TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime! | Endgame
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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I mean... 9 alive, mastina/ofhrz/hito all conftown, chem/Kerset functionally conftown.
That leaves a lynch pool of me/shadow/bit/Klick. If the conftown are accurate, we can just chain lynches through the remainder. If they aren't, chem/kerset both have the theoretical ability to stop a kill/clear a slot and have to go immediately if town. If they don't die, they have to clear someone in the lynch pool or justify why they're alive, which means they can't endgame. Ofhrz can shoot someone in the lynch pool.
I don't see how town loses from here, tbh.
If Kers can stop a kill, he protects chem. ofhrz picks a target in the lynch pool, and investigations choose someone inside the lynch pool but outside of the vig target.
I don't think who we lynch particularly matters at this point, other than, y'know, maybe we three consecutive scumlynch for bragging rights.
PEdit: Klick's claim is :eyebrows:This is a Parachute.-
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She does, actually. Ask RC why he's spying on my mom's feet. That's pretty weird.
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If ofhrz shoots outside of PoE he dies. If he doesn't shoot he can't win. If scum can shoot, they have to kill him because if he's a vig they're fucked.In post 2225, Klick wrote:My pet theory is that ofrhz is SK here. It would make sense with all the town power. It's not that relevant for now though since sorting a third mafia is much more important.
ofSK is like 0% threatening.
Mastina doesn't die tonight.
Hito doesn't die tonight.
Chem/Kers/of all have to die fast for a scumwin. of dying gets rid of paranoia, so no protection there.
We actually might want to have chem/kers fullclaim so as to take advantage of their third actions. Knowing whether Chem can full clear/Kers can protect is useful to theoretically leashing Klick's doc. Lynch bit, vig me or Shadow, of's choice but he outs before nightfall.This is a Parachute.-
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If we have multiple protections, having them on different targets is good.
If we have multiple investigations, having them on different targets is good.
If we have scum faking actions, accountability is good. (Klick can't kill Kerset and claim to have docced Chem, for example.)
It's not worth outing whether of still has shots (if we don't scum has to play around him having the shots which benefits us either way).
I'm kinda thinking Klick is the only one who needs to have a strict answer on who to protect, unless Kerset has a 1 shot doc in their arsenal. If Kers can doc Chem and Klick can doc Kers, scum has to kill in ofhrz and the PoE pool. Chem can clear someone in the PoE pool, and scum is further fucked.
So I guess, I want to know if Kerset can protect Chem or if Klick should just be on Chem.This is a Parachute.-
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If I had been scum this game we would have planned fakeclaims D1 and vig wouldn't have been anywhere near the table.In post 2282, hitogoroshi wrote:Jingle what did you mean here
I don't see how Mena's claim has anything to do with his team; is that something you're using to generate reads somehow?In post 2199, Jingle wrote: Mena's claim never comes from one of my partners. (Mechanical)
Mastina should be able to corroborate, but honestly it doesn't matter since I don't think it matters if I'm on the lynch table here.This is a Parachute.-
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Stop using hyperbole. I’m sure it took you a few pages to get that read.In post 2286, Chemist1422 wrote:first post is a locktown postThis is a Parachute.-
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Alternative theory, mena was scum in both games and wanted to mitigate “Oh shit he snowed me as scum paranoia” and I fell for it.In post 2290, Kerset wrote:Farkran thinks that 1440 points at scum!jingle, because Mena was deliberately lurking. "he was being quiet here in order to hide from Jingle in the other game. Which is why he was lurking.
I agree that I’m a fine vig/investigation, though, whichever ofhrz decides.This is a Parachute.-
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I'm fine with reversing chemist and Kerset.In post 2309, hitogoroshi wrote:no one claim talisman receipt or results until we figure out order!!
my thoughts are ofrhz, kerset, klick, chemist, jingle, shadoweh, myself. with folks claiming their full role, actions, and anything that happened to them on their turn and not before. we can talk out other orders but I don't want claims slipping out until the order is resolved.
this order is not at all a reflection of reads but just sort of "the people who could warp their results the most first, and the people who couldn't take advantage of that info as scum last" plus some secret sauce since I know what I did
p.edit oh but chemist after jingle is the one read-based exception, Jingle I think chemist should always go after Kerset after how D2 went
I'm still a VT and didn't act last night, although I may or may not have received an invention.
I'm waiting for a PP clarification that may just guilty Klick, but you should probably ask how your talisman and a doc would interact in case he won't answer me. I assume mastina fakeclaimed 1 shot BP into full BP (because duh), but if not then that necessitates a second scum strongman shot, which is interesting.This is a Parachute.-
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Not yet.
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I have three guilties on whoever we lynched D1.In post 2314, hitogoroshi wrote:Jingle just pretend nothing is guilty or inno until we walk the line of claims, right now I wanna play gunboats and see if we can just win mechanically.
Also, I forgot to submit my "Vanilla all over the thread" action and Penguin says I'll have to be satisfied with the mess I left N1.This is a Parachute.-
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I mean... if it's loved, we can check it. We put Kers to dead and check to see if he actually dies.In post 2346, hitogoroshi wrote:The reason I put VT's last was to check the blind spot of Kerset permanent ascetic. If Kerset was ascetic, going so early in the order would have made it really dicey to claim talisman receipt or not even if he also had a rolecop on my third talisman (or a guess, it's a natural complement to hated). He'd have to be a really ballsy ascetic to guess he got it that early.This is a Parachute.-
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I mean... We absolutely check Kerset for asceticism today, because why wouldn't we?
BP doesn't show up to followers, explicitly. It only sees active use powers. Also, scum doctor for a 1 shot vig is like the stupidest design choice ever.
Ideally the lynch order FMPOV would be literally everyone else. Is there any reason you dropped Shadow from your lynch consideration post hito? Was there a required order for your talismans? Was talisman use compulsive?
VOTE: Kerset
Trying to prove/disprove loved, we should be 4 to lynch and Kerset/Klick/Chem can be trusted not to hammer. The rest of us can go ahead and vote here and then unvote when we know there isn't a fakeclaim of Loved receipt.This is a Parachute.-
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For completeness, a kill on Kerset also explains the missing N2 kill, but I have no idea why anyone would have shot Kerset at that point.In post 2359, hitogoroshi wrote:The N2 kill was either a scum no-kill, a double-stack on Alisae, or I shot mastina knowing it'd fail for WIFOM.This is a Parachute.-
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Hito, was the bulletproof BP for the next night or BP specifically for N2? It doesn't matter much, but it is an interesting distinction for setup spec.
Chem/Kers, can you confirm that your action order was voluntary? I assume it was, but I just want to make sure.
Flipped
1 Shot Strongman
2 Shot Roleblocker
Alien
1 Shot Friendly Neighbor
2x VT
Proven
Compulsive Inventor (Loved/Hated/N2BP)
Protective (2 Shot Doc?)
Targeting Role (TrackJoat)
Self-Blocking role (CommuteJoat)
Claimed
JOAT (FN/Commute/Visit)
JOAT (Track/Watch/Follow)
N2 Vig
Setup synergy seems to suggest that the JOATs are accurate claiming
Lets look at the setup if all of the PR claims are town.
1 Shot Strongman
2 Shot Roleblocker
???
JOAT (FN/Commute/Visit)
JOAT (Track/Watch/Follow)
N2 Vig
2x Doc
Alien
Loyal Neighborizor
4x VT
Rolecop isn't particularly helpful here, actually. That's a potential 2 clears N1. Doc/Vig/Alien are all antisynergy. Commute/Alien/Neighborizor/Roleblocker are all antisynergy. Scum get pretty much whatever N1 kill they want. Town has a pretty decent shot at just crushing N2 and on though. Using some pretty handwavy math we had a roughly 50% shot of mastina failing to clear a player N1, and she should never have gotten a guilty, period. Similarly, the FN was a similarly complete crapshoot (also, interestingly, not best used N1). That's still an insane amount of town power.
There's no reason for scum to have a protective in addition to a roleblocker if there's only one town shot period, so Klick is fullconftown in my eyes.
Kerset being scum commuter actually strengthens town, I think? I definitely don't think it solves anything. Kerset's actions are definitely the most questionable, but I don't think them being the scum really solves much.
Hito being scum explains mastina dying today at a surface level, but I don't think hitoscum kills mastina there. It puts a spotlight on him as the person who is most likely to know that mastina is vulnerable and there were just safer kills to make. Mastina was fullpocketed and there was an excuse for why she survives, but if he shoots Kers/Klick he can set up Chem/ofhrz/Kers/Klick to be lynchable and I think scum hito realizes that. It also makes complete sense for someone to assume mastina was gambiting with the BP, and I doubt anyone other than me in this list would have thought about the doc/BP interaction keeping the BP shield up on mastina. Fuck, even if I were scum here I probably would have shot mastina to remove the BP shield I thought was there.
Shadoweh/me has to have an insane role to balance this, I think. I can't think of anything that just outright does it. I also don't think Shadoweh plays the end of D1 the way shadoweh did as scum who was watching a policy lynch on the strongman partner. If she's scum here, she really got screwed by the rand.
Chem bussing Mena there is just... Ballsy AF. Maybe I should reread that, but I don't see it coming from scum the way hito presented it.
Ofhrz scumvig might solve the issue with balance? There's an awful lot of town protective power. If ofhrz is a scum vig or a second strongman, she could easily have intended to claim her kill coming into the day on the assumption that town had a shit ton of protective power.
I guess that leaves me at
Jingle/Klick
hito
Chem/Kers
Shadow
ofhrz
with Chem/Kers as reversible depending on whether I put more weight on mechanics or play.
Kers- walk us through your thoughts with your PR as fully as you can.This is a Parachute.-
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SS thinks Kers's claim blows, FL thinks Chem makes the most sense balance wise, which is roughly where I already was. SS says the ascetic claim with a commuter partner makes sense if he knew he was going down, and it definitely looks like he was resigned to going down. RCE agrees and says the WIFOM there is another good reason to claim ascetic when your partner is a high invest equity functional ascetic. Kerset commuting as last scum is another potential reason for the missing N2 kill.
I'll be leaving behind my WIFI for a couple of weeks later tonight, so will be mobile posting only from then on. I should still be able to participate, just with shorter posts.This is a Parachute.-
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1 Shot Strongman
2 Shot Roleblocker
Multitasking Ninja Rolecop
JOAT (FN/Commute/Visit)
JOAT (Track/Watch/Follow)
N2 Vig
2 Shot Doc
2 Shot Alien
Loyal Neighborizor
3 Shot Inventor (Loved/BP/Hated)
3x VT
To clarify, this is your proposed Setup, Kers?
Why did you target jj D1? Why did you commute N2?This is a Parachute.-
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This is my issue with it, btw, not that jjh wasn’t a townread of yours. Surely you’re aware that clears get stronger the later they come.In post 2406, Kerset wrote:Use of commute on n1 was also out of question, because i wanted to clear myself with fn as soon as possible.
Similarly, did jj strike you as the kind of player who would be likely to be alive at endgame if town? If so, why?
Why did you commute the night after a town pr outed? Did you think you were a valuable scumkill? If you were a high priority investigation, why not try to telegraph that you were uninvestigatable? Why were you concerned about specifically vigs when at the time there was no sign of a vig afaict?This is a Parachute.-
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You said you were likely to be vigged, which overlaps entirely with the investigation pool.
Assuming instead that vig is likely, why try to stop the vig on yourself when it doesn’t actually make you more believable as town?
And yes, I’m going back with new information to try to understand your thought process, because that’s the only way to judge your actions at this point.This is a Parachute.-
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Huh, I thought my reasons to townread post was today. I guess if you don’t think asking about motivations isn’t mechanical then yeah, I’ve been playing mechanically since massclaim, chem.
@Kers: my plan as scum is to ask about motivations of a player who hito already wants to kill before me to live longer? Do you wanna explain that?
Also, what does your intentions being different coming into d2 have to do with your motivations n2? I want to know what you were thinking after both the jj and mena flips. If anything, I’d assume you’d have more recollection of your thoughts when your expectations were smashed.This is a Parachute.-
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Probably you.
Lynching you doesn’t save me.
You explained why you thought you’d be likely to be vigged, but not why town you wants to stop that when you have no way to prove yourself town.
I think I’m okay with me kers in either order but SS is still asking questions in the team pt. Kerset is probably just it. He’s doing exactly what he’s accusing me of even though I’m pretty provably not doing it.
The more I think about it, the more I think ofhrz claim just makes sense as town here. The shitton of protectives and a vig fit with the theme of Negative synergy to balance. The three one shot roles fits design symmetry for the vig to be a true claim for town. Alisae doesn’t make sense as a scum kill at all.
Kers is hardcore shading all of me/ofhrz/shadow which coincidentally is the number of mislynches scum needs to win and his posting all rings of “How do I survive” not an actual desire to solve the game.This is a Parachute.-
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But like, seriously, why does scumofhrz kill Ali? Ali is tunneled on bitmap and was the one to start bitmap as counter to Reundo again. Es basically a free mislynch.
Why does kers’s claimed motivation for using the commute match exactly the scum motivation for using a commute? “There might be a vig who shoots me” is not a town commuter thought process.This is a Parachute.-
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Yup. It’s totally more reasonable that last scum ofhrz shoots the person tunneled on a mislynch who was themselves an obvious mislynch and commits to it N2 to make a shitty fakeclaim possible when shooting me or you makes the same fakeclaim possible without getting rid of a tvt fight. Not to mention Ali was like the last person who would’ve given mastina a bp, so any other other murky town shot would’ve been potentially better for scum by killing a powerful town role they knew existed. Before all of the claims. Then, ofhrz shoots mastina because really, they were actually a rolecop who knew that Hito only gave away a bp for the next night instead of a 1 shot bp or a full bp like mastina claimed. But she didn’t just shoot Hito with this knowledge instead of alisae because that would... not reduce the validity of the big claim in the slightest, Hito was under a ton of suspicion preclaim.In post 2428, Kerset wrote:kers is digging for any reason they can find to get ofhrz lynched, so they don't die.
And this magical ballsy fakeclaim ends up showing perfect setup synergy.
Yeah... that’s not a thing. Ofhrz is klick level conftown.This is a Parachute.-
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Bonus points: Kerset is arguing BOTH that ofhrz is fakeclaiming vig as scum and that they commuted to duck a vig kill, with the two of them having roughly the same information available. Faking a vig as scum when there is a vig is literally suicide but apparently at that point it was reasonable to assume there WAS a vig.This is a Parachute.-
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So... scum ofhrz chose not to shoot conftown mastina (who, as you just pointed out was not known to be bp) in order to make literally the worst scum kill in a game where he knows fuckall about towns power level other than it justified whatever the scumteam had to make arguably the worst scum kill. (Note, not a good vigkill but the worst scumkill. While it was a decent enough vigshot, that’s not what’s relevant here.) He did this to maybegambit a vig on alisae claim, again without much setup knowledge and with a flipped town protective role. And, in order to justify this ofhrz must be an at least 2 shot multitasking rolecop because she both rolecopped Hito night 2 AND killed alisae, and also didn’t rolecop any of the actual power in the game n1, including mastina who was softclaiming pr like crazy day one, because mena clearly had no idea what her role was.In post 2437, Kerset wrote:
If he is scum then you make better tvt then ali for sure. If you deeply believe that he made correct vig kill then it means that he did a good job at selecting his target. Dead town is dead town, mastina was the only revealed PR at the time.It’s totally more reasonable that last scum ofhrz shoots the person tunneled on a mislynch who was themselves an obvious mislynch and commits to it N2 to make a shitty fakeclaim possible when shooting me or you makes the same fakeclaim possible without getting rid of a tvt fight.
Vest was revealed on day 3. Kill was made on n2. If you knew that "gift" is protection rather then any other power at this point, then good for you.Not to mention Ali was like the last person who would’ve given mastina a bp, so any other other murky town shot would’ve been potentially better for scum by killing a powerful town role they knew existed.
If you use rolecop on n2 then you get your info, after n2kill. It is useful only for n3 kill.Then, ofhrz shoots mastina because really, they were actually a rolecop who knew that Hito only gave away a bp for the next night instead of a 1 shot bp or a full bp like mastina claimed. But she didn’t just shoot Hito with this knowledge instead of alisae because that would... not reduce the validity of the big claim in the slightest, Hito was under a ton of suspicion preclaim.
Bonus points: Kerset thought that this game has no VT and he was wrong. It appears that different people think in different ways. I don't know whenever vig exist or not but i suspect to be one. I had to commute on n2 or n3 anyway so odds were in favor.
The whole point of reading is to look at things from proper POV, which is thing that you for some reason can't do. You can't look at things from either different player or different point of time. That is why i am able to read well jjh or bitmap, when others are blinded by relations.
That makes less sense than “Hito shot the bp he gave to mastina.” as a gambit. Your argument that “It’s good because it worked doesn’t make any fucking sense because no one would do that as scum.
If I got tracked to a kill on my partner in a mini and then won because there was no vig that wouldn’t be good play, that would be getting incredibly lucky after making an insanely bad play. No scum would make the choices you’re saying scum ofhrz made because they’re just bad choices. Your narrative is a way to justify an ofhrz scumread, not a legitimate ofhrz scumread.
Now respond to the whole, you’re accusing me of doing something you yourself are doing but which I’m not portion.This is a Parachute.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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Hito, Ali and msg mutually scumread each other until bitmaps death. Mastina spent several paragraphs talking about the likelihood of scumisae after e flipped.
Ali wasn’t obvtown by any metric.
Ofhrz, stop trying to gamethrow when I’m trying to solve. You want me lynched? Fine. Let me at least make the arguments for the person you presumably KNOW to be town to be excluded from the lynch pool before you flip me. If I’m wrong and kers is town, I’d at least like the chance to win by hitting the scum in shadow/chem instead of just losing to you being an asshat. Thanks.This is a Parachute.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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This combination BoP and discredit attempt is pretty fucking hilarious regardless of your alignment, given that your “I read these two players accurately!” Is the n1 scumkill I sheeped onto the day one lynch and the d3 lynch who self destructed and self hammered, AND that I’m a player who has consistently claimed to be fairly shit at subjective reads.In post 2437, Kerset wrote:That is why i am able to read well jjh or bitmap, when others are blinded by relations.
“I’m clearly amazing because I was roughly on par with you in the element of the game you’re the worst at!”
Fucking lol.This is a Parachute.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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I still want a couple of days to decide between shadow/chem, but yeah I think that’s fine with me too.In post 2447, Klick wrote:I'm pretty happy with Kerset > Jingle > Shadow as a solve, to be honest.
Kers, assuming both of us flip town who is your third?This is a Parachute.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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Actually, if we’re committing to that I think I prefer me -> shadow -> kers as the order, as a play around to ofhrz being an sk and so I don’t have to use as much data. If she is sk, I think kers is probably town by balance so the last scum would have to be in me/Shadoweh.
Also worth noting, if town has the chance to kingmake scum or sk, they should kingmake sk so fewer teams are ahead of them in breakers.This is a Parachute.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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I don’t see how klicks order plays around you scum.In post 2454, Chemist1422 wrote:If you think that it’s more likely there’s an SK than me being scum go with Jingle’s order
Otherwise go with Klick’sThis is a Parachute.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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Ofhrz makes less sense as scum than Hito, we’re not lynching her.In post 2460, Kerset wrote:
Ofrhz is my first. If we both flip town after that then this game is over.In post 2449, Jingle wrote:Kers, assuming both of us flip town who is your third?This is a Parachute.