Doing the math the chances of scum finding each other with random picks is about:
N1: 1 - ((6/7)^2) ~= 26.5%
N2: 1 - ((6/7)^2 * (4/5)^2) ~= 53%
(Numbers are slightly off since I'm not correctly accounting for how likely a n1 neighborizer target being alive n2 is)
Mostly just looking for opinions on balance (Maybe adding Bulletproof or N1 Bulletproof to scum to stop swing from NKing scum if it's too town sided, or adding 2/4 more VT if it's too scum sided)
[SETUP] Silent Night
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[SETUP] Silent Night
Plural | Nameless (They/He) and Alice (She/Her) and C (They/Them) and more-
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If they're not in the hood scum can kill each other yesPlural | Nameless (They/He) and Alice (She/Her) and C (They/Them) and more-
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Spoiler: Hand calculated EV
For ease of calculation no attempt was made to prevent scum from neighborizing someone they neighborized a previous night or to only shoot people who they've failed to neighborize. The formula used to calculate if scum neighborize for NP: (N-2 : 2) Hoodless night was:
Code: Select all
(1 - (((N-2)/(N-1))^2))*((N-2)/(N-1))
e.g. for 10P: 8-2 Hoodless night:
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(1 - ((8/9) ^ 2))*(8/9)
Implementing these strategies would make the numbers slightly more scumsided but it should be counterbalanced by the lack of scum coordination making dayplay slightly more townsided. For reference 11-2 Mountainous has a 39.5% town winrate with random lims so 7-2 is expected to be slightly more scumsided and 9-2 slightly more townsided. I'd figure a test run with 7-2 and then doing 9-2 with a n0 neighborizer action if it's too townsided would probably work finePlural | Nameless (They/He) and Alice (She/Her) and C (They/Them) and more-
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For EV calculations I don't think that multiball/SK calcs are correct here since scum want to only hit town during the night (since hitting scum always lowers their EV) whereas in multiball there's cases when you want to hit scum.In post 8, yessiree wrote: A lot of numbers to digest but from what I've gathered I don't think it's apt to compare this setup to 2:N mountainous since it plays drastically differently when 2 scums don't know each another. It's probably closer to some fringe variant of multiball or N vs 1 even night sk + 1 odd night sk depending on the NK rng
Likewise dayplay is better represented without using multiball if you run under the assumption that in that case scum will just play survivalistic d1 and then d2 onwards push town since they should be using their neighborizer ability on scummy people (either they find their partner at which point standard mountainous calcs or they find out it's town in which case it's safe to push them during the day at which point standard mountainous calcs)
D1's kind of a wildcard there as well as games where a neighborizer target dies during the night but as a rough estimate it's fine I think?
The lack of communication and organization definitely makes it more townsided until scum neighborize (since scum can accidentally bus/shoot each other/nk a pocket/etc.) but representing that in EV calcs is pretty arbitrary (Does it make scum 10% scummier? 20%? Or evenlessscummy than normal if townies are used to associative reads) so I just left it as is instead and only looked at the "Scum can NK each other" part.
It actually doesn't really matter in that case I think?
Someone'sgetting limmed that day and unless you're saying scum are inherently more likely to get limmed there it should be an even distribution when you look at EV (Just assume that scum slow-roll and justify even a hammer vote)Plural | Nameless (They/He) and Alice (She/Her) and C (They/Them) and more-
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Oh I misunderstood you mb, the EV above already takes into account the chance that scum can nightkill each otherIn post 10, yessiree wrote: For mountainous, the scum team has complete info of the identities of every town/scum players so they could only ever hit town during the night making it easy to model
For multiball, each scum team has incomplete info, so only guarantee is scum won't shoot themselves, anyone else is fair game
For this setup, it should be the same as multiball iff scum are not neighbors, and mountainous otherwise, which might not be hard to model now that I think about it
In post 10, yessiree wrote: Not talking about EV here, I just feel like it wouldn't be a proper game of mafia at that point. There are no associative reads for town to use to sort potential scum pairs which means town isn't really hunting for an informed minority, more like semi-informed team of two acting out of their own interests. So I guess town is just hunting for scummy players but then that'll have an effect in how scum approaches the game too so I think I'd prefer if the scum team becomes neighbors at ELO automatically. There is precedence where setups with unique mechanics revert to mountainous during ELOLoyal Neighborizers N2 Informedmaybe? It punishes scum for not being accurate n1 since they have to mind read their partner for the nk n2 while still letting them communicate during ELO and giving town a co-ordinated nightkill to analysePlural | Nameless (They/He) and Alice (She/Her) and C (They/Them) and more
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