TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

Alisae · Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:11 pm

VOTE: gimli

Alisae · Post Post #12 (isolation #1) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:16 pm

In post 9, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 8, Alisae wrote: VOTE: gimli
Why are you voting someone in the top 4 draft slots right now?

his number stands out to me.
Wouldn't wolves want to be high up in the draft?

Alisae · Post Post #14 (isolation #2) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:17 pm

why do you think wolves picked 6?

Alisae · Post Post #17 (isolation #3) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:17 pm

In post 15, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 12, Alisae wrote:
In post 9, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 8, Alisae wrote: VOTE: gimli
Why are you voting someone in the top 4 draft slots right now?
his number stands out to me.
Wouldn't wolves want to be high up in the draft?
You know who else wants to be high up in the draft?

Take a wild guess. Go on, take a wild guess what other faction of players would also love to be high up in the draft.

everyone

Alisae · Post Post #20 (isolation #4) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:19 pm

In post 16, Ythan wrote: Hello friends!

Alisae · Post Post #22 (isolation #5) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:20 pm

In post 18, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 14, Alisae wrote: why do you think wolves picked 6?
wolves plural? I don't, or at least, if they did it's a gambit and I'm happy to call the bluff killing there day 1 and leaving it on the table

Wolf singular? Because in this game where 3 numbers overlap in pick, it's pretty likely there is at least one scum in the grouping.

so like, what is this based on?

Alisae · Post Post #26 (isolation #6) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:22 pm

wait no ythan it was this one

this is basically k-on right?????

Alisae · Post Post #27 (isolation #7) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:22 pm

In post 24, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 22, Alisae wrote:
In post 18, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 14, Alisae wrote: why do you think wolves picked 6?
wolves plural? I don't, or at least, if they did it's a gambit and I'm happy to call the bluff killing there day 1 and leaving it on the table

Wolf singular? Because in this game where 3 numbers overlap in pick, it's pretty likely there is at least one scum in the grouping.
so like, what is this based on?
History of this game, statistics, number picking logic...

it's not 100% but nothing is, but it's significantly increased.

I don't get it

Alisae · Post Post #29 (isolation #8) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:24 pm

it sounds arbitrary but I mean it's RVS we don't really have much to go off of so I don't care too much tbh.

Alisae · Post Post #35 (isolation #9) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:27 pm

So why would wolves want to opt for 6?

Alisae · Post Post #37 (isolation #10) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:29 pm

tbh I feel like all of the players who picked 6 are super readable.

Alisae · Post Post #41 (isolation #11) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:31 pm

ok ya I'm just going to wait for them to post

Alisae · Post Post #44 (isolation #12) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:32 pm

I caught Marashu before and Imaginality I think I can get a good read on. Last time I played with him I pushed him as low hanging fruit and railroaded his elim extremely quickly.

Alisae · Post Post #51 (isolation #13) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:35 pm

LLD I'm an easy read.
I don't think my vote on imaginality does what you think it does but sure
VOTE: imaginality

Alisae · Post Post #64 (isolation #14) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:40 pm

In post 54, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 51, Alisae wrote: LLD I'm an easy read.
I don't think my vote on imaginality does what you think it does but sure
VOTE: imaginality
I have a history with you and a recent scum game that proves you're not, but okay Ali.

there are things about my towngame I just can't fake if you know what to look for.
I think this is something you believe but I think you make reading me harder than it actually is. I feel like reading me is pretty simple, and that doesn't change because I can play wolf.

Idunno do you wanna look at meta? I feel like in my own play I'm easy to read but that's probably because I know myself well and what I can/cannot fake.

Alisae · Post Post #68 (isolation #15) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:43 pm

Raise of hands who went through all of the PyP games and looked at what people historically picked.

Alisae · Post Post #75 (isolation #16) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:45 pm

I think chilling is +town

Alisae · Post Post #76 (isolation #17) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:46 pm

but these past few pages generated some content which is like good

Alisae · Post Post #83 (isolation #18) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:50 pm

In post 79, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 75, Alisae wrote: I think chilling is +town
Maybe it is, I'm sort of incandescently angry that I literally tried to make this player engage with the actual argument like 4 fuckign times and they chose to tilt me and only NOW are they like "woah let's calm down"

when it looks good for them to say it and makes me look like a fucking psychopath for being angry when I have GOODFUCKING REASON dfhskal FUCK dude

I feel like you think everyone is just out to get you.

Alisae · Post Post #84 (isolation #19) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:50 pm

In post 82, Ythan wrote: And you're totally engaging with my argument, uhuh

I think what you're doing w/ your current posting is just trying to provoke LLD

Alisae · Post Post #86 (isolation #20) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:51 pm

It's a good interaction but it's late and I don't think people should be waking up to 8+ pages of you two just flinging shit at each other. That's just +scum I believe

Alisae · Post Post #96 (isolation #21) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:07 pm

fwiw i'm probably giving lld the day pass.
developed gamestates are the best gamestates to try to read LLD in

Alisae · Post Post #97 (isolation #22) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:07 pm

In post 95, Ythan wrote: We think you're trying to bait me into a flame war

didn't you start it?

Alisae · Post Post #103 (isolation #23) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:09 pm

I think LLD's range is infinite.
She probably starts the game this way as both alignments.

I feel Ythan reacts how she did as both alignments as well fwiw, their alignment will probably be clearer the longer day goes on

Alisae · Post Post #110 (isolation #24) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:13 pm

In post 107, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 103, Alisae wrote: I think LLD's range is infinite.
She probably starts the game this way as both alignments.

I feel Ythan reacts how she did as both alignments as well fwiw, their alignment will probably be clearer the longer day goes on
no they're fucking town Alisae how fucking obvious do you need it made

I want to agree

Alisae · Post Post #117 (isolation #25) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:17 pm

In post 102, Ythan wrote:
In post 97, Alisae wrote:
In post 95, Ythan wrote: We think you're trying to bait me into a flame war
didn't you start it?
No. If I'm mistaken please explain.

I feel like you basically attacked LLD for not explaining how she got to the conclusion that a wolf is in the 6s and I felt the way you did so was aimed at trying to provoke them. I felt like 49 was probably not necessary and adds just more fuel to the fire? I felt like instead of trying to see their point of view you just aimed at pushing her like they were the enemy.

You could come out with a push like this as both alignments but I think you're town. I too thought that if LLD didn't make sense she was likely a wolf in the past as well and I pushed town!LLD for the logic that she didn't make sense in the past as well but it's not like it's impossible for it to come from a wolf. I just think it's probably coming from a villager right now but I feel like if you're a villager it'll be a lot more obvious as the day goes on

Alisae · Post Post #126 (isolation #26) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:23 pm

In post 101, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 96, Alisae wrote: fwiw i'm probably giving lld the day pass.
developed gamestates are the best gamestates to try to read LLD in
you make me so fucking nervous lmfao

I voted with you d1 in cakez game and would have given you a pass there too. I think my mafia experience is just a lot less stressful when I decide to save the harder players to read for later once a game has developed me. I don't need to get a read a player right away (tho it should be possible to get one in theory). Do you disagree?

Alisae · Post Post #137 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:27 pm

In post 120, Ythan wrote:
In post 117, Alisae wrote:
In post 102, Ythan wrote:
In post 97, Alisae wrote:
In post 95, Ythan wrote: We think you're trying to bait me into a flame war
didn't you start it?
No. If I'm mistaken please explain.
I feel like you basically attacked LLD for not explaining how she got to the conclusion that a wolf is in the 6s and I felt the way you did so was aimed at trying to provoke them. I felt like 49 was probably not necessary and adds just more fuel to the fire? I felt like instead of trying to see their point of view you just aimed at pushing her like they were the enemy.

You could come out with a push like this as both alignments but I think you're town. I too thought that if LLD didn't make sense she was likely a wolf in the past as well and I pushed town!LLD for the logic that she didn't make sense in the past as well but it's not like it's impossible for it to come from a wolf. I just think it's probably coming from a villager right now but I feel like if you're a villager it'll be a lot more obvious as the day goes on
Voting someone is not attempting to provoke them. Obviously. Obviously?

49 was a sincere brag.

I think from your posting now, you probably didn't intend on it, but that is how it was received. I think 49 can be seen as a bit arrogant in the moment?

Alisae · Post Post #138 (isolation #28) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:27 pm

you two go so quickly I feel like I'm struggling to keep up lol

Alisae · Post Post #140 (isolation #29) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:28 pm

idunno Ythan I thought the way you were interacting with LLD it seemed like you were egging her on which is why I thought that you were kind of provoking her.

Alisae · Post Post #142 (isolation #30) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:30 pm

In post 136, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 126, Alisae wrote:
In post 101, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 96, Alisae wrote: fwiw i'm probably giving lld the day pass.
developed gamestates are the best gamestates to try to read LLD in
you make me so fucking nervous lmfao
I voted with you d1 in cakez game and would have given you a pass there too. I think my mafia experience is just a lot less stressful when I decide to save the harder players to read for later once a game has developed me. I don't need to get a read a player right away (tho it should be possible to get one in theory). Do you disagree?
no, i don't disagree, it's why i voted imaginality over you on entrance. i think i get more out of pushing them than pushing you, getting in a fight with you and then deciding your scum because you frustrate the ever loving fuck out of em and i can't read you and killing you

i don't even think i'm right more than i'm wrong doing that with you so i picked somenie else in the 6s

Waiting to form me a read on me is a good call. I'm really good at making my alignment obvious if you know what to look for!

Alisae · Post Post #147 (isolation #31) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:31 pm

In post 132, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 127, Rad wrote: Lld if you think ythan is town and you're town, let's calm down and move on
right but calming down requires me to

i actually don't know what it requires me to do. i don't know how to calm down right now.

Breathe.

Alisae · Post Post #151 (isolation #32) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:33 pm

you're a good girl lld ur fine

Alisae · Post Post #153 (isolation #33) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:34 pm

I would come back to the thread tomorrow. There should be something new by the time you wake up, no?
I imagine I'm going to be up for like 5 more hours, go to bed, and wake up to find that everyone else has posted lol

Alisae · Post Post #154 (isolation #34) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:35 pm

In post 152, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 151, Alisae wrote: you're a good girl lld ur fine
i'm very clearly not fine lol

hug

Alisae · Post Post #157 (isolation #35) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:37 pm

In post 155, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: did you know it's 2 weeks until my surgery and i'm having constant nightmares revolving between:

1) something going wrong and it being taken away from me before I get to have it
2) fucking up the healing process and not deserving this good thing i get to have
3) dying on the operating table?

that third one likes to appear during the day with my brain telling me i only have X amount of time to live so i better make use of it

I'm very clearly not fine lmfao

omg

Alisae · Post Post #158 (isolation #36) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:37 pm

i didn't know

Alisae · Post Post #159 (isolation #37) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:38 pm

I dunno what to say other than I hope you'll be ok. I can't imagine what it's like to be you

Alisae · Post Post #161 (isolation #38) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:39 pm

you're strong I believe you'll be okay.

Alisae · Post Post #163 (isolation #39) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:42 pm

Alisae · Post Post #166 (isolation #40) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:46 pm

LLD why did you pick 13?

Alisae · Post Post #171 (isolation #41) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:51 pm

In post 167, Ythan wrote:
In post 145, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 140, Alisae wrote: idunno Ythan I thought the way you were interacting with LLD it seemed like you were egging her on which is why I thought that you were kind of provoking her.
because she was

because she was fishign for a reaction and got anger and thinks that the anger and frustration is scummy which i guess is their right to believe.

They keep saying they think my reaction is impossible from town, which is....
I didn't say that. I find it unbelievable that you would react to the posts I made that way and I think you're faking it which means you are scum. I think that's a worthwhile distinction.

Why is it unbelievable?

Alisae · Post Post #175 (isolation #42) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:54 pm

tbh I picked 6 because my teammates are marashu and imaginality and I wanted to spell out the devil numbers as a team to spell out how doomed it is

Alisae · Post Post #178 (isolation #43) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:55 pm

In post 174, Ythan wrote:
In post 171, Alisae wrote:
In post 167, Ythan wrote:
In post 145, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 140, Alisae wrote: idunno Ythan I thought the way you were interacting with LLD it seemed like you were egging her on which is why I thought that you were kind of provoking her.
because she was

because she was fishign for a reaction and got anger and thinks that the anger and frustration is scummy which i guess is their right to believe.

They keep saying they think my reaction is impossible from town, which is....
I didn't say that. I find it unbelievable that you would react to the posts I made that way and I think you're faking it which means you are scum. I think that's a worthwhile distinction.
Why is it unbelievable?
I am pretty confident she would not assume I was trying to tilt her.

I find it to be super believable. I think it was very likely that she would get tilted tbh.

Alisae · Post Post #181 (isolation #44) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:58 pm

In post 177, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 175, Alisae wrote: tbh I picked 6 because my teammates are marashu and imaginality and I wanted to spell out the devil numbers as a team to spell out how doomed it is
don't.

ahahah

The real reason why I picked 6 is because I thought the people who would do research would realize that 6 was a pretty common pick and would stay away from it, and the people who didn't do the research wouldn't think to pick it! tbh it just felt like a number people wouldn't pick

Alisae · Post Post #187 (isolation #45) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:02 pm

LLD loves playing her wolf game to me but tbh she stated her intentions and I feel like she wouldn't want to kill me.

Alisae · Post Post #216 (isolation #46) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:49 pm

In post 86, Alisae wrote: It's a good interaction but it's late and I don't think people should be waking up to 8+ pages of you two just flinging shit at each other. That's just +scum I believe

I CAN SEE THE FUTURE

Alisae · Post Post #220 (isolation #47) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:53 pm

In post 4, implosion wrote: Menalque (1)
Datisi (1)
Bellaphant (19)
Cephrir (19)

LLD what do you think of the 2 1s and the 2 19s?

Alisae · Post Post #223 (isolation #48) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:55 pm

mith

has a red username so he must be mafia right?

Alisae · Post Post #226 (isolation #49) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:56 pm

In post 224, Bellaphant wrote: ....has the conversation moved on at all from page four? I don't want to read people shouting at each other.

no.

Hi Bella!

Alisae · Post Post #230 (isolation #50) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:00 pm

In post 225, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: I was informed that Datisi always picks 1 and not to pick it this game. Like, apparently Datisi always picks 1 to trust tell levels of confidence.

It's a bit weird that Ceph AND Bella both did 19, but not more weird than me and someoen else doing 13.

It kind of makes me think Menalque is town or else wouldn't someone have told them the Datisi fact?

Mena has Koba and Jingle on their team, so I wonder if it was intentional. Maybe not Jingle, but I think Koba is someone who might try to analyze and figure out what the best number to pick is.

I also noticed on observation that Datisi always picked 1, so I wonder if it's so they could try to line up with Datisi in the draft.

tbh I'm interested in why Ceph and Bella went w/ 19. 19 is a really odd number to me because I'm not sure how two people would reach the conclusion to pick 19.

Alisae · Post Post #238 (isolation #51) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:06 pm

In post 235, Ythan wrote: Also it feels like you're just like looking for some kind of like baseball stats to fill space with. I don't find what you're saying compelling I think you're fluffing. Sorry!

If you really feel this way why are you engaging with LLD?

Alisae · Post Post #244 (isolation #52) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:08 pm

tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.

Alisae · Post Post #249 (isolation #53) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:09 pm

In post 241, Bellaphant wrote: Last time I played this the numbers were much more spread at the top end, clearly the median thing had an impact.

Hi alisae!

I picked 19 entirely for sentimental reasons so was surprised to be a) so high compared to last time and b) duplicated!

P-edit if ythan isn't getting anything out of this then this interaction is incredibly+scum

I'm curious what Klick thinks of this and what's surrounding this:

In post 23, Ythan wrote: VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

The argument you are making does not make any sense to me.

<3

Alisae · Post Post #253 (isolation #54) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:10 pm

In post 248, Bellaphant wrote: Like now I want to tr alisea just for not shouting and sounding reasonable, and imaginality, a bit

In post 248, Bellaphant wrote: Like now I want to tr alisea

In post 248, Bellaphant wrote: to tr alisea

In post 248, Bellaphant wrote: alisea

In post 248, Bellaphant wrote: sea

In post 248, Bellaphant wrote: ea

I thought we were better friends than this brb crying >_<

Alisae · Post Post #257 (isolation #55) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:12 pm

In post 242, Ythan wrote:
In post 238, Alisae wrote:
In post 235, Ythan wrote: Also it feels like you're just like looking for some kind of like baseball stats to fill space with. I don't find what you're saying compelling I think you're fluffing. Sorry!
If you really feel this way why are you engaging with LLD?
She's a player in the game engaging with her is more meaningful to me than waxing on about how many scum picked x number in y games.

I mean if she's a wolf as you say she is, why are you talking to her? You're giving her the impression that there are words that can be exchanged when in reality there's not

Alisae · Post Post #259 (isolation #56) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:13 pm

In post 256, Bellaphant wrote: Alisea is prettier;)

y-y-know what that's fine.
that's ok!

Alisae · Post Post #267 (isolation #57) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:18 pm

In post 262, Ythan wrote: I'm not going to ignore questions and statements she directs to me. Do you honestly expect me to??

I feel like you should if you think she's a wolf or if you're not willing to be open-minded about it.

Alisae · Post Post #269 (isolation #58) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:18 pm

What good is coming from these interactions?

Alisae · Post Post #270 (isolation #59) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:19 pm

are we trying to demoralize the whole fucking playerlist 4 hours into the game?

Alisae · Post Post #274 (isolation #60) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:20 pm

I think 1 is a really good number to pick in the previous setup

Alisae · Post Post #287 (isolation #61) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:26 pm

am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?

Alisae · Post Post #290 (isolation #62) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:28 pm

In post 286, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: cause I'm comfortable enough to admit this is largely about my ego at this point

i want to prove you wrong

please stop
i'm annoyed
ME
I'M ANNOYED

Alisae · Post Post #294 (isolation #63) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:31 pm

VOTE: Marashu
LLD this one

Alisae · Post Post #297 (isolation #64) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:34 pm

In post 296, Ythan wrote:
In post 267, Alisae wrote:
In post 262, Ythan wrote: I'm not going to ignore questions and statements she directs to me. Do you honestly expect me to??
I feel like you should if you think she's a wolf or if you're not willing to be open-minded about it.
If you think you can provide one example of a post where I indicated that I was not willing to be open-minded to the possibility that I am wrong then I would love to see it, otherwise idk what you're getting at.

In post 231, Ythan wrote: No you can stop if you want it isn't really impacting my view of what you said at game start, which is a separate thing from the elaboration you are doing now after the fact. I apologize I expect that will be frustrating.

Alisae · Post Post #302 (isolation #65) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:37 pm

In post 244, Alisae wrote: tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.

tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"

Alisae · Post Post #307 (isolation #66) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:39 pm

In post 305, Ythan wrote:
In post 287, Alisae wrote: am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?
Lld vs ythan, please

Did I do something wrong? I'm sorry I'm confused

Alisae · Post Post #309 (isolation #67) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:40 pm

tbh I like Imaginality's read on rad I'm not sure that is likely to come from a wolf.

Alisae · Post Post #312 (isolation #68) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:43 pm

In post 308, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 302, Alisae wrote:
In post 244, Alisae wrote: tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.
tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"
you want the reason they are that way?

if scum don't double up they pick 3 different numbers right?

humans tend to pick similar numbers in games like these becaue we have similar thoughts and out guesses. Any one townie is about as llikely as not to double or triple up.

So when there are 3 scum all picking somethign different the odds they are tripling up onto a town's double up is substantial.

The odds you pick any 3 players in general and find a scum are already a thing, but this includes a bit of logic inwhere scum are trying to avoid town but won;t always succeed and they also need to pick numbers they can justify.

It happens because scum split apart... or group up. And in either case, they end up creating clusters.

I could understand it with a number like 1 but I can't understand it with a number like 6 unless whoever is a wolf just didn't think about it, which I think it something that would say something a lot bigger as a whole about the wolf team.

Alisae · Post Post #314 (isolation #69) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:44 pm

In post 310, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 307, Alisae wrote:
In post 305, Ythan wrote:
In post 287, Alisae wrote: am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?
Lld vs ythan, please
Did I do something wrong? I'm sorry I'm confused
nah her point here is that somehow I'm the one fighting her. It's a reframing device to make me look like the guilty party.

oh
so the only thing it's doing is it's adding fuel to the fire?

Alisae · Post Post #319 (isolation #70) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:45 pm

In post 315, Menalque wrote: I’ve read page 1 and 13 but I have no intention of voting anyone based on number vs play and I find the little argumentation I’ve read for voting based on number unconvincing

Good Morning Mena!

Alisae · Post Post #320 (isolation #71) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:46 pm

In post 318, Menalque wrote: Also if the game is moving this fast then imma be honest, I’m probably not gonna be playing that much until like d3 when numbers have gone down

Ythan and LLD have been fighting a lot for the past few pages and it REALLY added a lot to the thread and I'm not happy with it. It shows no signs of stopping which is

Alisae · Post Post #324 (isolation #72) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:49 pm

In post 316, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 312, Alisae wrote:
In post 308, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 302, Alisae wrote:
In post 244, Alisae wrote: tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.
tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"
you want the reason they are that way?

if scum don't double up they pick 3 different numbers right?

humans tend to pick similar numbers in games like these becaue we have similar thoughts and out guesses. Any one townie is about as llikely as not to double or triple up.

So when there are 3 scum all picking somethign different the odds they are tripling up onto a town's double up is substantial.

The odds you pick any 3 players in general and find a scum are already a thing, but this includes a bit of logic inwhere scum are trying to avoid town but won;t always succeed and they also need to pick numbers they can justify.

It happens because scum split apart... or group up. And in either case, they end up creating clusters.
I could understand it with a number like 1 but I can't understand it with a number like 6 unless whoever is a wolf just didn't think about it, which I think it something that would say something a lot bigger as a whole about the wolf team.
Any wolf could think like you did, Ali. How are you having this take when you literally admitted that you thought no one would take 6 because 6 is always taken.

I'm tired and it seemed like you were writing a bunch of words and it was all just a blur.

Alisae · Post Post #325 (isolation #73) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:50 pm

In post 322, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 320, Alisae wrote:
In post 318, Menalque wrote: Also if the game is moving this fast then imma be honest, I’m probably not gonna be playing that much until like d3 when numbers have gone down
Ythan and LLD have been fighting a lot for the past few pages and it REALLY added a lot to the thread and I'm not happy with it. It shows no signs of stopping which is
is Mena town or scum?

gun to head town?

Alisae · Post Post #329 (isolation #74) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:55 pm

In post 327, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 320, Alisae wrote:
In post 318, Menalque wrote: Also if the game is moving this fast then imma be honest, I’m probably not gonna be playing that much until like d3 when numbers have gone down
Ythan and LLD have been fighting a lot for the past few pages and it REALLY added a lot to the thread and I'm not happy with it. It shows no signs of stopping which is
also like, half my posting has been doing game solving with you so

Right...ya...That makes sense.
the fight just really stands out to me because I keep asking for it to stop but it just doesn't... I hope it doesn't go on and I have to read more of it when I wake up while I'm catching up.

Alisae · Post Post #332 (isolation #75) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:56 pm

Imaginality do you have a read on me?
I'm the person that railroaded you in the game we played together

Alisae · Post Post #333 (isolation #76) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:57 pm

I'm looking forward to playing with ya because I figured you're someone who I think I could sort and work with very easily.

Alisae · Post Post #335 (isolation #77) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:58 pm

Ythan do you have a read on me?

Alisae · Post Post #337 (isolation #78) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:02 pm

ok
i believe you believe that

Alisae · Post Post #340 (isolation #79) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:06 pm

In post 338, Ythan wrote: Keep that ego wrapped up tight lol.

jesus fucking christ help me

Alisae · Post Post #343 (isolation #80) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:10 pm

We can talk more once other players are readable

pedit: ok. I wrote that because I feel like this game can only get more frustrating and I hope it doesn't get that way

Alisae · Post Post #344 (isolation #81) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:12 pm

I'm going to try to refrain from posting until I wake up.

Alisae · Post Post #354 (isolation #82) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:36 pm

I think it’s an emotional read because it doesn’t make sense. LLD wants to kill the 6s. That includes me.
Sure we could be playing off each other, but if this was our aim why would she aim to put me in her wolf pool? That doesn’t make sense. I imagine she would want to keep me alive if we’re wolves together.

Like it’s a read I feel like doesn’t really take into consideration what LLD wants to actually do. I can see a read like this coming from a wolf but I really don’t think that’s the case. I think this is a read that is likely to come from town.

Alisae · Post Post #361 (isolation #83) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:47 pm

In post 358, Bellaphant wrote:
In post 354, Alisae wrote: I think it’s an emotional read because it doesn’t make sense. LLD wants to kill the 6s. That includes me.
Sure we could be playing off each other, but if this was our aim why would she aim to put me in her wolf pool? That doesn’t make sense. I imagine she would want to keep me alive if we’re wolves together.

Like it’s a read I feel like doesn’t really take into consideration what LLD wants to actually do. I can see a read like this coming from a wolf but I really don’t think that’s the case. I think this is a read that is likely to come from town.
I'm kind of here but I really/really/really don't want to spend the next 100 pages arguing about whether we should elim only in the sixes, when the answer is only 'maybe'.

Is it optimal? Possibly. Is it correct in this game? Slightly less possibly. Are we ever going to get everyone to do it?

Impossible.

So let's start scum hunting instead?

I want the other players in mafia game to post

Alisae · Post Post #377 (isolation #84) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:02 pm

Alissy

Alisae · Post Post #381 (isolation #85) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:06 pm

In post 378, Bellaphant wrote: Is that worse? Should I stop? Sorry, I'm doing it in love.

no it’s uh…
I mean I don’t mind I think it’s cute
I feel like I’m being teased and I’m ya uh

Alisae · Post Post #387 (isolation #86) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:12 pm

I am EMBARASSED >_<
I am probably BLUSHING x_x

Alisae · Post Post #393 (isolation #87) » Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:19 pm

Christ it’s 3am

Alisae · Post Post #482 (isolation #88) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:39 am

In post 389, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 387, Alisae wrote: I am EMBARASSED >_<
I am probably BLUSHING x_x
i stg I'm going to kill you if you keep pinging me like this

Alisae · Post Post #483 (isolation #89) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:40 am

In post 396, Menalque wrote:
In post 395, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: wait

so my team said datisi picks 1 every time, why did you pick 1 mena
I also pick 1 every time, Datisi can do one (<3)

ok so Datisi and Mena are likely to be aligned with each other.

Alisae · Post Post #484 (isolation #90) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:40 am

In post 399, Datisi wrote: why does gimli's 2 stand out to you ass opposed to my 1 or literally any other number ever

2 stands out as something I feel like a wolf picks cuz its below 1 and single digit

Alisae · Post Post #485 (isolation #91) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:42 am

In post 414, Marashu wrote: Alisae could be town (have we been in a game where I was town? I don't have time to check).

No this is our 3rd game together,

I want to think this player writes this as town?
UNVOTE:

Alisae · Post Post #487 (isolation #92) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:44 am

In post 415, Staeg wrote: Not fond of Rad's presence being the LLD null-or-town debacle + let's all take a breath, but the latter really isn't what I'd bill Rad for; Marashu's entrance being justify vote -> scumreading Rad for the moderation -> piggyback joke haha we're scum -> hop on Rad bandwagon was impressive, Gimli has the right idea

Implosion came in with good takes but then RVS'd instead of doing a real vote, which they still haven't moved; I like them following up on some of relevant setup theory bits ("this game does median, so how good is the data from previous games" + "you included the 1-in-5 as positive examples, but in reality those point in the opposite direction"), but they don't do anything with the protracted theory conversation (or otherwise) so I'm leaning scum on this one, too

VOTE: Marashu

I imagine the 2nd part is about imaginality?
I could see a wolf writing this.
What I liked about Imaginality is I feel like they were the first person to write a townread on Rad and I felt like what they put out isn't likely to come from a wolf?

Alisae · Post Post #488 (isolation #93) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:44 am

In post 408, Datisi wrote: like compared with alisae on this page, it seems like they're actually trying to defuse the situation and get these two to understand each other. am i townleaning alisae now? i might be.

Why do you think I am town for this?

Alisae · Post Post #489 (isolation #94) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:45 am

In post 424, Menalque wrote: I’m waiting to hear back on the limming in the 6s thing, but koba thinks scum is likely in Maru/ali so I guess I might end up backing a lim there anyway

Why does koba fos me?

Alisae · Post Post #490 (isolation #95) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:45 am

In post 425, Datisi wrote:
In post 421, Menalque wrote: Also the extent of the draft discussion was me saying “I’m gonna pick 1” and jingle saying “that’s cool” p much
i have a feeling this is a lie but i don't know why you would lie about this as scum or as town

like i feel like koba of all people seemed really excited for TM and i'm guessing they'd be giving thoughts about literally everyone and doing meta research or whatever, so i find it weird they apparently didn't chime in at all

but also i think they'd do it no matter what alignment you rolled so i'm overall ????????????

I feel mena's "I don't give a fuck" attitude towards picking 1.

Alisae · Post Post #491 (isolation #96) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:49 am

In post 453, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: my team reads right now include

a complete Ythan agreement, a dissonance on Bella (some of them think leaning on Klick is scummy, some of them think it's in character for Bella) a lot of null reads on Rad that I think I'm slightly higher town on then they are and an observation that Maru's slow start is typical for them and I should be cautious to scumread them for just a bad string of opening posts.

Why would leaning on Klick be wolfy?
I feel like regardless of alignment, Bella would try to show that Klick is participating.

Alisae · Post Post #493 (isolation #97) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:50 am

In post 459, Gimli wrote: I can feel klick's townyness through bella its so glorious

Ya I feel like this is something Bella would do as both alignments.
Bella TRing me for just be reasonable seems easy but they also stated their read on imaginality is stronger than on me so ig they could be town

Alisae · Post Post #494 (isolation #98) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:51 am

I would like to know Ceph's reads!

Alisae · Post Post #495 (isolation #99) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:53 am

In post 469, mith wrote: I'll just respond to this directly rather than making a massive wall picking apart previous posts.

In post 450, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:i agree with that as the base calculation, live evidence from past games suggests the number is higher in triplicate number choices, as would a cursory glance at scum selection choices and the kind of logic that is put in by scum to their choices.
Apologies if I missed this, but have you actually provided statistics on this evidence? I saw you reference a couple of specific games, which is not compelling (could be cherry-picking, deliberately or not).

In post 450, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:it's a fractional edge over picking 3 names at random from a strictly maths standpoint but that edge is increased IMO by the psychology of how the game is played and further redoubled in usefulness by not revealing town power structure via claims overmuch, especially when Scum chose Multitasking over informed, so they are decently in the dark, some info assuredly but a good chance they're missing a few different high power info roles they have to play around as a result.
1. I agree with you on the point about not revealing town powers this early. This is a good reason to not go after the singletons day 1.

2. Regarding the maths, there could be a small edge over picking 3 names at random, but there is a
larger
edge in picking scum from the singletons*.

I couldn't help myself and put together a little simulation; it's of course difficult to simulate a problem like this because of the psychology of closest unique to median (or lowest, in the other games), so I've simplified the problem as follows: 3 Mafia, 10 Town, town is picking randomly from a set of 10 numbers (10 is completely arbitrary here), Mafia is picking 0, 1, and 2:

Simulating 60000 games gave the following results:
Code: Select all
#     Mafia    Overall  Percentage       Expected
1     62960    226144	0.278406679	0.230769231
2     69553    150756	0.461361405	0.423076923
3     34894     59043	0.590993005	0.58041958
4     10285     14968	0.687132549	0.706293706
5      1992      2606	0.76438987	0.804195804
6       283       341	0.829912023	0.877622378
In this simulation, the probability of Mafia appearing in a group of 3 is up to 59% vs. 58% for an arbitrary set of 3 players. There's nothing particularly special about the groups of 3 though; overall, Mafia are more likely to avoid grouping (compared to an arbitrary selection of 3) because they are picking unique numbers compared to each other.

Additionally, we have the specific knowledge of how the numbers split. I would expect the likelihood of Mafia in specifically the one triplet
with the knowledge that we have the partition that we do
is actually slightly lower than 58%. (This follows directly from knowing the edge for singletons and pairs in the full simulation is much more significant.) Might write some code for this later just as an interesting math question; I just don't consider it all that relevant to the game.

* All of this depends on the likelihood of a scum gambit being negligible, of course. (Though I would guess that if we were 100% sure of a scum gambit with a singleton and a pair, it would be more likely mathematically for the pair to be on their own rather than as part of a triple?)

3. The "IMO" here seems like a far cry from your earlier rhetoric on this. (That said, I have really only skimmed the earlier argument at this point.)

------

Anyway, that's probably all the maths I will be doing on this (at least for the game, it's an interesting problem!). I'm not likely to base anything on how the numbers happened to fall beyond things like "we know Ythan has a role, we know Staeg likely has a role, etc., forcing a claim out of these slots day 1 would be counterproductive".

Initial reads coming later, I should probably get some work done. But in the meantime,
VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

you seem like you agree with LLD here? Maybe my reading comprehension is in the toilet, but if you two seem to think that it's likely that 3 wolves are in 6s, why are you voting her?
Also do you have other reads?

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:54 am

In post 486, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 482, Alisae wrote:
In post 389, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 387, Alisae wrote: I am EMBARASSED >_<
I am probably BLUSHING x_x
i stg I'm going to kill you if you keep pinging me like this

no please not this fucking emote again

I love yellow its funny

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:55 am

What would ping you about 387 though that's what I wanna know.

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:58 am

Also more importantly I don't wanna kill any 6s LLD...

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:03 am

In post 499, Cephrir wrote: Staeg maybe a tiny bit town

why?

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:11 am

tbh I just posted in that way because that's just how I felt in the moment. Bella misspelling my name in like 3 different ways after I said something about it comes off as playful teasing and I thought it was cute.
tbh 387 I feel like is a post I wouldn't try to read me from. I feel like there would probably be easier things I do you could grab onto to try to form a read.

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:17 am

In post 506, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: I think you know well enough I'm going to try and read people from things they don't police and polish more than things they do.

you really think this is the best way to go about reading me?

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:24 am

hmmmmmmmmmm ok that's fine

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:24 am

I'll try to make it easy for you

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:26 am

Also I feel honored that you feel like my wolf game is good enough to make you paranoid?

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:27 am

Anyway I don't think I wanna vote anyone who picked 6 so I think I'm probably just going to sit on my hands until more happens ig.
Honestly I thought I would wake up and the game would be more eventful than it currently is

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:34 am

I don't think I'm good at fooling people
I think I'm good at getting what I want but I consistently get put into situations where I just get boxed in and can't crawl out

I just won a game where I as a wolf always had full control of the game.
D1 I basically convinced multiple town to stack a bunch of votes and end the day on Imaginality way earlier than they should have.
D2 I force ended day.
D3 I faked a guilty
D4 I got the target I wanted dead dead
D5 I won by waring down a PB that knew I was a wolf but he couldn't kill me so he decided to just compromise on what I wanted him to compromise on.

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:36 am

In post 519, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 517, Alisae wrote: Anyway I don't think I wanna vote anyone who picked 6 so I think I'm probably just going to sit on my hands until more happens ig.
Honestly I thought I would wake up and the game would be more eventful than it currently is
Your thinking and your teams' thinking is Imagine and Maru are both town?

Sell me on it, please.

Like I said, I'm not a fucking lunatic. er, actually i take that back, I am a lunatic but I'm not incapable of adaptation. If people think the 6s are all town on play we can look elsewhere but I just don't see that yet.

You're the most notable person my teammates have talked about. Norwee in particular said your logic was strange.

I liked these posts

In post 288, imaginality wrote: In other news Rad feels town to me, 94 seemed to be genuinely trying to get a read on LLD.

This is a read I feel like isn't likely to come from a wolf.

In post 414, Marashu wrote: Alisae could be town (have we been in a game where I was town? I don't have time to check).

This feels like its coming from a town pov?

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:37 am

Shirou wanted me to butt heads with you but after I explained that I like to support you in earlier phases while keeping a careful eye, he backed down

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:37 am

In post 522, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 520, Alisae wrote: I don't think I'm good at fooling people
I think I'm good at getting what I want but I consistently get put into situations where I just get boxed in and can't crawl out

I just won a game where I as a wolf always had full control of the game.
D1 I basically convinced multiple town to stack a bunch of votes and end the day on Imaginality way earlier than they should have.
D2 I force ended day.
D3 I faked a guilty
D4 I got the target I wanted dead dead
D5 I won by waring down a PB that knew I was a wolf but he couldn't kill me so he decided to just compromise on what I wanted him to compromise on.
I know I was a big part of this but you literally scumclaimed by being a doctor on the night a confirmed town cop was shot and then lived through ELO anyway.

where's the yellow emote, I need it right now

I am referring to a different game! Imaginality was not in election

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:38 am

viewtopic.php?t=90686
This is the game I am talking about LLD!
I'm on Klickwork and all of my posting is me

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:38 am

Klick didn't make a single post btw he didn't wanna mess up everything that he felt like I was doing

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:06 pm

I have mulled it over and actually I think Mena + Datisi interactions are fake and also they collided and picked the same number.
Datisi apparently always picks 1 and Mena would always pick 1 regardless of if they knew Datisi would always pick one or not?

I also feel like Datisi shouldn't be TRing me for 117 and trying to defuse that fight.
VOTE: Datisi

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:46 pm

@Ythan

- Can I talk to Titus? What does Titus think is going on in this game? If she has any reads I would like to hear them!

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:50 pm

In post 530, mith wrote: Maybe a slight scumread on Alisae (but possibly just a style conflict).

talk to me?

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:52 pm

Also if you could elaborate on your Bella and Cephrir reads I would appreciate that

Alisae · Post Post #534 (isolation #120) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:15 pm

Reads first voting pattern next.

I think this post sums up my thoughts on Imaginality and Marashu

In post 521, Alisae wrote:
In post 519, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 517, Alisae wrote: Anyway I don't think I wanna vote anyone who picked 6 so I think I'm probably just going to sit on my hands until more happens ig.
Honestly I thought I would wake up and the game would be more eventful than it currently is
Your thinking and your teams' thinking is Imagine and Maru are both town?

Sell me on it, please.

Like I said, I'm not a fucking lunatic. er, actually i take that back, I am a lunatic but I'm not incapable of adaptation. If people think the 6s are all town on play we can look elsewhere but I just don't see that yet.
You're the most notable person my teammates have talked about. Norwee in particular said your logic was strange.

I liked these posts
In post 288, imaginality wrote: In other news Rad feels town to me, 94 seemed to be genuinely trying to get a read on LLD.
This is a read I feel like isn't likely to come from a wolf.

In post 414, Marashu wrote: Alisae could be town (have we been in a game where I was town? I don't have time to check).
This feels like its coming from a town pov?

I feel like whenever I read Rad posts it's a blank but I feel like above rand chance to be town I think? this is mostly based on how I think they went about that meta read but I would actually need to look it over.

Datisi + Mena could both be wolves. I think 528 sums that up.

Ythan is probably town and I am hoping that now that more people have posted and there's more to go off of she will make her alignment more obvious. I feel like I've written plenty of posts about Ythan while LLD and Ythan were posting. I'm annoyed with Ythan but that annoyance likely comes from the fact that I think she's town because it's like I want to vote her for showing no signs of stopping when I felt like I was pleading with the thread for it to stop. If I thought she was a wolf I would just vote her and be more proactive about it.

I might investigate Bella later but I remember liking her appeals to LLD with like "Can we start scumhunting now?" so I don't mind giving her more time to make herself more or less obvious
I feel like its either LLD is a wolf or wolves might want to push her, Bella might be one of those people, you could also be one of those people who might want to push a town!LLD.

I suspect Staeg because I felt like their post where they fos' imaginality and marashu was more focused on looking good and presenting something that's ironclad over wanting to actually be right

Alisae · Post Post #535 (isolation #121) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:19 pm

In post 8, Alisae wrote: VOTE: gimli

Started out here, thought wolves would probably submit a number like 2.

In post 51, Alisae wrote: LLD I'm an easy read.
I don't think my vote on imaginality does what you think it does but sure
VOTE: imaginality

Sheeping LLD here, I don't mind helping her out with what she wants to accomplish early if I don't have any real complaints. My vote doesn't do anything but I'm not going to argue about how it doesn't do anything, that just doesn't make sense.

In post 294, Alisae wrote: VOTE: Marashu
LLD this one

I believe this is after Imaginality's post? I switched onto Marashu here because I thought Imaginality could be town.

In post 485, Alisae wrote:
In post 414, Marashu wrote: Alisae could be town (have we been in a game where I was town? I don't have time to check).
No this is our 3rd game together,

I want to think this player writes this as town?
UNVOTE:

I find a reason to unvote Marashu and I think all of the 6s are town so I'm looking for things to explore and investigate

In post 528, Alisae wrote: I have mulled it over and actually I think Mena + Datisi interactions are fake and also they collided and picked the same number.
Datisi apparently always picks 1 and Mena would always pick 1 regardless of if they knew Datisi would always pick one or not?

I also feel like Datisi shouldn't be TRing me for 117 and trying to defuse that fight.
VOTE: Datisi

This seemed like a good pick so I went for that. I think trying to get more out of Datisi is what I want to be doing right now and I feel like that whole interaction on why they picked 1 somethin about that is just weirdge

Alisae · Post Post #536 (isolation #122) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:20 pm

What about my voting pattern seems strange?

Alisae · Post Post #537 (isolation #123) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:24 pm

In post 530, mith wrote: I think my current scumread of LLD is more to do with the volume and attitude of the numbers discussion more than with disagreeing over her conclusion (I don't currently have any reason to think she doesn't believe what she's been pushing about the scum-in-triple probability). It completely flooded the early game in a way that doesn't strike me as productive for town, where I can see plenty of benefit for scum to try to push on a particular group of players (potentially stifling other D1 discussion; and the argument about it has certainly had the effect of stifling my willingness to read through everything). I particularly don't care for the start of the argument with Ythan.

Like reading this, it seems like you think LLD's actions are something that could come from a wolf but I feel like if you're a wolf, it's pretty easy to want to push a read like this and hang onto it.
You could also be a villager and this is a valid concern. This is something I'm thinking about as well but I hoping I can get a clearer answer as to what's going on if I just let the game develop and just let LLD do what she wants to do.

Alisae · Post Post #538 (isolation #124) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:27 pm

I could also see Klick fos'ing LLD because during Demon Slayer game we were talking bantering about the game and the topic of LLD because I was wondering how Klick, a player whose scumhunting skills I respect, would approach LLD, and he told me that he found that he was able to always read LLD based on if they made sense or not.

So I would buy that Klick would have this fos on LLD but I'm hoping as the day goes on a bit longer, this develops more and what is happening in the game becomes clearer

Alisae · Post Post #542 (isolation #125) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:35 pm

In post 539, Datisi wrote: because i am used to scum-you having takes that make me wanna bang my head against the wall and this was Not That

Do you think I as a wolf am always going to have takes that make you wanna bang your head against the wall?
What about my takes make you feel that way?

--

In post 539, Datisi wrote: yeah ok no i still don't get why town wouldn't pick 2 or why it's more likely that scum did

considering it's RVS it's a complete shot in the dark guess!
Considering the gamestate, it's better than nothing!
I don't get why this is so worth digging into.

--

In post 539, Datisi wrote: yes we were both stubborn assholes in pregame wolfchat and picked 1 and then also picked multitasking you got me

idk how else to explain it other than it seemed so much different than what i remember of you in that recent micro where i was masons with ari

and also in that micro you seemed pretty fine with the thread being a shitfest (granted you were the one making it a shitfest by your points @ me) so i am unsure if you decide to play this by calming that down and also making good points that make sense while you do it

I've done it before, would you like some meta?
viewtopic.php?t=73827
This is a game where BeeBoy and Sakura just kept going at each other and it was awful and I decided to intervene and try to get those two to settle down and it was a really good play tm by me

Alisae · Post Post #543 (isolation #126) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:37 pm

In post 540, Datisi wrote: like where do you get the impression i shouldn't be townreading you for that or that i should know better or wtv

It just feels like you're trying to put out an early TR on me that you probably shouldn't have. I think as town you generally want to read me with caution and give me time because you can read me decently and you know to wait until I made my alignment more obvious.

Alisae · Post Post #544 (isolation #127) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:39 pm

In post 541, mith wrote: There was a disconnect for me with the Marashu vote specifically; makes more sense if you were still sheeping LLD on the 6s. I can't say I
understand
sheeping LLD there, but at least it's an explanation.

(This is likely my last post for the evening; time for dinner and getting the kids in bed. I will be hoping the posting frequency slows down at least a little bit so that I have a chance to actually catch up in the morning.)

Ya I figured LLD would want to vote Marashu with me if I indicated that I felt like I didn't want Imaginality. I don't think there's any reason for her not to unless she wanted to kill Imaginality which, I feel like I would have gotten an earful if that was the case. Voting Marashu seemed better than voting not voting

Alisae · Post Post #547 (isolation #128) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:42 pm

In post 546, Gimli wrote: Ali can be my second proper townread

y

Alisae · Post Post #550 (isolation #129) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:43 pm

In post 545, Datisi wrote: the gimli 2 thing

not even worth being annoyed about.
now youre just hanging on this cuz ??????????

Alisae · Post Post #551 (isolation #130) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:44 pm

In post 548, Gimli wrote: I already said why I picked number 2 don't make me repeat myself

Pedit: you seem to be hypersolving similarly to hollow knight and not slimy and full of crap like your scum games

hmmmmmmmmmmmm ok

Alisae · Post Post #553 (isolation #131) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:46 pm

In post 549, Datisi wrote: i literally have no clue where the fuck you pulled this out of

seemed like that was your approach to me in the past before self ban and after in warrior cats

In post 549, Datisi wrote: yes i know you often say that your alignment becomes obvious later on or whatever, but i literally never read you like that so where are you getting that expectation for me

how did u used to read me then like before self ban and warrior cats

Alisae · Post Post #555 (isolation #132) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:47 pm

In post 552, Datisi wrote: because that take made me think "holy shit alisae is pushing nonsense again alisae scum???" when i saw it so i wanted to ask about it??? and then your response didn't make sense????

ITS ON PAGE 1
DO YOU REALLY THINK I PUSH NONSENSE ON PAGE 1 AS A WOLF ITS LITERALLY RVS THOSE KIND OF VOTES ARE ACCEPTABLE DURING THAT PHASE.

its LITERALLY better than nothing!!!!!

Alisae · Post Post #556 (isolation #133) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:48 pm

In post 554, Gimli wrote: So why do you think number 2 is something scum would pick, Ali?

it is a single digit number that I feel like wolves would gravitate to. The only other single digit number is Ythan's 9 and the rest are just double digit

Alisae · Post Post #557 (isolation #134) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:49 pm

its literally better than nothing

Alisae · Post Post #559 (isolation #135) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:52 pm

In post 558, Datisi wrote: one game back in 2019???

the most notable instance was when I was playing on The M&Ms

Alisae · Post Post #560 (isolation #136) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:55 pm

I am UNSATSIFIED with your response mister the vote will stay.

Alisae · Post Post #563 (isolation #137) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:59 pm

Wow I call his tr on me fake and he votes me thats crazy

Alisae · Post Post #565 (isolation #138) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 2:00 pm

I mean I'm not really pursuing it anymore but I'm keeping it as a mental note as I try to read you.

What reads do you have?

Alisae · Post Post #569 (isolation #139) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 2:53 pm

In post 567, Rad wrote:
In post 556, Alisae wrote:
In post 554, Gimli wrote: So why do you think number 2 is something scum would pick, Ali?
it is a single digit number that I feel like wolves would gravitate to. The only other single digit number is Ythan's 9 and the rest are just double digit
I'm so confused... this statement isn't even true. More people went for single digit numbers than they did double digit, so... huh?? Why is 2 scummy? Your explanation isn't making any sense to me but maybe I'm missing something.

it stands out as the only other single digit number that only one person picked

Alisae · Post Post #571 (isolation #140) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 3:01 pm

In post 570, Rad wrote:
In post 569, Alisae wrote:
In post 567, Rad wrote:
In post 556, Alisae wrote:
In post 554, Gimli wrote: So why do you think number 2 is something scum would pick, Ali?
it is a single digit number that I feel like wolves would gravitate to. The only other single digit number is Ythan's 9 and the rest are just double digit
I'm so confused... this statement isn't even true. More people went for single digit numbers than they did double digit, so... huh?? Why is 2 scummy? Your explanation isn't making any sense to me but maybe I'm missing something.
it stands out as the only other single digit number that only one person picked
Ok but again, why is that scummy and not townie or NAI?

it's arbitrary but in the moment I saw it I thought it was likely to come from a wolf so I just did what my heart wanted to do and voted it.

it's a good rvs vote

Alisae · Post Post #572 (isolation #141) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 3:04 pm

Good in this case doesn't mean it'll lead to something fruitful. Everyone wants to be on top of the draft so like he could have just submitted 2 and thought no one else would have picked it as town. It could come from any alignment.

Good in this case means that it's likely to advance the game and help push it forward because people can comment about it

Alisae · Post Post #577 (isolation #142) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 5:14 pm

In post 575, Cephrir wrote:
In post 573, Rad wrote: Hey Gimli, I have you at neutral currently. I just ISO'd you and noticed you're interacting like someone who wants to just skate by and not stir the pot. Either alignment can do that but I do think that's a stronger scum strategy.

Got any scum leans yet or is all you've gotten out of this game a town lean on Bella and Ali?

Give me something spicy
did you just iso a random person to generate content or

What gives you this impression?

Alisae · Post Post #579 (isolation #143) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 5:16 pm

gun to head what alignment do you think posts that?

Alisae · Post Post #582 (isolation #144) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 5:25 pm

In post 581, Cephrir wrote:
In post 579, Alisae wrote: gun to head what alignment do you think posts that?
it struck me as scum on first glance but you questioning that has me doubting myself

I'm more interested to see where it goes.
The guy could just be town trying to generate content and post what's on their mind.

Alisae · Post Post #585 (isolation #145) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 6:24 pm

Rad what reads do you got?

Alisae · Post Post #589 (isolation #146) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:39 pm

In post 588, Bellaphant wrote: I think mith's readlist is really safe and boring but klick thinks this is probably town indicative.

Why does Klick think its town indicative?

Alisae · Post Post #590 (isolation #147) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:44 pm

Apparently the dog on our team thinks that mith sounds smart but not sure if town, datisi town, and lld wolf.
I am hoping he will explain some of these takes by the time I next talk to him

Alisae · Post Post #592 (isolation #148) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:53 pm

What does Klick think wolf!mith looks like?

Alisae · Post Post #594 (isolation #149) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:56 pm

I now have Cephrir has a townread

Alisae · Post Post #595 (isolation #150) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:57 pm

the thought occurred to me that I feel like wolf!Cephrir would be more proactive

Alisae · Post Post #597 (isolation #151) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:05 pm

are you still struggling with reads?

Alisae · Post Post #600 (isolation #152) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:08 pm

In post 537, Alisae wrote:
In post 530, mith wrote: I think my current scumread of LLD is more to do with the volume and attitude of the numbers discussion more than with disagreeing over her conclusion (I don't currently have any reason to think she doesn't believe what she's been pushing about the scum-in-triple probability). It completely flooded the early game in a way that doesn't strike me as productive for town, where I can see plenty of benefit for scum to try to push on a particular group of players (potentially stifling other D1 discussion; and the argument about it has certainly had the effect of stifling my willingness to read through everything). I particularly don't care for the start of the argument with Ythan.
Like reading this, it seems like you think LLD's actions are something that could come from a wolf but I feel like if you're a wolf, it's pretty easy to want to push a read like this and hang onto it.
You could also be a villager and this is a valid concern. This is something I'm thinking about as well but I hoping I can get a clearer answer as to what's going on if I just let the game develop and just let LLD do what she wants to do.

This is my biggest worry regarding mith

Alisae · Post Post #602 (isolation #153) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:13 pm

In post 601, Cephrir wrote:
In post 597, Alisae wrote: are you still struggling with reads?
yes

im viewing the game through the lens of my teammates' takes being correct at the moment as mine are, behind the 8 ball

Would u like help?

Alisae · Post Post #605 (isolation #154) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:21 pm

In post 603, Datisi wrote: *explaining* posts to those that made them and asking questions that seem to be leading to where they want is not sitting right with me

what the fuck are you talking about?

Alisae · Post Post #607 (isolation #155) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:28 pm

In post 603, Datisi wrote: like, the way they interacted w me about "why you so mad about gimli 2" and "how did you read me then" seems like alisae was trying to convince *me* of how *i* used to read them. and then using that to push me. and then when being corrected, saying "lol not good enough sorrey". it feels like going through the motions of asking me a question for the sake of appearing to think about it.

how do you read me

Alisae · Post Post #608 (isolation #156) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:29 pm

It can't only be "I only think Ali is a wolf if they make takes that make me want to bang my head against the wall" there has to be more to it than that

Alisae · Post Post #610 (isolation #157) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:53 pm

In post 609, Datisi wrote: like you're doing the i am telling you how you are supposed to be playing thing that's just not true

I am realizing that I may or may not be doing this and this is why I am trying to understand how it is you read me, I don't get the full picture of how you could possibly reach the conclusion I was town for 117 and actually wanting to break up that fight

Alisae · Post Post #613 (isolation #158) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:04 pm

In post 611, Datisi wrote: because it seemed like a nuanced and productive take that i don't associate with scum ali, and because i thought scum ali would benefit more from that fight happening, regardless of people's alignments in it

ironically enough this was an early read meant as a starting point for solving the game and you are getting hung up on it

ok
i gave you a game where I tried to break up a TvT between Beeboy and Sakura because I know those two fought with each other a lot and it would get me cred.
Does this introduction of new information change your read?

Alisae · Post Post #616 (isolation #159) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:15 pm

Datisi do you have reads

Alisae · Post Post #619 (isolation #160) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:44 pm

Users Bellaphant and Klick, how do you two feel about user Staeg?

Alisae · Post Post #620 (isolation #161) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:50 pm

In post 415, Staeg wrote: Not fond of Rad's presence being the LLD null-or-town debacle + let's all take a breath, but the latter really isn't what I'd bill Rad for; Marashu's entrance being justify vote -> scumreading Rad for the moderation -> piggyback joke haha we're scum -> hop on Rad bandwagon was impressive, Gimli has the right idea

Implosion came in with good takes but then RVS'd instead of doing a real vote, which they still haven't moved; I like them following up on some of relevant setup theory bits ("this game does median, so how good is the data from previous games" + "you included the 1-in-5 as positive examples, but in reality those point in the opposite direction"), but they don't do anything with the protracted theory conversation (or otherwise) so I'm leaning scum on this one, too

VOTE: Marashu

I see this post and I thought that this post was written more so to look good and be ironclad than to actually be right.

Alisae · Post Post #621 (isolation #162) » Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:52 pm

"Gimli has the right idea" could be strategical phrasing.

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:09 pm

ya know I forgot about marashu

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:09 pm

he said he would check back in a few hours but a few hours never came

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:10 pm

I'm still gonna go w/ my tr on that slot ya I'll just have my eye on it and see what it does next

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:11 pm

I look forward to what Imaginality posts next let's just say that!

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:13 pm

In post 628, Bellaphant wrote: Just me personally, I tend to find 'grey/forgettable ' slots more likely to flip scum. It's a rule of thumb rather than a commited read tho *shrug*

Not to start numbers shit but they were a six too.

I feel like Imaginality and Marashu like could be town. They could also be wolves maybe, but right now I think they're likely to be town?
If anything I'd see Staeg flipping wolf to be the most likely.

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:16 pm

Ythan vanished. Hopefully they come back soon

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:21 pm

if I was forced to vote a 6 I would probably vote marashu

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:23 pm

last game we played together he was bussed during twilight and I tried to shoot him n1 but he was rolestopped. He was also tracked.
I feel like Marashu is someone who should be easy to read. But if he's a wolf, he's probably just going to roll over and die.

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:25 pm

this makes me think if I had to vote in a 6 I would probably vote imaginality but like, I don't really like that either and I would like to give him time to play and form a read on him that way.

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:53 pm

In post 637, Datisi wrote:
In post 616, Alisae wrote: Datisi do you have reads
you'd know if you read my posts

Do you have a read on LLD?

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:55 pm

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:56 pm

What about Cephrir, how do you feel about Cephrir

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:02 pm

In post 643, Datisi wrote: tf you mean why, i feel like i don't have enough knowledge to read her current posting as AI (and even if i did, i probably wouldn't act on it yet)

try

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:03 pm

In post 643, Datisi wrote: i don't remember reading a single post of his that gave me any kind of feels

Cephrir I feel like feels like how he was in Warrior Cats

Alisae · Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:05 pm

tbh honestly what I really want to see is how you rread on me develops

Alisae · Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:27 am

Koba things aimlessness is a wolf trait for me?

Alisae · Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:32 am

I’m pretty sure it should be fine considering you’re still paraphrasing.

As town I’m like the wind. My reads change a lot and I’m always trying to solve. My solving should be obv. Lld also mentioned I’m chaotic and if that’s true, I do think chaos is +town

As wolf I’m a lot more manipulative, but also rigid in my stances. I know what I want and I try to put a lot of energy into trying to get what I want. I prefer things to be a lot more orderly when I’m a wolf because those are the gamestates that are easier to control.

Alisae · Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:33 am

If anything I would say as a wolf I can be predictable where as villager me is unpredictable

Alisae · Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:36 am

What posts did I come across as aimless to Koba?

Alisae · Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:38 am

Mena can u give me reads on cephrir, Bella, Mith, and lld?

Alisae · Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:51 am

Oh another thing I like doing as a wolf is I like taking the path of least resistance

Alisae · Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:57 am

Generally speaking when I rand wolf I’m the person willing to get their hands dirty

Alisae · Post Post #662 (isolation #185) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:07 am

I think this is town!ceph because he is struggling which reminds me of warrior cats

Alisae · Post Post #663 (isolation #186) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:08 am

I can see a Bella-Ceph-Mith team though if I squint really hard

Alisae · Post Post #666 (isolation #187) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:10 am

I’m not putting my read on lld at this time

Alisae · Post Post #667 (isolation #188) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:10 am

In post 665, Menalque wrote: also Ali when do you sleep lol

It’s 5am I stayed up cuz it’s what I do and also I was hoping I could talk to ya

Alisae · Post Post #668 (isolation #189) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:13 am

In post 600, Alisae wrote:
In post 537, Alisae wrote:
In post 530, mith wrote: I think my current scumread of LLD is more to do with the volume and attitude of the numbers discussion more than with disagreeing over her conclusion (I don't currently have any reason to think she doesn't believe what she's been pushing about the scum-in-triple probability). It completely flooded the early game in a way that doesn't strike me as productive for town, where I can see plenty of benefit for scum to try to push on a particular group of players (potentially stifling other D1 discussion; and the argument about it has certainly had the effect of stifling my willingness to read through everything). I particularly don't care for the start of the argument with Ythan.
Like reading this, it seems like you think LLD's actions are something that could come from a wolf but I feel like if you're a wolf, it's pretty easy to want to push a read like this and hang onto it.
You could also be a villager and this is a valid concern. This is something I'm thinking about as well but I hoping I can get a clearer answer as to what's going on if I just let the game develop and just let LLD do what she wants to do.
This is my biggest worry regarding mith

Alisae · Post Post #671 (isolation #190) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:15 am

Bella is someone who I initially have down as town for the “can we get on with scumhunting” appeal. On a cursory view she’s fine but I can imagine myself wanting to revisit the player deeper into the day phase

Alisae · Post Post #673 (isolation #191) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:16 am

In post 669, Menalque wrote: okay so just mith and Bella then?

also what do you see as scum for dats if ur serious there

also I will NOT BE POCKETED THIS GAME. no pockets. I don't like them they're scratchy and too warm

I just thought their tr one me is fake but I’m chillin cuz I introduced them into new information and meta and I wanna see what read they come out with on me after doing more research

Alisae · Post Post #674 (isolation #192) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:17 am

In post 672, Menalque wrote: also koba doesn't know what you meant by "aimless"

It was what u said

Alisae · Post Post #676 (isolation #193) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:18 am

In post 670, Menalque wrote: I mean I kinda think that mith is exactly right there even if I'm reserving judgement on lld for a bit longer, and that's part of why I think he's town

It’s an idea I want to investigate once we have a more developed day. For example, if this is what lld is doing as a wolf, who is her teammates and who is she trying to protect

Alisae · Post Post #679 (isolation #194) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:20 am

I mean I agree, I’m just stating the basic questions I feel like would need answers

Alisae · Post Post #681 (isolation #195) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:21 am

In post 680, Menalque wrote:
In post 528, Alisae wrote: I have mulled it over and actually I think Mena + Datisi interactions are fake and also they collided and picked the same number.
Datisi apparently always picks 1 and Mena would always pick 1 regardless of if they knew Datisi would always pick one or not?

I also feel like Datisi shouldn't be TRing me for 117 and trying to defuse that fight.
VOTE: Datisi
was this serious? partially from koba partially from me

it’s what I felt like doing at the time.
I wasn’t thrilled about how you talked around picking 1 and those interactions

Alisae · Post Post #683 (isolation #196) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:22 am

In post 682, imaginality wrote: Hiya, I'm around for an hour or so in case anyone has questions right now for me. There are a few things I noticed I want to comment on before I sleep.

(Also I should be more available over the next few days - yesterday's wisdom tooth removal and today's work meetings did a number on me today.)

Hi did you catch up? What do you got for us?

Alisae · Post Post #686 (isolation #197) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:25 am

In post 428, Menalque wrote:
In post 425, Datisi wrote:
In post 421, Menalque wrote: Also the extent of the draft discussion was me saying “I’m gonna pick 1” and jingle saying “that’s cool” p much
i have a feeling this is a lie but i don't know why you would lie about this as scum or as town

like i feel like koba of all people seemed really excited for TM and i'm guessing they'd be giving thoughts about literally everyone and doing meta research or whatever, so i find it weird they apparently didn't chime in at all

but also i think they'd do it no matter what alignment you rolled so i'm overall ????????????
I think bc it was over the weekend and I haven’t been around much? Idk koba is helping but they’re more focused on the others’ games

I’m not doing much except reading specific bits that I’m asked to of the others’ games but in exchange I’m not asking anyone to focus mine too much

In post 426, Datisi wrote:
In post 421, Menalque wrote: It takes two to tango friend-o

did you pick 1 despite knowing i always pick it

or maybe because 1 always pick it?
I’m pretty sure I’ve also always picked it? And had totally forgotten that you do that too lol

I will say this: had I known you always pick it, I still would’ve picked it

This double down feels faked

Alisae · Post Post #689 (isolation #198) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:27 am

I came out of a wolf game where I as a wolf railroaded imaginality d1 elim

Alisae · Post Post #692 (isolation #199) » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:38 am

In post 690, imaginality wrote: @Menalque I'm familiar with basically no-one. Like Alisae says there was that game recently.
And I was in chatGPT with you. Sorry for shooting you :p

I might've been in a game or two with others if they were in alts or hydras. I don't really do meta though (used to in my first incarnation, this time round life's too short so I focus mostly on intra game reasons to read people, though it's helpful to hear the meta thoughts of other less lazy people).

Further back I remember being in a game with Gimli back around 2008 or so (science mafia or space mafia or something), and iirc Cephrir was also in EHOBANOHAR or whatever it was called back then too, I don't plan to try to reread games from back then for meta though lol.

I was on Klickwork