[OLD] Open Setup Ideas and Discussion

[Micc]

This is my attempt at creating a setup that features a team of Arsonists as the informed majority.

Forest Fire

9 Player Open Setup

2 Arsonists

1 Firefighter
6 Tree-stumps

• Arsonists have a single factional night action. They may choose to prime a single target, or to ignite all previously primed targets.
  
• Firefighter blocks the priming of a target ONLY on the night in which they are being primed.
  
• Tree-stumps may talk in thread upon being lynched, but not upon being ignited.
  
• Firefighter can be primed and ignited, same as tree-stumps.
  
• Players are not told when they are primed, arsonists are not told if the priming was successful.

I'm curious to get some input on how balanced this would be. Scumhunting will be difficult without nightkills, but the Arsonists are not guaranteed to win even after three mislynches. Tree-stumps could be a benefit to the town, but also a disadvantage. Mass claim will force Arsonists to counter-claim the Firefighter or risk confirming him as town.

[Micc]

Just to clarify, the only way to become a tree stumped player in this setup would be to get lynched. Tree stumped players can talk in thread, but cannot vote and are not counted as a vote for endgame purposes.

I would allow the arsonists to use their prime on a player who has already been tree-stumped if they wish. If a Tree-stumped player has been primed (whether before or after getting lynched) and the arsonists choose to ignight, the tree-stumped player will be ignighted and will no longer be able to post in the thread.

Ill look into finding a better role name than Firefighter. I didnt think it fit all that well either, but it was the first thing that came into my head.

[Micc]

They're trees, and they leave a stump behind with chopped down (ie lynched) but not when burnt down.

Correct

[Micc]

3 Mafia Goons
4 Vanilla Townies

If a Vanilla Townie is lynched Day1, the remaining Vanilla Townies get a chance to guess the scumteam. If any of them get it right then Town wins. If all are wrong then Mafia wins. If a Mafia Goon is lynched Day1, the Mafia makes a nightkill and the game continues 2vs3.

If a Vanilla Townie is lynched Day2, then the lynched player gets a chance to guess the scumteam. If right then town win, wrong then Mafia Win. If a goon is lynched Day 2 then Town wins.

Just a thought. I havent thought very deeply about balance or breaking strategies quite yet.

I'd like to get some more opinions on breaking strategies for this setup. ZZZX and I started analyzing it but I think his breaking strategy makes too many assumptions based off reads to classify it as a breaking strategy instead of scumhunting. Then again, Im not quite sure I understand his strategy so I could be wrong.

Feel free to comment on balance as well. By my EV math (which hopefully is done right) its scumsided, but I'm somewhat ok with that considering once solid consensus town read flips the win rate significantly in favor of the town.

Spoiler: Previous Analysis

Looks aweasom but breakable

Been thinking about it, and I dont think its breakable. Only potential breaking point I can see is coordination of guesses in the case of a D1 mislynch. There are 6nCr3 = 20 possible combinations of scum teams between the remaining players. Way to many to cover between the players (i think).

A VT has a 1/5nCr3 = 0.1 = 10% chance to guess correctly after a D1 mislynch.
Assuming there is corridination thats a 30% chance town wins after D1 mislynch.

The lynched VT has a 1/3 = 33 % chance to guess correctly after a D2 mislynch.

So all together the town win rate is:
4/7 * 3/10 + 3/7 * 1/3 = 0.314 = 31.4%

Thats a bit low. Letting the lynched player make a guess after D1 mislynch improves the overall to 34.3%.

I fact that the scum team cannot quick hammer for risk of being guessed correctly makes this a pretty interesting idea.

A B C D E F


half are town
scum compinations ( ABC ABD ABE ABF ABG ACD ACF ACG ADE ADF ADG AEF AEG AFG BCD BCE BCF BCG BDE BDF BDG BEF BEG BFG CDE CDF CDG CEF CEG CFG)

if you remove a (cus u are a)
BCD BCE BCF BCG BDE BDF BEF BEG BFG CDE CDF CDG CEF CEG CFG

if every 2 players coordinated in a way to consider both of them as town: (remove b)
CDE CDF CEF (6 remains aka pick 3 out of 4)


if 3 groups of people (considering worst case senario of 2 town teams and one scum team work it up it will be a case of:)
both town group:(if existant) will have a 2/3 chance of wining it.
A: picks one compination CDE
B: picks another CDF
2 normal group like that and 2 people who freely mix thier vote between the groups

generally with a little bit of scum hunting it will be pretty fine

if its 4p then its pretty much simpler (above needs work)

a b c d

cd as scum

groups system:

one group that votes for anyone not included in group:

A-B: CD = win

1 free lancers who vote for one person in the group and the guy next to him
2nd guy votes for everyone in the group

if any of ab are scum and c is town then its a 75%
if ab are town its a 100%
if c+ someone from ab is scum the game is lost
otherwise it is won

its a case of getting a 65-70% chance of victory,

if it went into more detailed work it can be better

that is assuming a mislynch all the time.

I'm not following any of that.

Why do you use letters A-G (7 players) when there are only 6 players in play?
Where are you taking into consideration that half of the preclaimed guesses will be coming from scum and thus cannot cause the town to win?

I'm aware that the Day 2 guess is broken if the non mislynched townies are allowed to guess. Thats why I designed it for the lynched townie to be the only one who guesses.

I started to work it out on my own, but have basketball to watch so it will have to wait.

G is the dead guy

If only lynched guy can pick then its more do-able

Also in the 3v3 if scum wasn't in the group I spoke about town has a 75-80% chance of getting it right