feel more strongly about LLD's scumminess and that it's a factor in your vote.

The context here was I'd already started writing about 313 and then wanted to respond directly to datisi's "playing both sides" comment in 960 while we were both online so I made the "hey good timing!" post 961 and then finished off my draft post after which became 964.
I'd clearly mentioned in my previous post (694) that I needed and planned to reread LLD's recent posts so to assume I wasn't taking them into account pre-supposes I was lying about that. Compared to an unbiased take.

On my phone, so I’m not going to try to address everything in this post yet, but want to dig into this first bit.

I assume you mean 904 and not 313 here.

I am not

assuming

you weren’t taking LLD’s more recent (at the time) posting into account. I am reading what you said in that post (961). The basis of the vote switch was stated as being based on it being more likely that you were wrong about me, due to

my

recent (at the time) posting. Not “I think it’s more likely I’m wrong about mith, and also LLD’s recent posting looks scummy for reasons I am about to elaborate, on that basis [switching votes].”

I don’t doubt that you had started looking into LLD’s posts. I don’t have reason to believe you are lying about drafting a post on them, either. Where you are straining credulity is the claim that you felt some urgent need to reply to Datisi’s previous post (what, an hour and a half old by the time you posted?)

and switch votes

before mentioning a single thing directly related to LLD. In my view, town!imaginality presents the new stuff on LLD before vote switching, scum!imaginality is more concerned with being called out by Datisi.

[previewedit]
Obvious question: why did you pick Universal Backup, imaginality?

[mith]

Doh, deleted a tag I shouldn’t have, sorry about that. Bolded text is imaginality, everything below is me.

[mith]

I’ll just repost, it bothers me too much.

Responding inline for this:

My brain does not read past votes, apparently. I didn't see that line at all. Regardless, I stand by "tacked on"; the vote switch was "on that basis" (of thinking it more likely your scumread of me was wrong). You aren't expressing here that recent posting made you feel more strongly about LLD's scumminess and that it's a factor in your vote.

The context here was I'd already started writing about 313 and then wanted to respond directly to datisi's "playing both sides" comment in 960 while we were both online so I made the "hey good timing!" post 961 and then finished off my draft post after which became 964.
I'd clearly mentioned in my previous post (694) that I needed and planned to reread LLD's recent posts so to assume I wasn't taking them into account pre-supposes I was lying about that. Compared to an unbiased take.

On my phone, so I’m not going to try to address everything in this post yet, but want to dig into this first bit.

I assume you mean 904 and not 313 here.

I am not

assuming

you weren’t taking LLD’s more recent (at the time) posting into account. I am reading what you said in that post (961). The basis of the vote switch was stated as being based on it being more likely that you were wrong about me, due to

my

recent (at the time) posting. Not “I think it’s more likely I’m wrong about mith, and also LLD’s recent posting looks scummy for reasons I am about to elaborate, on that basis [switching votes].”

I don’t doubt that you had started looking into LLD’s posts. I don’t have reason to believe you are lying about drafting a post on them, either. Where you are straining credulity is the claim that you felt some urgent need to reply to Datisi’s previous post (what, an hour and a half old by the time you posted?)

and switch votes

before mentioning a single thing directly related to LLD. In my view, town!imaginality presents the new stuff on LLD before vote switching, scum!imaginality is more concerned with being called out by Datisi.

[previewedit]
Obvious question: why did you pick Universal Backup, imaginality?

[mith]

Currently mulling over whether I believe imaginality picked UB as something that might be overlooked while also claiming the Rolecop would be so tempting to mid/low scum as to conclude that either scum are unlikely to be in the 6-10 range or scum are playing weirdly.

I mean, it’s not completely contradictory. But it’s not sitting as well as just that he’s scum giving the reasoning he used to pick Rolecop as justification for his top 4 thing.

(4-year-old screaming about her bath is not helping anything)

[mith]

Can I have a hood w/ lld plz that would be great

Pretty sure this PT would qualify as a DDoS attack on the site, let's not.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Imaginality

This vote is unlikely to be a bus

Really? Why do you think this? (I had the opposite reaction.)

More importantly, though:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Imaginality

Staeg, why

did

you vote imaginality? As far as I can tell from ISO you have said nothing about him at all.

[mith]

I could see a scum Staeg having a "well this is going downhill for my buddy fast" reaction and throwing a vote on before it's too late to get any town cred out of it. I don't see as much incentive for scum Staeg joining the wagon (having posted nothing about imaginality) if imaginality is town, except maybe if Marashu is also scum and Staeg saw an opportunity to shift things from a 3-3 split to a 4-2 against imaginality.

I don't think the game state was such that scum would have felt the need to urge the wagon along. (Unless Staeg was really worried about the tide turning toward them, but that seems unlikely given the lack of votes and the top 4 thing.)

(To be clear, I'm not saying I think it's 100% a bus or anything like that. It's closer to null than that; I just don't consider that vote a very strong reason to rule Staeg out if imaginality flips scum.)

[mith]

What's my scum motivation for claiming the UB-rolecop slot LLD? I don't think it helps me more than claiming VT would, given that people scumreading me would want the chance to get rid of a scum rolecop.

Also this claim is potentially either verifiable (depending on what the first flipped PR is), and/or probably gets me NKed sometime soon which is good for the game (better town players live longer) and good for me.

I mean, being able to make statements like this is a pretty clear motivation to claim something other than VT.

[mith]

I'd get that benefit with other PR claims that wouldn't have the rolecop albatross round their neck.

How is this relevant to whether you have motivation to not claim VT? (If you're scum and drafted rolecop (or UB for that matter), fakeclaiming a different slot runs the obvious risk of getting countered.)

I would describe it as lazy. 19 hours pass and he posts this and fucks off????? That's a bus?????????????

I'm not saying it

is

a bus, I'm saying it

could be

a bus. Obviously, I am biased by thinking imaginality is scummy scum scum going down in flames here.

It's definitely lazy. It's lazy if it's coming from town, and it's lazy if it's coming from scum voting town, it's lazy if it's coming from scum half-heartedly distancing, and it's lazy if it's coming from scum bussing. My point here is not "Staeg is definitely bussing"; my point is that vote is not moving the needle for me much on reading

imaginality

, and my initial thought on Staeg after reading that vote was "huh, maybe they're scum together".

you don't seem incentive for wolves to vote town? I don't think them having posted nothing about imaginality would stop a wolf!staeg from voting a town!Imaginality.

Of course there is incentive for scum to vote town. There is less incentive for scum to join a wagon on town that looks like it has momentum without their vote. Maybe the meta has changed wildly in the last 10 years, but I'm inclined to think scum would rather be off mislims than on them, if given the option.

I think what really bugs me about this post is how you're saying "Staeg naked votes their buddy after 19 hours of not doing anything just to fuck off because they're going down hill" while also portraying him as someone who competently has the votecount in mind and makes that vote with the intent of shifting the wagons in that way.

That whole reading comprehension thing is biting you again. The hypothetical-Staeg that I can fathom might possibly naked vote their buddy

is not the same

as the hypothetical-Staeg that I

don't

think has incentive to nakedly switch to imaginality

unless

they are switching off a buddy that has been the leading wagon most of the day.

I am not saying Staeg is definitively

either

of those players, never mind both at the same time.

[mith]

In bed, I’ll have to keep this brief. [edit]I failed miserably, tomorrow is gonna suuuuck.[/edit]

Yes, I rely on vote counts quite a bit. I rely on my read of the individual more, but I definitely keep an eye on who joins/leaves a wagon and when. (That said, I did ISO implosion for the exact vote count at the time Staeg switched.)

Re: scum and mislims, I think you’re missing my point. Of course scum are going to use their strength in numbers, and I’m certainly not suggesting that scum are *more likely* to be off a mislim than on it. The key phrase there was

if given the option

.

If you want to read very old games (as if there’s not enough to read in Team Mafia), I suggest you take a look at the vote counts in my previous game on the site (/im-vitational game 13), where I was scum:

D1: mislim, off-wagon
D2: bus
D3: mislim, off-wagon (already closed the tab but IIRC I also put my other buddy at E-1 during this day; wagon fizzled because they couldn’t figure out good partners)
D4: mislim, hammer
D5: mislim, hammer (mislim largely due to manipulating pairings)

That’s not to say I avoided wagons or pushing the eventual mislims entirely; at least the D3 mislim was someone I had been pushing hard the previous days but found a reason to downgrade before the mislim.

Anyway, that’s not how everyone plays scum, and not even how I played scum every time. I doubt I would have the energy to play that was as scum today (I’m barely keeping up with the pace of this game as town). My point is: there are obvious advantages for scum to staying off a potential mislim if they can get away with it.

[mith]

As expected after staying up til 1, I have felt terrible today. I haven't had time to keep up with the game other than skimming anyway (including a good chunk of the afternoon recording sudoku solve videos, I'm such a nerd).

Did see this:

I think a reads list from mith would be helpful because actually there's a bit there about looking at stuff in detail while not bringing massive progress that was my issue with lld.

So I'll give a "quick" barely researched The List (tm) for tonight, and then catch up properly tomorrow:

SCUM

imaginality

- Nothing much has changed here. I certainly think it's

possible

I'm wrong here; I told my team last night that I'm something like 60-40 on him being scum and that's about as confident as I'm ever going to be on day 1 short of a counterclaim. (kuribo would go a little higher, FWIW. Malakittens and Dessew haven't commented at all on this game, but kuribo is cracking me up with descriptions of all the games - we're apparently, to paraphrase, the 1% playing for high stakes.)

Menalque

- Still making zero impression on me in this game, that hasn't changed (understandable it hasn't changed if V/LA, and I can't knock that given the day I've had). I think that's more likely to be coming from scum coasting than from town.

Staeg

- The empty vote is bad; I'll have to re-read in details but a skim of the recent posts gave the impression of not really adding anything new.

Gimli

- The stuff around the Marashu entrance still bugs me. Haven't felt much of an impact from this slot since.

Rad

- This is more gut than anything I can pin down specifically. Just a lot of weirdness around this slot. Nothing standing out in a bad way as far as the his own posts, though.

Alisae

- Chaotic, in a way that is hard for me to read. I have the same volume problem here as with LLD (both in terms of being difficult to keep up with, and because it's not crazy to think scum would be posting a ton to try to drive the game - use their numbers advantage, as Alisae brought up). But on the whole, seems to be trying to solve the game.

LLD

- My initial scumread hasn't totally vanished. If her only content was after that initial numbers argument / emotional whatever, I'd probably have a slight town read? Pretty meh on the Rad bluff-calling thing, and not sure about her apparently extreme level of confidence in her Marashu read.

Marashu

- Seems to be posting reasonably now that he is posting at all? The number of players on the wagon at some point (I think 6, obviously not at the same time) makes me lean town more than anything he's posted though.

Ythan

- Sort of the opposite of LLD; the initial stuff read as town, but feels like she's coasting on that (and draft position) since? To the point that I almost forgot to include her. Wouldn't vote for her today, but if this feeling persists she's going to shoot up the list.

Datisi

- Reads like he's trying to solve the game, vote progression has seemed reasonable.

Bellaphant

- Engaged, asking good questions, and the feedback from Klick has so far seemed to be coming from a town place.

Cephrir

- Subtle math things are a good way to pocket me, apparently. (Not actually

that

confident, of course. 90-10 in favor of town, something like that.) Hasn't done anything that tickles my scumometer, other than paranoia about being too much on my wavelength.

mith

- Paragon of Virtue and Wholesomeness. (Also, too old for this shit.)

TOWN

[mith]

@Mith would you say me and Ali are hard to read for the same reason? Cause I'm having a hard time reconciling your reasoning for Datisi and Bella town while Ali (whom I attribute the same types of town reasoning, minus Klick) you place much closer to scum (or null / difficult to read).

This is a weird question? I thought I was pretty clear that my difficulty reading Alisae is chaos + volume. As an example of what I meant by "chaotic" here:

I feel like Imaginality is a super safe elimination and I'm unsure on if I would want to run anyone else up.

wdym by safe?

You wanna run someone else up to have them claim and give out more information?

Staeg followed up on me for when I unvoted his slot.
I think if he was bussing he would definitely whip up some kind of bullshit on why he thought Imaginality was a wolf.

Honestly I want to vote this out of the game because this slot should pretty much always be a wolf.

This is not

inconsistent

- if this is town, it is perfectly reasonable to progress from point A to point B when something significant happens (in this case, it seems the impetus was the empty vote from Staeg). But there's an awful lot of movement from this slot with a lot of professed certainty at various points along the way that I could see as town trying to solve the game, or as scum trying to sow confusion. I don't know that I'm going to resolve that tension until there is a flip or two to consider.

The Ceph take is really weird too. Specifically this:

Hasn't done anything that tickles my scumometer, other than paranoia about being too much on my wavelength

How is Ceph on your same wavelength? Ceph's like only on his own wavelength. And you two don't seem to think alike at all w/ regards to how you process info. What am I missing?

Ythan, why is Alisae your number two?

Have to admit it bothers me a bit that Cephrir's bottom 3 is exactly my "most likely scum group if I'm right about imaginality".

Bothers? Wouldn't this affirm you in some manner? At least that Ceph is thinking the same way?

Sure, but at the same time it makes me a bit paranoid going for a walk, having that grouping come to mind while thinking about the game, and then seeing that same group of players on the screen.

Cephrir was also the second vote on imaginality. We seem to be seeing the game the same way for the most part.

------

ngl 72 pages with no flips and constant back and forths, I don't know how to sort any further. I think it's great for future sorting but I think d1 has overstayed its welcome at this point. I'm hoping LLD comes back in fresh today, gives some final thoughts and we figure out who to consolidate on.

ngl I

hate

this post, and it's getting worse as I look through your ISO.

As of this post, I believe imaginality is at 5 (E-2). I think the only other player with multiple votes is Staeg with 2? In Rad's list (1608) imaginality is "Strong Lean Town" and Staeg is at the bottom (but no "solid scum read" on

anyone

)...

Let's not forget that Rad's sole vote in this game was for Marashu, in which he follows "And how are you still not understanding why I'd want to hold off on flipping a slot with 5 posts that could have repped out into a more readable player?" with "Here I'll replace your unvote since that wagon PL has suddenly become less scummy"... the unvote here was from LLD, and it seems like Rad's only strong take in this game is against LLD townslotting Marashu.

...but Rad wants to wait for LLD to come back and tell him who to vote for??

(If it makes you feel any better, Rad, you are separating yourself from Alisae in my read list.)

[mith]

Cephrir, thoughts on Rad?

[mith]

Haven't had much time today, but the hornet's nest thing stood out so real quick. Alisae:

1. Randomly votes me before I'm even awake and posting. Then sticks with that vote for what amounts to one post of a "slight" scumread which finds him

agreeing with me about LLD

, only suspecting that I didn't make a big enough deal out of 313 (which I happened to see on a skim just before pressing Submit) that he apparently didn't notice

despite being the target of said post

.
2. Then switches to LLD; a switch which had the backing of rationale not directly related to LLD at all, and the safety of Ythan and I already being on the wagon.
3. Posts rationale for the LLD scumread which

again involves agreeing with the subject of that scumread

.

I wouldn't exactly call any of this "poking the hornet's nest"? Even his attempted "dismantling" of my "junk case" is rather tame.

[previewedit]Hot take: PoE is overused, and gives scum something to hide behind when they're on a mislim wagon. Put yourself out there, read someone as scum.

(I'm having a real hard time squaring sarcastic/trolly Rad with "I just want to see the best in everyone, please tell me who to vote for Ali" and "Why oh why should I even play if you're just going to come after me tomorrow?" Rad.)

[mith]

I also need to figure out Ythan and LLD but I'm worried if I say their names three times it'll summon them

I think if Imaginality is a wolf, saying that there is bussing going on between you and LLD is quite daring

That's... not what he said though? 961 as a reminder, but imaginality said he didn't think it was bussing, inserted non sequitur about what he speculates I would do as town, concludes "distancing more than bussing". (All of which is, as a reminder, a response to a direct accusation of playing both sides of mith-LLD. Not exactly coming out firing with "here's why they're scum together, die scum die", just "my gut was good last game" and sticking with the scumreads.)

[mith]

Mith do you still scumread Staeg?

I still lean scum on Staeg, yes, primarily for the Rad/Marashu/Gimli interaction and the naked vote. I'm starting to doubt my initial thought that you might be scum together, though.

[mith]

Jingle thinks this sequence is actually kinda clearing for ali on top of anything/everything else bc if e was scum e’d have made them in the scumpt

Had the same reaction (with the obligatory soupçon of WIFOM). It's a weird sequence for scum to post.

Going to try to at least skim recent posts the rest of the day in case something big happens that affects my reads, but I'm going to be away from the house most of the afternoon and evening. Happy with my vote, in spite of imaginality's rock solid case that I should switch to someone I suspect less so that the vote counts are even.

[mith]

Just got home, been skimming but not much happening. Ythan still needs to weigh in, don’t want to see a hammer before that (but hey, any scum out there who are impatient and want to give yourself away, you go right ahead).

Did get in a game of Ark Nova with Thesp this evening and managed a respectable (positive) score, so that was nice.

[mith]

A song parody from the genre of movie I get to watch most often these days:

kuribo is quoting Hit 'Em Up at me now, thanks a lot.

gimli rad imaginality

Have to admit it bothers me a bit that Cephrir's bottom 3 is exactly my "most likely scum group if I'm right about imaginality".

Was it really just this easy? Rad's Ali-sheeping and "you won't get any "I knew it!" from me if he flips town." is so bad. Gimli appears to be going out of his way to find reasons to not vote imaginality, and the flopping back and forth between Marashu and Staeg gives the appearance of trying to have an out for a Staeg lim over imaginality while being able to say "well I *really* wanted to lim someone else all along".

------

We're about day away from deadline. I believe the vote count is 5-5, with LLD (expressing virtual vote for imaginality), Gimli (has voted Staeg), and Ythan not voting. We need a decision now-ish.

[mith]

I’m content with my vote where it is, but I should be around tomorrow night in case movement needs to happen to get to a lim.

The stalling of the imaginality wagon is just leaving me more confident that he is scum. I’d vote Rad over Staeg right now if it came down to that.

[mith]

How about this. We kill imaginality here. If town, we kill between mith ceph and Mena tomorrow. If scum, you can kill me.

I dare anyone to come up with a mindset this post makes sense from other than knowing imaginality is town

Why suggest killing him if you're that sure he's town

This and the whole “I think Staeg is town but I’m following Alisae around like a lost puppy”. Eesh. Didn’t think I would be persuaded off imaginality, but here we are.

UNVOTE: imaginality
VOTE: RadVOTE:

[mith]

Bah, close tag fail.

[mith]

This game is giving me whiplash.

I won't be voting for anyone other than Rad or imaginality; I think it's very likely at least one is scum. Staeg seems unlikely to be scum except with Rad, I think (2296 in particular is weird if Staeg is scum and Rad/imaginality are both town; and Staeg staying on the imaginality wagon in 2178 makes even less sense if they are scum together and Rad is town).

Prior to 2118, when I discussed Rad's mounting suspicion with kuribo we were of the mindset that Rad scum seemed more likely if imaginality scum. 2118 makes a lot less sense in that light though; at the time it was posted, Staeg was the leading wagon in terms of actual votes (and essentially tied in expressed preferences; Cephrir had been voting imaginality and LLD was a virtual hammer vote, while Gimli had been on Staeg briefly and would be again soon after). I guess I could see this as an attempt to distance in hopes that Staeg is the lim anyway? After all, Rad isn't unvoting and switching to imaginality with that post.

Sticking with Rad for now, but I'll be around if I need to move.

jingle says that given that rad/imag are essentially the same wagon the mechanically correct thing to do is to lim imag first, idk how my fellow imag/rad voters feel about that

Who do you think is more likely to be scum?

[mith]

[aside]kuribo and I were discussing site meta, and I just realized that this is

already

the longest (in terms of posts) game I have ever been a part of (almost certainly not by word count though).

I'm old enough to remember when games lasted fewer pages than players.[/aside]

[mith]

Koba is telling me I have to share their latest team solve which is exactly rad/imag/gimli but I don’t believe it’s that easy and think one of those is probably wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised with 2/3

Ooh, is this where I use that overly large discord emoji thing?

gimli rad imaginality

Have to admit it bothers me a bit that Cephrir's bottom 3 is exactly my "most likely scum group if I'm right about imaginality".

Was it really just this easy?

Also curious what Koba thinks of 2118 re: a Rad+imaginality pairing.

[mith]

What's there to follow up on? No one took the offer. You want me to pester people about it?

Why make that offer at all? If you are town, what was your thought process?

[mith]

What's there to follow up on? No one took the offer. You want me to pester people about it?

Why make that offer at all? If you are town, what was your thought process?

No one was paying attention to my scum reads so I wanted to gamble on imaginality being town so the focus could correct itself in the direction I believed in.

Just to be clear: You wanted to gamble on imaginality being town by limming imaginality, who has claimed a role that is undoubtedly useful if imaginality is town. And when you said this, you were voting for Staeg who you

also

think is town.

If anyone from the teams of: mara, ythan, bella, Mith is currently reading our game and reading this message please try to ping them and tell them to come now

[mith]

Minor work crisis, sigh.

I am trying to keep tabs on things, remain happy with vote.

[mith]

Just checking in. Haven't had much time to read (end of the month, gotta get patreon stuff together!) but some very quick thoughts:

1. Nothing much has changed for me on imaginality. I need to do a reread, especially on his comments about the Staeg and Rad wagons. I can believe that, if he's town, he might have protected Gimli. My gut says that he

did

target Gimli, but as scum rolecop. (Is it weird to anyone else that he answered that question with "I targeted Gimli" rather than "I protected Gimli"?)

2. Gimli's vote for me seems to be... based on nothing other than having half the remaining players in a PoE? Ok?

Can't say I care for his start to D2. Feels like scum itching to drive a mislim they've been discussing during the night.

3.

was I supposed to shoot Imaginality? Merde.

I was just about to ask you about this. Why did you not?

4. I have no idea what to make of Alisae's play at the end of D1 at this point. I think I might have to swipe some of LLD's drugs to get on that wavelength.

(In all seriousness, though: LLD, hope everything goes well, take care of yourself <3)

[mith]

Re. mith: "(Is it weird to anyone else that he answered that question with "I targeted Gimli" rather than "I protected Gimli"?)"

I said targeted rather than protected, because I didn't protect Gimli - because the night results show no one shot at him. I just sat around doing paperwork rather than putting my doctory talents to use.

So... I'm a little surprised imaginality even felt the need to defend this. But now I can ask a related question:

Is it weird to anyone else that imaginality said "I targeted Gimli" rather than "I protected Gimli", defended this by saying he used "targeted"

deliberately

because of the night results... but despite apparently thinking through whether it was more accurate to use "targeted" or "protected" wasn't consistent about it and used "protect" four lines later?

I believe the imaginality UB claim. Whether it is town or scum I didn't know.

if you're scum you're either true claiming (about the slot choice at least, probably rolecop over UB), you've swapped claims with another player who is scum higher up the order who actually got UB, or you're betting UB fell out of the draft based on scum picks.

[mith]

Ok, I can buy that you meant that.

What's your read on Alisae right now?

[mith]

[aside]he/him is fine, they/them doesn't bother me either, I haven't been particularly active since pronouns were added and forgot to update it[/aside]

i think you are wasting time with this. nobody that doesn't already think imaginality is scum is going to be convinced by this. i'm voting him right now and even i don't think this is indicative of his alignment at all.

You're allowed to think that. I have always found little wording things worthwhile. (See also: why I had Cephrir as my strongest townread yesterday.) There's an inconsistency here, and questioning it has the potential to illicit interesting responses (like imaginality feeling the need to defend that choice of wording, or you and Alisae arguing over whether it says anything about my alignment).

(I would absolutely point out the same thing as scum, though, and really Shea should know better.)

------

Re: 530

this seemed pretty slimy. They're pushing LLD could play this way like a wolf but not trying to assess if it is actually coming from a wolf or if it comes from town

1. This is rather vague, and I'm curious now what you think "trying to assess" looks like. This is the first game I've played with LLD, and things like "in a way that doesn't strike me as productive for town, where I can see plenty of benefit for scum" and "I particularly don't care for the start of the argument with Ythan."

are

trying to assess her alignment, while being cognizant of the fact that I don't know how she typically plays and leaving room for interaction on this (both with her and with others).

2. As a reminder (she already quoted herself on it) here's her original reaction to it:

Like reading this, it seems like you think LLD's actions are something that could come from a wolf but I feel like if you're a wolf, it's pretty easy to want to push a read like this and hang onto it.
You could also be a villager and this is a valid concern. This is something I'm thinking about as well but I hoping I can get a clearer answer as to what's going on if I just let the game develop and just let LLD do what she wants to do.

...which seems to be exactly what she's accusing me of here? I didn't notice this before, but the structure of the post is pretty strange:

a. mith could be scum, it would be easy to want to push a read like this (on LLD)
b. mith could also be town

and this is a valid concern

c. What's a valid concern? Not my alignment, as the last sentence is all about LLD. (If the concern here was my alignment - that is, she considers it a valid concern that I might be town - we would expect the last sentence to be about letting the game develop and

assessing my alignment

, not getting a clearer answer by letting "LLD do what she wants to do".)

Unless my reading comprehension is in the toilet here ( ), this is saying that

"LLD actions are something that could come from a wolf" is a valid concern

(but that I could be scum for pointing that out)?

Re: 877

this doesn't age well when you consider their rad progression.
This is a good post if you want to create more discord.

877 ages so terribly if we consider that in that moment he's siding w/ Rad but as his read on Rad progresses he starts calling Rad out for wanting to sheep me.

? I was "siding w/ Rad" specifically over whether his question about top 4 vs. top 5 was a reasonable one. My post had nothing to do with Rad's alignment at all (scum are capable of asking reasonable questions).

Re: 1166

This post tries to come across more as ironclad and wanting to look good over actually wanting to be right. Maybe I just hate post by post analysis but this whole post reads like it was crafted by a wolf.

Saying you hate post by post analysis in the middle of a post by post analysis is a choice.

This is just how I post sometimes. As town or as scum

Re: 1551

This reads like a wolf twisting what is happening in the gamestate to bullshit.

In what way did I twist the gamestate?

Re: 1780

I feel like there were other posts from people talking about how Rad was willing to sheep me. I don't think I could find the very specific post I was thinking of and I really want to go look for it but this felt slimy. Felt like a wolf seizing the moment.

Haven't got a clue what your point is here. 1780 wasn't about Rad sheeping you, it was about his bizarre voting history.

Re: 2152

This is a vote I could see wolves making

And we've come full circle.

this seemed pretty slimy. They're pushing

LLD

mith could play this way like a wolf but not trying to assess if it is actually coming from a wolf or if it comes from town

[mith]

No specific experience, and actually hadn't realized until I did a search that we played together so infrequently; we've played in all of one game together start to finish 15 years ago so maybe it's a bit much to expect Shea to remember details of how I play. (We did have a ton of arguments over minutiae

outside

of games, of course.)

(But: hey Shea, remember that time we were townies in a newbie game, limmed Mafia D1, and then proceeded to lose the game after you quickhammered the Cop D2? )

[mith]

it didn't seem like you were looking for things that were alignment indicative. Bringing down to just "how productive is this" isn't trying to assess. When I think of "trying to assess" I think of trying to look for what town and wolves actually do and this didn't seem to be that.

If I had brought it down to

just

"how productive this is", you might have a point?

Anyway, how I assess players' alignment is going to be different from how you (if you're town) assess players' alignment is going to be different from how anyone else assesses players' alignment. If there were a checklist for scum and town behavior, this would be a rather dull game and I would question why this site still exists after 21 years.

It's pretty easy I feel for mafia to go in this situation "look at how unproductive ythan and LLD there's no way this can come from town!" It takes actions and the events that happened and constructs how they could have come from a wolf instead of actually try to find truth.

And if I had just camped my vote on LLD on solely this basis and done nothing else all day, you might have a point? (This is a pretty terrible mischaracterization of what I was saying in that post.)

Unless my reading comprehension is in the toilet here ( ), this is saying that "LLD actions are something that could come from a wolf" is a valid concern (but that I could be scum for pointing that out)?

So, just to be extra clear on this, Alisae is claiming that she:

1. Thought it was concerning that LLD's actions could come from scum.
2. Thought I could be scum because I was pointing this out.
3. Does not see the irony inherent in 1 and 2.
4. Made no effort to "actually try to find truth" about whether I would point this out as town or scum.

Is that accurate?

694 goes to exclaim "Look at this scummy thing that they're attacking this player for! They haven't even done the thing they're talking about themselves" which comes across as wanting to be justified > wanting to be right and tbh this is the whole vibe I read the post.

Hypocrisy is a pretty big deal to me; town that are actually thinking about the game and what other players are doing tend to not accuse people of being scummy on the basis of something they themselves are doing (or at least have the self-awareness to recognize that they are and take it into account), whereas scum slip in this regard on account of not actually believing what they're saying. (And yes, I want to be justified in making any point, and especially when I'm making a case on someone; first to justify it to myself - is this really scummy or am I just annoyed by it or tunneling because OMGUS or reading it wrong or... - and then to justify it to the rest of the town to prompt action.)

You're taking what Staeg did and trying to twist it to make it sound like it comes from a wolf. Spinning Staeg's vote to be bussing allows you to keep both in your suspect pool.

(This doesn't answer what I "twisted", but it misses the point anyway.)

This was addressed in 1619:

My point here is not "Staeg is definitely bussing"; my point is that vote is not moving the needle for me much on reading

imaginality

, and my initial thought on Staeg after reading that vote was "huh, maybe they're scum together".

If I were going to base my entire read of a game on a single empty vote, my conclusion there would have been "Staeg is unlikely to be scum

unless

with imaginality or maybe Marashu, I won't be voting for Staeg over imaginality today". We already had a whole discussion about this at the time which IIRC ended with you saying you had missed my point re: what scum might do if given the option, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you are again missing my point.

(Also, why bring up that I had a different reaction in the first place if I were scum? What would this accomplish?)

Haven't got a clue what your point is here. 1780 wasn't about Rad sheeping you, it was about his bizarre voting history.

how exactly?

This is getting a bit ridiculous if I have to explain how a post about Rad's voting history (or lack thereof) that does not mention Rad sheeping you is about his voting history (or lack thereof) and not about Rad sheeping you. (I mentioned you at the very end in reference to the beginning of 1780, which you did not quote, regarding Rad's question about whether my difficulty reading him was related to my difficulty reading you.)

------

Haven't decided on a vote yet. kuribo thinks there is scum in Alisae/Datisi. I lean more toward Alisae, though a reread of Datisi is warranted. My gut still says imaginality is scum. I have a cold, so I'm going to go sleep on it and hope my head feels better in the morning.

[mith]

Checked in for surgery

<3

If you have a chance before the drugs:

talking feels pointless...
seems like I can't talk myself out of a paper bag...

Maybe I can't explain why the posts are scummy but that's what my gut tells me to go w/

Anyone care to comment on whether she makes this post as town or as scum?

[mith]

Maybe I'll focus on the shift from me to Rad because I feel like scum could have let town drive any of the wagons but that's the point where there was most risk to scum so makes sense scum might be more active in making sure the counter-counter-wagon coalesced on a townie.

Curious about this. Why do you think scum would have been concerned about making sure it coalesced around Rad vs. staying on you? (I can think of a few reasons of varying likelihood; but at the moment this feels like throwing out a very lazy VCA to justify voting me.)

Also:

On the plus side, having confirmation (from my perspective) that me, Staeg and Rad was TvTvT seems like it'll be rather helpful for rereading D1.

I'm particularly interested in looking back to see who led the consolidation on Rad

as that seems like the moment where scum were potentially at most risk (if at least one of the other possible options was scum, and if none of them are we're probably screwed anyhow), so it seems like a point in the day when scum were most likely to have been actively trying to influence things.

I wanted to look at who switched wagons when on D1 but digging through the 100 pages is demotivating.

Maybe I'll focus on the shift from me to Rad

Emphasis mine. imaginality was particularly interested in looking at the consolidation on Rad... then later says maybe he'll focus on the thing that he had already said he was particularly interested in. This is not a genuine thought process.

VOTE: imaginality

[mith]

I feel like that's why it's important to look at who made sure the wagon shifted to Rad rather than say to Gimli.
It's not about why it shifted from me to Rad, it's about why it didn't shift to someone else instead.

Your analysis on this point in 2788 seems to consist of "here's a list of all the players who switched to Rad initially or said they would vote Rad, minus the confirmed town Cephrir and Staeg". There is no analysis whatsoever about the timing of those votes, the potential scum motivation, nothing. No acknowledgement that I switched to Rad

less than two hours after Staeg was put at E-1

, because that doesn't fit the narrative of "Staeg wagon stalled and scum were worried". (And never mind that Menalque and Datisi switched to Rad, then back to imaginality, then back to Rad. This would seem to be relevant to someone feeling this was an important thing to look at, and surely imaginality is aware that they were voting for him again for a bit.)

This isn't what scumhunting looks like. This isn't what town trying to solve the game looks like. It's just the barest surface reading that amounts to "Rad flipped town, let's lim mith for it because there might be momentum there".

As for @mith's "contradiction" about me, yesterday evening I was feeling optimistic about analysing more. Started doing one of those vote count things highlighting conftown. Then realised the gaps between vote counts are too big making it pointless so narrowed my focus to just reread 10 or so pages rather than 100

It wasn't a "contradiction". You just said essentially the same thing you had already said, reasoning and all, only the second time you tried to make it seem like an organic transition from a full reread to focus on one specific aspect (again, amounting to going after the Rad wagon with no analysis of the context) and failed miserably. To reiterate:

2686: "I'm particularly interested in looking back to see who led the consolidation on Rad"
2788: "I wanted to look at who switched wagons when on D1 but digging through the 100 pages is demotivating.

Maybe

I'll focus on the shift from me to Rad"

You simply don't say this if you have already had the thought that you were particularly interested in the consolidation on Rad. You say this if you slip up trying to justify a weirdly timed vote (if anything changed on your read of me between start of D2 and your vote, you sure didn't express that; I suspect you just waited until there were two votes already on me).

------

Will try to do some analysis on other players tomorrow. (I am behind on everything, so I don't think I am going to have time tonight.)

I would very much like to get reads from Ythan, Marashu, and Menalque ASAP (and LLD when able).

[mith]

...how on earth are we letting imaginality off the hook

again

?

If you are town, go read 2792 and 2813. Explain how imaginality as town has this thought process, or get on board. (If you are scum, continue to ignore it, it will make the rest of the game easier, kthxbye)

Responses so far:

Marashu - "As for imag, I could see this slot acting this way both as town and as mafia." (Explain how imaginality as town has the thought process expressed D2. This is a lazy take.)

Datisi - "i still want to absolutely kill imaginality, but this kind of play from ythan is fucking unacceptable" (No. We lim the obvious scum, and we sort out Ythan tomorrow. I agree her play is unacceptable, and if she's town doing this and continues to do it expect an epic rant from me after the game. But we need to lim scum today.)

Bellaphant - "Imag's posts read town-y one post and scummy the next." (In what way have imaginality's posts ever looked town-y today? What is imaginality contributing to solving the game and finding scum?)

Menalque - "I'm aware there's a thing with mith that I haven't read yet" (please do)
"last word from jingle was that we should leave him another day and if he fails to save again then yes we should kill him" (This is a bad take. If you think imaginality is scum, vote him. If you don't, don't.)

Alisae - shifting discussion to lurkers, ignoring the D2 imaginality discussion (Is she town deathtunneling on her bad mith take and therefore isn't going to listen to me? Maybe. It's hard to see her as scum with imaginality just on the numbers clashing, but if not for that she's the most blatant deflector for imaginality.)

LLD - nothing (Understandable; still bothered by the vig choice, having a hard time believing town!LLD doesn't just shoot imaginality)
Gimli - nothing
Ythan - nothing

[mith]

?? I've said a lot more about imag, mith, weird take

Didn't say it was the only thing you've said about imaginality; it's the most

recent

thing you've said about him [note to self, there's one more thing I want to add here but I want to wait for a response first], and I'd like to know what posts he has made that look "town-y". You made a statement, back it up.

I have you (and Datisi) as solidly town at the moment, but that doesn't mean I'm going to ignore your recent posting that seems out of place to me. I could be wrong about you.

[mith]

I think Gimli has a pretty high chance of being scum with imaginality (second to LLD at the moment?). The vote on me is lazy PoE, and a natural place for scum to try to push a wagon after a Rad mislim.


Bella, I'm asking specifically about the D2 posts, but sure, we can take a quick detour.

Does scum make these sorts of posts? They feel quite natural and progression focused and also are hard commuting to a position, such as the buddies. I dunno, I don't often see scum take really hard stances day one?

I have to once again recognize that I haven't played in ages, but absolutely they *can* make these sorts of posts. My impression of the meta these days is that there is a whole lot of hero solving and PoE going around, why wouldn't scum try to emulate that?

Not that imaginality was doing a good job even of that; his case against me was basically nothing (even hypocritical), his switch to LLD was strange. He reevaluates that LLD read in 1768 so that he can give a town!LLD PoE, then comes back to LLD+mith in 2025, then it's mith+Cephrir+Staeg in 2207 (that has aged well). All of this strikes me as scum throwing stuff out there to survive the day, not town actually trying to solve the game and potentially contribute reads if they are a mislim.

On the flip side, looking back a lot of the posts feel....crafted although that could be a playstyle thing.

Yes, and look how that continues into D2; crafted posts to give the impression of doing some sort of VCA only there's not actually anything to his "conclusion" and it shows through as he trips over his words.

His "progression" in those posts are the equivalent of "I need a new shirt, I'm particularly interested in blue shirts because that's what I look best in" then going to the store and complaining "There are too many shirts. Maybe I should just focus on blue shirts because that's what I look best in, yeah that's better, here are four blue shirts that I won't bother to try on because I already bought one of them before I came in the store". There is nothing natural or progression focused about this; it's just a slip from scum trying to present something they don't genuinely believe.


(Unrelated, but the Staeg kill strikes me as at least a reasonable attempt to push the "D1 was TvTvT" thing imaginality has been pushing, and if imaginality were actually town I would expect more analysis of the Staeg wagon. And note that he has mentioned Gimli several times re: draft position but completely ignores Gimli's vote positioning - both D1, and voting for me today. That would seem to be important if one were concerned about vote analysis and thinking Gimli is one of the best two lim options.)


[previewedit]
Scum gonna fish for power roles.
For the rest of the audience: If scum haven't already figured out where the power roles ended up, why are some of you trying to help them finish the job? Why was it posed (Jingle, via Menalque) that we should lim imaginality

tomorrow

and give him time to use his actual likely role (rolecop) one more time?

imaginality's plan here amounts to "let's actively try to lim power roles"
[/previewedit]

[mith]

Also, why is everyone so grumpy? There's a weird level of bitchiness, makes the game boring.

Oh, and I'm not grumpy, if this was directed at me. I like arguing, and I like asking questions about little things. If I were grumpy, you would know.

[mith]

Ythan, thoughts on imaginality D2?

[mith]

Ythan, thoughts on imaginality D2?

[mith]

Family is sick yet again (son has strep). I tested negative but have a sore throat and feel crappy. So ready for him to be out of school next week so we don’t get exposed to as much.

Menalque’s 2982 is weird. Not sure what to make of it right now.

My current most-likely-imaginality-buddies are LLD and Gimli in some order. Figured I’d put that out there in case I’m the nightkill. Not going to overthink solving the game though, we flip obvscum first and find the next scum D3.

[mith]

I think LLD town shoots imaginality last night. And I’ve noticed LLD keeps positioning as willing to lim imaginality without actually voting there (apart from the initial “lim a 6” thing of course).

kuribo feels more strongly about the Gimli choice, FWIW. (And I would have you, Alisae, and the most likely - for what should be obvious reasons - if not for the number clash; can’t completely rule out a gambit, but it does still seem unlikely.)

[mith]

Menalque’s 2982 is weird.

it is a copypasta

Ok, so deliberately weird. Thanks

(I typed “debliberatly” the first time, and this amuses me more than it should.)

[mith]

Why would she place a vote given her circumstances?

Today? No, obviously reasonable for her not putting imaginality at E-1 when she's on drugs and barely posting, whatever her alignment. It's her D1 that looks off to me in the retrospect of imaginality obvscum and the vig claim.

I disagree completely I don't think Imaginality and LLD are aligned. Imaginality would probably not push LLD at all if this were the case. At least he would get an earful from LLD in the wolf PT if he did and then likely back off, tr them because she loves being tr by her buddies, and move how LLD wants him to move. That's what happened in election lol.

You might be right. I'm not relying on meta here at all (and I get the impression LLD is a strong enough player to play around her own meta anyway). If LLD is so controlling as scum, I could see that as a point in favor of not being imaginality's buddy.

i really don't think this is partner-indicative for lld, this doesn't stop the imag yeet and doesn't give her towncred, all it does is give some ~wifom defense~ which like i don't think it's worth it

Do you think partner-LLD outright defends imaginality in that position (more like Alisae's D1 play after the claim)? Hard bus? What do you think she does?

(And to be clear where I'm standing here: top two most likely buddies does not equal 95% certainty this is the scum team. This is more "in case I'm the nightkill, this is where I am right now".)

Lld and moth were high in your own trs, especially curios on those

[mith]

also, if that's just 2 people who sr mith, I'm sure there's more, so we agree mith is maf, but we're voting out someone who cased mith?

like, do we just want to find another scumread here, cause even if imagin is scum, he's not the only one

Cool. So... anyone want to try to tell me this comes from town?

Andante, if you somehow

are

town:

If you are town, go read 2792 and 2813. Explain how imaginality as town has this thought process, or get on board. (If you are scum, continue to ignore it, it will make the rest of the game easier, kthxbye)

[mith]

(Ironically, I've been in bed most of the day, possibly with strep.)

[mith]

Finally.

Andante almost certainly the lim tomorrow, that hammer seems like a desperate attempt to reclaim

some

semblance of towncred after a disaster of an entrance. Like “oh crap I really gave myself away there what if I do a 180 and hammer to salvage this”.

I still think LLD is worth a look as the third, but we’ve got time to figure that out; Ythan a strong possibility too.

[mith]

Datisi is very likely town, but the thought that he could be scum with imaginality and Andante and having to post things like 2812 and 3123 is hilarious.

[mith]

Anyway mith who do u want to lead me to believe is mafia today? Hmm????

[mith]

Ok, that was funny timing on the downtime.

I think I'm in favor of massclaim. I think Andante should claim before Ythan but otherwise I don't know that the order matters much.

[mith]

Could be? Sure. Likely to be? No.

[mith]

<3 LLD

</3 Ali
Why do you think I'm scum?

The whole Jingle thing cracks me up. (Jingle's suggestion is obviously not strictly better than LLD's suggestion; any amount of "late draft order has potential to catch early draft order fakeclaiming" we gain is negated by loss of "early draft order has potential to catch late draft order fakeclaiming".)

The order we

should

be claiming in is scummiest first, but given that three of you are scum and we don't have conftown I don't know that we are going to get anything approaching a reliable consensus on that.

[mith]

Town mith thinks Andante scum based on entrance D2, sorry to disappoint.

[mith]

LLD, is Ali town?
Ali, is LLD town?

[mith]

I don't think anyone has told me to fuck off yet. I'm feeling left out.

Ali, is LLD town?

[mith]

mith waggling his 'ive got my eye on you ' finger at me

?

[mith]

Somepoint last day phase, before the moth thing. I'm not explaining myself well I think, I'll try again in the morning

I mean, I think I know what you're talking about, which was me asking you to explain something you said. I'm not sure how that gets lumped in with MOOD up there but ok.

[mith]

^

[mith]

LLD next?

[mith]

...is this one of those copypasta things again?

[mith]

Nah, kuribo will flip out at me if I join the M&M thing

[mith]

Yup, about as much as I hate PoE

[mith]

LLD next?

i mean, we've talked about my public uncontested gunshot a lot but, okay?

One shot vig, shot Ceph N1

Gotta make sure, just like with Ali.

I got N3 Vig.

[mith]

If n3 vig or vengeful has been chosen I think it 7is likely to be with Gimli or mith. Maybe Menalque but I doubt it goes lower than that.

If it went to scum they will cost us an extra slot if vengeful. Or if we let them carry out the vig.

We're currently 7-3. If we mislim and fail to protect tonight we're 5-3 tomorrow which is effectively elo if scum have vig/vengeful.

If I manage to protect someone tonight then tomorrow is 6-3 and we gain an extra day.

Yes, mafia can avoid that risk by targetting me. But then at least you've got my flip without having to lim me.

I think mith and Gimli are the best options for today's lim. Willing to consider Menalque.

I don't think it should be Ythan.

Now that I've claimed, can I rant about this a bit? imaginality, if you read this later, this is what sealed my scumreading you. You kept trying to argue that you should be kept alive

even if we thought you were scum

because you could potentially restore parity while simultaneously arguing that my slot needed to die in case it was scum. My (well, our, with kuribo) read on this was that you were either fishing for PR info or (more likely) you were the rolecop and already knew I was the N3 Vig.

Also says any vigs need to claim by D2 at latest because their scum utility is way higher than town utility and that’s amplified the higher in the draft they are

Also I don't want to hear anything else about how we need to listen to Jingle for open setup expertise if this was the expert opinion.

[mith]

There is absolutely no reason for a N3 Vig to claim on D2. All this accomplishes is giving scum N2 to take them out. Vig is a powerful role for town because it puts another kill into town hands; fishing for it is antitown.

[mith]

jingle: vig sucks as a role for town bc it almost always ends up killing town (as here) at the lopsided benefit of self-clearing and is disproportionately more powerful for scum

This is like arguing that limming sucks for town because it almost always ends up killing town. I get that it's appealing to say "oh noes a town vig could shoot town" but you are simply wrong from a game theory perspective.

And yes, a vig could also be powerful in the hands of scum. Obviously. It would give another scum-controlled kill. (For a single shot, how powerful it is for each alignment depends on the parity situation.)

forcing scum to kill there or risk getting shot is the utility of making them claim on D2

And this is like arguing a Cop should claim because it forces scum to kill there or risk getting a guilty on them. (This is a self-defeating argument. If Vig is a powerful enough role for town that scum are "forced" to kill it or "risk" getting shot, then it's a powerful enough role not to out itself on D2 for absolutely no reason. And if it sucks for town, why is scum forced to do anything? The vig is just going to almost always end up killing town, right?)

[mith]

Something like that.

There's a whole (old) thread about the power of a regular Vig here (apparently there was even some data on a Vig being more accurate than a Lim at the time, for whatever little that is worth). Obviously a lot of it doesn't apply to this game (roles aren't alignment indicating, the vig roles here are one-shot, and you have to account for the possibility of shooting another PR), but the main take away is extra kills controlled by town = good, duh.

------

I am also going to be LA Thursday and Friday, but I'll check in at some point. And probably I need to be done posting for the night, it's dinner time.

Andante is next to claim, lest that get lost in the shuffle.

[mith]

Andante, claim.

[mith]

Andante, claim.

[mith]

No good reason for Andante not to have claimed by now as town.

[mith]

She has to see them on preview though?

[mith]

saying there's no good reason for Andante not to have claimed by now as town to me is just egregious.
Honestly her posting makes me think she isn't in a wolf PT. I feel like Andante would check her wolf PT before posting because she's not a good wolf player.

This is a fair point. There’s not much reason for her to be doing this as scum either. kuribo and I were speculating that it was stalling but there’s really no reason she posts while stalling vs not post while stalling.

[mith]

Andante is next to claim, lest that get lost in the shuffle.

im vt in case that wasn't obvious by me not fully caring to get caught up yesterday

This is not a full claim. What are you claiming you tried to pick?

[mith]

/Gimli tried to pick. You know what I mean.

[mith]

There is absolutely no reason for a N3 Vig to claim on D2. All this accomplishes is giving scum N2 to take them out. Vig is a powerful role for town because it puts another kill into town hands; fishing for it is antitown.

> there is no reason to claim it
> just claimed it

Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[mith]

Yes? I dunno, I’m just gonna take a bath now.

[mith]

She definitely does if she's scum I think it's fairly obvious and I've stated why. It would be one thing if you disagreed and said why but you're kinda just ignoring the facts.

ok, this is me disagreeing. She has teammates if she’s a wolf they would probably just tell her to do x and they would have done it already

kuribo and I are discussing this: They would do this if her claim was nailed down prior to massclaim. If she’s scum with Ythan, thar would be the case, they could have already worked out what their claims would be. But it Ythan is town and the plan is to claim VT, scum have to wait to see other claims before they can try to guess Ythan’s.

On the other hand: why would scum put her in a position of fakeclaiming VT in the first place? If that player needs the coaching, why make it depend on stuff happening in real time?

[mith]

I imagine being yelled at by red username could be the peer pressure that Andante needed to just do what they say?

This is not how I would approach being scum with Andante (or anyone). My scum philosophy has always been hands off with buddies so that I can react naturally to what they're doing in the thread.

I mean, ok, you don't know my meta and are either scum trying to make weird implications about how I

could

be scum (wasn't this what you were accusing me of doing previously?) or you're town and don't know how to read me without meta.

But aside from meta, this take (and Mena's "if mith felt under threat there") just doesn't make any sense in the situation we were in yesterday. When Andante entered the game, the vote count was 4 on imaginality (me, Mena, Datisi, Ali), 2 on me (imag and Andante herself), 1 on Ythan (Bella).

Bella - 3028 "I just want to hear from ythan and andante , consider my vote on in spirit."
LLD - 2956 "Yeah I'm down to kill the slot that can write paragraphs about why certain slots are town. Ut only 2 words about why I am scum as if it covers anything."
Marashu - 3042 "I think I've come around on an imag elimination."
Ythan - nothing about either imag or me

As town I was confident enough that imag was the lim and would flip scum that I was already giving thought to who his scumbuddies were. If I were scum in that position, I would have been equally (if not more) confident that imag was the lim, and I certainly wouldn't have been yelling at my hypothetical scumbuddies to get on a mislim with me.

Lld doesn’t have partners

Why do you think LLD doesn't have partners? It's bugging me that this is the sole reason you're giving currently for thinking LLD is town; it feels like the sort of manipulating-the-associatives thing that I was good at as scum in the old days.

[mith]

(Also, the "bad player" and "awful" stuff is bordering on personal attacks.)

Actually, on that point: you were scum with Andante in a previous game. What were they doing in that game that made them obvscum?

[mith]

*What was she doing in that game that made her obvscum?

[mith]

if he does try to manipulate it, he's scum.

Jingle is very well-known to give correct meta regardless of alignment

?

[mith]

who was actually descently caught up on hood

Curious about this. Mena was caught up in the neighborhood but not in the game? Or am I misinterpreting here?

[mith]

Open question: Do Datisi and Mena gambit as scum and both pick 1?

[previewedit]I mean, I agree that not limming me is pro-town because I know I'm town, but "If he's scum, we've lost anyway" is weird. If you're town and think I'm scum, you lim me.

I would love to be able to argue that you shouldn't lim me even if you were 99% certain I was scum, but that's not how the math works.[/previewedit]

[mith]

[mathsaside]

If I were scum and had the vig, the extra shot isn't actually relevant (in the current gamestate). The reason it would be bad play (if you were that certain I was scum) is that town would be decreasing the chances of finding scum today (if leaving me alive) vs. tomorrow (if limming me, and then nolim to restore parity).

That's with no extra information of course (just a hypothetical setup where there are 3 Mafia, one having a one-shot vig, and 5 Townies). But I'm not going to speculate on what extra info we might have until massclaim finishes.

Since I'm town, limming me is just game over, whereas leaving me alive both improves our chances of hitting scum today (from 0 to 3/7) and gives us an out if we mislim. Our overall EV in the hypothetical no info setup would still be small (1/7) but obviously that's better than 0 (it's also quite a bit better than if I were just an IC with no vig, which is 1/35).

[mith]

jjh927: We're in massclaim, your slot is up, claim your role and what role your slot picked.

[mith]

Whether the positives are better than the negatives depends on how likely it is I'm scum vs. town.

I dunno, the "if he's scum we've already lost" thing just doesn't feel well thought out if you are town considering the pros and cons.

How much do you rely on mechanics generally, Bella?

[mith]

Question for Datisi: Were you aware of Mena always picking 1 in PYP? (Or do you have a counterexample where he didn't?)

[mith]

Yes. Claim, go.

[mith]

You're the one who told me initially but I'd listen to someone else

Otherwise I'm reading this from the front

Andante CLAIM

HOLY SHIT CAN THIS PERSON CLAIM

[mith]

Oh okay, VT then

What did Gimli try to draft?

[mith]

Finally.

Ythan, take us home.

[mith]

Do you want me around for whatever this bit is or can I get round to reading the game tomorrow

Wednesday is my in-office day so I'm always pretty tired around now

Do what you gotta do. But before you go, I'll ask this:

What are your team's reads of this game?

[mith]

I'd prefer you just finished claiming, please

[mith]

Ythan, I'm not answering this. I have to consider the possibility that you are scum.

[mith]

So basically you treat all of your wolf partners like NPCS? You wouldn't try to coordinate what to do or play as a team?

By "hands off" I don't mean no coordination whatsoever. (Though, back when night starts were a thing it was very common for me as scum to tell my partners I wasn't going to have any input on the initial kill. And to be fair, the last two games I played as scum were essentially vanilla, so there wasn't anything mech/PR related to discuss and plan for.)

Hands off just means I didn't tend to direct the team in any detail, and certainly wouldn't have ever

yelled

at a teammate to do something specific. I can't say for sure how I would have handled that hypothetical of being scum with Andante coming as a replacement, but it would not have been to yell at them to hammer.

I hate andante

Can you please stop saying things like this? We get that you're claiming you would've bussed that slot if you were scum together. This feels personal.

Weird votes, reactions, and positions and it seemed like their positions could be anything at any moment. There was also just the whole pl was also just way more townie than her but it didn't seem like they were like trying at all. When I was playing wolf w/ her, she spewed mostly everybody as town. Like she kind of just rolled over and died...
Andante as town finds someone she thinks is a wolf and just tunnels them, kinda like how they did with you. I can name 2 examples of this off the top of my head.

Reminder to myself to circle back on this after Ythan finishes claiming.

[mith]

I’ve had a crap night, think I’m caught up on everything relevant but I’m going to have to wait until morning to process it.

I would like everyone’s input on who I should shoot.

I’d like to hear Datisi’s reason for targeting Ythan, as well.

[mith]

Well, my crap night continued and I couldn't fall asleep til 2am. Fortunately my wife let me sleep in, I was already taking today off work, and now I've got some caffeine in me.

Datisi: Whose idea was it to target Ythan N2? Were you already planning to do this or did Mena suggest it first?
Why did you not target Ythan N1?

[mith]

Thinking through possibilities here:

LLD can only be scum if Ythan is also scum.
Ythan can only be scum if she took ascetic as scum over BP, or Datisi is also scum.

If jjh flips red, it's obviously not Datisi/Ythan/LLD. So Ythan/LLD/jjh would be the only possibility for LLD scum.

However, an Ythan gambit as buddies with jjh makes very little sense (whether with LLD or with someone else). If they are scum together, jjh's claim is definitely fake and would have to be JK or tracker. If tracker, that slot probably just claims tracker and the two of them work out pretty much any reasonable set of targets and results. If JK, Ythan could choose

anyone

to be a guilty (they wouldn't have to play around my vig, one mislim is all they would need). Flipping jjh red, removing their opportunity to stop my shot, and then Ythan still being alive tomorrow is insane risk.

So, it's safe for me to assume that both LLD and Ythan are town if jjh flips red.

I'm not going to 100% determine my target during the day in this scenario; it seems unlikely to me that there's a JK that isn't jjh, but just in case there is I want to force them to use it not being sure if they're stopping me from hitting scum or not.

As far as likeliest groups with jjh scum:

Individually, Alisae is the most suspect. The positioning around Andante/jjh feels like hoping to force through a mislim on me before the claims and then desperation after (scum Alisae would have to feel that I would most likely just shoot her). She reads as though she was legitimately annoyed that Andante replaced in; I don't know that I buy that scum Alisae definitely busses at the start of D3 in that scenario, either. If her claim is legit (and it would be a risk to claim she drafted N3 Vig without knowing if it was taken at all) she knows someone took that slot and that it's not on her team, and likely would have it narrowed down to me by now (D2 pretty much rules out Mena and Datisi having gotten it, scum with jjh would know Ythan drafted from the ascetic/BP slot, LLD is already claimed, and that just leaves Bella who could be the third or they just guess that it's a likely role for me to have picked); and again, scum Alisae probably assumes I shoot her. I think it's reasonable to expect Alisae/jjh/? would feel their best chance is to push a lim on me through for the instant win, lumping Ythan with me if Ythan's claims dictate that.

Mena is next, somewhat mirroring Ali in putting out the mith-is-scum feelers and then being most aggressive in questioning the plan of limming the guilty claim. I'm not sure how much sense it makes for Ali and Mena to both be scum, though? Like, unless they think it's the only way they salvage the game it seems like at most one scum would take this route and the other would try to blend in and survive. LLD, thoughts on this?

Bella, I'm not sure about. Before the claims, I was telling kuribo in discord that my gut thinks Bella is scum. I don't have anything concrete there though, this warrants a closer look in light of the claims and jjh scum.

Datisi... I think if this is a scum Neighborizer fishing for the ascetic cop, they likely do that N1? That can't be the case if Mena is town, and if they're scum together and targeted Ythan N1 she's just already dead, right? [previewedit]There's a ton of stuff while I've been writing this, I'll catch up on it in a bit[/previewedit]

------

If jjh flips green, obviously we just lose if there's a JK. If there isn't, we know Ythan is definitely scum and have to determine if scum Ythan takes ascetic cop or BP. I don't think it's completely out of the question that scum Ythan takes ascetic cop. There are enough roles potentially in this setup that would be able to counter a fake ascetic claim; taking BP is only playing around the two potential Vigs.

How risky this would be depends on where the other scum are in draft order - like, if the group actually was Ythan/me/LLD, with me and LLD both taking vig (or at least vig slots), the risk would be quite small; either that vig is not in town hands or we would immediately narrow down where that potential vig could be. If it's something like Ythan/Datisi/Alisae, the risk of Ythan getting hit by a vig goes up and maybe that makes it more likely she takes BP.

I think the most likely scenario if Ythan took ascetic as scum is that LLD is one of the buddies. It seems like the sort of play LLD would propose, and I could see her play today as trying to pocket me and get me to shoot Datisi. On the other hand, if Ythan took BP then Datisi must be scum.

What I'm trying to figure out in either of these scenarios is why Ythan doesn't just claim a guilty on me. I'm not an easy mislim, but in this game? There's no way I persuade all four other town to vote for Ythan with me, and I also couldn't argue for nolim since that's just a loss for town if I'm scum. The only thing I can come up with is that scum Ythan is worried about the potential for my fake claiming as town and that I actually took Vengeful. If scum believe that, a fake guilty wins on the spot if they're right, but it seems like it would be safer to just claim two innocents (or one with one on an already dead player) and probably the wagons consolidate on me and/or jjh anyway.

Anyway, that's what I'm pondering on: which Ythan draft fits best with the evidence in the event that jjh flips green?

[mith]

Actually, on that point: you were scum with Andante in a previous game. What were they doing in that game that made them obvscum?

Weird votes, reactions, and positions and it seemed like their positions could be anything at any moment. There was also just the whole pl was also just way more townie than her but it didn't seem like they were like trying at all. When I was playing wolf w/ her, she spewed mostly everybody as town. Like she kind of just rolled over and died...
Andante as town finds someone she thinks is a wolf and just tunnels them, kinda like how they did with you. I can name 2 examples of this off the top of my head.

Circling back to this as promised.

First, I don't agree with your assessment that Andante tunneled me. Andante came into the game with "why are we limming the doc claim who is making a case on mith??" to "mith said words, hammer time" to "oh no mith thinks i'm scum with imaginality mith must be setting something up" (which, btw, doesn't make a lot of sense if I were scum and Andante were town; I don't state Andante is bussing if I know imaginality is flipping town). The D3 play in particular seems like exactly the sort of thing you are describing in Andante's scum play.

Second: Let's visit a possibly hypothetical world where you are town, I am town, and jjh (Andante) is scum. Andante spews as scum; what does Andante's play (brief as it was) tell you?

[mith]

(Oh, btw, Ythan/Titus - the fact that you posed that question with Andante’s name (rather than jjh, or something like Gimli/Andante/jjh) made it obvious you were claiming an investigation there on N2. I may well have voted for you if you had claimed anything else after that.)

[mith]

I just took some NyQuil so I will either be asleep or incoherent in an hour or so. I’ll check back this evening.

[mith]

Hives are awful :/

I’m pretty sure I have caught the strep my family has been passing around.

Ali, I would still like a response to my question about Andante spew.

[mith]

Ali: Yes, I was super confident that imaginality would flip scum. I actually joked in my team’s discord that if imaginality flipped town I would have to vote for implosion for lying about the flip.

I did phrase the quoted parenthetical a bit more strongly than I actually believe: I am aware that I am perfectly capable as scum of acting something like I would as town in the same situation. That said, I still don’t think I would have come out as strongly for Andante-is-bussing-imaginality knowing that imaginality is town, and especially if I then intended to pivot to Andante-is-still-scum.

In reality, I had a sulk about imaginality’s play and then looked at Andante again in light of the flip. Asked team if they thought Andante was still scum, kuribo said **** yes and then D3 was upon us.

Anyway. Her “tunnel” on me is what, 5 or 6 posts mentioning me (about the same on Bella, who at one point she claims to possibly feel more strongly about) amongst 24ish posts in total (I hate trying to analyze posts from my phone btw, ugh), which are all over the place. A shot at LLD’s “pointless” posting, a weird “why are we so worked up about claim order we can just lim one and then the other right?”… this all seems to fit with “weird votes, reactions, and positions”?

(If I were basing things entirely on what you’ve presented as Andante-as-scum behavior, I would say it points pretty strongly to Bella also being town? I’m surprised you didn’t mention the Andante/Bella interaction, particularly given that you are now questioning whether Bella can be scum)

What I am taking away from Andante’s stay in the game is that:

1. Andante possibly saw something about me in her scum PT, questions why imaginality (with a “case” on me) is being voted
2. Andante then realized she could hammer a claimed doc and that seemed good enough
3. She then tried to avoid any responsibility for said hammer when it was pointed out how incoherent those initial posts were together and blamed it on too many words (this makes the earlier speculation that I might be her buddy and yelling at her to vote especially laughable - there is no universe where I would tell a scumbuddy they need to completely contradict their previous post and then claim they did it because I said a lot of words)
4. Hey maybe posting a lot of random quotes and reactions looks town?

[mith]

Yeah, thanks.

I was hoping to avoid the antibiotics too. I’m pretty sure the next superbug is brewing in my sinuses as often as I’m sick.

[mith]

Quick post because I’m watching TV with my wife, but:

The second sequence of posts just looks like scum Andante OMGUSes like crazy? Which is essentially what she did in this game, minus the actual voting?

I’m really not understanding how you would not be seeing this as the same scum behavior as the Micro, based on how you are framing it.

[mith]

As far as not believing you always bus Andante at the start of D3 if you’re both scum, it’s not that I don’t think you regret

not

bussing her in the Micro. It’s that the game situation here is so radically different - D1 with a wagon already forming vs start of D3 after two mislims and a misvig (never mind having this meta in your back pocket if defending the slot starts to backfire).

Of course you could choose to defend her while cursing your luck at being stuck with her as a buddy again. Maybe if you’re in this same situation 100 times you bus her some of them and don’t others, but the benefits of pushing for a mislim on me instead if bussing are pretty obvious here.

Anyway. I’m not particularly concerned with convincing you of what I think I would have done as scum vs what I did as town; and I’m certainly not going to convince you that what you’re saying about always bussing is wrong - either you’re town and genuinely believe it, or you’re scum and don’t.

I know you’re wrong about your solve, and either jjh flips red and disproves it, or jjh flips green and I have to shoot scum to save the game. What I *am* concerned with is making the right decision tonight. Right now, I don’t believe this is town Alisae post-Ythan-claim. I believe this is more likely to be scum Alisae with jjh buddy on the chopping block and seeing the writing on the wall about tonight.

[mith]

FWIW, kuribo says the same about my talking to you. He also said he wishes I were scum and you were town, he would have insisted I shoot you so he wouldn’t have read your posts.

I might be softening that a bit.

[mith]

This is for the people who think I'm Andante's teammate

Bellaphant - votes staeg
Datisi - votes staeg
Lady Lambdadelta - votes staeg
Menalque - votes staeg
mith - votes staeg
Ythan - votes staeg

You can't actually believe this is a good argument, right? You can't be scum with Andante because the third scum would always vote right along with you?

LLD, you are more familiar with Ali's play: is there any world where she's town? Is this how she tries to solve a game? (From my point of view, this is the sort of associative manipulation I did in my last scum game, only not at all subtle. I guess she doesn't have to be subtle if she thinks there is any chance of getting a mislim on me and thinks I shoot her tonight otherwise.)

[mith]

Dumbing that down to “you can’t think that the 3rd wolf would always vote with u” is an excellent way to misrepresent me

Dumbing what down? Misrepresenting what? You literally posted a list of every other player in the game with the claim that they vote Staeg as the 3rd. (Like, anyone else want to chime in on this? Am I missing something nuanced in that post?)

As far as "discrediting" what you say, I mean ur mafia so of course I'm going to discredit what you say.

For all your talk about the Staeg wagon, you haven't given a shred of analysis of why your supposed solve doesn't push the Staeg wagon over the top. You're just flooding the zone with claims that X player would vote Staeg if XYZ were the team. Maybe this is coming from a place of frustration that your team didn't come through and hammer that wagon?

[mith]

Dumbing what down? Misrepresenting what? You literally posted a list of every other player in the game with the claim that they vote Staeg as the 3rd. (Like, anyone else want to chime in on this? Am I missing something nuanced in that post?)

[mith]

She's apparently trying to say she can't be scum because if she were Staeg would definitely have been limmed D1. Which of course ignores the possibility that all three scum were already on the wagon, with Bella eventually unvoting after no hammer, and the possibility that some other partner might have wanted to not put all their eggs in Staeg's basket.

It also is completely at odds with her supposed "solve" of the game, none of whom were ever on Staeg. Apparently, all of us individually would automatically jump at the opportunity to have all scum on Staeg if we were parterned with Ali/jjh, but none of us would throw the last necessary vote on an otherwise all town wagon if we were scum together? But then we would shoot Staeg?

She has had a tendency most of this game to throw vague accusations my way (vibes or "slimy" or powerwolf or misrepresenting) that she can't actually back up when questioned (read our D2 interaction, starting from her 2739 and ending with "talking feels pointless..." / "seems like I can't talk myself out of a paper bag..." in 2784), instead just reiterating them over and over in hopes that it wears everyone else down? Except when she's following me on town wagons, of course.

Ali's voting history:

Day 1
Gimli
imaginality
Marashu
Datisi
Marashu
Staeg
Gimli (1117 re: 1114 "like that post justs spits in my fucking face it's gross"; unvotes in 1312 "I slept on it and I think I overreacted")
Rad
Rad (again after unvoting)
imaginality (1527 "I feel like Imaginality is a super safe elimination and I'm unsure on if I would want to run anyone else up.", 1530 "You wanna run someone else up to have them claim and give out more information?"")
Staeg (hits E-1 with Ali, Bella, Gimli, and three town)
imaginality (this switch doesn't fit at all with her earlier Staeg-scum-but-not-bussing-imaginality; in fact, when she votes, Staeg is the only player left on imaginality, with 5 on Rad and 4 counting Ali on Staeg)
Rad (hammer)

Day 2
Gimli
mith
Ythan
imaginality (2938 "maybe mith is town and this guy is just a wolf lmfao", 3051 "imaginality + adanante + ythan = game", Bella's 3061 "Thoughts on just limming andante?", 3062 "I would rather kill mith", 3063 "Imaginality is the anchor read for me right now", 3064 "at least Andante if we leave her alive will just openwolf and spew I'm honestly happy to just let her play. It's not like she's hard to read")

Day 3
jjh (briefly, eventually unvotes)

I kinda lost count of how many times she has "solved" the game.

[mith]

Thanks for the input, LLD. I don't see how this is town Ali at all, but I will definitely take how she follows through into consideration.

[mith]

Bella was on the E-1. Ali knows this, she’s been arguing Bella wouldn’t have unvoted.

It's difficult to pinpoint the exact origin of the myth that coins are more likely to land on tails in the northern hemisphere, but it is believed to be a relatively recent myth that likely arose in the 20th century.

There is little evidence to suggest that the belief was held prior to the 20th century. In fact, the earliest recorded mention of the myth appears to be in a 1969 article in New Scientist magazine, which cited a study that found a slight bias towards tails in a small sample of coin tosses conducted in the northern hemisphere. However, the study's results were not statistically significant and have since been called into question.

Overall, the myth that coins are more likely to land on tails in the northern hemisphere appears to be a modern misconception with no basis in fact or scientific evidence.

Vote Count 1.17

Staeg (6): Alisae, Bellaphant, imaginality, Marashu, Rad, Gimli
imaginality (3): Staeg, Datisi, Menalque
Rad (2): Cephrir, mith
Lady Lambdadelta (1): Ythan

Not Voting (1): Lady Lambdadelta

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate.

Deadline is April 27 at 10:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2023-04-28 01:00:00).

[mith]

it doesn't remotely look partnered, sorry

How does "No, we lim the obv scum today and sort out Ythan tomorrow" not look like they're partners with Ythan?

Publicly, to the alleged third scum of your solve. Neither Datisi switching to Ythan nor switching back (without comment IIRC?) after I put my foot down in public make much sense if we’re all scum together.

[mith]

Ali, the only world Mith is scu-

hold on

Mith why did you take N3 Gun over One shot gun which is the same power only you can use it any night?

My expected top three picks were from Ascetic Cop/BP, JK/Tracker, and 1-shot/PGO. Figured the N3 gun was likely to be there, and I do not have a history of dying early (as either alignment).

[mith]

I have never believed doctor is a particularly strong role for town outside completely broken setups. I do believe vig is a very strong role for town, because it is an extra town-controller kill.

[mith]

(I probably would’ve protected Cephrir as doc, which is pretty funny based on what happened N1)

[mith]

I think we’ve already established that we have wildly different beliefs regarding Mafia theory. Outside of “there is a guaranteed investigative power role which can claim D1 and be protected and not blocked”, doctor is pretty weak. In a setup where the most straightforward investigative role might go to scum and can’t be protected in the first place, and where other kills/blocks/protects are potentially happening, it’s especially meh.

Cephrir was my strongest town read, I would’ve protected there N1.

[mith]

Ali, I once talked scum into a draw in a completely won endgame. I once won a game of Assassins in the Palace IRL by eliminating every single guard. Outliers happen. ~shrug~

If you are town, we are going to have a talk after the game about your insane tunnel on me in this game and how it relates to you not understanding how the owner of the site who hasn’t played for ten years and has been pondering Mafia theory for about as long as you’ve been alive *might* have different thoughts on how to play the game.

If you’re scum, I mean, I get it, you have to try something here.

I’m gonna enjoy my bath now and then play some more TotK now that the kids are back.

[mith]

(To be perfectly clear here: *different* thoughts, not *better*. I am not always right, and you are active in the current meta. Happy to discuss more after the game, but the relative strength of a role that is no longer in the game is not at all relevant to determining your alignment.)

[mith]

There are two glaring problems with your approach, Ali.

The big one for me is: possible team compositions are easy to manipulate as scum. You get wrapped up in who is scum with who and you end up talking yourself out of the scummiest player because “they have no partners”. I literally won my previous two games on the site because of this.

Second, and more specific to the way *you* are arguing this, is that you are repeatedly ruling out possible teams over such things as “Mena probably does X D1” or “hey LLD you think me and Bella are town”. This sort of read *isn’t, can’t be, 100% certain unless you are scum*. LLD could, from her point of view, be wrong about me, or Ythan, or you, or Bella. Or maybe it’s just jjh/Datisi/Mena and you’re wrong about how Mena “probably” approaches D1. To argue that she can’t really think it’s jjh+Datisi+1 because it might mean one of her town reads is wrong is absurd.

[mith]

“Day 1 played out how it did because wolves didn't want to do Staeg because they thought if they were a 1-shot gun, giving that to Imaginality would be really bad! Disastrous even! Catastrophic!
So they ran up Imaginality instead,”

Seriously? You’re suggesting this mythical scum team was so sure that Staeg had 1-shot Vig that we didn’t want to lim him and give it to imaginality

before we wagoned imaginality

?

(Also, imaginality got to 5 with LLD saying she would hammer. By your logic, why wouldn’t Ythan get on board?)

[mith]

Yes, I was totally serious when I said I'm discrediting everything you say because I think you're scum.

I mean ur mafia so ur job is to discredit what I say and I’m the person who’s actually trying to look and break down teams so….

As far as "discrediting" what you say, I mean ur mafia so of course I'm going to discredit what you say.

I'm discrediting you because

you are wrong

. Repeatedly, demonstrably wrong. When it is pointed out that you are wrong, you deflect or say it's pointless to talk to me, in some cases

continuing to make the same wrong statements

(like the thing about the only living players on the Staeg wagon being you and jjh while simultaneously arguing that Bella doesn't unvote from the Staeg wagon). I

think

that's coming from you being scum, I'm self-aware enough to know that I might be wrong about that.

we both have agreed that talking is just pointless

At no point have I believed, said, suggested, or implied in any way that I think it is pointless to talk to you. That's all coming from you.

[mith]

I feel like my theories make a lot of sense.

I feel like you are not playing Mafia but rather "Keep Talking and Nobody Has a Chance to Keep Up with All My Bad Takes".

Anyway, I'm going to bed, I feel like crap and I'm not the 20-year-old I used to be who could stay up all night playing (much slower paced) games. Oh to be young and healthy again.

[mith]

mith literally just posted that he thought that I wasn't playing mafia

(Hopefully it’s obvious to everyone (except possibly Ali?) that saying she’s playing “Keep Talking and Nobody Has a Chance to Keep Up with All My Bad Takes” was a sarcastic joke.)

I really don’t care for the AtE of 4125 (especially after the comments she has made about Andante as a player), but at least she recognized it was unfair in 4133.

For my part, I find Ali’s posting exhausting and it would be easier for me, especially the way I’m feeling right now, to just ignore it. But that’s not how I play; I figure out the game best by interacting directly, by finding inconsistencies of thought and digging in on them to try to determine if they are genuinely held inconsistencies or inconsistencies as a result of making up BS. On top of that, I am acutely aware that if the scum manage to mislim me specifically it’s game over.

So, yeah, obviously I am going to point out where Ali is saying things that are simply untrue, are vague and don’t logically lead to the conclusion she is pushing, etc. And I’m going to continue trying to read that slot, even if it’s ultimately futile applying my usual methods in this case. (I’m imagining trying to do the sort of PBPA I used to do on 1200+ posts, and I think I died a little inside.)

Anyway, to summarize where I am with Ali right now:

I think she is pushing weak reasoning to “rule out” various team options in order to “PoE” it down to Ythan/mith/Datisi, and not really engaging on that weak reasoning when it is pointed out, instead relying on volume and AtE. She could be doing this as town, and has just been hard tunneled on me most of the game (again, with the exception of ending up on both mislim wagons with me, which makes little sense if she’s as distrustful of me as she has claimed — the switch to imaginality D2 comes across as a slightly more nuanced version of Andante’s “mith posted lots of words” in this context). Or she could be scum thinking I almost certainly shoot her tonight if jjh flips red (is this where the whole “scum didn’t want to lim Staeg because they thought he was the 1-shot vig” thing is coming from? projection?), whereas a mislim on me wins her the game (possibly a mislim on someone else does as well, if jjh actually drafted JK, but I think it's more likely that slot claims tracker if they did and the "why would they claim VT drafting BP as scum??" is just WIFOM).

I think the latter (Ali scum) is more likely, maybe 80-20 right now, assuming a jjh red flip. (I do think she's most likely town if jjh is town; maybe this has all been an act, but I don't think she is nearly so passionate about her solve if she's scum and jjh is town.)

I would find it incredibly frustrating and stupid if we lose this game because somehow I do end up being the mislim. But I don't think this happens unless LLD/Ythan are scum, and if that's were the case this day would already have played out differently and I'd already be dead.

Norwee says that if mith didn't crumb the n3 gun that it's suspect

?

I didn’t crumb; I don’t typically crumb roles. Either they’re too obvious and give scum information, or they’re too vague, useless, and fakeable. (The last time I remember crumbing was in a Good Omens theme game in which I was an SK fake claiming Vig; and that’s like… 2004? Maybe I crumbed in some other game after that, but that’s the memorable one.)

If I

did

typically crumb roles, I would do so as either alignment (if anything, I would care more about doing so in this game as scum, since the vast majority of the time I would end up claiming from the slot I drafted).

------

Probably won't be posting a whole lot today after this. I still feel like crap, and I spent way too much energy yesterday trying to keep up with Ali; I need to take care of myself (aka lots of TotK and maybe a nap while the kids are at MIL's).

[mith]

Apologies for not making it more clear.

[mith]

I haven’t been thinking a whole lot about the game (instead, I have been completely oblivious in TotK and solving puzzles in the most convoluted way possible), but kuribo whiteboarded Gimli’s D1 for associatives and I’ll try to summarize below.

But first, this caught my eye looking at the ISO, after Andante’s reason for hammering D2:

I think this is a lot over one vote though

If it were just over one vote, I wouldn't have given a breakdown of four votes in eight posts...

But ok, what about this interaction seems like "a lot" to you?

lots of words

I dont think you'll like interacting much with me rn but I appreciate the effort. speaking of me voting mara first, what do you think of the fact that marashu was definitely around to see me voting him in real time but chose to ignore it?

Also this:

as if scum is like super worried about getting the d1 flip instead of building good associatives and playing the long run

A rough summary of kuribo’s thoughts on Gimli ISO:

Shaded Mara, Cephrir, Staeg
Town on imaginality and Rad
Uncertain on Ali, no read on LLD or Mena
Doesn’t mention Bella much, but a town read
Nothing substantial for Ythan
Went from Datisi town to scum (some miscommunication here but he clarified, 970 has Datisi as “town?”, not much about Datisi until 2042 where he is “scum if Ceph is town”. Agree this is a weird progression. While trying to figure out what glue kuribo was sniffing I noticed 648/715 talk about Datisi a lot, in sort of a “I disagree but don’t suspect Datisi” way)

kuribo thinks Datisi interaction could be distancing, Bella and Ali possibly not wanting to give a firm read on a buddy (LLD also here for D1 alone, obviously if it’s Ythan/jjh/LLD playing this D3 LLD has been taking too many of the good drugs). All of the most significant pushes from Gimli have flipped town except for Datisi, but no vote there.

And then some stuff about his whiteboard that I need to actually zoom in and look at when my brain is less fuzzy.

So kuribo is on board with the shoot Datisi plan at least. I’m not going to give a 100% certain target for potential JK reasons, but it did occur to me earlier that I should probably rule out at least one target so that in the event of a jjh red flip Ythan has someone to investigate that isn’t getting shot (so that if scum decide to leave Ythan alive to push an unlikely Ythan/jjh gambit theory they would be risking Ythan being able to solve the game with time to spare; or if it *is* the Ythan/jjh gambit there’s less wiggle room for Ythan).

We both think the likeliest group is jjh/Datisi/Ali at this point.

[mith]

There are zero worlds where your target being hidden does town ANY good.

I started to explain it again and realized that a. it assumes I’m confirmed town, which you don’t know; and b. it was fever logic anyway.

The idea being that if scum do have a JK they aren’t required to target me with it (if they know I’m targeting town, they could let the shot through). But you’re right, I don’t think there is a world where us knowing they have a JK is mire damaging to them than us ruling out another potential scum.

I’ll announce my target (Datisi if nothing changes, but I’ll confirm just before we vote).

[mith]

Is there an M&M conveying overwhelming jealousy that I can post at Mena while I hack up a lung over here?

[previewedit]Ali is faster than me on the hammer thing.

[mith]

On the back end of the game (the present), I am thinking that an Ythan / LLD / Mith scumteam would make a lot of sense in terms of gamestate. That would be a scumteam that managed to draft 2 vigs and the cop, which is a team that had a gameplan from the very start- line up 2 mislims, fake a guilty, end the game. Makes sense why LLD has been pushing the narrative that cop=town pick. Scum!Ythan has little reason to draft bulletproof when her buddies are draftings vigs, and gets to be verifiably ascetic.

Let’s say you’re town. Let’s say you’re the lim. I’m town. I’m the last chance to save the game. Who do I shoot? Who are the scum?

[mith]

We're about 4 days from deadline at this point. In the next day or so I would like to hear from everyone regarding:

1. Who is the lim today? (Alisae, I would like you to answer this independent of your "doublevoter" status with LLD)
2. Who do I shoot tonight? (Contingent on the various flip possibilities)

[mith]

Note to self that I have something to say about the most recent post, but I want everyone else to give their lim and shot answers first.

[mith]

Ali, I'd still like to hear who you think the lim should be, and who you would have me shoot.

I get that you are still discussing with LLD, and if you want to change your answer later that's fine. I want to know where you are right now.

[mith]

(What is WIM? I feel like I should know this but it's not coming to me.)

[mith]

Ah, thanks

[mith]

And who do you suggest I shoot, depending on the outcome of the flip?

[mith]

if she town she clears you (which would be really helpful right now).
mith has to shoot jjh, which clears him if he's town
we know to immediately get datisi the next day

And who do you suggest I shoot, depending on the outcome of the flip?

you have to shoot ythan if jjh is town
you should shoot datisi if jjh is mafia

Let's say an Ythan lim does happen, and Ythan is scum. Who do I shoot in that case?

[mith]

Whose idea was the claim swap?

[mith]

You can look at me and see I'm aesthetic

that is correct, he hooded me n1 and i went for RB (he first said he didn't wanna claim that lmfao)

Why RB?

[mith]

it was actually ausuka that first had that idea on n2 - because it's around that time that both mena and i were talking about (1) we agree that a bulletproof rather than cop would be a scumclaim, (2) that ythan's slot was likely the cop/bp bracket

Also, can you/Mena confirm whether this response was accurate? Your team suggested the Ythan target?

[mith]

Two more questions, @Datisi:

If jjh is scum, how does that affect your read of Mena? If Ythan is scum, how does that affect your read of Mena?

Mith asked me ages ago about being shit at mech. Actually, @mith, you didn't really follow up on this?

I had forgotten I even asked this (well, I asked whether you rely on mech). Don't have any follow-up, your response was reasonable.

i feel like the sole bastion of sanity in a sea of lunacy

------

I have a hard time seeing a world where Alisae is town at this point; the vote for me seals that. I'm having an even harder time seeing a world where jjh is town and hasn't already voted for Ythan.

@Mena and Ythan, I would still like your thoughts on who I shoot tonight. Right now, I am shooting Alisae if jjh flips scum.

VOTE: jjh927

[mith]

[previewedit]
I was talking about jjh's lack of vote. (More generally, about jjh's lack of

push toward a player who has to be scum

if jjh is town.)

And this is going to be less relevant now because Ythan unvoted. But anyway, I'll finish what I was writing:
[/previewedit]

That just feels completely disingenuous to me

There's actual ways you could be sorting between me and Ythan but instead you're like "Ythan voted jjh 2 hours ago and jjh hasn't voted her yet"

Your lack of vote is obviously not the only reason I think you are scum. I've spent a good chunk of the day discussing why I think you are the more likely scum.

[previewedit]moved the bit about jjh's lack of Ythan push to the start[/previewedit]

My preferred lim is Ythan

If it's on what we'd consolidate onto, then in addition to Ythan, right now I'd happily go for LLD and more hesitantly go for mith or menalque.
However, as Ythan has a result on LLD convention dictates that LLD should not be the lim. Convenient.

Town being the target of a fake guilty claim are not thinking this much about consolidating on someone other than the player they know is scum. (Town also doesn't say they would happily go for LLD while recognizing that LLD should not be the lim.)

Scum jjh, on the other hand, has clear incentive to keep options open; "consolidating" on me, specifically, wins scum the game. Together with Ali's vote, this is confirming the vibe I've had much of the day since the claims: scum are hoping to leave open the possibility of mislimming me to win the game immediately. I look at jjh's ISO and I see a whole lot of "well mith is probably scum" and not a whole lot of "Ythan is confirmed scum and should be the lim".

[mith]

No lim should never happen. From my PoV, all it would accomplish is cost us a town-controlled kill. (And if any town thinks I am scum, it would be a town loss if I am telling the truth about my role.)

She says if there's a no lim mith has to shoot jjh. I get shot, lld is conf and directs lim, does datisi. Lld dies leaving five.

This would be jjh, Ythan, Datisi, LLD dead, leaving four. Me shooting N3 after a no lim results in MELO if I'm right.

[mith]

(There are actually some interesting N3 dynamics in play there that I'm not going to get into because doing so only helps scum in the event that someone we do end up with no lim. But I would switch to Ythan if we are in a 4:4 deadlock and no one else is budging; no lim is the wrong play.)

[mith]

@mod, vla, Izzy's been sent to hospital

<3

I think that fairly evidently if jjh flips green mith should be shooting ythan? unless I'm missing something drastic?

What does Jingle think about this?

[mith]

@mod any chance of a deadline extension given the Andante replacement and multiple V/LAs for others?

[mith]

Jingle says that if jjh greens then scum either have an ascetic or a jk and if it’s JK then it’s probably dats who JK’d me last night to stop the ythan hood and we just lose. If there is no jk they (koba has concurred) think the best option would be shooting ythan — jingle says he sees the argument for shooting us if you think that we fake confirmed ythan as ascetic there, but in that case if dats wasn’t outing the claimswap it makes very little sense for me to do so as the fire would’ve been on him there and not me

Fair enough.

Mechanically, there is actually no reason for me to ever shoot Ythan tonight on a jjh green. Obviously, if there is a JK we just lose. If there isn't, I am always the nightkill (because either I shoot wrong and we lose, or I shoot right and I'm confirmed town). As a result, if I shoot Ythan

successfully

, we end up in a 2:3 endgame (2/15 random EV, 2/5 * 1/3); if I choose to shoot for an Ythan buddy, I have the same 2 scum out of 5 players decision to make, and then Ythan is just autolim tomorrow, so the again 2/15 random EV. The benefit to me taking the shot is 1. I don't have to worry about the possibility that Ythan is BP (other than in trying to figure out who the buddies are) and 2. that it's completely town controlled, vs. going to D4 2:3 with no confirmed innocent where one town player chooses wrong and it's game over.

I haven't decided yet who I

am

going to shoot in that case. I don't think we are in that scenario, so I will have to do a major reevaluation with my team if we are. But the feedback is good, whether you are town thinking this through or scum trying to mislead me and get me to shoot wrong.

It's pretty obvious to me that jjh is scum with Alisae. Alisae is still pushing a mislim on me which just wins them the game (this suggests to me that they

don't

have a JK), despite it being strictly better mechanically to push for an Ythan lim if she were town and genuinely has us joined at the hip as scumbuddies (if she's town and just wrong, being wrong and mislimming me loses the game, being wrong and mislimming Ythan gives me a chance to save the game).

[mith]

kuribo wants me to mention that he has been incessantly screaming about Ali in our team chat. If he were playing instead of me this game would probably be at 200 pages by now.

Ythan, I will be shooting Ali if there is no lim. In the unlikely event of her being town, she would prefer limming jjh over no lim (from a town Ali PoV, either she's right about me being a scum vig and no lim is a loss anyway, or she's wrong and obviously limming is better than not to give us an extra town-controlled kill.)

[mith]

In the event of a no lim and me shooting Ali, scum can only kill one of us. Either they shoot me and you have a result on Datisi, or they shoot you and both LLD and I are confirmed (in which case one of us will be alive after the jjh lim). In the former case, we have an out if we're wrong about Datisi, and in the latter there is no wrangling to be done - confirmed town makes a decision on the lim.

[mith]

Idunno what to tell u 2, if I’m a wolf w/ jjh I always get staeg eliminated

How many times has Ali claimed this at this point? Is anyone actually buying it? “I tried my darndest to lim town and failed, so I must not be scum”.

Sorry, how would you be confirmed in that sitch?

In a no lim, if I shoot and the game isn’t over I’m confirmed. If I were scum, I would just shoot town. (If there’s a JK and I’m blocked that’s different - from not-me perspective there could be a JK or I could be lying about having vig or both. Actually,

this

is the scenario where I should be coy about who I’m targeting and whether I’m shooting at all, because if I shoot and am wrong that’s game over, so they may not JK me if they are sure I shoot town. I guess scum can worry about whether my awareness of this means I’m going to do something different, but the equilibrium point is probably way in favor of shooting.)

[mith]

Pew pew

I think the lim today is almost certainly Datisi but no need to rush. Mena, did you neighborize?

(Can I just say how relieved I was that jjh flipped scum and I didn’t have to figure out who to shoot in a jjh town world? The RL stress this week got turned up to 11, I was in no condition to process that.)

[mith]

Yeah, let me know if you want me to address anything in particular. I think there quite a few reasons I wouldn’t have played D3 in particular that way as scum with Ali and jjh, but ultimately there’s always going to be a bit of WIFOM if I’m talking about my own potential scum play. ~shrug~

I’m a little annoyed that Mena did not neighborize LLD, having access to the neighborhood would make that side of things much easier to process. Mena, did you discuss your target at all with Datisi?

Datisi, D2: Explain the thought process for voting Ythan and then moving back to imaginality.

[mith]

I will at some point. I am a bundle of RL stress at the moment and haven't felt up to doing much re-reading yet.

[mith]

Some random things on skimming Bella's ISO...

Bella: You mentioned a Rad town-tell a couple times D1, what was that about? Anything to say about the Staeg unvote that hasn't already been said?

2709 looks... not great. There is so much of Alisae's D3 in the Staeg stuff. Maybe that was a way of trying to pull town Bella away from jjh, I guess? I dunno, I could see this as coming from scum Bella having talked through all this with Ali before the NK decision. And of course the Ythan stuff feels cop-hunty in retrospect.

(TBF I also don't care for the Ali/Datisi interaction right after this, knowing Ali was scum.)

Mena: Can you confirm what Datisi is saying re: switching back to imaginality? (I hate neighborhoods so much right now.)

[mith]

It's tone. They are, with love, way more condescending as town. They did it to alisae. They did it to me in lost, and in our newbie. The lost one was hilarious, it was basically 'bella can't be scum because obviously this is a suboptimal scum approach, scum should be doing x y z!!!' I was scum!

The steag unvote I think has to be looked at in the context of the wider wagons: day one town spent mostly flailing around, I think there were like three votes in datisi at some point and that's the closest we got to wagoning scum (in my pov). None of the wagons felt right - because we kept wagoning town, mostly as town! I wish I'd stick to my guns a bit more day two around imaginality. Alisea voting rad was the biggest scum tell for me.

I guess what's bugging me here is not just the Staeg unvote but that you seem to be drifting toward possibly joining the Rad wagon. That on its own ~shrug~ LLD and I both thought Rad was scum, and Rad himself claimed to be deliberately playing scummy. It's just that I'm having trouble seeing how you go from town-tell to that stance.

Not sure how much more rereading I'm going to be able to do today; we're having AC issues and it got way too hot up here yesterday, not sure how much I'll even be able to work up here never mind wading through all these posts. Have a tech coming this afternoon at least.

[mith]

If we ever have a scratch-and-sniff feature on the site, guava will be the mafTiger scent.

[mith]

I still need to find time to read some more. At least I’m finally starting to feel better!

[mith]

Finally had a little time! Huzzah!

(Not sure what to make of Bella's comment, but will wait on a response to Mena before deciding if it's telling anything about alignment.)

D1 we've already looked at the Datisi/Gimli interactions, the Staeg wagon is kinda useless to me at this point (*maybe* all three scum were on it at E-1, or maybe just two scum were on it and Datisi or Mena couldn't hammer without looking sus to the other? Also I'm tired of thinking about it because Ali yesterday). D3 we have the really obvious (Datisi leaning Ythan, 4314, Bella and Mena voting jjh) and the whole claim swap thing (reflects slightly worse on Mena, if Jingle suggested it? all it accomplished as far as I'm concerned is confusing any reads related to their claims).

Looking at Datisi/Gimli day 2. Gimli comes out voting me with a PoE of five players and "gth" scumteam of me, Mara, Datisi. This is after 2042 (Datisi scum if Cephrir town), and Cephrir flipping town N1. Gimli's read on me goes from "town?" to "idk" (2042). Why is Gimli not pushing Datisi here?

Gimli and Datisi have a back-and-forth early in D2, in part about Gimli's read on Datisi, but also the progression from 2659's "this is a lie." (re: Gimli suspecting "POE" filled with townies - I'm not sure why Gimli is using "POE" to mean "main wagons") to "k" in 2666 is ?

I don't think Gimli ever really explains the Datisi scumread beyond that Ceph scumread Datisi and Ceph flipped town.

Meanwhile, Alisae has started the day voting Gimli (because Bella wanted it?), asks Datisi about voting Gimli (2695), 2696... I could see this coming from scum trying to have a distancing conversation with a buddy and then no one biting on that. Alisae explicitly refuses to comment on it (2698/2699).

(Reading the next few posts reminds me: 2703 felt like a possibly deliberate error to fish for who took N3 Vig, and I avoided commenting at the time because I wasn't about to let scum fish me, and then I forgot about it completely. Oops.)

2717/2718 does not read like buddy interaction (Alisae/Bella); it reads like Ali trying to sell the distancing, "look how willing I am to lim this slot", reminding a townie that they wanted to lim them D1.

Ali votes me along with honorary fourth scum imaginality, claims that the Gimli vote was to see who would go along and that actually Gimli is not scum. This is part of a section starting from 2719 which is completely dominated by Datisi and Alisae. Nothing about this conversation screams "these two can't be buddies".

I'm having a hard time buying Datisi's reasoning for voting Ythan:

i don't think there's much to explain. i thought imaginality was scummy and wanted him dead. but i also thought that ythan was playing sort of like her scumgame that i've seen a bit ago, that you are town (mena and i agreed on this in hood) and that the fact that you were one of the main wagons, if not the main wagon at the time, was Bad

I was the lead wagon just before this (at 3), with imaginality at 2 (Datisi and me). Then Ali switches

away from me

to Ythan in 2830. So the count is 2 for me, 2 for imaginality, 2 for Ythan, 6 to lim. Like... I'm not in any real danger here? I don't believe that me being a "main wagon" warranted a capital-B "Bad" and switch away from the player he "absolutely" wants to kill (imaginality) who is now also tied leading wagon?

and i also knew mena would also be willing to vote ythan with me, i think we'd talked about that in the hood as well.

Without seeing what this looked like in the neighborhood, this gets a big fat meh. What was Mena saying about imaginality at this point?

as for swapping back to imag - that vote didn't make sense to me rn looking at the main thread, but checking the hood, me and mena were discussing voting ythan vs voting imag, and we eventually settled to imag being more likely scum, which is why both of us swapped the vote there in a relatively short amount of time

I would really like more detail on what this looked like in the neighborhood. What it looks like to me is:

One of you saw the opportunity to get Ythan to E-2, following immediately from scumbuddy switching (Alisae 2830, Datisi 2832, Mena 2839, within ~8 hours) and probably encouraged by said scumbuddy (wanting to use numbers). One more player votes here Gimli can hammer.

Then one of you gets cold feet (through some combination of me scolding everyone, imaginality looking scummy, and/or Ythan showing up a little bit) and you both switch back to imaginality (Mena 2922, Datisi 2927)

along with Alisae joining

(2939). (I think Ali here just sees an opportunity to pin another mislim on me saying words so that I go down D3, but if the whole "using numbers" thing is legit this looks like that - all three scum were definitely on the imaginality wagon in the end, whether they were also all on the Staeg wagon or no.)

This just feels like Datisi (and Alisae) seeing an opportunity to run up the top draft slot right after shooting the second draft slot and now

knowing what role slot Ythan drafted from since Gimli was third

. If they force a claim and it's BP, they probably have the juice to lim it based on LLD's comments, and with a cop claim they at least have some chance to know if Ythan is lying as town-BP (if the claimed investigation is wrong).

Maybe

it's Mena instead manipulating Datisi via the neighborhood, but the timing of the votes points the other way.

This post feels like it's probably a jumbled mess of thoughts, but I am out of time for rereading it to make sure it makes sense so.

[mith]

1. Shooting Ali as the third scum is mechanically possible, but it doesn’t account for D3. Remember, I was planning to shoot Datisi until Ali voted for me instead of jjh. Ali trying to get a mislim to immediately win makes sense of her play; Ali breaking her commitment to vote one scum buddy in order to vote for a different scum buddy and force that buddy to shoot her instead of town after the first is limmed does not.
2. I don’t think I was anywhere close to a guaranteed lim if I had shot town? (As town, I was far more concerned about being blocked, missing out on an extra town-controlled kill, and not being able to prove my role than I was about shooting wrong.) Obviously, I would have played D3 a bit differently as scum intending to shoot town, see 1.

“I don’t think it’s true but I thought it was mechanically possible?” is a bit of a step back from “A lylo with mith and mena would be really tough for me.”; are you that confident Mena is town?

[mith]

Yeah, I'm struggling to come up with a reason Bella says that

today

as scum. (Beyond just "scum could say anything")

[mith]

Gimli and Datisi have a back-and-forth early in D2, in part about Gimli's read on Datisi, but also the progression from 2659's "this is a lie." (re: Gimli suspecting "POE" filled with townies - I'm not sure why Gimli is using "POE" to mean "main wagons") to "k" in 2666 is ?

what is ? about it? i called him out for saying something untrue, he backpedaled and claimed he actually meant something somewhat similar but also completely different. "k" is a snarky response from me there, because i both see that it's... not true, but also that there's no point in arguing about it further because he's just gonna repeat "that's what i meant" and it wouldn't get us anywhere. and it wasn't *impossible* for me to see that coming from town so no value in continuing that convo.

k

(What? I

had

to.)

I dunno. This does not feel like the reaction town has to catching someone in a lie. 2696/2748/2752 (all of these in discussion with Alisae) are... lukewarm? Like, you're saying "actually, I think Gimli

is

scum" and then there's no follow up, just switching to Ythan and back to imaginality? Until Andante comes in and hammers of course, then D3 a bit more argument about Andante's alignment (

with Alisae again

). 3188, 3205, 3216... I guess it's bugging me a lot that most of what you said about that slot (at least D2 and start of D3) was in discussion with the other confirmed scum. Sort of taking opposite sides on Gimli/Andante so you have cover if things turn that direction but not actually pushing on that slot in case Alisae can push through a mislim?

What was Mena saying about imaginality at this point?

that he's most likely scum, and throwing out some solve ideas based on imag being scum

i could paraphrase the hood more closely around this time in the thread if it's needed, but like.

Please do. (I do not understand why this hasn't happened already, from either of you? There is a bunch of info that confirmed town LLD and not-strictly-confirmed-but-hopefully-obvtown mith cannot see! Even if both of you are town and 100% certain that the other is town, there is no reason to be holding back on what happened in the neighborhood.)

mena was the one to be thinking ythan is maybe town who's just not playing and was more sure on imag, and i was fine with following him there as well.

i can understand that looking like that from your pov, but i just don't do that as scum? if i'm scum and i already know ythan is a cop/bp, either shoot her on n2 and get rid of the cop, or miss a kill, run her up again on d3 while festering the "bp is a scumclaim" paranoia, misyeet. if i did vote her on d2, why unvote? it's not like there was any scum in danger.

I mean, you

just

answered that: "mena was the one thinking ythan is maybe town... i was fine with following him there as well" It's pretty clear that

if

you are scum you are relying on that neighborhood and friendship to help you survive. (And likewise if Mena is scum)

As for N2, the "I already know ythan is a cop/bp" thing is mostly meaningless at this point? Whoever of you is the scum knew that on D2. Obviously scum had

some

reason to leave Ythan alive (I have to assume Alisae thought I could be the mislim by the time massclaim was done, and more generally the argument of "draft pick 1 is still alive, must be scum"... which you made several times during D3?). So, make the case: why does Bella as scum leave Ythan alive when you wouldn't? Why does Mena as scum leave Ythan alive when you wouldn't?

[mith]

Agree that Datisi is the lim today, obviously. I'll probably go ahead and vote sometime tomorrow; do want to give Datisi a little more time to post some thoughts (specifically on Mena and the neighborhood) in the event that he's town.

[mith]

VOTE: Datisi

[mith]

Thanks for modding I had fun (as much as I might complain about the number of posts )

[mith]

So, funny thing, I actually wanted to replace Gimli, but the team had already asked Andante. When Andante replaced out I was asked if I was still interested and I foolishly said yes.

Yeah, the Andante hammer (and posts around it) was brutal for the scum team. Hard to say what would have gone differently if you had replaced in instead; I'd think imaginality is the lim regardless, but whether Ythan still investigates your slot... Ythan will have to tell us if that investigation was driven by the hammer or earlier stuff.

Appreciate you stepping in though! You made a doomed situation not

quite

so clear cut.

Will be curious to see some of the discussions in the scum PT. kuribo and I thought Ali would've been better served by sticking to the initial jjh vote and not trying to win on the spot D3 (that said, there's a good chance I shoot Ali anyway, so). Was not killing Ythan more to do with not being sure about whether she might take BP, or with thinking you could drive a mislim? (Was

definitely

shooting Ali on an Ythan mislim; as mentioned at some point D3, I should always try to shoot someone other than confirmed scum jjh there because it's the same pool as the lim would be and I know I'm town. The Datisi/Mena/Bella final three would have been rough though.)