nope ur fucked upIn post 3583, Shadoweh wrote:okay so like, ive only had one glass of wine and i f i lii k carefully at the keybolard is doesn't bemess up that much
Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six
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How?In post 3586, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Doesn't matter.In post 3584, Gamma Emerald wrote:
...except I was just told my reasoning for voting was wrong?In post 3580, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Yeah, but the thing is, if the votes are what they were, you have noIn post 3578, Gamma Emerald wrote:
AgreedIn post 3574, LicketyQuickety wrote:Also, I am pretty sure this rules out a Dunn/Marquis team
Also re: the next post and the point that my hop on hop off with Dunn was town-indicative, I'm not sure why? It's just me being a dum-dum imo.incentiveto get off in the first place, because you have far more incentive to stay on to keep the votes from flipping on to a Scummate, which can happen sometimes. I am not explaining this very well, but basically, it's completely unnecessary for you to move your vote at all in that spot because you have literally NOTHING to gain by doing so.<Embrace The Void>
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Okay then. Thanks for helping me with that.In post 3596, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Well, then you are not really doing VCA, but "Does the reasons for player X voting player Y makes sense?"In post 3592, Gamma Emerald wrote:Excuse me no? I try to factor in reasoning when analyzing votes.
There is a concept in mathematics where if there is even one extra thing that could have an influence on the outcome of what you are trying to calculate that it becomes impossible to predict what the result will be. That's is basically what you are doing when you try and mix and match VCA with looking at reasons for why someone voted someone. The reasons in this case, obfuscate the method to say who is Scum by mathematical means.<Embrace The Void>
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Currently working through CES ISO for associatives, here's what I'm thinking so far
Marquis/Shadoweh looks town, CES seems to have been trying to mislynch that slot the whole game
Shea might be town, CES defends Shea a lot, but never says Shea is town, just says Shea is "Sheaey"<Embrace The Void>
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Marquis/Shadoweh should be off the table from now on, I ISOed CES ctrl-f'ing Marquis and the actions of CES towards Marquis are not scum theatre, they those of a scum trying to push low-hanging-fruitIn post 3609, Ranmaru wrote:I want Davsto, Shea, and Quick to each give their case on why they think I'm scum and should go. I actually want this day to be RANMARU v MARQUIS rather then just 'DUNNSTRAL DAY'. Then I'll try to explain my mindset and try to show who the real scum are. I know I can show you all that everything I did was pro-town. Ask me anything.<Embrace The Void>
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Which posts about Lycan?In post 3624, Shadoweh wrote:
There's a bit of difference between defending someone and trying to make someone preemptively sound like the incoming scum flip's partner, which is what I interpretted a lot of his comments towards Lycanfire as being. Especially since Lycan is 99% not a member of the scum team now. Regardless of that I think his opening post today sounded like pleading. I've been in the desperately pleading not to get lynched position though but somehow I doubt I'm going to be convinced by this train of thought. :VGamma Emerald wrote:Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?<Embrace The Void>
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Point them out, I want to look at all of them.In post 3633, Dunnstral wrote:Again, I had many opportunities to hammer what CES was pushing though, you're not looking at the full picture<Embrace The Void>
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1) Can you provide the list of all the people he's voted? I think with some lateral thinking I can disprove this point.
2) Fair, although sometimes his switches make sense (such as when he switched to scumreading me).
3) Why is trying to campaign for votes scummy? I think there could be better way of doing it (say, asking for thoughts on the case and saying if you agree vote with me) but it just seems like someone trying to lead. Plus I feel like there is a way to sort with those requests: seeing who supports and is against scum lynches.
4) Fair point, it seems Ran has been adjusting reads to what's beneficial for him.<Embrace The Void>
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1) What about other days?In post 3637, Thestatusquo wrote:
1) For yesterday the people hes voted is listed in my post under the heading "with votes".In post 3636, Gamma Emerald wrote:1) Can you provide the list of all the people he's voted? I think with some lateral thinking I can disprove this point.
2) Fair, although sometimes his switches make sense (such as when he switched to scumreading me).
3) Why is trying to campaign for votes scummy? I think there could be better way of doing it (say, asking for thoughts on the case and saying if you agree vote with me) but it just seems like someone trying to lead. Plus I feel like there is a way to sort with those requests: seeing who supports and is against scum lynches.
4) Fair point, it seems Ran has been adjusting reads to what's beneficial for him.
2) Sometimes they did, but everyones actions sometimes make sense. Like I said, switching your reads is not a scum tell. It was the way he switched his reads and how often and how he acted like his previous reads no longer even existed after he switched them. I also don't think his switch to scum reading you made much sense reading the transition. it was kind of like he was doing meta and declaring you lock town because of it and then all of a sudden he declared you as scum because of some different meta. Why was he picking and choosing meta to scum read vs town read you at different times? Am I missing something here?
3) Trying to take a lead is not inherently scummy, but the way he did it was scummy. Campaigning for votes on whatever wagon hes pushing with as far as I can tell very little lead up. One post, action dan is scummy and he wants me to lynch action dan. The next post I am scummy and he wants action dan to lynch me. These worldviews are not compatible with each other. They suggest to me that the lynch is what is important, not who it is on and not who is voting it, which I would describe as the opposite of a town mindset.
2) He wasn't picking and choosing meta, he just had different things he was connecting from this game to the others.
3) Okay fair, but I feel like if the read flipping gets explained this kinda falls by the wayside for me.<Embrace The Void>
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I guess that makes sens ebut I'm more comfortable with a Dunn lynch than a Ran lynch currentlyIn post 3642, Davsto wrote:Imo for the most part today the most popular candidates for lynch are ranmaru and Dunn - a couple of others want other players lunch but for the most part ran/dun are most popular, so the day seems to be going in the direction of ran vs dun
And Ranmaru was campaigning hard for the lynch to be between him and marquis
Imo it came across as scum awkwardly trying to get the lynch off of being between a choice between two scum?
Maybe those will be my next CES ISO ctrl-f picks<Embrace The Void>
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I looked at dunn mentions in CES' ISO and he's kinda middle-of-the-road, early posting from CES looks like scumbuddies but later looks like he's lumping Dunn in with Marquis which makes me think Dunn is town
Also does anyone still have doubts about me? cos I can quote the one post by CES that should remove those doubts very effectively<Embrace The Void>
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This. I'm not going to call this definitive but it should make you think about the idea of me being scum a bit more critically.
<Embrace The Void>
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Think about it: Lycan is already pretty much dead. By killing someone else yes that voice remains but when the next dayphase hits, that voice is gone and we're in evens. Why wouldn't scum let a conftown remain if it meant completely fucking up the main boon town got this game, which was an increase to the amount of mislynches before we lost?<Embrace The Void>
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And that is...?In post 3703, Dunnstral wrote:Shadoweh truly taking on the role of their predecessor<Embrace The Void>
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Lycan what do you think of this post?In post 3703, Dunnstral wrote:Shadoweh truly taking on the role of their predecessor<Embrace The Void>
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What? The wording here is kinda twistyIn post 3722, Lycanfire wrote:oh, i guess i didn't vote LQ, but I'm proxy voting him through whatever anti-town fucker chooses to give me their vote later.<Embrace The Void>
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Horrible. If Dan is town it strongarms him into voted Dunn. If Dan is scum with LQ Dan can just not vote anywhere else.In post 3728, LicketyQuickety wrote:Tell you what, Lycan. If Dan ends up voting someone else besides Dunn, I'll vote Dan.<Embrace The Void>
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Possibly?In post 3730, Lycanfire wrote:
Is Dan scum?In post 3729, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Horrible. If Dan is town it strongarms him into voted Dunn. If Dan is scum with LQ Dan can just not vote anywhere else.In post 3728, LicketyQuickety wrote:Tell you what, Lycan. If Dan ends up voting someone else besides Dunn, I'll vote Dan.
Anyway this assumes Dunn to be town but I'm still thinking I should
VOTE: LickityQuickety<Embrace The Void>
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Because that doesn't feel like a town post. I recall someone did a similar thing earlier and it might've been postie but just cos postie flipped town doesn't mean I'm gonna expempt you if she was the person<Embrace The Void>
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Could you use some names for clarity instead of such vagaries?In post 3734, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Or, you know, I think it's a pretty easy thing to conclude that if I am SRing one person and who is a Null slot and has been SRing another Null slot all game, and then just out of the fucking blue to vote someone else.. Yeah, you haven't thought this through as much as I have.In post 3733, Gamma Emerald wrote:Because that doesn't feel like a town post. I recall someone did a similar thing earlier and it might've been postie but just cos postie flipped town doesn't mean I'm gonna expempt you if she was the person<Embrace The Void>
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I tried, still not getting anywhere. You gonna fix the problem or are you content with making vague useless posts?In post 3738, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Should not be difficult to figure out who I mean from context.In post 3735, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Could you use some names for clarity instead of such vagaries?In post 3734, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Or, you know, I think it's a pretty easy thing to conclude that if I am SRing one person and who is a Null slot and has been SRing another Null slot all game, and then just out of the fucking blue to vote someone else.. Yeah, you haven't thought this through as much as I have.In post 3733, Gamma Emerald wrote:Because that doesn't feel like a town post. I recall someone did a similar thing earlier and it might've been postie but just cos postie flipped town doesn't mean I'm gonna expempt you if she was the person<Embrace The Void>
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Interesting, any other things from Creature?In post 3742, LicketyQuickety wrote:He gives his stamp of approval for lynchind Dunn as of (let me check)...
Last Monday at 2:00 PM<Embrace The Void>
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At least rephrase so I might be able to distinguish the two null slots, because that's part of the confusion.In post 3747, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Who have we been talking about this whole time? What people were just brought up as a duo team? What reads could I possibly be talking about when I say 2 Null reads? Common, really?In post 3744, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I tried, still not getting anywhere. You gonna fix the problem or are you content with making vague useless posts?In post 3738, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Should not be difficult to figure out who I mean from context.In post 3735, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Could you use some names for clarity instead of such vagaries?In post 3734, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Or, you know, I think it's a pretty easy thing to conclude that if I am SRing one person and who is a Null slot and has been SRing another Null slot all game, and then just out of the fucking blue to vote someone else.. Yeah, you haven't thought this through as much as I have.In post 3733, Gamma Emerald wrote:Because that doesn't feel like a town post. I recall someone did a similar thing earlier and it might've been postie but just cos postie flipped town doesn't mean I'm gonna expempt you if she was the person<Embrace The Void>
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Seriously? Is that the only thing he's said about the game?In post 3748, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Not really.In post 3745, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Interesting, any other things from Creature?In post 3742, LicketyQuickety wrote:He gives his stamp of approval for lynchind Dunn as of (let me check)...
Last Monday at 2:00 PM<Embrace The Void>
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Actually that's a gripe many have had about me in my early games, where I would vote change so quickly that my vote wasn't much for pressureIn post 3776, ActionDan wrote:VCA hasn't really yielded anything particularly fruitful so far, except reminding me that gamma loves to vote all over the place. I'm still mulling over gamma but my piliminary feelings so far are that hisvotes strike me as weak(which potentially could be a play style feature more than AI) but that there are a couple of nugents every so often that look town. I'll keep thinking about this.<Embrace The Void>
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Why?In post 3782, Shadoweh wrote:prod dodge ish, woke up slightly feverish, will post later with swift coffee injexctions
I don't think I want to vote Ran anymore today
Also I'm not finding much I feel is wrong with the scumcases I've been seeing so I'm going to try something different. Everyone give me your townreads and reasons why.<Embrace The Void>
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what the shit
UNVOTE:
while I find out what happened<Embrace The Void>
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This is sensible. Like rather than be outraged at being mislynched he seems to be outraged at being outplayed.In post 3795, Shadoweh wrote:
I think people do get angry about being lynched over people they think are scum, I don't think this is the same thing.In post 3793, Thestatusquo wrote:You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.
It's like, pre-flip rage? in an "I played so much better then you" way. I'm basically saying it sounds like he doesn't think he's scum.
...who were we talking about again<Embrace The Void>
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You know this makes sense to me as well, I've gotten the feeling throughout the game he has been sending people out on little excursion to distract from actual scumhuntingIn post 3803, Thestatusquo wrote:This is another point about you that I should have brought up. The way you ask questions and generate content doesn't feel town to me. You pick some hyper specific detail that can't actually be that relevant to anything, then you ask someone to explain it. Then you hound them to explain it until they do, usually ignoring the fact that you'd know the answer if you had just been reading the thread. It reads like someone faking scum hunting to me.
See this is why I need people to give reasons for their town reads, because Im pretty much accepting anything here at this point<Embrace The Void>
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Not really but wanted to be sureIn post 3806, Shadoweh wrote:
I was talking about Lickety, but did you have someone else you thought this applies to?In post 3804, Gamma Emerald wrote:
This is sensible. Like rather than be outraged at being mislynched he seems to be outraged at being outplayed.In post 3795, Shadoweh wrote:
I think people do get angry about being lynched over people they think are scum, I don't think this is the same thing.In post 3793, Thestatusquo wrote:You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.
It's like, pre-flip rage? in an "I played so much better then you" way. I'm basically saying it sounds like he doesn't think he's scum.
...who were we talking about again<Embrace The Void>
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Mnaaaah I need this to actually sort people so like, please do thisIn post 3820, LicketyQuickety wrote:
I don't care who is Town. Dunn needs to get lynched.In post 3819, Gamma Emerald wrote:Thanks Shea. Quick and Dunn it's your turn: describe why you townread who you townread.<Embrace The Void>
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That wasn't exactly the point, I wasn't saying that it's just that it had felt like at times with the amount of things you were asking people to go back and look at that you were muddling up the ability to look at other things. Though now that I think about it that might be a stupid judgment of the facts.In post 3833, Ranmaru wrote:
Can you explain how you think I haven't doing this? If so, what is what I've done in my previous posts?In post 3805, Gamma Emerald wrote:You know this makes sense to me as well, I've gotten the feeling throughout the game he has been sending people out on little excursion to distract fromactual scumhuntingSee this is why I need people to give reasons for their town reads, because Im pretty much accepting anything here at this point<Embrace The Void>
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I guess this is fair. Why wouldn't someone else that you accused EoD3 be more cleared by your logic than me?In post 3827, Ranmaru wrote:Let's talk about my point of view with Gamma. Remember that he (not just him though) didn't follow me on CES when I pushed for him. It rubbed me off as wrong to see Quick, then Gamma, and then you vote when you were all not interested in his wagon earlier. #3211, #3181,
#3152. Especially since I tried to gain the votes of Gamma and Quick and both weren't on board with me. That was my point of view there. CES flipping scum, makes it more likely that I was originally correct on Gamma. In the three man scum team of Shea-Quick-Gamma, he would be the one that would least likely fit in my mind (since there are only three scum and CES flipped scum), so obviously I don't think what I said meta wise the second time applies. Again, it was all sparked by Quick's weird push on me with reference to my Gamma read, but I realize now that again, I was just wrong.<Embrace The Void>
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What are you asking here?In post 3837, Lycanfire wrote:
How do you feel about the first Unholy Union wagon on Gamma of Shea-Eddie-Dan, Ranmaru? The earlier two votes dropped off, and Dan stayed. He was joined by CES, then LQ. Gamma never went past 3 votes, and those were the two wagons.
Is Gamma always scum with LQ? Start of D3 he went hard on Gamma, which I perceived as opportunism to use my hard D2 scumread on Gamma as a means to gain momentum: interestingly, LQ did the same sod2, on Postie (a CES special), and proxy-RC ended up killed not long after I said LQ never believes he hammers Eddie on a team where Postie can scream him down in daytalk for being an idiot. I don't feel like this is a viable pair.<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Since I have been asked to explain my townreads myself here's where I'm at:
Shea: Doesn't feel like he's submitting his play under any care of being examined, basically he's not trying to please anyone with his play.
Ranmaru: honestly it comes down to why. I feel like he'd be smarter with his scumplay than to so evidently flip his reads at the drop of a hat.
Shadoweh: Besides being CES' pet ML he's also shown a serious desire to solve today.
Everyone else is pretty much a suspect.
Also I just thought of something to look at, one second<Embrace The Void>
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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That's not what he's say at alllllll?In post 3858, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Why do you say I am Town for Tunneling on you when I ask you things that have been answered, but Ranmaru is Scum for those same things?In post 3857, Thestatusquo wrote:
Don't look at whether something people are doing is smart, look at who it benefits. The argument "why would x player do y its too obvious" is very often wrong, because it causes people to doubt themselves exactly like you're doing here. Plus, some people are just bad. Ranmaru has played poorly this game regardless of he's scum or town. It's not like his play is good for town to do either, and if we look at the motivation for why a player would play in the way that he has, i.e. read my case and my response to his response, we can see that the most likely motivations are all scum ones and not town ones. Same way he picks hyper specific things to ask people questions about that are ultimately irrelevant and frequently have been completely answered multiple times already. Why would town do that? I can't think of a motivation for it. Why would scum do it? There are tons of motivations there.In post 3855, Gamma Emerald wrote:Since I have been asked to explain my townreads myself here's where I'm at:
Shea: Doesn't feel like he's submitting his play under any care of being examined, basically he's not trying to please anyone with his play.
Ranmaru: honestly it comes down to why. I feel like he'd be smarter with his scumplay than to so evidently flip his reads at the drop of a hat.
Shadoweh: Besides being CES' pet ML he's also shown a serious desire to solve today.
Everyone else is pretty much a suspect.
Also I just thought of something to look at, one second<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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MaybeIn post 3864, LicketyQuickety wrote:The resistance to lynching Dunn is unreal. That is a weak reason to SR Dunn all in itself.
if you explained why everyone else is town
you might convince me<Embrace The Void>
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You seeIn post 3867, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Irrelevant. Correct play here is to lynch Dunn.In post 3866, Gamma Emerald wrote:
MaybeIn post 3864, LicketyQuickety wrote:The resistance to lynching Dunn is unreal. That is a weak reason to SR Dunn all in itself.
if you explained why everyone else is town
you might convince me
the more you post that
the more I want to votepark on you for mindlessly pushing a lynch<Embrace The Void>
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Question: who do you think Dunn's partner is? I want logic for this, solid logic.In post 3873, LicketyQuickety wrote:
More like there is Scum motive based on Dunn's votes, but sure! practically the same thing! /sIn post 3872, Shadoweh wrote:Fake news!
His read is that Dunn needs to die as evidenced by the fact that Dunn is playing very badly for town or something.<Embrace The Void>
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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This is a compelling argument actually. Gonna have to run some ISOs to determine the actual worth of this though.In post 3876, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Dunn has very little to tie them to other players because they have done very little to actually influence things. Dunn is mostly a passenger in this game. There was a strong tie to CES to Dunn in that, Dunn had a pattern of voting the same way that CES did.In post 3875, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Question: who do you think Dunn's partner is? I want logic for this, solid logic.In post 3873, LicketyQuickety wrote:
More like there is Scum motive based on Dunn's votes, but sure! practically the same thing! /sIn post 3872, Shadoweh wrote:Fake news!
His read is that Dunn needs to die as evidenced by the fact that Dunn is playing very badly for town or something.
I don't want to talk about who is partnered with Dunn because that distracts from lynching Dunn.<Embrace The Void>
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Thinking Davsto is town overall but Ranmaru am I nuts or is this what you called me for in Family Mafia?In post 2691, Davsto wrote:
It's day three, why do you have four null reads and why aren't you doing anything to fix that?In post 2594, Dunnstral wrote:I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are town
Ranmaru next tier
Cogito ergo Sum and TSQ, davsto, lycanfire are all null
northsidegal, actiondan lean scum
Marquis is scum<Embrace The Void>
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Can you explain those for me?In post 3891, LicketyQuickety wrote:So I guess my main/strongest TRs right now are:
Shea
Davsto
Gamma<Embrace The Void>
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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I'm feeling like lynching Dan. Here's why.
1) I have 4 townreads outside of Lycan fire. This means I have 3 suspects remaining.
2) LQ has been pushing Dunn very heavily today. Ireallydon't think White Flag gambit is involved here, so they shouldn't be aligned.
3) Because of 2, The main teams I'm thinking are possible are (LQ, Dan) and (Dan, Dunn). As such no matter what team comp if my townreads are right then Dan should always be scum. I want to ISO Dan before voting there because I want to make sure I'm not completely out of my mind by thinking he could be scum.<Embrace The Void>
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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At least link the post so I don't have to ISO dive?In post 3897, LicketyQuickety wrote:
I've given my reasons for TRing these people in the past. They are pretty much the same reasons.In post 3893, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Can you explain those for me?In post 3891, LicketyQuickety wrote:So I guess my main/strongest TRs right now are:
Shea
Davsto
Gamma<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 69109
- Joined: August 9, 2016
- Pronoun: Any
- Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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- Survivor
- Posts: 69109
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- Pronoun: Any
- Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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How?In post 3919, LicketyQuickety wrote:I almost want to vote gamma for being surface level.<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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- Posts: 69109
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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- Posts: 69109
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- Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)